PREDICTING

THE FUTURE OF PIERMONT MARSH

IN AN ERA OF ACCELERATING SEA LEVEL RISE

Tidal Wetland Elevations

a.
5,000
Years
Ago
5,000
years
ago
a. 5,000 Years Ago

b.
Today
b. Today

5,000Ago
Years Ago
a. 5,000a.Years

Today

b. Todayb. Today

Future Future
d.lossand
Complete
losswhere
of wetlands
where
c. wetland
Substantial
loss where house
d.
Complete
of
wetlands
sediment
peat
formation
c. Substantial
losswetland
where house
Future
Future
is movedis or
upland is vacant
bulkhead
protects
housesea
from rising sea
is
moved
or
upland
vacant
bulkhead
protects
house
from
rising
losswhere
of wetlands where
c. wetland
Substantial
loss where house
d. Complete d.
loss Complete
of wetlands
c. Substantial
losswetland
where house

movedis orvacant
upland is vacant
is moved or isupland

Future

wetland migration potential

where there is vacant land

bulkhead
houseseafrom rising sea
bulkhead protects
houseprotects
from rising

complete wetland loss

where shoreline is hardened

Figure
1. Evolution
of a as
Marsh
SeaRises.
Level Rises.
Tidal wetlands
are
foundthe
where
the

Figure 1.
Evolution
of a Marsh
Sea as
Level
Tidal wetlands
are found
where
elevationofthelandisbetweenhighandlowtides,withtidalmarshesgenerallyabovemeansea
elevationofthelandisbetweenhighandlowtides,withtidalmarshesgenerallyabovemeansea

Figure 1.
Evolution
offlats
a Marsh
as
Sea
Level
Rises.
Tidal
wetlands
are
found
where
thewhere
Figure
1.
Evolution
of
a
Marsh
as
Sea
Level
Rises.

Tidal
wetlands
are
found
the
level
and
tidal
below
mean
sea
level.
(a)
When
sea
level
was
rising
rapidly,
tidal
wetlands
level and tidal flats below mean sea level. (a) When sea level was rising rapidly, tidal wetlands
elevationofthelandisbetweenhighandlowtides,withtidalmarshesgenerallyabovemeansea
elevationofthelandisbetweenhighandlowtides,withtidalmarshesgenerallyabovemeansea
tendedtobeanarrowfringealongtheshore,determinedbytiderangeandtheslopeoftheland,as

tendedtobeanarrowfringealongtheshore,determinedbytiderangeandtheslopeoftheland,as

level and
tidal
flats
below
mean
sea
level.
(a)
When(a)
sea
levelsea
was
rising
rapidly,
tidal
wetlands
level
and
tidal
flats
below
mean
sea
level.
When
level
was
rising
rapidly,
tidal through
wetlands
both
the
landward
and
seaward
boundaries
migrated
inland.
But
vertical
accretion

both the landward and seaward boundaries migrated inland. But vertical accretion through
tendedtobeanarrowfringealongtheshore,determinedbytiderangeandtheslopeoftheland,as

sedimentationandpeatformationhaveenabledwetlandstokeeppacewiththerelativelyslowrate

tendedtobeanarrowfringealongtheshore,determinedbytiderangeandtheslopeoftheland,as
sedimentationandpeatformationhaveenabledwetlandstokeeppacewiththerelativelyslowrate
both the
landward
and seaward
boundaries
migratedmigrated
inland. But
vertical
through through
ofsealevelriseduringthelastseveralthousandyears.Assealevelrose,thelandwardboundary
both
the landward
and seaward
boundaries
inland.
Butaccretion
vertical accretion

THE FUTURE OF TIDAL HABITATS

KEY PARAMETERS
ELEVATION
ACCRETION
SEA LEVEL RISE
SALINITY

SLAMM
Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model

KEY PARAMETERS
ELEVATION

SLAMM
Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model

KEY PARAMETERS

High Marsh

ELEVATION

Current: 3mm/year

ACCRETION

Medium: 6mm/year
High: 11mm/year

High Marsh: 4mm/year

SLAMM
Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model

KEY PARAMETERS

Baseline

Low EsAmate

(2000-2004)

(10th PercenAle)

Middle Range
(25th - 75th PercenAle)

High EsAmate
(90th PercenAle)

ELEVATION
ACCRETION
SEA LEVEL RISE
rolling 5 year average
2000 - 2011: 6.76mm/yr
6.1 inches in 2025

2020s

4 - 8

10

2050s

11 - 21

30

2080s

13

18 - 39

58

2100

15

22 - 50

75

(INCHES)
SLAMM
Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model

KEY PARAMETERS
ELEVATION
ACCRETION
SEA LEVEL RISE
SALINITY

SLAMM
Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model

high A - slow SLR

med A - med SLR

STARTING CONDITIONS
(2007)

low A - fast SLR

high A - slow SLR

med A - med SLR

2020

low A - fast SLR

high A - slow SLR

med A - med SLR

2040

low A - fast SLR

high A - slow SLR

med A - med SLR

2060

low A - fast SLR

high A - slow SLR

med A - med SLR

2080

low A - fast SLR

high A - slow SLR

med A - med SLR

2100

low A - fast SLR

120#
Hectares(of(Tidal(Wetlands((TF,(RFM,(IFM,(SS)(
118#

Hectares(of(+dal(wetland(

116#
114#

low#SLR#&#low#accre7on#
low#SLR#&#medium#accre7on#

112#

low#SLR#&#high#accre7on#
medium#SLR#&#low#accre7on#

110#

medium#SLR#&#medium#accre7on#
medium#SLR#&#high#accre7on#

108#

high#SLR#&#low#accre7on#

106#

high#SLR#&#medium#accre7on#
high#SLR#&#high#accre7on#

104#

The pace of sea

level rise appears
far more
important than
the rate of
accretion in
determining
marsh fate

102#
100#
2010#

2020#

2030#

2040#

2050#

2060#

2070#

2080#

2090#

2100#

Year(

Tidal Wetland Futures

100"

Hectares(of(Transi-onal(Tidal(Wetlands((High(Marsh(+(Scrub/Shrub)(

Hectares(of(transi-onal(-dal(wetland(

90"

80"
low"SLR"&"low"accre7on"

70"

low"SLR"&"medium"accre7on"
low"SLR"&"high"accre7on"

60"

medium"SLR"&"low"accre7on"

50"

medium"SLR"&"medium"accre7on"

40"
medium"SLR"&"high"accre7on"

30"

high"SLR"&"low"accre7on"

20"

high"SLR"&"medium"accre7on"

Transitional marsh
and high marsh -
(Phragmites
habitats) - declines
over the 21st
Century unless sea
level rise slows
down

high"SLR"&"high"accre7on"

10"

0"

2010"

2020"

2030"

2040"

2050"

2060"

2070"

2080"

2090"

2100"

Year(

Tidal Wetland Futures

100"

Hectares(of(Transi-onal(Tidal(Wetlands((High(Marsh(+(Scrub/Shrub)(

Hectares(of(transi-onal(-dal(wetland(

90"

80"
low"SLR"&"low"accre7on"

70"

low"SLR"&"medium"accre7on"
low"SLR"&"high"accre7on"

60"

medium"SLR"&"low"accre7on"

50"

medium"SLR"&"medium"accre7on"

40"
medium"SLR"&"high"accre7on"

30"

high"SLR"&"low"accre7on"

20"

high"SLR"&"medium"accre7on"
high"SLR"&"high"accre7on"

10"

0"

2010"

2020"

2030"

2040"

2050"

2060"

Year(

2070"

2080"

2090"

2100"

Transitional marsh
and high marsh -
(Phragmites
habitats) - declines
over the 21st
Century unless sea
level rise slows
down
- increasing salinity
may accelerate this
process
Tidal Wetland Futures

Given current sea level rise rates,

high marsh habitat is likely to be
greatly reduced or disappear.
(Phragmites is likely to track this
shift.)
To maintain high marsh may
require significant management
inputs (i.e. physical structures or
assisted accretion).

PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF PIERMONT MARSH

IN AN ERA OF ACCELERATING SEA LEVEL RISE