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Renewables: Past, Present

and Future
By Dr Ian Mays MBE - Managing Director, Renewable Energy Systems Group
Renewable energy currently provides around 16% of
global final energy consumption. Of this 10% comes from
traditional biomass, which is mainly used for heating,
and 3.4% from hydroelectricity. Modern renewables
(small hydro, modern biomass, wind, solar, geothermal,
and biofuels) account for another 2.8% and are growing
very rapidly. Wind power is growing at the rate of 30%
annually, with worldwide installed capacity reaching
198 gigawatts (GW) in 2010 across Europe, Asia and the
Americas.
Climate change and energy security concerns have led to
increasing government support for renewables, driving
specific renewable energy legislation and incentives.
For the UK, over the next ten years, around a quarter
of the existing generating capacity will shut down as
our coal and nuclear power stations reach the end of
their useful life. More than 110bn in investment will
be needed to build the equivalent of 20 larger power
stations and upgrade the grid. In the longer term
electricity demand is expected to increase dramatically
as we shift more transport and heating electricity.
The Government has committed to
modernising and transforming the UKs
electricity system to ensure future
supplies are secure, low
carbon and affordable.

This means that the Government will expect to see a


reduction in greenhouse gas emissions across the whole
economy in line with their carbon budgets, with a view to
achieving at least an 80% reduction by 2050.

What are the biggest challenges the industry has


overcome?
RES has been in the renewable energy business for over
30 years. In that time the biggest challenge has been in
getting renewable energy onto the mainstream energy
agenda, rather than the margins. Several factors have
helped to inform and shape the debate, particularly the
global issues of climate change and energy security.
The economics of renewable energy has also presented
a major challenge, and the industry has responded by
continuous development of the technologies to improve
their performance and reduce costs.
What are the major challenges facing the industry in the
future?
The scale of the challenges faced by the industry is
enormous. For example, meeting the Government
renewables targets set for 2020 is expected to require
another 38 GW of onshore and offshore wind capacity to
be installed. This, for wind alone, is likely to require over
100bn of new capital expenditure.
Given the number of Government policy changes or
reviews currently underway (such as Electricity Market
Reform, introduction of a capacity mechanism and
changes to planning legislation) the industry needs
to ensure that these have outcomes that do
not undermine the delivery of the
capacity required

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to meet the targets, and that sufficient momentum is


established to achieve even more ambitious longer
term targets. The current poor and uncertain economic
climate can be expected to add significant further
challenges.
RES, as one of the leading organisations in the industry,
has been working hard to ensure that outcomes are
focused on what matters - the reduction in CO2 and
securing a clean and affordable continuous supply of
energy.
Success will depend on attracting the funding required
(both equity and debt) to deliver the targets. This will
increasingly come from non-traditional sources such as
pension funds and insurance companies. The industry
will also need to continue developing the technologies
involved, delivering better performance and lower overall
costs.
This brings us on to the additional challenge of
building the skilled workforce that will be required
across the whole of the industry, from engineering
through construction and onto operational services and
maintenance. RES has identified that there is a skills
gap and is working with schools, universities and other
industry players to ensure that the gap is narrowed or
closed entirely.
What is the biggest area of growth/development so far
in the UK?
So far the biggest area of growth and development has
been wind power where over the last 20 years we have
seen almost 6GW of capacity installed in the UK to date.
The first 1GW was completed in 2005 so it is clear that
the rate of installation has dramatically accelerated. The
addition of offshore wind farms has contributed much of
the recent growth and is set to continue major growth.
Over the same period wind power technology has also
changed. The earliest wind farms used turbines typically
of 300 to 500kW size. Todays machines are an order of
magnitude larger and are more efficient at producing
electricity from a given area, even at lower wind speeds.
Are there any industry shaping events we should
reference?
The partial meltdown and significant release of radiation
that occurred at Fukushima following the earthquake and
tsunami that hit Japan earlier this year caused Germany
and Switzerland to commit to phasing out nuclear
power. So far it has not dented the UK Governments
determination to push forward with replacing our ageing
fleet of reactors, but concerns are increasingly being
aired about the true costs, and the ability of the private
sector to finance and insure new projects.

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Perhaps the most critical recent event affecting the


industry has been the global banking crisis of 2008 and
the ongoing and indeed worsening economic problems
that have resulted. As governments focus on budget
deficit reduction there is increasing pressure on support
mechanisms for renewable energy and other low carbon
technologies. The perceived high costs of tackling
climate change and energy security, when the public are
faced with poor economic conditions, make this fertile
ground for the climate change sceptics and the fossil fuel
lobby. It is important that the industry continues to ensure
that both the governments and the public are made
aware of the real threats that climate change and energy
security pose to society.
What are the key milestones?
Key milestones have a habit of changing over time
dependent on a number of factors, often associated
with economic conditions and outlook. At the moment,
the focus for the industry is very much Government set
renewable targets for 2020 and the longer term goal of an
80% reduction in CO2 by 2050.
There is also the danger of looking at targets and
performance indicators as ends in themselves, whereas
the key driver is to achieve sustainable, clean and
economical supplies of energy. To achieve this we need to
keep national and global strategies under constant review
and amend targets and areas for investment accordingly.
What are the key things the industry should be pushing
for?
A clear and consistent energy policy framework with
better cross party and public support.
Sufficiently strong and durable incentive schemes
to drive the necessary investment and to establish
a stronger UK renewable industry (including
manufacturing).
Continuous improvement in the key renewable

technologies to drive down life cycle costs and make
renewable energy more competitive.
How would you sum up the industry currently and in
which direction should we be going?
The UK has established a vibrant and thriving renewables
industry that is up for the challenge of delivering the
large scale implementation required to achieve the
Governments targets.
What has been your proudest moment to date?
In 2001 RES completed the 214 turbine, 278MW, King
Mountain wind farm in Texas. At that time and for several
years subsequently, it was the biggest wind farm in the
world.

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