Professional Documents
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CONTENTS
1
19
35
35
1949.10-1950.6
41
1950.6-1978.12
57
1979.1-1995.6
77
1995.6-2008.5
107
111
111
116
122
129
138
151
167
174
179
179
ECFA
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327
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ECFA
201310APEC
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ECFA
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201052012
20128102
20128104
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20143
201431548
Richard P. Rumelt, Good Strategy, Bad strategy : The Difference and Why It Matters (New York:
Crown Business, 2011), p.19.
7
20018
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201310
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12
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2013946
10
199412170-1831949-1959
199312365-381
19971208-232
11
19943
199736019974
228-26920047238
12
3520011
59-63
13
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The Man Who Changed China: The Life and
Legacy of Jiang Zemin20051224-235
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15
16
17
18
19
14
200941602009868-72
20065318-350Murray Scot Tanner
Andrew ScobellLarry M. Wortzel
Civil-military Change in China2006465-98
2008
42008820-24Susan L. Shirk, China: Fragile Superpower (Oxford: Oxford University
Press, 2008), pp.224-2612000-2007
200712310-332
15
2012522
http://140.119.184.164/taipeiforum/view_pdf/04.pdf
325201358-12
2013531
http://opinion.cw.com.tw/blog/profile/70/article/377
2013430http://www.tri.org.tw/trinews/doc/1020430_1.
pdf942013
39-612013
2013429www.taiwanthinktank.org
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9INK2012478
17
20129
271
18
274
19
20111
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1.1
22
Richard C. Bush
1.1
2013929-45
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2014022622
21
2012630
22
Richard C. Bush
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199612
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24
26
Michael D. SwaineAndrew Scobell
1980
2008
27
Chas Freeman
28
Robert Sutter
23
2013926
24
Jonathan Unger (ed.), The Nature of Chinese Politics (New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2002).
25
199641-31
26
26-29
Michael D. Swaine, Chinese Decision-Making Regarding Taiwan, 1979-2000 in David M. Lampton,
ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, (Redwood, CA :
Stanford University Press, 2001), p.289-336; Andrew Scobell, Chinas Use of Military Force: Beyond
the Great Wall and Long March (Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2003), pp.171-191.
28
Chas W. Freeman, Jr., The Taiwan Problem and China's Strategy for Resolving It, Remarks at the
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Center for Naval Analysis, Sept. 12, 2012, website: http://chasfreeman.net/the-taiwan-problem-andchinas-strategy-for-resolving-it/
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30
31
32
33
34
29
Robert Sutter, Taiwans Future: Narrowing Straits, NBR Analysis (Seattle, Washington: National
Bureau of Asian Research, 2011), p.18.
30
Ibid.
31
2006288-89
32
NOWNEWS2010
1020http://legacy.nownews.com/2010/10/20/pda-162-2656532.htm
33
2013961
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StratforGeorge Friedman
35
36
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39
40
41
William T. Tow
42
43
35
36
2012
937-38
37
20095
38
200820093200931012
39
2002
212004919-48
40
131-30
41
38120071
217-226
42
2002974-80William T. Tow, AsiaPacific Strategic Relations: Seeking Convergent Security (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
2001), p.225-277.
43
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45
46
47
48
49
Alexander Wendt
44
2012121112
45
60227200911129-32
46
615020071270-74
47
20091
48
4062001111213-30
49
201271-31
50
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Richard C. Bush , Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait (Washington,DC: Brookings
Institution Press, 2006).
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51
1978
52
53
1949-19551955
1955
54
19791987
55
19551979
51
198914-5
1999122
200184
1995166
200547-70
20036
5819492008
410223-32
52
2006175-240
53
2002312-3
200560-1200212334
54
26200960-61
173200991-7
28420098
33
55
20012207-233
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56
2008
1949-19551955-19781979
57
1949-1983
vs.1983-2013
201211
58
59
1
1949-195821958-19793
1979-199441994
60
2012
11949195821950
11994
319871998
124200020085
2008
61
62
12
34
56
6422
20081237-38
57
199631724
58
20132387-388
He Di, The Last Campaign to Unify China: The CCPs Unrealized Plan to Liberate Taiwan, 19491950, in Mark A. Ryan, David M. Finkelstein, and Michael A. McDevitt (eds.), Chinese Warghting:
The PLA Experence Since 1949 (New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2003), p.73.
59
60
20129
3-12
61
1949-2000420049
189-2282812199512
4
62
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2013
1949-1979
1979-1983198319941995-1997
19972002
63
64
65
20085
66
67
68
69
63
1979-201320139
64
20067
65
20097
66
2272009111
33
67
10220084
1-6
68
200932009
344-46
200952009522-23
69
200910
200912009115-16
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72 2182009246-47
20075200710
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70
71
72
73
74
75
76
8-1122
307
1232009256-62
70
200941602009868-72
71
2008
42008820-24
72
2014031015
73
201271-16
74
4
1602009859-63
75
201271-4
76
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77
78
79
80
81
82
20123
1.2
1.2
77
1999114-22
78
201031615
79
20102215
80
201012613
81
2012554
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1995510
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15
1721
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2012
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84
85
83
20129
24-27
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20124174
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86
87
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Henry Kissinger
89
1648
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
86
20124174
87
20124412
88
20124512
89
199311
148-172
90
19993107-108
91
Henry Kissinger, On China (New York: The Penguin Press, 2011), p.515.
92
Richard C. Bush, Untying The Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait (Washington, DC.: Brookings
Institution Press, 2005),pp.108-139;
201112210-215
93
4220123212
94
2011108
95
96
Max G. Manwaring, The Strategic Logic of the Contemporary Security Dilemma (Carlisle, Pa.: SSI,
2011); Michael Richardson, A Time Bomb for Global Trade: Maritime-related Terrorism in an Age of
Weapons of Mass Destruction (London: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2004).
97
21
2006517-20
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98
Niall Ferguson, Civilization: The West and the Rest (New York: Allen Lane, 2011); Martin Jacques,
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99
100
101
102
60
60
When China Rules the WorldThe End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order (New
York: Penguin Press HC, 2009).
99
Anthony Giddens
The Politics of Climate Change2011
515
100
21
2006550-64
101
20095
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201051312
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103
James Fallows
104
105
106
107
108
109
103
Andrew J. Nathan, Andrew Scobell, Chinas Search for Security (New York: Columbia University
Press, 2012), pp.69.
104
105
199547
106
199533-4
107
4062001111213-30
108
20029303-372
1999341-76
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109
20067
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110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
110
2001884-94
111
2009111
2009137-40
112
19993365-388
113
2009240-41
114
115
Martin Jacques,When China Rules The World: The Rise of the Middle
Kingdom and the End of the Western World,London: Penguin Books, 2012), pp.476-477
Joshua Cooper Ramo
The Age of Unthinkable200910200-205
116
20111176
117
1999736
Anand Girdharadas, Chinese Dreams: An Essay, Amazon Digital Services, January 17, 2011.
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199537
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