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Lecture objectives
What it is not:
Simply joining the price-quantity observations
on a graph does not generate the demand
curve for the commodity.
Reason:
Each price-quantity observations is given by
the intersection of a different (but observed)
demand and supply curve of the commodity.
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Observational Research
data from observed behavior
Consumer Clinics
data from laboratory experiments
Market Experiments
data from real market tests
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Consumer surveys:
Involve questioning sample of consumers
about how they respond to changes in price of
commodity, income, price of related
commodities, advertising expenditures, credit
incentives and other determinants of demand.
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Observational research:
Gathering of info on consumer preferences by
watching them buying and using products.
Using scanners at stores see how many
people normally buys the product or how
many people buys the product after the
commercial, etc.
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Problems:
Observation alone not enough to understand
consumers response.
Cannot determine consumers demographic
characteristics age, sex, education, income,
etc.
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Consumer clinics:
Laboratory experiments where participants
are given a sum of money and asked to spend
in a simulated store to see how they react to
changes in price, packaging, displays, price of
competing products, etc.
Participants can be selected to represent
socio-economic characteristics of the actual
market.
Problems:
Questionable results because its not real
market environment.
Cost of conducting experiments is high can
only use small sample. Cannot represent
market behavior.
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Market experiments:
Conducted in actual marketplace.
Select several markets with similar socioeconomic characteristics and change product
price, packaging, promotion, etc. in different
stores; and record consumer responses
(purchases) in different markets.
Market experiments:
Can be conducted in large scale ensure
validity of the result.
Consumers not aware of the experiment,
would act naturally to changes.
Useful in process of introducing new product
where no data exist yet.
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Problems:
Cost is high. Can be conducted on limited
scale or short period of time.
Cannot prevent extraneous occurrences bad
weather, may bias the result.
Competitors can sabotage the experiment by
changing price and other determinants under
their control.
Problems:
Competitors can also observe the experiment
and gain information that benefit them.
Firm might lose customer when they raise
price for their product in the experiment. The
customer may find another product that
he/she likes to replace the firms product.
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Regression Analysis
Regression Analysis
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Regression Analysis
Regression Analysis
Year
10
44
40
11
42
12
46
11
48
12
52
13
54
13
58
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Regression Analysis
Scatter diagram shows positive relationship
between level of firms advertising
expenditures and its sales revenue higher
advertisement associated with higher
revenue. The relationship is approximately
linear.
Scatter Diagram
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Regression Analysis
Regression Analysis
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Regression Analysis
The slope of line will provide an estimate of
the increase in sales revenue that the firm can
expect with each $1 million increase in its
advertising expenditures. This gives rough
estimate of linear relationship between sales
revenue (Y) and advertising expenditures (X).
Y = a + bX
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Regression Analysis
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Regression Analysis
Y = a + bX
a is vertical intercept of linear relationship and
gives the value of Y when X = 0, while b is
slope of line and gives estimate of increase in
Y resulting from each unit increase in X.
Problem:
Different researcher/manager would fit a
somewhat different line to the same data
point and obtain different results.
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Regression Analysis
Regression analysis is a statistical technique
for obtaining the line that best fit data points
according to an objective statistical criterion.
Thus, all researchers looking at the same data
would get exactly the same result.
Regression line is obtained by minimizing the
sum of the squared vertical deviations of each
points from the regression line called
ordinary least-squares method (OLS).
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Exercise
Solution
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Exercise
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Solution
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Exercise
Solution
The major advantage is that a firm can alter one or
more key decision variables in one market and
compare the outcome to another similar market in
which the variables did not change, or were
changed in a different manner. The method can
generate valuable information about pricing and
advertising policy. The main drawback is that all
other factors (including population size and
demographics, consumer incomes, tastes,
competitor prices) must be comparable. Of course,
this is not always possible. Controlled market
studies are also expensive to conduct.
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Exercise
Solution
Regression analysis uses uncontrolled data to
generate an equation that allows one to
measure the separate influences of multiple
explanatory variables (in the form of numerical
coefficients) on total demand. In addition, the
analysis provides statistics that measure the
accuracy (goodness of fit) of the equation.
Accordingly, the regression approach can
produce the same kinds of results as a carefully
controlled market study.
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Yt a bX
t
n
t 1
)
e (Y Y ) (Y a bX
et Yt Yt
t 1
2
t
t 1
t 1
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(X
t 1
X )(Yt Y )
(X
t 1
X)
a Y bX
Estimation Example
Time
Xt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
9
11
12
11
12
13
13
14
15
120
n 10
X
t 1
X 120
X t
12
10
t 1 n
Yt
44
40
42
46
48
52
54
58
56
60
500
n
Y 500
120
t 1
Y 500
Y t
50
10
t 1 n
Xt X
Yt Y
-2
-3
-1
0
-1
0
1
1
2
3
-6
-10
-8
-4
-2
2
4
8
6
10
n
(X
t 1
t 1
( X t X )2
12
30
8
0
2
0
4
8
12
30
106
4
9
1
0
1
0
1
1
4
9
30
X ) 2 30
106
b
3.533
30
X )(Yt Y ) 106
a 50 (3.533)(12) 7.60
(X
( X t X )(Yt Y )
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Estimation Example
n 10
n
X
t 1
(X
t 1
t 1
Y 500
t 1
Y
t 1
X t 120
12
n
10
Yt 500
50
n 10
X ) 2 30
106
b
3.533
30
X )(Yt Y ) 106
a 50 (3.533)(12) 7.60
(X
120
t 1
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Tests of Significance
(Y Y )
( n k ) ( X X )
e
(n k ) ( X
sb
2
t
X )2
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Tests of Significance
Tests of Significance
Example Calculation
Example Calculation
Time
Xt
Yt
Yt
et Yt Yt
et2 (Yt Yt ) 2
( X t X )2
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42.90
1.10
1.2100
40
39.37
0.63
0.3969
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42
46.43
-4.43
19.6249
12
46
49.96
-3.96
15.6816
11
48
46.43
1.57
2.4649
12
52
49.96
2.04
4.1616
13
54
53.49
0.51
0.2601
13
58
53.49
4.51
20.3401
14
56
57.02
-1.02
1.0404
10
15
60
60.55
-0.55
0.3025
65.4830
30
e (Y Y )
t 1
2
t
t 1
65.4830
(X
t 1
(Y Y )
( n k ) ( X X )
2
X ) 30
2
sb
Tests of Significance
Calculation of the t Statistic
b 3.53
6.79
sb 0.52
t 1
2
t
t 1
(X
t 1
65.4830
0.52
(10 2)(30)
e (Y Y )
t
(Y Y )
( n k ) ( X X )
t
65.4830
X ) 2 30
sb
65.4830
0.52
(10 2)(30)
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Questions or comments?
Reference:
Salvatore (2008), Ch. 4
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