Urbanization as key

indicator for accelerating

human enterprise

Urbanization and
Urban System Dynamics
Professor Xuemei Bai
Fenner School of Environment and
Society, ANU

Figure 2. The change in the human

enterprise from 1750 to 2000 (28).
The Great Acceleration is clearly
shown in every component of the
human enterprise included in the
figure. Either the component was
not present before 1950 (e.g., foreign
direct investment) or its rate of
change increased sharply after 1950
(e.g., population).
(Source: Steffen et al, 2007)

1. Urbanization in the Anthropocene

More than half the

Earths population are
urban dwellers
Cities as the center for
economic growth,
innovation, resource
use, and
environmental impacts
Battle for sustainability
to be won or lost in
cities

Urban vs rural population

(Source: Grimm et al 2008)

Growth Rates of Urban Agglomerations, 1970-2011.

Map 5: Growth rates of urban agglomerations, 1970-2011. These maps indicate

that the annual growth rates of urban agglomerations in the past (1970-2011 period)
were higher than the growth rates that are projected for the future (2011 to 2025
period). The growth of urban agglomerations will slow down, as many of them have
already reached a population of 1 million or more or have become mega-cities with 10
or more million inhabitants.
(Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization
Prospects the 2011 Revision New York 2012)

Urbanization in Asia
Largest urban population in the
world
Majority of world megacities
One of the fastest urbanizing
regions in the world
Urbanization often
concurrence with
industrialization and economic
growth
Facing some of the most
significant environmental
challenges

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Aisa

Europe

African

North
America

South
America

Number of mega-cities
Source:

For research: Living

laboratory to develop and test
theory
For practice: Window of
opportunity to get it right

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megacity#cite_note-21

The number of cities in China

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100

1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006

(Source: China Statistical Yearbook 1978-2008 and China City Development in 50 Years)

Location of Shenzhen City China

1. Background

Neck breaking speed in building

Figure 3 Rapid urban
expansion of Shenzhen
City from 2000 to 2007
based on remote
sensing image
interpretation. Red
color for urban land,
yellow for bare land,
green for land with
vegetation, blue for
water body.

15 storey fastest
building of hotel built
in just six days- world
record, Changsha,
China
(http://ddlax.hubpages.com/hub/
15-storey-hotel-built-in-just-sixdays)

30-story building built

in 15 days

ETM+ image on Nov. 1st 2000, TM

image on Sep. 15th 2000, ETM+
SLC-off composite data on Dec.
7th and Nov. 30th 2007 are used
for this comparison.

(http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=HdpfMQM9vY&annotation_id=annota
tion_418374&feature=iv)

(Bai et al, forthcoming)

12

220-story 838m
World tallest building
in 90 days?

 And Demolishing
The Bund Community in Wuhan, 4 years
old, blasted on March 30th, 2002. Violation
of flood regulation plan.

Average building lifespan

10+ in Shenzhen
80% of world heavy cranes
in coastal China
40% of construction
materials used in China
Construction material
demand will exceed supply

2. Drivers and Impacts of Urban Growth

Primary driver:
- Job opportunity and aspiration for better life
- Push and pull factors
Policy factor:
- Concurrence of urbanization, industrialization and economic
growth
- Significant urban contribution to national economy
- High income countries often have higher urbanization level
=> National policy to promote urbanization for economic growth

(Shen et al, 2005)

Five Lake Hotel in Nancang City, 13

years old, blasted on Feb. 6th, 2010.
Change of ownership, upgrading.
13

Does urbanization bring about economic growth?

(Bloom et al, Science, 2008)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-proudly-demolishingbuildings-completed-pursuit-great-housing-bubble-perpetual-engine

2. Drivers and Impacts

Urbanization is more than people

moving into cities!
Urbanization as multifaceted phenomenon:

Demographic
Landscape
Social
Cultural
Political/institutional
Environment

Demographic urbanization data known to be

problematic, and lacks comparability across countries
Demographic indicator not sufficient to deny causal
relationship between urbanization and economic growth.
(Bai et al , 2012)

Figure 2 Spatial distribution of Chinese cities included in analysis.

Panel U1 (1990-1998) consists of 174 cities.
Panel U2 (1997-2006) consists of 135 cities.
Panel U3 (1990-2006) consists of 121 cities that appear in both U1 and U2 panel.
(Source: Bai et al, EST, 2012)

2. Drivers and Impacts

2. Drivers and Impacts

Positive Feedback
1)Larger cities tend to gain more income and richer cities
tends to expand more
2) There is a long-term bi-directional causality between
urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at
both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level.
3) A positive feedback between landscape urbanization
and urban and regional economic growth in China.
(Bai et al, Environmental Science&Technology, 2012)
Figure 4 Average annual growth of GDP per capita, built-up area,
and population of 135 Chinese cities during 1997-2006.
(Source: Bai et al, EST 2012)

2. Drivers and Impacts

Policy Implications
1) Urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator,
does have causal effect on economic growth in China,
both within the city and with spillover effect to the
region.
2) Urban land expansion is not only the consequences of
economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such
growth.
3) Under its current economic growth model, it might be
difficult for China to control urban expansion without
sacrificing economic growth.
4) Chinas policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for
food security, might be challenged by its policy to
promote economic growth through urbanization.
- (Bai et al, Environmental Science&Technology, 2012)

Disproportionate Impact on Arable Land

In China, up to 80% of
all agricultural land
loss over the last
decade was converted
into urban landuse.
Between 1997 and
2006, more than
12,000sqkm of land
was converted into
urban built up area.
(Bai et al 2012)

Urban landuse is often surrounded by

arable land. Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan
area, China (shown in 10km radius in the
figure). (Source: Tan et al 2005)

Currently about 1% of earth surface is urban.

Some forecast suggest this could be tripled by
2030.

Implications for Agriculture

While the absolute amount doesnt seem
significant, urbanization has significant
implications in terms of:

(Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population

Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York 2012)

Urbanization Impacts on Rural Community

Direct impact on the amount of arable land

Strong, fundamental drivers
Indirect impacts on productivity and rural community
Changed quantity and structural mix of demand for
food
Stronger pressure on food production concentrated to
some vulnerable regions such as China and India
Bai Crawford Fund Conf., Oct
9th, 2012

Changing Vulnerability of rural community in relation to

landuse change

Fig. 5 Transformation of four communities over past 6 decades. (Huang et al,

Environmental Science and Policy, 2012)

(Huang et al, Environmental Science and Policy, 2012)

Urbanization Impact of on Rural Community

- Five Golden Flowers in Chengdu -

Urban
Ecosystems
3. Urban
Processes
and Dynamics
Cities as driver and responder to environmental change

But in other areas, where

the locals can seize the
opportunity, tremendous
increase in social/economic
capital in peri-urban areas.
(CCICED, 2012)
Eco-tourism in Chengdu rural villages

(Grimm et al 2008, Science)

25

3. Processes and Dynamics

Global Impacts of Cities

Although urban population growth over the past century
occurred on less than 3% of the Earths surface, the
impact has been global, with
78% of carbon emissions,
60% of residential water use, and
76% of wood used for industrial purposes attributed to cities.
(Source: Grimm et al, Science, 2008)

3. Processes and Dynamics

Urban System
Input
Natural
Resource (Food,
Energy, Water,
Other Materials)
Capital
Information

Urban Systems Structures

and Functions
Urban Land and Water
Ecosystem Services
Urban Infrastructure
Distribution of Goods
Provision of Urban Services
Industrial Processes
Urban Planning
Urban Governance
Urban life style

Urban System
Outputs
Industrial Products and
Services
Knowledge
Wastes and Other
Emissions

Urban Systems Performance Indicators

Social (e.g. employment, liveability, health and well being, culture and heritage, equality)
Economic (e.g. competitiveness, productivity)
Environmental (e.g. air and water pollution level, noise level, resource efficiency etc)
Governance (e.g. participation and inclusion)

Figure 2 Integrated urban metabolism and urban system performance indicators

(Source: Bai and Schandl, 2011. In RutledgeHandbook of Urban Ecology, 2010)

3. Processes and Dynamics

Cities as Open System

P fertilizer
input into
i l

Inedible

Pass throughout
urban area and to

Food

(According to Global Energy Assessment, 2012) ?%

External dependency:
Household Consumption based CO2 emission
accounting in Xiamen city:

P inflow into
urban system
through food
consumption
(TP
)

70% - upstream to provide for cities

17% - urban service & infrastructure
13% - emission from direct activity
(Lin et al, PLoS ONE 2013)

Edibl
e

Discharge as solid
human excreta

To landfill or
agricultural

Discharge as
untreated sewage

P flow outside

Discharg
e as
treated

Sludge
discharge

Landfill

Reclaimed
water

Marginally left in human

body (ignored)
Others remained in urban

P remained
in urban
area

Urban

Solid
Food waste

Non-urban

Can we live off solar energy in cities?

Figure 2 Conceptual model of urban dietary P flow into and out of

urban system and mass balance calculation.
29

(Source: Li, Bai et al, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2011)

3. Processes and Dynamics

(A)

(B)

3. Processes and Dynamics

Table 3-1 Causes and impacts of major types of urban environmental issues

(C)

(E
)

(D
)

Figure 6 Relationship between per capita disposable

income of urban residents and indicators related to
dietary P flow in provincial capital cities of China
(data for the year 2006).
(Source: Li, Bai et al, Journal of Industrial
Ecology, 2011)

Spatial Extend of
Type
Typical Issues
Causes
Major Impacts
Impacts
local
Type I:
Low access to safe Low infrastructure, Sanitation related
rapid urbanization, health impacts, such
Poverty
water, lack of
as diaries, infections
related issues sanitation facilities, income disparity
organic pollution of
water bodies
local and regional
typical industrial
Type II:
Air pollution (SOx, Rapid
Rapid growth particulate etc), water industrialization, low pollution disaster,
Minamata Disease,
rate of emission
related issues pollution (heavy
Onsan Disease;
treatment, lack of
metallic subjects,
effective management deterioration of
BOD, COD)
regional ecosystem,
industrial solid waste
pollution,
etc. NOx High consumption Global warming,
regional and global
CO2 emission,
Type III:
lifestyle, low local chemical ingredient
concentration,
Wealthy
and dioxin caused
incentive for
municipal waste,
lifestyle
abnormality in infant,
improvement
related issues Dioxin, etc.
over-extraction of
resources, etc.

(Source: Bai and Imura, 2000)

3. Processes and Dynamics

3. Processes and Dynamics

SO2 concentration in Korean and Japanese cities

Cities are complex systems subject to

constant change, the process of which can be
viewed as a dynamic evolutionary process
Urban environmental profiles of cities are
diverse, but there are certain commonalities
in the evolutionary trajectories among
different cities

0.300

SO2 concentration (mg/m3)

Urban Environmental Evolution (1)

0.250
0.200
0.150
0.100
0.050
0.000

1950

1960

1970

1980
Year

1990

2000

(Source: Bai 2003)

2010

(Source: Bai 2003)

3. Processes and Dynamics

Urban Environmental Evolution (2)

However, the environmental evolution of
cities exhibit a strong non-linearity in their
trajectories, instead of following a fixed,
stylized pattern;
Each trajectory is shaped by a unique
combination of endogenous and exogenous
forces, reflecting both pressures from outside
the system and the responses from within the
city.

4. Urban Sustainability Experiments and

Transition

If cities are evolving systems, is it possible to

intervene and alter the future trajectory towards
sustainable end?

(Source: Bai 2003)

4. Experiments and Transition

4. Experiments and Transition

Changing System of Practice

Change is always challenging!
Inertia
stickiness
path dependency
Lock-in
Nevertheless, there are front-runners and
successful examples
Large number of urban best practices
documented
Solar energy use in Rizhao, China

4. Experiments and Transition

Sustainability Experiment
Sustainability experiments are planned initiatives
that embody a highly novel socio-technical
configuration likely to lead to substantial
(environmental) sustainability gains.
Small initiatives in which the earliest stages of a process of
socio-technical learning takes place.
Typically bring together new networks of actors with knowledge,
capabilities and resources, cooperating in a process of learning

4. Experiments and Transition

Single Case vs. Multiple Case

Single case learning often treated as too context
specific or anecdotal in academic debate
Lack of systematic, comprehensive analysis
attempting to identify commonalities across large
number of individual cases
The need for understanding key characteristics
and emerging common patterns, and extracting
transferable knowledge across cases

(Berkhout et al, 2010)

10

4. Experiments and Transition

4. Experiments and Transition

Conceptual Framework

Research Questions
What contributes to the success of a good
practice?
Are there commonalities and emerging patterns
across cases?
What are the determining factors and mechanisms
shaping these patterns?
What are the sound analytical approaches for
identifying them?

Trigger
s

Actors

Linkage
s

Barriers

Pathway of
Experiments

Analyzing innovative practices in urban sustainability:

Conceptual framework
(Source: Based on Bai et al, Environmental Science and Policy,
2010)

(Bai et al 2010)

4. Experiments and Transition

Findings from 30 Urban Sustainability

Practices in Asia
About half of all cases either multiplied or up-scaled to
change system of practice
Political aspect prominent for both success and failure,
e.g. policy change as trigger, local government role as
main actor, state government support, institutional
aspect as major barrier
Technology or cultural aspect seldom identified as major
barrier
Many international donor funded projects tend to stay as
individual experiment, some times multiplied but seldom
up-scaled to change system of practice

In Summary
Cities as human-dominant, complex, dynamic,
evolving systems
Their internal and external dynamics not
necessarily well understood, e.g. urbanagriculture interaction.
Presents enormous challenges as well as
opportunities for sustainability
The need to focus more on the role of
sustainability practices and experiments
What happens in cities will, to a large extent,
define human-environment interaction in
Anthropocene

11

References

Relevance to Australia?

Over 90% urban already

Finished process?
According to ABS, by 2101, Australia
will have 62 million population
Where would the additional 40million
population go?

45

Lin, T., Y. YU, X.M. Bai, L. Feng, J. Wang. 2013. Carbon emission accounting of urban
residential consumption: a household survey based approach. PLoS ONE 8(2): e55642.
10.1371/journal.pone.0055642.
Bai, X.M., J. Chen, P.J. Shi. 2012. Landscape urbanization and economic growth:
Positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas. Environmental Science & Technology
46(1): 132139.
Huang, Y., F. Li, XM. Bai, S.Cui. 2012. Comparing vulnerability of coastal communities to
landuse change: Analytical framework and a case study in China. Environmental Science
& Policy 23, 133-143.
Bai, X.M., I. Nath, T. Capon, N. Hasan, D. Jaron. 2012. Health and wellbeing in the
changing urban environment: Complex challenges, scientific responses, and the way
forward. Current Opinion on Environmental Sustainability 4: 465-472.
Li, G.L., X.M, Bai, S. Yu, H. Zhang, Y.G. Zhu. 2011. Urban phosphorus metabolism
through food consumption: The case of China. Journal of Industrial Ecology. 16(4): 588599. D
Bai, XM, Roberts BH, Chen J. 2010. Urban Sustainability Experiments in Asia: Patterns
and Pathways. Environmental Science & Policy 13(4):312-325.
Grimm NB, Faeth SH, Golubiewski NE, Redman CL, Wu JG, Bai XM & Briggs JM, 2008.
Global change and the ecology of cities. Science 319: 756-760.
Bai, X. 2003. The Process and Mechanism of Urban Environmental Change: An
Evolutionary View. International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 19(5):528-541.
46

Thank You!
questions and comments are welcome:
xuemei.bai@anu.edu.au

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