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Construct a 98% confidence interval for the mean volume of bleach in a 5-litre
bottle.
(5)
(b)
It is claimed that the mean volume of bleach in a 5-litre bottle exceeds 5 litres and
also that fewer than 10 per cent of such bottles contain less than 5 litres.
Comment, with numerical justification, on each of these two claims.
(3)
(c)
State, with justification, whether you made use of the Central Limit Theorem in
constructing the confidence interval in part (a).
(1)
(Total 9 marks)
Q2.The weight, W grams, of a bag of sugar may be assumed to be normally distributed with a
mean of 1018 and a standard deviation of 10.
(a)
(ii)
(b)
A box contains 24 such bags of sugar. Assuming that these 24 bags may be
regarded as a random sample, determine the probability that their mean weight
exceeds 1015 grams.
(4)
(Total 9 marks)
Page 1
Q3.A random sample of 50 full-time university employees was selected as part of a higher
education salary survey.
The annual salary in thousands of pounds, x, of each employee was recorded, with the
following summarised results.
x = 2290.0
and
(x xx) = 28 225.50
2
Also recorded was the fact that 6 of the 50 salaries exceeded 60 000.
(a)
(i)
(ii)
(3)
(b)
(i)
Indicate why the mean annual salary, Xx, of a random sample of 50 full-time
university employees may be assumed to be normally distributed.
(2)
(ii)
Hence construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean annual salary of fulltime university employees.
(4)
(c)
Page 2
xx =
M1.(a)
5.05 or 5050
CAO
B1
CI for is
Used with z (2.05 to 2.58), xx (5.05, 5050 or 181.8),
(0.0075, 0.075, 0.75, 7.5 or 75)
and
with n > 1
M1
Page 3
Note
(b)
so
8 / 36 OE >/ 1 / 10 OE
so
disagree with (second) claim (about individuals)
Dependent on B1
Explicit comparison of values and correct conclusion
Bdep1
3
Page 4
(c)
[9]
M2.(a)
Weight, W N (1018, 10 )
2
(i)
M1
P(Z < 0.7) = 0.758
AWRT (0.75804)
A1
2
(ii)
Page 5
(b)
to 4.2
CAO/AWFW (4.16666)
B1
or
to 2.05
CAO/AWFW (2.04124)
; not
M1
[9]
Page 6
M3.(a)
(i)
xx =
= 45.8 or 45800
CAO
B1
(s =)
2
or (s =)
Ignore notation
M1
(24.00064)
(ii)
xx ns = (45.8 n 24.0)
Page 7
Alternative solution 1
P(X ) = P(Z < 1.91)
Standardising 0 using 45.8 & 24.0
2
(M1)
= 0.027 to 0.03
In addition to probability within range,
must state that negative salaries are impossible
(A1)
(2)
Alternative solution 2
P(X > 60 | N(45.8, 24.0 )) = P(Z > 0.59)
Standardising 60 using 45.8 & 24.0
2
(M1)
= 0.27 to 0.28
In addition to probability within range,
must compare calculated value to 6 / 50 = 0.12 OE
(A1)
(2)
(b)
(i)
Page 8
so CLT applies
Must indicate CLT; dependent on B1
Indication that other than sample mean
is normally distributed Bdep0
Bdep1
2
(ii)
xx z
Used with (xx & s) from (a)(i) and
z(1.64 to 2.58) &
with n > 1
M1
Thus
45.8 2.5758
F on (xx & s) with
&
z(1.64 to 1.65 or 2.32 to 2.33 or 2.57 to 2.58)
AF1
Page 9
(c)
Page 10
(B0)
[14]
Page 11
E1.The better students generally scored full marks in part (a) usually by working in litres.
However, far too many students provided answers that ranged from worthless to scoring
at most 3 marks. Errors seen in abundance were:
an incorrect evaluation of
an incorrect zvalue;
Many of these errors resulted in absurd confidence intervals that students appeared to
simply accept as correct. The one mark for answering the first claim in part (b) was only
available to those better students who had obtained a correct confidence interval in part
(a)(ii). Even so, many such students made no comparison using the stated mean of 5
litres but merely commented that their calculated mean of 5.05 was greater than 5. This
was very disappointing particularly given similar requests on previous papers. In
answering the second claim in part (b), many students again referred to their confidence
interval and so scored no marks. Of those that correctly evaluated
as 22%, far too
many were not sufficiently explicit in comparing this with 10% and so scored only 1 of the
2 marks available. It was extremely rare to see an answer worthy of the mark in part (c).
Most students made reference to sample size although some suggested that the question
had stated that volume was normally distributed! The minority who had some idea of what
was required were almost always not sufficiently precise or careful enough in their
answers. Thus it was common to read references to the sample, the data or it rather
than for example the (parent) population or volume (of bleach).
E2.Most candidates achieved the 5 marks available in part (a) but very few were able to make
significant progress in part (b). This was disappointing, particularly as the distribution of
the sample mean has been examined on several previous papers. Almost all candidates
knew how to standardise without introducing an unnecessary continuity correction,
which was penalised and so the majority completed part (a)(i) accurately. In part (a)(ii),
the majority of candidates realised that a difference of two areas was required, with many
obtaining the correct answer. Failure to apply the necessary area change for P (Z < 0.3)
was by far the most common error. The majority of candidates simply worked with the
distribution of W, rather than
the distribution of
, and so obtained correctly P (Z > 147), sometimes then failed to
make the correct area change and so lost 2 marks.
Page 12
E3.Most candidates found much of this question very challenging. In part (a)(i), it was most
disappointing to see the number of candidates failing to score 3 marks. Whilst there was
some excuse for candidates dividing (x xx) by 50, rather than 49, there was really no
2
Page 13