Professional Documents
Culture Documents
in modern economy
By,
Ctlin Mihai Nstru
Content:
1. Short description of the instrument
2. Info spot price, historical data
3. Stock analysis
- Fundamental analysis
- Sentimental analysis
- Technical analysis
- Interpreting the results for 3 months
- Calculate the volatility of the stock using modern portfolio theory
4. Option chain
- Pricing the option using BSM
- Use of a simple strategy
5. Results
- How investing in options is more profitable than buy and hold stock strategy
6. Complex Strategy
- Strategy for bull market
- Strategy for bear market
7. Conclusion
Tesla's strategy has been to emulate typical technological-product life cycles and initially enter
the automotive market with an expensive, high-end product targeted at affluent buyers. As the
company, its products, and consumer acceptance matured, it is moving into larger, more competitive
markets at lower price points.2
2. Stocks information
1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=TSLA+Profile
2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Motors
3
a. Financial ratios
Current
SHARE VALUES
Earnings Per Share - TTM
Dividends Per Share - TTM
Book Value Per Share
Free Cash Flow Per Share
Sales Per Share
YoY
2010
2011
2012
2013
($2.53)
$0.00
$2.14
($3.86)
$2.03
($3.69)
$0.00
$1.09
($5.11)
$3.85
($0.62)
$0.00
$5.42
($1.10)
$16.86
($1.12)
$0.00
$5.42
($1.10)
$16.86
495.52%
79.85%
364.67%
77.17%
($3.04)
$0.00
$2.18
($3.09)
$2.30
-18.695
-2.9796
22.66
-3.0436
1115.44%
1354.54%
67.89%
3034.73%
-63.566
-39.762
26.323
-125.78
-118.03
-46.271
30.158
-123.13
-227.22
-43.34
7.2756
-95.409
-18.695
-2.9796
22.66
-3.0436
6.0035
-3.6759
71.97%
2508.23%
1.3663
-132.19
1.8358
-124.56
1.683
-95.876
6.0035
-3.6759
ACTIVITY RATIOS
Total Asset Turnover
Inventory Turnover
0.83308
4.7668
55.48%
53.33%
0.30238
2.2043
0.28627
2.6396
0.3709
2.2246
0.83308
4.7668
FINANCIAL RATIOS
Long-term Debt to Capital
Financial Leverage (Assets/Equity)
Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio
Dividend Payout (% of Earnings)
Quick Ratio
Current Ratio
47.309
3.6229
-1.0565
0
1.3301
1.875
-62.22%
-146.62%
4670.29%
25.888
1.8647
-154.4
0
2.1021
2.7568
54.758
3.1844
-49.364
0
1.6376
1.9486
76.742
8.935
-50.398
0
0.4597
0.9734
47.309
3.6229
-1.0565
0
1.3301
1.875
PROFITABILITY
Return on Equity (ROE)
Return on Assets (ROA)
Gross Profit Margin
Operating Profit Margin
Tax Rate
Interest Rate - Estimated Average
Net Profit Margin
65.44%
48.09%
Based on financials we can observe a YoY increased sharply for every ratio, which can be
translated into the company fast growing and a bet for bullish stocks. Yet we cant only buy stocks
based only on the financial ratio, we need more information about the company.
3 http://www.nasdaq.com/
4
b. Press released
On October 4, 2014, Tesla announced the 60D,
85D, and P85D dual-motor all-wheel drive variants of
the Model S. The high-end P85D can accelerate from 0
to 60 mph in 3.2 seconds and has a top speed of 155
miles per hour (249 km/h).4
On November 26, 2014 Tesla Motors announced
the completion of upgrades to its Fremont, California factory.
The Tesla Model X was unveiled at the
company's
design
studios
in Hawthorne,
California February 9, 2012. However, Tesla
announced in February 2014 that in order to focus on
overseas roll outs of the Model S during 2014, the
company expects to have production design Model X
prototypes by the end of 2014, to begin high-volume
deliveries for retail customers in the second quarter of
2015. In November 2014 Tesla delayed one more time
the start of deliveries to retail customers, and
announced the company expects Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of 2015.
On 4th September Teslas founder, Elon Musk,
announce a project for $5 billion in wich is planning for
building a facility as a key step toward making electric
cars more affordable, while ending reliance on oil and
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The facility will
produce high-voltage battery and will be entirely
powered by renewable energy.5
Tesla said it lost $62 million in the second
quarter, when they delivered 7,579 vehicles. The
company says it's on track to deliver 35,000 cars by the
end of 2014. A Tesla Model S retails for $71,070, according to the Tesla website.6
On 18th February we expect annual financial report of the company, so we should take this in
consideration when trading company.
4 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Motors
5 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-05/musk-battery-works-fill-utilities-with-fearand-promise.html
6 http://www.businessinsider.com/r-tesla-factory-near-reno-is-bet-old-nevada-will-meetthe-new--2014-10
5
So, in order to asses better a company valuation we need to understand their products, services,
and future projects. Based on some announces made by the company and the founder Elon Musk we
can see that is planning to expand. Also we can see that the cars companys manufactures are in great
demand by customers, and orders are rising. This can be a sign of company power and financial
strength.
3.2.
Date
Research Firm
Action
From
To
17-Oct-14
MLV & Co
Initiated
Buy
08-Oct-14
Tigress Financial
Initiated
Neutral
02-Sep-14
Stifel
Upgrade
Hold
Buy
11-Aug-14
Deutsche Bank
Upgrade
Hold
Buy
26-Mar-14
UBS
Initiated
20-Feb-14
Deutsche Bank
19-Feb-14
FBR Capital
Initiated
07-Nov-13
Standpoint Research
Upgrade
Sell
Hold
02-Oct-13
Robert W. Baird
Downgrade
Outperform
Neutral
22-Aug-13
Stifel
08-Aug-13
Barclays
Downgrade
Overweight
Equal Weight
Deutsche Bank
Upgrade
Hold
Buy
Northland Capital
Initiated
26-Jul-13
01-Mar-13
Downgrade
Neutral
Buy
Hold
Mkt Perform
Initiated
Hold
Outperform
Last Month
Strong Buy
Buy
10
11
Hold
Underperform
Sell
From the analyst point of view we can see that the recommendation is to buy and hold.
Actually the company shares are forming an uptrend as we can see in the figure 1.
Overall if we look on the fundamental analysis of the company we can see a strong bullish
trend. But relying only on fundamentals and sentimental analysis is like we stay on a stool with only
two legs. We risk falling and hurting ourselves. So we need to see what is happening at technical level.
3.3.
Technical analysis
Technical analysis is the framework in which traders study price movement.The theory is that a
person can look at historical price movements and determine the current trading conditions and
potential price movement.
Fibonacci
Traders use the Fibonacci retracement levels as potential support and resistance areas. Since
so many traders watch these same levels and place buy and sell orders on them to enter trades or place
stops, the support and resistance levels tend to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Traders use the Fibonacci extension levels as profit taking levels. Again, since so many traders
are watching these levels to place buy and sell orders to take profits, this tool tends to work more often
than not due to self-fulfilling expectations.
I use a Fibonacci retracement in 1 year chart window, with a low of 136.67 and a high of
291.42, and for Fibonacci extension level I also use 17.12.15 lower level of 192.65. Annex 2
0.236 - 252.88
0.382 - 230.44
0.382 - 252.88
0.500 - 212.31
0.618 - 290.14
0.618 - 194.18
1.000 - 348.01
- 192.2
0.764 - 168.36
3.4.
By using the Fibonacci retracement and extension levels I can analyze the past 3 months:
04.09.2014 we can see that in the beginning of the September the price has reached the
maximum value 291.42, which is the 0.0 level of my retracement level.
15.09.2014 we can see an downtrend after the maximum value until this date where 0.236
level acts like support and the price bounce back from 249.13, only is just for a short period, because
on 22.09.2014 price pierce the 0.236 support level bringing the price lower as 235.65 on 01.10.2014.
On this moment we can see a downtrend forming; we expect the price to fall even more.
04.10.2014 but on this date, Tesla announce new motors for the car Model S witch upgrade the
performance of the car, and new orders for this car are availed and also the price meet the 0.382
support level, making the price of the actions rise again to maximum 265.54 on 09.10.2014. Now we
can say its time to buy.
10.10.2014 if we had bought a day earlier just assuming the price will rise due to the press
released, we would have suffered hard, because in this date the market fall 187 points, and influence
our stock, even if beta is lower than other public companies. Fortunately the 0.500 fib level holds,
pushing the price back up from 217.32 on 17.10.2014.
17.10.2014 18.11.2014 in this time the market uptrend resumes moving our actions back
again to 259.99 and we can see the 0.236 fib level acting like resistance pushing the price back again.
7
19.11.2014 Morgan Stanley lowered Tesla 2014 and 2015 earnings expectations, while leaving
the target price unchanged at $320. Teslas 2015 earnings estimate have been reduced to $2.45 from
the previous estimate of $4.39. Shares began a downward trend, being helped by the market which lost
100 points during 05.12.2014 15.12.2014, pushing our shares toward a lower of 192.62 on
17.12.2017, level that coincides with our 0.618 fib level.
18.12.2014 in this moment the market growth resumes, and we can see that our stock price
starts to rise, breaking the 0.500 resistance fib level, but stopping their growth at 0.382 fib level to a
maximum of 228.5 on 26.12.2014. Also this growth can be attributed to 10.12.2014 announcement in
which is said that Tesla car registration in USA increased with 153% .
01.01.2014 present we can see the 0.382 resistance fib level holds, and the price of stocks
bounce back to the previous level, currently standing at the 0.500 fib level with a stock price of
206.75.
For the first part of this year we can see the price fluctuates between 205-225 per share. We can
expect the price to decrease, especially because will follow the financial report release on 18.02.2015,
but we need to consider the other factors.
3.5.
Calculate the volatility of the stock
Volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk about the size of changes in a security's
value. A higher volatility means that a security's value can potentially be spread out over a larger range
of values. This means that the price of the security can change dramatically over a short time period in
either direction. A lower volatility means that a security's value does not fluctuate dramatically, but
changes in value at a steady pace over a period of time.7
a. Calculate historical volatility using standard deviation:
The standard deviation essentially reports stocks volatility, which indicates the tendency of the
returns to rise or fall drastically in a short period of time. A security that is volatile is also considered
higher risk because its performance may change quickly in either direction at any moment.8
I calculate standard deviation from historical price of the TSLA stocks with a timeframe of 2
and 1 and 0.5 years and the results are as follows based on Annex 1 excel calculation:
HV (2 years) = 0.579644
HV (1year) = 0.478902
HV (0.5 year) = 0.414575
Source: Annex 1: Excel sheet with calculation
7 http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volatility.asp
8 http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mutualfund/03/072303.asp
9 http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mutualfund/03/072303.asp
8
e. Sharpe Ratio
The Sharpe ratio tells us whether a stock or portfolio's
returns are due to smart investment decisions or a result of
excess risk. The greater a portfolio's Sharpe ratio, the better its
risk-adjusted performance has been.10
If the risk-free rate is 2%, the standard deviation of the
stock is 0.478902 and the expected market return over the
period is 10%, the stock is expected to return 16.70% (10%2%) / 0.478902.
Interpreting the results
Based on the calculation, we can say that investing in Tesla stock is much riskier than investing
in the S&P 500, but also is more rewarding. From the beta calculation we can see that movement in
the S&P500 influence by 1.81 movements in TSLA stock, but also TSLA stock is more rewarding,
beating the index return by 1.9023%. Using CAMP and Sharpe Ratio we can determine that an
investment return must be above 16.65% for the risk worth taking.
4. Option chain
Because of the small amount of return and big capital requirements for investing in stocks and
for hedging our risk we should look into the option chain for a smart investment strategy.
I take the option chain for 27 days time frame with a strike price between 185-230, prices that
coincides with 0,618 fib support level and 0.382 fib resistance level. I want to examine what would be
the price of the options using Black-Scholes pricing model.
10 http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharperatio.asp
9
Impl
Vol
Prob.OT
M
Delt
a
BID
43.54
%
42.73
%
41.84
%
44.56
%
43.64
%
42.84
%
42.11%
19.50%
0.84
22.22%
0.81
25.17%
0.78
22.9
5
20.8
5
18.8
30.32%
0.74
18
33.66%
0.71
16.1
37.28%
0.67
14.4
41.13%
0.63
41.07
%
40.38
%
40.11%
39.37
%
38.58
%
38.78
%
38.15
%
38.37
%
38.57
%
38.15
%
37.45
%
37.62
%
45.08%
0.59
12.7
5
11.15
49.28%
0.55
9.7
53.60%
57.92%
0.51
0.46
8.5
7.1
62.27%
0.42
66.29%
0.38
5.2
70.37%
0.33
4.25
73.89%
0.3
3.7
77.13%
0.26
3.1
80.40%
0.23
2.49
83.56%
0.19
1.95
85.94%
0.17
1.64
ASK
25
Exp
(days
)
27
Strik
e
185
BID
2.5
ASK
Impl
Vol
Prob.OT
M
Delta
3.2
47.45
78.19%
-0.18
%
22.9 27
187.5
2.9
3.45 45.86
75.94%
-0.2
%
20.8 27
190
3.3
3.9 44.61
73.25%
-0.23
5
%
19 27
192.5
3.85
4.45 43.73
70.10%
-0.26
%
17.1 27
195
4.45
5.25 43.25
66.52%
-0.29
5
%
15.3 27
197.5
5.2
5.95 42.47
62.87%
-0.33
%
13.6 27
200
6
6.9 41.99
58.91%
-0.37
%
11.9 27
202.5
7
7.8 41.40
54.84%
-0.41
%
10.4 27
205
8
8.4 39.72
50.80%
-0.45
%
9.05 27
207.5
9.3
9.85 40.11% 46.40%
-0.49
7.9 27
210
10.4
11.4 39.81
42.12%
-0.54
%
6.65 27
212.5 11.75
12.5 38.70
37.76%
-0.58
5 %
5.75 27
215
13.2
14.2 38.56
33.64%
-0.62
5 %
4.85 27
217.5
14.9
16.8 40.67
30.55%
-0.65
5 %
4.1 27
220
16.6
17.4 37.64
25.77%
-0.71
5
5 %
3.55 27
222.5
18.3
19.9 38.75
22.96%
-0.74
5
5 %
2.95 27
225
20.3
22.4 40.25
20.70%
-0.76
5
%
2.36 27
227.5
22.4
24.4 40.48
18.10%
-0.79
5 %
1.96 27
230
24.6
26.6 41.15
16.00%
-0.81
%
Table2. Source: TD Ameritrade paperMoney - Thinkorswim trading software
4.1.
Pricing the options using BSM
The Black-Scholes model is used to calculate the theoretical price of European put and call
options, ignoring any dividends paid during the option's lifetime.
10
For pricing the options I will use Excel calculator, with a volatility (standard deviation)
calculated earlier, of 0.478902, time to expiration 27 days, current stock price of 206.66, and a riskfree rate of 2%. The results will be:
Volatility
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
47.89%
Delta
0.8229
0.7949
0.7648
0.7328
0.6993
0.6644
0.6285
0.592
0.555
0.5181
0.4814
0.4453
0.4101
0.376
0.3432
0.3119
0.2822
0.2543
0.2281
Call
value
$ 24.67
$ 22.75
$ 20.90
$ 19.14
$ 17.46
$ 15.88
$ 14.39
$ 12.99
$ 11.69
$ 10.48
$ 9.36
$ 8.33
$ 7.39
$ 6.53
$ 5.75
$ 5.05
$ 4.42
$ 3.85
$ 3.35
Difference
from market
1.33%
0.66%
-0.24%
-0.73%
-1.79%
-3.72%
-5.65%
-8.76%
-11.69%
-14.67%
-16.96%
-22.52%
-25.09%
-29.74%
-33.82%
-35.24%
-40.43%
-48.94%
-53.60%
Strike
185
187.5
190
192.5
195
197.5
200
202.5
205
207.5
210
212.5
215
217.5
220
222.5
225
227.5
230
Put value
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Difference
Delta
from market
2.74
15.52%
-0.1771
3.31
4.14%
-0.2051
3.96
-1.53%
-0.2352
4.69
-5.25%
-0.2672
5.52
-5.01%
-0.3007
6.43
-7.76%
-0.3356
7.43
-7.40%
-0.3715
8.53
-8.95%
-0.208
9.73
-14.70%
-0.445
11.01
-11.13%
-0.4819
12.39
-8.33%
-0.5186
13.86
-9.93%
-0.5547
15.41
-7.83%
-0.5899
17.05
-1.18%
-0.624
18.77
-7.29%
-0.6568
20.56
-3.01%
-0.6881
22.43
-0.13%
-0.7178
24.35
0.41%
-0.7457
26.35
0.94%
-0.7719
Table2. Source: Own calculations in Excel
If we are to invest using Black-Scholes model, we would buy underestimated options and sell
over evaluated options compared with the market, and assume the price will go in our direction.
According to this model the volatility (stand.dev.) must remain constant for the model to work, and the
model does not include some technical factors as liquidity, supply and demand, that can influence the
price.
From the table we can see that the market underestimate call options with strike prices above
210, and put options with strike price between 205- 212.5 and if weve buy them it seems the price
will turn in our favors. Another interpretation is that the market is expecting the price of underlying
asset to decrease and thats why the high strike price of call options is under evaluated. But only to buy
and hold a call/put option hoping to go in the right direction, based only on BSM is not a good
strategy.
5. Results
Accordingly to CAMP model and Sharp Ratio, our buy shares of TSLA Company, are
returning approximately 16% annually, which is much better than bonds and bills, but considering the
risk is fair enough.
11
Weve seen that TSLA stock have a high volatility and in this case are better to hedge our self
with options. One way to do this is o buy a put option just in case the price will decrease. Based on my
technical analysis, it seems that the price of the stock will decrease, so it is always a good choice to
insure our risk. And since weve bayed the stock is always a good idea to make some additional money
selling OTM options. And one way to do this is selling covered calls and making a profit from the
premium received. In this case we hope the stock price will stay flat or go down and the option would
expire worthless.
Formula:
-
Sell one 215 call option with expire day of 2015-02-07 (27 days) for 5.2
Buy one 190 put option with expire day of 2015-02-07 (27 days) for 3.9
Max reward = 215 206.66 + 5.2 3.9 = 9.64 * 100 shares = 964 $ when the price of the
underlying asset is 215
Max risk = 206.66 215 + 5.2 3.9 = 7.04 * 100 shares = 704 $ when the price of the
underlying asset is 190$
In this case we pay 20.666$ for long 100 stock and receive 130$ in premium for this collar
strategy. In this scenario we have 3 posibilities:
1. TSLA shares will stay below 215 call strike price and the option will expire worthless and
we keep the premium, and outperform the stock
2. TSLA shares fall call option will expire worthless and we keep the premium and
outperform the stock, and we are protected against a decline below 190
3. TSLA shares rise above 215 the option is exercised and my upside is capped at 215 +
option premium. In this case, if the stock price goes higher than 215 plus the premium, our
collar strategy will underperform the TSLA stock.
6. Complex strategy
For this type of market my complex strategy will use a vertical spread, which involves 2
contracts, one buying option and one selling option of the same type and expiration, but a different
strike. Also for this kind of transaction I dont need to buy the stock, decreasing the amount of capital
needed.
a. For a bull market
For call options: strategy name bull call debit spread
-
Max reward = (207.5 200) * 100 shares = 750 401 = 349$ for a price above 207.5
Max reward = 9.3 5.25 = 4.05 * 100 shares = 405 $ if the price is above 207.5
Max risk = (207.5 195) *100 405$ = 845 if the price fall under 195
Max reward = 9.70 5.75 = 3.95 * 100 shares = 395$ if the price is under 205
Max risk = (215 205) * 100 395 = 605 $ if the price rise above 215
Max reward = 212.5 205 = 7.5 * 100 shares = 750$ - 455 = 295$ if the price is under 205
7. Conclusion:
In conclusion, I can say that there are hundreds of option strategies that can limit our risk, but
in order to take advantage of the full power of options trading, we need to have a big trading account.
One the best thing in these strategies is that we can calculate before transaction our risk/reward ratio,
and invest accordingly to our adversity towards risk. Another thing o take into account when we
decide to invest in options is our timeframe (time decay), and we can make profit only by speculating
on a short term the direction of the underlying making a good amount of return.
Usually traders use a margin account, which have a limited buy power, and bigger B/P effect
than a IRA account. But an IRA account cost from 25.000$ and beyond. For a margin account we can
still use a lot of different trading strategies, we can open positions when we want and how many we
want and the account permitted. One thing when we open an account is to take into account the broker
fees and commissions for transactions. I didnt include them into my strategies, and these costs are
affecting our profits.
Also for just investing in a portfolio of stock, we can use modern portfolio theory for assessing
our risk/reward ratio and use a strategy like diversify our portfolio. Best when we choose to invest in
13
stock is to have a view in a long/medium time period. As we can saw in this analyze, TSLA stock will
offer us a much better return in long term than bonds, and bank deposit do.
Bibliography:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
http://finance.yahoo.com/
http://www.investopedia.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Motors
http://www.theoptionsguide.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZyfXsL-maM
http://www.babypips.com/school/
TD Ameritrade paperMoney - Thinkorswim trading software
14