ASEAN Economic Community (MEA)

Indonesias Perspective: Service Sector Liberalisation

K i k i Ve r i c o ( L P E M F E U I )

http://synthesistblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/k4c4FQ.jpeg

AECs Challenges

ASEAN Economic Community: Challenges

http://www.aienetwork.org/images/infographs/may2013/full/how-well-is-asean-doing-in-achieving-the-aec.png

Achievements: Trade & Investment Arrangements in ASEAN

ASEAN Industrial Project

(AIP), ASEAN Industrial
Complementary (AIC),
ASEAN Industrial Joint
Ventures (AIJV), ASEAN
Industrial Cooperation
(AICO) and ASEAN
Investment Area (AIA)

118, 721

BFTA MTA

Global

i 1

(MFN)
Jagdish Bhagwati,1995
(RTAs are not effective while
BFTAs are Stumbling Block)

Pascal Lamy, 2007

(The pepper in the multilateral curry)

Regional

2
SubRegional
Connectivity

Close
(CU/EC)
Anne Krueger, 1970

Open
Regionalism

Ensuring
WTO accession
success

Sub-Regional
ECSC;
IMT, BIMP, SIJORI;
ITRO

Richard E Baldwin,1997
(BFTAs are Building Block)

Bilateral

ASEAN+
(A_FTA)

(First mover advantage &

Snowballing effect &
Triggered action)

3
H0: AEC will not be achieved throughout regional cooperation
H1: AEC will be achieved throughout Sub-Regional
Connectivity

H0: AEC will not be achieved throughout regional cooperation

H1: AEC will be achieved throughout A_FTA

Unilateral
Multilateral Variance

Source: Verico, Kiki, 2014

Dilemma FTA, FTA+

Open
Regionalism
(FTA, FTA+)

Trade Creation > Trade Diversion

Trade Diversion > Trade Creation

C:
LessCompetitive
Local Firms of
Member

B:
Intra
Investment
Creation

Close
Regionalism
(CU, EC)

Indonesia
o Model
o Graph

Paradox

C:
MostCompetitive
Firms of
Non-Member

B:
Extra
Investment
Creation

EU
History of
Anti-AFTA,
ACFTA, spirit of
Trade Law

Success story
of CU or EC

Source: Verico, Kiki, 2014

No Paradox

Changing
strategy from
non-members

FDI Inflows net ASEAN by Host Country:

2008-2012 (million US$)
FDI Inflows net, BOP, current US$, 2008-2012
10,000,000,000
5,000,000,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-5,000,000,000
-10,000,000,000
-15,000,000,000
-20,000,000,000
-25,000,000,000
-30,000,000,000
-35,000,000,000
-40,000,000,000

Singapore

Brunei

Malaysia

Thailand

Source: Own Description using GDF-WB data

Indonesia

Philippines

Vietnam

Laos

Cambodia

Myanmar

Among the top 11-priority products for the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) 2015

Healthcare, Air transport, Tourism,

e-ASEAN, Electronics, Automotive, Textiles, Wood, Fisheries,
Agriculture in general and Rubber

Bali Concord II :
the ASEAN commitment for the comprehensive trade-investment liberalization in
the AEC 2015 will be started on these 11-priority products
(the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, IISD, January 2007)

Tourism Related Sector

Malaysia

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Brunei
Myanmar

Singapore

Foreign
Ownership
100% foreign
ownership for
Hotel,
Restaurant but
4-5 Star Only
Maximum 51%
foreign
ownership
40% for Hotel
and 100% for
Restaurants
foreign
ownership
Up to 49%
foreign
ownership
100% Foreign
ownership
100% Foreign
ownership
No Restrictions
on foreign
ownership in
hotel

e-ASEAN
(Telecommunication)

Foreign
Ownership
maximum of
Malaysia
30%
maximum of
Thailand
49%
fully
Singapore
liberalized
maximum
Philippines
40%
maximum
49% for fixed
Indonesia
line and 65%
of mobile line
100% foreign
Cambodia, Laos Myanmar ownerships
are allowed
49%-65%
Vietnam
foreign
ownership

Air Transport
Indonesia, Vietnam,
Thailand
Philippines
Laos

Foreign
Ownership
maximum of
49%
maximum of
40%
100% foreign
ownership is
allowed

Foreign
Ownership
maximum
Malaysia
30%
maximum
Philippines
40%
maximum
Indonesia
67%
maximum
Thailand
49%
100% foreign
Laos, Singapore, Vietnam,
ownership is
Cambodia
allowed
maximum
Brunei
70%
maximum
Myanmar
80%
Health Care

Source: Nikomborirak & Jitdumrong, the AEC: A Work in Progress 2013

1st 10th Process of Service Liberalisation in AFAS

1. December 1997 (1st Round: Request & Offer)
2. December 1998 (1st Round: Request & Offer)
3. December 2001 (2nd Round: Common Sub-Sector: if minimum 4 countries then multilaterals)
4. September 2004 (3rd Round: Modified Common Sub-Sector)
5. December 2006 (4th Round: Modified Common Sub-Sector)
6. November 2007 (4th Round: Modified Common Sub-Sector)
7. February 2009 (5th Round: Negotiation according to the AEC Blueprint)
8. August 2011 (5th Round: Negotiation according to the AEC Blueprint)
9. 2013 (5th Round: Negotiation according to the AEC Blueprint)
10. 2015 (AEC)
MRA on Sector

Detail

Engineering

9-Dec-05

Nursing

8-Dec-06

Archtecture, Surveying

19-Dec-07

Medical Practicioners

26 February 2009

Dental Practicioners

27 February 2009

Accountancy Serivices

28 February 2009

ASEAN
Certification

License
from Home
Country

Source: Nikomborirak & Jitdumrong, the AEC: A Work in Progress 2013

License
from Host
Country

10

Mode 1: Lintas Batas; Mode 2: Konsumsi LN; Mode 3: Keberadaan Komersiil; Mode 4: Mobilitas Manusia
Ishido, 2011
Hoekman Index Indonesia: AFAS: 0,35; ACFTA: 0,04; AKFTA: 0,18 dan AANZFTA: 0,16
Hoekman Index AFAS > 0,5: Jasa Telekomunikasi (0,79), Jasa Pendidikan Dasar Menengah (0,63), Jasa
Rumah Sakit (0,63), Jasa Kesehatan Selain RS (0,75), Agen Perjalanan (0,69), Hotel dan Restoran (0,63)
Dee, 2013
Banking Services (max 51%) in fact 99%; Telekomunikasi (max 49%-51%) in fact 65%-95%
CSIS, Komitmen AFAS Paket 8
Jasa Profesional: Hukum (Pengacara Asing Max 20%), Akuntansi/Audit (max ekuitas 51%), Teknik & Arsitek
(max 51%), Jasa Komputer (max 51%), Jasa Telekomunikasi (49% beberapa 70%), Konstruksi (55%),
Pendidikan (49%), Jasa Lingkungan (51%), Jasa Medis (klinik spesialis, rumah sakit, lainnya, dokter hewan,
perawat, jasa sosial), Jasa Transportasi (max 51%)

11

FTA Indonesia

AEC
(2015)

ACFTA (2002/10) AKFTA (2005/6) AJFTA (2008)

Goods

Service

Investment

IPR

AIFTA
(2010/2013/16/18)

Competition
Policy

Dispute
Settlement

Economic
&
Technical
Cooperation

ROO

Custom
Cooperation

AANZFTA (2009) IJEPA (2008)

Source: CSIS, 2013

12

Hasil Olahan
SUSENAS, tw 3, 2012, kor Individu
Sector:B5R30
01. Pertanian tanaman padi &
palawija
02. Hortikultura
03. Perkebunan
04. Perikanan
05. Peternakan
06. Kehutanan & pertanian lainnya
07 Pertambangan & penggalian
08. Industri pengolahan
09. Listrik & gas
10. Konstruksi/bangunan
11. Perdagangan
12. Hotel dan rumah makan
13. Transportasi dan
pergudangan
14. Informasi dan komunikasi
15. Keuangan dan asuransi
16. Jasa pendidikan
17. Jasa kesehatan
18. Jasa kemasyarakatan,
pemerintahan, & perorangan
19. Lainnya

sector

Freq.

Percent Cum.

1
2
3
4
5
6

55,324
2,532
11,028
365
59,970
1,266

42.40
1.94
8.45
0.28
45.96
0.97

Total

42.40
44.34
52.79
53.07
99.03
100.00

130,485 100.00

Recode sector 1=1 2=1 3=1 4=1 5=1 6=1 7=2

8=3 9=4 10=5 11=5 12=5 13=5 14=5 15=5 16=5
17=5 18=5 19=6

Formal : Informal
Agriculture: 12% : 88%
Industry : 60% : 40%
Service
: 52% : 48%

<SMP:>SMP
87% : 13%
36% : 64%
48% : 52%

Share of Employment in ASEAN:

Agriculture (44,5%), Industry (19%), Services (36,5%)

Peran Sektor Jasa Indonesia (2012)

Indonesia (net importer jasa, defisit 10,3 Miliar US$) pada
Transportasi (8,7 Miliar), Royalti dan Asuransi (1,7 Miliar
dan 1 Miliar)

Source: Own Calculation using SUSENAS, 2013

13

Terima Kasih
Thank You
kiki@lpem-feui.org

14