SPE 158207

Eagle Ford Shale - An Early Look at Ultimate Recovery

Gary S. Swindell, SPE

Copyright 2012, Society of Petroleum Engineers

This paper was prepared for presentation at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition held in San Antonio, Texas, USA, 8-10 October 2012.
This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper have not been
reviewed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and are subject to correction by the author(s). The material does not necessarily reflect any position of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, its
officers, or members. Electronic reproduction, distribution, or storage of any part of this paper without the written consent of the Society of Petroleum Engineers is prohibited. Permission to
reproduce in print is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words; illustrations may not be copied. The abstract must contain conspicuous acknowledgment of SPE copyright.

Abstract
Although the Eagle Ford shale is early in its history, the study provides a comprehensive examination of per well recovery
and decline data in the South Texas trend using the latest production information up to early 2012.
Individual forecasts of the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) were made for more than 1,000 horizontal wells in the South
Texas Eagle Ford shale trend and statistics were developed for EUR in the 10 primary counties where development is
occurring. The study used rate vs. time plots and included all the producing wells in the trend which have decline data
believed to be sufficient to project EUR. Normalized decline curves were developed for each county and distributions of
EUR were produced. In addition, for a portion of the wells, correlations were made between EUR, frac size, horizontal
length and the date of first production.
The results show that for the 10 county trend, the average and median EUR per well were 206,779 barrels of oil equivalent
(BOE) and 160,519 BOE, respectively. Of the counties with more than 50 wells, the best are DeWitt (403,715 BOE) and
Karnes (210,801 BOE). Live Oak, with only 28 wells averages 248,818 BOE. The normalized rate vs. time plots show
minor hyperbolic behavior. In fact, for all the wells in the study, the normalized oil decline was 76% and the gas 60%, with
hyperbolic exponents of .25 and .40, respectively. The wells have clearly become better since the start of horizontal drilling,
but the average performance has not shown much improvement since mid-2010 even as the frac sizes became larger. The
best well performance has generally come from wells with horizontal legs in the 4,000 to 5,500 ft. range.
The South Texas Eagle Ford shale trend is one of the most active in the US, adding approximately 100 new producing leases
each month. Although a great deal is being written about the trend, there is a lack of independent, hard data on per well
reserves. This study provides an early look at individual well ultimate recovery.

Introduction
The industry literature is full of articles about the Eagle Ford shale in South Texas, and for good reason as it is among the
most active plays in the US. Some of these mention estimates of per well ultimate recovery, often in barrels-of-oil-equivalent
(rarely stating what was used to convert gas to oil equivalent), but nearly all the quoted figures, which range up to 850,000
BOE or 8.5 billion cubic feet, are from companies active in the trend. That certainly does not disqualify the figures given,
and in fact, these companies possess data not publically available. Rarely, however, is the supporting data made available,
and the EUR figures are usually limited to the specific areas the companies are working.
For an excellent discussion of the Eagle Ford geology, petrophysics, drilling trends and some early decline curve work, see
SPE 145117, Understanding Production from Eagle Ford-Austin Chalk System (Martin et al. 2011) information that will
not be repeated here but it is recommended reading. The remainder of the available SPE papers either address the matter
from a modeling or theoretical standpoint, apply auto-fitting of the decline curves, or use very limited well counts.

SPE 158207

The Scope of the Study

The Eagle Ford horizontal trend grew from nothing in early 2008 to nearly 1,200 producing leases by the end of February
2012 (the latest data used in this study), and new producing leases are being added at a rate of nearly 100 each month. Ten
counties lie in the heart of the trend, Atascosa, DeWitt, Dimmit, Gonzales, Karnes, La Salle, Live Oak, Maverick, McMullen,
and Webb. Although a number of the wells have not been producing long enough to establish a decline trend, 1,041 wells on
843 leases have a decline rate sufficiently established to make an estimate of ultimate recovery using conventional decline
curve methods, manually fitting a decline projection to the individual leases or wells. All of the EUR figures given in this
paper are per well. Figure 1 is a map showing the wells included in the study. A conversion to barrels-of-oil-equivalent
(BOE) was made, including an estimate of the natural gas liquids (NGL) that may be extracted from the gas stream.
These individual well ultimate recovery projections and especially the controversial hyperbolic nature of the declines were
further guided by normalized profiles of large groups of wells some of these are presented for the larger well-count
counties.
In addition, for a portion of the 1,000 wells analyzed for EUR, information was obtained for oil and gas gravity, frac sand
volume, frac stages, horizontal perforated length, peak monthly gas and oil production, and initial potential. This information
did not cover all the wells but should be fairly representative with data points ranging from 165 wells (frac stages) to 438
wells (peak monthly gas production). Some correlations of this data to EUR are presented.

Fig. 1 Map showing wells included in the study.

Problems with the Production data

Yes, there are some problems. First, nearly 80 of the leases have multiple wells with the production combined; the rest are
single well leases. Addressing this, the lease EUR is simply divided by the well count. Most multiple well leases were
excluded from the normalizing work. Second, in Texas wells not yet assigned a RRC number are considered preliminary or
P wells, so any duplicates had to be excluded, corrected or merged with later production data. Third, some leases have
been reclassified from gas to oil generating a new RRC record, or in a few cases are later merged with other RRC records.
These were carefully combined, producing a single complete decline curve. Finally, some leases have production that starts
slow and increases or is initially erratic as early production problems are solved. Since inclusion of these leases would distort
the results, all these were excluded from the normalizing work.
The studys whole database of Eagle Ford production included nearly 1,200 leases, but only 843 leases (1,041 wells) were
considered established enough to make a EUR projection. The rest were considered too early to make a reasonable decline
forecast.

SPE 158207

Economic Limit
The following parameters were used to establish the economic limit of the decline forecasts:
Interests
Oil price
Gas price
Operating costs
Taxes

100% working, 75% net revenue (25% burdens)

$100/barrel held constant
$4.00/MCF held constant
$3,000 per month per well
4.6% oil and 7.5% gas Texas severance, 2.5% ad valorem

Gas-to-oil conversion
Most papers, articles, and company reports fail to explain or define how natural gas is converted to barrels-of-oil-equivalent.
The traditional 6 MCF/BBL conversion on the basis of BTU might have been used, but the divergence in oil and gas prices
no longer make this a meaningful approach. For this work, a rough price ratio of 20 MCF per barrel was used to convert
natural gas into equivalent barrels. Yes, as this is being written the price ratio is more like 40:1 but the assumption is that this
recent jump will not be a long term trend.
What about the NGL?
It is a difficult problem because there is almost no public data available. Even if you had NGL plant output information, it
would be a blend of many wells from a wide geographical area and individual well gas analyses would be necessary, data that
resides with the operators. Using a few public reports of NGL yield, an estimate of NGL barrels per MMCF was developed
for each county and used in the conversion of gas-EUR to barrels-of-oil-equivalent (BOE). That estimate included an
adjustment for gas shrinkage and the price received for NGL. The county figures that were used vary from 40 to 130 barrels
of NGL per million cubic feet of natural gas. This conversion and BOE adjustment would admittedly not stand much
scrutiny because of the lack of hard data. (On the other hand, in a career spent on evaluating oil & gas properties I have
found only a handful of cases where an interest owner made money through an NGL plant. By the time deductions are made
for shrinkage, line losses, compression, fuel and the plant fractions, there is usually little income benefit to the working
interest owner. It might be different if you owned the plant, and certainly in the current $2.00/MCF price environment it
makes some sense to sell your product as NGL.)
EUR Overview and Summary Table
For the 1,041 well study group covering the heart of the trend, the mean EUR per well is 206,800 BOE and the median is
160,500 BOE. The overall distribution is log-normal (De Witt is not see Fig. 7) with a best well of 1,002,000 BOE. Six
percent of the wells are forecast to recover in excess of 500,000 BOE. Unless you are drilling the whole trend, the overall
averages do not mean much and the county details given later in the paper are more useful. Table 1 summarizes the results
by county.
TABLE 1 - SUMMARY OF ULTIMATE RECOVERY STUDY BY COUNTY

County

Number of
wells in
study

Avg. Frac
sand - Th.
Pounds

Avg. oil
gravity

Avg. peak oil

production BBL/month

Avg. peak gas

production MCF/month

Avg. EUR
Avg. EUR
oil - BBL per gas - MMCF
well
per well

Avg. EUR BOE per

well

ATASCOSA

23

3,509

36.3

8,390

9,689

80,117

67

86,864

DEWITT

89

4,576

55.5

21,551

123,873

261,326

1,338

403,715

DIMMIT

182

3,450

49.3

7,430

37,772

114,644

638

180,870

83

3,280

41.3

13,457

10,635

121,795

135

135,102

KARNES

194

4,156

48.3

14,329

66,037

156,782

508

210,801

LA SALLE

173

4,649

50.9

5,195

128,891

64,157

1,331

194,991

LIVE OAK

28

3,538

51.7

17,184

107,657

136,136

963

248,818

MAVERICK

21

2,839

42.7

2,567

9,192

17,380

159

31,356

MCMULLEN

65

3,194

50.1

9,363

86,218

90,503

832

172,237

178

3,646

59.3

5,721

119,458

70,104

1,925

192,697

115,282

1,044

206,779

GONZALES

WEBB
Total

1,041

Normalized decline curves

Leaving out the wells with early erratic production, the decline curves of the wells in each of the 10 counties in the study
were normalized, bringing all the starting dates back to the same time-zero and dividing the production totals by the well
count. This approach gives a plot of how the average well in those counties declines. The end portion of the decline curves
were trimmed off when the well count approached 10 wells. Normalizing is not without its problems, including partial first-

SPE 158207

month of production, wells that are later worked over (see Karnes County Fig. 16), and survivor bias the best, most long
lived wells influence the later points of the curve. But it does, however, give a decline profile across a large sample of wells
which is free of any interpretation, and I believe that the normalized profile should serve as a guide to individual decline
curve decisions. Table 2 below summarizes the normalized decline profiles. Note that the decline rates and hyperbolic
exponents are from manual curve fitting of about 2 years of normalized production data. The flow regimes are probably
changing and may change further in the life of the wells.

County

TABLE 2 - SUMMARY OF NORMALIZED DECLINE BY COUNTY GROUPS

Number of
Initial Oil
Early Oil
Initial Gas
wells
Qi Oil decline
Hyperbolic
Qi Gas decline
normalized BBL/month
rate
exponent - b MCF/month
rate

Early Gas
Hyperbolic
exponent - b

ATASCOSA

21

6,408

89%

0.35

3,750

77%

0.30

DEWITT

86

20,079

72%

0.20

95,885

66%

0.10

DIMMIT

128

5,356

49%

26,468

54%

49

13,769

71%

0.25

13,268

78%

0.40

KARNES

121

12,714

88%

0.85

35,224

80%

0.50

LA SALLE

131

4,115

79%

91,678

69%

0.70

LIVE OAK

127

12,967

84%

0.25

46,235

85%

0.70

MAVERICK

17

1,782

92%

0.35

8,257

82%

MCMULLEN

52

7,887

79%

76,955

76%

0.30

167

3,655

63%

92,269

51%

0.10

GONZALES

WEBB

0.30

Everyone Talks About Initial Potential

Initial potential (IP) is a widely quoted figure that certainly gives an indication of instantaneous well productivity. Testing
procedures vary between companies and the IP may not be a reliable indicator of EUR, however. In a sample of more than
200 gas wells, the first months gas production was 76% of the state recorded IP. For a group of 150 oil wells, the actual first
months production was 88% of the IP test rate. Peak actual monthly oil production (Fig. 2) had a fairly good correlation
with EUR in a group of 400 wells but the relationship of EUR to peak gas production (Fig. 3) was not as defined.
EUR vs. Peak Month Oil
(Is peak production correlated to EUR?)
700,000

Atascosa
De Witt
Dimmit
Gonzales
Karnes
LaSalle
Live Oak
McMullen
Maverick
Webb

500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

Peak Oil - BBL/month

Fig 2. EUR vs. peak actual oil production, all counties.

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000

SPE 158207

EUR vs. Peak Month Gas

(Is peak production correlated to EUR?)
700,000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000
Atascosa
De Witt
Dimmit
Gonzales
Karnes
LaSalle
Live Oak
McMullen
Maverick
Webb

500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

300,000

270,000

240,000

210,000

180,000

150,000

120,000

90,000

60,000

30,000

Peak Gas - MCF/month

Fig. 3 EUR vs. peak actual gas production, all counties.

Correlation of EUR to Time, Frac Size, Horizontal Length

Are The Wells Getting Better?

Figure 4 below is a plot of the EUR for all the wells in the study vs. the month of first production, color coded by county.
There may be too much information here and the individual county plots are better at showing trends, but it clear that the per
well EUR increased from the early days but after early 2010 it is difficult to see an overall pattern.
EUR-BOE vs. Time
(Are the wells getting better?)
700,000

500,000

Atascosa
De Witt
Dimmit
Gonzales
Karnes
LaSalle
Live Oak
McMullen
Maverick
Webb

400,000
300,000
200,000

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

100,000

Jan-08

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000

First Production

Fig. 4 EUR vs. month of first production, all counties.

SPE 158207

Do Larger Fracs Give Higher EUR?

Figure 5 is a plot of the frac sand vs. the forecast of EUR for 319 wells in which the frac sand data was tabulated. The data
is scattered but a clear trend can be seen for better results with larger frac jobs, up to 4,000,000 lb., then the trend seems to
disappear, at least in some of the counties, and may even show decreasing EUR results with larger jobs. Note that the Karnes
County data set does indicate continued improvement in EUR with larger jobs.
EUR vs. Frac Size
(Are bigger fracs yielding more?)
700,000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000
Atascosa
De Witt
Dimmit
Gonzales
Karnes
LaSalle
Live Oak
McMullen
Maverick
Webb

500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000

11000

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

1000

2000

100,000

Thous Pounds of Frac Sand

Fig. 5 EUR vs. frac size in thousands of pounds of sand, all counties.

Are Longer Horizontals Better?

Information on horizontal length is available but tedious to assemble for such a large group of wells. As a proxy for
horizontal length, I substituted the length of perforated interval from the public records for 257 of the wells in the study group
and correlated it to the EUR forecast. Figure 6 summaries the data, again color coded by county. There appears to be a
trend of increasing EUR with perforated length up to approximately 5,000 ft., then the data suggests decreasing EUR vs.
length.
EUR vs. Perforated Length
(Are longer horizontals yielding more?)
700,000

Atascosa
De Witt
Dimmit
Gonzales
Karnes
LaSalle
Live Oak
McMullen
Maverick
Webb

500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

Perforated Length, Ft.

Fig. 6 EUR vs. perforated length, all counties.

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000

SPE 158207

Individual County Summaries

DE WITT COUNTY

Eagle Ford EUR Distribution - DeWitt County

20

100%

18

90%
80%

89 wells
Mean 403,715 BOE
Median 391,212 BOE

14
12

70%
60%

0%
More

0
550000

10%
500000

2
450000

20%

400000

350000

30%

300000

250000

40%

200000

150000

50%

100000

10

50000

Frequency

16

EUR - BOE
Fig. 7 EUR distribution, De Witt County. The distribution is unusual in that there are few small wells
and it is not log-normal.

100,000
DeWitt normalized (86 w ells)
()
CO,

Monthly Rate

10,000

1,000

100

10
2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Time

Fig. 8 Normalized decline of 86 wells in De Witt County. (Gas in dashed red, oil in solid green, well count in black).

SPE 158207

DE WITT COUNTY CONTINUED

EUR-BOE vs. Time - DEWITT COUNTY

(Are the wells getting better?)
700,000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-08

Jan-09

100,000

First Production
Fig. 9 EUR vs. date of first production, De Witt County.

Frac Sand vs. Time - DEWITT COUNTY

(Are the fracs getting bigger?)
11000

9000
8000
7000
6000
5000

De Witt

4000
3000
2000

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

1000
Jan-08

Thous. Pounds of Frac Sand

10000

First Production
Fig. 10 Frac size over time, De Witt County.

SPE 158207

DIMMIT COUNTY

Eagle Ford EUR Distribution - Dimmit County

35

100%
90%

30

80%

182 wells
Mean 180,870 BOE
Median 129,129 BOE

Frequency

25
20

70%
60%
50%

15

40%

10

30%
20%

10%
More

550000

500000

450000

400000

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

0%
50000

EUR - BOE
Fig. 11 EUR distribution, Dimmit County.

100,000
Dimmitt normalized (128 w ells)
()
CO,

Monthly Rate

10,000

1,000

100

10
2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

Time

Fig. 12 Normalized decline of 128 wells in Dimmit County. (Gas in dashed red, oil in solid green, well count in black).

10

SPE 158207

DIMMIT COUNTY - CONTINUED

EUR-BOE vs. Time DIMMIT COUNTY

(Are the wells getting better?)
700,000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000
500,000
400,000
Dimmit

300,000
200,000

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

100,000

First Production
Fig 13 EUR vs. date of first production, Dimmit County.

EUR vs. Perforated Length - DIMMIT COUNTY

(Are longer horizontals yielding more?)
700,000

500,000
400,000
Dimmit

300,000
200,000
100,000

Perforated Length, Ft.

Fig. 14 EUR vs. perforated length, Dimmit County.

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000

SPE 158207

11

KARNES COUNTY

Eagle Ford EUR Distribution - Karnes County

25

100%
90%

Frequency

20

80%

194 wells
Mean 210,801 BOE
Median 192,925 BOE

15

70%
60%
50%

10

40%
30%

20%
10%
More

550000

500000

450000

400000

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

0%
50000

EUR - BOE
Fig. 15 EUR distribution, Karnes County.

100,000
Karnes normalized (121 w ells on 113 lses)
()
CO,

Monthly Rate

10,000

1,000

100

10
2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

Time

Fig. 16 Normalized decline of 121 wells in Karnes County. (Gas in dashed red, oil in solid green, well count in black).

12

SPE 158207

KARNES COUNTY CONTINUED

EUR-BOE vs. Time - KARNES COUNTY

(Are the wells getting better?)
700,000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000
500,000
400,000
Karnes

300,000
200,000

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

100,000

First Production
Fig. 17 EUR vs. date of first production, Karnes County.

EUR vs. Frac Size - KARNES COUNTY

(Are bigger fracs yielding more?)
700,000

500,000
400,000
Karnes

300,000
200,000
100,000

Thous Pounds of Frac Sand

Fig. 18 EUR vs. frac sand, Karnes County.

11000

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000

SPE 158207

13

LA SALLE COUNTY

Eagle Ford EUR Distribution - La Salle County

35

100%
90%

30

80%

Frequency

25

70%

173 wells
Mean 194,991 BOE
Median 178,466 BOE

20

60%
50%

15

40%

10

30%
20%

10%
More

550000

500000

450000

400000

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

0%
50000

EUR - BOE
Fig. 19 EUR distribution, La Salle County.

100,000
LaSalle normalized (131 w ells on 126 lses)
()
CO,

Monthly Rate

10,000

1,000

100

10
2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

Time

Fig. 20 Normalized decline of 131 wells in La Salle County. (Gas in dashed red, oil in solid green, well count in black).

14

SPE 158207

LA SALLE COUNTY CONTINUED

EUR-BOE vs. Time - LA SALLE COUNTY

(Are the wells getting better?)
700,000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000
500,000
400,000
LaSalle

300,000
200,000

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

100,000

First Production

Fig. 21 EUR vs. date of first production, La Salle County.

EUR vs. Frac Size - LA SALLE COUNTY

(Are bigger fracs yielding more?)
700,000

500,000
400,000
LaSalle

300,000
200,000
100,000

Thous Pounds of Frac Sand

Fig. 22 EUR vs. frac sand, La Salle County.

11000

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000

SPE 158207

15

MCMULLEN COUNTY

Eagle Ford EUR Distribution - McMullen County

20

100%

18

90%

16

80%

65 wells
Mean 172,237 BOE
Median 126,427 BOE

12
10

70%
60%
50%

More

550000

0%
500000

0
450000

10%
400000

2
350000

20%

300000

250000

30%

200000

150000

40%

100000

50000

Frequency

14

EUR - BOE
Fig. 23 EUR distribution, McMullen County.

100,000
McMullen normalized (52 w ells)
()
CO,

Monthly Rate

10,000

1,000

100

10
2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

Time

Fig. 24 Normalized decline of 52 wells in McMullen County. (Gas in dashed red, oil in solid green, well count in black).

16

SPE 158207

MCMULLEN COUNTY CONTINUED

EUR-BOE vs. Time - MCMULLEN COUNTY

(Are the wells getting better?)
700,000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000
500,000
400,000
McMullen

300,000
200,000

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

100,000

First Production
Fig. 25 EUR vs. date of first production, McMullen County.

EUR vs. Perforated Length - MCMULLEN COUNTY

(Are longer horizontals yielding more?)
700,000

500,000
400,000
McMullen

300,000
200,000
100,000

Perforated Length, Ft.

Fig. 26 EUR vs. perforated length, McMullen County.

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000

SPE 158207

17

WEBB COUNTY

45

100%

40

90%

35

80%
70%

178 wells
Mean 192,697 BOE
Median 155,190 BOE

30
25

60%
50%

20

40%

15

30%

More

550000

500000

450000

EUR - BOE

400000

350000

0%
300000

0
250000

10%
200000

5
150000

20%

100000

10

50000

Frequency

Eagle Ford EUR Distribution - Webb County

Fig. 27 EUR distribution, Webb County.

100,000
Webb normalized (167 w ells)
()
CO,

Monthly Rate

10,000

1,000

100

10
2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

Time

Fig. 28 Normalized decline of 167 wells in Webb County. (Gas in dashed red, oil in solid green, well count in black).

18

SPE 158207

WEBB COUNTY - CONTINUED

EUR-BOE vs. Time - WEBB COUNTY

(Are the wells getting better?)
700,000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000
500,000
400,000
Webb

300,000
200,000

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

100,000

First Production
Fig. 29 EUR vs. date of first production, Webb County.

EUR vs. Frac Size - WEBB COUNTY

(Are bigger fracs yielding more?)
700,000

500,000
400,000
Webb

300,000
200,000
100,000

Thous Pounds of Frac Sand

Fig. 30 EUR vs. frac sand, Webb County.

11000

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

EUR, BBL equivalent 20:1

600,000

SPE 158207

19

Conclusions:

Estimated ultimate recovery from decline curves of horizontal wells indicates an average EUR for the Eagle Ford
shale of 206,800 BOE/well including an estimate of NGL.
The best counties appear to be De Witt (403,715 BOE), Live Oak (248,818 BOE limited well count) and Karnes
(210,801 BOE).
The normalized decline profiles of all established wells in 10 counties, suggests high initial decline rates and little
hyperbolic nature.
The per well EUR has not shown any general increase after mid-2010.
There are only rough correlations of EUR to frac size and perforated length.
Any reference to barrels-of-oil-equivalent (BOE) should include an explanation of the gas-to-oil conversion and
how NGL is handled.

References
Martin, R., Baihly, J., Malpani, R., et al. 2011. Understanding Production from Eagle Ford-Austin Chalk Systems. Paper SPE 145117
presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference, Denver, 30 October 2 November.
OConnor, L., Seidle, J., 2011. Well Performance and Economics of Selected U.S. Shales. Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers
(SPEE) Journal, volume VI issue 1, pg. 7, Spring 2012.
Seager, R. 2011. Shale Engineering. Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE) Journal, volume VI issue 1, pg. 15, Spring 2012.
Baihly, J., Altman, R., Malpani, R., et al. 2010. Shale Gas Production Decline Trend Comparison Over Time and Basins. Paper SPE
135555 presented a the SPE Annual Technical Conference, Florence, Italy, 19-22 September.
Mullen, J. 2010. Petrophysical Characterization of the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. Paper CSUG/SPE 138145 presented at the
Canadian Unconventional Resources & International Petroleum Conference, Calgary, 19-21 October.
Mullen, J., Lowry, J.C., Nwabouku, K.C., 2010. Lessons Learned Developing the Eagle Ford Shale. Paper SPE 138446 presented at the
SPE Tight Gas Completions, San Antonio, Texas, 2-3 November 2010.
Fan, L., Martin, R., Thompson, J., et al. 2011. An Integrated Approach for Understanding Oil and Gas Reserves Potential in Eagle Ford
Shale Formation. Paper CSUG/SPE 148751 presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference, Calgary, 15-17
November.
Centurion, S., 2011. Eagle Ford Shale: A Multi-Stage Hydraulic Fracturing, Completion Trends and Production Outcome Study Using
Practical Data Mining Techniques. Paper SPE 149258 presented at the SPE Eastern Regional Meeting, Columbus, Ohio, 17-19
August.
Bingziang, X., Haghighi, M., Cooke, D., et al. 2012. Production Data Analysis in Eagle Ford Shale Gas Reservoir. Paper SPE 153072
presented at the SPE/EAGE European Unconventional Resources Conference, Vienna, Austria, 20-22 March.
Maksoud, J. ed., Haines, L. ed., Beauboef, B. ed., et al. 2010. Eagle Ford: The Playbook, Houston: Hart Energy Publishing.
Eagle Ford output continues to soar. 2011. EP Magazine pg. 72 (October 2011).
Pioneer Natural Resources, 2011. Presentation at Barclays CEO Energy Conference, 7 September.
BHP Billiton Petroleum Investor Briefing. 14 November 2010.
http://www.bhpbilliton.com/home/investors/reports/Documents/2011/111114_BHPBillitonPetroleumInvestorBriefing_Presentation.pdf.