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SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.69994
R Square 0.489916
Adjusted R
0.4859
Standard Er18.00912
Observatio
129
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 39561.19 39561.19 121.9788 2.73E-020
127 41189.7 324.3283
128 80750.89

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept 19.69768 5.859503 3.361665 0.001024 8.102786 31.29258 8.102786
34.31 0.794526 0.071939 11.0444 2.73E-020 0.652171 0.936881 0.652171

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted 46.05
Residuals
1 47.2598 -0.749801
2 48.88858 -2.62858
3 48.89653 -2.356525
4 51.7012 -4.181203
5 49.91352 1.666481
6 52.09847 -1.978466
7 55.37191 -5.321915
8 56.19822 -3.868222
9 62.03004 -5.620045
10 58.20837 0.911626
11 53.98149 7.398506
12 56.9133 1.096704
13 57.95413 1.995875
14 62.75306 -3.033064
15 61.79169 -6.451687
16 59.28893 -1.018929
17 64.46924 -8.149241
18 66.57474 -5.274735
19 71.33395 -11.89395
20 71.81066 -11.55066
21 69.16489 -7.494891

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66.03446
66.90049
71.73121
68.66434
69.50654
74.86959
75.98193
76.06932
78.81839
77.72988
70.38846
66.48734
66.6383
68.92653
63.00731
66.7972
67.71885
70.53148
70.11832
73.32026
78.58797
77.18961
83.19623
87.86804
94.99494
92.5478
93.56479
95.48755
103.4805
109.1455
119.3313
126.0689
125.6637
112.3951
102.4158
80.56634
65.23199
52.36861
52.83738
50.75572
57.78727
59.14591
66.59857
75.02849
70.66655

0.665543
1.159509
-1.231211
3.095661
4.733463
0.66041
-0.171926
3.980676
-7.778385
-8.079884
2.151539
10.25266
10.1717
5.243467
16.91269
12.4528
10.53115
11.60852
16.18168
9.839737
3.482027
2.600394
-4.006225
-7.64804
-18.56494
-18.0878
-15.79479
-20.82755
-24.99048
-24.32545
-30.01128
-44.73886
-41.89365
-27.90507
-26.11582
-16.19634
-6.961986
6.281395
-4.037376
-9.245717
-13.12727
-6.595915
-12.79857
-20.29849
-10.20655

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76.14878
74.84575
79.85921
81.66279
78.86606
81.93293
80.39155
84.21322
86.6683
78.28605
79.55729
80.33593
80.5584
79.47784
84.76144
86.63652
90.5297
90.54559
90.07682
101.4227
106.7221
99.86539
96.17878
97.00509
88.28914
87.64557
88.28119
96.89386
98.00619
99.36483
100.8983
104.0446
101.7881
94.90754
85.0872
89.53654
94.48644
94.78836
90.79984
88.44804
89.50476
94.987
95.42398
93.54096
92.80999

-14.10878
-10.13575
-18.83921
-14.93279
-9.096057
-15.70293
-9.501547
-9.203219
-6.668305
-3.616053
-10.65729
-4.39593
-9.488398
-1.487842
-2.831442
-2.706524
-2.109703
-3.655593
-1.756823
-9.342658
-10.87215
-4.615386
-1.768785
-7.085092
-7.229139
-14.67557
-3.391193
-11.22386
-10.95619
-7.084835
-11.44827
-12.71459
-10.93814
-5.967542
6.222802
-0.636545
-7.096444
-9.338364
-2.489842
0.841956
3.345236
6.423005
9.556015
16.24904
15.73001

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127
128
129

94.78836
95.78947
102.8608
104.3704
104.1479
99.57936
94.27192
97.26729
94.87576
99.80182
99.78593
100.795
100.8824
103.7506
102.0027
96.40125
93.75548
86.7557

16.08164
12.90053
11.32925
6.06965
12.49212
24.02064
34.23808
33.81271
34.72424
31.11818
35.17407
35.89502
43.90762
42.98938
43.56734
54.12875
57.14452
69.9443

34.31 Residual
100
Residuals

0
20

40

60

80

-100
34.31

Upper 95.0%
31.29258
0.936881

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.803602
R Square 0.645776
Adjusted R 0.642987
Standard Er15.00758
Observatio
129
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1
52147
52147 231.5304 2.10E-030
127 28603.88 225.2274
128 80750.89

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept -214.6163 19.53815 -10.98448 3.83E-020 -253.2788 -175.9538 -253.2788
186.2 1.377531 0.090531 15.21612 2.10E-030 1.198387 1.556676 1.198387

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted 46.05
Residuals
1 43.53305 2.976951
2 44.35957 1.900432
3 45.87485 0.665148
4 46.70137 0.818629
5 46.28811 5.291888
6 46.42586 3.694135
7 46.97688 3.073123
8 48.35441 3.975592
9 48.49216 7.917838
10 47.52789 11.59211
11 48.0789 13.3011
12 49.59419 8.415814
13 51.66048 8.289517
14 53.45127 6.268726
15 53.17577 2.164232
16 53.31352 4.956479
17 54.5533 1.766701
18 55.93083 5.36917
19 59.23691 0.203095
20 59.78792 0.472082
21 57.58387 4.086132

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66

56.48184
58.54814
59.09915
60.61444
62.95624
64.33377
64.88478
65.7113
66.26231
64.88478
63.3695
62.95624
63.3695
64.21806
65.70992
68.26249
70.10012
71.83994
72.39508
72.32207
71.79586
72.58518
73.19956
74.90908
74.71485
76.15299
76.99742
79.52519
81.30909
83.80104
86.80819
88.39098
87.1815
86.76411
83.71977
78.00577
74.97933
76.23977
77.68618
78.39699
79.12846
79.97702
82.50754
82.03642
82.70177

10.21816
9.511861
11.40085
11.14556
11.28376
11.19623
10.92522
14.3387
4.777686
4.765217
9.170501
13.78376
13.4405
9.951942
14.21008
10.98751
8.149884
10.30006
13.90492
10.83793
10.27414
7.204817
5.990438
5.310922
1.715154
-1.692989
0.772585
-4.865185
-2.819088
1.018958
2.511807
-7.060976
-3.411504
-2.274112
-7.419768
-13.63577
-16.70933
-17.58977
-28.88618
-36.88699
-34.46846
-27.42702
-28.70754
-27.30642
-22.24177

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111

82.88774
83.17427
83.38503
82.86019
83.87681
83.95119
85.1772
85.6979
85.93071
85.63729
85.70066
86.11529
86.29024
86.66493
86.79166
87.30961
88.74776
90.24376
93.21647
95.19874
96.65616
96.3228
96.59831
97.45651
97.93038
97.2857
97.02259
96.25392
97.62181
98.99659
101.3783
102.333
101.961
101.4968
100.9816
102.738
104.1541
104.0301
102.5203
101.6662
102.6016
105.1996
106.0358
105.7024
106.2727

-20.84774
-18.46427
-22.36503
-16.13019
-14.10681
-17.72119
-14.2872
-10.6879
-5.930705
-10.96729
-16.80066
-10.17529
-15.22024
-8.674929
-4.861662
-3.379614
-0.327757
-3.353756
-4.896468
-3.118735
-0.806163
-1.072801
-2.188307
-7.536509
-16.87038
-24.3157
-12.13259
-10.58392
-10.57181
-6.716589
-11.92834
-11.00297
-11.11104
-12.55681
-9.671611
-13.83796
-16.76407
-18.58009
-14.21031
-12.37624
-9.751588
-3.789612
-1.055774
4.087589
2.267291

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127
128
129

107.0427
107.1695
107.5566
107.9313
107.1006
106.4435
106.416
107.6103
108.8019
110.8847
111.9578
113.0984
113.7086
113.5805
113.0323
113.2788
112.4551
110.853

3.827251
1.520518
6.633432
2.508744
9.539395
17.15648
22.09403
23.46971
20.79814
20.03532
23.00222
23.59162
31.08138
33.15949
32.53775
37.25117
38.44493
45.847

186.2 Residual Plot


100
Residuals

50
0
8000.0
-50

10000.0

12000.0
186.2

Upper 95.0%
-175.9538
1.556676

14000.0

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.056443
R Square 0.003186
Adjusted R -0.004663
Standard Er25.17555
Observatio
129
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
1 257.2566 257.2566
127 80493.63 633.8081
128 80750.89

F
Significance F
0.40589 0.52521

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept 76.79459 8.462697 9.074482 1.83E-015 60.04844 93.54074 60.04844
5.7 0.759308 1.191827 0.637095 0.52521 -1.599104 3.117719 -1.599104

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted 46.05
Residuals
1 81.04671 -34.53671
2 81.19857 -34.93857
3 81.04671 -34.50671
4 81.04671 -33.52671
5 81.04671 -29.46671
6 80.97078 -30.85078
7 80.89485 -30.84485
8 80.89485 -28.56485
9 80.97078 -24.56078
10 80.89485 -21.77485
11 80.89485 -19.51485
12 80.81892 -22.80892
13 80.89485 -20.94485
14 80.74299 -21.02299
15 80.74299 -25.40299
16 80.66706 -22.39706
17 80.59113 -24.27113
18 80.59113 -19.29113
19 80.5152 -21.0752
20 80.59113 -20.33113
21 80.59113 -18.92113

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80.59113
80.5152
80.36334
80.43927
80.36334
80.36334
80.2874
80.2874
80.36334
80.36334
80.21147
80.13554
80.21147
80.13554
80.2874
80.21147
80.13554
80.21147
80.13554
80.2874
80.36334
80.2874
80.36334
80.36334
80.36334
80.59113
80.59113
80.5152
80.66706
80.59113
80.89485
81.04671
81.19857
81.42637
81.42637
81.73009
81.95788
82.33754
82.71719
83.09684
83.40057
83.62836
83.93208
84.00801
84.00801

-13.89113
-12.4552
-9.863335
-8.679266
-6.123335
-4.833335
-4.477405
-0.237405
-9.323335
-10.71334
-7.671474
-3.395543
-3.401474
-5.965543
-0.367405
-0.961474
-1.885543
1.928526
6.164457
2.872595
1.706665
-0.497405
-1.173335
-0.143335
-3.933335
-6.131128
-2.821128
-5.855197
-2.177059
4.228872
8.425149
0.283288
2.571426
3.063634
-5.126366
-17.36009
-23.68788
-23.68754
-33.91719
-41.58684
-38.74057
-31.07836
-30.13208
-29.27801
-23.54801

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84.08394
84.2358
84.38767
84.31174
84.31174
84.15987
84.2358
84.31174
84.31174
84.08394
83.93208
84.00801
84.00801
84.00801
84.00801
84.2358
83.93208
83.70429
83.62836
83.62836
83.70429
83.62836
83.70429
83.62836
83.62836
83.62836
83.4765
83.32464
83.2487
83.02091
83.09684
83.02091
83.02091
83.02091
83.02091
83.02091
82.94498
82.71719
82.71719
82.71719
82.79312
82.79312
82.64126
82.4894
82.4894

-22.04394
-19.5258
-23.36767
-17.58174
-14.54174
-17.92987
-13.3458
-9.301735
-4.311735
-9.413943
-15.03208
-8.068012
-12.93801
-6.018012
-2.078012
-0.305804
4.487919
3.185711
4.691642
8.451642
12.14571
11.62164
10.70571
6.291642
-2.568358
-10.65836
1.413503
2.345365
3.801296
9.259088
6.353157
8.309088
7.829088
5.919088
8.289088
5.879088
4.445019
2.732811
5.592811
6.572811
10.05688
18.61688
22.33874
27.3006
26.0506

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82.4894
82.4894
82.33754
82.2616
82.2616
82.2616
82.10974
81.88195
81.80602
81.88195
81.88195
81.57823
81.57823
81.42637
81.5023
81.42637
81.2745
81.19857

28.3806
26.2006
31.85246
28.1784
34.3784
41.3384
46.40026
49.19805
47.79398
49.03805
53.07805
55.11177
63.21177
65.31363
64.0677
69.10363
69.6255
75.50143

5.7 Residual Plot


100
Residuals

50
0
4.0
-50

5.0

6.0

7.0
5.7

Upper 95.0%
93.54074
3.117719

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9164323108
R Square
0.8398481804
Adjusted R Square
0.8360350418
Standard Error
10.2111695719
Observations
130
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Crude Oil X1
PDI X2
Unemployement X3

SS
MS
F
3 68895.43236339 22965.14 220.2512
126 13137.76598738 104.268
129 82033.19835077

Coefficients
-113.6940964923
0.0316700671
0.0213742191
-6.2870792088

Standard Error
9.8255743746
0.0651962246
0.001335397
0.5737477239

Predicted Airline Index


38.6382797288
40.1147542429
39.9289877593
42.1335982088
43.867696777
44.4184289025
45.6963714708
47.1780086744
47.5871318007
48.1142484383
48.7829913086
55.8689165217
49.9884790623
50.0553100344
52.7009693522
53.6159387439
55.1494742522
56.67719571
58.118384302

Residuals
7.4117202712
6.3952457571
6.3310122407
4.4064017912
3.652303223
7.1615710975
4.4236285292
2.8719913256
4.7428681993
8.2957515617
10.3370086914
5.5110834783
8.0215209377
9.8946899656
7.0190306478
1.7240612561
3.1205257478
-0.35719571
3.181615698

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

t Stat
-11.57124
0.485765
16.00589
-10.95792

P-value
1.52E-021
0.627977
3.77E-032
4.89E-020

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60.0781792258
60.3811525017
61.5538694818
62.3652802151
64.1634795444
69.3111893022
69.5519986896
70.9516874413
71.7746256391
72.736223612
73.7186465552
73.9005914537
74.4962926135
76.2519231429
77.392006671
77.594360921
79.776275223
79.1571229436
81.238587029
83.3467920184
83.2127946573
84.342290246
83.4155598563
83.8432435574
84.7453751347
85.8031275555
86.2308762261
87.4297733063
87.029935374
88.3165900346
89.9303438305
90.1970348221
90.7394867221
100.8759554337
95.0843147241
91.0427857718
86.5395106807
86.6397539436
83.1300249444
79.5831947281
73.8215561541
71.8167109713
66.9999538885
64.564484639
64.341995391

-0.6381792258
-0.1211525017
0.1161305182
4.3347197849
3.8965204556
1.1888106978
2.2080013104
3.2883125587
3.7553743609
3.073776388
6.3313534448
-2.8605914537
-4.8462926135
-3.7119231429
-0.652006671
-0.784360921
-5.606275223
0.7628770564
-1.988587029
-5.0967920184
-1.0727946573
1.957709754
-0.2555598563
-1.7732435574
-4.9553751347
-6.6131275555
-6.0108762261
-10.9997733063
-12.569935374
-10.5465900346
-15.2703438305
-11.7070348221
-5.9194867221
-11.5559554337
-13.7543147241
-7.2727857718
-2.0495106807
-10.3397539436
-18.7600249444
-21.3131947281
-15.1715561541
-23.0167109713
-25.4899538885
-19.904484639
-11.791995391

65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109

66.0699097866
63.1439174817
62.0317205939
61.6664219961
61.0581416315
59.759035237
61.5475819635
62.3787063906
63.7968422857
62.7198210686
63.0407045437
64.865601956
68.1168569311
69.6515116029
69.5390351218
70.633713072
70.5179694358
71.8870580583
71.1807227826
76.1441915066
79.8669940931
81.8492415421
82.8807314382
82.8992969349
83.9365297668
84.3321799426
86.4942949156
86.5508470211
86.2067184018
87.8677939757
89.5711095964
92.2340954115
96.7456935492
98.0740020939
99.982331313
100.758044197
100.4068342272
100.4621133777
100.0217508207
101.1641017025
105.2039568467
107.282853852
110.7393682496
117.7662783692
101.7168836583

-12.2699097866
-8.4139174817
-1.5717205939
0.3735780039
3.6518583685
1.260964763
5.1824180365
7.3912936094
2.4331577143
8.1701789314
11.9692954563
15.134398044
6.5531430689
-0.7515116029
6.4009648782
0.436286928
7.4720305642
10.0429419417
12.7492772174
12.2758084934
7.0230059069
6.4707584579
9.1992685618
12.9507030651
11.3134702332
10.0778200574
3.4257050844
-5.4908470211
-13.2367184018
-2.9777939757
-3.9011095964
-5.1840954115
-4.4656935492
-8.6240020939
-8.652331313
-9.908044197
-11.4668342272
-9.1521133777
-11.1217508207
-13.7741017025
-19.7539568467
-18.972853852
-21.4493682496
-24.9162783692
-0.3068836583

110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130

105.1633386998
107.0660076669
107.3745838673
108.7081089968
109.9706186151
111.5996697743
113.4876445153
114.4940523049
113.7775939411
115.3342975717
117.1196630303
119.2283239985
120.3520136457
122.0121570701
125.4798888953
126.5841448875
129.1849072709
129.1021027132
130.3454060507
131.8649971379
132.7148484953

-0.1833386998
2.7239923331
1.1654161327
2.1618910032
-1.2806186151
2.5903302257
-3.0476445153
2.1459476951
9.8224060589
13.1757024283
13.9603369697
10.3716760015
10.5679863543
12.9478429299
11.2101111047
18.2058551125
17.5550927291
16.4678972868
20.1845939493
19.0350028621
23.9851515047

Crude Oil X1 Re
50
Residuals

0
20

40

60

-50

Crude

Significance F
6.3525936E-050

Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-133.138619327 -94.249573657 -133.13861933 -94.24957
-0.0973513448 0.160691479 -0.0973513448 0.160691
0.0187315076 0.0240169306 0.0187315076 0.024017
-7.4225090874 -5.1516493302 -7.4225090874 -5.151649

Crude Oil X1 Residual Plot

uals

PDI X2 Residual Plot

50

50

0
20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-50

Residuals

Crude Oil X1

0
8000.0

10000.0

-50
PDI X2

Unemployement X3 Residual Plot


50
Residuals

0
4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

-50
Unemployement X3

10.0

11.0

12000.0

sidual Plot

00.0
PDI X2

12000.0

14000.0

Date
1/5/2004
2/2/2004
3/1/2004
4/1/2004
5/3/2004
6/1/2004
7/1/2004
8/2/2004
9/1/2004
10/1/2004
11/1/2004
12/1/2004
1/3/2005
2/1/2005
3/1/2005
4/1/2005
5/2/2005
6/1/2005
7/1/2005
8/1/2005
9/1/2005
10/3/2005
11/1/2005
12/1/2005
1/3/2006
2/1/2006
3/1/2006
4/3/2006
5/1/2006
6/1/2006
7/3/2006
8/1/2006
9/1/2006
10/2/2006
11/1/2006
12/1/2006
1/3/2007
2/1/2007
3/1/2007
4/2/2007
5/1/2007
6/1/2007
7/2/2007

Airline Index
46.05
46.51
46.26
46.54
47.52
51.58
50.12
50.05
52.33
56.41
59.12
61.38
58.01
59.95
59.72
55.34
58.27
56.32
61.3
59.44
60.26
61.67
66.7
68.06
70.5
71.76
74.24
75.53
75.81
80.05
71.04
69.65
72.54
76.74
76.81
74.17
79.92
79.25
78.25
82.14
86.3
83.16
82.07

Crude Oil X1
34.31
34.69
36.74
36.75
40.28
38.03
40.78
44.9
45.94
53.28
48.47
43.15
46.84
48.15
54.19
52.98
49.83
56.35
59
64.99
65.59
62.26
58.32
59.41
65.49
61.63
62.69
69.44
70.84
70.95
74.41
73.04
63.8
58.89
59.08
61.96
54.51
59.28
60.44
63.98
63.46
67.49
74.12

PDI X2
8752.7
8791.8
8838.9
8883.2
8959.1
8988.2
9014.5
9048.3
9065.9
9109.1
9118.1
9457.5
9147.5
9178.1
9234.1
9278.7
9325.7
9358.1
9421.6
9475.0
9517.7
9577.5
9621.3
9674.4
9847.4
9893.8
9928.3
9956.8
9970.3
10016.1
10048.9
10078.8
10115.8
10147.0
10185.6
10254.0
10294.9
10355.8
10423.3
10441.2
10465.4
10474.9
10514.5

Unemployement X3
5.7
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.7

8/1/2007
9/4/2007
10/1/2007
11/1/2007
12/3/2007
1/2/2008
2/1/2008
3/3/2008
4/1/2008
5/1/2008
6/2/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
9/2/2008
10/1/2008
11/3/2008
12/1/2008
1/2/2009
2/2/2009
3/2/2009
4/1/2009
5/1/2009
6/1/2009
7/1/2009
8/3/2009
9/1/2009
10/1/2009
11/2/2009
12/1/2009
1/4/2010
2/1/2010
3/1/2010
4/1/2010
5/3/2010
6/1/2010
7/1/2010
8/2/2010
9/1/2010
10/1/2010
11/1/2010
12/1/2010
1/3/2011
2/1/2011
3/1/2011
4/1/2011

79.79
79.19
80.22
76.43
74.46
77.77
74.66
78.49
84.82
89.32
81.33
83.77
84.49
76.3
64.37
58.27
58.65
48.8
41.51
44.66
52.55
53.8
54.73
60.46
62.04
64.71
61.02
66.73
69.77
66.23
70.89
75.01
80
74.67
68.9
75.94
71.07
77.99
81.93
83.93
88.42
86.89
88.32
92.08
95.85

72.36
79.92
85.8
94.77
91.69
92.97
95.39
105.45
112.58
125.4
133.88
133.37
116.67
104.11
76.61
57.31
41.12
41.71
39.09
47.94
49.65
59.03
69.64
64.15
71.05
69.41
75.72
77.99
74.47
78.33
76.39
81.2
84.29
73.74
75.34
76.32
76.6
75.24
81.89
84.25
89.15
89.17
88.58
102.86
109.53

10529.9
10597.6
10608.9
10651.7
10725.8
10784.1
10826.6
10883.0
10868.4
11441.3
11216.6
11087.1
10989.4
11012.7
11006.9
10957.8
10859.3
10911.7
10837.3
10827.9
10903.2
11087.8
10964.6
10920.7
10922.8
10955.6
10944.3
10995.2
11039.3
11041.1
11023.0
11060.3
11141.1
11220.6
11231.2
11253.9
11304.7
11301.3
11355.5
11407.2
11514.5
11600.4
11664.6
11691.7
11712.1

4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
5.0
5.0
4.9
5.1
5.0
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.1
6.1
6.5
6.8
7.3
7.8
8.3
8.7
9.0
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.8
10.0
9.9
9.9
9.7
9.8
9.9
9.9
9.6
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.8
9.4
9.1
9.0
9.0
9.1

5/2/2011
6/1/2011
7/1/2011
8/1/2011
9/1/2011
10/3/2011
11/1/2011
12/1/2011
1/3/2012
2/1/2012
3/1/2012
4/2/2012
5/1/2012
6/1/2012
7/2/2012
8/1/2012
9/4/2012
10/1/2012
11/1/2012
12/3/2012
1/2/2013
2/1/2013
3/1/2013
4/1/2013
5/1/2013
6/3/2013
7/1/2013
8/1/2013
9/3/2013
10/1/2013
11/1/2013
12/2/2013
1/2/2014
2/3/2014
3/3/2014
4/1/2014
5/1/2014
6/2/2014
7/1/2014
8/1/2014
9/2/2014
10/1/2014

95.25
94.41
89.92
81.06
72.97
84.89
85.67
87.05
92.28
89.45
91.33
90.85
88.94
91.31
88.9
87.39
85.45
88.31
89.29
92.85
101.41
104.98
109.79
108.54
110.87
108.69
114.19
110.44
116.64
123.6
128.51
131.08
129.6
130.92
134.96
136.69
144.79
146.74
145.57
150.53
150.9
156.7

100.9
96.26
97.3
86.33
85.52
86.32
97.16
98.56
100.27
102.2
106.16
103.32
94.66
82.3
87.9
94.13
94.51
89.49
86.53
87.86
94.76
95.31
92.94
92.02
94.51
95.77
104.67
106.57
106.29
100.54
93.86
97.63
94.62
100.82
100.8
102.07
102.18
105.79
103.59
96.54
93.21
84.4

11744.0
11798.8
11869.0
11887.9
11873.0
11890.7
11895.5
11988.6
12108.9
12197.6
12251.6
12292.1
12288.5
12309.4
12280.5
12295.3
12395.5
12500.2
12666.3
13022.5
12261.4
12363.0
12396.7
12412.5
12471.2
12528.4
12532.6
12588.7
12636.2
12611.2
12635.1
12624.8
12698.5
12771.3
12849.0
12891.7
12943.2
13000.7
13029.5
13068.7
13085.9
13109.3

9.0
9.1
9.0
9.0
9.0
8.8
8.6
8.5
8.2
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.1
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.9
7.9
7.7
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.3
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.0
6.7
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.3
6.3
6.1
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.8

Correlation

Airline + Crude Airline + PDI


0.7056062878
Err:508

Correlation

Crude + PDI
Crude +Unemployment
Err:508
Err:508

PDI X2
Figure 1

14000.0
12000.0
10000.0
8000.0
6000.0
4000.0
2000.0
0.0
4/19/2001

1/14/2004

10/10/2006

7/6/2009

4/1/2012

12/27/2014

9/22/2017

Crude Oil X1
160
140

Figure 2

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
4/19/2001

1/14/2004

10/10/2006

7/6/2009

4/1/2012

Unemployement X3
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0

12/27/2014

9/22/2017

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
4/19/2001

1/14/2004

10/10/2006

7/6/2009

4/1/2012

12/27/2014

9/22/2017

4/1/2012

12/27/2014

9/22/2017

Airline Index
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
4/19/2001

1/14/2004

10/10/2006

7/6/2009

Airline + Unemployment
Err:508
PDI+ Unemployment
Err:508

Chart Title
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
12/27/2014

9/22/2017

Airline Index

Crude Oil X1

Chart Title
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
12/27/2014

9/22/2017

Airline Index

Chart Title
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000

Unemployement X3

2/27/2014

2/27/2014

Chart Title
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
9/22/2017
Airline Index

9/22/2017

PDI X2

ude Oil X1

yement X3