Indonesia lies strategically in the intersection of the Pacific Ocean, along the Malacca Straits and the Indian ocean Leading ASEAN The onlycountry in South-east Asia that is a member of the ASEAN economic Community (aec)
Indonesia lies strategically in the intersection of the Pacific Ocean, along the Malacca Straits and the Indian ocean Leading ASEAN The onlycountry in South-east Asia that is a member of the ASEAN economic Community (aec)
Indonesia lies strategically in the intersection of the Pacific Ocean, along the Malacca Straits and the Indian ocean Leading ASEAN The onlycountry in South-east Asia that is a member of the ASEAN economic Community (aec)
INDONESIA PERSPECTIVE 9/17/2011 1 FOOD INGREDIENTS ASIA UBM (ASIA), THAILAND, 21 SEPTEMBER 2011 Chairman of GAPMMI (INDONESIAN FOOD & BEVERAGES ASSOCIATION) F I Asia in Indonesia 2010 9/17/2011 2 The Indonesian Strategic Planning, The Indonesian Strategic Planning, Economy and F&B Industry Development FACTS: Indonesia is an Archipelago Country with strategic geographic location and strong global presence Total land area Indonesia is around 1.922.570 km and sea area is around 3.257.483 km Second biggest coastline in the world with 54.716 km. +/-13.000 Islands 237.6 millions populations (SUSENAS 2010), with socio economic level :12% high, 40% medium, 48% low class Average population growth within last 10 years 1,49 % Dynamic and youthful population (55% <25 years old) 49.7 % Women, 50.3% Man (SUSENAS 2010) Population distribution : Java 57,49%, Sumatera 21,3%, INDONESIA 2011 49.7 % Women, 50.3% Man (SUSENAS 2010) Population distribution : Java 57,49%, Sumatera 21,3%, Sulawesi 7,31%, Kalimantan 5,8%, Bali /Nusa Tenggara 5,5%,andMaluku/Papua2,6%(SUSENAS2010) Estimates 30 millions Peoples have strong buying power 58%livinginrural areaand 42%inurban 87% Moslem: Hallal & Thoyyiban 480 ethnics Average expenditure for food per capita 45.69%(urban) and 58.57% (rural), with average 50.62% (BPS, 2009) Rice as a main staple food Abundance of natural resources 3. STRATEGIC GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION Indonesia lies strategically in the intersectionof the Pacific Ocean, along the Malacca Straits and the Indian ocean Over half of all international shipping travel through Indonesian waters Leading ASEAN The onlycountry in South-east Asia that is a member of G-20 Chairmanof ASEAN in 2011 An active and strong voiceof developing countries in global discussions on issues around climate change, global economy architecture, etc. Source: Supply Chain Leaders ASEAN THE NEW VISION OF INDONESIA Government set a Master Plan to accelerate economic development, called MP3EI (The Master Plan for the Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesias Economic Development). And targeted to be 12 largest in the World in 2025. Stepping up to Global Influence.... ~12 largest ~12 largest ~8 largest ~8 largest 8 9 %per annum 5 6 %per annum LOGICAL ACTION PLAN (up t o 2014) The Action Plan strategy LOGICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE MASTERPLAN 22 Main F & B F&B is one of the main economic activities in MP3EI framework 9/17/2011 8 22 Main Economic Activities FRAMEWORK OF GROWTH STRATEGY FRAMEWORK OF GROWTH STRATEGY FEED INDONESIA -FEED THE WORLD Sustainable National Food Security Sustainable National Food Security Rice, Soybean, Corn, Sugar Palm Oil, Tea Coffee, Cocoa Mango, Orange, Banana and Horticulture Cattle and Poultry Tuna and Shrimp Foreign Exchange Foreign Exchange && Labor Force Labor Force Food Self Food Self- - sufficiency sufficiency Main Commodity Grand Strategy Development of Agriculture Sector Into a Competitive and In line with Government Strategy, Indonesian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (KADIN) set a grand strategy called FI-FTW 9 Increase Value Added & Marketing Develop Domestic and Export Markets Build Indonesias Product Image and Manage the Non-Tariff Barrier Develop Downstream Industry Funding Support the Agriculture Sector Establish an Agriculture Bank Strengthen the non BankingInstitutions (Cooperatives & LKM) PanningImprovement Improve the Spatial Planning Develop the Infrastructure Focus on Prime Commodities / Develop the Competitiveness Increase Productivity Develop Natural Resources and Competent Human Resources Develop and Implement Eco Green Technology and R & D Provide access to the Technology Harmonization and Synchronization of Policies (Focused, Brief, Clear, Direct and Consistent) Roadmap (Integrated Upstream Downstream, Focus on Superior Products With High Value Added) Accurate and Updated Data Management Development of Agriculture Sector Into a Competitive and Sustainable Self-Sufficiency and Promotion of the Prime Commodities to Become the Worlds Choice 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012* GDP gowth (y-o-y, %) 6.3 6.0 4.5 6.1 6.5** 6.7*** Nominal GDP (current prices (Rp trillions) 3,951 4,949 5,604 6,423 7,019 8,373*** GDP per capita (current prices, US$) 1,938 2,270 2,590 3,005 3,520 3,906 Population (mill) 225.6 228.5 231.4 237.6 243.7 249.0 Open unemployment rate (%) 9.8 8.6 7.9 7.6 7.0 6.7*** Inflation rate (%, year end) 6.6 11.2 2.8 7.0 4.61*** 5.3*** BI rate (%, year end) 8.00 9.25 6.50 6.50 6.75** 6.50 Key Strengths Fiscal balance (%of GDP) -1.3 -0.1 -1.6 -1.0 -1.2 -1.5 Public debt (%of GDP) 35.2 33.0 29.5 28.3 26.4 25.0 Currrency (Rp/US$, average) 9,163 9,756 10,356 9,080 8,514** 8,800*** Current account balance (%of GDP) 2.4 0.1 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 Reserves (US$ billions) 56.9 52.1 66.1 96.2 123.2** * 130.0 S&P's Rating BB- BB- BB- BB BB+ BBB- **Semester 1 2011 ***July 2011 (President speech 16 August 2011, RAPBN 2012) . Source: Bappenas, BPS Steady GDP growth 5.5 6.3 6.1 4.5 6.1 6.5 5.7 6.2 5.8 6.5 6.5 6.5 06 07 08 '09 '10 est '11 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Source: BPS, Bank of Indonesia Passing GDP per capita USD 3000 Break USD 4000 Break USD 3000 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 10 11 12 13 14 Break USD 1000 Break USD 2000 USD 3000 Source: BPS Inflation is kept low 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 % Food Material Processed Food General January July 2011 inflation rate at 4.61 % 9/17/2011 9/17/2011 13 13 Source: BPS, Kemenperin - 2.0 4.0 6.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year General Category % Output % Number of establishment Big & Medium 86,79 0.52 F&B industry is dominated by Small and Home Industry (SMEs), however they onlycontributed less than 15% Are they ready to survive in the competition of global market? Small 5,69 5,71 Home Industry 7,52 93,77 Source:BPS, Sensus2008 Year RP (Trillions) 2007 402 2008 526,6 2009 586 F&B industry output is estimated at about USD 80 billion OUTPUT F&B (BPS, estimated by GAPMMI): 2009 586 2010 605 2011* 684 *Target, estimated growth 5 13 % Industrial growth 2011 (y-o-y semester 1) Sector Growth (%) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Economic Growth 5,69 5,50 6,35 6,01 4,58 6,10 6,49 Manufacturing industry 4.60 4.59 4.67 3.66 2.11 4.53 6.10 Non Oil & Gas Industry 5,86 5,27 5,15 4,05 2,56 5,09 6,61 F&B +Tobacco 2.75 7.21 5.05 2.34 11.29 2.73 9.34 Wood & Other Forest Industry (0.92) (0.66) (1.74) 3.45 (1.46) (3.50) 3.01 2011 F&B industrial growth estimated at 9.34% The sector that always kept positive growth within last 5 years Source : BPSdan Kementerian Perindustrian Wood & Other Forest Industry (0.92) (0.66) (1.74) 3.45 (1.46) (3.50) 3.01 Paper & Printing 2.39 2.09 5.79 (1.48) 6.27 1.64 3.87 Fertilizer, Chemicals & Rubber 8.77 4.48 5.69 4.46 1.51 5.17 6.62 Cement & Non-Metal Mineral 3.81 0.53 3.40 (1.49) (0.63) 2.16 5.66 Textile, Leather & Footwear 1.31 1.23 (3.68) (3.64) 0.53 1.74 8.03 Base Metal, Iron & Steel (3.70) 4.73 1.69 (2.05) (4.53) 2.56 15.48 Transport equipment, Machinery & Equipment 12.38 7.55 9.73 9.79 (2.94) 10.35 4.41 Others 2.61 3.62 (2.82) (0.96) 3.13 2.98 6.21 7,099 8,357 7,498 7,775 8,129 8,542 8,155 7,960 7,462 8,085 7,442 7,916 7,632 6,727 7,268 7,181 7,677 7,198 Modern packaged food has grown double digit in 2011 Retail Audit: Indonesia Total Grocery | Food Department 8.8 8.4 9.6 9.8 11.7 8.2 11.8 12.4 7.1 1.5 12.7 10.9 13.9 10.9 11.9 10.8 11.9 13.3 Jan- 10 Feb- 10 Mar - 10 Apr - 10 May- 10 Jun- 10 Jul- 10 Aug- 10 Sep- 10 Oct- 10 Nov- 10 Dec- 10 Jan- 11 Feb- 11 Mar - 11 Apr- 11 May- 11 Jun- 11 Sales Growth vs. Last Year Sales Value (in billion) Source: Nielsen Indonesia -0.4 12.8 4.3 4.4 6.3 16.5 5.7 6.8 7.0 Volume Growth % Value Growth % Retail Audit: Indonesia Grocery | Top 10 | Volume & Value Growth % | Jan-Jun 2011 vs. YA Instant Noodles Powder Milk Coffee Biscuit Detergent F&B categories have been growing steady 4.4 21.3 3.8 5.3 -0.4 2.0 2.0 45.9 13.6 6.4 11.3 6.3 Value Growth % Detergent Cooking Oil Sweetened Condensed Milk Shampoo Toilet Soap Skincare Source: Nielsen Indonesia 11.0 -0.4 5.5 22.9 17.1 5.5 13.5 27.0 14.7 12.2 Volume Growth % Tea-RTD Liquid Milk Snack Toothpaste Baby Diapers Retail Audit: Indonesia Grocery | Top 20 | Volume & Value Growth % | Jan-Jun 2011 vs. YA Convenient and Healthy categories grow faster 1.6 1.5 0.5 -6.9 1.9 -1.1 8.6 0.4 2.1 6.6 27.0 Value Growth % Stock Soup Insectici des Energy Drink Non Powder Detergent Cologne Source: Nielsen Indonesia Contribution by Sector in Manufacturing Industry 2005 2010 (%) F&B manufacturing sector has increased contribution Source : BPS, 2011 F&B and Tobacco Investment Realization By Sector Year 2010In Indonesia Transportations, Storage & Telecommunications (US$. billion) Food Crops and Plantation Food Industry Transportations, Storage& Telecommunications Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Other Services Food industry is ranked 2 nd in domestic investment realization and 5 th in FDI realization 21 DomesticInvestment: Food Crops & Plantation (208 projects worth US$ 3,22 billion); Food Industry (46 projects worth US$ 1,84 billion); Transportations, Storage&Telecommunications(238projectsworthUS$1,55billion); Electricity, Gas&WaterSupply (47 projectsworthUS$0,55billion); andOtherServices(92projectsworthUS$0,37billion). ForeignInvestment: Transportations, Storage&Telecommunications(154projectsworthUS$. 5.0billion); Mining(298projectsworthUS$. 2.2 billion); Electricity, Gas&WaterSupply(59projectsworthUS$. 1.4billion); Real Estate, Industrial Estate&OfficeBuilding (89 projectsworthUS$. 1.1 billion), andFoodIndustry(250projectsworthUS$. 1.0 billion). (US$ 1 =IDR 8.900,-) (US$. billion) Telecommunications Mining Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Real Estate, Industrial Estate & Office Building Food Industry Source : BKPM Domestic food industry has realized 1.7T IDR investment in Q1 2011 and higher investment in Q2 2011 - 2.9T IDR Sector Q1 (Trillions Rp)/ % Sector Q2 (Trillions Rp)/ % Transport, Storage & Communication 4.3/30.9 Food Crops and Plantation 3.1/ 16.6 Non Metal Mineral 2.3/ 16.7 Food Industry 2.9/15.2 9/17/2011 22 Source : BKPM Non Metal Mineral Industry 2.3/ 16.7 Food Industry 2.9/15.2 Food Industry 1.7/ 12 Paper & Printing Industry 2.7/ 14.1 Electricity, Gas, and Water 1.6/ 11.6 Metal, Machinery & Electronic Industry 1.9/ 10.3 Food Crops and Plantation 1.4/ 9.9 Transport, Storage & Communication 1.7 / 9 Others 4.3/ 30.9 Others 6.6/ 34.9 Sector Q1 (USD Billions)/ % Sector Q2 (USD Billions)/ % Mining 1.0/ 23.2 Mining 1.5/ 31.5 Electricity, Gas, and Water 0.6/ 13.8 Chemical & Pharmaceutical industry 0.6/ 13.0 FDI Food Industry sector reached USD 0.3B in Q1 2011 and add USD 0.27B in Q2 2011 9/17/2011 23 Water Pharmaceutical industry Transport, Storage & Communication 0.6/ 13.5 Metal, Machinery & Electronic Industry 0.5/ 11.4 Food Crops and Plantation 0.4/ 9.6 Transport, Storage & Communication 0.5/ 9.6 Food Industry 0.3/ 6.8 Trade & Repairs 0.4/ 7.9 Others 1.4/ 33.1 Others (Food Industry) 1.3/ 26.6 (0.27/ 5.5) Source : BKPM Others US$ 2.2 B Netherland $ 0.6 B Singapore US$ 0.8 B Singapore, Netherland and USA are top 3 foreign direct investor Japan US$ 0.4 B USA US$ 0.6 B South Korea US$ 0.2 B Source : BKPM World Investment Prospects Survey 2008 2012 of the most attractive economies for the location of FDI conducted by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) No. Countries Ratings (Period of Year) 2010-2012 2009-2011 2008-2010 1. China 1 1 1 2. India 2 3 2 3. Brazil 3 4 5 4. USA 4 2 3 5. Russia 5 5 4 6. Mexico 6 12 11 7. Inggris 7 6 12 8. Vietnam 8 11 6 9. Indonesia 9 9 8 Indonesia was ranked 9 th as major destination for FDI. This result was based on UNCTAD survey whose respondents are 25 10. Germany 10 7 7 11. Thailand 11 n/a n/a 12. Poland 12 13 13 13. Australia 13 8 n/a 14. France 14 14 15 15. Malaysia 15 n/a n/a 16. Japan 16 n/a n/a 17. Canada 17 10 10 18. Chile 18 n/a n/a 19. South Afrika 19 n/a n/a 20. Spain 20 n/a n/a 9. Indonesia 9 9 8 on UNCTAD survey whose respondents are executives of Transnational Corporations (TNC) from developed and/or developing countries. UNCTAD consists of 193 member economies or countries. Source: World Investment Prospects Survey 2010 2012, UNCTAD Key Challenges: Key Challenges: Natural resources potential, Changes in Consumers habit & Market , Food Safety, Regulation & Trade Channel Development Indonesia has a huge potential resources of Agriculture Commodity. Position Rank in The World as follow: Rank (in the World, by Quantity) Agro Commodity 1 Kapokseed in Shell, Cloves ,Palm oil, Palm kernels, Kapok Fibre, Cinnamon (canella), Coconuts Leeks, other alliaceous veg, Vanilla 2 Cocoa beans, Nuts nes, Beans green, Natural rubber, Pepper (Piper spp.) 3 Roots and Tubers nes, Rice paddy, Papayas, Sugar crops nes, Ginger , Other bird eggs,in shell 4 Manila Fibre (Abaca), Avocados, Pineapples, Coffee green, Chillies and peppers green, Sweet potatoes, Cassava, Mangoes, mangosteens, guavas, Fruit, tropical fresh nes 9/17/2011 27 mangosteens, guavas, Fruit, tropical fresh nes 5 Maize, Fruit Fresh Nes ,Spinach, Nutmeg, mace and cardamoms , Arecanuts 6 Bananas, Cashew nuts with shell, Tobacco unmanufactured, Eggplants (aubergines) 7 Tea , Indigenous Chicken Meat, Cabbages and other brassicas 8 Maize green, Groundnuts with shell , Hen eggs in shell 9 Indigenous Goat Meat 10 Oranges, Cucumbers and gherkins, Beans dry, Mushrooms and truffles, Indigenous Buffalo Meat Source: FAO Statistical Yearbook 2009 Commodity Target 2010 (millions mTon) Achievement2010 (millions mTon) World Rank Rice,paddy 34,9 36,3 3 Corn 16,5 17,8 8 Soybean 1,0 0,908*** 11 WhiteCrystal Sugar 3,3 2,7 3 RefinedSugar 1,5 2,4 n.a CPO 23,6 19,8 1 Tea 0,154 0,150 7 Coffee 0,754 0,680 4 Cocoa 0,855 0.661 2 Production of some potential commodities in Indonesia 9/17/2011 28 Cocoa 0,855 0.661 2 BlackPepper n.a 0.022** 2 Nutmeg n.a 0.0075** 1 Chili n.a 1,3** 4 Fruit&vegetable n.a 9,096 15 Milk n.a 1,238 65 Chickenmeat n.a 1,527*** 7 HenEgg n.a 1,059*** 8 Cowmeat n.a 408 19 Fish&Seafood 9,7 10,862 1 in South East Asia**** Based on FAO Statistical Yearbook 2009 , KADIN and other sources ** estimated ***FAO, 2009 ****SEAFDEC, 2008 However, still need to import some commodities to fulfill National requirement COMMODITY +/-PER YEAR (MTON)* WHEAT 4.669.475** CORN 1.500.000 SOYBEAN 900.000 GREEN BEAN 300.000 CASSAVA (dried) 900.000 GROUNDNUTS 195.000 9/17/2011 29 GROUNDNUTS 195.000 MILK 2.700.000 BEEF 75.000 Raw Sugar 2.400.000 SALT for consumption (depend on seasons) 775.011** *estimated **2010 The Global Competitiveness Index 2010-2011 rankings and 2009-2010 comparisons (139 Countries) Unfortunately, Indonesia GCI in the # 54 of 139 Countries in the year 2010/2011, even better than year 2011 World Economic Forum even better than year 2009/2010. Challenges for Indonesia to improve competitiveness Indonesia in rank #5 within ASEAN The Global Competitiveness Index 2010-2011 rankings Within Developing Asia & ASEAN 9/17/2011 31 2011 World Economic Forum INFORMATION ERA INFORMATION ERA (CONNECTED & TECHNOLOGY) (CONNECTED & TECHNOLOGY) EDUCATION EDUCATION SOCIAL STATUS & LIFE STYLE SOCIAL STATUS & LIFE STYLE New Consumerism New Consumerism Point of Point of view/ food view/ food Challenges ahead for food industry is that market & consumer is changed 32 32 SOCIAL STATUS & LIFE STYLE SOCIAL STATUS & LIFE STYLE New Consumerism New Consumerism HEALTH CONCIOUS HEALTH CONCIOUS RELIGIOUS RELIGIOUS DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION CONVENIENCE CONVENIENCE view/ food view/ food value value Digital technology change all aspect of life style Digital technology change all aspect of life style Every incident quickly known around the world Every incident quickly known around the world Consumers behaviors Consumers behaviors Some cases in food business: Some cases in food business: Dioxin , Dioxin , Ukrainian Presidential candidate (2004) Melamine case in China (2008) Melamine case in China (2008) PDMS and TBHQ (anti-foaming agent) Mc-nugget in China (2010) Nitrite milk scandal in China (2011) Nitrite milk scandal in China (2011) TREND INFORMATION ERA With digital/communication technology development will make the world to be more connected 9/17/2011 33 Nitrite milk scandal in China (2011) Nitrite milk scandal in China (2011) EHEC cucumber in Germany (2011) EHEC cucumber in Germany (2011) DEHP in Food Products Taiwan (2011) DEHP in Food Products Taiwan (2011) EE- -purchase, e purchase, e--procurement & e procurement & e- -trade change marketing system trade change marketing system accelerating accelerating order process & sales order process & sales Digital promotion , website, Hoax ,etc Digital promotion , website, Hoax ,etcboosting sales & knowledge boosting sales & knowledge . But, . But, sometimes also spread misleading information (black campaign) quickly and will sometimes also spread misleading information (black campaign) quickly and will impact to sales impact to sales EDUCATION, SOCIAL STATUS & LIFE STYLE, HEALTH CONSCIOUS & RELIGIOUS: EDUCATION, SOCIAL STATUS & LIFE STYLE, HEALTH CONSCIOUS & RELIGIOUS: More educated, well More educated, well--knowledge knowledge higher desire higher desire Higher social status & lifestyle Higher social status & lifestyle higher demand of high end product higher demand of high end product new consumerism new consumerism More health conscious More health conscious promotion claim: promotion claim: High fiber, High fiber, Education changed lifestyle 9/17/2011 34 High fiber, High fiber, Low cholesterol, Low cholesterol, Added vitamin, mineral, Omega Added vitamin, mineral, Omega- -3, etc 3, etc Nutrition Facts Nutrition Facts Functional food Functional food Higher Higher awareness of religiosity awareness of religiosity Hallal, etc Hallal, etc Awareness of Food Safety Awareness of Food Safety Then, food business is regulated more strict in all over the world. More developed Then, food business is regulated more strict in all over the world. More developed the country, more strict the regulation the country, more strict the regulation Newconsumerism Willingness to pay little extra for quality as a force that encourages product differentiation and thereby feeds investment in production and thereby feeds investment in production and marketing of new goods Murphy, Shleifer and Vishny (1989) Source: The Rise of Asias Middle Class Educated Consumers are more aware of Packaging label 9/17/2011 36 Nutrition Facts Hallal Waste concerned Even though Delicious High Nutrition If Not Safe No Value Challenges on Food Quality and Safety 37 37 Food Safety Quality Standard Healthy & Functional Food Back to Nature Food Additives concern Label Hallal/ Khouzier Convenience Local & Global Trade consideration garbage Concerning about Quality & Food Safety Integrated System (Traceability) HACCP Production facility Farming Post Harvests handling Processing Distribution Market Consumer FROM FARM FROM STABLE TO FORK TO TABLE 38 38 Notes : HACCP = HAZARD ANALYSIS CRITICAL CONTROL POINT GFP = Good Farming Practices GDP = Good Distribution Practices GHP = Good Handling Practices GRP = Good Retailing Practices GMP = Good Manufacturing Practices GCP = Good Catering Practices handling GFP GHP GMP GDP GRP GCP Harvest Post Harvest Mutual Recognition Arrangement (MRA) Pre Harvest Low quality raw material Low quality raw material Low quality Low quality Careless handling, etc Careless handling, etc Low processing cond. Low processing cond. choosing low material choosing low material bad sanitation bad sanitation low processing, handling,etc low processing, handling,etc Food Safety Critical Point Management SAFE VS COST 39 39 Bad packaging Bad packaging choose wrong pack choose wrong pack bad packaging process,etc bad packaging process,etc Bad storage/ distribution/ retail Bad storage/ distribution/ retail bad temperature control bad temperature control bad humidity control bad humidity control bad handling,etc. bad handling,etc. Food Safety SAFE VS COST Food Safety Peoples Welfare Food Safety is important with higher Socio Economic Status Developed Countries have talked about Food Safety , while some other Underdeveloped Countries still talking about Food Availability Transformation of the social status will encourage the business potential Indonesia status? ASEAN status? Food Availability Food Acceptability Food Accessibility business potential Indonesian Middle Class has grown 50 million since 2003 to become 131 million people in 2010 Class Expenditure 2003 2010 (US$ per day) (%) population (%) population Low <$ 1,25 21.9 14.0 $ 1,25 $ 2 40.3 29.3 Middle $ 2 -$ 4 32.1 37.6 36.5 54.5 $ 4 -$ 6 3.9 11.7 $ 6 -$ 10 1.3 5.0 $ 10 -$ 20 0.3 1.3 High >$ 20 0.1 0.2 "The Rise of Asia's Middle Class 2010" by ADB : within last 10 years, middle class growth very fast from 25% or 45 millions in 1999 to become 42.7% or 93 millions in 2009. While poor people decreased from 171 millions to 123 millions. By 2025, Indonesia will be among six major emerging economies to account for more than half of all global growth, says a new World Bank report. Other emerging economies include Brazil, China, India, South Korea, and Russia, and as economic power shifts, these countries will help drive growth in lower income countries through more commercial and financial transactions. With a growing middle class in developing countries, consumption trends are likely to strengthen, and eventually become a source of sustained global growth Source: Susenas, BPS, World Bank report 2011 High >$ 20 0.1 0.2 DISTRIBUTION, CONVENIENCE : DISTRIBUTION, CONVENIENCE : Consumers demand more quick services, comfortable & convenience store Consumers demand more quick services, comfortable & convenience store Growth of modern market is higher than traditional Growth of modern market is higher than traditional Young family , small family, & working people Young family , small family, & working people changing habits of changing habits of consumption consumption Changing Changing style & size of packaging style & size of packaging Lifestyle changes demand a change in product, services and distribution system, etc. 9/17/2011 42 Indonesia market is dominated by traditional stores and both are growing in numbers Shop type Universe 2010 Hypermarket 154 Supermarket 1,076 Minimarket 16,922 Impulse 108,567 Provision stores 2,297,592 Pasar Food Prep 12,936 Pasar RTC 6,134 Semi Retailer 55,120 Source: Nielsen Indonesia 82.9 82.1 81.5 80.7 80.4 80.8 79.8 76.2 74.5 Trade Channel Contribution | Total 56 Categories including cigarette However in term of sales value, modern contribute to about 25% of the market 17.1 17.9 18.5 19.3 19.5 19.3 20.2 23.8 25.5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* Traditional Stores Modern Stores 17.1% 25.5% *55 Cats (Jaguar) + Cigarette (Legacy) Source: Nielsen Indonesia YTD 2011 modern channel is still driver of the growth of total market 11.1 Total Indonesia Trade Channel Value (Rp) Growth | Total 55 Categories | YTD 2011 vs. YA 8.2 15.6 Modern Trade Traditional Stores Source: Nielsen Indonesia Modern Trade/Mini Market Traditional Market FMCG is shifting to modern distribution 9/17/2011 46 Traditional Market Old Style Traditional Market New Style Modern Market However for fresh food, the wet market is still a preferred channel by consumer 9/17/2011 47 The art of purchase with bargain Interaction Seller -Buyer More hygienic, convenience Fixed Price Some of Modern Super Market/ Hypermarket in Indonesia Foreign investor enter to Indonesian market because of potential market. Indonesia is #4 largest 9/17/2011 48 largest population in the world. Soon, Metro Germany will enter to Indonesia market Traditional Modern / Global Modern premise may influence but not necessary eliminate traditional Lifestyle for modern Young generation 9/17/2011 49 generation 24 hours Mini Market is combined 24 hours Gasoline Station with Mini A New Trend, new demandmore convenient &services for Consumers 9/17/2011 50 24 hours Mini Market is combined with Caf shop (upstairs) 24 hours Gasoline Station with Mini Market 24 hours with Wi-Fi services INDONESIA REGULATION , RELATED TO FOOD INDUSTRY, QUALITY & FOOD SAFETY UU No. 2/ 1966 : Hygiene Law UU No. 2 /1981 : Metrology Law Decree of Ministry of Health 722/Menkes/Per/88: Food Ingredients UU No. 7 /1996 : Food Law UU No. 8 /1999 : Consumer Protection Law PP No. 69/1999 : Label & Advertisement PP No.102/2000 : National Standard UU No. 18 /2002 : National System for Research & Development and Technology Law Decree of Ministry of Industry & Trade No.753/MPP/Kep/11/2002: Monitoring SNI Local Government Decree DKI No.8/2004: Food Safety PP No. 28/2004 : Food Safety, Quality & Food Nutrition PP No. 68/2004 : Food Security 51 51 PP No. 68/2004 : Food Security SK Ka. BPOM nomor 11/ 2004 : General Guidance for Food Labeling Decree of Ministry of Industry RI 24/M-IND/PER/5/2006 : Production Monitoring & the Usage of Hazardous Material for Industry UU N0. 18/2009 : Livestock & Animal health Per Ka BPOM No. HK.00.06.1.52.4011 28Oct09 : Determination Limit of Microbial and chemical contaminants in food UU No. 36/2009 : Health Law Decree of Ministry of Industry24/M-IND/Per/2/2010: Tara Code on Food Label and Plastic Packaging Recycling Decree of Ministry of Industry 75/M-IND/PER/7/2010: Mandatory of GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICES SE Ka. BPOM HK.05.01.1.52.09.10.8502 : Application of Food Label Terms Regulation from Ministry of Trade (Trade Goods Monitoring)RECALL Regulation from Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Fishery & Marine Affairs (S & P, etc) 1. Liability to obtain Distribution Licenses from BPOM/NADFC* (before selling to market) : A. No MD : For Domestic Product B. No PIRT : For Domestic Product (SMEs) C. No ML : For Import Product 2. Mandatory use Label in Bahasa Indonesia 3. HALLAL : Voluntary 4. Market Monitoring/Control: A. BPOM (National) & Balai POM (Province & District) B. Direktorat Pengawasan Barang Beredar (Ministry of Trade) C. Tim Terpadu Pengawasan Barang Beredar (Tim TPBB) (Trade Minister Decree No: 780/M-DAG/KEP/10/2008. (Task Force to control Goods in Market) Protection for Consumers *NADFC =National Agency of Drug and Food Control 1. Trade Minister Decree No. 56/2008 , jo. No. 60/2008, jo. No. 23/2010 : Import Product under Control (including Food Product) through Specific Port (Belawan ,Medan; Tanjung Priok ,Jakarta; Tanjung Emas ,Semarang; Tanjung Perak, Surabaya; Soekarno Hatta , Makassar; Dumai, Dumai; Jayapura and InternasionalAirport). Expired 31 December 2010 and extended by 2. Trade Minister Decree No.57/2010 (expired 31 December 2012) 3. Trade Minister DecreeNo.54/M-DAG/PER/10/2009 , 45/M-DAG/PER/9/2009, 17/M- DAG/PER/3/2010 (Import Requirement :API, IT, IP, etc) Import Monitoring Towards Global Market & AEC 2015 EVOLUTION OF TRADE IN THE WORLD Global Condition of Food Trade: Borderless Less Tariff Barrier More non-tariff barrier/measure on Food safety and quality Food Regulation as a protection to Consumers & Local Industry Product competitiveness is depend on how to manage Food Safety as an advantage to the market Global Condition of Food Trade: Borderless Less Tariff Barrier More non-tariff barrier/measure on Food safety and quality Food Regulation as a protection to Consumers & Local Industry Product competitiveness is depend on how to manage Food Safety as an advantage to the market expanding to Eastern Europe Main Regional FTA NAFTA Population: 445 million GDP: US$15.857 trillion EU Population: 491 million GDP: US$ 14.38 trillion CHINA Population: 1.330 billion GDP PPP: US$ 6.991 trillion JAPAN Population: 127 million GDP PPP: US$ 4.29 trillion FTA Canada Chile 1997 FTA : Chile Mexico 1999 FTA : USA Chile 2004 FTA : USA Singapore 2004 FTA : USA Australia 2005 FTA : Mexico Japan 2005 FTA : Chile Brunei NZ Singapore 2006 NAFTA U.S.A., Canada, Mexico ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Japan-Korea FTA (under negotiation) Japan-Mexico EPA (signed agreement) EU-MEXICO FTA EU 27 countries ACP-EU Countries in Africa Japan-Korea-China FTA (under negotiation) expanding to Latin America Source : CIA Factbook (2007) ASEAN Population: 575.5 million GDP: US$ 3.431 billion MERCOSUR Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay FTAA (by 2005) under negotiation SAPTA Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka China - ASEAN FTA Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP) Japans Bilaterals: Japan-Singapore EPA Japan-Philippines EPA Japan-Thailand EPA Japan-Malaysia EPA Japan-Indonesia EPA AFTA Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia India - ASEAN FTA II CECA Countries in Africa and the Caribbean (approx. 70 countries) Japan- Mexico EPA (signed agreement) Australia-New Zealand-ASEAN FTA Korea - ASEAN FTA Source : CIA Factbook (2007) Bilateral Negotiation and Preparation (in progress) 1. Indonesia - EFTA President RI and President Switzerland, July 8 th 2008 2. Indonesia India President RI President of India, Jan 2011 1. Trade in Goods (TIG) 2. Rules of Origin (ROO) 3. Trade Remedies 4. Trade in Services (TIS) 5. Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) 56 56 3. Indonesia Australia President RI and President of Australia, Nov 2 nd 2010 4. Indonesia EU President RI and President of EU Commission, Dec 2009 6. Government Procurement 7. Technical Cooperation / Capacity Building 8. Other Issues 9. Legal Text AEC 2015 Single market and production base Highly competitive region Region of equitable economic development Integration into the global economy POPULATION 0F ASEAN PLUS into one big region, will transform market to be a huge potential in the world (more than 50%of population in the world) Rank Country / Territory Population Date of estimate %of World population Source 4 Indonesia 237,556,363 May 2010 3.42% 2010 Indonesian Census 12 Philippines 94,013,200 Mid-2010 1.35% National Statistics Office medium projection 13 Vietnam 87,375,000 2011 1.26% Official estimate 19 Thailand 67,041,000 July 1, 2010 0.97% Key Statistics of Thailand, 2009, (Population projections). National Statistics Office of Thailand 26 Myanmar 47,963,000 2010 0.73% UN estimate for 2010 44 Malaysia 27,565,821 2010 0.4% The 2010 Population and HousingCensus (Census 2010) 1 China n2 1,339,724,852 November 1, 2010 19.3% 2010 China Census 2 India 1,210,193,422 March 1, 2011 17.44% Provisional 2011 Indian Census result 10 Japan 127,950,000 June 1, 2011 1.84% Official Japan Statistics Bureau 25 South Korea 48,988,833 2011 0.71% Statistics Korea 51 Australian5 22,688,987 August 26, 2011 0.33% Australian Official Population Clock 123 New Zealand 4,414,700 August 26, 2011 0.064% Official New Zealand Population clock 44 Malaysia 27,565,821 2010 0.4% The 2010 Population and HousingCensus (Census 2010) 69 Cambodia 13,395,682 March 3, 2008 0.19% Cambodian 2008 Census 104 Laos 6,230,200 2010 0.09% Official estimate 116 Singapore 5,076,700 June 30, 2010 0.073% Statistics Singapore 173 Brunei 399,000 2010 0.006% UN estimate for 2010 Rank Country GDP (millions of USD) World 62,909,274 People's Republic of China 5,878,257 Japan 5,458,872 South Korea 1,007,084 ASEAN 1,843,846 1 Indonesia 706,735 2 Thailand 318,850 List of ASEAN countries GDP (nominal), International Monetary Fund 2010 estimates. Contribution of ASEAN Plus: 29.60 % of the World GDP 9/17/2011 59 2 Thailand 318,850 3 Malaysia 237,959 4 Singapore 222,699 5 Philippines 188,719 6 Vietnam 103,574 7 Burma 35,646 8 Brunei 11,963 9 Cambodia 11,360 10 Laos 6,341 Huge Potential NEGARA Total Jan -Des 2010 % Total Jan -Juni 2010 % Total Jan -Juni 2011 % Perubahan total Jan - Mei 2011 vs Jan - Juni 2010 (%) SINGAPORE 18,594,124.95 8.61% 7,557,698.96 7.76% 8,885,102.96 7.89% 17.56% MALAYSIA 36,560,417.14 16.92% 15,805,997.71 16.24% 27,817,515.12 24.70% 75.99% THAILAND 34,263,024.06 15.86% 14,069,305.50 14.45% 11,470,218.87 10.18% -18.47% VIETNAM 806,493.46 0.37% 167,311.81 0.17% 1,444,108.13 1.28% 763.12% PHILIPPINES 10,124,127.46 4.69% 5,254,819.12 5.40% 6,604,477.15 5.86% 25.68% Import of Packaged Food Product through Special Port Zone. Unfortunately, data showed that import value is increased significantly 9/17/2011 60 PHILIPPINES 10,124,127.46 4.69% 5,254,819.12 5.40% 6,604,477.15 5.86% 25.68% sub total 100,348,187.07 46.45% 42,855,133.10 44.02% 56,221,422.23 49.91% 31.19% CHINA 31,121,990.92 14.40% 15,086,438.47 15.50% 14,506,477.82 12.88% -3.84% HONGKONG 8,073,001.67 3.74% 4,019,169.73 4.13% - 0.00% -100.00% sub total 39,194,992.59 18.14% 19,105,608.20 19.63% 14,506,477.82 12.88% -24.07% NEGARA LAINNYA 76,508,033.60 35.41% 35382502.49 36.35% 41,910,527.14 37.21% 18.45% TOTAL 216,051,213.26 100.00% 97,343,243.79 100.00% 112,638,427.19 100.00% 15.71% Source : Kemendag No. COUNTRY Export Import 2010 Jan-May 2011 2010 Jan-May 2011 Value (US$) Value (US$) Value (US$) Value (US$) 1BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 10,058,998 5,481,151 0 0 2CAMBODIA 173,427,484 76,937,038 684,169 217,800 3LAO 0 0 0 0 4MALAYSIA 881,372,960 383,393,955 301,014,176 156,217,386 5MYANMAR 1,887,581 2,362,399 0 0 6PHILIPPINES 290,964,189 100,154,459 16,129,712 10,012,868 7SINGAPORE 280,046,449 101,187,340 68,544,628 29,956,561 Trade value is still very small compared to its potential All F&B Trade between INDONESIA -ASEAN 9/17/2011 61 7SINGAPORE 280,046,449 101,187,340 68,544,628 29,956,561 8THAILAND 105,898,492 53,510,761 625,369,913 501,344,088 9VIET NAM 93,159,927 36,941,605 6,816,953 5,639,511 Total 1,836,816,080 759,968,708 1,018,559,551 703,388,214 Source: BPS, calculated by Ministry of Trade Still plenty of ROOM to improve Trade and exploit the Potential Keep developing new product & innovation to produce Added Value Product, exotic, etc. Thus this kind of exhibition is valuable to be visited , exploring new items , more competitive items substitution, etc. PROCESSED FOODS ITEMS IMPORTED BY INDONESIA FROM ASEAN 2006-2011 (as of 23 Aug 2011) Malaysia products dominate the products imported in Indonesia Food Category PHIL MAL SIN THAI VIET TOTAL ASEAN* 1. Dairy products and analogues 34 187 47 44 2 314 2. Fats, oils and Fat emulsions - 39 68 4 - 111 3. Edible ices - 22 - 1 - 23 4. Fruits and vegetables 6 172 112 259 1 550 5. Confectionery 37 788 44 152 17 1,038 6. Cereals and cereal products 43 1,362 157 232 16 1,810 7. Bakery wares - 1 3 - 1 5 62 Source: BPOM, 2011 7. Bakery wares - 1 3 - 1 5 8. Meat and meat products - 90 19 - 8 117 9. Fish and fish products 1 186 33 76 2 298 10. Eggs and eggproducts - - - - - - 11. Sweeteners, includinghoney 11 9 3 2 - 25 12. Salts, spices, soups, sauces, salads, protein products 4 260 202 120 14 600 13. Foodstuffs intended for particular nutritional uses 15 35 5 17 - 72 14. Beverages, excludingdairy products 21 687 287 89 6 1,090 15. Ready-to-eat savouries 7 458 79 190 7 741 16. Composite foods 3 8 27 - 2 40 TOTAL FOOD ITEMSIMPORTED 182 4,304 1,086 1,186 76 6,834 PROCESSED FOODS ITEMS IMPORTED BY INDONESIA From ASEAN & Other Countries 2006-2011 (as of 23 Aug 2011; BPOM, 2011) ASEAN product take portion of 32.92 % Food Category ASEAN Others Total 1. Dairy products and analogues 314 575 889 2. Fats, oils and Fat emulsions 111 383 494 3. Edible ices 23 27 50 4. Fruits and vegetables 550 1,453 2,003 5. Confectionery 1,038 1,841 2,879 6. Cereals and cereal products 1,810 3,035 4,845 7. Bakery wares 5 4 9 63 7. Bakery wares 5 4 9 8. Meat and meat products 117 101 218 9. Fish and fish products 298 159 457 10. Eggs and eggproducts - 4 4 11. Sweeteners, includinghoney 25 118 143 12. Salts, spices, soups, sauces, salads, protein products 600 1,283 1,883 13. Foodstuffs intended for particular nutritional uses 72 175 247 14. Beverages, excludingdairy products 1,090 3,816 4,906 15. Ready-to-eat savouries 741 744 1,485 16. Composite foods 40 209 249 Total Food Items imported 6,834 13,927 20,761 (%) 32.92 67.08 100.00 Trade Value US$ 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 JAN-MAR 10 JAN-MAR 11 Export 5,100,866 9,201,490 8,318,669 10,183,313 20,961,439 3,473,220 3,476,354 Export Import F&B Product between Indonesia -China Comparing with ASEAN. The trade value Indonesia -China is smaller than its potential 9/17/2011 64 5,100,866 9,201,490 8,318,669 10,183,313 20,961,439 3,473,220 3,476,354 Import 59,304,091 65,719,433 84,002,073 45,095,424 60,183,481 12,699,837 9,963,402 Source: BPS (calculated by Data Centre Ministry of Trade) During his visit to Indonesia last April, Excellency PM Wen Jiabao talked about trade relations between Indonesia -China in the context of ACFTA: Strengthen Good-Neighbourly Relations and Deepen Mutually Beneficial Cooperation. Entering the new century, our two countries have enjoyed frequent high-level exchanges, deepening political mutual trust and fast growing business cooperation. The establishment of the strategic partnership in 2005 brought our bilateral relations to a new stage. Last year, two-way trade approached 43 billion U.S. dollars, making China one of Indonesias major trading partners and export markets ASEAN Balance of trade with selected trading partner countries ASEAN trade with China has always been in deficit, also with Japan before turning into a modest surplus in 2006 & 2007. On the other hand, ASEAN has maintained trade surplus with theUSA,EU25,Australia,NewZealand,India, Canada and Pakistan since 1998. 65 Source: ASEAN Secretariat (2010) Intra and Extra Trade ASEAN About 25% trade is Intra-ASEAN. Means , ASEAN is still more trade dependence with Extra-ASEAN. Hope to bigger trade Intra-ASEAN after AEC 66 Source : http://www.aseansec.org/22073.htm, ASEAN Economic Minister Meeting ASEAN Senior Economic Official Meeting(SEOM) ASEAN Consultative Committee on Standards and Quality (ACCSQ) WG 1 WG 2 WG 3 JSCEEMRA ACC PPWG PFPWG APWG TMHSPWG To prepare Single Market & Production Base in AEC 2015, ASEAN formed ACCSQ Structure to evaluate all aspect trade, and PFPWG for food & foodstuff has been formed WG 1 Working Group on Standards and Mutual Recognition Arrangement s (MRAS) WG 2 Working Group Accreditatio n and Conformity Assessment WG 3 Working Group on Legal Metrology JSCEEMRA Joint Sectoral Committee for ASEAN Sectoral MRA for Electrical and Electronic Equipment ACC ASEAN Cosmetic Committee PPWG Pharmaceutic al Product Working Group PFPWG Prepared Foodstuff Product Working Group APWG Automotive Product Working Group TMHSPWG Traditional Medicines and Health Supplements Product Working Group WBPWG Wood-Based Product Working Group RBPWG Rubber-Based Product Working Group MDPWG Medical Devices Product Working Group 9/17/2011 67 Aspect to be Identified: Food Safety Labeling Registration Hallal Specific Requirements HARMONIZATION & STANDARD IN ASEAN TOWARDS AEC 2015 1 st Commodity Priorities 2 nd Commodity Priorities HS 1704; GSFA 05.2, 05.2.1, 05.2.2, 5.2.3, 05.4 HS 1904; GSFA 06.3, 06.7 HS 2007; GSFA 04.1.2.5 HS 1702; GSFA 11.2 HS 1704; GSFA 05.3 HS 1805; GSFA 05.1.1 HS 1903; GSFA 06.0,06.2.1, 06.2.2 HS 1905; GSFA 07.0, 07.1, 07.1.1, 07.1.1.1, 07.1.1.2, 07.1.2, 07.1.3, 07.1.4, 07.1.5, 07.1.6, 07.2, 07.2.1, 07.2.2, 07.2.3 HS 2001; GSFA 04.2.2.3, 04.1.2.3 1 st & 2 nd Commodity Priority have been decided to implement ASEAN Standards 9/17/2011 68 HS 2001; GSFA 04.2.2.3, 04.1.2.3 HS 2006; GSFA 04.1.2.6; 04.1.2.5 (except nuts), 04.1.2.7, 04.1.2.11 HS 2008; GSFA 04.1.2.2(Except nuts and sweetening matter) HS 2101; GSFA 14.1.5(excluding cocoa) HS 2103; GSFA 12.6 Harmonization of Food Standard will impact to Food Business (especially to SMEs) & Consumers behavior Conclusion Indonesia in AEC 2015 Actions to improve Indonesia Market Potential Indonesia is strategic, with stable economic growth. Potential , with GDP growth and Population Potential for investment , to optimize natural resources and produce Added Value Product F&B industry kept positive growing . In terms of number establishment, is dominated by SMEs, but value by Big Medium enterprises Market is dominated by Traditional market but Modern trade is growing faster Middle class has grown fast Business Potential 9/17/2011 70 Consumers Consumers will potentially change to increase the business More educated & changed Life style New consumerism More concerned about Food safety & Health Hallal concerned (more religious) AEC2015 Trade Intra-ASEAN is smaller than Extra-ASEAN Huge potential because of natural resources, Population & GDP (including ASEAN Plus) Optimizing business & sources potential for mutual benefit Expanding INVESTMENT to explore Huge Natural Resources , combining with Advanced Technology owned by ASEAN Countries to produce more VALUE ADDED PRODUCT, as a basis production to be more competitive in WHAT TO DO INDONESIA in ASEAN 9/17/2011 71 AEC2015 PRODUCT, as a basis production to be more competitive in global market Improving Trade Value and open for more MARKET ACCESS Need more understanding and tolerance about standard & procedures. Trying to harmonize & standardize to be a Production base & Single Market Cooperation among Need to build MRA to reduce Trade Barriers Eliminating NON-TARIFF MEASURE as much as possible , without ignoring FOOD SAFETY Standard Economic Partnership to minimize constraint of social status differences/gap, especially SMEs in the Country WHAT TO DO INDONESIA in ASEAN 9/17/2011 72 among Countries especially SMEs in the Country CAPACITY BUILDING for SMEs Industry to understand about global market, standard, and market integration NEED A CLOSER COOPERATION INDONESIA ASEAN towards AEC 2015 73 73 9/17/2011 9/17/2011