Professional Documents
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a b s t r a c t
Keywords:
Aviation industry scenarios
Wildcard scenarios
Delphi
Scenario technique
Passage
Business aviation
Air cargo
A Delphi panel of aviation experts is used to anticipate probable and wildcard scenarios on the future of
aviation in 2025. According to the experts estimations, the passenger, business aviation, and air cargo
segments will be faced with 27 probable high-impact developments. These include long-haul growth
primarily linked to emerging countries, a number of substitution threats, liberalization and deregulation,
increasing industry vulnerability, niteness of fossil fuels, and emissions trading. The emergence of low-cost
cargo carriers and air cargo substitution by sea transportation were identied as potential surprises. Several
wildcard scenarios were identied such as natural catastrophes, era of virtual communication, and homeproducing fabbing society.
2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The future of the aviation industry is dynamic and poses many
opportunities and threats. The passenger, business and air cargo
industry segments are experiencing strong long-term growth rates,
but are also confronted with short-term volatility and shocks as
a result of an increasingly complex and dynamic environment.
Further liberalization and deregulation, intensifying competition,
changing customer demands and resource scarcity are just a few of
the factors contributing to a more turbulent and uncertain future for
aviation. Scenario planning is a way of addressing uncertainty to do
long-term planning and support decisions.
Here scenarios are developed to examine potential long-term
developments in the aviation industry with a view to supporting
aviation managers in developing robust long-range future strategies
and to challenge strategies that are already in place. To consider
what is the most probable scenario for the future of aviation 40
projections are developed portraying potential developments in the
social, technological, economic and political environment.
2. Prior work
While there are numerous studies dealing mainly with quantitative scenarios on the development of aviation fuels and emissions,
and other individual aviation topics, there have only been a few
scenario studies on the potential development of the aviation
industry as a whole, based on the development of multiple external
factors, have been identied (Mason, and Alamdari, 2007). Table 1
E-mail address: marco.linz@ebs.edu.
0969-6997/$ e see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2012.01.006
29
Table 1
Prior analysis.
Author(s) (year)
Type of
scenarios
Focus
Planning
horizon
Methodology
Research details
Explorative
External factors
2010/2011
Genius judgment
HHL (2010)
explorative
external factors
2015
Scenario matrix
ICE (2010)
Explorative
External factors
2040
Scenario matrix
Explorative
2015
Delphi
CONSAVE (2006)
Explorative
2050
Modeling, simulation
Explorative
External factors
2020
Explorative
External Factors
2004
Genius judgment,
workshops
Genius judgment
Table 2
Sources of potential future projections.
1
2
3
66
70
80
30
Table 3
Projections on the future of aviation 2025.
No. Future projection
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
that many comments were provided at the end of the survey can be
seen as an indicator of low fatigue.
3.4. Scenario development
A cluster analysis was conducted in order to identify structures
and similarities in the Delphi data. In order to identify possible
clusters, the data was processed using the furthest neighbor
(i.e. complete linkage) method with simple Euclidean dissimilarity
measure.
The variables considered in the cluster analyses were the mean
values of expected probability (EP) and impact (I) of each projection.
Numerous authors have argued that clustering along these two
dimensions is reasonable in order to derive appropriate actions and
strategies (see e.g. Akkermans et al., 2003; Hder, 2002; Ogden et al.,
2005; Rikkonen et al., 2006). Furthermore, the values of probability
of occurrence and impact were transformed by standardizing variables into Z-scores as they were on different scales. The description
of the most probable scenario is based on the experts qualitative
arguments in support of their estimations during the Delphi rounds.
Many scenario studies exclude discontinuities and wildcard
scenarios (Grossmann, 2007). Such wildcard events or developments
have a low probability of occurrence, but a high impact on the
industry. Their inclusion helps to increase the ability to adapt to
surprises and to test the robustness of strategies and decisions (Mi
cic,
2007). Based on a coding and further analysis of the experts
comments, nine wildcards were extracted, of which three will be
presented later.
As recommended by van der Heijden (2005), a nal expert check
of the probable and wildcard scenarios was conducted to ensure
consistency and compliance with quality criteria. Additionally,
further desk research was conducted to support the plausibility and
consistency of the scenarios.
4. Research results
4.1. Results of Delphi survey
Table 4 summarizes the Delphi statistics with regard to the
development of consensus after the two Delphi rounds. An analysis of
the estimated probabilities revealed a decrease in the standard
deviations (SD) of most of the projections after round two. In line with
the rationale behind the Delphi method, after receiving feedback
from round one on the statistical group estimation and the arguments
given by the experts in support of their estimation, round two showed
a greater convergence among the expert panels opinions and an
increased consensus. The strongest convergence was measured for
projection 5 (integrators). Its standard deviation decreased by 5%.
Projection 66 (virtual communication) showed a slight increase in
standard deviation of 0.7%. Consensus was measured after two Delphi
rounds for 25 of the 40 projections. Consensus was already achieved
in the rst round for 9 of the 18 projections.
4.2. Strategic mapping and the probable future of aviation
The visualization of the clustered Delphi results in the form of
a scatterplot on a strategic future map allows a logical clustering of
the aviation projections examined. Each number represents the
corresponding projection listed in Tables 3 and 4.
Fig. 1 provides interesting insights. It can be observed that most
of the projections have an average impact of three or gretaer, as
well as an average estimated probability of 50% or more. In general,
this demonstrates the relevance of the projections developed in the
rst phase of the research project. The results indicate that the
a priori formulation and selection of projections was accurate (von
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32
Table 4
Delphi statistics.
Thesis no. and short title
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Acceptance of self-servicing
Easy air transportation demand
Low-cost business travel
Demand for unbundled products
Demand for integrated products
Societal acceptance of business aviation
Lower value of short-haul business aviation
Emerging markets
Long-haul growth > short-haul growth
Non-aviation business of airports
LCC growth > full-service carrier growth
Leisure travelers
Value-added growth > standard cargo growth
CEP growth > value-added growth
BUPs
Business aviation growth > general
aviation growth
Business aviation to remote areas
Consolidation trend
Decreasing yields
System partnerships
Jet pools and fractional ownership
Dedicated business aviation airports
LCC and regional feeder services
Dedicated cargo airports
Very light jets and air taxis
Medical air transportation
Emergency freight
LCC in long-haul markets
Low-cost cargo carriers
Emission rights
Scarcity of fossil fuels
Vulnerability
Capacity constraints
Liberalization and deregulation
Integrators
Virtual communication
Substitution by land transport
Substitution by sea transport
Smaller long-haul aircraft
Satellite-based ATC
Impact (I)
Round 2 (n 57)
IQR
Mean
SD
IQR
Mean
SD
Mean change
SD change
Mean
10
18.8
30
30
20
35
20
10
35
10
30
50
20
25
27.5
47.5
81.3
79.7
63.3
61.8
66.8
41.1
42.1
83.3
67.9
72.9
68.6
42.1
73.4
74.7
64.5
53.6
11.7
8.5
19.1
19.3
19.6
21.2
17.6
9.8
18.2
10.8
15.4
23.3
18.5
17.9
15.9
23.6
10
18.8
30
30
20
35
20
10
25
10
17.5
38.4
20
20
22.5
47.5
81.7
79.6
64
61.4
66.1
41.1
40.7
83.9
69.6
76.1
69.7
37.8
73.2
64
65
53.6
11.2
8.4
18.1
19.4
19.3
21.2
16.4
8.9
16.7
10.8
13.8
20.8
18.3
16.4
14.7
23.6
0.5
0.1
0.7
0.3
0.8
0
1.4
0.6
1.6
3.2
1.2
4.3
0.3
10.8
0.5
0
0.5
0.1
1
0.1
0.3
0
1.1
0.9
1.5
0
1.6
2.5
0.2
1.6
1.2
0
3.9
3.5
3.7
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.2
4
3.5
3.2
3.7
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
3.2
37.5
15
40
40
37.5
40
28.8
62.5
30
45
55
20
35
40
40
30
50
40
40
30
40
47.5
47.5
40
46.4
79.8
61
58
66.4
62.5
49.8
50.6
48.8
46.4
46.4
39.9
35.3
64.5
69.1
62.5
62.8
60.1
65.8
62.4
61.3
45.3
62.4
57.5
21.2
9.7
19.5
17.8
20.7
22.1
17.3
28.3
18.2
24.6
25.5
12
19.3
18.7
19.9
22.3
25.2
21.1
23.9
17.6
22.9
24
23.3
19.9
37.5
15
40
20
37.5
40
22.5
60
30
45
55
18.8
35
30
30
30
40
35
30
30
30
47.5
47.5
30
46.4
80.3
60.6
58.4
66.4
62.5
49
47.2
45.8
46.4
46.4
39.3
34.2
73.1
71.8
63.3
63.6
60.2
65.5
62.4
63.1
44
62.1
57.1
21.2
9.2
19.1
15.7
20.7
22.1
16.7
27.5
15.7
24.6
25.5
11.6
18
16.7
17.6
21.3
24.4
18.8
18.9
18.3
20.7
23
23.3
19.3
0
0.5
0.4
0.4
0
0
0.8
3.4
3
0
0
0.5
1.1
8.6
2.6
0.7
0.8
0.1
0.3
62.4
1.8
1.3
0.3
0.4
0
0.6
0.4
2.1
0
0
0.6
0.8
2.6
0
0
-0.4
1.3
2.1
2.3
1
0.8
2.4
5
0.7
2.2
1
0
0.6
2.5
4.1
4.4
4
3.3
3.6
3.1
3.2
2.8
2.6
2.6
3.3
3.9
3.8
4.3
3.7
3.8
4
4.2
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.5
3.6
Note: Bold font marks theses where nal consensus was achieved.
33
34
Table 5
Wildcard scenarios describing eventualities and discontinuities.
Wildcard scenario name
Content in brief
Costs of the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajkull and the corresponding ash cloud:
$200 million per day in lost revenues and costs to re-route aircraft and to take care of stranded
passengers and stranded aircraft
1500 active volcanoes worldwide
50e70 volcanic eruptions per year
Several comets and asteroids are on collision course with planet earth
Danger from ash clouds resulting from comet or asteroid impacts affecting air transportation
10% to 35% of business travel could be substituted by virtual meetings
The sustainability discussion and potential cost and time savings favor the usage of virtual meetings
New advanced forms of virtual meetings are continuously developed reducing the disadvantages
of impersonal contact
The so-called generation of Digital Natives is used to live and act in virtual communities and
does not differentiate between personal and impersonal contact in the same way former generations do
Direct fabrication of objects from digital models by using additive-fabrication-technologies, such as
3D printing and laser sintering
A personal fabricator could be an affordable device for the production (fabrication) of goods in ones own home
Strong increase in bulk transport of fabbing raw materials
Decrease in air cargo afne freight like fashion items and electronic devices possible
35
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