TCS TO FIRE 1,300 IN 2009

TNN MAR 9, 2009, 10.14AM IST

TCS TO HIRE 55,000 IN 2014

TOI APR 16, 2014

SONY TO CUT 10,000 JOBS

PTI AUG 25, 2012, 03.33PM IST

HUMAN RESOURCE
PLANNING

MANPOWER PLANNING

Planning so that the organization has the right

number of people, right kind of people, at the
right time, in the right place.

Process of anticipating and making provision for

the movement (flow) of people into, within, and
out of an organization.
The process of deciding what positions the firm
will have to fill, and how to fill them (Dessler &
Varkkey, 2011).

TP & STRATEGIC PLANNING

is the formal process of linking business

strategy with HR practices (Smith, Boroski &
Davis, 1993).

STRATEGIC PLANS

MARKETING
PLANS

PRODUCTION
PLANS

RECRUITMENT
PLANS

FINANCIAL
PLANS

T&D PLANS

TALENT PLANS

COMP. PLANS

RETENTION
PLANS

SAFETY
PLANS

ENSURING FIT BETWEEN HR AND

BUSINESS STRATEGY
External

Fit (or External

Alignment)

Focuses on the connection between the

business objectives and the major
initiatives in HR.

Internal

Fit (or Internal Alignment)

Aligning HR practices with one

another to establish a configuration
that is mutually reinforcing.

ELEMENTS TO CONSIDER FOR

FORECASTING

The Talent Planning Team

Appropriate Planning Horizon

TIME FRAMES

Short term = 0 2 yrs

Medium term = 2 5 yrs

Long term = Beyond 5 yrs

FACTORS AFFECTING
Organizational
Growth Cycle &
Planning

Strategy of the
Organization

Outsourcing

Type and
quality of
forecasting
information

Fact
ors

Time Horizons

Environmental
Uncertainties

Nature of jobs
to be filled

PLANNING MODEL
Goals and Plans of Organisation

Phase 1
Investigating
Phase 2
Forecasting

Phase 3
Planning/
Implementing
Phase 4
Evaluating

Current HR
Situation External /
Internal
Supply

Demand

Designing and
Implementing
Programmes
Monitor and Adjust
HR Plans

PLANNING AND FORECASTING

Employment or Personnel Planning

Succession Planning

The process of deciding what positions

the firm will have to fill, and how to fill
them.

The process of deciding how to fill the

companys most important executive jobs.

What to Forecast?

Overall personnel needs

The supply of inside candidates

The supply of outside candidates

DRAWBACKS TO TRADITIONAL FORECASTING

TECHNIQUES

They focus on projections and historical relationships.

They do not consider the impact of strategic
initiatives on future staffing levels.
They support compensation plans that reward
managers for managing ever-larger staffs.
They bake in the idea that staff increases are
inevitable.
They validate and institutionalize present planning
processes and the usual ways of doing things.

USING COMPUTERS TO FORECAST

PERSONNEL REQUIREMENTS

Computerized Forecasts

Software that estimates future staffing needs by:

Projecting sales, volume of production, and personnel required to

maintain different volumes of output.
Forecasting staffing levels for direct labor, indirect staff, and
exempt staff.
Creating metrics for direct labor hours and three sales projection
scenariosminimum, maximum, and probable.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING
Scanning

The systematic monitoring of the major external

forces influencing the organization.

Scanning

the External Environment

the Internal Environment

Cultural Audits

Audits of the culture and quality of work life in an

organization.

Benchmarking

The process of comparing the organizations

processes and practices with those of other
companies.

FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY

FORECASTING DEMAND
Considerations
Technology
Financial resources
Organizational
growth
Mgmt. philosophy

Techniques
HR inventories
Markov analysis
Skill inventories
Replacement charts
Succession Planning

Techniques
Trend analysis
Managerial
estimates
Delphi technique

External
Considerations
Workforce
changes
Mobility
Govt. policies
Unemployment

FORECASTING SUPPLY

BALANCING
SUPPLY AND
DEMAND
(Shortage)
Recruitment
Full-time / Parttime

(Surplus)
Reductions
Layoffs
Terminations
Demotions
Retirements

FORECASTING DEMANDS

External

Organizational

Socio-political- legal challenges

Technological challenges
Economic changes
Competitors
Strategic Plans budgets
Budgets
New ventures

Organization and Job design

Workforce
Retirement
Resignation
Termination
Leaves of absence

FORECASTING PERSONNEL NEEDS

Forecasting Tools

Trend analysis

Ratio analysis

Scatter plotting

QUANTITATIVE METHODS:TREND
ANALYSIS
Forecasting

labor demand based on an

organizational index:

Select a business factor, e.g. sales, that best predicts

human resources needs.
Plot the business factor in relation to the number of
employees to determine average labor productivity.
Compute labor productivity for the past five years.
Project human resources demand out to the target
year(s).

EXAMPLE OF TREND ANALYSIS OF HR DEMAND

BUSINESS
FACTOR
YEAR

(SALES IN 000)

LABOR
PRODTY

HR
DEMAND

(SALES/EMPLOYEE) (NO. OF EMPLOYEES)

2002 Rs. 2,935

8.34

352

2003 Rs. 3,306

10.02

330

2004 Rs. 3,613

11.12

325

2005 Rs. 3,748

11.12

337

2006 Rs. 3,880

12.52

310

2007 Rs. 4,095

12.52

327

2008 Rs. 4,283

12.52

342

2009* Rs. 4,446

12.52

355

*Projected figures

Determining the Relationship Between

Hospital Size and Number of Nurses

Number of
Registered
Nurses

200

240

300

260

400

470

500

500

600

620

700

660

800

820

900

860

Note: After fitting the line,

you can project how many
employees are needed,
given your projected
volume.

523

Hospital Size
(Number
of Beds)

RATIO ANALYSIS ON A HYPOTHETICAL

MANUFACTURING PLANT
Level

2012 actual
employee count

Est 25% growth

requirements for
2013

Plant Manager

Department
Supervisor

15

19

Foreman

60

75

Machine Operator

105

128

Gen labourer

306

383

Total

486

609

QUALITATIVE APPROACHES TO
DEMAND FORECASTING
Management

The opinions (judgments) of supervisors,

department managers, experts, or others
knowledgeable about the organizations future
employment needs.

Delphi

Forecasts

Technique

An attempt to decrease the subjectivity of forecasts

by soliciting and summarizing the judgments of a
preselected group of individuals.
The final forecast represents a composite group
judgment.

FORECASTING THE SUPPLY OF

INSIDE CANDIDATES

Qualification
Inventories

Manual systems and

replacement charts

Computerized skills
inventories

FORECASTING SUPPLY OF EMPLOYEES:

INTERNAL LABOR SUPPLY
Staffing Tables
Markov Analysis
Skill Inventories
Replacement Charts
Succession Planning

FORECASTING INTERNAL LABOR SUPPLY

Staffing

Graphic representations of all organizational

jobs, along with the numbers of employees
currently occupying those jobs and future
(monthly or yearly) employment requirements.

Markov

Tables

Analysis

A method for tracking the pattern of employee

movements through various jobs.

HYPOTHETICAL MARKOV ANALYSIS FOR A

RETAIL COMPANY

29

INTERNAL SUPPLY FORECASTING TOOLS

Skill

Inventories

Files of personnel education, experience,

interests, skills, etc., that allow managers
to quickly match job openings with
employee backgrounds.

Replacement

Charts

Listings of current jobholders and persons

who are potential replacements if an
opening occurs.

AN EXECUTIVE REPLACEMENT CHART

31

Management Replacement Chart Showing Development

Needs of Potential Future Divisional Vice Presidents

EXTERNAL SUPPLY FACTORS DEPEND ON

Cos. HR policies on

recruitment / selection
promotion / transfer
separation of surplus labour

Local factors

population densities around the plant

local unemployment levels
current / future competition in the area
patterns of migration
facilities e.g. housing, health-care

Other factors

relevant legislation
trends in growth of working population
competition

ELEMENTS OF THE HR PLAN

Acquisition

of personnel
Effective Utilization

redeployment
methods improvement
training to prevent obsolescence

Development

and Improvement

broad-based training and development

performance management systems

Retention

proper remuneration
long-term career planning
healthy employee relations
good working environment

Strategic HR
Initiative
Strategies for Managing
Shortages

Strategies for Managing

Surplus

Recruit
Offer incentives to postpone
retirement
Re-hire retirees part-time
Attempt to reduce turnover
Work overtime
Subcontract work to
another company
Hire temporary employees
Redesign job process so that
fewer employees are needed

Hiring freeze
Do not replace those who
leave
Offer VRS schemes
Reduce work hours
Offer Leave of absence
Layoffs
Across the board paycuts
Reduce outsourced work

REQUISITES FOR SUCCESSFUL HRP

HRP

must be seen as equally vital as business

planning

Top-management

support

Periodic

review and revision of the forecasting

techniques and the forecasts

Without

long range planning concentration becomes

focussed on short-term needs resulting in crisis
management reactions

An

excellent and up-to-date HRIS

Active

involvement of line managers and coordination between line mgrs and HR function

IN TWO YEARS TIME MCBEATH (1990)

Sales and
Marketing Director
Sandy Cameron

Home Sales
Manager
John Sneddon

Market Intelligence
Co-ordinator

Marketing Manager

Export Director

Gill Dreydon?

Don Laing ?

Marketing
Information
Processing Manager

Product
Specification
Manager

5 Managing
Directors of
Overseas
distribution
company

5 regional Export
Sales Managers

IN FIVE YEARS TIME MCBEATH (1990)

Export
Director

Sales and
Marketing
Director ( Home)

Home Sales
Manager

Market
Intelligence
Manager

Marketing
Manager

Primary
Competitor
Specialist

MD A

Marketing
Information
Processing
Manager

Product
Development
Liaison

MD B

MD C

Local Operations

MD D

Regional Sales
and Marketing
Managers

MD E