Aeotab 12

ref2015.
d021915a
2012
2013
2014
2015
Report
Annual Energy Outlook 2015
Scenario ref2015
Datekey d021915a
Release Date
April 2015
12. Petroleum and Other Liquids Prices

(2013 dollars per gallon, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Fuel
2012
2013
2014
2015
113.31
108.64
97.47
55.62
95.53
97.91
91.80
52.72
102.59
98.12
87.70
49.51
17.79
10.73
5.67
2.90
Propane
2.22
2.13
2.17
1.92
Distillate Fuel Oil
3.79
3.78
3.63
2.60
Distillate Fuel Oil
3.69
3.68
3.54
2.53
Residual Fuel Oil
3.43
3.31
2.96
1.67
144.04
139.04
124.41
70.19
Propane
1.95
1.85
1.89
1.56
Distillate Fuel Oil
3.76
3.75
3.61
2.58
Residual Fuel Oil
3.09
3.00
2.67
1.51
129.80
125.88
112.25
63.62
Propane
2.31
2.24
2.27
2.01
E85 3/
3.39
3.14
3.07
2.14
Ethanol Wholesale Price
2.58
2.37
2.19
2.16
Motor Gasoline 4/
3.72
3.55
3.35
2.31
Jet Fuel 5/
3.10
2.94
2.67
1.71
Crude Oil Prices (2013 dollars per barrel)

Brent Spot
West Texas Intermediate Spot
Average Imported Cost 1/
Brent / West Texas Intermediate Spread
Delivered Sector Product Prices
Residential
Commercial
Residual Fuel Oil (2013 dollars per barrel)

Industrial 2/

Transportation
Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil) 6/
3.94
3.86
3.70
2.70
Residual Fuel Oil
3.00
2.89
2.60
1.48
125.81
121.55
109.01
62.02
Distillate Fuel Oil
3.34
3.33
3.22
2.30
Residual Fuel Oil
3.12
2.83
2.99
1.72
130.93
118.78
125.77
72.11
Propane
2.09
2.00
2.06
1.78
Motor Gasoline 4/
3.70
3.53
3.33
2.31
Jet Fuel 5/
3.10
2.94
2.67
1.71
Distillate Fuel Oil
3.89
3.83
3.67
2.66
Residual Fuel Oil
3.04
2.90
2.73
1.56
127.65
121.71
114.63
65.72
3.29
3.16
3.01
2.11
111.65
108.64
99.02
57.58
94.12
97.91
93.26
54.58
101.09
98.12
89.09
51.26
Propane
2.19
2.13
2.21
1.99
Distillate Fuel Oil
3.73
3.78
3.69
2.69
Distillate Fuel Oil
3.63
3.68
3.59
2.62
Residual Fuel Oil
3.38
3.31
3.01
1.73
Propane
1.92
1.85
1.92
1.62
Distillate Fuel Oil
3.71
3.75
3.67
2.67
Residual Fuel Oil
3.05
3.00
2.72
1.57
Propane
2.28
2.24
2.30
2.08
E85 3/
3.34
3.14
3.12
2.21

Electric Power 7/

Average Prices, All Sectors 8/

Average
Prices in Nominal Dollars

Crude Oil Spot Prices (nominal dollars per barrel)
Brent Spot
West Texas Intermediate Spot
Average Imported Cost 1/
Delivered Sector Product Prices
Nominal Dollars per Gallon
Residential
Commercial
Industrial 2/
Transportation
Ethanol Wholesale Price
2.55
2.37
2.23
2.23
Motor Gasoline 4/
3.67
3.55
3.41
2.39
Jet Fuel 5/
3.06
2.94
2.71
1.77
Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil) 6/
3.89
3.86
3.76
2.79
Residual Fuel Oil
2.95
2.89
2.64
1.53
Distillate Fuel Oil
3.29
3.33
3.27
2.38
Residual Fuel Oil
3.07
2.83
3.04
1.78
Propane
2.06
2.00
2.10
1.84
Motor Gasoline 4/
3.64
3.53
3.38
2.40
Jet Fuel 5/
3.06
2.94
2.71
1.77
Distillate Fuel Oil
3.83
3.83
3.73
2.76
125.78
121.71
116.45
68.04
3.24
3.16
3.06
2.19
Electric Power 7/
Average Prices, All Sectors 8/
Residual Fuel Oil (dollars per barrel)

Average
1/ Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners.
2/ Includes combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems.
3/ E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address col
issues, the percentage of ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forec
4/ Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal, State, and local taxes.
5/ Includes only kerosene type.
6/ Diesel fuel for on-road use. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.
7/ Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status.
8/ Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices in each sector and the corresponding sectoral con
Note: Data for 2012 and 2013 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports.
Sources: 2012 and 2013 Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot
prices: Thomson Reuters. 2012 and 2013 imported crude oil price: EIA,
Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2014/08) (Washington, DC, August 2014).
2012 and 2013 prices for motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and
jet fuel are based on: EIA, Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380(2014/08) (Washington, DC, August 2014).
2012 and 2013 residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector petroleum product
prices are derived from: EIA, Form EIA-782A, "Refiners'/Gas Plant Operators' Monthly Petroleum Product Sales Report."
2012 and 2013 electric power prices based on: EIA, Monthly Energy
Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2014/08) (Washington, DC, August 2014). 2012 and 2013 E85 prices
derived from monthly prices in the Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report. 2012 and
2013 wholesale ethanol prices derived from Bloomberg U.S. average rack price.
Projections: EIA, AEO2015 National Energy Modeling System run ref2015.d021915a.
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
71.07
76.35
76.25
77.69
79.13
81.29
83.64
86.09
88.60
91.13
67.28
70.14
70.06
71.50
72.96
75.10
77.48
79.95
82.48
85.02
63.97
68.13
67.88
69.12
70.50
72.80
75.17
77.55
79.99
82.48
3.79
6.21
6.18
6.19
6.17
6.19
6.16
6.14
6.12
6.11
2.03
2.06
2.08
2.09
2.10
2.11
2.12
2.14
2.15
2.16
2.85
2.91
2.91
2.95
2.99
3.04
3.10
3.16
3.22
3.28
2.77
2.80
2.81
2.85
2.89
2.95
3.01
3.07
3.14
3.20
2.04
2.04
2.05
2.09
2.12
2.17
2.23
2.28
2.34
2.39
85.81
85.64
85.94
87.59
89.19
91.29
93.51
95.78
98.13
100.52
1.70
1.74
1.76
1.78
1.79
1.81
1.82
1.84
1.86
1.87
2.83
2.82
2.83
2.87
2.91
2.97
3.04
3.10
3.17
3.23
1.85
1.91
1.92
1.96
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
2.21
2.27
77.75
80.28
80.59
82.24
83.82
85.93
88.14
90.41
92.76
95.15
2.12
2.15
2.17
2.19
2.19
2.20
2.21
2.23
2.24
2.25
2.44
2.85
2.88
2.86
2.90
2.89
2.76
2.79
2.79
2.77
2.12
2.68
2.63
2.59
2.49
2.53
2.51
2.51
2.49
2.47
2.63
2.70
2.70
2.70
2.74
2.78
2.82
2.86
2.90
2.95
2.08
2.09
2.09
2.14
2.17
2.23
2.28
2.35
2.41
2.47
Reference case
3.02
3.07
3.08
3.12
3.17
3.23
3.31
3.37
3.43
3.49
1.80
1.66
1.67
1.70
1.74
1.80
1.84
1.89
1.94
2.00
75.75
69.92
70.30
71.59
73.27
75.48
77.46
79.21
81.62
83.88
2.52
2.53
2.53
2.57
2.60
2.66
2.72
2.78
2.84
2.90
1.65
1.50
1.51
1.68
1.71
1.77
1.82
1.87
1.93
1.99
69.23
62.86
63.21
70.41
72.01
74.13
76.37
78.64
81.01
83.42
1.86
1.90
1.91
1.92
1.93
1.94
1.95
1.96
1.97
1.99
2.63
2.70
2.70
2.70
2.74
2.78
2.82
2.86
2.90
2.95
2.08
2.09
2.09
2.14
2.17
2.23
2.28
2.35
2.41
2.47
2.96
3.00
3.02
3.06
3.11
3.16
3.24
3.30
3.36
3.43
1.79
1.69
1.71
1.78
1.83
1.88
1.93
1.98
2.04
2.10
75.24
70.97
71.64
74.89
76.70
78.99
81.18
83.20
85.63
88.00
2.40
2.43
2.42
2.43
2.46
2.49
2.53
2.57
2.60
2.65
75.00
81.99
83.41
86.58
89.75
93.78
98.08
102.60
107.30
112.20
71.00
75.32
76.65
79.68
82.75
86.63
90.86
95.29
99.88
104.68
67.52
73.15
74.26
77.03
79.96
83.98
88.15
92.43
96.87
101.55
2.14
2.21
2.27
2.33
2.38
2.44
2.49
2.55
2.60
2.66
3.00
3.13
3.19
3.29
3.39
3.51
3.63
3.76
3.90
4.04
2.92
3.01
3.07
3.18
3.28
3.40
3.53
3.66
3.80
3.94
2.16
2.19
2.24
2.32
2.41
2.51
2.61
2.72
2.83
2.95
1.79
1.87
1.93
1.99
2.04
2.08
2.13
2.19
2.25
2.30
2.98
3.02
3.09
3.20
3.30
3.42
3.57
3.70
3.83
3.98
1.95
2.05
2.10
2.18
2.26
2.36
2.46
2.57
2.67
2.79
2.24
2.31
2.37
2.44
2.49
2.54
2.60
2.66
2.71
2.78
2.57
3.06
3.15
3.19
3.29
3.34
3.24
3.32
3.38
3.41
2.24
2.88
2.87
2.88
2.83
2.92
2.94
2.99
3.01
3.04
2.78
2.90
2.95
3.01
3.10
3.21
3.30
3.41
3.52
3.63
2.19
2.24
2.29
2.38
2.47
2.57
2.68
2.80
2.92
3.05
3.19
3.30
3.37
3.48
3.60
3.72
3.88
4.01
4.15
4.30
1.90
1.79
1.83
1.90
1.98
2.07
2.16
2.25
2.35
2.46
2.66
2.71
2.77
2.86
2.95
3.07
3.19
3.31
3.44
3.57
1.74
1.61
1.65
1.87
1.94
2.04
2.13
2.23
2.34
2.45
1.96
2.04
2.09
2.14
2.19
2.23
2.28
2.34
2.39
2.45
2.78
2.90
2.95
3.01
3.10
3.21
3.30
3.41
3.52
3.63
2.19
2.24
2.29
2.38
2.47
2.57
2.68
2.80
2.92
3.05
3.13
3.23
3.30
3.41
3.52
3.65
3.80
3.93
4.07
4.22
79.41
76.21
78.37
83.46
86.99
91.13
95.20
99.17
103.70
108.34
2.53
2.61
2.65
2.71
2.79
2.88
2.97
3.06
3.15
3.26
generating systems.
newable). To address cold starting
cent is used for this forecast.
orresponding sectoral consumption.
, August 2014).
oduct Sales Report."
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
93.86
96.68
99.58
102.57
105.64
108.81
112.08
115.43
118.71
122.20
87.73
90.55
93.46
96.42
99.48
102.76
106.05
109.50
112.79
116.25
85.03
87.53
90.52
93.29
96.16
99.34
102.63
105.83
108.94
112.10
6.13
6.13
6.12
6.14
6.17
6.05
6.02
5.94
5.92
5.96
2.18
2.19
2.20
2.22
2.23
2.25
2.27
2.29
2.31
2.33
3.35
3.42
3.50
3.57
3.65
3.73
3.81
3.90
3.99
4.08
3.27
3.34
3.41
3.49
3.56
3.64
3.72
3.81
3.90
3.99
2.45
2.52
2.58
2.64
2.71
2.78
2.85
2.92
3.00
3.08
103.06
105.63
108.24
110.97
113.80
116.88
119.90
122.76
126.14
129.40
1.89
1.91
1.93
1.95
1.96
1.99
2.02
2.04
2.07
2.09
3.30
3.37
3.44
3.51
3.58
3.66
3.74
3.83
3.92
4.00
2.33
2.39
2.45
2.51
2.58
2.65
2.72
2.79
2.87
2.95
97.67
100.23
102.82
105.54
108.36
111.42
114.44
117.29
120.65
123.90
2.27
2.28
2.30
2.31
2.32
2.34
2.36
2.38
2.40
2.42
2.79
2.82
2.87
2.93
2.98
2.99
3.04
3.08
3.12
3.16
2.45
2.42
2.41
2.39
2.35
2.37
2.41
2.43
2.46
2.49
3.00
3.04
3.09
3.15
3.20
3.26
3.33
3.40
3.46
3.53
2.55
2.63
2.71
2.79
2.88
2.96
3.05
3.13
3.22
3.31
3.56
3.63
3.70
3.77
3.84
3.92
4.00
4.09
4.17
4.26
2.04
2.11
2.18
2.24
2.30
2.37
2.45
2.51
2.58
2.64
85.88
88.55
91.62
93.96
96.58
99.62
102.87
105.45
108.34
110.90
2.97
3.04
3.12
3.20
3.28
3.36
3.44
3.53
3.62
3.70
2.05
2.11
2.17
2.23
2.30
2.37
2.45
2.51
2.59
2.67
85.99
88.54
91.14
93.86
96.68
99.74
102.76
105.60
108.97
112.22
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.05
2.06
2.09
2.11
2.13
2.16
2.18
3.00
3.04
3.09
3.14
3.20
3.26
3.33
3.39
3.46
3.53
2.55
2.63
2.71
2.79
2.88
2.96
3.05
3.13
3.22
3.31
3.50
3.57
3.64
3.71
3.78
3.86
3.94
4.03
4.12
4.20
2.15
2.21
2.28
2.34
2.40
2.47
2.55
2.61
2.68
2.75
90.29
92.86
95.66
98.13
100.80
103.83
106.96
109.64
112.72
115.57
2.69
2.74
2.79
2.84
2.89
2.96
3.02
3.09
3.16
3.23
117.50
123.06
128.92
135.08
141.61
148.59
155.90
163.58
171.31
179.62
109.82
115.26
121.00
126.99
133.35
140.33
147.52
155.16
162.77
170.87
106.44
111.41
117.20
122.87
128.90
135.66
142.75
149.97
157.22
164.77
2.73
2.79
2.85
2.92
2.99
3.07
3.16
3.25
3.33
3.42
4.20
4.35
4.53
4.71
4.90
5.10
5.31
5.53
5.75
5.99
4.09
4.25
4.42
4.59
4.78
4.97
5.18
5.40
5.62
5.86
3.07
3.20
3.34
3.48
3.63
3.80
3.97
4.14
4.33
4.53
2.37
2.43
2.49
2.56
2.63
2.72
2.81
2.89
2.98
3.08
4.13
4.29
4.45
4.62
4.80
5.00
5.20
5.43
5.65
5.89
2.91
3.04
3.17
3.31
3.46
3.62
3.79
3.96
4.15
4.34
2.84
2.91
2.97
3.04
3.12
3.20
3.29
3.38
3.47
3.56
3.49
3.59
3.72
3.86
3.99
4.08
4.23
4.36
4.50
4.65
3.07
3.08
3.11
3.15
3.15
3.23
3.35
3.44
3.55
3.67
3.75
3.87
4.00
4.14
4.29
4.45
4.63
4.81
4.99
5.18
3.19
3.35
3.51
3.68
3.86
4.04
4.24
4.44
4.65
4.87
4.46
4.62
4.79
4.97
5.15
5.35
5.56
5.79
6.02
6.26
2.56
2.68
2.82
2.95
3.08
3.24
3.41
3.56
3.72
3.88
3.72
3.87
4.04
4.21
4.39
4.59
4.79
5.00
5.22
5.45
2.56
2.68
2.81
2.94
3.09
3.24
3.40
3.56
3.74
3.93
2.51
2.57
2.63
2.70
2.77
2.85
2.94
3.02
3.11
3.20
3.75
3.87
4.00
4.14
4.29
4.45
4.63
4.81
4.99
5.18
3.19
3.35
3.51
3.68
3.86
4.04
4.24
4.44
4.65
4.87
4.38
4.54
4.71
4.89
5.07
5.27
5.48
5.71
5.94
6.18
113.02
118.21
123.86
129.24
135.12
141.79
148.78
155.37
162.67
169.87
3.37
3.49
3.61
3.74
3.88
4.04
4.21
4.38
4.56
4.75
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2040
125.81
129.33
133.18
137.41
141.28
1.0%
119.89
123.53
127.48
131.80
135.67
1.2%
115.55
119.07
123.14
127.05
130.76
1.1%
5.93
5.79
5.70
5.62
5.61
-2.4%
2.35
2.36
2.38
2.41
2.43
0.5%
4.17
4.26
4.37
4.47
4.56
0.7%
4.08
4.17
4.28
4.38
4.47
0.7%
3.16
3.24
3.32
3.47
3.64
0.4%
132.70
136.03
139.64
145.71
152.99
0.4%
2.12
2.14
2.17
2.20
2.24
0.7%
4.10
4.19
4.29
4.39
4.49
0.7%
3.03
3.11
3.19
3.34
3.51
0.6%
127.20
130.53
134.14
140.20
147.46
0.6%
2.44
2.46
2.47
2.50
2.52
0.4%
3.19
3.23
3.28
3.33
3.38
0.3%
2.50
2.53
2.57
2.61
2.64
0.4%
3.60
3.66
3.74
3.83
3.90
0.3%
3.40
3.50
3.62
3.71
3.81
1.0%
2013-
4.35
4.45
4.55
4.65
4.75
0.8%
2.71
2.79
2.87
2.93
3.03
0.2%
113.88
116.99
120.35
123.09
127.41
0.2%
3.80
3.89
4.00
4.09
4.19
0.9%
2.75
2.83
2.92
3.06
3.23
0.5%
115.51
118.83
122.43
128.49
135.74
0.5%
2.20
2.22
2.24
2.27
2.30
0.5%
3.60
3.66
3.74
3.83
3.90
0.4%
3.40
3.50
3.62
3.71
3.81
1.0%
4.30
4.39
4.50
4.60
4.69
0.8%
2.83
2.90
2.98
3.08
3.22
0.4%
118.67
121.86
125.33
129.51
135.10
0.4%
3.30
3.37
3.45
3.54
3.62
0.5%
188.41
197.35
207.20
218.19
229.01
2.8%
179.54
188.51
198.34
209.27
219.93
3.0%
173.05
181.70
191.58
201.74
211.97
2.9%
3.51
3.61
3.70
3.82
3.94
2.3%
6.24
6.50
6.79
7.09
7.40
2.5%
6.11
6.37
6.65
6.95
7.25
2.5%
4.73
4.94
5.17
5.51
5.90
2.2%
3.17
3.27
3.37
3.49
3.62
2.5%
6.13
6.39
6.68
6.98
7.28
2.5%
4.54
4.74
4.97
5.30
5.69
2.4%
3.65
3.75
3.85
3.97
4.09
2.2%
4.78
4.92
5.11
5.28
5.48
2.1%
3.75
3.86
4.01
4.14
4.27
2.2%
5.38
5.59
5.82
6.08
6.32
2.2%
5.10
5.35
5.63
5.90
6.18
2.8%
6.52
6.78
7.08
7.39
7.70
2.6%
4.06
4.25
4.46
4.65
4.92
2.0%
5.68
5.94
6.22
6.50
6.79
2.7%
4.12
4.32
4.54
4.86
5.24
2.3%
3.30
3.39
3.49
3.61
3.73
2.3%
5.38
5.59
5.82
6.08
6.32
2.2%
5.10
5.35
5.63
5.90
6.18
2.8%
6.44
6.70
7.00
7.30
7.61
2.6%
177.72
185.96
194.99
205.65
219.01
2.2%
4.95
5.14
5.37
5.62
5.86
2.3%

Aeotab 12

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ref2015.

12. Petroleum and Other Liquids Prices

Distillate Fuel Oil

Distillate Fuel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil

Distillate Fuel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil

Ethanol Wholesale Price

Crude Oil Prices (2013 dollars per barrel)

Residual Fuel Oil (2013 dollars per barrel)

Residual Fuel Oil (2013 dollars per barrel)

Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil) 6/

Residual Fuel Oil

Distillate Fuel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil

Distillate Fuel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil

Distillate Fuel Oil

Distillate Fuel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil

Distillate Fuel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil (2013 dollars per barrel)

Residual Fuel Oil (2013 dollars per barrel)

Residual Fuel Oil (2013 dollars per barrel)

Prices in Nominal Dollars

Ethanol Wholesale Price

Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil) 6/

Residual Fuel Oil

Distillate Fuel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil

Distillate Fuel Oil

Average Prices, All Sectors 8/

Residual Fuel Oil (dollars per barrel)

newable). To address cold starting

cent is used for this forecast.

orresponding sectoral consumption.

oduct Sales Report."

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