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X : # Heads in n tosses
X is Bin(n, p)
n trials
n
x
px (1 p)nx
P(X = x) =
Binomial table
Problem 4.4
tophat 4.54
Problem 4.5
problem 4.48
problem 4.48
I
problem 4.48
determine p
problem 4.48
problem 4.58
The engineers forecast that 10% of all Denver bridges will have
ratings of 4 or below
I
problem 4.58
Problem 4.58
You have purchased 5 million switches and your supplier has
guaranteed that there will be no more that .1% defectives. You
randomly sample 500 switches and find 4 defectives. Do you
think the supplier has complied with the guarantee?
Assuming the suppliers claim is true,
= np = 500(.001) = .5
Problem 4.58
4.5
.707
= 4.95
Poisson
A Poisson random variable takes values x = 0, 1, 2, . . .. It has
one parameter .
P(X = x) = e
E(X ) =
V (X ) =
x
for x = 0, 1, 2, . . .
x!
Poisson distribution
P(X = x)
= e
x!
0.0
0.0
0.8
40
x
80
0.4
0.8
ppois(x, 50)
0.4
0
0
40
x
80
Poisson distribution
p( x)
x e
x!
3.6
p (4)
e 3.6
.1912
4!
4
.02
:
3.4
3.6
3.8
:
0
.980
:
.033
.027
.022
:
x
3
:
:
.558 .744
.515 .706
.473 .668
:
:
:
.997
.996
.994
:
Cumulative Probabilities
Problem 4.70
Over the last ten years the average number of bank failures per
year was 45. Assume that X , the number of bank failures per
year follows a Poisson distribution
I
45 = 6.71
In 2011, 360 banks failed. How far does this value lie
above the mean?
z=
36045
671
= 47
.
I
p(x) =
nr
N
2 =
r
x
(Nr
nx
N
n
r (N r )n(N n)
N 2 (N 1)
Normal distribution
0.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Density curves
A density curve is a mathematical model of a distribution.
The total area under the curve, by definition, is equal to 1, or 100%.
The area under the curve for a range of values is the probability of all
observations for that range.