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UNIVERSITY OF JOHANNESBURG
Instructions:
SECTION A [35]
d. Stationarity (2)
Stationary time series do not have a long memory but can exhibit
trend behaviour through the incorporation of a deterministic trend.
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Course: EKN03X7
June examination 2008
f. Cointegration (2)
If Y and X have unit roots but some linear combination of them is
stationary then we can say the Y and X are cointegrated.
i. Multicollinearity (2)
Problem that arises if some or all of the explanatory variables are
highly correlated with each other.
j. Heteroskedasticity (2)
When the error term in a model does not have a constant variance
(which cause the t-stats to be misleading), is known as
heteroskedasticity.
4. Give a complete description of the steps used to select the optimal lag
length in a distributed lag model. (4)
Step 1: Choose the maximum possible lag length, qmax , that seems
reasonable to you.
Step 2: Estimate the distributed lag model
Yt = α + β0 X t + β1 X t −1 + .... + βq max X t −q max + et
If the p-value for testing βq = 0 is less than the significance level you
max
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Course: EKN03X7
June examination 2008
If the p-value for testing βq max −1 =0 is less than the significance level you
choose then go no further. Use qmax −1 as lag length. Otherwise go on
to the next step.
Step 4: Estimate the distributed lag model
Yt = α + β0 X t + β1 X t −1 + .... + βq −2 X t −q +2 + et
max max
If the p-value for testing βq max −2 = 0 is less than the significance level you
choose then go no further. Use qmax − 2 as lag length. Otherwise go on
to the next step, etc.
5. Name three factors that will influence the accuracy of the coefficients in a
model. (3)
Large number of data points.
Less scattering / less variability in errors
More variability in X
6. Give the conditions when the following models are stationary and when
they are nonstationary:
a. Yt = α +φYt −1 + et
(2)
Stationary if φ<1 and nonstationary if φ=1
Section B [12]
Data on the real effective exchange rate (REER) of South Africa is given.
Use the data provided and answer the following questions.
2. Calculate and interpret the two measures of central tendency for the
REER in South Africa.
(4)
Mean = 110.21 - The average REER in the sample period was 110.21
Median = 111.72 – The middle value if the values have been ordered from the
smallest to the largest is 111.72
Mode = N/A – There is no value that occurred the most in the sample period.
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Course: EKN03X7
June examination 2008
SECTION C [25]
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Course: EKN03X7
June examination 2008
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Course: EKN03X7
June examination 2008
SECTION D [35]
3. State the regression model when South Africa is in the festive season. (2)
Retail = 52023.77 + 11154.45(1) + 0.286604PDI – 412.6818PPI
= 63178.22 + 0.29 PDI – 412.68PPI
4. State the regression model when South Africa is not in the festive season.
(2)
Retail = 52023.77 + 11154.45(0) + 0.286604PDI – 412.6818PPI
= 52023.77 + 0.286604PDI – 412.6818PPI
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Course: EKN03X7
June examination 2008
9. What can you do in order to rectify the problems (if any) in 7 and 8? Apply
it to the given model and give the new t-statistics for the variables. (4)
Seeing that we have autocorrelation AND heteroskedasticity we have to
apply the Newey-West method to the model. New t-stats:
C- 9.419901
Dummy - 18.05371
PDI - 14.85578
PPI - -5.914482
10. Use the model exactly as it is and add one lag of PDI to the regression.
Report your results.
(2)
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Course: EKN03X7
June examination 2008
11. Are you going to keep the lag in the regression model? Why or why not?
(2)
Yes, seeing that it is statistically significant (t = 3.12 which is > 2)
SECTION E [8]
t-Statistic Prob.*
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Course: EKN03X7
June examination 2008
It seems that investment contains a unit root on the level. Next we test the first
difference:
t-Statistic Prob.*
Prime:
t-Statistic Prob.*
Because the two variables are not integrated to the same order we can not go
further and use the Engle-Granger test in order to test for cointegration.
There is therefore NOT a long term relationship between investment and prime.
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