Professional Documents
Culture Documents
EQUITY MARKETS WEEKLY
UKRAINE, KYIV
DECEMBER 28, 2009
RESEARCH@ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
+38 (044) 490‐51‐85
Holidays are coming…
World Equity Indices
Index Country WOW,% MTD,% YTD,%
Dow Jones Indus. USA 1,85 1,69 19,87 Ukrainian Market
S&P 500 USA 2,18 2,82 24,71
Nasdaq Comp USA 3,35 6,58 44,94 As of the end of the week, UX index has decreased by 2.45%
DAX‐30 Germany 2,16 5,89 23,85 (reduction was fixed the third week in a row) to 1451.37 points,
FTSE‐100 Great Britain 3,96 4,08 21,84
NIKKEI‐225 Japan 3,48 12,30 18,46 the trading volume amounted to 63.7 million UAH. PFTS index lost
RTS Russia 2,84 5,48 129,51 2.56% reaching 571.59 points on Friday.
WSE WIG Poland 0,73 0,26 45,75
Prague Stock Ex. Czech Republic ‐0,30 ‐1,00 28,79 The week was very passive against the common close of positions
PFTS Ukraine ‐2,56 ‐3,86 89,63 in view of future uncertainty.
Among the important internal events the following should be
WTD,% MTD,% YTD,% noted:
Gold ‐0,86 ‐5,80 25,41 Until the end of 2009, the IMF will not provide Ukraine with the
Brent Crude Oil 4,88 ‐0,78 29,57 next tranche of the loan, said the Acting Minister of Finance Igor
EUR/USD 0,51 ‐3,77 3,14
Umansky. "Until the end of the year review (of the cooperation
program for provision of the next tranche) is impossible," ‐ he told
900 journalists in Kiev on Wednesday, commenting the results of
Official exchange rate
875
Interbank (bid) Ukrainian delegation visit to Washington. This news is neutral,
UAH/100 USD
Interbank (ask)
850
since the probability of the loan lending was quite low.
825
It became known that due to the weather conditions a number of
800
steel plants will not be able to fulfill the production plans in
775
750
December, among them Alchevsk Iron and Steel (ALMK ‐2.89%),
Dzerzhinsky Iron and Steel (DMKD) and Illich Iron and Steel (MMKI
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
4.
3.
8.
1.
2.
6.
0.
7.
5.
‐2.00%). The situation on Alchevsk Iron and Steel is also
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
.1
.2
09
09
10
10
10
11
11
12
12
compounded by low reserves of raw materials, which surely can
have a negative impact on the company’s stocks. However, plans
80 1800 for January remains the same on the background of increase in
Volume, mln UX
traders’ purchases, in anticipation of increased demand and prices
70 1575
for steel in January.
60 1350 On Wednesday the Cabinet of Ministers decided to anchor the
50 1125
price of Ukrainian oil sold at auction to the customs value of
imported oil. Thus, the government is trying to stop the abuses
40 900 that arise during the sale of hydrocarbons. News is positive for
30 675 Ukrnafta stocks (UNAF ‐1.48%), because the state‐owned company
is the largest seller of oil in Ukraine. Previously the company sold
20 450
oil at non‐market prices, as part Privat group’s shady schemes;
10 225 therefore, this decision will allow state companies to increase
0 0 revenues significantly. However, the company's management is
closely linked to Privat, and so it probably will try boycotting this
02.04.2009
21.04.2009
12.05.2009
28.05.2009
16.06.2009
03.07.2009
21.07.2009
06.08.2009
25.08.2009
10.09.2009
28.09.2009
14.10.2009
30.10.2009
17.11.2009
03.12.2009
21.12.2009
decision somehow.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev instructed the government to
include to the state arms program until 2020 the purchase of 20
military upgraded heavy military transport aircrafts An‐124 Ruslan,
engines for these aircrafts are built by Motor Sich (MSICH ‐0.39%).
Stanislav Zelenetskiy zelenetskiy@art‐capital.com.ua
EQUITY MARKETS WEEKLY
UKRAINE, KYIV
DECEMBER 28, 2009
RESEARCH@ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
+38 (044) 490‐51‐85
Most liquid shares
Average
Ticker price, UAH WOW,% MTD,% YTD,%
ZAEN 326,50 ‐8,42 ‐11,74 ‐16,07
UNAF 171,13 ‐3,13 2,43 52,80
CEEN 9,39 ‐9,14 ‐9,72 83,37
UTLM 0,44 ‐1,64 1,26 59,76
MMKI 2,30 ‐3,23 ‐6,76 142,11
MSICH 1661,67 ‐1,40 3,95 349,10
BAVL 0,25 ‐2,24 ‐2,17 4,08
NITR 11,56 ‐2,80 ‐1,42 46,64
DNEN 672,67 0,28 ‐34,69 42,11
SMASH 48,27 ‐16,78 3,95 221,06
USCB 0,34 ‐5,29 ‐7,23 54,89
DOEN 55,37 ‐3,69 ‐14,53 96,10
AZST 2,67 ‐1,17 3,78 211,17
STIR 49,13 ‐3,60 10,74 57,14
ENMZ 169,07 ‐1,20 5,11 221,01
PGOK 27,58 3,44 ‐1,84 135,15
KVBZ 17,60 ‐0,85 2,62 106,25
ALMK 0,13 ‐2,79 10,66 67,86
MZVM 27,50 0,00 ‐1,59 102,75
AVDK 10,75 ‐1,77 ‐3,07 130,78
Top Gainers, Losers, Most Actively Traded
Top Gainers
ALMK 1,5%
KRAZ 2,4%
SNEM 5,4%
AVDK 8,8%
HRTR 26,3%
Top Losers
LTPL 6,3%
FORM 7,7%
DOEN 8,3%
LUAZ 9,2%
NITR 9,9%
Most Actively Traded
DNEN 6087,3
AVDK 6594,8
MSICH 7098,7
ENMZ 9000,9
AZST 9360,4
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly December 28, 2009
Weekly Forecasts
Chart 1. UX weekly chart
Source: Art‐Capital
The week was very passive against the common close of positions in view of future uncertainty. The thing is, the UX
index was fixed below the long‐term support level S1 (see chart 1), which makes further reduction possible. The
nearest support level is the long‐term 38.2% correction (1375 points), which also coincides with the level of 20‐day
exponential moving average. Therefore, probably we will be able to see a technical rebound upwards from 1375. If UX
still goes below this support, we will see further strengthening in sales and increase in trading volume ("double top"
will be formed). It is better to use a "wait and see” tactic now. We will get a clear bullish signal only when we pass the
resistance R1, or even the last support level S1. Now R1 and S1 are congruent (it creates an even stronger resistance)
corresponding to 1525 points.
Stanislav Zelenetskiy
Junior Analyst
zelenetskiy@art‐capital.com.ua
WWW.ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
Volume, mln
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
15,0
17,5
20,0
22,5
25,0
27,5
30,0
32,5
35,0
37,5
40,0
42,5
45,0
47,5
50,0
52,5
55,0
57,5
60,0
62,5
65,0
67,5
70,0
72,5
75,0
77,5
80,0
82,5
85,0
87,5
90,0
92,5
95,0
97,5
100,0
27.08.2009
28.08.2009
ART‐CAPITAL
31.08.2009
01.09.200
02.09.2009
03.09.2009
04.09.2009
07.09.2009
08.09.2009
09.09.2009
10.09.2009
11.09.2009
14.09.2009
WWW.ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
15.09.2009
16.09.2009
17.09.2009
18.09.2009
21.09.2009
22.09.2009
23.09.2009
24.09.2009
25.09.2009
28.09.2009
29.09.2009
30.09.2009
01.10.2009
02.10.2009
05.10.2009
Weekly Forecasts
06.10.2009
07.10.2009
08.10.2009
09.10.2009
12.10.2009
13.10.2009
14.10.2009
15.10.2009
16.10.2009
19.10.2009
20.10.2009
21.10.2009
22.10.2009
23.10.2009
26.10.2009
27.10.2009
28.10.2009
29.10.2009
30.10.2009
02.11.2009
03.11.2009
04.11.2009
05.11.2009
06.11.2009
Equity Markets Weekly
09.11.2009
10.11.2009
11.11.2009
12.11.2009
13.11.2009
16.11.2009
17.11.2009
18.11.2009
19.11.2009
20.11.2009
23.11.2009
24.11.2009
25.11.2009
26.11.2009
27.11.2009
30.11.2009
01.12.2009
02.12.2009
03.12.2009
04.12.2009
07.12.2009
08.12.2009
09.12.2009
10.12.2009
11.12.2009
14.12.2009
15.12.2009
16.12.2009
17.12.2009
18.12.2009
21.12.2009
22.12.2009
23.12.2009
24.12.2009
25.12.2009
800
820
840
860
880
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1020
1040
1060
1080
1100
1120
1140
1160
1180
1200
1220
1240
1260
1280
1300
1320
1340
1360
1380
1400
1420
1440
1460
1480
1500
1520
1540
1560
1580
1600
1620
1640
1660
1680
1700
December 28, 2009
UX Index
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly December 28, 2009
World Indices’ Dynamic
Developed Market Equities 5 Days,% 1 Month,% 3 Month,% 6 Month,% 9 Month,% 1 Year,%
World Market Capitalization 10,35 8,53 15,11 34,23 69,62 50,60
Dow Jones Indus. USA 1,02 0,53 8,85 23,34 38,26 16,44
S&P 500 USA 1,12 1,43 7,86 21,49 41,19 20,89
Nasdaq Comp USA 2,15 5,04 9,32 23,95 49,53 40,04
DJ EuroStoxx 50 Europe 1,07 5,65 4,43 21,32 42,80 16,60
FTSE‐100 Great Britain 2,05 4,01 6,30 25,81 37,60 18,43
DAX‐30 Germany 0,45 6,11 6,74 21,95 45,85 19,79
Swiss Market Index Switzerland 1,16 4,72 5,50 20,88 33,54 18,89
Nikkei‐225 Japan 3,06 11,85 2,23 7,27 29,41 18,46
Hang Seng Hong Kong 2,72 ‐3,12 2,34 16,13 58,49 43,04
Emerging Market Equities
MSCI Emerging Market Index ($) 2,21 ‐1,32 8,16 26,54 66,06 57,49
S&P Asia 50 Asia 3,03 0,37 3,98 23,13 55,19 51,14
CSI 300 China 0,83 ‐1,75 11,97 7,70 36,57 88,41
SENSEX India 4,57 3,00 4,00 17,41 78,82 74,33
KOSPI South Korea 2,32 5,18 ‐0,54 21,17 39,47 45,36
TAIEX Taiwan 2,38 3,02 8,54 24,74 53,00 73,65
New Europe Blue Chip (€) Europe 0,55 ‐0,38 0,88 23,28 56,61 31,73
MICEX Russia ‐1,51 6,95 14,25 37,18 75,58 119,05
RTS Russia 1,74 6,10 18,36 52,42 110,29 129,51
WIG Poland 0,26 1,04 3,85 30,01 65,11 45,75
Prague Stock Ex. Czechia ‐0,34 0,16 ‐3,25 23,93 47,43 27,03
PFTS Ukraine ‐1,23 ‐6,53 10,95 40,96 151,43 89,63
S&P Latin America 40 ($) South America 2,15 ‐1,06 15,05 35,86 87,89 78,10
BOVESPA Brazil 2,52 1,80 11,98 29,64 65,15 67,95
BOLSA Mexico 2,36 6,90 13,17 32,99 65,84 39,99
Bonds
USA Treasuries USA 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,97 ‐3,04 ‐2,31
EMU Bonds Europe ‐1,41 0,03 0,25 6,28 5,42 2,95
UK Gilts Great Britain ‐0,82 ‐2,95 ‐2,63 ‐4,27 ‐6,59 ‐4,98
UA Bonds Ukraine 0,31 3,53 ‐3,08 11,82 72,34 103,23
Commodities
Gold 1,04 ‐7,13 11,65 17,74 20,18 26,17
Oil (Brent) 5,87 ‐1,44 15,80 4,28 31,75 26,38
Currency
EUR/USD 0,30 ‐4,37 ‐2,27 2,00 8,51 3,12
USA Euro area Japan China Germany Britain Brazil Poland Czechia Russia Ukraine
S&P 500 DJ EuroStoxx 50 Nikkei‐225 CSI 300 DAX‐30 FTSE‐100 BOVESPA WIG Prague SE MICEX PFTS
Change from 52w high, % 0,00 ‐0,01 ‐1,23 ‐8,54 ‐0,04 0,00 ‐3,15 ‐2,13 ‐6,70 ‐3,16 ‐13,62
Change from 52w low, % 68,94 68,84 51,46 91,78 67,44 56,11 89,21 96,57 83,82 154,59 187,06
Price‐earnings ratio, P/E 24,52 22,83 n/a 28,34 60,77 60,31 20,48 n/a 30,16 16,93 122,72
Price‐sales ratio, P/S 1,24 0,77 0,66 2,44 0,66 1,20 1,73 0,90 1,57 1,39 0,66
Price‐book ratio, P/BV 2,26 1,44 1,43 3,28 1,53 1,98 2,06 1,50 1,43 1,27 1,22
Divident yields 12M, % 2,09 3,83 1,41 1,36 3,47 3,45 3,10 2,20 5,28 1,53 0,80
WWW.ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly December 28, 2009
Quotations
Bid Ask Close Средняя WOW,% MTD,% YTD,% P/E EV/EBITDA EV/S
UNAF Ukrnafta 166,5 179,8 167,1 171,1 ‐3,13 2,43 52,80 209,0 10,6 1,0
UTLM Ukrtelecom 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 ‐1,64 1,26 59,76 38,5 7,6 1,5
Banks
BAVL Raiffeizen Bank Aval 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 ‐2,24 ‐2,17 13,43 4,3 n/a 2,4
FORM Bank Forum 6,6 6,0 6,0 6,2 2,14 5,45 15,47 5,8 n/a 4,4
USCB Ukrsotsbank 0,3 0,4 0,3 0,3 ‐5,29 ‐7,23 54,89 16,2 n/a n/a
RODB Rodovid Bank 50,0 4000,0 170,0 1406,7 0,00 0,00 240,05 1,9 n/a n/a
Electricity generation
CEEN Centerenergo 9,4 9,4 9,4 9,4 ‐9,14 ‐9,72 83,37 47,3 34,3 1,1
DNEN Dniproenergo 674,0 674,0 674,0 674,0 0,48 ‐34,56 42,39 80,0 45,0 1,3
DOEN Donbasenergo 55,4 55,3 55,5 55,4 ‐3,69 ‐14,53 96,10 30,8 239,7 0,8
ZAEN Zakhidenergo 325,0 327,5 327,0 326,5 ‐8,42 ‐11,74 ‐16,07 105,0 1445,1 1,1
Electricity distribution
DNON Dniprooblenergo 200,0 560,0 440,0 400,0 5,26 5,26 181,69 33,0 n/a 0,2
HAON Kharkivoblenergo 4,5 1,6 3,3 3,1 ‐2,59 ‐12,96 86,88 n/a n/a 0,2
KIEN Kievenergo 11,7 10,7 12,7 11,7 ‐3,18 ‐10,60 40,51 14,1 n/a 0,4
KREN Krymenergo 4,1 2,2 3,5 3,3 0,00 ‐3,47 87,50 12,1 n/a 0,4
Steel
AZST Azovstal 2,7 2,7 2,7 2,7 ‐1,17 3,78 211,17 22,5 6,5 1,5
ALMK Alchevsk Iron&Steel 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 ‐2,79 10,66 67,86 18,6 11,9 0,4
DMKD DMK Dzerzhynskogo 0,8 0,4 0,6 0,6 8,81 6,13 105,95 2,1 n/a 1,3
DMZP DMP Petrovskogo 0,4 0,3 0,5 0,4 ‐4,80 ‐26,99 29,35 n/a n/a 0,4
DNSS Dniprospetsstal 2500,0 1600,0 2100,0 2066,7 0,81 5,80 ‐18,42 57,2 14,0 1,0
ENMZ Enakievo Steel 172,0 167,5 167,7 169,1 ‐1,20 5,11 221,01 10,3 25,6 0,1
KSTL Mittal Steel Kriviy Righ 10,7 9,8 11,2 10,6 ‐0,63 4,98 13,04 32,0 15,6 1,9
MMKI Mariupol Illych Iron & Steel 2,5 1,9 2,5 2,3 ‐3,23 ‐6,76 142,11 208,3 25,9 0,1
Tubes
DTRZ Dnipropetrovsk TW 180,0 110,0 110,0 133,3 0,00 0,00 63,27 n/a n/a n/a
HRTR Khartsyzsk TW 1,3 179,8 167,1 116,1 ‐34,30 ‐30,52 3,64 209,0 10,6 1,0
NITR Nizhnyodneprovsky Tubes 9,0 179,8 167,1 118,6 ‐32,85 ‐28,99 5,92 209,0 10,6 1,0
NVTR Novomoskovsk Tubes 2,5 179,8 167,1 116,5 ‐34,08 ‐30,29 3,99 209,0 10,6 1,0
Iron ore
CGOK Central Mining 7,0 2,2 3,2 4,1 ‐0,08 ‐0,08 83,70 n/a n/a 3,9
PGOK Poltava Mining 25,3 30,0 27,5 27,6 3,44 ‐1,84 135,15 14,1 10,0 0,7
PGZK Pivdenny Mining 5,0 8,3 8,0 7,1 ‐8,58 ‐8,58 ‐9,75 6,0 n/a 3,6
SGOK Pivnichny Mining 3,5 3,7 3,7 3,6 ‐2,52 ‐5,65 68,22 n/a n/a 6,5
Coke
AVDK Avdeevka Coke 10,8 10,7 10,8 10,7 ‐1,77 ‐3,07 130,78 333,9 5,0 0,1
ALKZ Alchevsk Coke 0,8 0,2 0,5 0,5 0,00 ‐3,29 133,33 21,7 7,9 1,1
BKOK Bagliykoks 0,9 0,4 0,9 0,7 0,00 0,00 54,39 n/a n/a n/a
ZACO Zaporizhya Coke 2,0 0,3 0,4 0,9 ‐8,77 ‐62,32 ‐8,45 3,6 0,1 0,0
YASK Yasinovka Coke 2,0 3,3 3,4 2,9 ‐11,97 ‐1,48 270,94 6,7 3,9 0,0
Engineering
AVTO Ukravto 165,0 98,0 192,0 151,7 ‐3,19 ‐14,63 138,37 n/a n/a 0,3
AZGM Azovzagalmash 25,0 10,0 15,0 16,7 0,00 ‐3,85 158,40 23,8 43,0 0,4
DGRM Donetskgormash 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 ‐3,06 ‐5,00 ‐46,93 n/a n/a 0,9
HMBZ Svitlo Shahtarya 0,9 0,3 0,5 0,5 0,00 ‐5,95 54,90 n/a n/a 2,1
KVBZ Kriukov Car Building 18,5 16,5 17,8 17,6 ‐0,85 2,62 106,25 27,3 26,5 0,3
LTPL Luganskteplovoz 3,5 2,3 2,4 2,7 ‐11,03 ‐15,46 84,39 342,9 29,9 0,4
LUAZ LUAZ 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,2 ‐9,21 ‐18,82 56,82 2,3 34,8 0,8
MSICH Motor Sich 1664,0 1659,0 1662,0 1661,7 ‐1,40 3,95 349,10 10,8 3,8 n/a
MZVM Mariupol Heavy Engineering 33,0 23,0 26,5 27,5 0,00 ‐1,59 102,75 108,7 17,3 0,3
SMASH Sumy Frunze Machinery 24,8 63,0 57,0 48,3 ‐16,78 3,95 221,06 12,0 7,6 0,9
SNEM Nasosenergomash 3,4 2,3 4,1 3,3 19,75 2,74 242,46 n/a n/a 1,2
SVGZ Stakhanovsk Car Building 2,8 2,6 2,8 2,7 ‐1,67 3,26 93,88 81,3 23,3 0,3
Others
DNSH Dniproshina 38,0 8,0 17,0 21,0 0,00 10,53 ‐8,72 n/a 12,6 0,9
KFTP Kriukovka Cellulose & Paper 46,0 30,0 35,0 37,0 0,00 ‐4,31 192,11 8,2 2,4 0,4
MTBD Mostobud 370,0 330,0 370,0 356,7 ‐1,83 ‐8,55 49,65 190,7 n/a 0,3
NORD Nord 100,0 20,0 90,0 70,0 0,00 0,00 ‐39,66 n/a n/a 0,6
SHCHZ Mine Krasnoarmeyskaya 3,0 4,6 4,6 4,0 ‐11,23 ‐12,19 96,75 20,0 5,1 7,2
SHKD Mine Komsomolets Donbasa 4,1 6,5 6,3 5,6 ‐6,11 ‐0,12 46,45 46,4 11,6 6,0
STIR Stirol 43,0 51,8 52,6 49,1 ‐3,60 10,74 57,14 32,1 19,1 0,1
ZABR Zaporizhya Abrasives 0,5 1,8 1,1 1,1 ‐1,46 ‐3,15 ‐17,16 1,4 n/a 1,2
ZALK Zaporizhya Alluminum 0,1 0,9 0,3 0,4 ‐17,01 ‐17,01 8,44 n/a n/a 1,1
ZFER Zaporizhya Ferroalloys 0,2 1,8 0,9 0,9 0,00 0,00 6,06 22,5 n/a 2,3
FC ART‐CAPITAL
1 Narodnoho Opolchennya Street, 6th floor
Kyiv, 03151 Ukraine
т. +380 (44) 490‐51‐85, 490‐51‐84
www.art‐capital.com.ua
Research Department
+38 (044) 490‐51‐85 (184)
research@art‐capital.com.ua
Dmytro Monakov
Head of Research
monakov@art‐capital.com.ua
Stanislav Zelenetskiy Daria Tereshchuk
Junior Analyst Analyst
zelenetskiy@art‐capital.com.ua tereshuk@art‐capital.com.ua
Zhanna Shakhno
Analyst
shakhno@art‐capital.com.ua
Sales & Trading Department
st@art‐capital.com.ua
+38 (044) 490‐92‐46
Konstantin Shylin
Head of Sales Department
shylin@art‐capital.com.ua
Oleg Kirieiev, MBA (ESCP‐EAP) Valeriy Dobrovolski
International Sales and Trading / Analyst International Sales and Trading
kirieiev@art‐capital.com.ua dobrovolski@art‐capital.com.ua
Artur Rybai Svetlana Shevchun
Investment manager Trader
ribay@art‐capital.com.ua shevchun@art‐capital.com.ua
+38 (044) 490‐92‐46 +38 (044) 490‐92‐45
Alexandr Saul Nina Bazarova
Investment manager Investment manager
saul@art‐capital.com.ua bazarova@art‐capital.com.ua
Vitalij Berdichevsky Ilja Ivanov
Investment manager Investment manager
berdichevsky@art‐capital.com.ua +38 (044) 490‐92‐45
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any
securities. Descriptions of any company or companies or/and their securities, or markets, or developments mentioned herein are not represented
to be complete. There is no responsibility on our part to revise or update any information or correct any inaccuracies contained in this report on an
ongoing basis. Although the information in this material has been obtained from sources that CJSC IFC ART‐CAPITAL believes to be reliable, we do
not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. In making their investment decisions investors are expected to rely on their own analysis of all risks
associated with investing in securities. CJSC IFC ART‐CAPITAL, its top executives, representatives and employees accept no liability whatsoever for
any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of the material or its contents. CJSC IFC ART‐CAPITAL, third parties related to it, its directors
and/or employees, and/or any persons connected with them, may have interests in the companies or provide services to one or more companies
discussed herein and/or intend to acquire such interests and/or to provide any such services in the future. All estimates and opinions expressed in
this report reflect the judgment of each research analyst, who is fully or partially responsible for the contents of the document, and may differ
from the opinions of ART‐CAPITAL. This document, or any part hereof, may not be reproduced or copies circulated without the prior express
consent of CJSC IFC ART‐CAPITAL.