MODELING INTER-URBAN ROAD PASSENGER

TRAFFIC IN NIGER STATE

By
WOLE MORENIKEJI

ABSTRACT
The study examined the factors that explained the volume of road passenger traffic
from Minna to 24 other destinations within and outside Niger State. The regression
analysis reverted that only three of the hypothesized eight variables were significant
accounting for appreciable 72% of the variations in the traffic data. These are trip
frequency, rail connectivity and bus trips. The findings suggest that social and
economic factors are much more important than the traditional population and
distance factors associated with gravity models.

Introduction
The gravity model calibrated using the ordinary least square (OLS) method
has been found to be capable of production spurious results, due mis-specification,
for instance, estimating nonlinear relationship using a linear relationship. The
greatest source of worry is the influence of distance. Curry (1972) found out the even
if there is no frictional effect of distance, the gravity model will still give distance
considerable importance. He attributed this to the influence of map pattern.
Various authors have also found that distance parameter actually vary from
town to town. OSullivans (1970) study of 78 zones is Britain resulted in p values
ranging from 61.3 to 14.8 for freight flows. Alberet, al (1977) reported a.p value of
1.88 for commodity shipment between California and 47 other states. Abumeres

(1982) study of bus passengers traffic in 34 Nigerian town resulted in p values

ranging from -1.55 to 3.71. There were attempts to account for traffic variations by
including other variables. E.g. accessibility (Forheingham 1983) vehicle ownership,
road kilometerage, vehicle ownership, bus roate kilometer, annual income e.t.c.
(Fouraacer and Sayer 1977). Other studies broken away from the gravity model and
multiple regression method completely such studies include that of Filani (1973)
(input-out). Nihan and Holmesland (1980). Box and Jerkins Time series Technique
and Okuani (1984)- Kalman Filtering Theory. The Present study will explore the utility
of the regression model and consider other relevant variables in the traffic data in the
study area.

The Aim the Research

The aim of this study is develop a model that will explain the volume of inter-urban
passenger traffic in Niger state. The study will focus on how trips generated in Minna.
Are distributed to other selected urban centers in Nigeria.

The Objectives of Study

The objectives of this study are to:
1. Identify the variables accounting for the volume of traffic attracted by the
various destinations.
2. Build a quantitative model to explain the volume of traffic attracted from Minna
by these urban centers.
3. Discuss the planning Implications of the findings.
Scope and Limitation of Study
The study is limited to road transport and its focus is on commercial passenger

vehicles. Private road transport is excluded because of the problems of getting

relevant data. Even if it were possible to carry out a 100% origin and destination
survey, it would not have been possible to get similar data for the previous years for
a time-series analysis unless the study is conducted few years into the future date:
Moreover, this study is geared forwards generation a forecasting model for mass
transit planning and not for individual transport.
Survey in all the urban centers within the study area which usually entails
great costs terns if money, men and materials. Such a study can only be financed by
the public authorities or research agencies which only few countries can afford.
This accounts for the scarcity of data on inter-urban flows. Since the 1974
inter State flows survey in Nigeria, on other one has been carried out. A similar study
carried out in Malawi in 1974 by the Transport and Road Research Laboratory
focused on three towns. In similar vien, the scope of this present study will extend
only Minna as the trip generating center. The concern is on how all the trips
generated in Minna are distributed on the urban centers.
Passenger traffic data used for this analysis has its inherent problems and
should be interpreted with caution. The register from which the data was extracted
recorded not the numbers of passengers carried but the number of vehicles that
carried passengers to different locations outside Minna.
Through, in all cases, the record clearly distinguished between modes such
as bus and car, however, it failed to distinguish between type based on capacity.
That is, the record did not tell whether the car was salon or station wagon or whether
the bus was small, medium or big size.
This problem was circumvented by observing the present proportion of
vehicles type operating along each route and assumed that proportion is constant of

the pass years. The average capacity value of this mixture of vehicles type was used
to multiply the total number of vehicles that operated each day for each route. For
instance, if a route is characterized by a mixture of saloon (1 passenger) and station
wagon (8) an average value of 6 passengers was used as a constant to multiply the
number of vehicles operating along the rote per day. This appears not to pose any
serious problem since the aim of the study is not estimate passenger traffic but to
account for the variations in the observed traffic. Bus capacities were estimated
through the same method

Methodology
Predicting inter-urban road passenger traffic in Niger State requires the
collection of data on daily movement of passengers from the designated motor parks
in Minna and on various independent variables that might affect the volume of flow.
These data were obtained from the primary sources during the authors held work in
1995-1996. Collection of data on daily passenger flow from Minna to other urban
centers was made possible by the availability of daily vehicle movement register in
all the motor parks. The collection of the data was further entranced by the issuance
of a letter of authority to the researcher to do so by the state secretary of the
National Union of Road Transport Workers, Niger state chapter upon request.
The register are being kept for accounting purposes since the union collects
tax on each vehicle loading in each motor park. The 1996 register for vehicles were
obtained from the secretaries in charge of each route at the motor parks, that is:
Kontogora route comprising Kontogora, Zungeru, Lafia, Kafin-Koro; Suleja made up
of Suleja and Abuja, Kaduna, and Lagos route comprising of Bida, Ilorin and Lagos.
To arrive at the total number of passengers travelling out to each urban centre from

Minna, the numbers of vehicles were multiplied by the maximum passenger capacity
of the vehicle type. The maximum capacity was used because, on vehicle leaves a
motor park until it is fully loaded. If few cases where there are on enough passengers
fill a vehicle, it was assumed, (and this is often the case) that the driver will pick
passengers along the trip. In extranet cases where the number of passenger in the
vehicle are not sufficient to make up the trip economically viable for the driver (being
and economic man), the trip is usually cancelled and the passengers, advised to
seek alternative means of making the trip.
Supplementary data were collected to enhance accurate understanding of the
commuters behavior and to estimate some of the independent variables. Two sets of
questionnaires were designed to elicit information from the union officials (National
Union of Road Transport workers Union) and from the road passengers.
Information requested from the union officials included operating hours,
vehicle types and capacity, official maximum carrying capacity, e.tc. The passengers
on the other hand, were asked such question as to their place of usual residence,
origin and destination of tirp, frequency of trip of current destination within the last
one year, reason for choice for mode, purpose of trip at destination and other socieconomic questions that my influence propensity to travel.
A two stage sampling procedure was followed in carrying out the socioeconomic characteristics survey of the passengers. To take care of any variations in
the journey characteristic of the passengers that may be due to time of the day and
day of the week, the survey was conducted two times a day for five days in the week
that is weekdays (Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday) and weekends (Saturday and
Sunday) for the two months of March and October, 1995. The two months are
assumed to be free from the unusual traffic, that is, the end-of the-year rush. The

number of vehicles that move within a particular time period depends on the
availability of passengers, therefore it was decided that 150 samples be taken. That
is, for every route, a systematic sampling of 10 passengers was done in each of
morning (6.00am to 7.00am) and 5 in the afternoon 11.00 am to 1.00pm). Most
passengers travel early in morning.
The average number of passengers interviewed per route per day was thus
15 making a total of 75 samples for five days in a month and 150 in the two months.
A total sample of 1500 passengers were thus sampled in Minna.
Data Analysis
It has been observed (Kosing 1980 p. 165) that many current models of traffic
generation are based solely upon socio-economic characteristics of the different
zones (population, employment income, car ownership). However it is obvious that
the number of trips made by people will also depend on the quality of transport and
on the availability of attractive destinations and the inclusion of the trip rate into the
traffic generation models could be expected to the value of these models and bring
them closer to equilibrium models.
In view of the observations made above, it can be hypothesized that the
degree of spatial interaction between Minna and other towns as measured by the
volume of road passenger traffic is a function of:
1. Age of the travelers.
2. Mean annual trip frequency.
3. Population
4. Distance in kms.
5. Cost of transport.
6. Influence of competing modes of transport (bus trips, bus frequency and rail

connectively).
The danger of incorporating so many variables in one equation is that
there is the likelihood of pair-wise correlation among the Independent
variables which may lead to multicollinearity problems.
A vicariate correlation analysis of the variables were performed shows
that it is only in one case population versus distance (0.8362) is the bench
mark value of 0.80 (Hauser 1974) was exceeded. This appears not to be a big
problem.
The regression analysis was thus perfumed with all the eight variables
In explaining the variations in the passenger traffic, all the eight variables
were forced to enter the equation using the step-wise option of the SPSS. The
following are the steps at with each variable enters the equation in order of
importance.
Step 1
Logy=3.41 +
0.058x1
t=17.05
2.674
p 0.0000 0.0130
R = 0.47 R2 = 22% R2 (adj)=19% S=0.645 F=7.15 p=0.0130
Step 2
logy = 2.987+ 0.78x1 + 0.917x2
t
16.14 4.469 4.169
P
0.0000 -0.0002 00003
R=0.74 R2 = 55% R2 (adj). 51% S=0.501 F =14.608 p= 0.0001
Step 3
2.864 + 0.065x, + 0.990x2 +
0.1317x3
t 18. 849 4.459
5.577
3.782
P 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0010
R=0.849 R2=72% R2(adj) =69% S=0.402 F=19.91 P=0.0000
Step 4
Logy=3.37+0.56x1 + 1.05x2 + 0.127x3 0.32logx4
t 5.79 3.563
5.810
3.683 -1.308
p 0.000 0.0017
0.0000 0.0013 0.2045
R=0.86 R2=74% R2(adj) =70S=0.396 F=15.8 p=0.000

Step 5
Logy =4.078+0.047x1+1.0111x2+0.11930.517logx4+0.055logx5
t
6.482 2.992 5.916 3.625 -2.038 -1.925
p
0.000 0.0069 0.0000 0.0016 0.0544 0.0679
R= 0.88 R2=78% R2(adj)=73% S=0.374 F=14.995 p=0.0000
Step 6
Logy =4.73+0.49x1 +0.119x3.0519 logx4+0.666logx5-0.199logx6
t 5.641 3.14 5.627 3.658 -2.062 2.215 -1.175
p 0.0000 0.0049 0.0000 0.0016 0.0524 0.386 0.2540
R=0.89 R2=79% R2(adj)=73% S=0.37 F=12.91 p=0.0000
Step 7
Logy =4.975+0.042x1+0.864x2+0.864x3-0.991logx4+0.063logx5
t 5.796 2.524 4.432 3.001 -2.067 2.140
p 0.000 0.0207 0.0003 0.0073 0.0526 0.0455
-0.227logx6+0.214logx7
t -2.067 1.154
p 0.0526
0.2530
R=0.90 R2=81% R2(adj)=74%S=0.36 F=11.44 P=0.0000
Step 8
Logy =6.383+0.049x1+0.110x3-0.890logx4+0.072logx5
t 3.203 2.582 4.426 3.067 -1.776 2.259
p 0.0049 0.0188 0.0003 0.0066 0.0926 0.0365
-0.238logx6+0.185logx7-1.077logx8
-1.340 0.970 -0.785
0.1970
0.3447 0.4429
2
R=0.90 R =81% R2(adj)=73% S=0.37 F=9.88 P=0.0000
The full equation and the contribution of each variable to the explanatory power of
the model is thus set out.
Logy =6.383+0.049x1+0.911x2+0.110x3-0.890logx4+0.076logx5
R2

22.2

Contribution

54.9

72.2

74.2

78.1

22.2 32.7

17.3

2.0

3.9

-0.230logx6 + 0.185logx7 1.077logx8

R2
Contribution

79.5

80.8

81

1.4

1.3

0.2

Where
X1=Trip frequency
X2=Rail connectivity
X3=Bus Irip/day
X4=distance (dm)
X5=Income
X6=Bus trip frequency
X7=Population
X8=Age
A closer observation of the model suggests a good predictive model that accounts
for about 81% of the variations in city-pair passenger traffic but containing some
insignificant variables.
It can be observed that after step 3. All other variables become in elegant as
their t-values were insignificant at the probability value of 0.5(that is their p-values
exceeded 0.05) and their contribution to the models is less than 10%. The analysis
thus suggests that three variables Trip frequency, Rail connectivity and number of
bus trips are the only good predictor variables.
The predictive model therefore takes the form
Log Y = 2.864 + 0.0645 Trpfrq + 0.9899 Railocon + 0.1317 bustrp
R2=72% F=19.91 S=0.402

Fitting the model

The model was fitted to the 1996 data. The predicated, residuals and the
standardized predicated and residuals were obtained. These values are presented in
table 1. The line graph of the predicated and the actual values were then plotted.

This is shown figure 1.

Table 1: Predicted and Residual Values based on the model
S/N
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Town
Kotogora
Rijau
Sokoto
Gawu
Gwagwalad

Actual
4.34
3.11
2.64
2.85
2.99

Predicted
3.85027
3.67317
3.06038
3.12218
3.35891

Residual
0.485950.
-0.55989
-0.42389
-0.26909
-0.36636

Sid Prd
04064
-025003
-1.25576
-1.15432
-076580

Std Res
1.20877
-1.39270
-1.05441
-0.66936
-0.91130

6.
7.

a
Jos
Makurdi

3.17
3.41

3.33968
3.18165

-0.17118
0.22845

-1.05673
2.00077

-0.42181
0.5682

8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27
Source:

Suleja
Abuja
Enugu
Lemu
Wushishi
Zungeru
Adunu
Kafinkoro
Kwadudi
Lapai
Kaduna
Kano
Zaria
Bida
Kutigi
Mokwa
Adure
Ibadan
Ilorin
Lagos
0.71962

4.55
4.20
2.73
3.54
4.46
4.76
2.95
4.33
3.43
4.29
4.60
4.01
3.62
5.12
3.83
4.13
3.11
3.81
4.52
4.77

5.4456
3.77004
2.97189
3.06038
3.88627
4.44523
2.96092
3.42342
4.83113
4.42641
4.27611
3.98315
4.54110
4.07115
4.28996
3.08993
4.17936
4.44523
4.14247
4.47736

-0.49006
0.43470
-0.23950
0.47907
0.57493
0.31629
-0.01056
0.49979
0.00407
-0.54069
0.17268
-0.26999
-0.35979
0.57769
-0.23743
-0.15494
0.02401
-0.37122
0.37767
0.28930

-0.09103
-1.40099
-1.25576
0.09973
1.01713
-1.41866
0.01040
-0.65993
1.65047
0.98623
0.73956
0.25873
1.17447
0.40317
0.76179
-1.20726
0.58076
0.58079
0.52022
1.06986

7
-1.21899
1.08130
-0.59574
1.19166
1.43010
0.78675
0.78675
-0.02627
1.24319
0.01013
-034494
0.42953
-0.67159
-0.89497
1.43697
-0.59060
-0.38541
0.05973
-0.92338
0.93944

The plot shows that the model produced a fairly good fit as the residuals
are generally very smal. If the predicted values are accepted as the theoretical
values, they can be used to measure whether each town is receiving ther
expected traffic from Minna.
From fig. 1 it can then be seen that Rijau (2) and Sokoto (3), are receiving
far lass than the expected flow from Minna, that is the model over predicted the

passenger traffic for these towns. On the other hand, Konotgora (1), Soleja (8)
and Bida (21) are receiving than the expected flow.

6.8

Diagnostic checks on the model

The degree of confidence that could be placed on the model was verified by
examining the properties of the residuals. As observed by Bright man and Schneider
(1922 p), when the four assumptions about the multiple regression model are met,
that is normality, linearity, Independence and homoscedasticty, the residuals should
oscillate within an equal-width horizontal band centered on zero and should display
no systematic pattern of positive or negative residuals.
To check whether the present model display these, the scatter plots of the
standardized residual against the actual data and that against the standardized
predictive values both show that the scatter of points are random with no
systematice pattern. The points are equality distributed (about 13 points each) above
and below the zero line and all within an equal width of the zero line (-1,5-1,5) as
seen in figures 2 and 3

COMPARISON WITH OTHER RESULTS.

Model Utility
The overall utility of a model can be evaluated by considering the R2 value,
the significant of individual variables (t-values) and that of the F-value (Analysis of
Variance).
The model in this present study achieved an R2 of 72% with three significant
variables. For planning purposed, generally, a model with an R2 of about 70% has
been accepted good enough but many models produced in recent years do not meet
this criteria and give only the crudest notion of estimated values for the dependent

variable.
The Malawian study of Fouracre and Sayer (1977), However arrived R2
values of 93% and 79% ;for Blantyre and Lilongwe respectively. Four variables were
forced to enter the regression equation with only 3 and 2 variables found to be
significant at a=5% respectively for Blantyre and Llongwe.
The present study revealed that trip frequency, bus trip and rail connectivity
are important explanatory factors for inter-urban road passenger variations. This is
consistent with the findings of Oum and Gillen (1983 p. 187) who observed the
complementary nature of bus and rail modes in the overall inter-city passenger
transportation network in Canada through their model suggested a shift in
preferences over time towards the mode.
Thus, in the study area, if the level of service of the Nigerian Railway
corporation could be improved, the railway has the potential of snatching
customers away form the high cost of vehicle maintenance, the rail provides a good
alternative, especially for long distance journeys. It is suggested that the Minna-Baro
extension now in dis-use should be reactivated to improve transport network in the
state. This is in additional to the urgent need to build new lines in the country as a
whole.
The study also identified the number of bus trips operated daily by the states
Mass Transit Authority as a very good variable. Given the relatively lower fare
charged and accident-free record, the Niger State Transport Authoritys (N.A.T.A.)
impact was expected to the greater than was observed. Observation at the N.S.T.A.
parks at any time showed the gross inadequacy of buses in coping with the
passengers demand. It is recommended that luxury buses for long distance trips
should be introduced.

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