Professional Documents
Culture Documents
AWSITR=791006
Revised
THE USE OF
AND FORECASTING
DECEMBER
1979
AIR WEATHER
SERVICE
62225-5008
Rovlsod
March
1990
REVIEW
AND
APPROVAL
STATEMENT
II
Revkted
March 1990
Report DJte:
December
3.
4.
Title:
7,
Performing
Organization
8.
Performing
Organization
Report Number:
11.
Supplementary
Report
No[es:
Reprinted
}IQ AWS/XT,
AWSnR-79/(X)6
in March
12,
Dis(ribu[ion/Avtiilabiiity
13,
Abstract:
Slatement:
Describes
(Revised)
1990 m incorpx+tc
SCONAFB, IL 62225-5(X)X
the Iollowing
Approved
AugusI
techniqu~$s
and provides
Novcmlxr
1987 revision
th:~l
instruclionq
011 il~
usc
lnslruclton$
include how to plol data on the (iiagram and how to usc the dakr to (ieterminc
and a(mosphcric
stabi lily,
in November
pressure allitu(lc
currently
1hc March
on (he Satellite
Subject
Tcrrns:
disco
phcnonmna
curves.
displwed
METF.OROL(WI,
WEAT}l
ER, WEATHER
:Iuimphcric
15:
17.
Sccurily
Classtlictrhun
ol Rt>jw)rt Lnciassi(icd
IX.
Sccurily
CIassl(ication
of thisPage: ( Inclasw!ic(i
][),
Security Clusslfication
20,
Limil~tion
01 Abstract:
Form
instructions
for plotting
(he Aulornatcci
Wet!lhcr
st{mns.
and wsing
uxhniqucs
Distrihulion
Syslem
Skew T programs.
Standard
0[ Atwuxl:
Uncixsllicd
(11.
298
..
Ill
ANAi. }SIS.
FORECASIl N(~, WI;4ltil.R
s[ahillly II I(ICI. 111~1~(lrt)l{~~lc:iiwund Ing,
suihilit>,
Revised
March
1990
.-
PREFACE
This rcpm
([ JrigitTiIlly
issued (m I %plcmbcr
AWSM
IY52 as
(o
an Air Wealher
which
(November 1987 wrd March 1990) arc primarily cmwerncd with ncw skrbilily indices. This
im orp(~ratcs al! r(cvisions and crra~:t (() {ia[c. was rwccssary [o replenish stock and fill outstanding
had to do wilt)
updating
ohsolctc
rclcrcncc:s,
but ins[ruc(i(ms
l~)r
plotting and using IIW pressure altitude curve were also a(klcd, as paragraph 3.7, A major change was the addi(ion
(in Chap[cr 5) of several new sktbili(y indlccs, ahmg wilh lhcir descriptions and formulas.
For Ihc Ia[(cr, AWS
thanks Bill Henry of [he National
provided mos[ ol [hc ma{crial.
Tht. 1990 rcvisi(m
Wca[hcr
Scrvicc Training
indicts
(enter,
currently
whose pamphlet
displayed
(k
on (he Satcllilc
Datu Handling
Syslcm
Thi~ revision
[or dclcrmining
Thrcal value.
This printing
(March
August
rcfcrcnccs
in Chaplcr
7 seem obsolete,
in subscqucrrt revisions.
Revleed
content
s
Chapter
Page
I-Introduction
.
.
.
.
of tho Skew
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
Lines
Thickness Scales . . . . . .
The 1000-mb Height Nomogram
Standard Atmosphere Data. .
Wind Scale
. . . . . . . .
Contrail- Formation Curves .
Analysis Blocks
. . . . . .
Chap/or
3-Plotting
Sounding
+7 Chart
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Data
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on tho
Skew-l
Legend
.
Construction
Chapter
4-Determination
C)uantitios
Use of
of
From
Introduction . . . . . .
Mixing Ratio . . . . . .
Saturation Mixing Ratio.
Relative Humidity . . . .
Vapor Pressure
. . ..
Saturation Vapor Pressure
the
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General . . . . . . . . .
Number of Soundings Plotted
Chotce of Color . . . . . .
Plotting Individual Elements
Plotting Wind Data . . . .
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Pressure
1-1
1-1
1-2
2-1
2-2
2-4
2-5
2-6
Chart
Altitude
3-1
3-1
...3-2
Curve
3-3
lJnroported
Meteorological
Pi8ttod
Soundings
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4-1
4-4
Mnrch
1990
Page
5Determination
of
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Chart
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4-5
4-5
4-5
4-5
4-6
4-8
4-9
4-10
..
4-11
411
4-11
4-12
4-12
4-13
4-13
4-14
4-15
4-16
4-19
Stability
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5-1
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5-2
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5-3
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5-3
5-5
5-6
5-7
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5-7
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5-9
5-10
5-10
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5-10
5-13
5-13
5-15
5-15
5- lfj
5-17
5-17
5- Ii
5-17
5- 17
5- 18
5- 20
WAsed
Mmrch 1990
Page
Stability-Instability
Criterta for Large Verticai
5-20
Displacements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5-21
Latent Instability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5-23
Validity of Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Procedure for Finding Whether Any Latent Instability
5-23
Is Present
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..O
The Value of the Distinction Between Pseud* and Real5-24
Latent Instability
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5-25
Utility of Latent-Instability
Analysis in General . . . . . .
5-26
Potential InstabUlty
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5-28
Effects of Lifting Potentially Unstable and Stable Layers . .
5-28
Does the Whole Layer Become Unstable ? . . . . . . . . .
5-31
Superadtabatic Lapse Rates from Layer Lifting . . , . . .
5-31
Effects of Divergence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5-31
How Much Lift Is Needed for Release of Instability?
. . . .
5-31
Lifting of Potentially-Stable
Layers
. . . . . . . . . . .
5-31
Processes Which Change the Potential Instability
. . . . .
5-31
Relation Between Potential and Latent Instability
. . . . .
;:;;
Slice Method
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The Stability Indexes ................................................................................. . .........
Index ......................................................................................... 535
The Showalkr
The Lifled
The Modified
Likd
The Fawbush-Miller
The K Index
The KO
in&x
..................................................................................... 5-38
LifmdIndex...................................................................................... 5-38
.................................................................................................... 5-38
Index .................................................................................................5.38
Index.......................................................................................!.5-39
........................................................................................................5.39
The Thompson
Tmal Tola[s
The Dynamic
Choptor
Introduction
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..~.
Classification of Stable Layers . . . . , . . . .
Synoptic Dtsconttnutties
. , . . . . . . . . . .
The Unexplained Discontinuities
, , . , , , ,
Radiation Inversions and Layers . . . . . . , .
Subsidence Inversions and Layers . . . . . . .
Ikrbulence Inversions and Layers
. . . , . . .
Convection Inversions.
. . . . . . . . , . . ,
Frontal Surfaces and Zones . . . , . . . . . .
Temperature Characteristics
of Frontal Zones
.
Humidity Characteristics
of Frontal Zones , . .
Wind Variations Through Frontal Zones
. . . .
Thermal-Wind Indications of Frontal Zones . . .
Wind Distribution aa an Indicator of the Dynamical
actertstlcs
of Cold Fronts. . . , . . . , . .
Tropopauses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
WMO Tropopause Definition . . . . . . ,. . . .
Character of the Tropopause . . . , . . . . . .
vii
..o
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6-1
6-1
6-2
6-2
6-5
6-5
6-7
6-0
6-9
6-0
6-13
6-14
6-14
,
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.
6-14
6-18
6-19
6-20
Chop/r
7-Analysis
of Clouds
with
Aid
of
RAOBS
8-Forecasting
Adiabatic
Uses
Charts
of
RAOBS
General . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Severe Convective Storms . . . . .
Aircraft Icing . . . . . . . . . .
Contrails
. . . . . . . . . . . .
Anomalous Propagation and Refractive
Fog Forecasting
. . . . . . . . .
Density Altitude
. . . . . . . . .
Cirrus Cloud
. . . . . . . . . .
Forecasting
Maximum Temperature
Clouds
. . . . . . . . . . . . .
Plottod
.
.
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.
7-6
7-7
7-7
7-7
7-7
7-8
7-8
7-9
7-20
7-22
7-22
7-23
7-23
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8-1
8-1
8-1
8-1
8-1
8-1
888-2
8-2
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9-1
A-1
B-1
viii
on
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. .
Index
. . .
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. .
7-1
7-2
7-2
7-2
7-4
.-
FIGURES
.
Figure la
Coordinate
Figure lb
Figure I c
Coordinate
Coordinate
Figure Id
Coordinate
Figure 2
!sobarson
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Satumlion
Figure 6
Saturation
Figure 7
Thickness
Figure 8
Auxiliary
Figure. 9
Analysis
Figure 9a
Example of Plotting
Figure 10
Figure
II
...................................................................................................................2.2
...............................................................................................................2.3
....................................................................................................2.8
Figure 12
Dclcrmination
Figure 13
Dctcrminalion
Figure
14
(e) .....................................................................................4.fl
Figure 15
Determination
Figure 16
Comparison
Figure 17
De(crminalion
of the Thickness
Figure 18
Dchxmination
Figure 19
Proccdurc
Bclwccn
Tempcra[ure
Potential Tcmpcra[urc
for Loeating
and Virtual
(8W) ,.,.,.,4-7
Temperature
the Convection
Condcnsalion
Tcmperalurc,
Condcnsalion
Level ......................................................................................................4.l4
Figure 20
Dctcrminalion
of tie Mixing
Condensation
Frgurc 2 I
Determination of the Posilive and Negative Areas on a Sounding Duc to the Healing of a Surface
Parcel ............................. .......................................................................................................................J.l7
Figure 22
Figure 23
Determination of the Posilive and Negutive Areas on a !Rrunding Duc 10 the Lifling ol a Sudacc
Parccl .............................. ............................................................................................................ ..........~-1~
SMhility Classillcations ...........................................................................................................................5.5
Figure 24
Sample Sounding
Figure 25
Schematic
for Stahilit}
Illustration
Analysis
with Time,...,.,...,.,..,...,.,.........
.......................................................................... .
Figure 26
TfTc Successive Changes of tie Temperauxc Lapse Rate Duc (o Solar Hca[inf (II Ll,: (;round
with Time ([) ......................... ................................................................................................. ... ...
Figure 21
The Effcclof
Figure 28
Lapse-RatcChanges
Cwrscd by Liflingor
Figure 29
Effect of Divergence
and Vertical
Shearing Motion
Molion
Eflcc( ol Divergence
Figure 3 I
Thrcc Typcsof
tmd Verlical
Figure 32
The Determination
Figure 33
Ex;implc
Figure l-f
IZ.xamplc of P()[en[ially
M(llion
..
Equilibrium
of the Latent-lnstahili[y
fora Lllttng
:lnd Ah\(lllllll\
.,,.,.,,,,... ,, ,.,.,.5-22
.. ... .
.......................
~I\c of Iw ml
IJ C[lr\,\
. . .....5-19
Rising
..........................5-I()
Process .,.,,..,...,,,,...,.,.,..,..,,,,,.,.
.... $-l?
i~)r
F)I,Icn(MI\
. ..$-?4
f-?{)
,.,. 5.2?
\_ :()
Figure Mh
Figure 36
~ J)
~ ~(1
Figure 37
((m~pu[a[ilm
i.1~
01 [he Stl(lw:il[cr
S[abill[)
ln{ic\
.,
ix
Figure 38
Computation
of [he Fawbush-MilIcr
Figure 38a
Conwxlivc
Figure 39
Gust polcnlia!
Stability
Graph .........................................................................................................5.4l
[o Cape Hiiucms,
15(H)Z,
1231) .............................................................................................................6.3
Figure 40
lscntropic Vcrlical Cross-Section from Bismarck 10 Cape Hatteras, 15WZ,29 March 1956
(Danielson[23]).......................................................................................................................................6.4
Figure 4 I
Nocturnal
Radiation
Inversion
Subsidence (Tr~de-Wind)
Figurc43
Subsidence Inversion
Figure 44
Figure 45
Figure 46
Formation of aTurbulencc
inversion ......................................................................................................6.8
Saturation of a Layer by Turbulurl
Mixing ............................................................. ...............................6-8
6-I()
Frontal Inversion .... . . ................. . .. ......... . ... . . . .. .............. .... .. . . . . ...... .. . ....... ... ....
Figure 47
Elfccl
Figure 47
Vertical
Figure 48
Tempemlure
Figure 49a
Vertical
Figure 49h
Figure 50
Figure 51
Inhomogcnei[y
on an Otherwise
Sounding Through
Moli(m
of Atmopsphcric
Molion
Inversion
Puerlo Rico.......................................................6.6
Figure 42
an Anafronl
...................................................... .............................6-1 I
125] ............. . ......... .. .,...........................6-12
with a Katafronl
Figure 52
Figure 53
Frontal-Zone
Figure 54
Figure 55
Figure S6
Vertical Disiribulions61
Wind Direction in the Vicinity of Frontal Sufaccs ........ ..............................6-l7
Distribution of Wind and TemperMurc Through a Frontal Zone ..........................................................6.l7
Hodograph of Observed and Thermal Winds for Sounding of Figure 55 .............................................6-lx
Figure 57
Tropopause
Figure 58u
Figure 58b
Figure 59
Figure 60
Vertical
[ndicaiions
with an Anafronl
Cross-Section
Vicinity
from
Determinations
of Fron~l
19 March
Cloud as a Function
Figure 61
Ditfcrcncc 13etwccn Frost Point ~ind Dcw Poirrl as a Function of the Dcw Point ...................................7-8
Figure 62:1 Sounding in Marked Warm Front, Two (loud Lirycrs Indic:itc(l ..........................................................7.l()
Figure 62b
Figure 62c
Cold Frrm with Cloud Layer Thinner than Indicated by S()unding ............................................. .......7-I I
Middle-Cloud
Layer wilh No Precipitation Reaching the Surface .......................................................7.l2
Figure 62d
Layer (lnu(is
Figure 62c
in Humidity
Trace ........................7-1 3
Figure 62[
Sounding
ligurc 6?g
Similar
Figure 62h
Flgurc (~2i
Double Laycrof Cloud, Topof Upper Ltryer No( lndicatcd by Sounding ............................................7.l7
Sounding Through Scattered Thin-Layered
Middle Clouds lndicatcd by Variatdc Humidity ., ...........7-18
Showing
Pcrccn[ Probability
Flgurc 64
l,~iiv~>~
Clouds,
1956 ...........................................7.2l
TABLES
Table 1
Table 2
Table 3
St--Character
Table 4
!$wuclure of Precipitation
Table 5
of the Troppause
Frorws, April-September,
............................................................................................................6.22
Areas Associated
with April-September
Distribution
of s(ruc(urc), 30
xi
Chapter
INTRODUCTION
This manual
is issued in one volume. A planned second
volume to cover the use of atmospheric soundings in forecasting proved impracticable to
compile. Also, the general use of computerproduced analysis and prognostic charts has
greatly decreased the direct application of
soundings {n forecasting. However, Chapter 8
is added to note some uses of soundings in
techniques for forecasting certain phenomena. The manual opens with a description
of the DOD Skew T, Log P Diagram (chapters 1 and 2) and instructions
for plotting
soundings on it (chapter 3). The procedures
for evaluating, on the diagram, certain basic
quantities from the sounding are then outlined in chapter 4. Up to this point, the treatment is designed for guidance of b o t h
observers and forecasters.
The rest of the
manual is a text for forecasters
on the
principles and procedures of analyzing raobs
on the Skew T, Log P Diagram for stability,
fronts, inversions, and clouds. This material
is not a review of the conventional standard
textbook approach, but a selection and evaluation of topics which recent experience and
empirical studies indicate are of direct application to practical
forecasting
unde r
present
operating
conditions
in ordinary
detachments. In chapter 8 various empirical
forecasting procedures involving use of the
soundings plotted on Skew T, Log P Diagrams are mentioned with respect to clouds,
fog, precipitation,
showers,
temperature,
hail, icing, contrails, and turbulence.
1.1.
Organization
of the Manuai,
In the United States, the Stiive Diagram came to be known as The Pseudo-Adiabatic
Diagram.
Actually, all of the diagrams mentioned are pseudo-adiabatic
diagrams, in that they are
derived by assuming that the latent heat of condensation is used to heat the air parcel, and that
condensed moisture falls out immediately (see pars. 2.4 and 5.3).
2The coordinate system of the Skew T, Log P Diagram was first suggested by N. Herlofson
[30],a Norwegian meteorologist,
11
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Different
Diagram
Versions
!
.-
~.\i ?.
10
\l
+k+r
20
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30
of ttn ErmgrmL
Skew-T Chart - is printed by the Aeronautical Chart and Information Center (ACIC),
and can be requisitioned
by USAF activities
in accordance
with instructions
in the DOD
Catalog of Weathev Plotting Charts published
by ACIC. The Skew-T Chart is available in
five
versions:
a. A full- scale
chart
for general
use
(DOD WPC 9- 16), printed on a sheet 28 x 30
inches. This version now includes the Appleman contrail
forecasting
curves (see AWSM
105- 100) which were on the formerly
issued
WPC 9- 16B.
chart
(DOD
WPC
b. A small-scale
9-16- 1), photographically
reduced from the
full-scale
chart, andprinteci ona sheet 17x 15
Log
I \
from the vertical to increase the angle between isotherms and adiabats. On the Skew T,
Log P Diagram, both the isotherms
and
isobars are straight lines. The desired relationship between energy and diagram area
is also essentially fulfilled, so that thickness
scales are easily prepared for any given
layer. In addition, a convenient color scheme
1.3.
,;,
Diagram.
12
Fi~ro
1 b.
Cmrdnata
SyBtm
several of the
ol tho Tqhlgrarn.
auxiliary
scales and overprints,
and is intended for use where these scales are not
required
and display or handling problems
make a smaller
sheet essential.
Overlays designed for use on the full-scale
version must
be reduced by one-third
to adapt them to this
small-scale
chart.
(DOD WPC
c. A mod if i ed version
9-16A), printed on a sheet 20.5 x 15.5 inches,
This is a cut-out from the full-scale
chart,
enlarged
(but not photographically),
and extending only from 1050 to 400 mb, and from
-20~ to +50C at the base. The auxiliary
scales on the left and top are omitted, and of
the overprinted
material only the virtual tem-
100
,
\
*?>B
100
4-+1--%4+
300 .,
. ,..
] \
XT
ISOBARS
\
200
300
A..,
400
\
\.
L.
\.
!
\,
500
/<,
[\,
..
\
:~,, ?, -.
\\
700
L {
, ? \,\\..
$,
, \
:;<,
* <,\
:(
,\
\ ,
,!
1050
-70
\\
L-
1I .
-40
-60
Fi~r.
Ic.
Coardmto
\!
&L_LJ+
System
e. A version
of WPC 9-16, identified as
DOD WPC 9-16-2,
with a refractivity
overprint. This is an aid in computing estimates
of anomalous
radar propagation.
The basis
and use of the overprint
is described
in
AWS TR 169 and in AWS TR 183.
1-4
dabatic-}
Dlagmm.
~,,
\\ ,i
30
800
900
i! .:
1000
1050
)
\/
0,
\,\o,\
y ,
\p
-1
W.
0.;
h
l.:
Flguro
/f?fo\
Id. Caordmto
.J
,o&
Systun
1-5
of th
Skew T,
Log P Diagmm.
Chapter
DESCRIPTION
OF THE
SKEW-T
CHART
isotherms.
2.4.
bats
Saturation
(illustrated
Saturation adiaFigure
5) are the
Adiabats.
in
150
Iw
&J
300
300
OO
400.
50
ISOBARS
Fmo
HORIZONTAL
MOWN
mb
LINES
4W
,9.0
~oq
Ijmmd
t
4r
MS
n-
ma
500
500
600
600
700
700
700
/
500
800
>
OO
9ca
1000
K)oo
Fhw.
1000
-1
1050
2. lstir8 m thoS&ow-Tclgtt.
intersection
with the 100(1-mb isobar.
The
saturation
adiabats
tend to become parallel
to the dry adiabats at low values of moisture,
temperature,
and pressure.
They extend only
to the 200-mb isobar, because humidity observations
are not routinely obtainable from
higher altitudes
with present standard equipment.
Mixing-Ratio
L ines.
The
2.5. Saturation
saturation
mixing- ratio llnes (see Figure
6) are the slightly-curved,
dashed, green lines
sloping from the lower left to upper right.
They are labeled in <rams j]erkilograrn;
i.e.,
22
. . . . . .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
-4s
-40
-3i -30-zi
..
-20
.,5
-,0
,0
Flguro
20
29
30
3. Isdiorms
35
cm @n Skew-l
Chin.
2-3
Fi~ro
4. Dry Adahts
Chrt.
m tho Sk*w-l
constructed
locally
for any
(see Pp. 109-116 of [ 331 ).
4For meteorological
purposes,
geopotential
feet and meters can be considered
as geometric
feet
explained
in the Smithsonian
Meor meters with very little error.
(The exact relationship
is
the resulting
errors
for all
teorological
Tables, Sixth Revised Edition [ 601, which tabulates
heights and latitudes. )
24
It
--
ta
co
lb
F@ra
5. Saturdm
15%.
The position of this line is also
illustrated in Figure 8. The heights of pressure surfaces in this standard atmosphere up
to 100 mb are indicated on the vertical scale
(labeled ICAO STANDARD ATMOSPHERE
ALTITUDE) printed on the right side of the
chart. This scale is graduated in geo@ential
meters and feet (see Footnote 4).The heights
of standard-pressure
s u r f a c es are also
printed at the left margin of the chart beneath
each pressure value (1000, 950, 900,... et,.,
to 10 rob).
2.8.
2-5
---
200
/
//
/
/
//
/1
//
//
//
,
,/
//
//
//
/
//
.)
/
/1
//
/
~-?l
/,
/
/
/
/
//
0/
0:1
?, ~
/
10
Fl~o
//
6. $aWr*lcm
,/
//
/
//
/
/ // ,/ ,/
?
/
/
MIxhg-Rotlo
Llnos
//
11// // ,/11+/
//
,,
//
m ttw Skew-T
,//~/;
//bll ///
,/ /
LL4i!ll
U=m.
2.9, Wind Scale. Three vertical staffs labeled WIND SCALE are printed along the right
side of the chart for use in plotting upperwind data. Solid circles
on the staffs indicate heights for which wind data are usually
reported;
the open circles
on the staffs are
for wind data for mandatory
pressure
surfaces.
separating
the categories
for forecasting
probability
or absence
of contrails
from jet
aircraft.
The solid set of lines is for use
between
the 500- and 100-mb
surfaces,
and the dashed set for use between the 100and 40-mb surfaces.
The application
of these
Aws/TR-81/ool
.
is explained
in
curves
Curves.
Printings
2.10. Contra ii-Formation
following the May 1959 edition of the fullscale version (DOD WPC 9-16) of the Skew-T
Chart are overprinted
in thin black lines
@th two sets of four lines each. take]] from
AWS/TR-81/001.
These are labeled with the
theoretical
critical relative-humidity
values
2.11. Amlysis
Blocks. TO facilitate
and
standardize
entry of sounding analyses, a
form as shown in Figure 9 has been printed
on the right-hand side of DOD WPC 9-16,
26
70
,50/Wo
22
t 25
120
)0/23
03
80
7$
so
,
21
21
24
,30
23
,33
,45
140
z?
22
,s0
22
l=
I=
,
3TW>
*W*,
87
IS
32
4243
33
.4,9
ID
34
35
4a
4742*,
19
22
37
>*
\
THICKNESS
SCALES
(BLACK)
7001WX~
23
160
24
(65
FIWO
I 70
7. TNckno8s
$~loc
2-i
m ho
Skew-T
C1m%
+-
ICAO
STANOARO
LAPSE
ATMOSPHERE
RATE
.
)!
.0
,,
,0
Zo .,
.
,0
00
28
SKR~ T . L04
P ANALYSIS
I
I,I&a
TIMC
TV*K
ouHOAnv
VT .
FT.
VT
TVPE
OUMOARV
PT
TV-C
Fmccxl
Ms
L8VCL(SI
INVERSIONS
L.
F.C.
SIGNIFICANT
WINO
MAx.
MIN.
L=v
CLS
OF
SMEAR
STABILITY
INOII
INORX
TO
TO
TO
To
To
To
CLOUOS
TVPC
AMOUNT
A8KS
To-s
ICINO
TYPE
Scvcnllv
OUNOAnl
CS
CONTRAILS
PKRsl$Yt
Mcc
HKleml
TURBULENCE
owaRc
HKl@FIT(Sl
MAK
WINO
HAIL
91ZC
SUSIS
TCMPI!RATURES
UAX.
M1P4.
CUMULUS
CLOUO
DIWIPATION
Or
FORUATION
LOW
LCV=L
AT
TCMP -
IN VCRSIOM
TIMC_
AT
TIMc_
REMARKS
+-YFlguro
9.
Amlysis
Block
m the Skew-T
Clmrt.
2-9
Chapter
PLOTTING
SOUNDING
DATA
3.1.
&merai. The data used for plotting
thermodynamic diagrams such as the Skew-T
Chart are obtained from a variety of sources,
including radiosondes,
dropsondes, aircraft
soundings, rocketsondes, and upper-wind reports of pibals or rawins. The plotter should
refer
to the appropriate
FMH, WBAN, or
WMO publications for decoding instructions
applicable to the type of report in question.
The plotting instructions given in this chapter
pertain to all six versions of the Skew-T
Chart.
3.2.
ON
THE SKEW-T
CHART
drawn
around
each
dot
on
curves (note
that, for clarity, the points on temperature
curves in the figures in this manual have
been indicated by large solid dots). This circle
will aid in locating the points when drawing the
connecting lines; and the circles further aid
in identifying significant points on the curves.
If other moisture curves are plotted (for example, the wet-bulb curve) small triangles
or other symbols should be drawn around the
dots on these curves to distinguish them
from the dew-point curve.
the
temperature
and
dew-point
J-1
as is used for
32
3.7 Construction
Altitude
and
Curve.
uwd K) help
clcnwnls
Use
of
the
The pressure-alti[ude
lilrcc:ismrs
dc[crminc
Pressure-
hcighls
STEP
(P-A) curve is
O( various
m[m
:]ccura[cly.
mc(crs,
[or atmf)y)hcric
soundings
you
will
have
line rcprcscn(s
10 intcrpol;]tc.
I(K)
Enclose
each
STEP
SIEP 1-- Al(mg
((mlinuc
10
1,(K)()-mcllr
side
[hc
01
iw)lhcnn
incrcrn(>nls
(hc
S1tCP
in
[or example,
(onlinuc
un[ii
(Iiagrilln
Iiilyling
4--As
5--Dc[crminc
prcfsurc
ICVCI
[he
ii{ which
l--llslrlg
the
hcigh( \fillllC$C[lC()(IC(I in (I1C
rnw ins(m(lc t~t]v.)rv;lli(m bullc[in, (m(cr the hcigh[ 01c;~ch
m~tncl;l([wy Ievc1 im [hc righ-h:m(t
side (d (Iw di:l~riiln
SII?P 6--Using
STF~P
10
(he
hollolll
lick
or
nwirk
rcmcmbcr,
lhn[ hcixhl.
IC(l
.A
. .
- ..
.s00---
--- ---.
[hc plo[[cd
{If
inlcrcs(
lhc
C(lgC
rClill}ClC(l
01
IIIC
un[il
in SICp 4.
i[ in[crwcts
sc;ilc
r<;ul
lhC
on
VillllC
F,il~h r(lalxlcd
in SIcp 5.
now cquilts 100 m(lcrs.
~onvcrt
s~iilc 011[h~ right
si(lc
the
isohypsic
(Iiilgr:llll,
iln(l
il s(r:ligh[cdgc,
With
the
(){
lhc
01 lhC
iw)thcrm.
[ni)(lc
..
-..
Icalurc
i[ lies,
Up Ihc
nc,Kl
connect
mcl(rs
[(~
(Iii] grilm,
+-.. .
. .
,: ,-
/.
k.
.x+ AL
!?
,,
{
. ..-.~..-.-o,fy...
.-..
1...... . .
{,:.
..{
.70q
+.
7
_-<
Ann._
,,
z.
1
m
,,~
,0
0,
0.
.-.. .7:/.
.-p..
-.
,.. ~;;-....
.
.,
. , ; ,
,. ...,
0 %
-i
;:
DATE
,.
U..C r,
,,,.
A,: ..:%,.-+..,*..
o
L..
*Q
,,,
.r
r.,,
.,,
,.-,
.J
,0,0
:(
,.,, .,..
r w,
,.. :x<.,:.
Form:
CHART
CURRENT
DOD-WPC
AS OF MARCt{
9-16- I
1978
Revised
August
1991
.-
Chapter
DETERMINATION
OF UNREPORTED
4.3.
sounding
is 2.0
Mixing
Ratio.
The saturation
Procedure:
To find the saturation
mixing
ratio for a given pressure
on the plotted
sounding, read the value, either directly or
of the saturation mixingby interpolation,
ratio line that crosses the T curve at that
pressure.
On the sounding shown in Figure
10, T at 700 mb is -5C; and the saturation
mixing-ratio
value at 700 mb and - 5C is
3.8 g/kg. Hence, the saturation mixing ratio
of the air at the 700-mb level on this sounding
is 3.8 g/kg.
in parts per
Procedure:
computed
saturation
(q), where q .
on this
humidity
Saturation
Definition:
The specific
level
gikg.
SOUNDINGS
at the 700-mb
METEOROLOGICAL
PLOTTED
4.1. Introduction.
In accordance
with paragraph 3.4, two curves are usually plotted
equation:
Mu/(Mu
+ Md),
41
/
/
T,
.0
f,.
-+-
/
,
Fl~o
10. $a~l~
SouwU~
RH = 100(w/w~)
Therefore
700-mb
the
relative
humidity
Chwti.
m tlw Skew-T
Step 1. From
at the
the Td curve
53%.
Alternate Procedure:
There is also a procedure, shown in Figure 11 to find graphically
Step 2. From
parallel
42
this intersection,
to the isotherms.
draw a line
.-
/~
//
-300
/
/
/
o
\ \
\ \
-500
---
---(M6
me)
\
\
-700
7oo
.0
0
,9
-1000
rnb
ISOBARS
1000
Fl~o
11. A ltormW
Proco*ro
for
Flndng
Rabtlva
I+snldlty
(RH).
of the atmospheric
vapor contributes
pressure.
Roceduve:
From
pressure
43
pressure
to the total
the
Td curve
on the sounding
atmospheric
at the given
(for example,
at 700
%\
\
T4>N
ISOBARS
mb
600.
?oo-
.0
0
,*
2.0
Fi~re
12.
i
DotormlnatlaIof
/
4
1000
ttw Vapor
Prossuro
(e)andtho
Soturatlon
Vapor
Pressure
(e~).
4.6. Saturation
Vapor Pressure.
vapor pressure
Definition:
The saturation
(e-) is the partial pressure
which water vapor
>
would c o n t r i bu t e to the total atmospheric
pressure
if the air were saturated.
khe theoretical
thispartlcular
isobar
4-4
is explained
on pages
60-63 of[ 33
1.
4.9.Wet-Bulb Temperature.
Definition:
The wet-bulb temperature
Procedure:
Referring a gain
to Figure 12,
pressure
from the T curve at the given
(700 rob), follow the isotherms to the 622-rob
isobar. The value of the saturation mixingratio line, read by interpolation if necessary,
through this point at 622 mb gives the saturation vapor pressure in millibars at the given
pressure.
Procedwe9;
Figure 14 illustrates the method
of finding the wet-bulb temperature at a given
pressure
on the sounding. The steps are:
Step 1. From the Td curve at the given pressure, in this case 700 mb, draw a line
upward along a saturation mixing-ratio
line.
(6) iS
the temperature
that a sample of air would
have if it were brought dry-adiabatically
to a
pressure of 1000 mb.
Procdure:
Figure 13.
given pressure.
an
isotherm
temperature.
constant
of
(Tw)
potential
Step 2, From the T curve at the given pressure (700 rob), draw a line upward
along a dry adiabat until it intersects
the line drawn in Step 1. (The height
is the lifting
of this intersection
condensation level, as described in
par. 4.20.)
Step 3. From this point of intersection, follow
a saturation
adiabat back to the given
pressure,
700 mb. The isotherm value
at this pressure
is equal to the wetbulb temperature.
In the example
shown
in Figure
14,
~w(700) = -*T*
4.10.
Wet-Bulb
Definition:
ture ( @J
Xn the example
shown
= 24C or 297%.
e (700)
in Figure
Potential
Temperature.
13,
4-5
$*C
\ yd&424c
\
\
\
\
100
\
..
.fJ
\
\
/
\
k%,
~+
\*!
,+
so
/
loo
ISOOARS mb
.O
#
~o/
/
m
l!!\\
\
.-
00
Fl~o
13.
Dctormlnatlm
of tha P@@ntlal
Procedure:
Find the wet-bulb temperature
as
in paragraph
4.9 and shown in Figure 14. The
value of the saturation
adiabat through this
wet-bulb
temperature
point is equal to the
wet-bulb potential temperature.
l~oraturo
In the
e W(700)
4.11.
example
= 9.5c1!
Equivalent
Definition:
Alternate
Procedure:
Another procedure
is
also illustrated
in Figure 14. Find the wetbulb temperature
as in paragraph
4.9. From
the Tw point, follow the saturation
adiabat to
shown
in Figure
14,
temperature
(TE )
Temperature.
The equivalent
is the temperature
a sample of air would have
if all its moisture
were condensed out by a
pseudo-adiabatic
process
(i. e., with the latent
heat of condensation
being used to heat the
(e).
it is customary
46
to express
#?*
#
\./
AA!ii
&
c?
?/
4?/
v/
/
T,,
/
ht
SIE
700
,0
//
/
o
STEP 2
ISOOARS mb
S7=EP .
000
I
Fl~
14. O@ormlrmtlmoftFm
Wot-Dulb
T~oratwo
termed
the adiabatic
equivalent
temperature, and should not be confused with the
isobaric equivalent temperature
which is
always slightly lower.
Procedure:
of finding
P-lal
T~.rawr.
I@Wl.
4.20.)
Step 1. From the Td curve at the given pressure, in this case 700 mb (Point P),
draw a line upward along a saturation
mixing- ratio line. Also, from the T
47
-.
FI~ro
Step
15. Detormlnatim
oftha E qdmlent
T~emture
(TE) and t~
E @ valent Pdemial
Tarrpraturo
( eE ).
Procedure.
Find the equivalent temperature
for the given pressure,
in this case 700 mb,
In the
E
example
- +o.5c.
(700)
4.12.
Equivalent
shown
Potential
in Figure
as described
in paragraph
4.11, and as shown
in Figure 15. From the TF point, follow the
15,
dry adia
isotherm
equivalent
Temperature.
glven pressure
@E can
~.lso
be
readdircctly
through
the
IooO
Fl~ro
In the
E(700)
//,
example
16. C~rl.m
shown
/,
/ /
/.
/1
Dotwoen
in Figure
r,.
ttm Obsorvsd-T~oraturo
15,
/A1
I!<
and Vlmal-Tonperaturo
1000
Curves.
= 30C or 303%,
(Tv) of
lower moisture
values; i.e., above 500 mb,
the T and Tv curves are almost identical.
Procedure:
At a given pressure
on a sounding, the difference
(in C) between the
observed
and virtual
temperatures
(i. e.,
T) is approximately equal to 1/6 of the
T-
For detailed
work, a more accurate
determimtion
of the virtual temperature
c a n be
made by using the following formula (seep. 63
of this equation):
of [ 33 1for the derivation
numerical
value of the saturation
mixingratio line passing through the Td curve at
TV = T(l + 0.6w)
4 9
4.14.
Thickness
of a Layer.
surfaces.
Procedure:
Figure 17 illustrates the procedure for finding the thickness of a given
layer:
Step
1. Construct
Tv
curve
The thickness
of the layer between any two
pressure
surfaces
is directly
proportional
to the mean virtual temperature
lof the layer.
This
can be seen from the hypsometric
equation,
upon which all thickness
computations are based, and which may be written
in the form:
for the
Thickness
2. Draw a straight
line through
the
given layer, so that the areas confined
curve and the straight
by the
Tv
line balance to the right and
of the line. The straight
line
but it is
any orientation,
balance the areas when they
so choose an orientation
that
the areas.
the left of
can have
easiest
to
are small,
minimizes
The label
thickness
the layer
for which that scale is primarily
intended.
each scale is also applicable
in
However,
determining
the thickness
of certain
other
namely,
la ye rs
for which the
layers,
numerical
ratio of the boundary-pressure
values is equal to the ratio indicated by the
label of the printed scale. For example, the
scale for the 500- to 300-mb layer (labeled
500/300) can also be used to determine the
between
Tv
curves
where
d
T
4?V
l.n
TV
of the layer
(in %);
g is the gravity
and
P2
() 2
are
Rd is the
the boundary
gas constant
constant;
pressures
1
of the
for layers
of low moisture
content,
the dif-
and Tv becomes more important when warm, moist air is involved. If thick-
ness calculations for the summer soundings at Miami, Fla., for instance, were based on T
values, rather than Tv values, thickness errors in a moist 1000- to 700- mb layer of as much
as 100 feet could result.
4lo
pressure
surface in geopotential
mean sea level (MSL).
feet above
is defined as
the altitude at which a given pressure is
found in a standard atmospherdz, When an
aircraft
altimeter
is set at 29.92 inches
(101 3 rob), its height-scale reading indicates
the pressure altitude in the particular standard atmosphere
upon which its calibration
is based. (Most U.S. aircraft altimeters are
based on the old NACA standard atmosphere,
which does not differ significantly from the
ICAO standard atmosphere except above the
tropopause.)
Procedure:
To find the pressure altitude at
a given pressure
on a sounding, read the
value, in feet or meters as desired, of the
ICAO STANDARD ATMOSPHERE ALTITUDE
scale (at the right side of the chart) at that
pressure.
The exact heights of pressures
divisible by 50 mb are given in geopotential
feet (in parentheses)
and in geopotential
meters
[ in brackets ] below the pressuresurface values printed along the left border
of the chart. For example, the pressurealtitude height for 500 mb is 18,289 feet;
for 700 mb it is 9,882 feet.
Density
Altitude. Density altitude is
defined as the altitude in a standard atmosphere at which a given density is found. This
parameter
is frequently used in meteorological and operational problems related to
aircraft
performance,
airport design, etc.
4.17.
411
(see
AW.S-TR-232
and
U. S. Standa ~d
Computation
of the density altitude can
be easily accomplished on an edition of the
full- scale Skew- T Chart which has a density- altitude nomogram overprinted
on it.
This edition and instructions for its use are
available
in A W% TR 105-101. (See para.
1. 3f)
Level.
4.18. Convection Condensation
The convection condensation
level
Definition:
(CCL) is the height to which a parcel of air,
if heated sufficiently
from below, will rise
adiabatically
until it is just saturated
(condensation
starts).
In the commonest
case,
it is the height of the base of cumuliform
clouds
which are or would be produced
by
thermal convection solely from surface heating.
m
.
IA
*
.
Pvocedure:
To determine
the CCL on a
plotted sounding, proceed
upward along the
saturation
mixing-ratio
line. t h r ou g h the
surface dew-point temperature
until this line
intersects
the T curve on the sounding. The
CCL is at the height of this intersection.
Figure 19 illustrates
this procedure.
w
a
*
L
Id
w
x
When there
is much variation
in moisture
content
in the layers near the surface,
an
average
moisture
value of the lower layer
may be used in place of the surface-parcel
moisture
value in computing
the CCL (see
for examples,
paras. 5.24.1 through 5.24.3).
4.19.
Convection
The
De firzition:
L
Figure
17.
Determimtim
(Tn)
must be reached
convection
clouds
surface-air
layer.
0
0
0
of ttw Thickness
is
Procedure:
sounding,
From the
sounding,
adiabat to
temperature
mb Layer.
412
Temperature.
c o n v e c 1.i o n temperature
the surface
temperature
that
to start the formation
of
by solar
heating
of the
Determine
the CCL on the plotted
as described
in paragraph
4.18.
CCL point on lhe T curve of the
proceed
downward along the dry
the surface-pressure
isobar. The
this intersection
is the
read
at
00
(r)
1000 moo
w=
Ao-4&
Iz&
(*C)
TcMPCRATURC
&
,
- 10*
&
.,&
-1o
-W*
-SW
-w
-40
-w
-e
-
40*
/
/
,,~.
Wo
.1019
%*F
100
1~
:
,,0.
400
.1020
,#
>75- .
1s0
*O
,.
Wo
Mm
GIVEN:
5 ,low
00
162s
,m ..mm
TEMPERATURE
660tFwT.1040
MO 000
{ MSL
~oo
moo
,W
= 1025
MBS
104s
1000-MB
955
Soo
s 40
PRESSURE
!I
HEIOHT
660
FT MSL
low
w 040
f
l-)
4d
*I
woo
moo
moo
-i
f
HWO 18. Dotwmlmtla! ol th
convection
temperature
cedure is illustrated
(Tc)
HoI*
ol tho 1000-mb
Surtim
Abm
(or Below]
. This pre-
in Figure 19.
level
(LCL) is the height at which a parcel of air
becomes saturated
when it is lifted dryadiabatically.
The LCL for a surface parcel
is always found at or below the CCL; note
that when the lapse rate is, or once it becomes, dry adiabatic from the surface to the
cloud base, the LCL and CCL are identical,
4.21. Mixing
Condensation
Level.
-%
Flguro
19. Procsduro
a~tha
Lifting
tnb
for Locntlngti
Candmmtim
1806AR8
Cmvoctim
Cmdmwtlm
Lovol,
ttm Cmvoction
Tqoraturo,
Lowl.
Procedure:
The determination
of the MCL
first requires an estimate or forecast of
the height of the top of the layer to be mixed.
There is no known objective way to determine
this height. However, a subjective estimate
based on local experience which considers
such things as the expected lower-level wind
speeds,
the terrain
r o u g h n ess,
and the
original
sounding through the lower layers,
will usually suffice (see par. 6.7 for a discussion of this).
layer. If there is no
twc) lines
within the
mixed air is too dry
the mixing process.
becomes
rounding
colder
air.
(more
dense)
Procedure:
The LFC for a given parcel which
becomes saturated by lifling is located at the
height where the saturation
adiabat through
the initial wet-bulb temperature
of the parcel
intersects
the sounding temperature
curve
at a higher level. If the parcel is to be heated
to make it rise, then the wet-bulb temperature corresponding
to the c onv e c t ion temperature
must be used (see par. 4.9 for
414
700
\
//
7
e)
graphical
ture),
MCL
FIWro
SO. Dotormlratlm
determination
/ Y//////
01 tti
Mixing
.-/
Cmdxnxutlm
Lovd
on a Samdlng.
of wet-bulb tempera-
4-15
Procedure
for the Surface -Parcel -Heating
Case: The plotted
sounding is analyzed
to
find the CCL according
to procedure
of paragraph 4.18. A saturation
adiabat is then constructed
upwards
from
the CCL to well
beyond
the point where
it intersects
the
sounding again the equilibrium
level (EL - see
par.
4.24); and a dry adiabat
is constructed
through the CCL down to its intersection
with the surface-pressure
isobar.
The negative
and positive
areas
are then
labelled
and colored
or shaded aS in the
example in Figure 21. (Note that many soundings have no lower negative
area, as when
the lower layers are already
adiabatic,
but
only a positive
area;
and also that many
soundings
show only a deep negative area
without any positive
area as when the CCL
is extremely
high. ) The areas determined
by
the above procedure
are indicative
of conditions under the assumption
that the surface
temperature
does not rise after the CCL has
been reached
- if the surface
temperature
then
it is readily seen
does rise further
ProceduYe
foy the Case l$~here an UpperLevel Parcel is Lifted:
In the event that the
analyst
wishes
to determine
the positive
and negative areas that will result when an
air parcel
initially at some upper level is
lifted by a mechanism
such as frontal overrunning, upper-level
convergence,
etc., the
procedure
is exactly analogous to that used
4.24.
Equilibrium
Level.
Definition:
The equilibrium
level (EL) is the
height where the temperature
of a buoyantly
rising
parcel
again becomes
equal to the
temperature
of the environment.
Procedure:
Determine
the positive area for
the parcel of interest according
to the proper
procedure
outlined
in paragraph
4.23. The
EL is then found at the top of the positive
area where the T curve and the saturation
adiabat through the LFC again intersect.
The
locatlon of an EL is shown in both Figures
21 and 22.
416
-500
e
?00
050
NEGATIVE
-.
ISOBARS
1000
Flguro
Parcel.
mb
21. Dotormlmtlm
of tha Pocltlvo
4-17
on a $omdng
Duo to h
Hoodngoi
a Wrfac@
s00
---
. .
\
\\
,%0
/
---
/1
850
/.
0
/
/1
/
/
*O
/
Flgurc
22. Dotorminatlcm
of tho
Pfxltiw
and Nqptlvo
Parcml.
418
A roas cm a Somdlng
Du8 to h
Lifting
ala
SurkIca
4.25.
Chort.
or
Energy
Determimtions
on the Skew-T
When positive
or negative areas have
0.0280
sample
per gram
consideration.
joules,
under
of air
in the
b. One square
inch on the DOD WC
9-16
chart
equals
1.808 x 106 ergs,
or
0.1808 joules, per gram of air in the sampie.
419
Chapter
DETERMINATION
5.1.
The
Parcel
Theory
as a Basis
OF
for
Stability
STABILITY
Nearly
all the procedures
routinely
used to evaluate and analyze the stability of the atmosphere
are manipulations
of the so-called
parcel
method, which is a particular
way
of applying certain
physical
laws of hydrostatics
and thermodynamics.
It is simply a
theory
which assumes
an over-simplified
model of the behavior of the atmosphere.
We
do not yet know just how closely this model
corresponds
to reality.
Only recently
have
serious
attempts
been made to analyze the
physics of clouds and atmospheric
convection
in more r ea 1is t i c and quantitative
detail.
These studies
provide some useful
corrections
and modifications
to parcel-method
procedures,
as will be shown in Chapter 8
of this manual.
The theory of the parcelmethod will now be described
briefly and
qualitatively
along with general
indications
of its unrealistic
assumptions
and their effects on the practical
utility of the method.
Determining
The atmosphere
surrounding
the parcel
is
said to be stable if the displaced parcel tends
to return
to its original position; unstable if
the displaced
parcel
tends to move farther
away from its original position; and in neut?-al
equilibrium
when the displaced parcel has the
same density as its surroundings.
According
to the parcel theory, the behavior
of a parcel
which, once it is saturated,
becomes
w a r m e r than its environment
through the release of the latent heat of condensation,
is as follows. The parcel ascends
under acceleration
from the positive buoyancy
force.
If the saturated
parcel
continues
to
rise through an atmosphere
in which the lapse
rate exceeds
the saturation
adiabatic,
the
speed of the ascent increases.
This acceleration persists
until the height is reached where
the saturation-adiabatic
path of the parcel
crosses
the temperature
sounding; i.e., where
the parcel temperature
becomes equal :3 the
environment
temperature.
This height has
been defined as the equilibrium
level (EL)
in paragraph
4.24. The rising parcel at this
point has its maximum
momentum.
It now
passes
above the EL, becomes
colder than
the environment
(negative buoyancy) and is
decelerated
in the uppe? negative area, until
it comes to rest at someunspecified
distance
above the EL (overshooting).
The acceleration and speed of the parcel at any point can
The temperature
of a minute parcel of air is
assumed to change adiabatically
as the parcel.
is displaced a small distance vertically from
its original position. If the parcel is unsaturated, its virtual temperature
(see pars. 4.13
and 5.8) is assumed
to change at the dryadiabatic
rate; if the parcel is saturated,
the
change will occur at the saturation-adiabatic
rate. In addition, it is assumed that the moving
parcel neither affects, nor is affected by, the
atmosphere
through which it moves; i.e., the
parcel
does not mix with nor disturb the
surrounding
air.
be computed
from the temperature
of the parcel over the environment
buoyancy
for mula but it usually
very unrealistic
result.
a. Lateral
mixing of the convection-thermal or cumulus
cloud with its environment
(dynamic
entrainment),
which reduces the
water content
and buoyancy
at least of
the outer parts
of the convection
column.
b. Vertical mixing, within the convectionthermal
or cloud cell itself and with the
environment
at the top; in the cumulus cloud
this is manifested
by downdrafts,
holes,
etc., and causes redistribution
of condensed
water and departures
from the saturationadiabatic lapse rate locally and for the cloud
as a whole - these effects may be more important than those of lateral mixing.
c. Cooling
from
evaporation
of falling
precipitation;
e.g., the lapse rate in rising
saturated
air which is being cooled by melting
of falling snow or hail is 9C to 14c per
kilometer.
d. Skin-friction
and form-drag
(dymmical
interaction)
bet we en the rising thermal
or
cloud and the surrounding
winds especially
when there is strong vertical-wind
shear in
the environment.
e. The compensatory
subsidence
in the
environment
of a rising convection
current
(see par. 5.23).
f. Internal
viscous friction
(can be neglected).
g. Radiation
to or from cloud boundaries
(see par, 5.1 1.0).
h. Different
effects for coalescence
versus ice-crystal
precipitation
process.
i. Cellular structure.
j. Reduction
in buoyancy due to weight of
condensed water (see par. 5.3).
k. Drag of falling precipitation
on upward vertical
motion.
excess
by the
gives a
5.2. General
Comment
on the Effect of the
A ssumpt ions
in the Parcel
Theory
on the
Utility
of Parcel-Method
Techniques.
Me-
teorologists
of a generation ago experimented
extensively
with the use of parcel-method
techniques
for analysis and forecasting
of air
and convection
weather.
masses,
fronts,
There was, at that time, little knowledge of
cloud physics
and convection
mechanisms.
Ideas of air-mass
and frontal analysis predominated
in the forecasters
routine,
and
the forecasters
were eager to use soundings
in place of indirect serology.
In more recent
~-ears, experience
has shown that while identification
of air-mass
type is no longer a
problem
requiring
soundings,
the analysis
of the soundings for temperature,
moisture,
and stability
characteristics
of the air remains
one of the basic tools for weather
by
forecasting.
But this kind of analysis
itself
has not proved very useful for forecasts of over six hours, and the necessity
of also considering
circulation
characteristics and dynamics is now generally
recognized [ 21 (and 4 W% TR200).
Parcel methods are useful because there are
definite empirical
relations
between the results of parcel computations
and the observed
atmospheric
behavior.
Also, the parcel computations
can provide
a sort of standard
of reference
against
which various
more
realistic
procedures
or forecasts
may be
compared
to see if they are an improvement over the pure parcel
computations.
In Chapter 8, considerable
information
from
recent observational,
theoretical,
and experimental studies of convection and cloud physics
will be referenced
that appears
to have a
practical
value in adapting parcel procedures
to the real atmosphere
and in appreciating
their limitations.
At this point it will suffice
to note that the main effects observed in real
convection and clouds which are not accounted
for by the parcel theory are:
52
solid, continuous,
much higher
and
adiabatic
temperature
observations.
systematic
than
small
would
be
found
in
actual
This relationship
and especially so for lorccasters.
formitous,
(freezing)
is
5.3.
designed
for
use in atmospheric
studies
is
occur
waler
from
154 ].
(as
m the water
Direct
lallou(
precipitation)
but
clouds;
many
cumuliform
varieties,
one portion
may be evaporated
marked redistribution
to the parcel at
(compared
assumption)
condensed
course,
buoyancy
- 10C
takes place
much of tic
of
does, of
in Iargc
prccipim(ion
from
of buoyant energy.
below
p.scudoadiabalic
The Parcel-Theory
Assumptions
Used in
DoD Skew T Chari.
Any thermodynamic
diagram
adds considerable
temperatures
most
the
procedures are
way.
(c 1C)
prccipi~te
USC(UI in an empirical
probably
in the assumptions
incorporated
Identifying
Basic Types of Stabiiity
instabiitty
for Smaii Parcei Displacements
Sounding
Piotted on the Skew T Chati.
and
in a
5.4.
inlo
the
various
adiabatic
diagrams
used
by
meteorologists.
Apart from lhe choice of physical
conwants, which has long been smndardized by WMO
stabiiity
165], lhcsc
assumptions
differences
have chiefly
conccmed
the
about what happens 10 the condensed
of
lcmpcralures
diagrams,
below
.saluration
OC were computed
DoD
But
adiabats
from
rwwcr
Skew T chafi,
a~
realistic
supercool ing
in
in
view
clouds,
of
al
the
Ieas[
to
char{s)
comparisons
eliminate
of
-x)c.
cvalua{ions
of
slability
and
parcel
tcmpcra[urcs
Ior lifting or heating effects on newer
diagriims will differ from resulL$ obtained from older
In some
considerable.
cases,
these
dilfcrences
will
assumption
producLs immediately
or the sa[uralion
instead
the
of lhc
adiabdt
laborious
more cxac[
Point-by -poinl
required
stability
or instability.
used
Thcrclorc,
ones,
The
the
(for
the Navys
prcdom inancc
down
of
vapor
diagrams
parcel),
layer
saturated parcel).
in a given
adiabalic
parcel
an air
in
making
all
computation
laster evaluation
In this report,
Iapsc
T, curve
of
Lhc T curve
rate comparisons
is
unless
otherwise specified.
it should be noted, however, tha[
under certain conditions,
the substitution of T Ior Tv
can
be
be a source
stability;
ptiagraph
(mathcmalicai)
thal
of
significant
a discussion
of
A de(ailed
5.8.
error
in evaluating
criteria
according
fall OU1is
5-3
\\,
-4-
STABLE
\,
\\
,\
ABSOI.UTELY UNSTABLE
,,
-SOUNOINO
OnY AOlb8AT
sounolna
\\
MOIST
Figure
Than
2.Za.
Impse
En rironrnental
Rates
OJ Dry and
(.Sounding)
Moist
Lapse
Ratv
less
Figure
,t diabats.
Than
23h.
Molsr
En vironmrfltal
CONDITIONALLY
(.Sounding)
and Jfoi.tt
UNSTABLE
\\
\
\
Iigurr
2.Ic.
Or
AOIAOAT
MOIST>OUNOING
tinrironmvntai
of Dry Adiabaf,
( Sounding)
but (;reater
than
5-4
l,ap.w
Lapse
Rate
Rate
I.er.s than
OJ Moist
I-up.se Rate
,\diaba/
on
DAeA
I.apse
,i diabats.
Rate
(;reatrr
5.5.
Descrlptlon
stability
of
of
any
displticcmcms
Stablllty
given
is classified
Criteria.
layer
Ibr
The
small
parcel
its follows:
d
a. Stab/e. Referring [o Curve AB in Figure 23:
If ir particle
it will
For
example,
[crnperalurc
O(
surrounding
of minus
will
the moist
about
A2
minus
it
would
22C,
while
2C.
surrounding
dense (and
sliilc.
always
heavier)
inm
the
lhan
This is known
air
below,
This
an cxlcmal
the
curve
of
vcrtim
or tiir without
e. Conditional State.
see Figure
sink
sporrtancous
is called aumon
of the atmosphere
Figure
23),
such
but Icw
layer
is
rrftcn
[crmcd
conditionally
stable
or condilionidly
unstable,
meaning that it is stable if unsatumled and unstable if
The
Icss dense
overturning
2.11.
h. A bsolrJ/efy
with altimdc.
height
the
wilh
bc more
There arc
tcmpemlurc
the
of air is constant
gradicnf.
have
where
at Point
Lapse Rate.
riitcs
or increasing
as Lhc autocmrvcctivc
alwtiys
original
dcnsily
it will
Iapsc
A is Iiflcd,
Autoconvection
supcrudiabalic
move
is lifted
of air at Point
accelerated
un,rfahlc.
tcmperamre
distribution
is given
air, whose
by Line CD,
As a
and
however,
adiabat.
lhan
ii~cor(i.
both
Unstable.
Referring to Curve
EF in Figure 27: II a piir[icle of air at Point E is Iif{cd,
il will move along the dry adiaba[ unlii il reaches
stttura[ion.
Assuming
[hc particle
is lifted
further,
it will
move
along
wurrncr
thcrcf(vc
rc[crrcd
passing
Point
This
(o as comlitiorud
comhina[iorr
and
unsaturatc(i
to bc ,slahlc.
clou(ls.
is always
a conditional
would
sink
back
to
ils
unsaturami
pii~~e1$ (under
position,
position,
fol knv
~hc parcel
and would
the
(he dry
w(mld
be
lend 10 rise
cvaporiition
0[ wspcndcd
conlcnl.
( Irl Kill
water cir(@Ls
will
and is
condition
the dry
assumption ) wouid
displaccrnents,
follow
and
[hc
and
In its new
a(iiatwt.
Point E2,
surroundings
sirturatcd
wanner
chimge would
psc[lti(~-a(iitihdlic
H[nvcvcr,
ils lempcramrc
original position;
cirsc ol downwar{i
c. Conditionally
ils
upward;
the krycr would [hcrclbrc be
If the displaced parcel were unsaturirlcd,
is
rcicrrit~g I() [hti I:Ic[ that the iiir mw+[ bc Iil INI pasI P{~in[
5-5
f.
Neufmi
Equilibrium.
[f the
T curve parallels
supcradiabatic
surrounding
be neither
displacement
aided
atmosphere.
nor
for
by
1,000
absolutely
of .sa(urakd
hindered
(However,
first
between
upward
from
pseudo-adiabatic
spurious effects,
is stable.)
Similarly,
if
Ihc
T curve
parallels
he
assumption
from citier
an
wind
data [321,
that
lhe radiosondc
(crmcd
supcradiaba[ic
and Dry
the
when
in k
as shown
Such rejection
measurement
irri.scs
dcfrXLs
or
wa[er cvapomting
instrument
housing
or Ihc
thcrmis!or,
must be causing the cxccssivc
cooling,
Presumably, this gencrrlly occurs while the inswurncnt
is emerging from rhe top of a cloud layer into the very
Indifferent
However,
such as condensed
lapse
occur within
surface.
rejected as erroneous
tie
off
unstable
troposphere
the
Indifferent,
respectively,
Admittedly,
Iapsc
inversion.
ralcs
the resulting
error
(rcqucndy
is more
reported.
Iikcly
wilh
5.6.
Rates.
Discussion
of
Many investigations
Superadlabatk
Lapse
5-6
However,
there is now
to a routine rejection
of the report.
When
rapid lifting of tropospheric
layers is likely,
due to either the rapid movement
of a cold
front or orographic
lifting, there is a rather
high probability
of finding a shallow layer
superadiabatic
lapse rate.
with a transitory
Altocumulus
castellanus
reports on the, surface chart are often noted in the area of such
activity.
(See also par. 5.20.2 for further
details on the effects of lifting on the lapse
rate. )
[32].
5.7,
Osclllatlon
of a Parcel as a Function
of Stahl I Ity. It is a corollary
of the classical
2r/period
(gravity)
(temperature)
described
inversion.
lapsp
rate)
photographic
studies
that each ceU builds
sating motion.
where
delta
lapse rate is the difference
between the dry-adiabatic
lapse rate and the
actual lapse rate in the region of the oscillation. Actually,
of course, in a stable layer
the parcels
oscillation
amplitude
will be
damped with time so that fimlly the parcel
comes to rest at the EL. Inanunstable
layer,
however, the oscillation
periodandamplitude
in effect increase
with time, and the period
tends to approach asymptotically
an equilibrium value at which the parcel oscillates
between top and bottom of the unstable layer
(i.e., continuous
convectional
overturning).
The latter
case is interesting
because
it
seems to confirm the potentialities
of empirical parcel-theory
appli
cat ions
to atmospheric
convection
phenomena.
Thus,
Priestley
[50] found a relation between the
observed cumulus top-height
oscillations
and
the environment
lapse rate which agreed in
a general
way with the theory. Radar and
,.
The moisture
condition
just below a temperature
x (delta
lieu
of the
of cloud growth
up with a periodic
show
pul-
minations
(see par. 5.4) causes a certain
amount of misrepresentation
of the stability.
will be greatest
where a
The discrepancy
layer of high moisture
content is adjacent to
a dry one, Use of the T curve will affect
stability determinations
as follows:
a. If
rapidly
indicate
here frequently
5-7
occurs
Td (moisture
content)
decveases
will
deck located
~250
\
/
\
\\
300
\\
\
400
\
\
\
\
\
\
600
800
MB
ABOVE
1000
Fl@wo
b.
If
TA increases
u
rapidly
24. 3anplo
Sandng
tor SWbllity
Amlysls.
with height,
If
Tt, curves
should
actually
be computed,
To
curve
should
be compared
with virtuui
greater
than the slope of the dry adiabat.
Therefore,
this layer is absolutely
unstable
(in fact, superadiabatic);
i.e., it is unstable
regardless
of its moisture
content (actually,
the T and
Td curves
show the layer to be
satu?wtion
adiabats
r a t h e r than with the
ordinarysaturation
adiabats.
The virtual
saturation
adiabats are not available, but they
would have a steeper
(more unstable) lapse
rate than the ordinary
saturation
adiabats.
As an approxi
mation,
one can assume
[ 49 ] that the virtual
saturation
adiabats
starting at a condensation
level computed
using the T v of the parcel will asymptoti-
unsaturated),
b.
and
cally approach
at about -20C the ordinary
saturation
adiabat for the same parcel
but
started
at its condensation
level computed
using ordinary
T and
Td .
The weight of the suspended water in a saturated parcel reduces the virtual temperature
somewhat;
in the hypothetical
pseudo-adiabatic
process
this effect is eliminated
by
definition,
but in the full adiabatic process,
as might be approached
in a real cloud, it
might be important.
We can define a cloud
as the temperature
at
virtual
temperature
which dry air would have the same density
as the cloud air (i. e., weight of moist cloud
air plus water or ice particles).
This cloud
virtual temperature
for an adiabatic parcel
rise of over 100 mb can be approximately
1C
to 2C colder than the temperature
indicated
by a similar
rise under the pseudo-adiabatic
assumption
(as on the Skew-T Chart) [ 54 1.
saturation
adiabats,
show the layer to be unstable
as long as it remains
saturated.
c. 850 to 800 mb.
v
curve is greater
than that of the saturation
adiabats;
and slightly less than that of the dry
adiabats,
indicating
that this layer is also
conditional.
(The T and
Td curves indicate
that the layer is definitely
unsaturated.)
A
comparison
of the Tv curve and the dry
adiabats
show the layer
curve
indicates
greater
curve.
Tv
to be stable. The T
stability
than the
5.9. An Example
of Stabi Iity Determinations
(for Small Parcel
Displacements)
w a SkewT Chart.
The plotted
sounding
shown in
a. 1000 to 950 mb. The slopes (see FootTv curves are both
note 13) of the T and
59
Figure 25 illustrates
the effects of these four
terms schematically.
In addition, Attachment
2 contains
a mathematical
discussion
of the
above equation,
which is not found in textbooks.
In the
following paragraphs,
some
comments
are made on the s y nop t i c importance of these processes,
and on how they
can be evaluated in practice.
In actual synoptic
several
of these processes
are
situations,
usually operating
simultaneously
at the same
location, and it may be difficult or impossible
to evaluate their effects s epa rate 1y. Empirical and subjective
judging of the combined
effects is often practiced.
g. 500 to 400 mb. This layer is in equilibrium since the T curve parallels
the dry adiabats and the air is unsaturated.
The remarks
on the 600- to 550-mb layer apply here also.
h. 400 to 300 mb.
stable above 400 nib.
5.10. Processes
Rate. It is not
The air
Which
is absolutely
Change
the
Lapse
feasible
to obtain an optimum, routinely-applied
stability analysis of
radiosonde
ascents unless the processes
that
tend continually
to change the lapse rate are
well understood.
Since their effects will be
referred
to throughout the rest of this manual,
a general
discussion
of them is introduced
at this point.
5.11.0. Non-Adiabatic
Effects.
These are
a. Non-adiabatic
heating and cooling (due
to radiation, conduction, evaporation,
and condensation).
of an
from
c. Differential
(or shearing)
advection
due
to vertical
wind-shear.
of temperature
d.
gence,
tion).
Vertical
motion (orographic,
divergence,
and penetrative
and
Cooling
generally
important
only
at the ground surface and within some clouds.
The formation
of low-level
stability
(or
inversions)
by nocturnal
radiation,
and of
low-level
instability
by isolatidn,
are discussed
in paragraphs
5.11.1
and 5.11.2.
Radiation
in the free air and at cloud tops,
however,
is slow and its effect on the lapse
rate is generally
negligible
for short-term
forecasting.
The release of the latent heat of
condensation
(and fusion) has important local
effects
readily
observable
whenever
condensation
takes place at sufficiently
high
temperature
so that the resulting
buoyant
energy leads to deep convection.
The latent
heat is also an important
source of kinetic
energy in the stratiform-cloud
shields formed
by upward
vertical
motion organized
on a
large scale; but here the effect of the release
of the latent heat on the lapse rate occurs
evenly over thick layers and wide areas and
is masked
by the effects
of the vertical
so that
it is not
motion on the temperature,
easily identifiable
in the scmndings. Evaporational-ccoling
and melting
effects
have a
trivial
direct
effect on lapse rates except
locally in heavy precipitation
(see [641
It is desirable
for proper
understanding
to
distinguish
the four basic kinds of physical
processes
that can change the lapse rate ata
point or in a given local vertical:
Heating
converconvec-
5.11.1.
Instability
from
Surface
Heating.
(0)
(a)
H
E
I
G
H
T
=
[
OF
TEMP-(b)
(b)
\
\
--\
~1
THE ADVECTION
LAPSE
RATE
OF THE
\
\
UPSTREAM
II
WIND
NO SHEAR)
OBS
TEMP -
(c)
(c)
H
E
THE DIFFERENTIAL
ADVECTION
OF TEMPERATURE
BY THE
VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR
_
+
WIND
H
T.
UPSTREAM
II
OBS
TEMP -
(d)
(d)
\~
: i
--
H
E
H
T ,
TEMP~
FIwM2S.
limo,
S*-lclll-tmtlm
titb
FwEtids
WMd
5-11
Atidti
Loml
Ch~dti
Lqso
RoWwlti
Sobr
Hooting
VOChongm
ot
01 ttm
thaGromd
of the penetrative-convection
effect on the
lapse rate. For this reason, when Sir Napier
Shaw popularized
the tephigram
he attempted
to induce forecasters
to compute on the diagram the heat-energy
input in ergs required
to make stable surface
layers unstable and
clouds to form, etc. The energy in ergs. expected from the surface heating could then be
compared
with the energy in ergs required
for penetrative
convection
to a given depth,
i.e., could be compared with the ergs equivalent of a negative
energy area on the diagram.
(Note: The energy equivalent
in ergs
for a unit area on a given thermodymmic
diagram can be readily determinedsee
par.
4.25 for such evaluations
(on the DOD Skew-T
Chart. ) This approach has been found feasible
and has been used successfully
to some extent
for maximum-temperature
for e casting
(USWB Forecasting
Guide No.4). However,
usually
there
are practical
difficulties
in
obtaining
the proper data on radiation properties
of the ground (albedo, conductivity,
wetness,
etc.), which affect the proportion
of
the insolation
that goes into heating the air.
l~wwturo
Lqmo
Tlrsu @).
with
less-heated
parcels.
If the lapse rate is already adiabatic
(or superadiabatic),
the bubbles
rise rapidly until a stable region is
reached
which resists
further
rise. If the
initial lapse rate is stable,
then the rise of
the surface-heated
pdrcels is resisted
from
the sta r t. Once some of the bubbles
of
heated parcels at the base of the stable region
acquire sufficient buoyancy from a small excess of temperature
over their neighboring
parcels,
or as soon as some of themare
impelled upward by mechanical turbulence,
their
momentum
causes them to penetrate
some
distance
into the overlying
stable
region.
512
distribution
of the ground- surface
temperature then becomes the main factor in determining the amount of the change in surface
This is often called
an
air temperature.
advect ion effect in synoptic parlance,
but
from the physical
point of view it is mainly
a non- adiabatic heating effect.
5.11.2.
Stability
from
Surface Cooling
the Effect of Wind Stirring).
The lapse
5.12. Advection
Effects.
Advection,
both at
the surface
and aloft, has a strong influence
on the lapse rate through a given region of
the atmosphere.
Before a forecast
is made
from a sounding, consideration
should therefore be given to the lapse- rate changes which
will result
from the effects
of advection
during the forecast
period.
(and
rate
that characteristically
results
from pure
nocturnal- radiation
effects
in a calm air
mass,
is a shallow inversion
based at the
ground.
The depth of the inversion
layer
increases
as the duration
of the cooling,
and the steepness
of the inversion
(degree of
negative
lapse rate) increases
as the degree
of cooling. However, over a snow cover, long
cooling (as during the Polar night) also tends
to develop an isothermal
layer above the inversion
[ 631. The effects of cooling of the
ground
(by radiation,
or by passage
of air
over colder ground) on the lapse rate of the
lower atmosphere
are complicated
by wind.
Wind, by turbulent
mixing of the air cooled at
the ground with warmer
air above, tends to
establish
a surface
layer with an adiabatic
lapse rate and a turbulence
inversion
above
it, as described
in Chapter 6. (Note: In this
particular
case, the wind does not change the
overall stability,
but merely shifts the inversion base to a higher level. ) All sorts of intermediate
conditions
a n d combinations
between
the ground inversion
and the turbulence inversion
can occur, depending on the
relative
degrees
of wind and cooling. The
movement
of air over cooler
ground,
of
course,
implies
wind, and usually results in
a turbulence
layer
and inversion,
Further
complications
arise when saturation
results
from the surface
cooling, leading to fog or
stratus
(see chapter
8 and AMS-TR-239).
However,
unlike the case of condensation
in
cumulus clouds, the latent heat released
in
fog or stratus is usually too small to increase
greatly the depth of mixing, On the other hand,
the formation of fog or stratus greatly reduces
or stops the further radiational
cooling of the
ground,
though there
is some radiational
cooling at the top of the fog or stratus which
tends to promote
instability
(or lessen stability) below the top.
The advection
effects,
as indicated in paragraph 5.10, may be visualized
as two processes:
a) the advection
of air of a different
lapse rate, and b) (differential
advection
of
temperature
due to vertical
wind shear. (Do
not confuse these with the effect of advection of horizontal}
homogeneous
air over
warmer
or colder ground, which is mostly a
non- adiabatic
heating or cooling effect; see
pars. 5.11.1 and 5.11.2. )
The first effect is the easier
to visualize.
An air mass with a different lapse rate may
move into the area of interest
and the typical
weather
associated
with the imported lapse
rate also accompanies
the air mass, often
with little modification.
This can happen even
without vertical shear, as shown schematically in Figure 25b.
The second effect is less obvious and also
more difficult to evaluate on synoptic charts.
This effect is often present
even when the
lapse rate is uniform horizontally
throughout
the air mass (see Figure 25c). It is due to
For this reason it is
ageostrophic
winds.
useless
to use the geostrophic
wind in attempting
to estimate
the shearing advection
effect, since in a regime of geostrophic
winds
(at all heights) all shears are parallel to the
isotherms
and the shearing motion does not
change the lapse rate. It is the vertical shear
of the ageostrophicwind components
tnat
accomplishes
advectional
change of the lapse
5-13
THI
TH2
J.
/
i
1000-mb THICKNESS
LINES
= ~o;mbwmof,=
SHEAR
2000ft
FIwa
tin
27. lb
TH *
WINO-
vECTOR
FROM
TO SOOmb
Effect
of Stwarlng
Mdhm
stabilization
Ilv
occurs
(aTv~>o )
,as
wtrorotho
lnAra
m th
k..
shaar
Lqm
voctorcrmooa
Stab411*lcm
of tho Iqsa
mto
occur.
whsrc
thlcknoa
f+vT9asnraAallnos towordo
NgFnr
thlcknoso:
B.
inspection.
Rat..
Iowor tNcknosc:
towrds
let)el,
But
most
of
the time,
the actual
be clearly distinguished
from the
geostrophic
wind, and then the lapse- rate
change due to shear cannot be reasonably
judged.
flow
way
of judging the shear effect would be
to plot the actual wind-shear
vector of the
layer from 2000 feet above the surface to 500
mb on a chart which contains
the 1000- to
500-mb
thickness
analysis;
wherever
the
shear vectors
are directed towards warmer
regions,
a decrease
of stability
should be
taking place, :ind vice versa. Lfthe winds were
One
stability
514
cannot
geostrophtc
at all levels
in the layer the
shear vectors would blow along the thickness
lines and no stability change would be taking
place. Unfortunately,
no experience
with this
approach
h% available.
The principle
is illustrated
in Figure 27.
In actual
the total
large- scale
are so intimately
that a general
discussion
of thetr
combined
effects
on
the lapse rate will be given in paragraphs
5.14.0 through 5.14.6. In that discussion
the
case is included as a special
no- divergence
caibe.
associated
practice,
many forecasters
estimate
advecttve
change of stability
on a
5.14.0.
5.13. Preliminary
Vertical
Motion.
Remarks
on the Effects
vertical
in the
E f f ects
motion
atmosphere
of Convergence
and Diver-
The divergence
(convergence)
is, of
not necessarily
zero
in the atcourse,
mosphere,
for in developing
pressure
systems there must be a more or less marked
field of divergence.
What are the complications that the divergence
int reduces in assessing
the effects
of vertical
motion on
the lapse rate? The answer is unfortunately
not simple, because
it depends on the relative magnitudes
of the divergence
and the
rate of ascent or descent.
gence.
of
Let us consider
a thin layer defined by a
pressure
interval,
Ap, and the area, A, of
its projection
on the horizontal
plane. Then,
for any transformation
of the layer under the
conservation
af mass,
the product
of A~
A piA ~ = Ay@2,
and A does not change:
where subscript
1 refers to the initial state
and subscript
2 to the final state. (This is the
equation of continuity. )
By the hydrostatic
equation,
Ap = -pgh,
where p is density, g is gravity, and h is the
thickness
of a layer
(in feet or meters).
Substituting
for A P and dropping
g (which
is essentially
a constant for our purposes),
we may write the equation
in ratio form
as:
When
curs,
515
convergence
(negative divergence)
ocA2/A ~ is < 1, and when divergence
Flguro
2S. Lqoo-~
Cauod
Cases
For
Stretching.
= hl
occurs)
Without
(no vertical
and
that
Vertical
example,
assume
stretching
there
Shrinking
or
that
the
or SUM-
extent
of o Dry
that
Layar.
AO/4,
0.9.
Then,
p</
1
also.
S~nce Q increases
from
the initial
to the final state, there is descending
motion to obtain the density increase.
Similarly,
if A2/A1 = 1.1, the area
P2
= 0.9
increases
from
i.e.,
divergence
the initial
exists,
p
to final
decreases
state;
and
convergence
or
there
h2
divergence
can be associated
with vertical
motion without resulting
in any change of
lapse rate provided only the thickness
of the
layer remains constant.
shrinking
is convergence
by Llfhg
to
16
is ascending
motion.
Thus,
or
Physically,
divergence
has time as one of its dimensions
so the actual amount of divergence
depends on how long it continues. In the simple demonstration
here we are concerned only with
its sign.
516
5.14.2 Cases
With
Convergewe
but Without
Vert ica I Motion. Alternatively,
let us
assume
that
vertical
motion,
tically.
For an entirely
dry-adiabatic
(or
entirely
saturation-adiabatic)
process,
the
lapse rate will, as a result of vertical stretching, tend to approach
the dry (or saturation)
adiabatic
(respectively
)!On the other hand,
if, again without divergence,
the layer descends, P2 SP
1, and h z <h 1 ;i. e., the
there
is
p ~ =
but
h2,
i.et,
is
= 0.9;
Then
increases,
be larger.
must
there
42/41
convergence.
state,
p ~;
hl/h2
i.e.,
= 0.9
.
rate is changed
in the same sense
the case of ascent without divergence
pa% 5.14,4);
that is, the lapse rate
to approach
the dry (or saturation)
abats.
5.14.3.
Vertical
no
as in
(see
tehds
adi-
layer
shrinks
vertically.
lapse rate tends to depart
adiabatic!
motion,
divergence
is
but
occurring,
hl/h2
5,14.6.
= 1.1
also,
which means
a thickness
decrease.
Hence, the lapse rate changes in the same
sense
as for descent
without divergence
(see par. 5014.4), that is, the lapse rate
tends to depart further from adiabatic.
5.14.4.
gence)
The No-Divergence
Case. If there
is
convergence,
/Q\
(P2)
and
. ~
\.h;
(No-C onve
no divergence
h vary according
=l;
Al
PI
or=
P2
r-
In the Upper
Levels.
This is not
so for the middle and higher levels where
the
continuity
equation
can be satisfied
by any of the possible categ~ries
of combinations of p , h , and A, shown in Table 1.
This table includes
as categories
7-12 the
special arbitrary
cases, four of which (categories
9-12) were discussed
in paragraphs
5.14,1 through 5.14.4, where one of theparameters is held constant:
Pl=P2)h~=~2J
or A1=A2.
hl
layer
ascends
decreases
p z <
with height
p ~ , since
the
the
or
to:
case,
from
Cases
With Divergence
but Without
Motion.
Xf p ~ = p2; i.e., there is
no vertical
In this
further
the
in the atmos-
17
These effects of ascent and descent on the lapse rate for the no-divergence
or no- convergence
assumption
are the rules often stated in textbooks.
Though their limitations
are often overlooked, these rules are widely used by forecasters.
They are generally
valid only for qualto 500 mb, Nor are
itative use and for the lower troposphere
-- up to 700 mb and sometimes
they safely applicable
to very thick layers or for very large displacements,
in view of the fact
that vertical
motion and divergence
usually vary markedly with height and time.
5-17
Categories
2 through 5, however, do not occur in the lower atmosphere,
w h e r e the
ground
forms
a fixed boundary
surface.
TABLE
Category
Number
Divergence
Vertical
Motion
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Divergence
Divergence
Divergence
Convergence
Convergence
Convergence
Divergence
Convergence
Divergence
Convergence
None
c1None
Descent
Ascent
Ascent
Descent
Descent
Ascent
None
LJN
Ascent
Descent
Ascent
Descent
categories
1, 2, 3, 7, and 9 occurs, assuming
one can determine
that divergence is present,
nor which of the categories
4, 5, 6, 8, and 10
occurs
if convergence
is present.
This is a
problem that in practice
has to be approached
empirically.
5.15.
How
to
Assess
the
Vertical-Motion
The
determination
of
the distribution,
sign, and magnitude
of the
vertical
motion aloft poses some difficulties
in routine synoptic practice.
The NWP vertical- motion charts
(both the synoptic and
prognostic)
for the layer 850 mb to 500 mb
now being transmitted
by facsimile
from the
National Meteorological
Center are probably
the best answer for the region they cover and
the detachments
that receive them, (These
charts should improve in accuracy and coverage over the next several years. )
Field
in
Practice.
Thickness
Shrinks
Shrinks
Stretches
Shrinks
Stretches
Stretches
Shrinks
Stretches
EEZl
Stretches
Shrinks
Change In
Etpse Rate (If
Initially Stable)
More Stable
More Stable
Less Stable
More Stable
Less Stable
Less Stable
More Stable
Less Stable
No Change
No Change
Less Stable
More Stable
mb surface over the United States. Theprinciples to be followed in this are well discussed
by Cressman
[ 20 ] ; note that the inference
of the vertical
motion requires
that care be
taken to consider
the local-change
term in
the vorticity
equation when the vorticity gradients are large. Examples of the inference
of vertical
motion from vorticity
advection
at 300 mb are shown in Section 4.2 of AMS
TR 105-130.
If vorticity
charts
are not available,
it is
possible
to judge the approximate
vorticity
advection
by inspection
of the contollr and
But
isotach charts
(see A!4S-TR-Z29).
here, there is difficulty in inferring
the sign
of the vertical motion except near the ground.
Without vertical-motion
or vorticity
charts
it is necessary,
therefore,
to use empirical
models such as those of Figures 29 and 30,
as well as the well-known Bjerknes-Holmboe
model [ 15 ] for the relation of the verticalwind profile
to the convergence-divergence
pattern (that de t e r m i ne s how troughs and
ridges
move), and the Endlich jet-stream
._
I
I
Ii
I
I
I
I
I
I
/
I
I
i
I
I
I
ii
Flwo
29. Effoc!
L~BO Rot. AX
of Dlvorgon~
on Arw d
ond Votiicml
Folli~
$urtoa
h4ation Mm
P roosuro;
ttw
Flguro
Lwso
519
30. Etfoct
Rot. Abon
of Dlwrgma
ond VortlWl
on A roo of Risiw
Surtics
Motlm
wcm
Prossuro.
ttm
Figure 29 illustrates
the typical distribution
of vertical motion, divergence,
and lapse-rate
change in an area of falling surface pressure,
and Figure 30, in an area of rising surface
pressure.
We see that in the typical case the
rise or fall of surface
pressure
is due to a
small net difference
in several large-magniand divergence
regions in
tude convergence
the vertical
column above the ground. Even
in areas
without marked
surface-pressure
tendency,
there may be layers aloft with divergence
and convergence,
but if so, the
magnitudes
are usually small and they fully
compensate
one another. Observe in Fi~mres
29 and 30 these rules:
Urhe?e the upuxwd
motion
incveuses
(OV downwuyd
motion
de creases)
with height, the lapse vate (if initial ly stable)
tends
to become
less
siablc;
and
where upwid
motion decreases
(oY downwavd
motion increases)
mth height,
the lapse rate
tends to become
move stable.
Finally,
there are the so-called
<objective
measures
of the divergence
and vertical motion computed from a triangle of rawin soundings
[ 11 ] [ 22 ] [ 28 1. These aretcm
sensitive
to errors
in the rawin equipment to
be very accurate, and the usual station spacing
is so coarse
that the divergence
areas of
small
lateral
extent are smoothed
out or
missed as much as they are on vertical-motion or vorticity charts.
5.16.
Penetrative
Convection..
T his
is
form of vertical
motion in the atmosphere
consisting
of either
random
or organized
local vertical
currents
having cross- sections of the order
of a few feet to a few
II. I le s; Most of these vertical
motions,
especially
in the lower atmosphere,
are due
convection
initially created by the
to thermul
effect of heating or cooling (e. g., as described
5.17.
Stability
-instability
Criteria
for
Large
The stability
criteria of paragraph
5.5 for small parcel displacements,
while generally
applicable
and
widely used,
are not Indicative
of what
might happen when layers
or parcels
are
Vertical
Displacements.
Is
in synoptic practice usually deals explicitly with only the larger vertiwith cumulus clouds, with thermals, bumpiness, turbulence
af-
520
._
given larger
vertical
displacements,
such
as would cause whole layers to change their
type of stability over a broad area, or would
cause parcels to cool adiabatically
to saturation and to penetrate deeply into layers having
different stability (i. e., stability
according
to the criteria
of par. 5.5). As a result, a
have been proposed to
numb~r tJ& procedures
apply the parcel theory to this problem
of
large vertical
displacements.
However,
for
some reason,
more attention has been given
to the effects of large displacements
from
lifting than to those from heating.
5.18.0.
Latent
the anal-
ysis
for latent
instability
has not been
widely practiced
outside
of India and its
value
is controversial,
many publications
and meteorology
courses
have represented
it otherwise.
A discussion
of it here is
desirable
if only to clear up the confusion
and misunderstanding.
Normand
[ 46 ] suggested that for estimating the effects of lifting parcels
of a deep
which is in the conditional
state,
it
layer
should be useful
to classify
the soundings
into types. First, he distinguished
soundings
in which lifting would cause at least some
parcels
to become unstable (warmer than the
environment)
from those soundings in which
lifting could not result in any parcels becoming unstable,
The first type he called ktenl
instability.
The second type has no latent
instability
and he designated
it as the stable
Iype of the conditional
state.
Two different
a p p r o a c h e s to the lifting
problem
have been developed
and appear in
most textbooks.
The first one involves the
instability,
and aims to
concept
of latent
predict
what happens when a parcel is lifted
mechanically
(as by a front, mountain,
or
convergence);
the other approach involves the
(or conl)ectite
concept of poten&iaI instability,
instability)
in which the effect of bodily lifting
any layer (or the whole atmosphere!)
is considered.
It will be shown in the next few paragraphs that these two concepts lead to rather
different
results see paragraph
5.22 for a
comparison
summary.
Theprac
ticalvalue
of the procedures
developed from these approaches
now seems
to be along different
lines than originally
envisaged
by their authors.
Most textbooks
still present
these methods as their originators did, rather than in the light of presentday practice
and experience.
Unfortunately,
the reasoning
behind these procedures
was
never carefully
nor fully explored by the proponents
of the procedures.
Nor have other
theoretical
meteorologists
felt the parcel
approach to the problem sufficiently
interesting or promising
to give it a more thorough
and comprehensive
formal development.
As
a result,
these procedures
have been developed or modified mostly by empirical
trial
and error
in forecasting
offices to the point
where the rational basis for them has become
This makes it difficult to
generally
obscure.
give a logical and systematic
presentation
of
the state of this art.
521
REAL-LATEN1
INSTABILITY
-300
-500
/
,!0
Fl~ro
31. Throw Typws al Ccdtiaml
E@libritun
for a Lifting Proaas.
It Is ssunwd that it is tho surticw
Paral
ttmt it
IiRod. Part A shows tti stabio typo with no bt~
instability;
Part
Bshow
a case at pseudo-latent
ins= bility;
Part
C shows
a cu..
cd real-btwnt
instibi Iity. Not~cw tbt
thw tonqmratura
@so-ratw
curvm
(T) in all throo parta of tb
fl~o
are tlm
samw, and to -in
th
typas cd condltiaml
O@ Iibrim
cm
IWO* mly to vary the rmlstura
cantont of tha lifted mrtacw
pared.
energy
area
(see
par.
4.23).
There
is
Validity
of Assumption.
There are
implicit in Normands
ideas certain assumptions which are not valid. The hypothesis
that the Ye@tive size of the positive and
the negative
areas
should be a criterion
for the intensity
of the convection
weather
from lifting was purely intuitive as well as
a gross oversimplification.
Experience
has
shown that the actual sizes of the negative
area and of the positive area are more important for the forecasting
of cumulus clouds
and showers
than is the difference
in size
between
thepositive
and negative
areas
[49]
. This is because the negative area
in every case must first be wiped out before
any convection
weather
can begin, and the
negative area may be too large for theavailable lifting to overcome
regardless
of the
size of the positive area. Also, evena pseudolatent sounding can sometimes
produce very
severe weather,
such as when both the negative and the positive
areas are narrow and
deep and there
is m ark e d convergence.
Strictly speaking, the positive area evaluates
energy which cononly that part of the litent
tributes
to buoyancy
for Pee convection.
Normands
criteria
fail to account for the
additional
latent energy released
by both the
lifting
and convergence
processes,
which
often make the difference
b e t w e e n weak
cumulus development
and severe storms. The
magnitude of the lifting may also be the critical factor; e.g., even with a small positive
area,
a sufficiently
large lift might cause
severe weather. In this connection,
note that
Normands
criteria
imply that the lifting
5.18.1
for
Procedure
Finding
Whether
Any
Normand discovered
a simple
procedure
to determine
whether
a sounding
is of the stable type
or has some latent instability
(of either
type). For this procedure
it is necessary
that
the
Tw curve for the sounding be plotted on
Latent
I nstabi Iity
is Present.
the adiabatic
diagram along with the T curve.
Figure 32 shows an example.
Step
the saturation
tangent to the
as shown at Point Q.
be used to determine
with latent instability.
523
Td curve
at a glance
)
can
the layers
-.
250
/bQ
/
250
300
/
/
600
1. \
\
\
+-TANGENT
SATURATION
--
\
1
!d
000
860mb
,.
1000
Fl~ro
byor(s)
5.18.3.
tween
The
Value
Pseudoand
of the Distinction
Real-Latent
Instabi
Layor(s]
ol a Samdlng.
Ttm poturtlal-lnoWMllW
8eIity.
Accordintl
to Normand,
merely determining
which layers
have some latent instability
does not answer the more important question
(to him) as to whether the latent instability
is of the pseudo- or real type. The only way
to determine
this is to analyze on an adi524
of l~tent instability.
Obviously the labor of
making this evaluation
for many parcels and
:l-,unciings requires
much more time than
.Il(lai practicing
forecasters
can spare for it.
Norn~and and his disciples
have not been able
to develop anyobjective
procedure to simplify
and shorten
this procedure
if indeed it is
even possible.
However, their papers indicate
that they consider the surface parcel usually
to be sufficiently
representative
of the whole
Tw
latently-unstable
layer whenever
the
or T curves show that the moisture content
d
decreases
regularly
but not too rapidly with
height in the lowest 100 mb. Furthermore,
they generally
assume that latent instability
is most likely in the surface and lower tropospheric
layers, where the moisture
content
is usually highest.
In India, the only region
where the criteria
for the type of latent minstability have been extensively
applied, this
is probably
true; and it also has been the
practice
there to consider
the surface
and
lower layers as the ones that will always be
lifted. In middle latitudes these assumptions
seem
unnecessarily
restrictive,
because
moisture
contents
increasing
or varying irregularly
with height and lifting of upper
layers
as well as surface
layers are
frequently
observed.
Very few reports have
appeared
on systematic
attempts
to apply
latent-instability
-criteria
evaluations
to the
variety of conditions found in middle latitudes.
Since the moisture
content
normally
decreases
with height, Normands
method of
locating
the layer(s)
with latent instability
tends to favor the surface
layers and often
misses higher layers that have strong potential instability
(see par. 5.19.0) releasable
with a large but expected
lift. It has been
suggested
that where a temperature
sounding
plotted on a Skew-T Chart has several pronounced and thick projections
of the lapse
rate to the left, and/or
the moisture
curve
has several
such projections
to the right, a
separate
tangent saturation
adiabat should be
drawn for each projection
or distinctive
segment of the temperature
curve. In this way,
secondary
layers
of latent instability
are
revealed which may also be released
if there
is (as often happens)
more convergence
in
their region than in the lower region of the
primary
latent instability.
5.18.4. Utility
of Latent-Instability
Amlysis
in General.
In the absence
of some guid-
5-25
/
/
,/
/
OOARS
rnb
,1
Fi~ro
latent-instability
concept
of mainly
in this way,
criterion
for instability
of that term.
33. Em~io
ala
Stabio
Layer
with P@crRial
lno~bility.
should be thought
rather
than asa
in the usual sense
5.19.
Potential
Instability.
In the ear 1y
1930s,
when forecasters
were trying
to
explain
as much weather
as possible
in
terms
of fronts, Rossby [52 1introduced
the
concept
of a criterion
for the instability
or stability
of a layer resulting
when it is
lifted as a whole, as at a front or mountain.
He called the instability
released
in this way
convective
instability, an unfortunate
term
because
it implies that convection
does not
result from any other type of instability
or
lifting. Later, Hewson [ 31 ] proposed this
should be more properly
called potential
and less
instability, a more appropriate
am bi~mous term that is gradually coming into
526
The criteria
which Rossby introduced
were
on the lapse rate of equivalent potential
temperature
(see par 4.12). This was a convenient unit in the 1930s when it was customary to plot soundings ona Rossby diagram,
as one of l.ts coordinates.
As
which has e
based
temperature),
\
300
300
.
400
. ..... . ...
.,,
4oo
-600
-700
600
................................................. ....
- 600
600
900
1000
1000
Tw
curve
of the sounding
4.9).
The
Rossby
criteria
is plotted
(see par.
then
become:
b. Layers
in which the wet-bulb
lapse
rate is less than the saturation
adiabatic are
potentially
stable. In other words, the slopes
of the T curve and the saturation
adiabats
w
are compared.
a. Layers
in which the wet-bulb
lapse
rate is greater than the saturation
adiabatic
are potentially
unstable.
Illustrated
in Figure 33 is an analysis on a
Skew-T
Chart to show how a stable layer
5-27
having potential
instability,
as indicated
by
the Tw curve becomes unstable when lifted
enough. (Note that this demonstration
is made
by parcel
procedures;
the use of the potential-instability
concept is sometimes
referred to as the layer method as though it
was not derived from the parcel theory, which
is a misconception,
)
5.20.0.
Tw
adiabats,
the
TU, curve
saturatl~lll
is more
adiabats,
the
nearly
In layers
rate from
parallel
T{i curve
Potentially
Un-
For example,
a shallow potentially-unstable
layer with deep layers of potentially-stable
air both above and below, when lifted to saturation may produce any of the following: A
solid stratiform
deck of cloud, only scattered
shallow
cumulus,
cumulus
and altostratus
penetrating
into
the
mixed, or deep cumulus
higher stable layers with or without precipitation. Which of these possibilities
will
actually
occur presumably
depends on a
variety
of factors,
such as the amount of
lifting beyond that just sufficient to start condensation,
the steepness
of the lapse rate of
wet-bulb temperature,
the degree of stability
of the adjacent layers, the speed and spatial
u n i f o r m i t y of the lifting, etc. For many
practical
purposes
there may be little difference in the clouds and weather that result
from lifting a shallow potentially-stable
layer
as compared
to those frc~m lifting a shallow
potentially-unstable
layer. Therefore,
there
are p ro ba b 1y many cases of potential instability
in which the instability
aspect is
of trivial
significance,
e~pecially
in winter.
will
usually
show the same sign of departure,
though the exact top and bottom limits of the
potentially
unst~ble layers may not always
be determinable
from the Td curve. When
the
Lifting
Layers.
for the
idea of
curve
of
Stable
lapse-rate
slopes), and it isalwaysa
question
what kind of weather their lifting will produce.
This question
has not been given any formal
theoretical
analysis;
but a few inferences
can easily be made.
In Figure
34 :s an example of potentially
unstable
layers Identified by the T curve,
w
and with the Td curves added to show what
one may substitute
the latter
curve to get an approximate
and
strong
dry inversion
or having a rapid
drying out above J surface moist layer. There
are, however,
many other layers with lessT
marked
potential
instability
(steeper
Potentially-stable
layers are all those layers
of the sounding which will not become unstable by any amount of lifting.
extent
Effects
stable
tothe
becomes
5.20.1.
Does
Unstable?
tential
sirable
used.
528
the
Whole
Layer
Become
on representative
parcels
at several heights
in the layer to see whether the condensation
will start
first
at the top, or the middle,
or the bottom
of the layer.
One can find
cases
where considerable
more lifting is
required
to saturate
the bottom than the
top, or vice versa,
and the question then
arises:
If the lifting expected
will not be
sufficient
to saturate
the whole layer, will
the convection
started in the first-saturated
part spread rapidly through the remainder
of the layer
anyway? It is often assumed
that the whole layer will become unstable
upon saturation
of any part of it, but this
presumably
cannot happen until the lapse
rate of the unsaturated
part of the layer
becomes
conditionaly(if
it were not already
conditional
before lifting see Figures 35a
and 35b). It could also happen that potentially-stable
layers adjacent
to the potentiallyunstable
layer saturate
first, with the
possibility
of starting a premature
convection
in the potentially-unstable
layer by mixing
and penetration
across
the boundary.
Likewise, surface-heating
convection may penetrate
into a low- lying potentially-unstable
layer while it is being lifted, resulting
in
local releases
of its instability
before the
layer lifting alone would do so.
X34-.+!
ISOBARS
-900
+3
,0 If
I
Loyor
AB cm
,*
-?06
800
/
*.
8S0
-900
IS08ARS
/
%
Lapr
example
in Figure 35a, this would require
lifting by an additional
55 mb, after which the
resultant
lapse rate WOUIUthen be Arr Bf.
19
529
-oo~..
/,
/
/
700
\
ISOBARS
k
u/
34. Sqorudabtlc
/ -.
-oo+ki
FIwwa
-?07+
-u
h:!
y$-{
/ d.
mb
/?
4.
Laps.
Rats
(DE1)
Rosuttlng
from
Llftlngan
Alr
Mass
lDOmb.
about
ward
530
potential
instability
requires
that the layer
or layers
identified
as having it be examined
to see how much lift is needed
f o r its
release.
This can be done by
choosing
in each
such layer
the parcel
with the highest relative
humidity (the one
where T - Td is least) and lifting it to satu-
5.20.2.
Layer
Superadiabatic
Lapse
Lifting.
In evaluating
Rates
f r om
on a diagram
the effect of lifting of potentially-unstable
layers,
one sometimes
finds cases where
a superadiabatic
lapse rate appears to result,
as illustrated
in Figure 36.
A superadiabatic
lapse rate (i. e., slope less
than the dry adiabats)
can result from the
lifting of a layer through which the moisture
content decreases
sharply with height, as in
dry-type
inversions
(SU bs i d e n c e, trade
wind, etc.).
In Figure
36 the T and
Td
curves
5.20.5.
which
lease
How Much
of Instability?
Lift
The
is
Needed for
practical
use
of Potentially-Stable
Layers.
5.21. P recesses
Which Change the Potential
Instabi I ity. ln general, those processes
which
increase
the moisture
content (wet-bulb
or
5.20.3
Effects
of Divergence.
Divergence
has no effect on the potential
instability
of an unsaturated
layer, since the potential
wet-bulb temperature
is conservative
for a
dry-adiabatic
process.
However, the effect of
divergence
on the temperature
lapse rate
during a lifting process
may speedupor
slow
down the rate of the lifting, and thus has a
bearing on how soon the potential instability
might be released.
Note also that there may
be potentially -siable
layers
that if lifted
enough, could become unstable with or without saturation
under the combination
of convergence
or
divergence
with vertical
stretching
(see par. 5.14.6).
5.20.4.
Lifting
The saturation
of a potentially -stable layer
upon lifting may begin at any part of the layer,
One can predict the location and final extent
of the resulting
cloud only by testing parcels in different
parts of the layer to see
which one becomes
saturated
first by the
amount of lifting expected. In addition, potentially-stable
layers
may be penetrated
by
clouds formed in the release of potential instability of the layers beneath.
Re-
of
531
dew-point
temperature)
of the lower levels,
and/or
decrease
the moisture
content
at
higher
levels
tend to create
or increase
All the effects
that
potent ial instability.
change the lapse rate, as discussed
in paragraph 5.14.6, can indirectly
change the vertical distribution
of potential
stability
and
instability,
through their effects on evaporation and diffusion of moisture.
5.22. Relation
Between
Potential
and Latent
Instabi I ity. lt is evident from the literature
definite.
For example,
the following cases
may be cited: Layers with latent instability
(stability)
often overlap
or partly coincide
with those of potential instability
(stability);
only the bottom fiarts of layers of potential
instability
generally
have latent instabiljt y; in
layers
where both types of instability
occur,
the latent instability
is usually of the reallatent type; potentially-stable
layers
often
have
latent
instability.
See Figures
32
and 34 for illustrations
of some of these
cases.
The Bjerknes-Petter
ssen slice approach
is
incomplete
because
the effects
of mixing,
and shear
across
the cloud
entrainment,
boundaries
are
not considered.
However,
for cumulus
forecasting
the effects of entrainment
and wind shear could probably be
estimated
empirically,
using as a qualitative
guide the extensive
research
literature
on
cumulus dynamics.
There is a difficulty
in (choosing a suitable
convection
model for a valid slice theory.
The nature of the compensating
subsidence
in the environment
of a convection
updraft
is not definitely
known. The descent may be
largely
concentrated
close to the boundary
of the updraft (the Bjerknes assumption),
or
spread over a wide area extending far from
the updraft, or in case of a cumuliform
cloud
take place partly inside the cloud (as often
actually observed).
All three processes
probably occur
in varying degrees and combinations from case to case.
5.23. Slice
Method. The assumption
in the
parcel
theory that the parcel
moves up or
down without disturbing
the environment
is
obviously unrealistic,
As the parcel moves,
the environment
must
readjust
to some
extent flowing into the space evacuated
by
the parcel
and giving way in front of it,
causing the distribution
of temperature
and
density in the environment
to change slightly.
This effect may be considered
trivial
on
the scale of parcels;
but when we try to
apply the parcel
method to convection
columns
of the size
of large
cumulus
and
thunderstorms,
the effect greatly limits the
practical
application.
A step towards improving on the parcel theory in this respect,
was
introduced
by J. B]erknes
[ 14 ] who considered theoretically
the effect of neighboring
up and down currents
ina horizontal
(isobarically bounded) (slice of the atmosphere
on
t he parcel-stability
c r i t e r i a. Petterssen
[ 48 ] and Beers [ 13 ] developed actual
procedures
for applying this cun(ept in prattice. Th(st) lJr~){edures ar[ rattler (umb[r-
Petterssen,
et al, [ 49 1 experimentedwith
an application
of his slice method to the analysis of soundings for estimating the amount of
cloudiness
(sky cover) and the height of cloud
tops. In light of later studies
[ 36 ] it seems
doubtful that a better prediction
of the cloud
tops is given by Petter ssens procedure
than
by parcel procedures.
Nor has it been demonstrated
that the cloudiness
is satisfactorily
predictable
by this approach although the slice
reasoning
seems to account for the statistical
fact that in air-mass
[convection situations,
the probability
IS .Ibt)ut 85(; that the cloud
rover will not exfecd f{mr octas.
532
Cressman
[ 21 ] d e r i v e d an interesting
and apparently
significant
extension of Petterssens
analysis
to show the effect ofhorizon(al divergence
on the cloudiness.
When
the ratio
(y - Y~) / (yd -Y) is small, the
effect of the divergence
(convergence)
on the
cloudiness
is large; and, when this ratio is
large, the effect of the divergence
(convergence) is small. (yis the sounding lapse rate)
v ~, the dry adiabatic,
and v ~, the saturation adiabatic
lapse rate. ) This would seem
to explain the fact that in the oceanic tropics
where the lapse rate in the lower troposphere
is always close to the saturation
adiabatic,
the cloudiness
may be little or much, depending largely on the presence
of general subsidence or convergence.
The slice-method
procedu
re s so far developed do not greatly alter the ~sults
of
the parcel
methods and the apparent differences may easily
be due to other factors
overlooked.
The effect on stability
criteria
by using these slice-method
procedures
instead of the parcel procedures
is to indicate
somewhat less instability
(or more stability)
in that region of the positive area lying above
the height where the sounding curve becomes
parallel to the saturation adiabats, and somewhat more instability
(or less stability) below
that height
[ 48 1 [ 49 ] . In empirical
forecasting
procedures
this difference
is
usually
of little or no consequence
for the
relationships
of stability criteria
to weather,
although
the numbers
obtained will be dif fVrent.
o, eE9
height,
However, experience
has shown that an index
or critical
index value which is significant in
one region (or season) may not be in another
[ 61 ] . Hence, the stability chart
[41
should be more of an experimental
or investigative tool thana routine one, unless extensive
5-33
-250
/b
,Zq
,0
,*O
,s~
+>
)/\~
-300
\%+
G
+
o
,?
+0,
400
boo-
s00
-22%
//
///
ISOBARS
mb
coo
moo
/
1000
potential-instability
concept; but many forecasters
have applied them to the forecasting
of showers
in general, from heating as well
as from lifting. The fact that the results of
such across-the-board
applications
seem
to be useful (when combined with other parameters)
indicates
that these indexes
to a
considerable
extent also reflect conditions
correlation
studies
have selected
an index
significant
for the extended general applica tion
[
4 J [ 61 1, and the critical index
values for various weather
conditions
have
been determined.
The Showalter,
Fawbush-Miller,
Indexes described
below are all
and
Lifted
based
on the
l-x.
534
rapidly
of thunderstorms
increases
for Index values in the range +1 to -2.
c. Index values
of -3 or less
sociated with severe thunderstorms.
5.24.1. The Showalter
Index. The procedure
for computing the Showalter
Stability Index
(S1) is illustrated
in Figure 37.
(T),
Step 1. From the 850-mb temperature
draw a line parallel
to the dry adiabats upward to the LCL (see par.
4. 20). (Mountain stations should start
with some higher constant- pressure surface
temperature
c hose n according
to circumstances.
Such a
procedure
is incorporated
into the
instructions
given
in FMH No. 3
(Circular
P) for computing
the stability indexes
that are transmitted
as part of the radiosonde reports from
U.S. and Alaskan stations
these indexes also appear
on the stability
index charts transmitted
by facsimile
from the NMC.)
Step 2
subtract
T1 from the
Step 3. Algebraically
500- mb temperature.
The value of
the remainder
(including its algebraic
sign) is the value of the Showalter
Index. (In Figure 37, T1 = - 25C, T =
- 22C; the Showalter Index is therefore +3. ) This Index is positive when
Tt lies to the left of the T curve.
Positive
Index values imply greater
stability of the sounding.
For forecasting
purposes
Showalter
[ 581 groups
values as follows:
are
as-
Lifted
Index. The
arbitrary
5.24.2. The
choice of 850 mb in the Showalter
Index
makes it difficult to use on a detailed synoptic time and space basis
when, as often
happens,
there is an inversion
or rapid drop
in moisture
which passes through the 850- mb
surface
between
stations
or between
two
successive
sounding
times.
To avoid this
difficulty,
Galway
of the U. S. Weather
Bureau SEIJ3 Center [ 21 devised the Lifted
Index (LI), a modification
of the Showalter
Index. To evaluate
the LI, the mean mixing
ratio in the lower 3000 feet of the sounding
is determined
by equal-area
averaging. Then
the mean potential temperature
in the lower
3000 feet at the time of convection is determined by forecasting
the afte moon maximum
temperature
and assuming
that a dry- adiabatic
lapse rate will prevail
through this
3000-foot
layer
(if significant
heating,
or
cooling, is not expected during the afternoon,
the mean temperature
of the lower 3000 feet
as shown on the sounding is used). From these
mean values
the LCL is located (see par.
4.20). Then the saturation
adiabat through
this LCL is extended upward to 500 mb. The
500- mb temperature
thus determined
is assumed to be the updraft temperature
within
the cloud if one develops.
The algebraic
cliff e rence between the environment
temperature and the updraft temperature
(observed
minus computed)
at 500 mb defines the LI.
LI values are usually algebraically
less than
S1 values.
Lifted
Index
(MLI).
5.24.3
The Modlfled
arbitrary
alofl;
clfccis
relative-humidily
bclwccn
O( c(AI
Icvcl at which
is -200C.
to be the updwf(
de V~[Op.
The
the environmental
(Tr)
F.xknd
upward
tcmpcrahwc
[he
through
this
The
Iaycr,
will be su(ficicntly
U(
accurate, ii
and
line
MLI = -20- T
htilf-wity
approxinmtiorr
diffcrcncc
(-200C)
TW, curve
approximaliorr
the cloud,
tilgcl-miic
about
is msumcxi
wilhin
is
Slcp 2. Plol the TW curve (see Para 4.9) for [hc moisl
to [he
tcmpcramrc
[bus determined
tcmpcraturc
a c k)ud
index.
this L(L
[he cnvironmcnml
The [cmpcraturc
hciwccn
Lilted
adiaba[ through
viduc
mb (where RH = 57%).
prohlcvn.
should
The
Index (Para
(equal-area
averaging).
Tbc
isolhcrrn
(in
Figure
is not calcultitcd
when
if
MI. I threshold
Lillcd
vducs
Index.
cs[imalc
lhc
Although
potcrrtial
those
[or the
(he MLI
was dcvclopcd
[()
Ior scvcrc
Ihundcrsloms
in
step
The
5.24.4.
Fawbush-Miller
Stablllty
(FMI).
moist
Iaycr.
surlace
This
stratum
moist
whose
krycr
upper
humidi[y
Irom
Index
as a
moist
Iaycr:
ignored
in identifying
the moist
[aycr. )
The pr(~cdure
((jr computing
[he FM I is shown
in
Figure 38:
SIcp 1. (ompule
{nough
= +1 l/2).
and
rcla[ivr
pninls
humi(iity
in
the
shown
part
Figure
W,
the
(JI
[h~
in [lx>
n}oli{
i(s aigcbrdic
Miller
values,
instability.
classity
lhc
relative
O( soundings w; follows:
Rclalivcly
sFMI bc[wccn
-2 and -6
Slightly
FM I ami
S1 are
slabtc
unstahlc
Modcralciy
FM I lower than -6
of
sign) is (hc
minus
FM I greater than + I
FM]
Values
Lcmpcrit(urc
Posi[ivc
stability:
Strongly
usually
IInstublc
unskrblc
quite
sitniliir.
(occasionally,
ht)wcvcr, significant
dillcrcnccs
when the mois(urc
value at 850 mb is
(~cur
nm M
when
rcprcscnlativc
as
a subsidence
inversion
%50 mb.
more iniorrnalion
atxmI the
mixing
5W-mb
(including
Fawhush
In such a CZSC,[he
observed
by (he T curve.
stahilily
Sublrict
rcmaimler
indicate
10 5(NJ mb.
value (T)
numcriuiil
FM]
is the pressure
the
indicated
O( a surface
is defined
Iimil
adiabats
the isolhcrm
IS much
c(m~par:ll}lt
5-36
ulilil}.
easier,
and
In
ol lhc Showalkr
rnwry
(ascs
is (II
,*Q
100 .
400
Soo
800
700
OFTWCURVE
TRROU13HT
IWMOIWUYEIL
Tw ~on
Tw ATPOINTMcO.7C AvERA@E
THE MOISTLAYCR.
\,
of the Fawbush-Miller
5.24.5.
The Martin
Index (Ml).
devised
by
Martin,
is claimed
sensitive
m low-level
moisture
Dehmce
/3%0 ;:$
-{ /
This stabilily
index,
(o be more
Stablllty
Index (FMI).
5.24.6.
developed
looo
by Fujita,
Index
index (L1 )
as follows:
of an updraft
adiabat intersecting
the
or unsurblc
layer will
lempemlum-sounding
curve al 500 mb past the hcigh[ t)f
maximum mixing ratio. Find the intersection of (his line
with
Procedure:
lhe
maximum
saturation
intersection,
line.
mixing-ratio
rnixing-ralio
Manin
Algchraically
lndcx.
tirough
subsidence inversion,
tic
850-mh
a[
number (including
With
the
From lhis
line
a marked
its tilgcbraic
bw-level
[he rcfcrcncc
sign)
is Ihc
lurtwlcncc
or
Iaycr between
I .6(M) mclcrs
5-.37
of poinl~
hc uwl.
tw[wmcn
to
points in Ihc
algebraic difference
lc\cls,
A(; L.
The
(Iii1(r(nt
(hc surl:lcc
and
5.24.7.
Index
The Model
procedure
forecast limes.
Lifted
Index.
uses variables
The Model
available
Lif[cd
al ini[ial
and
Moishrre
woler.
relative
humidity
m determine
Z5 mb ~~VC
dry adiabatically
adiabatically
the
of (he boundary
to samration
5(K)-mb
(or ftmxast)
5(N)-mb Icrnpemturcs
5.24.8.
as onc similar
the LFM,
then moist
The
resultant
reprcscnls
Aithough
cornputcd
for
index
vaiues
can
be
corrcia(cd
10 a
vaiues
iisted
beiow
work
best. for
the ccntmi
United
Sta[cs in summer,
to a sudacc-based
INDEX
% PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
K<15
i 5 to 20
Zero
20?+
2i to 25
LI.
20-4(MC
40-60%
26 to 30
311035
60-%07C
361040
X()-9()7C
K >40
Nciw 100%
L1.
The KO
5.24.10,
5.24.9.
stations.
to
the prcscncc
iayer;
Index.
The K
Index
is a measure of Lhunderworm
Bureau ~Dcu(sctrs
(o estimate
index.
,V(vlerdicnst)
the poten[iai
The ~crman
crcatcd
Weather
the KO i!(icx
for lhun(icrstorms
in Euroi~.
Potcmial
based on vertical
tcmpcraturc
lapse role,
moisture content of the lower titmosphere, and vertical
extent of the moiw layer. 1( is derived arithmetically
and
poten(ial temperature.
dificrcncc
a plouc~i soun(iing,
between
pnmmctcrizc
X5(hmb
850
the vcrticai
5(X)
tcmpcmturc
point provi(ies
(icw
and
The tcmpcraturc
mb
is
used
Iapsc ralc.
inlorrna(ion
to
Icmpcraturc-(icw
stai~iii[y indices,
The
K() = (eE ffx) + eh 700) _ (9,: 850 +20,: I J)(M))
~
on the moisture
where:
poinl dcprcwion.
OF = equivalent
potential
ternperalurc
500=500mb
700=7(Khnb
!rocedure:
8W=fisOmh
1,000=1 ,(K)Omb.
minus
Wilh
the
greater
favor
K in(i<x,
[bc
lnctusion
be inwrprelcd
Icvel.
No(e:
mountain
The
heavy
(LCL),
tcmpcmturcs
[cmpertiturc
and
convection.
of a deep moist
(FRH 60-78).
The boundary
Procedure;
in FOUS bulletins
better (McNuit
the higher
Iikciib(rnxi
()[
the posi(ivc
[hun(icrst(wm
of air
mil$s
[ypc
numhcr,
>6
(icvtlopm(mt.
(icprcwi(m
thun(ierslonns,
KO INDEX
the
?-6
biases i[ in
~~
und it w{mkf
5-3%
LIKELIHOOD
.~
THUNDERSTORMS
Low
M()(icri][(>
Hi~h
March 1990
Rovhd
5.24.11.
The Thompeon
Index (Tl). TI is used to
he severity of thunderstorms in the Rocky
delennine
VT
%
Mountains.
TI = K1 - L1,
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
kohdted
29 to 32
Few
32
Scatlered
Cruss
CT=
TI
m)
THUNDERSTORM
No Thunderstorms
20-29
Isolated, Weak
30-34
>35
Moderate
Severe
INTENSITY
Totals (CT).
850-mb dew point minus 500-rob temp (C).
The value
represented
low-level
moisture
by CT combines
with
18 before thunderstorm
5.24.12.
Total
arws
of
Totals
(lT).
by Miller
development.
Total
actually
Verlical
T-r=
VT plus (X
= (850-rob
lcmp
potcnlial
Totals
indices:
the
that is,
plus 85fJmb
dew
The
thunderstorm
activity
develops,
Mat value
guarantee that there will be thunderstorm activily.
general
VT
and
orographic
or
where
air
most
mass
thunderstorm
activity
greater
conditional
the
significant
initiate
moisture
thunderstorms
variety,
best
VT
is
no
are of
the
correlates
the greater
Although
of thunderstorm
activity
VT
in one
IT
convection
threshold
considerably
the
with
VT, the
across
the
is 44.
is 50;
Weak
for moderate,
Uniled
Regional
Memoranda
Forecas(crs
States.
Technical
for threshold
AtlachmenLs
or
values applicable
to
a given area.
NOTE:
west,
moislure.
the
low-level
potential
In
development.
earlier,
while CT incorporates
reliable predictor
temp).
activity
of thunderstorm
As mentioned
is
Moist
thunderstorm
alofl.
was introduced
a measure O(
temperatures
Use Total
Cross Totals
Iotak
supporf
with careful
ing low-level
attetiion
to eilhcr
tb
since
it is possible 10
or Jhe low-level
moisture
moisture.
instability.
In the wesl,
at 700 or 500 mb is sufficient
to
thunderstorms.
Significant
moisture,
in this
5.24.13.
SWEAT
Index (SWEAT)
polcmial
five
index.
is used 10 estimate
lerms
thal contribute
is computed
to severe weather
(mm
polcnlial;
al 700 mb.
West of the Rockies,
following
mid-level
the VT thresholds
Iablc generally
moisture
correlate
is
shown
wilh lhundcrs[orms
available.
high vertical
development
Completely
Low-level
Instability
(Tolal Totals)
Low-level
jet (850-rob
Upper-level
Warm wfvcc[ion
in (he
if
dry
5-39
wind speed)
[f Lhc rcporling
tcmpcramm
swim
is higher
used
accepted
by
the
thunderstorms
as [hc
SWEAT
Force
and
SWEAT
index
are
4(X)
12D + 20(T-49)
threshold
usually
for
300
mrnadoes.
vahrcs
for
severe
1[ must
be
SWEAT=
Air
and depression.
Commonly
SWEAT
shows
of
or delini(cly
the
will occur.
polenlial
triggering
for
scvcrc
mechanism
is still
high SWEAT
wrlucs
where:
Expcrierwc
D = fi50-mh dcw point in dcgrccs Celsius (if D is
ncga(ivc, sei the term m zero)
concurrent
potcn[ial
is usually
severe
convective
almmoon
observed
- 850-rob
Totals
tour conditions
is from
is from 210-3100
and mid-level
130-2500
11OW with
dcw
(which
winds
is more
poinl,
T(mil
veering
with
lhan a lypical
hcigbl).
stibilily
The SWEAT
index should nol be used w predict
ordinary
thunderstorms.
Usc of the shear lcrm and
minirnurn values for ihc slabilily (To(als) and wind speed
Lerms were specifically y designed m disc rim intilc hc(wccn
and severe thunderstorms.
5.24.14.
Bulk
Richardson
number
energy within
is lhe
Number
ratio
of
(R).
posi(ivc
The bulk
buoyant
10 one-hall (hc
15 knots.
In (he formu[(l
m(iv he rrej.)(1(1v<).
Applications:
(850-rnh
h(~th
is posilivc
No [trm
information
hcrcforc,
Richardson
N()IE:
those values
index.
ordinary
dirccti(m
occurring,
are
nol met:
high.
Ahhough
h)w
index alrnos[ ccrttiinly
information
SWEAT,
The cnlirc
the
wind
dirccti[m)
T = TouI
wealhcr,
if {he predicted
rcalimd
i[s complexity,
more
dclail,
Simula(ed
Values grca[cr
Tbc
Convcctivc
storms.
Bcctiusc O(
on a compuler.
Dcpcndcnce
Storms
lhan 50 arc
of
on Vertical
For
Nurncrici]ll}
Wind
Shcilr
and Buoyancy,
by M.L. Wcisman
and J,B. Klcmp,
Mc>n[hlv Hc(llh($r Review, June 1986, pp. 514-520.
5-40
.B=g
where
6(z)
detirux
representative
over
the
warmer
vertical
than
Skew T).
(he
surface
~(z)
moist
parcel
interval
its
adiabatic
ascent
environment
the
Iifwd
(positive
of
is taken
pamcl
area
Convective
(he
Gust Potential
Step 1. Multiply
Index:
the 700-rob
Procedure:
Step 2.
Compute
(Ul) by lifting
lower
using
a mean mixing
ralio
the upper-level
Step 3.
computed
Using
the
700-rob
potential
for
strong
Area
gusts
\
Upper
surface
Precipitation,
if any,
virga is common.
Two requircmenLs
winds
seldom
and
dry
lightning.
Graph.
Area
gusls
may occur.
unstable, and
ahx)vc
(onsicicr
3:
N)
thundcrsl(mns
A good measure of Iowcr-level
depression,
is dckm]ined
lndcx,
[Ul)
of
Area
Showaltcr
Index
stability
Stability
(!CW poin(
Level
but
these s(orms:
convcctivcly
the
Area 2
strong,
and
-1
5.24.16.
The Upper-Level
Instability
Index (Ul)
was developed by the NWS Western Region as a simple
the
,LC,)
depression
Areab
Area
assessing
index
of
proceed,
instability
method
is negalive,
for the
indicate
indicate
If the number
the CCL
Procedure:
Compute
Forecast
potential
d-wee and subtract
The Dynamic
parcel at
is
on
temperature profile.
5.24.15
of the lifted
moiwurc
Determination
by a parcel
knots
a mci watch
[br
Ihc
advisory
period
during
for gus(s
which
arc cxpcclc(l.
is the 700-rob
of
upper
index similar
Area 4: Consider
Icvcl
(o (he
a wcalher
10 its L.(1l..
5-41
warning
during
which
values to consider
Thunderstorm
using
when
Thunderstorms
-3 (0 -5
Unstable--thunderstorms
less than -5
Very unsmble--heavy
INDEX (Sl~
Thunderstorm
indices
discussed
Indications
()10 -2
SHOWALTER
possible--good
trigger mechanism
needed
probable
m strong thunderstorm
potential
Indlcatlons
3 to I
Thunderslomn
() 10-3
Unslable--thundcrstorms
-4 to -6
Very unstable--good
less lhan -6
Extremely
possible--s(rong
trigger needed
probable
heavy thunderstorm
unstable--good
po(errtial
strong thunderstorm
potential
I
K INDEX
K INDEX
West of Rocklesl
East of Rockies2
Alrrnass
less than 20
None
I 51020
20 to 25
Isolated thunderstorms
21 [() 2s
261030
Widely
26 to 30
31 1035
Scattered thunderstorms
less than 15
above 30
Now:
K Lwluc m(ly
( / ,S LYIIU(.Sdrc fi)rccd
nol
Iw rcprc,wnla[iw)
(O (Jppro rlma(c
of ilirma~~
Thunderstorm
Probabllfty
scattered thunderstorms
Numerous
ahovc 35
in this
lhundcrsmrms
if iY50-ml)
icw[
5-42
i.{ near
surface.
Nc,$krn
<28
291032
Few thunderstorms
>32
Scattered thunderstorms
(TT)l
48
52
Scattered thunderstorms,
55
Scattered thunderstorms,
58
Scattered thundersmrrns,
61
64
Numerous thunderstorms,
severe
Expect :
18-19*
26 or more*
44
20-21
26 or more
46
Scaltered thunderstorms
22-23
26 or more
48
Scattered thunderslorms,isoialcd
severe thunderstorms
26 or more
24-25
50
~(j or more
26-29
52
~~ or more
30
56
Numcrnus
few tornadocs
lhundcrstorms,
iIIIrngk
mncd!
ate [iulf
(wst
and
t>bcr
[hc <iull!itrcarn,
where
5-43
16 ,M m,m,
and
VI
baluc
I. cml,
SUMMARY
lWcs~em
TABLE
REFERENCES
Rcgi{JnaI Technical
Attachlnent
NtJ.84-14,
lWealhe
rService,Strl
tLakeCity,
Utah.
3 Mlllcr,
Foreca,r(
Mc~uhcr
Ccnlral,
Academic
for Acrorrau[i(,\,
and Se vtrc-7tt)rrrt
AWS-TR-200
(,rcviscd),
Forcra.~ting
Air
Weather
Procedure.r
Service,
1960.
SCOU AFB,
IL, May
Glohtd
1972.
5-M
Chapter
ANALYSIS
OF
IN
AND
STABLE
RAOBS
possibilities
for vertical and lateral mixing,
and hence for the diffusion and transport
of
heat, moisture,
aerosols,
and momentum.
Introduction.
The prevailing condition of
the atmosphere
is stable, with stratification
into distinct
layers.
The mean lapse rate,
above the surface
layer
affected
by noc turnal radiation inversions
and daytime surface heating, is near the saturation
adiabatic
up to the mid-troposphere,
above which the
mean lapse rate becomes increasingly
stable
with altitude.
A typical
sounding
in any
region and season
will be stable over the
greater part of its height and the stable parts
will be divided into layers of different degree
of stability.
6.1.
Two properties
of the stability are of interest:
The degree of stability
(as indicated by the
lapse rate) and the discontinuities
of the lapse
rate which mark the boundaries
of each layer
(so-called
laminar)
of different
stability.
of Stable
Layers.
The
6.2. Classification
types of stability
have been described
in
Chapter
5. Stable layers of two kinds were
absolutely
stable
and conditional.
defined:
The absolutely stable layers can be subdivided
into three ~~11- rec~gnized typ$zs: inve?sion2~
layers.
isothermal
, and stable-lapse-
20
The free-air
temperature
normally decreases
with altitude in the troposphere.
However, frequently soundings
show shallow layers where a reversal
of the normal lapse rate occurs and
These layers are called inversions, or
the temperature
increases
with altitude or inverts.
tempevatwe
inversions.
more specifically,
The prime characteristic
of the inversion
is the
great stability of the air within the inversion
layer.
21A layer
through
~*Any stable
inversions).
layer
in which
the temperature
decreases
6--1
with height.
with height
(excludes
isothermal
and
The analysis
of the stable layers cannot be
made independently
of their boundary
discontinuities
(see par. 6.3) even though forecasters
freely shift their attention from layer
to discontimrity
and vice versa as the situation
and problem
at hand may dictate.
Whether one
prefers
to think of an inversion
asa layer or
as a discontinuity
(strictly
speaking, the base
or top of the inversion)
depends on the context and is mainly a difference
in emphasis.
The Unexplained
Discontinuities.
one
in the soundings
many prominent
discontinuities
(as well as many lesser
ones)
that are ignored in conventional analysis, because their significance
has not been obvious
and no acceptable models for their interpretation have been developed.
With the present
spacing of sounding s t a t i o ns and existing
coding procedures,
it is difficult to trace any
time and space continuity
that may exist in
many of the discontinuities
observed
in the
transmitted
sou ndi rigs, unless
they are
obviously
accounted
for by fronts or other
familiar features on synoptic charts.
sees
39 that several
prominent
Note in Figure
discontinuities
in the troposphere
conserve
a similar
shape and intensity
from station
to station while sloping through a great range
in height.
Relating
them to the isentropes
(dry adiabats) on the diagram, one can readily
see that each of t h es e discontinuities
lies
within small limits along a particular
isentrope. The isentropic
cross-section
for the
same soundings shown in Figure 40, reveals
this tendency more clearly.
The thin, solid
lines on the cross-sections
are isolines
of
potential
temperature
drawn for each whole
%. Packing of the isentropes
on a vertical
cross- section indicates
1a y e rs of the atmosphere
which are very stable (the greater
The
the pa:king,
the greater
the stability).
(unexplained
discontinuities,
espeThese
cially when they are widespread
or persistent, may often be of practical
importance
because of their effect on turbulent diffusion
not to mention
errors
and cIoud formation,
in analysis
resulting
fronts,
etc.
from
confusing
them with
The fact
that m a n y of the unexplained
discontlnultles
seen in the regularly
transmitted
soundings
probably
have
a synoptic-scale
extent and history,
IS brou~ht out by researrh
studies
[ 23 ] using a spec Ml detailed
eval uation
and
.~nalysis
of the mobs.
These
great
spatial
extent
of many of these stable
each
associated
with
layers
(laminars),
essentially
the s~me bu[ldlc
of isentropes,
is evident
62
in this
figure.
The accuracy
and
00
100
6S5
645
537
S20
306
N*FWK................
200
A\..,
\,\
,/1-
\
-
300
, ~o
/
400
c)
J&s
0.
500
4G%
&
-600
/0
::mb /.l,,.,o~>?::
Figure
39. Samdlng
19S6 (Danielsm
Curvei
Almg
a Line frcm
23 ] 1.
63
Biwrmrck
\
500
mb
mb
110
Ilo
150
150
200
200
250
250
300
300
400
400
50G
500
60C
600
70C
700
80(
800
90(
900
100(
1000
Verticnl
potential
Imtherms
tempomture
Croes-Sedlm
are
drawn
64
[ 23
11.
-.
spacing
of the isentropes
on this crosssection anaylsis
have been corroborated
by
the constant-pressure
and isentropic
charts,
trajectory
analysis,
and use of thermal-wind
relationships.
Another interesting
feature is
the continuity
of some tropopause
leaves
with discontinuities
reaching
far down into
the troposphere
(see par. 6.10.0).
6.5.
Radiation
Inversions
and Layers.
Noc-
Figure
41.
Nocturml
Radlaticm
Inverslfm
Subsidence
Inversions
and Layers.
A
subsidence
layer is one which has undergone
a general
sinking. In the lower and middle
troposphere,
the sinking
is manifested
by
vertical shrinking associated
with horizontal
divergence,
as discussed in paragraph
5.14.6.
Since widespread
subsidence
is directly involved in the creation
and maintemnce
of
high-pressure
areas,
subsidence
layers
in
some degree are evident in nearly all anticyclones at some stage of their development.
These layers
are apt to be deep and pronounced in the so-called
warm highs, both
in the tropics and mid-latitudes,
in the polar
high-pressure
caps, and in rapidly equatorward- moving polar air masses (cold highs).
6.6.
The subsidence
layer associated
with a subtropical
high cell (example
in Figure 42) is
usually deep and persistent,
and over a given
portion of the cell, especially
in the central
and western parts, the height of the inversion
base is usually nearly constant. However, the
height over a particular
point does vary with
time, due to the passage of migratory
troughs,
easterly
waves,
and the movement
of the
parent high ceil. The subtropical
inversion
lowers and becomes very strong over the cold
waters
off the west coast of the continents.
In the tropics these inversions
are generally
known as trade-wind
inversions.
However,
the term trade-wind
inversion
is also often
used colloquially
to indicate merely a stable
layer associated
with a rapid falling off of
65
,bo
,50
/
,%0
,\ o
I
500
r
:
t
ISOBARS
600
mb
,700
6
a--..
800
,1000
Figur.
42. S&i&?ca
(-Trade-Win&)
Inversltm
Gwr
San Jum,
Pwrto
Ria,,
going conversion
from the cold to the warm
~ype - is often dome shaped, though the inversion tends to be stronger
and lower on the
eastern
side. Such a subsidence
inversion
is
usually highest over the center of the surface
anallobaric
(pressure-rise)
field. As the high
passes
over a given station,
the inversion
base will first be observed to rise and then
lower [ 44 1.
If it lowers
too near the ground, as often
happens
near the periphery
of a high, the
inversion
is likely to be modified or masked
by frontal precipitation
and by such surface
effects as mixing (turbulence),
convection, or
radiation.
Therefore,
in the peripheral
region
it may be especially
difficult to distinguish
the subsidence
inversion
from frontal and
turbulence
inversions
(see pars.
6.7 and
6,9.1).
,500
level mechanical
turbulence.
As a result, the
temperature
lapse rate through the layer becomes
dry-adiabatic,
and an inve r sion
developes at the top of the mixed layer 2J The
turbulent
m i xi n g also a c ts to bring the
moisture
content to a constant value throughout the entire layer. This, in turn, means that
the Td curve for the unsaturated
layer be-
/
/
boo
,0
comes parallel
to the saturation mixing-ratio
lines, that is, the mixing ratio of the turbulently-mixed
layer becomes
constant
with
height.
The relative
humidity is decreased
at the bottom and increased
at the top of the
layer.
700
,4
\
%9_.
SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION
000
1000
Flguro
43. Sub$idonco
Mario,
Michignn.
lnvor$icm
in Polar
Air@ortiult
Sto.
6.7. Turbulence
Inversions
and Layers.
The
movement
of air over an uneven surface
causes turbulence
and vertical mixing. This
mixing, in turn, causes the temperature
lapse
rate through the mixed layer to change toward
the dry adiabatic
(or saturation
adiabatic
if
the moisture
content and depth of the layer
are great enough for the MCL to be reached see par. 4,21), For an initially stable lapse
rate, this means a decrease
in temperature
at the top of the mixed layer and a temperature increase
at its base (i. e., at the surface).
If the origiml
moisture
content of the mixed
layer is sufficiently
high and the mixing deep
enough, saturation will be reached in the upper
portions of the mixed layer. The effect of this
process
on a sounding is shown in Figure 45.
Here the 900- to 850-mb lay e r becomes
saturated
as a result of the turbulent mixing
of the layer between the surface
(1000 mb)
and 850 mb.
From a systematic
point of view, the decision
as to the future formation
of a turbulence inversion
would revolve around an estimate of
the depth of the layer that will mix. The depth
estimate
depends basically
on the expected
wind speed, roughness
of the underlying
terrain, and the original lapse rate in the lower
layers. If the overall initial or expected lapse
rate indicates only slight stability,
turbulent
The process
is illustrated
in Figure 44, which
shows how a sounding would be affected by
surface-frictional
turbulent
m ixi ng in the
simplest
case (no cloud formation,
no convergence,
evaporation,
radiation,
nor advec tion effects).
On this sounding, the layer from the surface
to 850 mb has been thoroughly mixed by low-
2)
If the turbulence
causing such an inversion
is due solely to the roughness
of the ground or
water surface, the inversion
will not be higher than a few thousand feet above the earths surface. When surface
heating becomes
an additional factor the inversion
may be much higher.
High inversions
are not known to occur solely as result of turbulence
within the free air,
but undoubtedly turbulence
helps to accentuate
or diffuse some inversions
and discontiuities
already formed aloft by other processes.
67
,%0
,\o
TO LOCATE
PROPER DRY
,G
$
,%
~o
/ 850
~
BEFORE
TURBULENT
T~
MIXI
AFTER
/
TURBULENT
MIX I
TURBULENT
MIXING
TURBULENT
MIXING
-1000
+
F Iguro
,\o-
44.
Farrnaticm
01a Turbulonca
Invorsia.
850
T BEFORE MIXING
LAYER OF
TURBULENT
MIXING
Flguro
45.
Saturatlm
af a Layer
68
by
Turbulent
Mixing.
Surfaces
and Zones.
The
6.9.0. Frontal
front
separates
two different
air masses
[ 27 1. Each air mass has characteristics
which were acquired in its source region, but
which have been modified through changes
caused by vertical motions, surface temperature influences,
addition of moisture
from
evaporation
of precipitation
falling through
the cold air mass, etc.
Frontal
zones are often difficult to identify
on a plotted sounding.
The reasons for this
will be brought out in the discussions
to follow.
6.9.1. Temperature
Characteristics
of Frontal Zones. The T curve on the plotted sound-
The complications
mentioned above are due to
the fact that turbulent mixing generally occurs
in conjunction
with various other important
atmospheric
processes.
T y p i c a 1 synoptic
combinations
are cited by Petterssen
[ 47 1.
In the common case of warm air moving over
cold ground,
the mean temperature
of the
mixed layer gradually decreases
and the inversion
intensifies
and lowers.
In cold air
moving over a warm surface, the temperature of the mixed layer gradually increasqs,
the inversion
weakens and rises,
and ultimately may be eliminated.
6.8. Convection
Inversions.
Often when the
troposphere
is generally
stable with a conditional lapse rate, vigorous
dry or moist
convection
from
surface
heating
or lowlevel convergence
extends well up into the
stable region with widespread
and continued
overshooting
(see par. 5.1). The overshooting
produces
either a slight inversion
or more
generally
a shallow very stable layer just
b. Vertical
motions w i t h i n the two air
masses distort the original temperature
contrast across
the front, especially in the case
of cold fronts. The vertical motion in the air
69
ISOBARS mb
- Soo
- coo
/
LAPSE
RATE
SMOWINQ
SMOOTHEO
LAPSE RATE~
-700
- 00
/
- Soo
-1000
Fi~ro
46.
Fr~l
Fi~ro
Invorslm.
47.
OthWrwlsO
Eff.ct
of Atmmphwric
Smooth Laps.
Rat.
lnhcm~lty
[ 55
m an
c1
15@oo
.[0000
~ 5,000
<
0
1
200
--
150
~o
50
50
100
MILES
Figure
4S0. Verticoi
Mc41m
and Cl-
Assocloted
6 10
with
on Am front-
25 ] .
perature
contrast
a c r oss
the front is increased,
thus
strengthening
the f r o n t a 1
discontinuity.
Exam p 1es of temperature
soundings
taken t h r o u g h an anafront
and
through a katafront are shown in Figures 48b
and 49b, respectively.
500
600
700
800
-900
Figuro
46b.
T~omturo
Samdng
Throu@
an Amfrmt.
identify
this layer
sidence. However,
through the layer
the dew point, there
indication
of the
layer.
d. The boundaries
of a frontal zone are
frequently
indistinct
because the zone merges
gradually
into the adjacent
air masses.
In
such cases
the T curve changes gradually
from a quasi-isothermal
lapse rate in the
frontal zone to the characteristic
lapse rates
of the air masses.
To determine
with assurance which significant
point of discontinuity
in lapse rate mark the limits of the frontal
zones then becomes difficult or impossible.
An example
of a sounding taken through an
indistinct
frontal zone is shown in Figure 51.
On this sounding,
the frontal zone is most
clearly
evident in the 830- to 780-mb layer,
but the exact frontal-zone
boundaries
(especially the top) are indistinct.
In such cases
[ 27 1 , wind and humidity data, or possibly
a temperature
comparison
with a previous
sounding or with a sounding from a nearby
station, may help to resolve the problem (see
pars. 6.9.2 and 6.9.3). (In practice,
the location of fronts should rest more on the analyses
of the horizontal-temperature
field on t h e
[121
masses
associated
with Bergerons
two common types of cold fronts (see also par.
6.9.5) is shown in Figures
48a and 49a. An
anaflont, a cold front which produces
a
widespread
band of weather (see Figure 48a),
is associated
with downslope
motion (subsidence and divergence)
of the cold air and
widespread
upslope motion in the overrunning
warm air. This process
serves to decrease
the temperature
contrast
across
the front,
thus weakening the frontal discontinuity.
How(warming)
takes
ever, wh e n condensation
place in the warm air mass and there is
evaporation
of rain falling (cooling) through
the cold air, the contrast
across
the front
is likely to be maintained
or increased.
A
katafront,
a cold front which is characterized by a narrow weather
band (see Figure
49a), is associated
with downslope motion in
the warm air over the higher reaches of the
frontal surface.
T he descending
warm air
mass is warmed adiabatically,
and the tem 611
15,000
!lla
-.
G-u
5QO0
2300
t4A3
>
-----07
a) ---
Ac,
-., ~\
/+,--
,,
j~
0
,
i
100
150
200
Flguro
4%.
Vertlml
M otl
50
MILES
on
ond Clads
&
50
100
Associated
with a Katafrmt
25
1.
,%0
/y
,+
,,0
.-
&l
-500
~y
....+
,%
ISOBARS
mb
600
o
/y
/
.700
The 10 w e r frontal-zone
boundary
on the
sounding
of Figure 51 shows the influence
of surface
effects;
nocturnal
radiation
had
produced a surface inversion, which was being
wiped out in the 850- to 1000-mb layer. The
remains of the radiation inversion persist and
mask the bottom of the frontal zone. Here
again, a subjective
if not arbitrary
judgment
is required
the analyst must select the
significant
point which he believes
is most
representative
of the change from pure airmass to transition-zone
lapse rate. In this
case, 860 mb is probably
the best estimate
because this level separates
two layers having
F$
800
FRONT
,0
-900
-1000
Fi guro
6 12
49b.
Tewemture
Sam61ng
Thro@
a Kotofrmt.
L.
.400
,
regularly
following
@o
observed,
effects:
however,
because
of the
b.
out,
slope
past
then
600
warm air.
c. The underlying
cold air often acquires
moisture
rapidly through evaporation
from a
water surface,
such as the Great Lakes, and
also through evaporation
from wet ground or
of rain failing from the warm air mass above.
700
w
100
SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION
)00
1000
/
Fi~
SO. FrmWl
and S@!61dmc6
lnv6rslonc.
semi-constant
lapse rates,
viz., the layers
from 950 to 860 mb, and from 860 to 780 mb.
6.9.2. I-hmldlty
Characteristics
Zones. The relative-humidity
of Frontal
curve through
a front would, of course,
show a saturation
or near-saturation
where there is a frontalcloud layer (see Chapter
7), but otherwise
there may be no consistent
indication of the
front in the relative
humidity.
The mixing
ratio, T ~, or Tw curve, however, often has a
characteristic
behavior.
In an ideal case, the
Td curve through
the frontal zone will show
613
400
,$
/.
\
,%0
\
\
6.9.4.
Thermal-Wind
Indications
of Frontal
The magnitude
of the thermal
wind
for a layer
indicates
the strength
of the
horizontal
gradient of the mean temperature
of the layer. Since a frontal
zone defines a
layer of maximum horizcmtal thermal gradii zone of maximum
ient, it also represents
thermal
wind. Furthermcn-e,
since the thermal wind blows parallel
to the mean-temperature
isotherms
for the layer (with cold
air to the left), the direction
of the thermal
wind vector will be roughly representative
of
the directional
orientation
of the front. The
winds- aloft for the sounding shown in Figure 55 are seen plotted as a hodograph
in
Figure 56. The thermal wind is indicated by
the shear
vector comecting
the wind vectors for the base and top of each layer.
Zones.
500
600
/
,fl-/,,?
4
700
800
900
.
,0
/
1000
Fl~o
S1. $amdng
Showing
Indatlnct
Frmtol-Zam
~rlos.
6.9.5.
Wind Distribution
Dynamical
Characteristics
Sansom
[ 53 ] , in an investigation
of cold
fronts over the British Isles, found a definite
relationship
between the variation of wind with
height through a cold frontal z o n e and the
weather characteristics
associated
with the
front at the surface.
He classified most of the
cold fronts
into Bergerons
two types (the
lapse-rate
indications
for which were noted in
par. 6,9.1), and listed the definitive upperwind characteristics
of each.
are assc~ciated
with widea. Amzfwnts
spread, heavy rain at the lime of frontal passage, and with steady rain continuing for some
time be hi nd the front. The cloudiness
resembles
that of a warm front in reverse
and
clears
slowly after frontal passage.
Upperwind variations
through an anafront
are as
follows:
Variations
Through
Frontal
6.9.3. W ind
ZOneS. Because the analysis of the verticalwind profile through the front is an important
and often necessary
adjunct to raob analysis
in locating fronts, it is desirable
to discuss
the subject here.
The classical
picture
of the variation of the
wind along a vertical through a frontal zone
is shown in Figure 54. Through a cold front,
the wind backs with height; through a warm
front, the wind veers
with height. On the
Skew-T Chart shown in Figure 55, the plotted
upper winds (above the surface layer) which
show the greatest
variation are those for the
800- to 650-mb layer. This indication coincides closely with the frontal indications
of
Since the wind veers
the T and Td curves.
614
._
Flguro
52. Frmtal-Zcna
Indlmtltyu
from
parallel
tlw Dow-Pdnt
The wind
ceeds the
above the
(3)
400 mb is
30 degrees
Curw.
normal and
with height.
component normal to the front exmean speed of the front at all levels
lowest layers.
The thermal
wind between 950 and
inclined at an average angle of about
to the front.
100
200
300
MILES
400
500
FIWO
53. Vortlcnl
Crms-Swctla(Sowyar
[ 56 ] )Indcotlng
tho Dry 1In a Warm- Frontol
Crms-8mtlm
Is qproxlmatoly
normol to thw frmt.
Thick solid limo ore tirios
of thx frmtal
Thin solld Ilnos or.
Icqlti
of dow-pdnt
~rwwsim
In C. Shaded orwa Indcwtas
main fwaturcx
frmtnl
clad.
Vortlml
Imtctdng Indatos
prwcipltotlm
odslda
of tha cloud.
6 16
ZmW.
xorw.
of thw
and katafronts.
The average angles between
the surface fronts and the associated
warmsector winds at 700 and 500 mb are shown in
Table 2.
TABLE 2
N
fi~(0(
~%>:,
+
SE
cf;:
WARN AIR
\\
\
DlstrlWmsaf
of Fmmal
,/ /
, -C:$D
Wind
01 roctl
on
in
the
SWAICOS
,%0
\\
WI
,%0
~soo>
-.
/
Ill,
)(
600
--650
---
b
J/
ZONE
1/
z5!?iY900
Fl~ro
55. Dlotrl
617
Thra@
a Frmtal
ZaIO.
00
/
/
//
/
0
/
//
,/
--=
LI
/#
//
-+
/-
\
\
9
*O \
-\9\
\\
;
1////
Ii
7900
I
27
II
I
I
\
.//
/
\\
\
,(
/
_
I
\\
%-
,/
p_.
--
180
Fi~a
S&
Hodagrqh
01 Obcorvod
and Thornml
6.10.0. Tropopauses.
Although the concept of
a tropopause
has been generally
accepted
for many years,
there is still no agreement
on how to apply the concept
to synoptic
analysis.
Historically,
the word was coined
when the stratosphere
was discovered,
to
describe the apparent boundary
which separated the troposphere
from the stratosphere.
The scattered
early soundings
led meteorologists
to believe that the tropopause
was
618
Wlnda
for Samdng
01 Flguro
55.
of temperature
with height.
at the respective
end points
The ave?age lupse rate is the difference between the temperatures
of the lapse-rate
variations
in the layer between
divided by the height interval , irrespective
the end points.
2GANhigher altitudes
means that no point on the sounding in the two- (one-) kilometer
above the lowest height can fall to the left of the 2 C/km (3C/km) line extending
lowest height.
619
interval
from the
kilometers
tropopause
kilometer
lapse rate (see Footnote 26). Thus,
the conventional
tropopause
is established
at
Point B of the sounding.
hopo@4se.
T h e r e also is a possibility
of a second
tropopause
at Point D. To find out, criterion
b is used. This criterion
requires
a onekilometer
layer with a lapse rate greater than
3C/km below the second tropopause
height.
This requirement
is met through the layer
CD, and in this particular
case, qualifying
remark
c(3) applies also. When criterion
b is met, then criterion
a is again used
to determine
the location of a higher tropopause. Above Point D, the lapse rate DE again
decreases
to less than 2C/km for the next
two higher kilometers.
Thus, a second tropopause is determined
at Point D.
of the
Tropopause.
A
6.10.2. Character
special
code for the character
of the tropopause (symbol St) has also been adopte,dby the
should
interval
be determined
when using the
b. If the conventional
tropopause
does not
coincide with any marked change in lapse rate
and a marked change of lapse rate occurs
at heights
both above and below the conventional tropopause,
then the larger of these
changes should be used to determine whether
code figure 5 or 6 is appropriate.
Figure 57 illustrates
how to apply the WMO
tropopause
definition to a sounding. The conventional tropopause
is defined by criterion
a of the definition.
This criterion
is satisfied above Point B of Figure 57. That is, the
average
lapse rate between Points B and D,
the next two higher kilometers
above Point B,
is less than 2C/km for all points of the two-
620
c. W h e n the conventional
tropopause
is
best characterized
by code figure 6 in arctic
and anuirctic
regions in winter, a special case
exists. Then the height of the marked change
in lapse rate below the mnventional
tropopause should be referred
to as an arctic or
antarctic
tropopause
and recorded as such.
1 km
LAPSE
RATE = 2C/km~
I km
_ __
,0
7
I km
CONVENTIONAL
TROPOPAUSE
200
I km
/
,%0
7
ISOBARS /MB
/
Flguro
57. Trqqausa
Dotermlmtlmo
250
If this occurs,
the character
of the arctic
or antarctic
tropopause
should be given by
code figure 9.
The determination
of the character
of the
tropopause
is rather
straighfforward.
For
example,
in Figure 57 the character
of the
conventional
tropopause
at Point B is established
by noting the lapse rate for the
one-kilometer
layer above and below it. Above
Point B, the lapse rate is less than OC for
a one-kilometer
layer, while below Point B
TABLE
S+- CHARACTER
CODE
FIGURE
OF THE TROPOPAUSE
CODE FIGURE
DESCRIPTION
1.
CONVENTIONAL
2.
LAPSE
RATE
ABOVE
TROPOPAUSE
LAPSE
RATE
BELOW
TROPOPAUSE
LAPSE
RATE
ABOVE
TROPOPAUSE
>
WC/km
LAPSE
RATE
BELOW
TROPOPAUSE
,
>
5C/km
LAPSE
RATE
ABOVE
TROPOPAUSE
<
OC/km
Tk
TROPOPAUSE
COINCIDES WITH
A
3.
MARKED
CHANGE
<
IN
LAPSE
RATE
4.
d
5?
LAPSE
RATE
BELOW
TROPOPAUSE
<
5C/km
LAPSE
RATE
ABOVE
TROPOPAUSE
>
OC/km
LAPE
.
RATE
BELOW
TROPOPAUSE
<
hUT
RATE
MARKED
>
3C/km
HEIGHT
CONVENTIONAL
DOES
NOT
WITH
ANY
BUT
COINCIDE
LAPSE
7.
ABOVE
>
HEIGHT
RATE
AND
LAPSE
AT
CONVENTIONAL
CHANGE
3C/km
IN
OCCURS
BELOW
THE
NO MARKED
LAPSE
AT
8.
THE
LAPSE
AT
CONVENTIONAL
TROPOPAUSE;
IN
OCCURS
A MARKED
RATE
MARKED
CHANGE
IN
TROPOPAUSE
TROPOPAUSE
6.
CHANGE
Soc,km
~<
RATE
ANY
OTHER
CHANGE
>
3C/km
OF
OCCURS
HEIGHT.
[
HEIGHT
LESS
OF
THAN
TROPOPAUSE
2km
UNCERTAIN
ABOVE
THE
HEIGHT
BECAUSE
TOP
OF
WHICH
APPEARS
ASCENT
TO
BE
IS
THE
TROPOPAUSE.
9.
TROPOPAUSE
IS
NOT
ALLOCATED
6 22
TO
ANY
OF
PRECEDING
CATEGORIES.
the lapse
kilometer
rate is greater
than 5C for a onelayer. Thus, the character
of the
conventional
tropopause
is p r o p e r 1y described by code figure 1 of the table.
623
Chapter
ANALYSIS
OF
CLOUDS
WITH
AID
OF
RAOBS
b. At nighttime,
reports of middle and high
clouds
(height, amount, and type) are less
reliable than in daytime.
c. Cloud systems which have portions extending above 15,000 feet are us u a 11 y associated
with frontal
systems
and/or
mid-tropospheric
troughs
and lows. Their
central portions frequently have precipitation
falling out of them, accompanied
by abundant
low clouds;
here we usually get no direct
information
about how high the clouds extend.
Only in the fringe area of the cloud systems,
where the middle and high clouds often extend
beyond the low clouds, are the middle and
high clouds directly accessible
to observation
from the ground.
d. Tops of convective
clouds are not reported either,
except from a casual aircraft
or r a da r observation.
However,
from the
types of clouds reported
and from the type
and intensity of the precipitation
falling from
them, a rough estimate of tops can be obtained
in many cases.
Knowledge of the local or
regional
weather
regime
is important,
of
course,
for this es t i ma t e. For example,
Radiosondes
which penetrate
cloud-systems
reflect
to some extent (p+imarily in the humidity
trace)
the vertical
distribution
of
clouds. If the humidity element were perfect,
there would usually be no difficulties
in locating cloud layers
penetrated
by the sonde.
Because
of shortcomings
in the instrument,
however,
the relationship
between indicated
humidity and cloud is far from definite, and
an empirical
interpretation
is necessary.
radiosonde
reports
give
Nevertheless,
valuable
evidence
which, when sifted with
other available
information,
aids greatly in
determining
a coherent
picture
at least of
7 1
stratiform
and frontal
cloud distributions.
Their value in judging air-mass
cumulus and
cumulonimbus
distribution
is negligible, however.
A wealth of
7.2.0 F rental
Cloud Structure.
experience
regarding
cloud structures
of
fronts has been collected by meteorologists
engaged
in aviation
forecasting,
mainly
through
debriefing
of flight crews.
Very
little of this experience
has been summarized and presented
in the form of scientific
papers,
although
the consensus
appears
to
be that frontal cloud is usually layered, that
the high cloud is usually detached from the
middle cloud, and that middle cloud is often
well layered and many times does not extend
very high [ 19 1 .
The authors
[ 57 ] attempted
to correlate
the thickness
of the cloud mass inactive warm
fronts with the following quantities:
a. Slope of warm boundary.
b. Thickness
of frontal zone.
c, Horizontal
gradient
of potential
wet-
bulb temperature.
d. Change of geostrophic
wind across the
surface front.
e. Six-hour
change
of parameter
(d.
f. Change (across the front) of wind component parallel
to surface front.
g. Change (across the front) of wind comImn,-nt normal to surface front.
Parameters
a through f showed no correlation
with frontal
cloud but g gave a
slight correlation,
Y = 0.16.
7.2.2. Cold Fronts.
Cold fronts
appear
to
be just as elusive as warm frorts
when it
comes to pinning down the weather xctivity
at the front by parameters
that would characterize
the front
on the synoptic
chart
(other than the weather itself),
Austin and Blackmer[
5 1investigated
by
radar
the precipitation
patterns
associated
with warm-season
cold fronts passing Boston,
Mass,,
(30 cases).
The fronts were divided
into four main types, primarily
according
to
their orientation.
Other characteristics
chosen to describe
the fronts synoptically
were:
The probability
of en7.2.1. Warm Fronts.
countering
cloud at any point in the region
of an activ[ warm front IS shown in Figure
59, which IS based on data published
by
a. 700-mb
the front.
7 2
temperature
contrast
across
-.
b. Algebraic
difference
between
2-hour
sea-level
pressure
tendencies
before and
after f rental passage.
c. 700-mb wind speed and direction
immediately ahead of a front.
d. Stability of the warm air (850-mb
perature
minus 500-mb temperature).
tem-
e. Potential
stability of the warm air (850mb minus 500-mb wet-bulb potential temperature).
f. 850-mb
dew-point
depression
in the
warm air.
1016
g, Thermal
adve c t ion,
expressed
as
where k is the
xv
500 mb
850 mb
vertical unit vector
in the warm air.
k.V
1024
H=
FipJro
lilts
ura
S&.
Swim
Indmtuwtid
53.
Clnrt,
k=
1=5=--2/-,A
1
The precipitation
areas, as they appeared on
the radar scope, could be described as having
three different
structures:
Isolated showers,
bands, or masses.
The distribution
of these
structures
with respect to the front is given
in Table 4. The highest frequency
(23 out of
30 cases) is attached to no postfrontal
precipitation. The next highest is attached
to
frontal
and prefrontal
bands ofprethe classical
cipitation. Table 4 confirms
picture
of the cloudiness
extending in bands
along or ahead of the cold front and usually
breaking
up behind the cold front, but it also
points out that isolated showers occur nearly
as frequently
at, ahead of, and behind the
front.
The absence of postfrontal
bands is
particularly
significant.
Table 5 gives the frequency of occurrence
of
precipitation
as prefrontal,
frontal,
postfrontal, or combinations
thereof, irrespective
of structure.
We notice the high incidence
(30%) of frontal and prefrontal
precipitation.
Fl@w.
56b.
500-mb
Chart,
1~
GMT,
19 March
1952.
-.
TABLE
Structure
Mass.
of Precipitation
Areas
Associated
with April-September
Cold Fronts
Near
Boston,
Number
of Cases
Pref rental
Postfrontal
13
22
Masses
13
Showers
17
None
23
-.
Total
30
30
Frontal
Bands
TABLE
Percentage
30 Fronts,
of Cold Fronts
April-September,
30
Total
Distribution
(irrespective
of structure),
Percentage
Frontal
13
Only
Prefrontal
23
Only
Only
Frontal
and Prefrontal
30
Frontal
and Postfrontal
13
Postfrontal
Prefrontal
Frontal,
and Posffrontal
Prefrontal,
10
and Postfrontal
raobs,
rather
than forming
picture of weather associated
line on the chart. It is evident
spaced at 100 to 200 miles
a misleading impressional
to
depending
cloud distribution,
raobs happened to penetrate
or a thin area.
a stereotyped
with the blue
that the raobs
can easily give
the cold-frontal
on whether the
a band or cell
7 4
TI+SOS
OF FT
SURFACE
FRONT
,.4
Fi@ra
S9. Fro~cy
of Cloud Occurrcna
England (SawyoF and Dinstilo
[ 57 ] ).
(In porwnt
prcht411ty)
it extended,
on the average,
warm fronts;
down to 700 mb in cold fronts and 800 mb
in warm fronts.
In about half of the number of fronts,
the driest
air was found
within the frontal zone itself; on occasions,
it was found on both the cold and the warm
sides of the zone. About half of the flights
showed a sharp transition
from moist to dry
air, and the change in frost point on these
flights averaged about 20C in 35 miles. Some
flights gave changes of more than 20C in 20
miles.
As a frontal cloud deck
dew-point depression
(or
sion) starts
diminishing
vicinity of the cloud (see
away than 10 to 15 miles
In Adlva
Warm
Fronts
&or
So@bm
variation
was much less, and it was less
systematic.
This fact should be borne in mind
when attempting
to locate the edge of a clrnlrl
deck irom
raob humidity
data (at 500 mb,
for instance).
Linear extrapolation
or interpolation of dew-point
depressions
cannot be
expected to yield good results.
For instance,
when one station shows a dew-point depression of 10C and the neighboring station shows
saturation,
the frontal cloud may be anywhere
between them, except within about 10 miles
from the driest station. Figure 60 points out
an advantage
as well. Since frontal cloud
masses
at mid-tropospheric
levels are usually surrounded
by relatively
dry air, it is
is approached,
the
frost-point
depresrapidly in the close
Figure 60). Farther
from the cloud the
possible
to locate
-.
(--
--1
0
B a.m.
-t
-R
TCMPERAIWE
MtWs ;=
AT CLOW C=
~mPO# AWAY
-3
In the majority
(87%) of cases when drizzle
occurred,
it fell from clouds whose cloud-top
temperatures
were warmer
than - 5~, and
which were, consequently,
unlikely to contain
ice crystals.
-e
-6
Fl~o
Frost
Cl-as
60. Avam~
HarlamM Varlatia
of T~araturo
and
Pdnt
In ttta Ckd-FrOO
Alr In ttm Vldtity
of f-l
a Ftimofti
Dlatarta
fran tha Cloud EdSO(Saw-
rar [5611.
neighboring
soundi~s,
even
if the humidity
This is so because the typical change of dew-point depression is going from the cloud edge toa distance
of 10 to 15 miles or more into cloud-free
air is considerably
greater
than the average
error
in the reported dew-point depression.
data
accurate.
7.3. Te~erature
of the Cloud
dition for Type of Pfecipitation.
T@ asa
The frequency
of rain or snow increased
markedly
when the cloud- top temperature
rain or
fell below - 12C. When continuous
snow fell, the temperature
in the coldest part
of the cloud was below -12C in 95% of the
cases (41/43) and below -20C in 84% of the
cases (36/43).
Intermittent
rain also was mostly associated
with cold cloud tops, though cloud- top temperature
above -12C were somewhat more
frequent
with intermittent
rain than with
continuous
rain. When intermittent
rain was
reported at the ground, the cloud-top temperin 81% of the cases
ature was below -12~
(46/57) and below -20~ in 63%J of the cases
(36/57). From this, it appears that when ?mn
@n-
The
coalescence
process
may account for most of
the precipitation
which falls in the tropics
a n d sub-tropics;
the Bergeron- Findeisen
theory,
on the other hand, applies to most
of the precipitation
occurring
in middle
and high latitudes
(in winter, at least). Whenever moderate
or heavy rain falls in the
temperature
or arctic regions, it origimtes
mainly in clouds that, in the upper portions
at least,
reach negative Celsius
temperatures.
or snow
reaches
- continuous or intermittent
the ground from stratijiwrn
the clouds,
cases
below
solid
to heights
OY layered,
where
the
extend
clouds,
in most
temperature
is
This statement
cannot, of course, be reversed. When no rain or snow is observedat
the
ground, middle cloud may well be present in
regions where the temperature
is below -12C
or -20C. Whether precipitation
reaches the
ground or not will depend on the cloud thickness, the height of the cloud base, and on the
dryness of the air below the base.
76
Inferring
Clouds from Raobs.
Theoretically,
we should
be able to infer from
the radiosonde
observations
of temperature
and humidity
the layers
where the sonde
penetrated
cloud layers. In practice,
however,
we find that the determinations
we can make
from the T and Td curves are often less
7.4.
7.5.0.
midity
Systematic
Elements.
Errors
T he
in Radiosonde
great
majority
Huof
humidity elements
used in U.S. radiosondes
are the carbon-impregnated
plastic elements,
ML-476/AMT.
A limited number of sondes
with the old lithium-chloride-coated
plastic
element ML-418/AMT-4
are still being used
by the U.S. Navy and some foreign countries.
The readings
of this element tend to be too
low.
7.5.1. Characteristics
of the U.S. LithiumChloride
Coated
Humidity
E Iement. Three
characteristics
of this humidity
element
combine
to make the indicated
relative
at times appreciably
humidity
differ
from the true (ambient) value.
a. The element
has a variable
time lag;
i.e., a period of time must elapse before the
element can adjust itself to the changing temperature
and humidity
in its surroundings.
This adjustment
is supposed
to obey an exponential
law, but the constants
themselves
in this exponential
expression
depend on the
rate of change of both the temperature
and
the humidity.
In practice,
therefore,
it is
difficult
to apply any corrections
for this
time lag except in a qualitative
reamer.
It
has been found experimentally
that the time
lag of this element can vary from 10 seconds
to about 165 seconds.
Also, the time lag, in
general, increases
with decreasing
temperaThe
lag
is
largest
when the
ture [ 62 1.
element
ascends
from warm dry air into
colder,
moister
air (this is usually the case
when a radiosonde
enters a more ml~ist layer
7 7
Characteristics
pregnated
Plastic
of t h e Carbon-imHumidity
Element.
The
ML- 476/AMT
humidity
element
is used in
the AN/AMT-4(
), AN/AMT- 12, and AN/
AMQ-9 radiosondes,
and in the AN/AMT-6
) and AN/AMT-13
radio_sondes
(dropsondes). The characteristics
of this element
are as follows:
a. The resistance
of the element
varies
inversely
with humidity changes of the atmosphere. The resistance
ratio versus relative
humidity characteristic
of the ML- 476/AMT
at 33%
is based on an absolute
resistance
relative humidity and a temperature
of +25C.
b. A limiting factor in making humidity
measurements
with this element
is the fact
that the time constant increases
exponentially
w i t h decreasing
temperatures;
humidity
values are unusable at temperatures
colder
tt@ - 40C. The military
specifications
for
the ML-476/AMT
require
that 63% of the
total change in resistance
of the element
induced by a change in humidity from 20
5% to 90 *5% shall occur in less than
2 seconds
at +40C and in less than 2
minutes at -40C.
(
The accuracies
of the ML-476/AMT
stated in the military
specifications):
are (as
T >()C, * 5%
0C~T~-400C,
* 1~
T <- 400C, questionable.
Characteristics
E Iements.
The tests
of
Other
\
TD = DEW
Tr
MORE
POINT
FROST
pOINT
/
EXACT
CURVE
\
\
~~
-s0
-40
-30
To
Figura61.
Fmctlm
Dlffarwncw
Of ti
hW
$dwoon
-20
-lo
OCEL!;l US
Frost
Pd~
as a
Pdnt.
Humidity
made several
years
ago at Payerne under WMO auspices indicated
that most foreign radiosondes
gave humidity
readings
which were acceptably
compatible
__
practically
saturated
with respect
to the
water
surface
of the droplets.
Minor discrepancies
may occur when the cloud is not
in an equilibrium
state (e.g., when the cloud
is dissolving
or forming
rapidly,
or when
precipitation
is falling through the cloud with
raindrops
of slightly different temperatures
than the air),
but these discrepancies
are
theoretically
small.
In the subfreezing
part
of a cloud, the true temperature
will be somewhere between
the true dew point and the
true frost point, depending on the ratio between the quantities
of frozen and liquid cloud
particles.
If the cloud consists
entirely
of
supercooled
water droplets,
the true temperature
and the true dew point will, more
or less, coincide. If the cloud consists entirely of ice, the temperature
should coincide
with the frost point. We cannot, therefore,
look for the coincidence
of dew points and
temperatures
as a criterion
for clouds at
subfreezing
temperatures,
even if the humidity element had no systematic
errors
of the
nature discussed
in paragraph
7.5.0. At temperatures
below -12C, the temperature
is
more likely to coincide with the frost point
than with the dew point. The graph shown in
Figure 61 indicates
that the difference
(Td
-
Tf)
between
point increases
roughly 1C for every 10C
that the dew point is below freezing;
e.g.,
T
= -9C; when
when Td = -10C,
d
f
T
= -18C; when
- -20C,
Td = -30C,
= -27C;
difference
increases.
The effects of these
physical
characteristics
serve to reinforce
the effects
of the systematic
faults of the
humidity element itself (lag, polarization,
and
washout);
i.e., they all conspire
to make a
radiosonde
ascending
through such a cloud
indicate
increasing
dew-point
depressions.
Any attempt to determine
the heights of cloud
layers from the humidity
data of a raob is,
therefore,
subject to errors
from these effects.
N is possible
to overcome
some of
these errors
by a subjective
interpretation
of the raobs, as discussed
in the following
paragraphs.
7.7. Examples
with Respect
of Dew-Point
of Interpretation
of Raob
to Cloud
Layers,
in Terms
Depression.
Various Skew-T
and
Td
, respectively.
ATM ALT
[THSD FT:
4no
23-
2221-
2 I ,000
//
201918-
171615141312tl lo987-
WASH INGTON,
654 -
3-
4 APR
1957
D.C.
152
/
moBASE
CLOUD:
5900
TOP
5000
21000
2I 0 -1 L
Fiawe
62a. Samtitw
in Marked
Warm
Front,
TWO Cloud Layere lndlcnt4d.
A marked worm front Ie ~prwching
frmn the ;Outh. Mtimte,
continuous
rain fell two houre later. At 18302 an aircmft
rqmrtod
solid claud fran 1000 to 44,Mt0 feet (trqqause).
The 152 wxmding chaws an Increming
dew-pdnt
dqres sim with height, with no discontinuity
at the reported
clad
tq at 15,000 feet. A cbflnltely
dry foyer Is lndicnted
between 18,300 and 20,000 feet. The seund
reportod
cloud Ioyer is Indicotod
by a decrmse
in
dew-pdnt
deprescim.
but the hunldity
elememt obviously
is slow in reepmding.
Ttw *w-pdnt
depreselon
at the base of tlw cicmd at 21,000 feet is 14c and at 400 mb ofter aba@ a 3-mlrnAe
climb through cloud Is
still
10C. Frun
the somding
we should trove Inferred
cloud frun aba@ _
fo@ (base of rx@d funidity
increase)
to S00 mb and a sacred
layer frcrn 20,000 feet W. In view of the rqid
fl Illng of the cloud-free
gap between 15,000 and 21,000 feet which followed as the worm frmt
approached,
the agroomerrt
botweon
rswwted
and inferred
cmditiuw
is gcmd.
7 10
ATM ALT
(THsO FTI
23-
22-
21201918-
17161514131211lo-
lrE/J;;n/
/
e30
/\
H
4
~L-JIJD:
//
TOP
BASE
16,100
33
62(
1)
-1000
17,100
152
+7
120
f
0
-1
Fi~ra
North
Using
0/
f
62b. Cold Frmt with Cloud Layer Thlmer Ttnn Indmted by Satmdlng. A cold frmt lay E-Wacnms
OakcAw at 1S2. The rqorted
cloud byor was much thimer
tlmn would h Inforrod
fr@n the oomdng.
ttu rub
ttut a cloud -s.
Is Indatod
by a folrly
mpld decrmce
In dew-point
doprosslon
to a dew-
point depromlm
Of 6T ar less, we should put the tuse swnewhere
between 12,100 and 14,900 feet. SlmilarIy, we shmddlmva
expected
tlw claudtoextendto
19,3C0 feet wlwe
the dew-pdnt
depression
starts
Increasing
again. The surticerepart
placwc the bmeat
12,000 feet. It Ispaeslble
tbt thedifferenca
Inepace
and time between thealrcmft
and the smde moyaccamt
for th4 dl$crepancy.
~ th twO pCN*i~litlOc,
t2,1~
and 14,9W feet, we stm.ddchaaae
tha Iattaras
base height. If a decrease
Indew-pdnt
depreaslm
is fallowed
by a much stringer
*creoce.
dWO10 thO hoisM Of th
hose ~ t~
stra~r
~crm~e
a$ b
cl~-kse
hiight.
711
ATM ALT
(THSD FTI
4UO:
\
23-
22-
--
21-
20-
19
500
le -
1
t
t
I
/
g
17-
161
\
15-
14-
600
15,
t
t
I
I
13-
12-
11-
lo-
,*Q
/
700
/
0--
9-
8 7 -
MIS:A
65-
43 2-
0
-11
850
<.
CLOUD
\
TOP
B&WE
33,700 (TROPQ) \
15,700
~SOME LOW CLOUD
p
\
::
242
20 +0. /
1000f
/
J13 #
o
/
/
PITTSBURGH,
PA.
31 DEC 1955 152
p
/
Fiwo
62c. Mlddlo-Clcud
Layer with No Procipitatim
Reacting
the Surface. TN8 Is a ase of cloud in the
500-mb surbace with no prulpltatlcm
reacting
the surkx.e;
the nearest mln at ttm time was In Temesswe.
The wl&n@
frm
the mudng
far p@ting tti cloud ku80 at 12,200 feat Is string,
yet the base is lnexPll mbly
r OP or tad at 15,700 feet. The r~arted
cloud base of 1S,700 was protably
not rqresontative,
sinew
altoetratue,
with txmes 1I ,000 to 14,000 feet, was rqmrted
at most stwticm
over Ohio nd West Vi rglnia.
7 12
ATM
A1.T
(THSD FTI
2322212019181716Is 14 -
13 12 -
II -
109 -
87-
PORTLAND,
ORE
3 DEC 1954 15Z
65-
CLOUD:
950
TOP
6,000
Io,ooo
BASE
4,000
6,500
43-
~4.000
&
2y
39
M 159
37 v-8
1-
0-1-
1000
/
p
t-
/
/
I
0
lntermedate
Clrnr
Layorsti
Stmwlng in Himldty
TracO. Tbra
Is
The clear
layer tatween 60W and 6S00 toot
and ttmaircmft
rqmrt.
clear Iayemas
well as thin clad
layers USUIIY camot he reca@xed
7 13
ATM
lTtiSD
ALT
FT)
23-
-.
22-
21-
201918-
17-
16-
15-
14-
1312-
11lo-
9-
87-
PORTLAkD,
ORE
17 JAN 1955 152
65-
050
4-
10,000
AsL0D3:Yoo*
-.
3-
2-
74.]
36 v
>
$
1
142
38
1-
-1
)!\\
-17
40
1000
o
t.
I
o
,
//
0
/
Flare
62w. DLayer of Cloud from Lowor Lovds
10 Trcpq+mmo
with Somx Clmr
Laywx
nd Rovowlwd
by-kamdng.
Thwro i.clcd
frcm @OO fwwt to tfu tr~two,
with tfrx xqtlan
of atx+ufflodclwar
bywr
betwxwn tfrx tqaf
ttro Iowdmtoamulu
and thx bm. of thx middl. clad at IO,U *.
Fran tha .wtdng.
any Ioywrlng, and tfu~w-pdti
dxpmdon
Is 4t to 6Y tfrroughaS
tfnxouWnO.
ther. IS Ilttlo Indatlmof
TN.
_hrc
wmdng
IB t@cwl
(300-mb
of adld
tqomturo
or rnr-solld
a~
cloud
from
-wY).
7 14
thx surticw
to grat
hxl@x
In rnadxrwWfy
celd
ATM ALT
(THSD FT
2322212019la-
/
..
18,900
\
\
.soq~ \
17161514-
,/
600
~\
131211lo-
9a7-
PORTLAND,ORE
I FEB 1955 15Z
65-
860
CLOUD:
43-
TOP
24,900
21-
BASE
18,900
(TROPOPAUSE)
41 6U176
7490 -~<
35
J.
1;
\yf
0-1 ~
Fl~r@
62f. This Satmdng
satld cloud fran mar
clatcd
with a wl~~road
Imrd to = lain.
rod
is Similar
to tkt Stxxn In Fl~o
62.. Fran
this samdng
wc should tnva lnforgrcamd to abow MO mb. An acclunlut
was 30 ml 100 west of Portland
and was asmln arm.
Tti dscr~
bstwom
samdng
Indmtlms
and tiorwd
clti
Is
7 15
ATM ALT
(TH6D FT1
23
22
21
20
19
la
\
\
a \\\
\\\
\\
\\
%00
MB
/)(/
1
5t#
.
\
,/
,, y /_~
\,
17
1(
1!
14
600
\
\
1:
\
\ \
Ii
\
\
\
K/ \*
1(
TD
SEATTL
E, WASH./
CLOUD:
TOP
BASE
4,100
32,000
4,100
\/
.!OOOJ5WLL
Fl~o
@g. OoqI Clad Layer,Somdng
Shdng
Mm
Too High. Ttnwa Is good agroamant
bctwoon MXSKIIng Indcntlms
and thoobcorvod
clad
xc@ for thx clad boso, for which tho sting
Indcates
the holght
to-tin at SS00 foot. (1f a tkraoso
in ~w-pdnt
~resdm
Is followed
by a much strorqpr
decrooso,
clmoso
tln fml@ al tha kso of the strmfpr
dacrmse
as tho cl--hse
hOlgfA.)
7 16
ATM ALT
(TWSD FT)
4;:
2322-
21201918-
.500
/
p
1
17-
16-
15-
14-
600
1312-
~o
11-
lo9-
-700
/
87-
PORTLAND,
65-
e50-
32-
0-1-
15Z
CLOUD:
!
BASE
TOP
NEAR GROUND 7500
16,000
34,700
6
44
247
/
66a
-13
4-
1-
ORE
24 JAN 1955
4[ v
Y
.1000
o
t
1
/
o
7 17
ATM
ALT
.. .. . rl--,
(IM3U
400
MB
0i
232221-
20-
18,500
19-
500
/
0
/v
18-
17-
16-
15-
14-
600
13-
12-
11-
lo-
700
//
9-
87-
6-
\LBUQUERQUE,N.M.\
6DEC 1954 15Z
850
CLOUD:
TOP
BASE
17,300
IT 000
5-
43-
/\
2y
[
/
G
33
257
;;
+ 10
//
10-
-1
Fhmra
62i. Samdlng Thrcqh
Smttorod
Thin-Lay orod Mlddlo Cloudo lndcotod
by Varlablo
Hunidty.
Tha
&dlng
indmtcscmsi~mblo
variability
lnthohwnlditytmcm
Ifanycloudcouldba
Inforrod,
it waldbo
frmn 14~~to16,W0
foot and at 18, SOOfoet. Tbbl@M
ththin.&Rorod
hyor~orved~17,~ti
1. !BX well
or brdwrl.
fixed
by the sotndlng.
This
sandng
Is t~lrnl
7 18
of thin
Ioyorod
middlo
clti,
USLOIIY smtmrod
ATM ALT
(Two FT)
2s
400
MB,
22
o
21
20
19
la
17
16
15
14
13
12
II
10
9
a
7
a
5
---
3
2
ROME , N.Y.
CLOUD
8/S SC
SURFACE WEA7HER: NONE
I
a
!\
\
\
)
/),
-1000 I
/)
-1
Flp.wo S2]. Sawtdng Sbwlng a Spurlms Sq.mdabdc
~80 Rato whro Sm& LWVOSTqI of Chd. No
1s. ~ UM, ~~d
as 8Woraircrwft raoorts woro awl kblo. Tln .amdna I Iluctrot.a that * @s. adabatic utnn
@m~
Iavoa a clmd tqI and ontorc xtrunoly dry alr ah
tho cloud. lh phnomutm
ffoct m ttw thormlstor (coo par. 5.6).
tms bom ascrlbod to a --bulb
7 19
Comparisons
of the type made above between
soundings
and cloud reports
from aircraft
provide us with the following rules:
a. A cloud base is almost always found in
a layer (indicated by the sounding) where the
dew-point depression
decreases.
b. The dew-point
depression
usually decreases
to between OC and 6C when a cloud
is associated
with the decrease.
In other
words,
we should not always
associate
a
cloud with a layer of dew-point decrease
but
only when the decrease
leads to a minimum
dew-point depression
<6C; at cold temperatures (below -25C), however, dew-point depressions
in cloud are reported
as > 6C.
c. The dew-point depression
in a cloud is,
on the average,
smaller
for higher temperatures. Typical dew-point depressions
are 1C
to 2C at temperatures
of OC and above, and
4C between -lOC and -20C.
d. The base of a cloud should be located
at the base of the layer of decreasing
dewpoint depression,
if the decrease
is sharp.
e. If a layer of decrease
of dew-point
depression
is followed by a layer of stronger
decrease,
the cloud base should be identified
with the base of the layer of strongest
decrease.
f. The top of a cloud layer is usually
indicated by an increase in dew-point depression. Once a cloud base is determined,
the
CIOJd is assumed to extend up to a level where
a significant increase in dew-point depression
starts.
The gradual
increase
of dew-point
depression
with height that occurs on the
average in a cloud is not significant.
In addition to the above analysis of Project
Cloud-Trail
data, another study was made in
Hq AWS to see how reliable
the dew-point
depression
is as an indicator of clouds. Raobs
for January 1953 from 29 U.S. Weather Bureau
stations
were compared with cloud-base
observations
taken at the same location and
approximate
time of each raob. The results of
this study are summarized
in the two graphs
shown in F igu r e 63. (A more complete dis c u s s io n of this study is given in Attachment
1 to this ma nua 1.) Each graph shows the percent probability
of the existence
of
a c 10U d layer in January for different values
of the dew-point depression.
On each graph
one curve shows the probability
of clear or
scattered
conditions as a function of the dpw720
point depression;
the other curve, that of
broken or overcast
c o n d i t i o ns. Separate
graphs are included for the 1000- to 850-mb
and 850- to 600-mb layers. The graphs are
based on 1027 observations,
which are enough
to indicate the order of magnitude of the dewpoint depressions
at the base of winter cloud
layers.
(The small
irregularities
in
the curves were not smoothed out because
\
\,
+
: 00 -L
4
Ocw - POINT
:
-
c 40
g
m
<
:20
e
a
10
(c
12
14
\
\
Oc?arsstoa
---
**O
2
OC:-POIIIT
ocPnca910M
I*
10
t4
(c)
Fi~ro
63. P6rcmt
Probobl Ilty of ttm E xlatmcw of ClodLoyor
BOSW8 for Dlffwrwnt
Valmsof
Dww-Point
Dqrwwslm
(Y). Sdld
Ilnm
rqroswnt
proboblllty
of cl-r
or scattwrwd
cafdtlats;
&shwd
Ilnws, thw pro&bl
Ilty of brokwn or wvorcwst
cxmdtlcms
with tha cbd-bywr
b
bwtw.on 10DO mb and 600 mb.
it is not certain
that they are all due to insufficient
data. ) The graphs are applicable
without reference
to the synoptic
situation.
For a given winter sounding, one can estimate
from the graph the probability
of different
sky-cover
conditions
with cloud bases
between 1000 mb and 600 mb for layers of
given mlnimurn dew-point depressions.
and Missing
Data. Mo7.8. Motorboating
is a term used to describe
the
torboating
radiosondes
signal when the humidity
is
below the perceptible
level of the element.
A distinction
must be made on the Skew-T
<
7 SEP 1956
~
~
----
Fl~ro
Isotlno$
H.
Surlaca
Fronts,
al SOO-mb Dew-Pdnt
Areas
of CoIWlfIUOU8 PreciplWlon,
Dopro$slcm
at 032,
7 Sqtwrnbr
7--21
SOD-MB DEW-POINT
DEPRESS ION(C) AT 0300Z
OUTLINE
OF
SURFACE
CONTINUOUS
Aroa$
19S6.
8/8
MIDOLE
CLOUD
PRECIPITATION
Covorod
AT 0300Z
FRONTS
by 8/8 Mlddlo
Clouds,
and
motorboating
and missing
plot between
is often neglected.
data. This distinction
should always be indicated
Motorboating
data as MISDA (see par.
as MB; missing
3.4). The confusion occurs because both cases
are coded as a dew point of XX.
The characteristics
(outlined above) of the
500-mb dew-point-depression
analysis make
it a valuable adjunct to the surface analysis.
These analyses
can be compared;
and, by
cross-checking,
each can be completed with
greater
accuracy
than if it were done independently.
of
7.10.
of Dew-Point
Depres7.9. 500-mb Amlysis
sion. Figure
64 shows an analysis
of the
500- mb dew-point-depression
field, superimposed upon an analysis (based upon the surface observations)
of areas
of continuous
precipitant ion and of areas of overcast middle
cloud, The 500- mb dew-point-depression
i sopleths were drawn independently
of the surface data, The analyses
show that:
a. The regions
of high humidity at 500
mb coincide well with the areas of middle
cloud and the areas of precipitation.
b. The regions
of high humidity at 500
mb a~e separated
from. the extensive
dry
regions by strong humidity gradients.
These
gradients
are, in all probability,
much
stronger
than shown on this analysis,
since
this analysis has the defect of all continuousfield analyses
which are based on discrete
observations
spaced widely apart; i.e., linear
interpolation
between observations
smoothes
out strong contrasts.
c. A dew-point
depression
of 4C or less
is characteristic
of the larger part of the
areas of continuous precipitation
and also of
the larger part of the areas of overcast middle clouds.
Since the 500-n~b dew-point-depression
analysls agrees well with the surface analysis of
722
Three-Dimsmsioml
Humidity
Amlysis
The
Moist
Layer.
layer 2000 to 3000 feet (or less) thick sandwiched between thicker moist layers. Usually,
it is sufficient
to indicate
the entire moist
layer, without bothering about any finer structure. A survey of the field is made easier
by writing
the heights of the bases in one
color and the heights of the tops in another.
It is not recommended
that isopleths be drawn
for the height of the bases
and the tops,
because the moist layer is not a well-defined
entity.
If more specific and objective directions
than
those given in paragraph
7.7 are desired (as
would be the case when non-professional
persons
are to select
the moist layer), a
moist layer may be defined as a layer having
a frost-point
depression
of 3C or less (i. e.,
a dew-point
depression
of 4C at -10C; 5C
at -20C; 6C at -30C; etc. )
7.11.
Limitations
to Diagnosis
of Tall Cumu-
Distribution
from
and cumulonimbus
of
summer and tropical air- mass situations are
generally
scattered
and in many, if not most
cases, they do not actually
cover over half of
the sky. Under such conditions the probability
of a radiosonde,
released
once to four times
daily at a fixed time and place, passing up
through a cloud of this type, appears. to be
small. When a balloon does enter the base
of a tall cumulus cloud it is likely to pass
out of the side of the cloud rather than the
top, or it may get caught for a time in a
downdraft,
giving an ambiguous
record of
the vertical-cloud
distribution,
For the above reasons,
experience
indicates
that little dependence
can be placed on the
u.&al soundings to indicate directly the existence of tall cumulus in the area. On the other
hand, where the radiosonde
samples the environment of such clouds, a stability analysis
c o m b i n e d with consideration
of surfacew ea t h e r observations,
radar and aircraft
reports,
and synoptic analysis for heating and
convergence,
will usually provide an estimate
of the extent of cumulus sky coverage.
This
approach
uses the same principles
and procedures as in thunderstorm
and severe-con-
723
vective
erenced
weather forecasting,
which are refin chapter 8 of this manual.
Present
radiosonde
humidity elements
are
far from
capable
of measuring
humidity
vafues satisfactorily
at the temperatures
of
the cirrus levels. However, the elements will
often show change in humidity at low temperatures that reflect the presence
of the moist
layers which contain cirrus. If the transmitted
sounding
data would include the heights at
which the humidity trace at high levels indicates an increase,
or the maximum
height
to which any humidity is shown, useful inferences
of probability
of cirrus
could be
made therefrom.
This was suggested
by an
exam inat ion of some humidity traces on
radiosonde
records taken in conjunction with
(AWS TR 105-130 and
Project
Cloud-Trail
AWS TR 105-145).
mb was relatively
low [ 34 ] . Bannon
[ 9 ] [ 10 ] found a correlation
of 0.80
between
temperature
at 500 mb and frost
point at 300 mb and 0.82 between T(500) and
2f(250}
Results
of efforts to find a relation between
changes in lapse rate and the occurrence
of
cirrus
have not been very convincing and it
is doubtiul on a priori grounds that any such
simple universal
relation should be expected
(AWS TR 105-130).
Appleman
has shown how his contrail-forecasting curves
(when overlaid
on the SkewT Chart) can be used to improve the accuracy
of ground-observer
estimates
of the height
of obsertved cirrus layer:~ (see AUS TR Z05110 and AWS TR 105-11OA
for details of
procedure
and tests).
724
FORECASTING
USES
OF
RAOBS
ADIABATIC
PLOTTED
ON
CHARTS
sounding,
has been computerized
Force
Global
Weather
Central
at the Air
(AFGWC).
8.5.
Anomalous
Propagation
and Refractive
The estimation
of radio and radar
refraction
due to the atmosphere
is treated
(2 Vols.)
comprehensively
in AldS-TR-183
The various
procedures
are based on an
evaluation
of actual,
forecast,
or climatic
soundings or on assumed model-atmospheric
soundings.
AWS has published a ve rsion of the
Skew-T chart (DOD WPC-9- 16-2) with a ref ractivity
overprint.
The construction
and use
of this chart was first described
in AWS TR
169.
Index.
8.6.
Fog Forecast
forecasting
Ing.
are discusse(l
in
AWS-TR-239, as well us in
standard
~xdx)oks
of
syrmpt ic
and
applied
mcmoroiogy.
Certain specialized techniques require a
dclailcd analysis of the lower level of lhc almosphcrc
sounding.
using
Some
objective
fog-lorecxis[
[echniqucs
sounding-derived
as part
are
revision:
Fog Stabllfty
The FSI,
reAns/TR-81 /001
Icing.
8.3. Aircraft
developed
by AWS for
scribes
procedures
forecasting
icing. One procedure,
which uses
an overlay to the Skew-T diagram as an aid
for determining
the probable
type and intensity of icing from a current
or forecast
(hat follow.
(ormula
Index (FSI).
along
with
the
Fog Point
8 1
The
8.8.
where:
T,
= Surface lemperamre in C
Cloud.
Techniques
AWS
other
TR
105-130.
in
the
However,
same
LIKELIHOOD
be
techniques
involve
Guide
more
in the I itcraturc
No. 4).
a procedure
considerations
for evahraling
the Skew-T
or by a physical
approach.
(see
Mos( of these
the solar
High
synoptic
In either case,
is frequently
used
Fog Point.
value
indicates
the temperature
(C)
at which
using
the
(he saturation
The isotherm
lemperamrc
Maximum
Temperature
Forecasting.
Various objeclive melbods for forecasting maximum
Low
Moderate
>55
31-55
<3 I
follow
approaches
appear
8.9.
U. S. W. B. Forecasting
radiation
report
mixing
ratio
line
10 [he surface.
corresponding
adiabatic chart,
from
the 850-mb
temperature.
developed
an overlay
Canada,
Met.
Branch
lempcmture
Clouds.
LIKELIHOOD
OF
RALMA TiON FOG
Low
Mfxlcra[e
<()
High
Memo
lephigram
#683).
Use of adiabatic
almost
al I this
work
(DOT
A similar
charts 10 estimate or
of soundings
entrainment,
effects
modifications,
Onc
masses
estimating
level
of representa(ivc
values, allowance
of convective
errors
or forecasting
of
.scveral
heirghl,
associated
convection
m lhc
cmpiricill
in
Wiirtn
fcc[ in
hundred
cloud-top
for
mixing,
important
small
lhc
as (o place and
air
choice
and moislure
experimenters
moist
10 adjust
particularly
available,
and diurnal
etc.
height, or intcnsi[y
for many years. In
it was neccs.sary
topography,
[)-3
Tech
forecmt convective
cloud amount,
has been the subjcc~ of experiment
lime
FOG THREAT
>3
Skew-T
chart,
has devised an
surface tcmpcralure
Fog Threat = 850-rob wet bulb potential
on the
Myers
8.10.
temperatures
or tephigram.
Fog Threat.
This value indicales degree of [be threat of fog formation
by radialional cooling. It is calculated by subtracting fog
cloud
coverage,
weirlhcr.
in lhc forecast of
and
Rcccnt
sevcri[y
of
Ii[cralurc
of
Density
8.7.
with
an
altitude
individual
AWS,
and
in
temperature
This
cirrus
successful,
FSI
for forecasting
arc summarized
described
Cirrus
Altttude.
ovcrprin(
grid to facilitate
computation
of density
ohscrvations
are
available,
usc
evi]lua(ion)
i!nalysis
considerations
by
Populali(ms
over
by
ilittriift
sophis[ica[cd
on idi:lbi~ti~
Iiugc
ijrciis
ilrCil
i]l~(~
with
protwhiiily
REFERENCES
[11
[21
Anon: Forecasting
Tornadoes
and Severe Thunderstorms,
Forecast
No. 1, US Weather Bureau,
September
1956, 34 pp. ; see also,
~.:
The Lifted Jndex as a Predictor
of Latent Instability,
Bull. Amer.
Vol. 37, No. 10, December
1956, pp. 528-529.
#6, Contract
Met,
Sot. ,
[31
Anon: Testing
a Thunderstorm
1952, pp. 24-27.
[41
Anon: Theta-E
Charts
1950, pp. 25-27,
[51
[61
Forecasting
and Thunderstorm
Forecasting,
November
AWS Bulletin,
Forecasting,
April
No. 3,
1954 (AD-
33689).
[71
Aws TR 105-86:
Tropopause
A.nalysis
and Forecasting,
March
[81
Banerji,
S. : Forecasting
Thunderstorms
at Nagpur by Slice Method, Indian Jn.
of Met. and Geophys. , Vol. 1, No. 3, Jdy 1950, pp. 184-189.
[9]
[101
[11]
Bellamy,
J. C. : Objective
Vortic ity, Bull. Amer.
[121
Bergeron,
T. : The Physics of Fronts,
September
1937, pp. 265-275.
[13]
N. R. : Handbook
Berry,
F, A., Jr. , Bollay, E., and Beers,
Edition, McGraw-Hill
Book Co. , Inc. , New York, 1945.
[14]
Bjerknes,
J, : Saturated-Adiabatic
scending Environment,
Quart.
[151
Bjerknes,
1, Nos.
[161
Braham,
R. R., Jr. , and Draginis,
ference
o n Cumulus Convection,
[171
Bunker,
A. F. : On the Determination
of Moisture Gradients
from Radiosonde
Records, Bull. Amer. Met. Sot. , Vol. 34, No, 9, November 1953, pp. 406-409.
Calculations
of Divergence,
Vertical
Met. Sot. , Vol. 30, No. 2, February
Bull.
Amer.
Met.
1952 (ATI-162082).
and Lower
Velocity and
1949, pp. 45-49.
Sot. , Vol.
18, No. 9,
of Meteorology
, 1st
Q-1
[18]
Byers,
H. R., and Braham,
R. R.: The Thunderstorm,
storm Project,
U.S. Dept. of Commerce,
US Weather
[191
Conover,
J. H., and WoLlaston, C. H. : Cloud Systems
of Met. , Vol. 6, 1949, PP. 249-260.
of a Winter
[20]
Cressman,
G. P. : An Approximate Method of Divergence
Met., Vol. 11, No. 2, April 1954, pp. 83-90.
[211
Cressman,
vective
[22)
[23]
Danlelsen,
E.
the Concept
and Clim. ,
A, Vol. 11,
[24]
[25]
Hailstone Size
Fawbush,
E. J. , and Miller,
R. C.: A Method for Forecasting
at the Earths Surface, Bull. Amer. Met. Sot. , Vol. 34, No. 6, June 1953,
pp. 235-244.
[261
Godson, W. L. : Superadiabatic
~
WMO, Geneva, 1955.
-Cyclone,
Jn.
Divergence
on ConG. P. : The influence of the Field of Horizmtal
1946, pp. 85-88.
Cloudiness,
Jn. of Met. , Vol. 3, No. 3, September
Structure
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and Its Relation to
F. .- The hminar
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Univ, of Washington,
Dept. of Met.
of a Tropopause,
1958, 106 pp. ; also reprint from Arch. Met. Geoph. Biokl. , Serier
No. 3, 1959, pp. 293-332.
Lapse
Core,
Note No.
of Frontal Surfaces,
W. L. : Synoptic Properties
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ru=y 1951, pp. 54-60.
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Herlofson,
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Quart.
Jn.
my.
Met.
Bull.
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Activity
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hnaler,
[311
[32]
EM&,
M. W. : ~eradiabatic
Lapse Rates of Temperature
in Radiosonde Observations,
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G. E. , and Gustin,
Holmboe, J. , Forsythe,
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[341
James,
D. G. : Investigations
[351
kcal
Forecast
Study for Wright-Patterson
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Forecast
Manual, Section IV A, typescript,
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[36]
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and Techn.,
January
1956,
44 pp.
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[38]
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OverMarshall,
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turning, 1st Conference
on Cumulus Convection
May 1959, Woods Hole, McGill
Univ. , Montreal,
1959, unpublished
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[411
Fronts
Matthewman,
A. G. : ~ loud in Relation to Warm and Quasi-Stationary
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R. J., and Goldsmith,
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1953; (published later as) High Cloud Over Southern Eng~rof.
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January +.b-
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New York, 1940, p. 101.
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1946, 44 pp.
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pp. 53-70.
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1953, pp. 257-263.
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Met. Sot. , Vol. 34, No. 6, June 1953, pp. 250-252.
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[65]
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Vol. 1, No. 4,
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1959,
9-4
Amer.
Secretariat
Snow,
of World
APPENDIX
ASTUDY
OF THE lNTERPRETATIOt
LAYERS
FROM
?0
OVERCAST CLOUOS,8A9ES
BETwEEN 1,000-850 ~a
JANUARY
1953
OF CLOUD
SOUNDINGS
OATA
O
so
t
to
10
DC W-POIMT
Figure
A-1.
DE PRCSS1ON
tl
OEW. POINT
I-C]
Frequency
of lkw Point
lkpessions
Solid
Overcasts
with
Bases
Betmn
(C)
1000
OEPRf SSIO*(.
at the Cloud
and 700m4.
C1
Base
for
In an unpublished
study conducted
byllomo
at Hq AWS, raobs for January 1953 from 29
U. S. Weather Bureau stationswere
compared
with the lowest-cloud-layer
observations
at
the location andtime
of each sounding. Only
reliable
cloud observations
were used, e.g.,
only those of the lowest observed cloud layer
and those
obtained
from
available
pilot
on the
reports.
The Td value reported
soundingat
the base of the lowestcloudlayer
was then recordedfor
each cloudobservation.
For example, if Pittsburgh
reported anovercast at 4000 feet at 0330Z, the 0300Z Pittsburgh
sounding
was examined
for the
dew-point
depression
at that height above
the surface.
To compensate
for the probable
lag in the humidity
element,
the smallest
dew-point
depression
within the first 1000
feet above the reported
cloud-base
height
was selected as representative.
frequencies
of various
at the cloud-layer
base
and 4/10 to 7/10 cloud
further subdivided into
and 850- to 700-mb
Bargraphs
showing the frequency of the January 1953 reports with the various dew-point
depressions
at the base of solid overcasts
are shown in Figure 65.
30-
5
s
30
1,000-050
(JAttuAffY
Zo
Me
OATA)
c
{ to
8/10-
3/,0
CLCIUDCC4ZR
8
10
n.
0O1t
34@,
7,,
DCW+OIW
10
DC PRC9SIOM
)1-14
I$UP
[-C)
050- ?OOUD
(JANUARYOATA)
l/10 -3/10
CLOUO
COVER
!LdLu=
01234s4
7a
oEw-Polm
D,O,,
.,4
13UP
T OEPRISSIONI.C)
30
h
:~
1,000-050
(JANUARY
:
4
to
+/10
01134!3*
Figure
A-2.
OEW-WIWT
Frequency
3I1O
7/10
(JANUARY
aOUOCOVCR
.i
?,9
(0 11.14
OCPWS910W(-CI
of
arni 4I1O
are generally
associated
dew-point depressions.
850-roouO
Ma
OATA)
Oew Point
to
7/10
with much
15UP
4/,0
II
fkwressions
bigger
COVER
q--idlllnL1
DEW
Clobd
OATA)
7/, OC.00
La~rs
(C]
btween
at
POINT
Cloud
1000
~-nn.
8
0EP111SS40N1
10
,,-,4
,5P
1/10
to
-C)
Base
in
and 700&.
observations
are not numerous
specify the actual percentages.
enough
to
A-2
..
1.
i!
..- ___
[._.._ . ._..- -:::::=---==/:
~-...-..._
~
4
.
=.
L
:
*a
=$
A-3
Mu
(J,
lr
it
MU
.,
.-
)aD(l
-14
OEW
POINT
DE PR(5SIONI
-C)
1
1,00[ - 85(
JAF
Ill
i) 5
o
I
i
I
D@a
7
DEW
Figure
A-4.
The
Amrox
imate
Cloud Bases
Point
Depression
with
MB
DAT )
195
POINT
DE PRESS
Percent
Between
at the
)o@l
11-!4
.
ION IC)
Probab
i] it Y of
Different
Sky
1000
Cloud
and 85011b
Base.
Plotted
Ma-inst
A-4
Coverages
the-new
APPENDIX
AMATHEMATICA
L ANALYSIS
OF LAPSE-RATE
considering
In an unpublished
study (on file in Hq AWS),
JOhi3MeSSen
mathematically
described
the
processes
in the atmosphere
that lead to a
change in the lapse rate at a station.
Denoting
the lapse
terms
the
in the expansion
a~ =- a
dT
a -v.
QT+w
the
first
Y
)
dt
law
wind vector
of
thermodynamics:
_ -,increasing
ldecreasing
= - 1
CP
-v*
v-y
stability
stability
a
dQ
bz~ ()
g/c
= 0.01 C m-1
= dry
(5)
adiabatic
and p is pressure.
In the atmosphere
we can
further
write with sufficient accuracy (after
at
T-w(r-v)
lapse rate.
In Q above is included the latent heat exchanged during condensation
and evaporation.
If we want to exclude the latent heat from Q
and let Q stand only for heat transfers
by
radiation
and turbulence,
we may do so by
interpreting
r as the saturation
adiabatic
lapse rate during the condensation
phase, but
as the dry adiabatic
lapse rate otherwise.
and w
(3)
SY
_+vov
[ CP
we have written:
where
12)
r .
of ~):
az
at
az
dp
(1)
of t h e various
magnitude
(4)
CHANGES
rate by:
~T
Y=--
when,<
when>
O
O
, differential
I.vertical
advection
1 stability
,, shearing
~different
j shrinking
lcolumn
vertical
[rate
a?
-w=
B-1
heating
in the
of air of different
advection of
temperature
and stretching
advection
of
of lapse
A brief
discussion
of each term
follows:
dQ
1
a
a.-
av
a
.VT;
i.e., only the
az
ageostrophic
wind components
accomplishes
anything.
This term may create areas of instability
where none existed before and may
thus-have greater
prognostic
importance
if it
can be evaluated properly
by chart methods.
d. ~
~v
vection
if the
vT
dz
process
winds
The shearing
is
are
identically
geostrophic,
zero
since
=0.
Vg
Va
where
v
g
is
the
geostrophic
wind,
: This process
stabi-
dz
if we write:
(r-v)
d-)
~
This effect isa shifting up
az
or down of existing
lapse rates along the
vertical.
An example is that subsidence
may
spread stable inversion
lapse r a t es downwards, almost to the grounti in extreme cases.
dv
Hence,
e.-w
ad-
d~xVTandkxVT.VT
lizes a shrinking
column and destabilizes
a
stretching
column. A stretching
column may,
for instance,
be one where the top ascends
more rapidly than the bottom, hence, the top
will cool more rapidly than the bottom and
result in less stability. Ina shrinking column,
the top may ascend
more slowly than the
bottom
and result
in increased
stability.
ilv
VT
az
portant
te~m is responsible
for the pronounced diurnal
change in lapse rate. By
day, insolation heats the ground layers more
dQ
than the layers
above,
thus d
1s
32 () dt
negative and the whole term is positive;
i.e.,
destabilization
occurs.
This effect may also
be of importance
away from the ground, e.g.,
night cooling from the top of cloud layers may
destabilize
the cloud tops and cause them to
grow upwards. This effect has been offered
as an explanation
f o r nocturml
thunderstorms.
c.
then
B-2
INDEX OF TERMS
(Shows paragraph
absolute
where certain
instability
terms
and concepts
are defined,
5.19.
cellular
introduced,
or primarily
5.2.
structure
absolutely
stable
5.5.
character
absolutely
unstable
5.5.
circles
adiabatic
equivalent
4.11.
cloud edge
7.2.3.
adiabatic
wet-bulb
4.9.
cloudiness
5.23.
5.8.
coalescence
5.2.
temperature
temperature
advection
differential
effects
non-shearing
shearing
solid
vorticity
ageostrophic
5.10.,
5.12.
5.10.
5.10.
5.10.
5.15.
wind
6.9.1.,
analysis
block
antarctic
arctic
tropopause
tropopause
Arowagram
coalescence
process
7.3.
7.2.2,
6.9.1., 6.9.5.
6.9.1., 6.9.5.
cold fronts
anafront
katafront
6.9.5.
conditional
instability
5.5.
stable
5.5.
6.10.2.
conditionally
unstable
5.5.
6.10.2.
conditional
5.3.
continuity
contrail-formation
5.5.
autoconvection
lapse
5.5.
scale
3.4.
conditionally
gradient
auxiliary
(plotting)
state
sounding
convection
condensation
2.7.
5.5., 5.20.1.
3.3.
curves
level
1.2.
1.2.
1.2.
ratio
inversion
level of free
penetrative
temperature
thermal
4.19.
5.16.
5.11.1.
bumpiness
5.16.
convective
conventional
positive
5.16.
4.14.
bubble
buoyancy force
negative
2.10.
4.18.
5.18.1.
6.8.
4.22.
5.11.1.,
free
boundary-pressures
6.10.2.
2.11.
autoconvection
rate
of the tropopause
5.12.
5.12.
anafront
discussed.)
5.1.
5.1.
10-1
instability
tropopause
5.19.
6.10.1.
convergence
5.14.0.
cooling
.evaporational
non-adiabatic
4.10., 5.11.
5.11.0.
5.11.0.
supercooling
surface
5.3.
5.11.2.
evaporation
6.Y.2.
evaporational
density
altitude
cooling
Fawbush-Miller
dew point
Stability
dew-point
depression
dew-point
depression
dew-point
_..
tropopause
6.10.1.
form-drag
5.2.
7.9.
free
5.18.1.
6.9.2.
friction
5.2.
frontal
cloud structure
inversion
layer
surface
zone
thermal-wind
indications
wind variations
7.2.0.
6.9.1.
6.9.1,
6.9.0.
6.9,1.
6.9.4.
6.9.3.
fronts
cold
anafront
kataf rent
warm
7.2.2.
6.9.1.,
6.9.1.,
7.2.1.
frost
7.6.
field
inversion
differential
advection
5.10.,
5.12.
discontinuity
6.2., 6.4.,
6.9.1.
divergence
5.14.0.,
downdraft
5.2.
dry adiabat
2.3.
dry inversion
5.20.2.,
dry tongue
7.2.3.
dry zone
6.9.2.
entrainment
5.23.
6.6.
1.1.
energy
determination
equivalent
5.18.0.
4.25.
5.11.1.
energy area
negative
positive
5.18.0.
5.18.0.
convection
point
frost-point
5.2.
Emagram
depression
feet
2.6.
geopotential
meters
2.6.
inversion
5.11.2.
heating
non-adiabatic
surface
neutral
5.1., 5.5.
equilibrium,
dry indifferent
5.5.
5.10., 5.11.0.
5.11!1.
height
nomogram,
1000 mb
2.7.
height
of 1000-mb
surface
4.15.
high inversion
level
4.24.,
saturation
equivalent-potential
estegram
temperature
indifferent
temperature
6.7.
5.1.
hodograph
equilibrium,
6.9.5.
6.9.5.
7.12.
geopotential
ground
equilibrium,
equilibrium
5.24.4.
7.7.
at 500 mb
equivalent
fndex
7.6.
first
dynamic
5.11.0.
4.17.
6.9.4.
5.5.
4.12.
4.11.
5.18.4.
humidity
am lysis
characteristics
radiosonde
elements
relative
specific
10-2
7.10.
6.9.2.
7.5.0.
4.3.
4.2.
ICAO Stan&rd
Atmosphere
inversion
convection
dew point
2.8.
subsidence
tropopause
6.2.
6.8.
6.9,2,
dry
frontal
ground
high
radtation
subsidence
trade wind
turbulence
5.20.2.,
6.9.1.
5.11.2.
6.7.
6.5.
6.6.
6.6.
5.11.2.,
isentrope
analysis
6.4.
isentropic
surface
6.4.
isobar
equivalent
isobaric
wet-bulb
isotach
temperature
temperature
chart
6.9.1.
layer
5.19.
method
3.6.
legend
level of free
6.5.
Index
lifting
condensation
lower
negative
Martin
level
area
level
3.4.
5.24.5.
7.8.
layer
6.7.
mixing condensation
4.9.
mixing
5.15.
4.20.
4.23.
data
mixed
4.22.
5.24.2.
Index
missing
4.11.
convection
Lifted
mandatory
2.1.
isobaric
layering
6.6.
6.4.
isentropic
6.6.
6.10.0.
level
ratio
4.21.
4.2.
isotherm
2.2.
isothermal
6.2.
motorboattng
5.24.3., 7.10.,
7.12.
7.8.
5.11.2.
multiple
6.10.0.
isothermal
layer
katafront
6.9.1.,
laminar
6.2.
latent
heat
latent
heat of fusion
latent
instability
lateral
mixing
moist
radiation
stable
ground
lapse
atmosphere
4.16.
negative area
lower
upper
4.23.
4.23.
4.23., 5.1.
negative
ho yanc y
5.1.
negative
buoyancy
negative
nergy
5.3.
5.18.0.,
force
5.1.
5.22.
area
5.18.0.
5.2.
neutral
layer
f rental
isothermal
mixed
moist
tropopauses
NACA standard
6.9.5.
5.11.0.
(heating)
layer
5.4., 6.10.1.
6.9.1.
5.11.2.
6.7.
5.24.3., 7.10.,
7.12.
6.5.
6.2.
6.5.
6.2.
10-3
equilibrium
nocturnal
radiation
5.1., 5.5,
5.11.0., 5.11.2.
non-adiabatic
cooling
5.11.0.
non-adiabatic
heating
5.10., 5.11.0.
non-shearing
advection
5.10.
Normaid
curve
5.18.4.
oscillation
of a parcel
5.7.
mdioaonde
humidity elements
7.5.0.
overshooting
5.1., 5.18.1..
6a.
real-latent
instability
5.18.0.,
real-latent
type
5.16.0.
pucel
5.1.
InetImd
relative
pmrcel tlaaory
mlmmlpuon,
5.2.,
5.11.0., 6.16.
P-
3.1.
points to be plottnd
3.4.
po8itivo
4.23.
area
5.1.
po8itive
5.la.o.
energy
area
instabW&
5.19.
Rossby dtagram
5.10.
saturation
adtabat
2.4.
saturation
mixing
saturation
mixing-ratio
saturation
vapor pressure
ratio
4.3.
M
2.5.
4.6.
Second tropopau8e
6.10.1.
selective
(in)stxbility
5.5.
shearing
advection
5.10.
5.19.
awe
5.19.
potentklIy
~le
5.19.
temperature
precipitation
I?oaeby critiria
5.%
penetrative coIm3dion
poteatid
4.3.
5.1.
~rcel-theory
potential
tmmidty
arm
5.24.1.
ekin-frictino
5.2.
slice method
5.23.
slope
5.4.
solar Xadiauon
5.11.1.
solid advecti
5.10.
specific humidtty
4.2.
stability
chart
5.24.0.
stability
criteria
5.5., 5.!7.,
5.23.
5.24.
4.8.
7.2.2.
4.18*
3.7.
2.4.
pseuti-a~tic
assumpt.km
5.3.
pmxb-adtahatic
chart
5.3.
pseuti-adlahtic
diagram
1.1.
pstmcb-adiabatic
process
4.12.
%tability
peeu(b-instability
5.18.0.
Pseudo-liabuity
5.18.0.
pseucb-latent
instability
5.18.3.
index
5.18.3.
stability
types
absolute instability
5.18.0.
absolutely
absolutely
5.2.
6.5.
6.5.
5.11.0.,
5.11.1.
stable
unstable
autoconvection
gradient
autoconvection
lapse rate
conditional
instability
5.11.2.
10-4
5.19.
5.5.
5.5.
5.5.
5.5.
5.5.
pseudo-latent
type
real-latent
type
stable type
conditionally
stable
conditionally
unstable
conditional
state
convective
instability
latent instability
potential instability
potentially
stable
potentially
unstable
pseudo-instability
pseudo-lability
pseudo-latent
instability
real- latent instability
selective
(instability
superadiabatic
lapse rate
5.18.0.
5.18.0.
5.18.0.
5.5.
5.5.
5.5., 5.12.1.
5.19.
5.18.0., 5.22.
5.19.
5.19.
5.19.
5.18.0.
5.18.0.
5.18.3.
5.18.0., 5.18.3.
5.5.
5.5., 5.20.2.
stabilization
6.6.
stable
5.1.
adiabatic
equivalent
adiabatic
wet-bulb
cloud top
cloud virtual
convection
equivalent
equivalent
potential
isobaric
equivalent
isobaric
wet-bulb
potential
virtual
wet-bulb
wet-bulb potential
ground
stable-lapse
layer
1.1.
testing
5.20.5.
parcels
convection
thermals
5.16.
layer
6.2.
thermal-wind
indications
of frontal zones
6.9,4.
4.14.
layer
6.2.
thickness
stable
type
5.18.0.
thickness
2.8., 4.16.
trace
5.18.4.
trade-
3.4.
triangles
6.9.1.
tropopause
antarctic
arctic
atmosphere
ST-gram
strata
doubtful
Of
data
stratification
stratum
of missing
data
3.4.
Stiive Diagram
1.1.
mbaidence
5.2., 5.23.
subsidence
inversion
6.6.
subsidence
layer
6.6.
superadiabatic
5.16.
6.5.
stable
standard
4.11.
4.9.
7.3.
5.8.
4.19.
4.14.
4.12.
4.11,
4.9.
4.8.
4.13., 5.8.
4.9.
4.10.
Tephigram
thermal
stable
4.7.
temperature
lapse
rate
scale
3.2.
wind inversion
(plotting)
breaks
character
conventional
first
layer
leaves
multiple
not defined
second
WMO definition
5.5., 5.20.2.
2.6., 4.14.
6.6.
3.4.
6.5., 6.10.0.
6.10.2.
6.10.2.
6.10.0.
6.10.2.
6.10.1.
6.10.1.
6.10.0.
6.4.
6.10.0.
6.10.1.
6.10.1.
6.10.1.
supercooling
5.3.
surface
cooling
5.11.2.
surface
heating
5.11.1.
type of precipitation
7.3.
6.3.
types of stability
6.2.
synoptic
discontinuities
turbulence
turbulence
10-5
5.13.
inversion
5.11.2.,
6.5.
Rovlsod Mrch
19W
unexplained
Un8table
upper
6.4.
vorUcity
5.1.
warm front
discontlnuities
nef@lve
area
4.23.,
5.1.
chart
wet-bulb
5.15.
7.2.1.
potential
temperature
4.10.
vapor preemme
4.5.
wet-bulb temperature
4.9.
vertical
mixing
5.2.
wind data
3.5.
vertical
motion
5.10.,
wind scale
2.9.
5.12.
chart
5.15.
wind shear
moUon field
5.15.
wind variation
vertical-motion
verticalvirtual
maturation
virtual
temperature
4.13.,
advectlon
5.15.
vorUcity
5.13.
adiabat
frontal
5.8.
through
zones
WMO tropopause
6.9.3.
definition
5.8.
6.10.1.
Lifted
The Fawbush-Miller
The
.-
index ..............................................................................................5.24.2
The Modified
Index ...............................................................................5.24.3
SMbili(y
Index ................................................................5.24.4
Index .............................................................................................5.24.5
Martin
Index ......................................................................................5.24.6
Lif[cd
index ...................................................................................5.24.7
ln[iex ....................................................................................5.24.8
The Thompson
ln{lex ................................................................................................5..?4.l3
NuInkr
.......................................................................5..?4.l4
index ........................................................................................5..?4.l5
o[Slahility
S(ability
Index
Index
. . . . .. . .. .. .. . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..5.~?4.l6
Values ..............................................................5..l4.l7
10-6
,11
1)2,4/
_.