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ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
Ludwig-Blkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Ottobrunn/ Germany
www.lbst.de
www.lbst.de
1
Content
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
www.lbst.de
2
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
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ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
14,000
12,000
10,000
Oil Peak or Peak Oil:
the point at which
supply cannot match
demand anymore
8,000
OIL PEAK
2005~2010
6,000
4,000
2,000
1930
Legend
Oil
Source: LBST
16,000
Oil
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
www.lbst.de
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
14,000
12,000
Legend
Gas
Oil
10,000
GAS PEAK
2015~2025
8,000
6,000
Gas
4,000
2,000
1930
Source: LBST
16,000
Oil
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
www.lbst.de
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
14,000
12,000
10,000
COAL PEAK
2030~2040
Bituminous +
subbituminous
8,000
Lignite coal
6,000
Gas
4,000
2,000
1920
Legend
Coal lignite
Coal bit+subbit
Gas
Oil
Source: LBST
16,000
Oil
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
For details on coal resource/reserve analysis, see EWG Report No. 1/ 2007 "Coal:
http://www.lbst.de/publications/studies__e/2007EWG-coal__e.html
2100
www.lbst.de
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
14,000
12,000
10,000
Legend
Nuclear
Coal lignite
Coal bit+subbit
Gas
Oil
NUCLEAR PEAK
2015~2020
Bituminous +
subbituminous
8,000
Lignite coal
Nuclear
6,000
Gas
4,000
2,000
1920
Oil
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
For details on nuclear resource/reserve analysis, see EWG Report No. 1/2006 "Uranium:
http://www.lbst.de/publications/studies__e/2006EWG-uranium__e.html
7
Source: LBST
16,000
2100
www.lbst.de
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
14,000
12,000
10,000
Legend
Nuclear
Coal lignite
Coal bit+subbit
Gas
Oil
FOSSIL+NUCLEAR PEAK
2015~2020
Bituminous +
subbituminous
8,000
Lignite coal
Nuclear
6,000
Gas
4,000
2,000
1920
Source: LBST
16,000
Oil
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
www.lbst.de
8
20,000
15,000
10,000
Legend
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Biomass
Solar collectors
SOT
PV
Uranium
Coal
Gas
Oil
Geothermal
WEO 2006
Wind power
Biomass
Hydropower
Solar
collectors
Uranium
SOT
Coal
PV
Gas
5,000
Source: LBST
2004
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
Oil
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
www.lbst.de
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
www.lbst.de
10
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
Compilation: LBST
Natural Gas
Biogas
12
Gasoline
Diesel
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
Methanol
FT-Diesel, FT-Naphtha
Hydrogen (CGH2, LH2)
Hydrogen (CGH2, LH2)
Electricity
Hydrogen (CGH2, LH2)
Electricity
Hydrogen (CGH2, LH2)
Methanol
Ethanol
FT-Diesel, FT-Naphtha (BTL)
Ethanol
Plant Oil
FAME
BTL-like fuel (NExBTL)
Methane from Biogas
Hydrogen (CGH2)
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
Compilation: LBST
Crude Oil
www.lbst.de
Gasification of
Wood Chips (WC)
DM2
Water
Gasifier
(allothermal)
Gas Engine/
MCFC
Grid
CO, H2
Splgas
CO Shift
(PSA)
Electricity
Compression
Compressed Hydrogen
(for 70 MPa Vehicle Tanks)
13
Compilation: LBST
WC
50www.lbst.de
%
WKA = 100 %
Compressed Hydrogen from Renewable Electricity
Electricity
Electrolysis
Water
Compilation: LBST
Hydrogen
Compression
Compressed Hydrogen
(for 70 MPa Vehicle Tanks)
60 %
www.lbst.de
14
Electrolysis
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
Water
Hydrogen
WKA = 100 %
Liquefaction
Compilation: LBST
LH2 trailer
Distribution
Liquid
Hydrogen
15
50 %
www.lbst.de
700
600
500
400
*)
300
*)
turbines/km2
200
Bandwidth
100
er
Source: LBST
wi
n
po
LH
in
d
w
po
w
er
PV
2
LH
CG
H2
PV
CG
H2
sh
or
t
ro
ta
tio
n
fo
re
st
st
ry
fo
re
n
ti o
ot
a
LH
CG
H2
sh
or
tr
rt
r
ho
no
ls
ha
Et
ry
L
BT
ne
ha
et
m
oBi
fo
re
ot
a
tio
no
lw
Et
ha
st
he
M
(R
el
ie
s
od
Bi
ry
at
0
E)
800
www.lbst.de
Ertrag [GJ
KS /(ha
a)]
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Annahmen H2:
Anteil Flche PV-Module: 33%
Solare Einstrahlung: 900 kWh/(m2 a)
Wirkungsgrad PV-Module: 15%
Performance Ratio (PR): 75%
Wirkungsgrad CGH2-Bereitstellung: 60%
Wirkungsgrad LH2-Bereitstellung: 54%
*)
4,8 Windkraftanlagen/km2
*)
2000 kW/Windkraftanlage
Jahresvollbenutzungsdauer WKA: 1800 h/a
Palml
Indonesien
Bandbreite
Source: LBST
W
in
d
LH
2
Bi
od
ie
se
l(
Et
RM
ha
no
E)
la
Et
ha
us
no
W
la
ei
ze
us
n
Ku
rz
um
M
tri
et
eb
ha
n
au
s
Bi
og
as
CG
H2
BT
au
s
L
Ku
rz
LH
um
2
tri
au
eb
s
Ku
rz
um
tri
eb
CG
H2
au
s
PV
LH
2
au
s
PV
CG
H2
W
in
d
www.lbst.de
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
80
Assumptions H2:
Area occupied with PV: 33%
60
50
40
*)
*)
30
Compilation: LBST
[Passenger cars/ha]
70
20
10
Bandwidth
d
2
LH
CG
H2
in
in
PV
s
au
2
CG
H2
au
re
fo
ro
LH
ry
st
ry
st
n
tio
ot
a
18
Diesel engine
Otto engine
or
t
sh
LH
or
tr
sh
H2
CG
ta
tio
n
fo
re
et
m
oBi
rt
r
ho
no
ls
Et
ha
PV
L
BT
ne
ha
st
ry
fo
re
ot
a
tio
Et
ha
Bi
od
ie
s
el
no
lw
(R
he
E)
at
Fuel cell
www.lbst.de
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
Assumptions H2:
40
35
30
25
20
*)
Compilation: LBST
[Passenger cars/ha]
45
*)
15
10
Bandwidth
LH
sh
d
2
LH
CG
H2
in
in
PV
s
au
2
CG
H2
au
re
fo
or
t
ro
LH
ry
st
ry
st
n
tio
ot
a
or
tr
sh
H2
CG
ta
tio
n
fo
re
et
m
oBi
rt
r
ho
no
ls
Et
ha
PV
L
BT
ne
ha
st
ry
fo
re
ot
a
tio
Et
ha
Bi
od
ie
s
el
no
lw
(R
he
E)
at
19
Diesel engine
Otto engine
Fuel cell
www.lbst.de
20
Fuel Cell
-1
* Integrated ecological concept with recycling of residual products to the agricultural crop land
** Synthetic Diesel fuel from Fischer-Tropsch-Synthesis
www.lbst.de
Compilation: LBST
G
as
ol
in
e
Di Pe
es
t
el role
Pe u m
FA tr ol
M eum
E
(R
M
Et Eth
E)
a
h
Et
an no
ha
l
o
no l W Su
l W he ga
he at r Be
C
a
e
Et t B o al t
h a iog -C
HP
Et nol as
ha
W P
no as lan t
Et
t
*
l
h a Sh e W
no or
o
l R t R od
ot
BT esi
du atio
L
n
al
BT Wa
S
CG
st
tr
L
H2 Sh e W aw
o
Bi o rt
og
R od*
ot
*
a
CG s ( B atio
n*
H2 io
*
W
CG
W
as
H2 as
t
te e)
Sh
W
oo
LH ort
Ro d
2
LH Wa tat
io
s
2
Sh te W n
or
t R o od
ot
at
io
n
[MJ/km]
Renewable
Nuclear
Fossil
0
Credit for Electricity
160
140
21
100
80
Fuel Cell
-40
* Integrated ecological concept with recycling of residual products to the agricultural crop land
** Synthetic Diesel fuel from Fischer-Tropsch-Synthesis
www.lbst.de
Compilation: LBST
G
as
ol
in
e
Di Pe
es
t
el role
Pe u m
FA tr ol
M eum
E
(R
M
Et Eth
E)
h
a
Et
an no
ha
l
o
no l W Su
l W he ga
he at r Be
C
a
e
Et t B o al t
h a io
ga C H
n
P
o
Et
s
h a l W Pl
as an
n
t*
Et ol
t
h a Sh e W
no or
o
l R t R od
BT esi ota
du tio
L
n
al
W
CG BTL as Str
t
H2 Sh e W aw
oo
Bi o rt
og
d
R
as ota **
CG ( B tio
n*
io
H
CG 2 W Wa *
H2 as ste
Sh te W )
oo
LH ort
d
R
2
ot
W
LH
as atio
2
Sh te W n
or
t R o od
ot
at
io
n
[g CO2-Equivalent/km]
120
N2O
CH4
CO2
60
40
20
-20
Credit for Electricity
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
www.lbst.de
22
PJ/a
Inland navigation
12500
Civil aviation
10000
7500
Road transport
Plantation
(grasses: 10-25 t DM/ha/yr)
5000
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
Via biogas
2500
Demand
(Transport)
2004 1)
1)
2)
min
max
Biogas
(Methane)
min
max
Hydrogen
(CGH2)
min
max
Hydrogen
(LH2)
min
max
BTL
min
max
Plant oil/
FAME 2)
min
max
Ethanol from
wheat 2)
min
max
Ethanol via
SSCF
www.lbst.de
23
Compilation: LBST
15000
22000
[PJ/yr]
20000
Inland navigation
Ocean power
Civil aviation
Geothermal
Road transport
Wind onshore
18000
Rail
16000
2)
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
Wind offshore
14000
12000
10000
Compilation: LBST
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Fuel consumption
(Transport 2004) 1)
1)
24
2)
min
CGH2
max
min
Hydropower
max
LH2
www.lbst.de
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
LH2
1,975
1,975
1,975
1,975
22,964
22,964
0.60
0.54
38,086
42,851
1,300
1,300
Efficiency PV panel
0.15
0.15
Performance ratio
0.75
0.75
146
146
0.33
0.33
0.8
Mtoe
TWh/yr
2
kWh/(m yr)
kWh/(m yr)
t/(ha yr)
Required area
Mill. km
Mill. km
%
0.7 1)
2.7 2)
0.9
29.0
7.3
149
149
149
149
0.5
0.6
19.5
4.9
1)
2 t seed per ha and year, oil yield 0.34 kg/kg; without irrigation; 2) 8 t seed per ha and year, oil yield 0.34 kg/kg; with irrigation;
Source: Abhiskek Maharishi, Centre of Excellence for Jatropha Biodiesel Promotion, India; www.jatrophabiodiesel.org
25
For comparison: land area of the USA is about ~9.2 million km2
www.lbst.de
Compilation: LBST
CGH2
Unit
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
~ 0,03 Wm-2
~ 0,10 Wm-2
~ 0,10 Wm-2
~ 3 Wm-2
~ 165 Wm-2
Conclusions:
In the long run, only the sun and the wind can be pillars
of the energy supply system.
www.lbst.de
26
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
Photovoltaic (PV)
+ 24 % per year
+ 30 % per year
Solar collectors
(heat)
+ 11 % per year
Biomass
Potential P:
available technical potential
[ecological limitations considered]
Logistic growth concept
Potential P
Potential
0.5 * P
Wind power
+ 16 % per year
Hydropower
Geothermal
Source: LBST
27
+ 11 % per year
Average global growth rates
Compilation: LBST
History
(already developed)
T0
P
F=
1+e ( )
-T-T0
b
www.lbst.de
Role of hydrogen
Where does the hydrogen come from? Electricity by world region
70,000
Legend
Africa
Middle East
Latin America
East Asia
South Asia
China
Transition Economies
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD North America
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
17,500 TWh
10,000
10,000
PV
28
60,000
Source: LBST
70,000
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
SOT
Wind
Hydropower
Geothermal
Cumulative regional growth scenarios based on historic growth rates projected into the future via logarithmic function
www.lbst.de
Role of hydrogen
Where does the hydrogen come from? Heat by world region
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
12,000
Legend
Africa
Middle East
Latin America
East Asia
South Asia
China
Transition Economies
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD North America
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Source: LBST
12,000
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
2,000
Biomass
29
Biogas
Geothermal heat
Solar thermal
Cumulative regional growth scenarios based on historic growth rates projected into the future via logarithmic function
www.lbst.de
Role of hydrogen
Which needs can it cover?
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
Alternative
Fuels ?
Transport sector:
Local production of hydrogen
(reduction of oil import dependency, long-term growth will not be
Stationary sector:
Supply of back-up power via fuel cells (hospitals, telecom,
data processing, manufacturing processes, refrigeration, etc.)
Source: LBST
Infrastructure ?
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
www.lbst.de
31
Natural Gas
Oil
Biomass
Electricity
GE]
1,20
1,40
1,00
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
0,80
0,60
0,40
FCV fuels
ICEV fuels
0,20
Source: LBST
CG
H2
in
s it
e
ix
l- M
-E
EU
H2
CG
Crude oil based gasoline and diesel: price ex filling station without taxes in June 2006
32
on
lW
di
FT
ug
lS
Et
ha
no
es
e
Be
ar
FC
W
H2
et
H1
2
CH
CG
CG
H2
/o
00
40
ix-
-M
NG
CG
H2
ns
/o
ix
-N
EU
H2
CG
ns
it e
ite
G
GM
lr
em
ot
-4
0
M
et
ha
no
CN
NG
-4
NG
eN
00
0
00
es
el
Di
LH
2
Ga
so
l
in
0,00
www.lbst.de
CTL
CGH2, LH2: FC
Methanol: FPFC
Diesel, RME, BTL, GTL,
CTL, DME: Diesel ICE
Gasoline, ethanol, CMG:
Otto ICE
250
CGH2 (hard coal)
200
150
Gasoline/Diesel
@50 /bbl w/o tax
LPG
CNG
100
GTL
EtOH (wheat)
CGH2 (NG)
Battery electric vehicle
(EU electricity mix)
50
0,01
RME
CMG (biogas)
0
0
Gasoline/Diesel
@50 /bbl w tax
DME (NG)
0,02
0,03
0,04
Source: LBST
300
LH2 (wind)
0,05
www.lbst.de
ludwig blkow
systemtechnik
Oil Report:
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Oil-report.32+M5d637b1e38d.0.html
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdf [full report]
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_Summary_10-2007.pdf [executive summary]
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Press_Oilreport_22-10-2007.pdf [press release]
Uranium Report:
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Uraniumreport_12-2006.pdf
Coal Report:
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-Coalreport_10_07_2007.pdf
DWV:
"Woher kommt die Energie fr die Wasserstofferzeugung Status und Alternativen
http://192.168.1.217/www/lbst.de/publications/studies__d/2006/DWV_Woher-H2_NOV2006.pdf
http://www.dwv-info.de/publikationen/2006/woher.pdf
EHA:
EHA H2 Production Brochure April, 2007
http://www.h2euro.org/Publications/studies/EHA_H2Production_brochure_eng_0407.pdf
EC-JRC IPTS:
"Potential of hydrogen as a fuel for transport in the long term (2020 to 2030)
http://192.168.1.217/www/lbst.de/publications/studies__e/2004ipts__e.html
www.lbst.de
34
www.lbst.de
35
www.HyWeb.de
www.h2mobility.org
www.h2stations.org
www.energiekrise.de
www.lbst.de
36