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:

, (RIO TINTO )

. /Ph.D/

. /Ph.D/

2012


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1: ,
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1.1

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1.1.1

.................................... 2

1.1.2

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1.2

.......................................................................................................................... 10
1.2.1

....................................................................... 12

1.2.2

...................................................................... 13

1.2.3

.................................................................. 15

1.2.4

......................................................................................... 16

2:
, ........................................................ 18
2.1

..................................... 18

2.1.1

..................................................... 18

2.1.2

....................................................................... 22

2.1.3


23

2.1.4

.................................................................. 24

2.1.5

................................................................................ 27
ii


, (RIO TINTO )

2.2

...................................................... 29

2.2.1

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2.2.2

..................................................................... 33
......................................................................................................................... 39
............................................................ 40
............................................................................................................................ 41

iii


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2 , , WEO........................... 33
3 , , .................................................... 35

1: , .................................................. 3
2
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3 .................... 4
4 ........ 5
5 , BHP and Barrick Gold Corp- 6
6 , BHP and Barrick Gold Corp- , ... 8
7 ........................................ 9
8 ........................................ 9
9 ................................................................................ 12
10 ........................................................................ 13
11 .................................................. 15
12 ........................................................................ 16
13 , ................................................ 19
14 ........................................................................ 20
15 ............................................... 20
16 .............................. 21
17 .......................................... 22
18 ....................................................................................................... 22
iv


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19 . 23
20 .......................................................................... 24
21 .................................................. 24
22 ........................................ 25
23: ....................................................... 26
24 .................................................. 26
25 ..................................................... 27
26 ............................. 27
27 ...................................................... 27
28
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29 ................................................. 28
30 .................................................. 29
32 .............................................................. 32
33 2020 ....................... 36
34
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35 ................................... 38


, (RIO TINTO )


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1
2
3
4
5
6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

1.61 1.95 2.67 4.08 3.56 4.02 3.94

8.3
9.1
10
10.1 11.3 12.7 14.2

0.21 5.02 4.03 4.98 6.83 7.74 8.91

5.09 4.74 7.3 7.18 6.38 8.15 8.54

2.74 3.67 2.95 4.55 5.28 5.6 5.57

1.09 1.83 2.5 3.58 3.06 2.67 1.94

2008

2009

2010

1.5

-2.05

4.22

9.6
9.8
5.25

9.2
0.86
-7.81

10.3
8.79
4.03

3.58

-1.68

2.84

-0.02

-2.67

2.85

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10 ,
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2.

1
2
3
4
5
6
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

27.9 27.5 27.5 27.8


28
28
27.7 27.02

26.1 25.8 26.36 26.13 26.8


28
29 29.09

21.9
21 21.25 21.62 22.4 21.8

25.2 24.8 25.97 26.23 27.4


28
27.3 27.45 26.2 24.6

29.6 30.4 30.83 32.98 34.3


37
37.1 36.92 35.1 31.7

12.3 12.6 11.68 11.27 11.2 11.2 11.2 12.62 11.3

22.3 21.8 21.56 22.02 22.1 22.2 21.9 21.41

:IMF, World Economic Outlook, 2011


1 , ,

.
3

2001 2002
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

2003

2004

2005 2006 2007

2008

2009

15.5

14.5

14.5

14.7

15.3

15.4

15.6

14.89

13.7

24.7
14.3
7.4
12.4

23.4
13.8
8.5
12.1
13.7

24.22
13.85
8.54
12.84
13.31

24.23
14.05
8.86
13.09
13.23

24.8
13.9
8.68
13.5
16.6

24.5
13.8
9.19
15.1
16.6

24
13.7
9.93
15.6
16.6

24.17
12.76
10.27
15.7
15.82

22.1
11.8

24.8

24.2

24

25.33

26.9

28.4

28.9

27.93

25.5

13.8
13

:IMF, World Economic Outlook


( 1)
10 20 .
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4

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

21
21.1 21.1 21.4 21.3 21.4 21.3 21.6 21.1

1
22
22
21.6 21.5
2 22.4 22.5 22.2 22.3

22.3 21.4 21.6 22.5 23.8 25.2 26.8 27.2


3

17.9
19
17.9 21.7 21.5 21.7 22.1 20.8
4

29.4 29.5 30.4 29.7 29.8 29.3 29.2 28.9 27.9


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16
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15
16.1 15.6 15.6
16
15.7
15
6

22.6 21.8 20.9 20.8 20.6 20.8 20.6 19.9

7
:IMF, World Economic Outlook
2010

. 2010

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2010 2006 2007


.

1.1.2 ,
2002-2010
3 9
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2002 2008 31% 125,036
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.$

2002

2003

6
7
8
9

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

I
1

2004

28671 29369 38954 52033

65078

81247

125036

102682

122576

21249

20569

27753

34347

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32822

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11

0.13

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0.33

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0.47

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0.32

0.35

0.34

0.39

0.45

0.42

0.43

0.38

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14

0.39

0.45

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0.69

0.83

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62
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73
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145
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97
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205
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210

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27
1,789
364
1,431
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1,717
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8.


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4,756

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29,700
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56,576
3,902

2009
41,825
3,380

2008
54,264
3,721

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29,700
4,857

2006
22,465
2,127

14.5
56,576
2,068

12.37
41,825
1,959

14.58
54,264
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29,700
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22,465
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56,576
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9.44
29,700
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2009
0.91
0.43
0.95

2008
1.3
0.61
2.63

2007
0.65
0.29
1.2

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1.1
0.65
23.I

41,825
45,803

54,264
41,753

29,700
45,647

22,465
22,207

1.1
56,576

0.91
41,825

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54,264

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58,333

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54,264
20,638

29,700
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22,465
18,232

0.97

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2.63

1.2

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2.1.2
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17

2010
1.7
1.6
0.77

2009
1.82
0.86
0.45

2008
0.83
0.3
0.07

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1.11
0.44
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1.19
0.71
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2009 2010 .
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23,165
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19,714
10,849

2008
18,435
22,100

2007
21,843
19,667

2006
6,875
5,780

1.82

0.83

1.11

1.19

4,142

1,034

1,541

722

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264

946

567
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3,902
110
217
1,017
15,715
13,602

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168
197
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251
253
962
6,632
22,100

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117
249
900
8,714
19,667

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156
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0.86

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2010

0.25


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2009

2008

2007

2006

0.52

1.93

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4.16

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2009, 2010 . 2010 25%
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2009-2010 . 2010
.

23


, (RIO TINTO )
20









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2010
7
1,057
13,277
14,341
58,333

2009
91
756
22,155
23,002
43,831

2008
147
9,887
29,724
39,758
20,638

2007
104
8,109
38,614
46,827
24,772

2006
14
1,490
2,007
3,511
18,232

0.25
14,324
860

0.52
4,872
463

1.93
3,676
933

1.89
7,312
434

0.19
7,438
429

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929

1,618

538

160

5,296
21,258

2,076
8,340

3,742
9,969

2,090
10,374

2,373
10,400

27.32

8.98

4.16

19.28

65

2.1.4
2.1.4.1

.
.


21

2010
34.81%
25.32%

2009
17.95%
11.65%

2008
2007
2006
18.79% 28.86% 39.95%
6.77% 24.62% 33.11%

24.56%
12.74%

11.12%
5.01%

17.81% 29.52% 40.80%


4.10% 7.21% 21.56%

= /:
2008-2009 2009-2010
2008 .
24


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= /:
2008-2009 2009-2010 .
= / :
2008-2009 2009-2010 2008
.
= / :
2008-2009 2009-2010 .
22

2010
19,694

2009
7,506

2008
10,194

2007
8,571
29,700

2006
8,974

56,576

41,825

54,264

34.81%

17.95%

18.79%

28.86
%

39.95%

14,324

4,872

3,676

7,312

7,438

56,576

41,825

54,264

25.32%

11.65%

6.77%

14,324

4,872

3,676

58,333

43,831

20,638

24.56%

11.12%

17.81%

2010
14,324

2009
4,872

2008
3,676

112,402

97,236

89,616

5.01%
2009
2.14E+0
9

22,465

29,700

22,465


24.62
%
7,312
24,772

33.11%
7,438
18,232

12.74%
2010
1.96E+0
9


14,324


7.29

64.44

29.52
%
2007
7,312
#####
#

2006
7,438

4.10%
2008
######
#

7.21%
2007
#####
#

21.56%
2006
1.53E+0
9

4,872

3,676

7,312

7,438

2.28
47.31

2.4
40.97

4.78
102.96

4.87
74.85

40.80%

34,494

25


, (RIO TINTO )

8.84

20.74

4.17

21.52

15.38

2.1.4.2 Du Pont
23.

ROE

2010
2009
2008
2007
2006

ROA

24.56%
11.12%
17.81%
29.52%
40.80%

12.74%
5.01%
4.10%
7.21%
21.56%

1.93
2.22
4.34
4.09
1.89

2010
( ) .
24

2010
2009
2008
2007
2006

12.74%
5.01%
4.10%
7.21%
21.56%

25.32%
11.65%
6.77%
24.62%
33.11%

0.5
0.43
0.61
0.29
0.65

2010
.

26


, (RIO TINTO )

2.1.5
25

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

11.9
8.55
14.5
12.37
27.36 21.35
8.59
6.63

9.68
14.58
18.87
8.41

5.52
6.11
9.44
4.19

8.84
10.56
17.4
6.65

31

43

38

66

41

25

29

25

60

35

56

72

63

126

76

43

55

43

87

55

26

/
/

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

1.01

0.91

1.3

0.65

1.01

0.5
0.97

0.43
0.95

0.61
2.63

0.29
1.2

0.65
1.23

27

1.

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

1.7

1.82

0.83

1.11

1.19

1.16

0.86

0.3

0.44

0.71

0.77

0.45

0.07

0.13

0.23

2- .
2010 1- .
2010 0,77
. 15

15

27. . -27
27


, (RIO TINTO )
28

2.

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

0.25

0.52

1.93

1.89

0.19

27.32

8.98

6.16

19.28

65

2007, 2008 2009, 2010


. 0,2-
.
2010 . 2007-2009 .
29

3.
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006


0.3481 0.1795 0.1879 0.2886 0.3995


0.2532 0.1165 0.0677 0.2462 0.3311
25%
11%
18%
30%
41%

13%
5%
4%
7%
22%


2010 . 2008-2009
.
2008, 2009 2010
. 1
2008, 2009 2010
.
. . 2007-2009
2010 .

28


, (RIO TINTO )
30
4.



2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

20.74

17.04

21.52

15.38

55.35
1964762591

729%

1002%

2880%

8.84

.
2010 7,29 .
.
. .
1
.
,
.2006-2009 2010
8,84 .

2.2
2.2.1 - , ( - )
51
. 377,397,658
. 2012
2013 . 2006
-
9,9%- . 2011 9
49% .
2012 6

29


, (RIO TINTO )
. 2012 2
51% .16
- . 2018
10-
.
550
80 - .

., ,
2020 - 1/3 . 2012

. 450,000 , 330,000
. 1,4 50
.
24 , -
,
. , ,
.
.

- .
, , .
,
,

.

. 2.3 .
. 14,000
90%
. 2015 85
.17

16
17

http://www.riotinto.com/
. 2009
30


, (RIO TINTO )
:18
- - .
2009 10-
, (- ), (),

,
.
- 34- 34
.
34- 870

250 2009-2011
. 2014
.
.
66 -
51%- .
- 2010 758-

.


,
. 2013
500,000 , 500,000
35- , 50-60-
.19

18


.
19
Rio Tinto, IMF, and World Bank.
31


, (RIO TINTO )
1. , ,

:www.ot.mn
:
: 0,3
6451,5 45,032 , 1,838
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62,21 /, 1,87 /.
: ,
,
.
.
31

,
, , ,
/
.

127
635
93
154

1,204
10,407
313
2,178
5

1,471
11,596
393
2,968
53
++
2,801
22,639
798
5,300
58
: . 2009

32


, (RIO TINTO )

. ,
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2.2.2

,
, World Economic Outlook
5 .
. 2012 5300
/ , 7500 8000 /

.
, .
2 , , WEO
6,000.00
5,000.00
4,000.00
, $/t
3,000.00

, $/Oz

2,000.00
1,000.00
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

: IMF, WEO, 2010



. = .

20

. 2009
33


, (RIO TINTO )
- ()
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2013-2030
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,
- :

34


, (RIO TINTO )
3. , ,

( )
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0


2013-2015 3-
2016 545- , 773 ,
2030 591- .
. - .
= - .

. ,
34- .
:
= ()

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= () +

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- .
= +

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35


, (RIO TINTO )
= (1) +


r = 8% () .

. :

1
2
3
4
5
6

-


7


8


9

- Corporate tax
10

- Royalties
11


12

, .
32. 2020

US$

US$

US$

US$

16%

US$

15%

US$
7%

US$

2013

2014

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

1,241 2,128

2,339 3,603

4,783

4,572

4,683

3,943

734 1,196

1,726 2,651

3,572

3,549

3,501

3,189

983.2 1,143.7

718.5

499.2 916.2
8.6

591.6 919.1 1,169.6


32.1

42.0

40.5

38.3

36.1

243.9 418.3

465.9 717.8

952.8

912.2

930.7

786.9

659.2 619.4

566.6 522.2

497.8

474.7

456.1

432.2

394

268 270.6

359.2

343.9

350.9

296.7

4,395 4,129

3,777 3,481

3,318

3,165

3,041

2,881

268

15.3

2015

22.1

36


, (RIO TINTO )
-

(66%)
-

(51%)
34
-

-

US$

91

155

329

810

1,124

1,075

1,109

921

1,147 1,809

2,311

2,210

2,282

1,905

US$

367 1,062

US$

242

701

757 1,194

1,525

1,459

1,506

1,257

US$

187

542

585

923

1,179

1,127

1,164

972

US$

125

361

390

615

786

751

776

648

US$

215

517

719 1,425

1,910

1,826

1,885

1,569

:
51
835 .
1258
.
.
2010 Rio Tinto 14,324
. ROA 0.16 .
33

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

1,079.00
651.00
1,508.00
3,267.00
5,215.00
7,438.00
7,312.00

16,775.00
17,599.00
21,222.00
22,487.00
23,435.00
28,829.00
87,497.00

ROA

ROA -

0.06
0.04
0.07
0.15
0.22
0.26
0.08
37


, (RIO TINTO )
2008
2009
2010

3,676.00
4,872.00
14,324.00

76,120.00
82,784.00
89,212.00

0.05
0.06
0.16

834.69

0.06

6%

:
1 . ROA
6 .
34.
, , 2011

10,829,690,000,000.00
1,380.00


, , .

7,847,601,449.28

- 2020
,
.
-

1,258,000,000.00
16%

:
835 2020
ROA 6 ,
1258
16 .
1

38


, (RIO TINTO )

,
. ,
.
1. ,

.
2.
2008 . ,
, ,
,
.
3. 2020
835 ROA 6
, 1 .
4. 2020 ,
1258 , 2011 16
. 16 .
5.
,
.

39


, (RIO TINTO )


1.

C. " ", ; , 2010. -266

2.

. " ".; , 2011.-629

3.

." ".; , 2006.-385

4.

. ; 1992.

5.

." ". ; , 2004.-225

6.

" ". ;2010.-186

7.

" " . 2002-2010

8.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/

9.

http://www.riotinto.com/library/

10.

http://www.riotinto.com

40


, (RIO TINTO )

I.



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, )
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(/)>

(
)


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%
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41


, (RIO TINTO )


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=
t = t t 1 %t

i = i

(-1)

42


, (RIO TINTO )
= +

=
t = t 1 + + t 1

II. :


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)

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,
, )
,

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>
(

)

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66% - 51% .

21

43


, (RIO TINTO )
( ) =
, +
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5. = +
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22
)
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10 .

22

44

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