A

1982 33

H
1932 81

E
1985 8

1986 1

[]A
1986 2

[]R.M. 1985 65

1987 172

1985 2 11

23 362

23 307

25 431

34 170

33 205

L.F. UrwickThe Golden Book of ManagementEdited for the International Committee of Scientific Mange

mentCIOSNewman NeameLondon1956P51

1
3
2

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

1979 151

1 1991 322

Cn = x i / x i
i =1

1 1991 225

) ) )
Y = a + bX
) )
a b

) ) )
)
)
Y = b0 + b1 x1 + b2 x 2 , , b p x p
)
b0
) )
)
b1 , b2 , , b p

)
yt = f ( xt r )

)
yTth = g ( x Tth )

Money supply
Housing Permits
Stock market
Mortgage debt
Residential Investment
Business Loans
Capita1 goods orders
Inventeries
Business inventary
Credit outstanding
Industrial coustruction
Unemployed Rate
Automobile sales
Free reserves

28 9
l4 8
l4 5
l3 7
l1 9
l1 5
10 4
9 3
8 5
8 5
6 6
4 2
3 9
2 9

(Xij)

X ij
a ij =
, (i , j = 1, , n)
Xi

a11 a12 a1n

A=

an1 a n2 ann

[] 1982

1981

1986

1 1991 119180

[]H.A. 1982 33

[] 1984 60

32

[] 1982 50

[] 1982 50

[] 1987 280

O1

O2

A1

A2

Om

An

E11

P11

W11

E12

P12

W12

E21

P21

W21

E22

P22

W22

E23

P23

W23

B1

B2

En 1

Pn 1

Wn 1

En 2

Pn 2

Wn 2

En 3

Pn 3

Wn 3

Bn

0.7

0.3

0.7

0.3

0.7

100
-20
40
30

1.0 95
1.0 40
0.3

30

L1

L2

L3

L3

L2

L2

L3

L3

L3

L3

L3

L3

L3

L1

L2

L2

L2

L1

F1

F1

L2

L2

L2

F2

F2

L3

L3

L3

L1

F1

L2

F1

F2

L3

F2


A
A
A

A
A
A
A
A
A

B
C
D

A
A
A

B C
B D
CD
CB
DB
DC
B C D
C B D
DCD

B
B
C
C
D
D

C
D
B
D
B
C

n(
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

C
1
6
18
44
100
222
490
1080
2376
5210
11374
24708
2359602

1
2

2
4

10

12

15

2
4

10

10

2
4

10 4

22 24
25 27
28 30
31 33
34 36
37 39
40 42

8 11
7 10
69
58
4 71
46
45

35

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

20
25
35
5
90

20
20
35
25
10

20
10
30
20
15
10

25
15
20
15
25
30

25
25
10
20

10
25
10
20
35
35
10

35
30
20
50

90
30
65
30
30
25
50

A
A

 14 3

:
,

:
,

()

23 367

1.()
2.()

1.()
2.()

()

A
B
C

1
5
9
13

2
6
10
14

3
7
11
15

4
8
12
16

1 18

18 1

42 176

42 176

19 1

1.9

9.9

7
6
5

5.5

3
2
1

1.1

9.1

mtssionary

Comgromgser

deserter

autocrat

1 1991 139

19751982 1983 246

3 1991 897

899

898

3 1991 899

3 1991 901

4 1991 14401444

3 1991 902

3 1993 381382

1978 3

CF

Qi

Qi+1

=
100%

=
100%

=
100%
( )

=
100%

=
100%

=
100%

=
100%

=
100%

=
100%

(
)

= + +

=
100%

+
=
2

CF + P
Q=
( 24 1)
M C' v
CF
Qo =
(24 2)
M C 'v

dP = ( M C ' v ) dQ + QdM QdC' v dC F

P = ( M C 'v ) Q + Q M Q C ' v C F

dQo =

1
CF
CF
dC F +
2 dC' v
2 dM
M C 'v
( M C 'v )
( M C 'v )

1
CF
CF
Qo =
C F +
2 C 'v
2 M
M C' v
( M C' v )
( M C' v )

Q Qo
=
Q

a + 4m + b
t (i , j ) =
6

max
ES(i, j) = h {ES(h, i) + t(h,i)}(i, j = 2,3, , n)

min
LF (i , n) = i { EF ( i , n)}

min
LF (i , j ) = k { LF ( j , k ) t ( j , k )}
(i , j = 1,2, , n 1)

LS (i , j ) = LF (i , j ) t (i , j ) i , j = 1,2 , , n

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

620.21

3758.68

840.87

4209.19

750.00

500.00

36.50
438.12

39.01
0.34

221.20
2653.10

217.30
2.07

45.12
644.86

34.96
-0.16

181.11
024.20

152.22
1.70

41.50
537.00

35.00

240.00
220.00

170.00

106.24
18.05
0.08
7.l0
0.00
10.87

665.01
154.15
1.24
119.53
0.02
33.36
-0.07
87.25
611.19

116.09
45.21
0.76
22.21
0.01
22.23
0.07
17.57
120.75

849.36
158.57
-5.01
115.46
-0.04
43.08
0.31
67.27
825.48

136.50
25.00

870.00
150.00

19.20

115.00

5.80

35.00

12.00
130.30

70.00
835.00

11.66
105.45

450.51
184.35
4.42
9.72
19.98
214.29

10.7
21.8
2.8
30.8
29.7
26.5

741.32
204.99
4.15
1.64
17.25
223.81

16.5
-21.8
2.8
1.1
24.6
24.8

24 4/

5.95
70.6
5.8
17.7
21.6

4.3
71.8
3.6
20.2
30.4

1.6
1.2
2.2
2.5
8.8

5.9
70.6
5.8
17.7
21.6

5.3
71.6
3.8
18.9
22

0.6
1.0
2.0
1.2
0.4

=
100%

+
+

=
100%

90 1988

8082

]90 1988

90 1988

14

1.
2.

1.

2.

1.
2.
3.
4.

1.
2.

1.
2.

1.
2.

1.
2.