Viet

Nam Poli,cal Update 2014

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presenta,on to 2014 Viet Nam Update
Connected and Disconnected in Viet Nam
The Australian Na,onal University
Canberra, December 1-2, 2014

Revised December 2, 2014

Overview
Part One
An,-Corrup,on Campaign
Human rights and religious freedom
Na,onal Assembly vote of condence
Vietnam Communist Party 9th plenum

Part Two
Vietnams external rela,ons/Oil Rig Crisis

Part Three - Conclusion

Part 1
Domes,c Poli,cs

An,-Corrup,on Campaign
Government Decree on nancial disclosure
issued September 2013
1 million required to le forms, 5 were audited
and only one found fraudulent
Director of state loUery in Kien Giang

Results hard to believe

Ph Ngc Tuyn, Ph cc trng Cc Chng tham
nhng ( Thanh tra Chnh ph) October 23, 2014

An,-Corrup,on Campaign
Vinalines chairman
Vietnam Bank for
Agriculture and
Development
Asia Commercial Bank
and six associated
companies
PetroVietnam
subsidiary

Song Da Finance Joint

Stock Company and
Seaprodex
Vietnam Development
Bank , Central Highlands
branch (death penalty)
Vung Tau province
ocials
Bao Viet ex-CEO

An,-Corrup,on Campaign
Swedish aid project
ocials in Phu Yen
Phuong Nam Seafood
Joint Stock Company
Lien Viet Post Bank
branch ocers
Former Chief
Government Inspector
Trn Vn Truyn

Vietnam Construc,on
Bank senior ocials
(death penalty)
General Director of Viet
Finance Group
Former chairman of
Ocean Bank
Japanese ODA bribery
scandal Railway
Authority ocials

Democracy and Human Rights

Democracy will enhance the crea,ve capacity of
each person, improve social cohesion and nuture
the unity of society
Democracy and Rule of Law are two twins that
must develop hand-in-hand
No country is capable of realising democra,c
values at all levels and in all spheres at the same
,me
New Years Message, Prime Minister Nguyn Tn
Dng, January 1, 2014

Human Rights & Penal Code

Ar,cle 88 propaganda against the State
Vietnam ranked 174th our of 180 countries on Press
Freedom Index

Ar,cle 245 public disorder (a new twist)

Ar,cle 258 abusing democra,c rights to
infringe on the State and others
These ar,cles are vaguely worded

UN Universal Periodic Review of

Vietnams Human Rights Record
Universal Periodic Review held February 25
Review conducted every four years
Vietnam con,nued to violate its ci,zens rights to
freedom of expression, associa,on, assembly,
religion, labour rights, land tenure rights and right to
a fair trial and con,nued to imprison government
cri,cs
Human Rights Watch (Jan 2014)

UN Universal Periodic Review of Vietnams

Human Rights Record
World Human Rights Day (January 2014)
peaceful gatherings in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City
broken up by police

With Membership Comes Responsibility:

Ensuring Human Rights in Vietnam
Civil society conference held in Geneva
Vietnamese civil society ac,vists and family
members of prisoners prevented from travelling
to Geneva to make representa,ons

Es,mates of Poli,cal Prisoners

160 persons jailed with average sentence of 9
years (May 2009-June 2013)
Interna,onal Federa,on on Human Rights &
Vietnam CommiUee on Human Rights

63 bloggers and nonviolent ac,vists convicted

in 2013
Human Rights Watch

75 jailed for peaceful exercise of human rights

Amnesty Interna,onal, Silenced Voices (Nov 2013)

Es,mates of Poli,cal Prisoners

17 journalists and online writers in jail
CommiUee to Protect Journalist (Oct 2014)

26 ci,zen journalists/bloggers
Reporters Without Borders (Oct 2014)

More than 150 dissidents in deten,on

John Si|on, Asia Advocacy Director for Human
Rights Watch (October 9)

Assaulted or Arrested in 2014

L Quc Qun, lawyer and blogger, appeal on
tax evasion charges rejected (February)
Nguyn Bc Truyn, lawyer and prisoners
advocate, home ransacked (Feb 9) and
assaulted on way to Australian Embassy (Feb
24)
Trng Duy Nht, blogger, arrested (March 4)
Phm Vit o, blogger, arrested (March 19)

Assaulted or Arrested in 2014

Bi Th Minh Hng, Nguyn Th Thy Qunh
and Nguyn Vn Minh, bloggers and ac,vists,
sentenced (Aug 26)
Disturbing public order, obstruc,ng trac

Nguyn Hu Vinh (Anh Ba Sm) and Nguyn

Th Minh Thy, bloggers, detained with
charges pending (Nov 27)

Civil Society Groups

Reported Ac,ve in 2014
Vietnam Right Now (VRN)
Vietnam Path Movement (2012)
Former poli,cal prisoners, member of VRN

Independent Journalists Associa,on of

Vietnam (founded July 2014)
Pe,,on 72
Social Democra,c Party

Civil Society Groups

Reported Ac,ve in 2014

Buddhist Youth Movement (UBCV)

Civil Society Forum
Network of Vietnamese Bloggers
Peoples Ac,on Party
Vietnamese Women for Human Rights

Civil Society Groups

Representa,ves from more than a dozen
community and religious groups met at
Buddhist temple in Ho Chi Minh City on June
5 including:
Vietnam Path Movement
Network of Vietnamese Bloggers
Catholic Congrega,on of the Most Holy Redeemer
Hoa Hoa Buddhists
Protestant Church

Internet
Government-hired cyber troops mounted
hacking aUacks on poli,cal ac,vists
Facebook pages aUacked (March 2014)

Malicious so|ware used to spy on ac,vists

Google and McAfee security analysts

Vietnam listed as Enemy of the Internet by

Reporters Without Borders (Oct 2014)
Vietnam detains third largest number of
imprisoned ne,zens

Religious Freedom
Banned Unied Buddhist Church of Vietnam
aUempts to hold peaceful gathering in Hue
(Jan 2014)
Subject to government crack down
Monks and nuns harassed
100 Buddhist Youth Movement members under
house arrest including L Cng Cu

Patriarch Thch Qung - ,ghtened controls

imposed on his house arrest

UN Special Rapporteur on Freedom of

Religion or Belief
Heiner Bielefeldt, Special Rapporteur, visits
Vietnam from July 21-31, 2014
Security agents closely monitored his visit and
harassed or in,midated people he wanted to
meet
Bielefeldt concluded, there are serious
viola,ons of religious freedom or belief taking
place in this country

UN Special Rapporteur on Freedom of

Religion or Belief
Special Rapporteur also noted some improvements:

Believers can prac,ce their religion beUer than in the past

Space for prac,cing has been cau,ously widened
Opening up religious prac,ce and aUendance
More religious buildings
Ministry of Foreign Aairs (MOFA) greater willingness to
cooperate more closely with interna,onal human rights
mechanisms that promote freedom of religion or belief
Groups that seek ocial registra,on can prac,ce their
religion

Visit by Special Rapporteur men,oned in US-Vietnam

Comprehensive Partnership Agreement

Religious Freedom
Mennonite Church Center, Bn Ct, Bnh
Dng province, aUacked by thugs wielding
hammers and metal cuUers who ransacked
premises (November 12)
Nine Mennonite Chris,ans, including two
Pastors, forcibly taken away
Charged with not having their ID cards and
temporary residence papers
Unit 113 rapid response police implicated

Vietnam-Va,can Rela,ons
Pope Francis met Nguyn Sinh Hng ,
Chairman of the Na,onal Assembly
5th mee,ng of Joint Working Group held in
Hanoi (September 10-11)
Focus on restoring bilateral diploma,c rela,ons
Religious freedom an issue

Prime Minister Nguyn Tn Dng received by

Pope Francis in the Va,can (Oct 18)

Buddhist Youth Movement Leader

Immolates Herself

L Th Tuyt Mai, Ho Chi Minh City, May 23, 2014

Ethnic Minori,es
Six Hmong Chris,an sentenced under Ar,cle
258 (March 2014)
They opposed government campaign requiring
Hmong to return to tradi,onal funeral prac,ces
Built new funeral storage facili,es
Charged with building without a permit

13 Chris,an montagnards ee to Cambodia

(early November)

Prisoners Released
Of 16 detained in 2012, ve released
UN Working Group on Arbitrary Deten,on (Oct
2014)

Chu Mnh Sn, Catholic ac,vist (Feb 2014)

inh ng nh, human rights defender,
amnes,ed (March 21), died of stomach cancer
(April 3)

Prisoners Released
C Huy H V released April 2014 and exiled
in the United States
Nguyn Tin Trung and Vi c Hi, poli,cal
ac,vists, released (April 12-13)
Th Minh Hnh, labour ac,vist, released
(June 27)
Nguyn Tun Nam and Trn T, both aged in
their 70s, released (late Sept)

Prisoners Released
L Vn Tnh, released (Sept 27)
u Vn Dng, Catholic ac,vist, released
(early October)
Nguyn Vn Hi (iu Cy) released in
October 2014 and exiled in the United States

Police Brutality

Five police ocers in Ph Yn Province on trial on April 3, 2014 for

bea,ng a burglary suspect to death. Photo: c Huy

Na,onal Assembly
13th Legislature
7th Session (May 20-June 24)
11 laws and two resolu,ons were adopted and 16
dra| laws and one resolu,on were debated
Vote of condence procedures
Major aUen,on to East Sea Oil Rig Crisis

8th Session (October 20 November 28)

Ra,ed UN Conven,on against Torture and Other
Cruel, Inhumane or Degrading Treatment or
Punishment
in US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership Agreement

8th Session, 13th Legislature

Conducts second Vote of Condence in Government Ministers

Vote of Condence
High Condence - Top Performers

Vote of Condence
Low Vote of Condence

Party Central CommiUee

9th Plenum (May 8-14, 2014)
Developing an advanced culture
Vote of condence extended to senior party
ocials (Politburo & Secretariat)
Pilot project on holding direct elec,ons to
peoples commiUees at ward level
Dra| policy documents and electoral
procedures for the forthcoming 12th na,onal
party congress
Closely monitor situa,on in East Sea

Growing Power of the Oce of the

Prime Minister (Structural Tensions)

State Pr
esident,
S

ecretary
Gen

eral, Pri
me Min
ister

Part 2
Vietnams External Rela,ons

Hai Yang Shi You 981 Crisis

May 2-July 16, 2014

HD 981

HD-981 Crisis (May 2-July 15, 2014)

May 26, 2014

KN-951 rammed on June 23, 2014

HD 981 Crisis Rela,ons Reset

State Councilor Yang Jiechi aUends leaders mee,ng of
Joint Steering CommiUee (June 18)
China withdraws HD 981 (July 16)
Pe,,on of 61 calls for Vietnam to exit Chinas
orbit (that Trung), July 28
China receives Special Envoy of VCP Secretary General
(Aug 26-27)
State Councilor Yang aUends 7th Joint Steering
CommiUee mee,ng (Oct 6)
Senior Military Delega,on visits Beijing (Oct 16-18)

External Rela,ons
Rela,ons with Japan raised to Extensive Strategic
Partnership (March)
President of India visits Hanoi and Prime Minister
of Vietnam visits Delhi (Sept-Oct)
$100 million line of defence credit

Senior Politburo member Phm Quang Ngh visits

US and U.S. Secretary John Kerry receives Foreign
Minister Phm Bnh Minh (Oct 2)
Li|s arms embargo on case-by-case basis
Demonstrable progress on human rights

Part 3
Conclusion

Conclusion
Du,es of Na,onal Party Congress

Approve Poli,cal Report

Socio-Economic Strategy, 2016-2020
Amend Party Plaorm
Amend Party Statutes
Elect Central Execu,ve CommiUee
Elect Politburo, Secretary General

Vietnams Power Elite

Secretary
General
State
President
Permanent
Secretary
Party
Secretariat

Prime
Minister

Chair Na,onal
Assembly
Standing
CommiUee

These posi,ons will be relled a|er the 12th Na,onal Party Congress

12th Na,onal Party Congress

Scheduled for early 2016
Exemp,ons to age limits can be made for one
incumbent over 65 years of age
Ten members of present 16 member Politburo
will be over 65 in 2016 (63%)
Only members who have served one full term
can be appointed to top ve posi,ons

Sectoral Composi,on of the VCP

Central CommiUee 2011
11%

9%

Senior Party
Central Party-
State
38%
42%

Secondary/
Provincial
Armed Forces

The general composi,on of the Central CommiUee is unlikely to change a|er 12th Congress

Over 65 in 2016 - 12th Congress

Added to
Politburo in 2013:

Nguyn Th Kim Ngn

Nguyn Thin Nhn

Politburo Members Under 65 in 2016

High Vote of Condence, not a minister not part of vote of condence

Nguyn Th Kim Ngn

Nguyn Xun Phc

Tng Th Phng

Trn i Quang
inh Th Huynh

Nguyn Thin Nhn

Deputy Prime Ministers

Who will replace Nguyn Tn Dng as Prime Minister a|er 12th Na,onal Party congress
Hoang Trung Hai, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Vu Van Ninh or someone else?
Prime Minister
Nguyn Tn Dng
Hong
Trung Hi

Nguyn
Xun Phc

V Vn
Ninh

V c
am

Phm Bnh
Minh

Year of Birth:
1954

1954

1955

1963

1959

Prior to 2006 the next Prime Minister was invariably the rst or permanent Deputy
Prime Minister. There is uncertainty as the 12th Na,onal Party Congress approaches

Conclusion
An,-Corrup,on Campaign
most pervasive and sustained campaign in memory, high-
level gures targeted

Human Rights
con,nued repression of bloggers, journalists, poli,cal
ac,vists and ethnic minori,es; violence by state-
sanc,oned thugs, and increased control over Internet
some release of high-prole poli,cal prisoners
new civil society groups ac,ve, greater pluralism in society

Religious Freedom
some progress alongside serious viola,ons

Conclusion
Na,onal Assembly
for rst ,me held hearings on police brutality
vote of condence conducted for second ,me
7 Cabinet ministers received low condence votes

Vietnam Communist Party

structural tensions between party/government as State
(Cabinet and Oce of Prime Minister) has grown
bureaucra,cally more powerful than party
ins,tu,onal interests mi,gate against strong party leader
Central CommiUee now playing a more asser,ve role
preoccupied with planning for 12th Congress
10th plenum in December 2014 will be important

Conclusion
Oil Rig Crisis
Vietnam stood its ground
Chinas withdrawal of HD 981 permiUed both
sides to step back and reset rela,ons
Instead of exi,ng Chinas orbit balance restored

Rela,ons with Japan and India upgraded

US insists of demonstrable progress on human
rights for bilateral rela,ons to advance

Viet Nam Poli,cal Update 2014

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

E-mail: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au
Papers posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer)