Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Tim Merrigan
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
U.S. Department of Energy
Solar Energy Technologies
Presentation Outline
Systems analysis tools used in solar heating R&D
Presentation Acknowledgements
DOE
Tex Wilkins
Lew Pratsch
Industry
Les Nelson, Western Renewables Group
Bob Lorand, SAIC
Bill Scholten, SAIC
NREL
Jay Burch
Craig Christensen
Gary Jorgensen
Mark Mehos
SNL
Rod Mahoney
University
Jane Davidson, Univ. of Minnesota
Bill Beckman, Univ. of Wisconsin
U.S. Department of Energy
Solar Energy Technologies
Must be
minimized
Cost
Performance
[P(t=0)]
Durability
[P(t)]
Lifetime = 10-30 yr
Must be
demonstrated
U.S. Department of Energy
Solar Energy Technologies
TRNSYS
TRNSYS
TRNSYS
TRNSYS
Passive
Active
Box
Storage tanks
Insulation
U.S. Department of Energy
Solar Energy Technologies
$1,000
Profit
Overhead
Labor + rent
Materials
$500
$0
Collector
Installation
Marketing
Foreman
1. Absorber Production
1.1 Tube and Header Fabrication, including connections. pipe fitter
laborer
1.2 Apply selective coating
tester
1.3 Leak Test Assembly
25.00
18.00
9.00
12.00
Cost/
Comments/Source
System
($)
0.4
10.00 Foreman's time pro-rated among sub-assembly operations
1.6
28.80 Header from subcontractor-furnished 8 foot tubes.
0.8
7.20
No direct labor. Subcontracted job. See Coll Matls sheet.
0.6
7.20
2. Enclosure Production
2.1 Cut and Miter Sides, Fasten to form frame
Foreman
metal worker
helper
laborer
laborer
25.00
12.00
9.00
9.00
9.00
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
7.50
4.80
3.60
1.80
1.80
3. Assembly Completion
3.1 Install sealant and glazing
3.2 Install gasket and cap
Foreman
technician
technician
25.00
12.00
12.00
0.1
0.3
0.3
2.50
3.60
3.60
4. Inspection
Foreman
Inspector
25.00
15.00
0.1
0.2
2.50
3.00
5. Warehousing/Shipping
5.1 Place in Shipping Crate
Foreman
laborer
fork lift
operator
25.00
9.00
0.1
0.2
2.50
1.80
15.00
0.3
4.50
average:
14.88
6.50
$96.70
Operation
Labor Class
Totals:
Labor rate
($/hr)
Hours per
system
Cost
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
1000
3000
10000
30000
Volume
100000
$6,000
Cost/install
$5,000
Profit
Overhead
$4,000
Dir. Labor
Material
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
100
300
1000
3000
Volume
10000
% 1st cost
32%
$1,074
38%
$849
30%
First Cost
Collector
Materials
$488.05
$142.78
Overhead
explicit method
Installation
(O+P)/(M+L):
$133.54
$134.89
43%
$246.85
$439.16
explicit method
$227.16
$161.15
(O+P)/(M+L):
57%
Market
Sales (94 systems/person-year)
Advertising
$696.74
$30.79
$121.18
$2,822
Cost/ft2 = $88
$2,822
$536
$3,359
No O&M
$164
9.9
1.5%
-$7.23
17.3
53.8
-$554
-$2,242
% LCC
84%
16%
With O&M
$125
11.8
-1.1%
-$10.46
20.6
64.0
-$1,090
-$2,778
Model Development
and Correlations
Laboratory Controlled,
Accelerated Weathering
Service Lifetime
Prediction
U.S. Department of Energy
Solar Energy Technologies
Durability Testing
Accelerated
Laboratory
Chambers
Outdoor
Ultra-Accelerated,
Natural Sunlight
U.S. Department of Energy
Solar Energy Technologies
Change in Transmittance
0.3
0.25
0.2
Dashed/unfilled = Phoenix, AZ
Solid/filled = Golden, CO
Lines = Predicted
Symbols = Measured
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Market Analysis
Builders:
Trouble-free
Easy to install
Unobtrusive
Cost < $1,500
Architects:
Unobtrusive (skylight-like)
Small, inexpensive
Project Goal:
Cut the delivered, life-cycle energy cost of solar
water heating systems in half by the year 2005.
Australia
FAFCO
Solar
Development
Sun Systems
Labs
University
of
Minnesota
Industry
University
of Akron
Colorado
School
of Mines
University HX and
polymer experts
Preliminary
Commercialization Plan
Interim Report due22 Nov 99
Nov 22, 1999
Meeting
Presentations with Feedback
Mar 15, 2000
Concept Assessment/
Commercialization Plan
New Concepts for Solar Thermal
Systems - Phase II Contractors:
Davis Energy Group/SunEarth
(FSEC)
Time
Weight
33 1/3%
33 1/3%
33 1/3%
N/A
Technical Criteria
Market Criteria
Probability of Success
Programmatic Criteria
(Applied After Evaluations Completed)
Technical Criteria
Cost of Saved Energy
Life Cycle Savings
Weight
67%
33%
Market Criteria
Weight
Market Size/Restrictions
40%
What is the geographic region for this technology?
Code Requirements
40%
What installation skills are required? Does the unit
address building code requirements?
Aesthetics
20%
Organizational Criteria
Weight
40%
40%
10%
10%
0
0
Programmatic Criteria
Funding Considerations
Funds needed by the team
Available funding from the program
Time to Market
Early introduction of the technology to the marketplace
is critical to success of the program.
Geographic Diversity
Technology Diversity
U.S. Department of Energy
Solar Energy Technologies
$1,500
$1,000
$1,000
Profit
Profit
Overhead
Overhead
Labor + rent
Labor + rent
Materials
Materials
$500
$500
$0
$0
Collector
Installation
Marketing
Collector
Installation
Marketing
Glazing(s)
Insulation
Thin-walled polymer
vessel of water
U.S. Department of Energy
Solar Energy Technologies
Supply/Return Piping
Systems Analysis
Applied to
Program Management
Space heating
Packaged solar systems
Space cooling
Desiccant cooling
Absorption air conditioning
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Hot Water
Pool Heating
Commercial
Service hot water in hotel/motels, hospitals, prisons;
institutional swimming pool heating
Industrial
Low temperature processes: food processing, chemicals,...
Water Purification
Desalination; pasteurization
U.S. Department of Energy
Solar Energy Technologies
$/year
$300,000,000
$200,000,000
$100,000,000
$0
Residential Hot Commercial
Water
Hot Water
Low-Temp
Industrial
Processes
Water
Purification
Penetration (fraction)
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
0
10
Cost_system [$]
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
10
$2,000
13
Target
$1,000
16
$0
0
10
15
20
Cost_electricity [c/kWh]
Indirect Circulation
Solar System
Today
$1,400
$900
$800
$1,300
$4,400
Goal
$600
$200
$200
$200
$1,200
2.3
3.7
Goal
Today
Retrofit System: ~$4,400
1500.00
1500.00
O&M
1000.00
Marketing
O&M
1000.00
Marketing
Install
BalOfSys
500.00
BalOfSys
500.00
Collector
Collector
O
&M
tin
g
M
ar
ke
In
st
a
ar
e
H
ar
dw
O
&M
M
ar
ke
ti n
g
io
n
la
t
In
st
al
lla
tio
n
0.00
0.00
Ha
rd
wa
re
Install
Glazings
Box
Storage tanks
Insulation
$899
$881
$800
$673
$600
$400
Today's Active
Today's ICS
Future ICS
$300
$196
$200
$130
$0
Collector
Balance of System
$2822
849
$2,000
$2020
310
1074
847
$1,000
310
899
$0
$1017
863
422
285
Marketing
Installation
ICS unit
Project Goal:
Cut the delivered, life-cycle energy cost of solar
water heating systems in half by the year 2005.
Mid-Term (2008-2010):
Cold-climate solar water heating systems that
deliver energy at $.04-$.05/kWh
Long-Term (2015-2020):
Solar space heating and cooling systems that
deliver energy at $.04-$.05/kWh
U.S. Department of Energy
Solar Energy Technologies