Int. Rev. Appl. Sci. Eng.

6 (2015) 1, 6369
DOI: 10.1556/1848.2015.6.1.9

EFFECTS OF MARCROSYNOPTIC WEATHER TYPES ON

DEVELOPMENT OF THERMAL EXCESS IN SUBURBAN
AREAS OF DEBRECEN*
S. SZEGEDI a, I. LZR, T. TTH
Department of Meteorology, Debrecen University, Debrecen
a
E-mail: szegedi.sandor@science.unideb.hu
Synoptic conditions have a remarkable impact on urban climate. Anticyclone synoptic conditions with clear skies and calm weather
are advantageous for the development of the thermal access in the settlements compared to their environment called Urban Heat
Island (UHI). There are numerous studies on the spatial and temporal features of the phenomenon. Much less attention is paid to
the synoptic conditions of UHI development. The aim of the present paper is to reveal the changes in the frequencies of synoptic conditions advantageous and disadvantageous for development of UHI on the basis of a 50-year-long time series. Increasing
frequencies of synoptic conditions advantageous for UHI development can contribute to decrease of heating and increase of air
conditioning energy demand in cities.
Keywords: CarpatClim, change-point analysis, trend analysis, urban heat island

1. Introduction
Urban Heat Island is a well-documented meso- scale
atmospheric phenomenon according to Orlanskis
classification (Orlanski, 1975; Oke, 1973). UHI examinations are not homogeneous in time and space; results are not comparable due to different methods and
techniques in many cases. Most studies cover short
periods of time and deal with detecting the phenomenon itself or trace its relationships to other parameters (meteorological elements, static factors). London
is among the few exceptions, where connections between urban climate and urbanization processes were
analyzed on a long time series (Eliasson, 1996; Unger et al., 2000; Loughner et al., 2012). There are not
any long UHI measurement datasets available for the
Carpathian basin, thus the effects of urbanization on
increase of UHI intensities cannot be traced by empiric examinations, so most studies focus on monitoring, statistic and/or numeric modeling of the phenomenon in our region. (Bottyn and Unger, 2003; Bottyn
et al., 2005; Chen et al., 2011; Ginnaros et al., 2013).
The thermal difference between the settlement
center and its unbuilt environment is called UHI inten-

sity. Potential maximal UHI intensities are determined

by morphology (size, structure and surface geometry)
of settlements, actual intensities in a given point of time
are formed by dynamic meteorological factors embedded into synoptic conditions (Unger, 1996; Unger et
al., 2004; Szegedi et al., 2013). Strong heat islands can
develop under anticyclone conditions with clear skies
and calm weather without precipitation, while cyclone
conditions allow the development of weak heat islands
only or even prevent their formation.
The aim of our examinations is to reveal the changes in the frequencies of synoptic conditions advantageous and disadvantageous for development of UHI
on the basis of a 50-year-long time series for the years,
their seasons and months. According to the hypothesis
of the study there are increasing frequencies of synoptic conditions advantageous for UHI development,
which can contribute to the decrease of heating and increase of air conditioning energy demand in cities.

2. Study area and methods

The CarpatClim 50-year-long climatological time series of the Carpathian basin were used for the anal-

* Paper presented at the DENZERO International Conference, 910 October 2014, Debrecen, Hungary
2015 Akadmiai Kiad, Budapest

ISSN 2062-0810/$20.00

S. SZEGEDI et al.

ysis. It consists of diurnal datasets homogenized by

the wide spread Mish/Mash method (Lakatos, et al.,
2013). Datasets for grid point 2571 which is the closest one to the city of Debrecen in east Hungary were
used. Time series provide abundant information on
the air temperatures, precipitation, air pressure, wind
speeds and cloudiness.
The three most important meteorological elements from the aspect of the development of UHI are
wind speed, cloudiness and precipitation (Lee and
Baik, 2010). Critical values of these factors where development of the heat island becomes impossible were
determined. The thresholds are 3 m/s of wind speed,
5 octas of cloudiness and 2 mm of amount of precipitation on the basis of the literature and our previous
results (Landsberg, 1981; Oke, 1987; Szegedi and
Kircsi, 2003; Szegedi et al., 2012) for Debrecen (population: 204,000). Advantageous, moderately advantageous, moderately disadvantageous and disadvantageous categories were established.
Our examinations were focused on the following
issues:
1) Is there a decrease or increase in the frequency of
synoptic conditions advantageous for the development of the UHI?
2) Is there a trend in the change of the frequency of
advantageous conditions?
3) Are there any change-points in the time series,
which divide them into relatively homogeneous
sections significantly different from each other?
Changes in the frequencies of meteorological
conditions of UHI development were approached by
trend analysis (method of least squares). Correlations
were calculated between elements of the time series
and their temporal sequential numbers in order to reveal trends. Parametric and non-parametric correlations were applied, as well. Parametric correlation requires normal distribution of the probability variable,
while it is not a premise in the case of non-parametric
correlations. Reality of increasing trends was judged
on the basis of required correlation coefficients for
given numbers of elements presented in a table of Yule
and Kendall (1950).
Beyond trend analysis change-points were traced
in the time series of different meteorological conditions of UHI development. Student t-test was used for
this task according to the literature (Yule and Kendall,
1950; Sneyers, 1990). The analysis is based on the
hypothesis that differences of the averages of the periods divided by change-points are higher than those
of periods divided by other points. t values were
used for comparison of partial averages. It must be
noted that t-test can be carried out only if probability variables have a normal distribution. Distribution
of annual averages does not differ significantly from
64

normal distribution on the basis of the Kolmogorov

Smirnov test.
Examinations have traced linear trends and
change-points dividing them in 50-year-long climatological time series from the aspect of frequencies
of advantageous conditions for UHI development. To
decide which method describes the changes better, in
other words, changes are gradual or they take place by
leaps and bounds, the method of sum of squared differences was used (Ward and Wendell, 1980; Wayne,
2000).
For this reason xti values of the trend line of the
time series for years i = 1, 2, ..., n were determined
first; then they were extracted from the xi values of
each year (Eq. (1)). The Str value gained by adding the
squared differences describes the goodness of fit of the
trend line: lower values refer to better fit.
Str =

( x x
i

ti

(1)

i =1

In the next step average values ( x1 and x2 ) of the

two sections divided by the most emphasized change
point in the time series (Eq. (2)) between k and k + 1
were determined by calculating sums of squared differences of values of each year taken from appropriate
partial averages:
Stp =

( xl x1 )
l =1

(x

x2 ) ,
2

(2)

m = k +1

where xl are values of the first section divided by the

change point for years l = 1, 2 k, xm are values of
the second section for years m = k + 1, k + 2, ..., n.
Lower values of squared differences refer to a better fit. For comparison of goodness of fit ratio Eq. (3)
of the two squared difference value was used:
g = Str / Stp .

(3)

If g < 1, linear trend fits better, if g > 1, averages

divided by the change point fit better.

3. Results and discussion

Frequencies of occurrence of condition categories of
UHI development were the following during the studied period:
Advantageous conditions (Category 1) 37.35%,
when there were not any obstructive factors.
Maximal development of UHI is possible in such
cases.
Moderately advantageous conditions (Category 2) 38.46%, when there is one obstructive factor
for UHI formation. Medium or low intensity heat
islands can develop under such circumstances.
Int. Rev. Appl. Sci. Eng. 6, 2015

EFFECTS OF M ARCROSYNOPTIC WEATHER TYPES ON DEVELOPMENT OF THERMAL EXCESS

Fig. 1. Frequencies of occurrence of condition categories of UHI development in the region of Debrecen in the period between
1961 and 2010

Moderately disadvantageous conditions (Category 3) 20.88%, when there are two obstructive
factors, which makes possible the development
of weak heat islands only, or UHI cannot form.
Disadvantageous conditions (Category 4) 3.32%,
when there are three obstructive factors, which
prevent the development of the thermal excess
in the settlements.

It seemed reasonable to unify Categories 3 and

4 since the frequency of the latter one was very low
and their effect on UHI development was proved to be
quite similar.
Linear trend analysis has revealed a significant
increasing trend in the time series of advantageous
conditions. The value of Pearson correlation coefficient has exceeded 0.27 at a significance level of
95% (Fig. 1). Non-parametric Spearman correlation

Fig. 2. Anomalies of the frequencies of advantageous conditions given in % for the period between 1961 and 2010
Int. Rev. Appl. Sci. Eng. 6, 2015

65

S. SZEGEDI et al.

coefficients (0.28) were determined as well, which

revealed significant trends also. The linear model applied showed an increase of the frequency of advantageous conditions by 4% during the period between
1961 and 2010. There was no significant decrease of
frequencies in the moderately advantageous category, while frequencies of moderately disadvantageous
and disadvantageous categories showed significant
decreasing trends, which means a decrease of frequencies by 2.2% on the basis of the linear equation
applied.
Anomalies of the frequencies of advantageous
conditions (Category 1) were determined for each year
from the average of the studied period.
It is clearly visible in Fig. 2 that frequencies of
advantageous conditions are under the average between 1964 and 1980, while the period between 1981
and 2009 is ruled by positive anomalies. Negative
anomalies are emphasized in 1970 (15%) and 1979
(10%). A weaker negative anomaly appears in 2010
(5.3%), which can be explained by the extremely
high amount of precipitation in that year. Positive
anomalies of advantageous conditions are characteristic after 1981 with maxima over 10% in 1992 and
2000.
Increase of the frequencies of advantageous conditions was analyzed for the seasons as well. Months
of the winter, spring, summer and autumn were han-

dled together. Spring and summer produced significant

increasing trends of frequencies of advantageous conditions. The increase is stronger in the summer reaching 5.6%, while it reached 3.8% in the spring. Winter
and autumn have not shown significant increase of frequencies of advantageous conditions, which is marked
by low correlation coefficients (winter R = 0.252,
summer R = 0.12).
Frequencies of occurrence of advantageous conditions were analyzed for the months of years. Average minimum of frequencies of occurrence of advantageous conditions occurred in December with 19.3%
while the maximum occurred in August with 59.9%.
The absolute maximum occurred in August of 1992
with 93.5%. The absolute minima occurred in December 1970 and November of 1978 with 0%.
There are ignorable and remarkable differences
either in the monthly courses of frequencies of advantageous conditions. Frequencies of advantageous conditions fluctuate between 19 and 28% in winter months
with lowest anomalies in January (9%). Differences
in frequencies of advantageous conditions are low in
spring months with a minimum of 4% only. Highest
differences in frequencies of advantageous conditions
occur in the summer with 17%. August is outstanding among the months, since highest frequencies and
highest anomalies were detected in that month. Highest frequencies and anomalies in the 50-year-long time

Table 1. Trend and change-point values of frequencies of advantageous conditions in the period between
1961 and 2010 for the years, seasons and months
Period

Trend analysis

Changing point test

Increasing/
decreasing (%)

Annual

0.35**

1981/82

Autumn

0.25

Spring

0.39**

1989/90

Summer

0.36**

1980/81

Winter

0.12

1970, 1981/82

January

0.00

February

0.28*

1971/72

14

March

0.14

1971

April

0.33**

1990

11

May

0.23

1991

June

0.32**

1989

10

July

0.22

1982

10

August

0.13

1991

September

0.21

1994

11

October

0.25

1970/71, 1997

November

0.33**

1981/82

11

December

0.13

Significance level: *p < 0.5, **p < 0.1, +: increasing trend, o: stagnating trend, : decreasing trend

66

Int. Rev. Appl. Sci. Eng. 6, 2015

EFFECTS OF M ARCROSYNOPTIC WEATHER TYPES ON DEVELOPMENT OF THERMAL EXCESS

series occurred in September from the months of the

autumn. Highest standard deviations occurred in that
month also.
Trends of frequencies of advantageous conditions
in the months for Debrecen were examined in the next
step.
Monthly trends are not parallel with seasonal
ones in every case. There is not any increasing trend in
the case of the winter, but February is characterized by
an increasing trend at a level of 95%. However, analysis could not reveal increasing trends in the frequency
of advantageous conditions in December and January
as it can be seen in Table 1.
Frequencies have showed a strong increasing
trend in the case of spring. March and May is characterized by stagnation, significant increase can be detected in April only. June has produced a significant
increase only from the summer months. Surprisingly
there is stagnation in the case of July and August. November has become more advantageous for UHI development, while there is stagnation in the case of the
other two months of the autumn.
It must be noted that values of Spearman correlation coefficients support significances revealed by
Pearson r values in the case of analysis of monthly
and seasonal time series.

Beyond trend analysis change-point analysis was

carried out on the time series. A significant changepoint was found by the Student t-test at the turning
of 1981/82 in the annual time series of advantageous
conditions. Differences in partial averages separated by the change-point show an increase over 5%.
Change-point analyses extended to seasonal frequencies have detected significant change-points in each
time series with the exception of autumn within the
period between 1970 and 1990. Seasonal frequencies
have increased after the change-point. Strongest increase was detected in the case of the summer (8%)
and spring (7%), while a lower increase was found in
the winter (4%), which is close to the annual average.
Change-points were detected in the time series of
monthly average frequencies of advantageous conditions by the Student t-test as well. Exceptions are January and February only. Differences in partial averages separated by the change-point have showed rapid
positive increases in most cases with values between 5
and 14%. However, there were negative differences in
September and October. Monthly change-point analysis has revealed a temporal pattern similar to annual
ones.
Results presented above prove that there were
significant changes in the frequencies of conditions

Fig. 3. Trend and change-point analysis of frequencies of occurrence of conditions advantageous for UHI development in the
period between 1961 and 2010
Int. Rev. Appl. Sci. Eng. 6, 2015

67

S. SZEGEDI et al.

advantageous for UHI development in the region of

Debrecen during the studied period (Fig. 3). However
there are two possible interpretations of those results:
changes can be gradual or they can occur by leaps
and bound either. To decide which interpretation is
true comparison of the squared differences was carried out.
Determination of g values described in the experimental was carried out for annual frequencies of
conditions advantageous for UHI development. Values higher than 1 ( g = 1.21) were found, which supports the discrete character of the process.
Analysis of seasonal averages has showed similar results, although g values were lower than in the
case of annual data. There was not any increase in
frequencies of conditions advantageous for UHI development in the case of the autumn. Change point
analysis has found significant increase of frequencies
only, which means that increase took place by leaps
and bounds. Highest g values (1.18) were found in the
summer datasets, which refers to periodic increase.
Spring has a character similar to the summer from this
aspect.
Trends and change points were detected in the
case of the months as well with g values between 1.01
and 1.2, which support periodic increase again.

4. Conclusions
Advantageous and moderately advantageous conditions for UHI development were found in more
than 75%, while unfavorable conditions were
found in less than 25% of all cases.
Linear trend analysis has revealed a significant increasing trend in the time series of advantageous
conditions, especially in spring and summer.
A significant change-point was found by Student
t-test at the turning of 1981/82 in the annual time
series of advantageous conditions.
Detected tendencies have a negative effect: they
contribute to the increase of air conditioning energy demand in the summer and do not decrease
the energy demand of heating in the winter significantly.
Acknowledgements
The work/publication is supported by the TMOP4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV-2012-0041 project.
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