Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Jiyin Wen2
Dong Hua3
School of Electric Power, South China University of
Technology
Guangzhou, China, 510640
E-mail: dhua@scut.edu.cn
I.
INTRODUCTION
and xi = [ x1i , x2i ,..., xdi ]T , which is the i-th input column vector
of training sample, yi is the corresponding output value. The
regression problem is to find a mapping from the input space
to the output space, f : R d R , f (x) = y . For linear
problems, SVM regression function can be expressed as
follows [1]:
y = f (x) = ( w x) + b
(1)
min [ 2 w + C (i + i )]
i =1
y
w
x
b
+ i , i = 1, 2,..., l
i
i
s.t. y + w x + b +
i
i
i
i 0, i 0
(2)
1 l l
*
*
max [ 2 ( i i )( j j )(xi x j )
i =1 j =1
l
l
( i + i* ) + ( i i* ) yi ]
i =1
i =1
( i i ) = 0
i =1
s.t.
0 i C
0 i* C
(3)
f ( x) = ( i i* ) K (xi , x) + b
(4)
i =1
x xi
x3 = T 15 2
( 20 )
(7)
T 15
(5)
Construct the
training samples
Input the model
parameters
Train the SVM
forecasting model
T < 15
Optimal parameters
of SVM model
(6)
Increase the
training
samples
Figure.2 The flow chart of spare parts demand forecasting based on SVM
IV.
(8)
D = LT
(9)
SS = Z D = Z LT
(10)
ROL = D + SS = LT d + Z LT
(11)
TC =
Dy S
Q
1
+ Q H + C Dy
2
(12)
Q=
2 Dy S
(13)
TSL = d (T + LT ) + Z T + LT
(14)
TABLE II.
Cumulative percentage of
inventory cost (%)
0% 83%
83% 98%
98% 100%
Spare parts
SF6 load switch cabinet
High voltage cable
Column circuit breaker
Oil-filled transformer
Outdoor switch box
Low-voltage switchgear
Dry-type transformer
Box-type transformer
Low tension wire
Cable accessories
Low-tension cable
Outdoor low voltage
distribution box
Column load switch
Overhead insulationcovered lines
PT
Steel core aluminum
stranded wire
Cement pole
Cumulative
percentage of
spare parts
inventory (%)
12.35
18.52
27.16
40.74
45.68
53.09
56.79
61.73
71.60
80.25
85.19
Cumulative
percentage of
inventory
cost (%)
38.47
59.75
73.58
82.81
86.03
89.24
92.05
94.75
96.37
97.48
98.16
87.65
98.80
B2
90.12
99.42
B2
Category
A
A
A
A
B1
B1
B1
B1
B1
B1
B2
92.59
99.80
B2
93.83
99.93
B2
96.30
99.97
B2
100
100
B2
C
4.214
4.539
3.764
13.93
12.67
13.62
SS = Z D = Z LT = 3 9.90 1 30
(15)
ROL = LT d + SS = 113.58 + 30 44
(16)
Q=
2 Dy S
2 12 13.58 800
31
280
(17)
SS = Z D = Z T + LT = 3 10.06 2 43 (18)
TSL = d (T + LT ) + SS = 10.21 2 + 43 64
For the column load switch, all of the parameters are the
same to cable accessories (B1) except for the inspection cycle.
According to the periodic review model for Class B2, the
inspection cycle of column load switch is 3 months. We can
get the results from formula [20] to [21].
TABLE IV.
Model
SS = Z D = Z T + LT = 3 0.83 3 + 1 5 (20)
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
SVM
BP
Actual demand 4
12
10
10
(19)
13
10
12
TSL = d (T + LT ) + SS = 0.46 4 + 5 7
VI.
(21)
CONCLUSION
[7]
[8]
[9]
[10]
[11]
REFERENCES
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
[12]
[13]
[14]