06/11/2013

DISCRETE EVENT SYSTEM

SIMULATION
3RD EDITION

MK Simulasi Komputer
Teknik Industri UII
@ 2013

J E R R Y BA N K S, E T. A L .
C H A P T E R 0 1 . I N T R O D U C T I O N T O S I M U L AT I O N

INTRODUCTION
A simulation is the imitation of a real-world process or system over
time.
The behaviour of a system as it evolve over time is studied by
developing a simulation model.
The model takes the form of a set of assumptions concerning the
operation of the system
Once developed and validated, a model can be used to investigate a
wide variety of what-if questions about the real system

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1. JELASKAN APA YANG DIMAKSUD

DENGAN SIMULASI?
A simulation is related with
1.

the imitation

2.

real-world process

3.

system over time

4.

The behaviour

5.

a set of assumptions

6.

developed

7.

Validated

8.

investigate

9.

what-if questions

THE USED OF SIMULATION

To study of, and experimentation with, the internal interactions of a
complex system
Informational, organizational, and enviromental change can be
simulated, and the effect of these alterations on the models behavior
can be observed
The knowledge gained in designing a simulation model may be of
great value toward suggesting improvement in the system under
investigation
By changing simulation inputs and observing the resulting outputs,
valuable insight may be obtained into which variables are most
important and how variables are interact

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...CONTINUED
Simulation can be used as a pedagogical device to reinforce analytic
solution methodologies
Simulation can be used to experiment with new designs or policies
prior to implementation, so as to prepare for what may happen
Simulation can be used to verivy analytical solutions
By simulating different capabilities for a machine, requirements can
be determined

...CONTINUED
Simulation models designed for training allow learning without the cost
and disruption of on-the-job training
Animation shows a system in simulated operation so that the plan can
be visualized
The modern system is so complex that the interactions can be treated
only thourgh simulation

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WHEN IS IT NOT APPROPRIATE?

1.

The problem can be solved using common sense

Avg arrival 100/hr. Serving rate 12 hr. Number of server? 100/12=8.33

2.

The problem can be solved analytically

3.

If it is easier to perform direct experiments

4.

The cost exceeds the saving

5.

Study cost US$20,000, savings might be US$10,000

The resources are not available

Study cost US$20,000, resource available US$10,000

...CONTINUED
6.

The time are not available

7.

If data is not available

8.

If no personel nor time are not avalilable to varify & validate the
model

9.

If managers have unreasonable expectations

10. The system is too complex or cant be defined.

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ADVANTAGES
New policies, operating procedures, decision rules, information flows,
organizational procedures, and so on can be explored without
disrupting ongoing operations of the real system
New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems, and
so on, can be tested without commiting resources for their acquisition
Hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur can be tested
fo feasibility
Time can be compressed or expanded allowing for speedup or
slowdown of the phenomena under investigation

...CONTINUED
Insight about the interaction of variables or the importance of
variables on performance of the system
Bottleneck analysis can be performed indicating where processes are
being delayed
What if? questions can be answered particularly for a new system

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DISADVANTAGES
Expensive
Extensive time needed
Lack of experienced personnel
Model building requires special training and experience
Results may be difficult to interpret
Time consuming and expensive
Use of simulation when analytical models are available and
preferable, particularly for closed-form models

AREAS OF APPLICATION
Manufacturing, Semiconductor Mfg.
Construction & Project Management
Military
Logistics, Supply Chain, Distribution
Transportation & Traffic
Business Processes
Health Care

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CURRENT GENERAL TRENDS

Risk Analysis
Insurance, options pricing, portfolio analysis

Call Center Analysis

Large Scale Systems
Internet backbones, wireless networks, supply chains

Automated Materials Handling (AMHS)

Control system sw - emulator

SYSTEM
A set of inputs which pass through certain processes to produce
outputs
A set of related components which work together toward a given goal
A group of objects joined in regular interactions or interdependence
for the accomplishment of some purpose

Helpful if a system is observable,

measurable, systematic

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SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT
World in which the system exists
System is affected by elements outside the system the system
environment
Boundary line between the system & its environment
Decision on boundary is dependent upon simulation purpose

SYSTEM COMPONENTS
Consists of objects called ENTITIES
Entities have a set of properties called ATTRIBUTES that describe them
There exist interactions called ACTIVITIES and or EVENTS that occur
between the entities that cause them to change
The STATE OF A SYSTEM is a snapshot of the system at a given time
i.e. variables necessary to describe system
The model starts in its INITIAL STATE

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ACTIVITIES & EVENTS

Cause changes in the attributes of the entities, and, therefore, the
state of the system
Event: instantaneous
Activity: has a length of time

SYSTEM COMPONENT EXAMPLES

System

: Banking

Entities

: Costumer

Attribute

: Checking account balance

Activities

: Making deposits

Events

: Arrival; Departure

State variable

: Number of busy teller; Number of costumer waiting

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...CONTINUED
Production
Inventory
Try to identify!

ACTIVITIES & EVENTS

Endogenous: variables affecting the
system which are (can be) manipulated
within the system
Exogenous: variable which affect the
system but cannot be manipulated by
the system because they are outside
the system.

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CLASSIFICATIONS OF SYSTEMS
Static (Monte Carlo) vs. Dynamic
Deterministic vs. Stochastic
Continuous vs. Discrete
D: state vars. change at discrete points in time
C: state vars. change continuously over time
Simulate
Stochastic - Dynamic - Discrete or Continuous

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MODEL
The representation of an object in some form
other than the form of the object itself, usually for
the purpose of study or experimentation
Why Model???
1. training or instruction
2. to aid thought
3. to aid communication
4. prediction
5. experimentation
6. ** to aid decision making process

CLASSIFICATION OF MODELS
Physical: an actual representation
Schematic: a pictorial representation
Descriptive: a verbal description
Mathematical: components are described mathematically, in the form
of equations
Heuristics: descriptive model based on rules; algorithmic; - computer
based

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CHARACTERISTICS OF A GOOD MODEL

Simple to understand
Goal directed
Robust
Easy to control
Complete on important issues
Adaptive and easy to update
Evolutionary

STEPS IN A
SIMULATION STUDY

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STEPS IN A SIMULATION STUDY

1.

Problem Formulation
a.

2.

Statement of the problem

Set Objectives & Project Plan

a.
b.
c.
d.

Questions to be answered
Is simulation appropriate?
Methods, alternatives
Allocation of resources

People, cost, time, etc.

...CONTINUED
3.

Model Conceptualization
a.
b.
c.
d.

4.

Requires experience
Begin simple and add complexity
Capture essence of system
Involve the user

Data Collection
a.
b.

Time consuming, begin early

Determine what is to be collected

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...CONTINUED
5.

Model translation
a.
b.

6.

Verification
a.

7.

Computer form
general purpose vs. special purpose lang.

Does the program represent model and run properly? Common sense

Validated?
a.
b.

Compare model to actual system

Does model replicate system?

...CONTINUED
8.

Experimental Design
a.
b.

9.

Production & Analysis

a.
b.

10.

Determine alternatives to simulate

Time, initializations, etc.

Actual runs + Analysis of results

Determine performance measures

More Runs?

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...CONTINUED
11.

Documentation & Reporting

a.
b.
c.

12.

Program & Progress Documents

Thoroughly document program will likely be used over time
Progress reports are important as project continues history, chronology
changes, etc.

Implementation

TEN REASONS FOR FAILURE (NOTES)

Failure to define an achievable goal
2.Incomplete mix of essential skills

Project leadership
Modeling
Programming
Knowledge of modeled system

3.Inadequate level of user participation

4. Inappropriate level of detail
5.Poor communication

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...CONTINUED
6. Using the wrong computer language
7. Obsolete or Nonexistent Documentation
8. Using an unverified model
9. Failure to use modern tools and techniques to manage the
development of a large complex computer program
10. Using Mysterious Results

ANY QUESTIONS?

Class will be dismiss

otherwise..

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