ASCE Wind Map by Peter Vickery

ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map
Peter J. Vickery
Applied Research Associates, Inc.
8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600
Raleigh, NC, 27615
Objectives of Presentation
Rationale behind 300, 700 and 1700 return period

maps
Basis for new wind speed maps
Basis for re-introduction of Exposure D
Basis for missile impact area
Facts About the ASCE 7-05 Wind

Speed Map
In most of the non-hurricane US mainland, the

mapped values are exactly a 50 year mean
recurrence interval (MRI)
Wind speeds in hurricane prone regions are NOT 50
year MRI values. The mapped values vary from ~50
to ~100 years along the hurricane coastline.
Wind speeds along the hurricane coastline have
been adjusted upward so that when incorporated with
the wind LF, produce a wind load having a consistent
hazard level with the interior US (~700 MRI)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
ASCE 7-10 Wind Maps
New Hurricane Simulation Model

Windfield
Filling (weakening after landfall)
Holland B (pressure-wind Relationship)
Tracks and pressures (Landfall location and intensity)
Results in Lower Design Wind Speeds
ASCE 7-10 uses a strength or limit state wind speed map (wind
load factor = 1 for strength design, 0.6 for ASD)
Strength map corresponds to 700 year RP
ASCE 7-05 Equivalent Map = V700/1.6
Category III and IV structures use 1700 year RP winds
Category I structures use 300 year RP winds
2.5
Hurricane(Miami)
LoadFactor[VT/V50]2
2.0
WLF*1.143=1.828
WLF=1.6
1.5
NonHurricane
[VT/V50]2=[0.36+0.1ln(12T)]2
1.0
0.5
1.00
1.143
0.0
1
50
10
709 1000 1697
100
10000
ReturnPeriod(Years)
2.5
Hurricane(NewYorkCity)
LoadFactor[VT/V50]2
2.0
WLF*1.143=1.828
WLF=1.6
1.5
NonHurricane
[VT/V50]2=[0.36+0.1ln(12T)]2
1.0
0.5
1.00
1.143
0.0
1
10
50
100
709 1000 1697
10000
ReturnPeriod(Years)
Basis of Design Wind Speeds
New Hurricane Simulation Model

Improved wind field model
New filling model (weakening
after landfall)
New Holland B model
(pressure-wind relationship)
New model for tracks and
pressures (landfall location and
intensity)
Results in lower design wind
speeds
180
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)
Hurricanes
160
Non-Hurricanes
140
Combined
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
100
1000
10000
Return Period (Years)
Additional Data in New Model

Parameter
Number of full scale wind speed traces (with maximum wind
recorded) used to validate windfield model
Number of dropsonde profiles used to verify marine
boundary layer model
Number of hurricanes used to develop Holland B model
Number of landfall hurricanes
Number of landfall intense hurricanes (defined by pressure)
Number of hurricanes used to develop filling model
Number of years of landfall data used to develop model
2000
Model
63
Current
Model
245
650
17
167
70
38
96
35
189
84
57
107
Increase
390%
100%
13%
20%
68%
11%
Simulation Methodology
!
987
!9
88
!9
and Long . direction

Site Lat
vs
e inland
Distanc
!
!
991
991
Step 3:
Storm Filling
, 2005)
Central pressure filling (Vickery
B filling
985
985
966
! !
! !
!
95
3
6
96
re
ssu
Pre rval)
tral
te
Cen our in
(6 h
6
96
! ! !
5
97
76
8 7
98 98 987 981 982 73 69
9
! !
9
!
!
!
! ! !9
!
! ! !
Step 2: s
o
re
5 Squa
and V t
new
I
Sam ple new value of
008)
te
hera (2
Compu P c, B, RMW
te
and Wad
Compu from Vickery
B, RMW
8
1
99 99 998 997
!
!
2
98
2
97
10
08
0
95 941
!
993
97
!
!
991
936
970
4
97
10
06
928 !
924 !
998
3
94
5
94
987
d on
rne
) tu
981
987
8
20 0
981!
9
94
983
1
95
986
1
96
t al,
ry e ite
icke
s
el (V m of
p 4: ld mod 250 k }
te
S dfie
V t, r
ithin
Win rm w RMW ,
to
,
s
B
,
if
f {P c
V=
974
9
96
90
973
946
6
97
949
"
984
982
960
954
948
2
98
!
!
88
!9
990
rr
We
torm
p 1:
Ste li ze S nd RM
a
Initia ple B
Sam pute I
Com
rms
or te
Wind Model Overview
Described in peer reviewed engineering and

meteorological literature.
Includes asymmetries caused by variable friction as
well as translation speed
Wind speed variation with height model using
dropsonde data
Extensively validated over land and water
10
Track Model Verification

Comparison of land fall rates by pressure
Comparisons of modeled and observed translation
speeds, heading, occurrence rates and distance of
closest approach
!9
98
88
!9
g
n
and Lon
directio
Site Lat
inland vs.
Distance
99
0
!
!9
!
99
1
91
981
!
!
0
95 941
!
!
! !
10
100
Return Period (years)
6
96
! ! !
5
97
76
8 7
98 98 987 981 982 73 69
9
! !
9
!
!
!
! ! !9
!
! !
!
95
3
6
96
! ! !
1
8
8
99 99 99 997
!
!
2
98
2
97
936
74
1000
Step 2:
es
o
5 Squar
and V t
new
I
Sample new value of
08)
Comp ute P c, B, RMW
dhera (20
and Wa
Comp utefrom Vickery
W
RM
B,
10
08
re
ssu
P re rval)
tral
te
Cen our in
(6 h
928 !
924 !
4
97
970
966
10
0
998
3
94
5
94
890
on
981!
49
993
ed
turn
991
08)
987
910
985
!
1
95
983
930
1
96
986
984
982
985
987
!
!
974
950
69
946
6
97
"
949
2
98
960
954
948
Central Pressure
(mb)
970
90
al, 20
ry et
icke o f site
l (V
ode 0 km
p 4:
Ste field m in 25 V t, r}
d
ith
Win orm w RMW ,
if st {P c, B,
f
V=
Step 3:
Storm Filling
2005)
Central pressure filling (Vickery,
B filling
88
973
TX
990
!9
W er
torm
p 1:
Ste li ze S d RM
an
ia
Init ple B
Sam p ute I
Com
s
term
ror
11
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph) - Modeled
Charley Validation Summary
Hurricane Charley - KPGD

150
120
90
60
120
y = 0.98x
R = 0.92
100
30
0
8/13/04 18:00
80
60
40
Right
Left
20
0
0
8/13/04 19:00
8/13/04 20:00
8/13/04 21:00
20
40
60
80
100
120
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph) - Observations
8/13/04 22:00
Time (UTC)
Mean Wind Speed (mph)
Hurricane Charley - KPGD
ASOS
Description
KFMY
KMCO
KSFB
KORL
KMIA
KMLB
KPBI
KRSW
FCMP T0
FCMP T1
FCMP T2
FCMP T3
SAUF1
Fort Myers International Airport

Orlando International Airport
Orlando Sanford International Airport
Orlando Executive International Airport
Miami International Airport
Melbourne Regional Airport
Palm Beach International Airport
Ft Myers Regional Airport
FCMP Tower 0
FCMP Tower 1
FCMP Tower 2
FCMP Tower 3
St Augustine C-MAN Platform
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
8/13/04 18:00
8/13/04 19:00
8/13/04 20:00
Time (UTC)
8/13/04 21:00
8/13/04 22:00
Peak Gust Speed

(mph)
Obs
Model
85
81
107
109
94
92
87
98
41
34
49
53
41
37
81
70
54
59
76
82
49
46
39
43
71
65
Why Lower Wind Speeds?
New model produces more intense landfalling

hurricanes than the old model but results in lower wind
speeds.
Lower winds largely associated with a new statistical
model for the Holland B parameter, which controls the
wind-pressure relationship.
Paper describing the statistical model for B was
published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology in
December 2008.
13
Holland B defines the width and

peakedness of the wind field
60
B=
B=
B=
B=
50
40
RMW
p(r ) pc p exp
0.75
1
1.3
1.5
-1
(ms )
Gradient Balance Wind Speed
RMW B
RMW B Bp exp[( r ) ] r 2 f 2
)
VG (
4
r
30
20
10
0
0
1/ 2
fr
2
10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
VG max
1020
1010
Pressure e (hPa)
Bp
e
1000
990
980
B=
B=
B=
B=
970
960
950
0.75
1
1.3
1.5
940
930
0
10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
14
Holland B Pressure Fits

Andrew -1992/08/23-0542,B=1.6,p=75mb,RMW=11km
Andrew -1992/08/23-0550,B=1.7,p=79mb,RMW=13km
1020
1020
1000
1000
Pressure(hPa)
Pressure(hPa)
980
960
940
980
960
940
150
100
50
50
Radius(km )
1020
1020
1000
1000
Pressure(hPa)
Pressure(hPa)
150
Luis-1995/09/04-1704,B=1.5,p=71mb,RMW=38.5km
980
960
940
980
960
940
150
100
50
50
Radius(km )
100
150
Radius(km )
Floyd-1999/09/15-0518,B=1.15,p=80mb,RMW=66km
Floyd-1999/09/15-0525,B=1.1,p=81mb,RMW=65km
1020
1020
1000
1000
Pressure(hPa)
Pressure(hPa)
100
Radius(km )
Luis-1995/09/04-1700,B=1.4,p=71mb,RMW=42km
980
960
940
980
960
940
150
100
50
50
Radius(km )
100
150
Radius(km )
15
Effect of Holland B on
Predicted Wind Speeds
Wilmington,NC
PeakGustWindSpeed(mph)
200
BfromVickery, etal.(2000)
BfromVickeryandWadhera(2008)
150
100
50
0
1
10
100
ReturnPeriod(years)
1000
16
Wind Speed Comparisons

ASCE 7-10 Equivalent
(V700/1.6)
ASCE 7-98 through 7-05

90(40)
100(45)
110(49)
110(49)
90(40)
120(54)
110(49)
120(54)
130(58)
130(58)
140(63)
90(40)
120(54)
100(45)
110(49)
17
700 Year Return Period Winds

114(51)
120(54)
130(58)
108(48)
140(63)
114(51)
114(51)
140(63)
150(67)
150(67)
140(63)
130(58)
120(54)
110(49)
160(72)
170(76)
114(51)
150(67)
120(54)
130(58)140(63)
110(49)
140(63)
150(67)
160(72)
170(76)
180(80)
180(80)
120(54)
130(58)
140(63)
150(67)
158(71)
158(71)
Location
Hawaii
Guam
Virgin Islands
American Samoa
Vmph
129
196
167
158
(m/s)
(58)
(88)
(75)
(71)
150(67) 160(72)
170(76)
Puerto Rico
18
Wind speeds at selected locations

Location
ASCE 7-05
Exposure C
Bar Harbor, Maine

Boston, MA
Hyannis, MA
New Port, RI
Southampton, NY
Atlantic City, NJ
Wrightsville Beach, NC
Folly Beach, SC
Miami Beach
Clearwater, FL
Panama City, FL
Biloxi, MS
Galveston, TX
Port Aransas, TX
Hawaii
Guam
V700 / 1.6
Exposure C
95
103
112
109
110
102
119
115
136
115
107
129
119
117
103
155
97
106
117
117
120
114
132
131
145
128
129
138
131
134
105
170
Exposure D
103
112
122
119
119
111
129
125
148
125
116
140
129
127
112
168
Simulated vs. Historical

Maximum Wind Speeds
10
100
Camille
1000
10
100
1000
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1
Labor Day
Andrew
1926
Charley
Donna
Camille
1926
Frederic
100
Florida
Katrina
Elena
1
10
MS/AL
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Carmen
Rita
Katrina
Audrey
1
1000
Betsy
Louisiana
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Andrew
Carla
1932
1900
1
Audrey
Celia
Texas
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
100
1000
20
Peak Gust Wind Speeds

Anywhere in US vs. Return Period
150
Charley
Wind Speed (mph)
Labor Day
Camille
Hazel
200
Andrew
Betsy (LA)
Carla
250
ARA Modeled
Probabilistic
Powell & Reinhold (2007)
Powell (2007)
Powell & Aberson (2001)
Dunion et al, (2003)
HWind
FIU FCHLPM
Houston & Powell (2003)
Goldman & Ushijima (1974)
100
50
0
1
10
100
1000

Reintroduction of Exposure D in
Hurricane- Prone Regions
Research showed that the roughness of ocean does

not continue to increase with increasing wind speed
and Exposure D is valid
Exposure D
Analysis of dropsonde data

indicate that at high wind speeds
the ocean roughness does not
continue to increase as
previously thought.
Reduced drag possibly due to
surface bubbles and/or sea
spray.
Limits the aerodynamic
roughness length to a value
comparable to that used to
50
define Exposure D.
100
Height (m)
10
0.1
0.01
0.001
0.0001
0
10
20
30
40
WInd Speed (m/sec)
23
AerodynamicSurfaceRoughness(m)
Roughness Length vs. Wind

Speed
CAT1
CAT2 CAT3
CAT4
CAT5
ExposureB
0.1
OldModel(ASCE705)
ExposureC
0.01
ExposureD
NewModel (LargeHurricanes)
NewModel (SmallHurricanes)
0.001
EstimatesfromDropsondes
0.0001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
HourlyMeanWindSpeedOverWater(m/sec)
24
Windborne Debris Region
ASCE 7-05 Standard

V > 120 or 110 within one mile of coast
Exact Mapping (new 700 year map)
1201.6=152~150
110 1.6=139~140
Implemented
V > 140 or 130 within one mile of coast
Results in less area within WBD Region than in the
ASCE 7-05
25
ASCE 7-10 Windborne

Debris Region
26
Wind Map Summary
New data and data analysis indicate that the ASCE 7-05
hurricane wind speeds were generally conservative
Introduction of ultimate wind speed maps
LRFD Wind Load Factor = 1.0
ASD Wind Load Factor
= 0.6
Specific maps for each building category
Exposure D for hurricane coastline
New windborne debris region results in less area subject
to windborne debris design criteria

ASCE Wind Map by Peter Vickery

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ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map

Rationale behind 300, 700 and 1700 return period

Facts About the ASCE 7-05 Wind

In most of the non-hurricane US mainland, the

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

ASCE 7-10 Wind Maps

New Hurricane Simulation Model

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

709 1000 1697

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

709 1000 1697

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Basis of Design Wind Speeds

New Hurricane Simulation Model

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Return Period (Years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Additional Data in New Model

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

and Long . direction

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Wind Model Overview

Described in peer reviewed engineering and

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Track Model Verification

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph) - Modeled

Charley Validation Summary

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Hurricane Charley - KPGD

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph) - Observations

Mean Wind Speed (mph)

Hurricane Charley - KPGD

Fort Myers International Airport

Peak Gust Speed

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Why Lower Wind Speeds?

New model produces more intense landfalling

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Holland B defines the width and

Gradient Balance Wind Speed

Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)

Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Holland B Pressure Fits

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Wind Speed Comparisons

ASCE 7-98 through 7-05

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

700 Year Return Period Winds

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Wind speeds at selected locations

Bar Harbor, Maine

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Simulated vs. Historical

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Return Period (years)

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Peak Gust Wind Speeds

Wind Speed (mph)

Return Period (years)