You are on page 1of 6

\

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

R
EE E K L Y
P
O
Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,
20 JULY 24 JULY 2015

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
COMEX Gold slumped near lowest levels in last one year as strong US economic data
hurt the metal. The commodity has been under stress on weak Indian demand and
strength in the US dollar this week. Indias Gold imports dropped by almost 37% to
$1.96 billion in June and most of the traders do not expect any pick up in the Indian
demand. Imports of the precious metal stood at $3.12 billion in the same month of
2014. Positive developments in Greece are supporting stocks around the globe.
COMEX Gold quotes at $1135 per ounce, down 0.70% on the day. MCX Gold futures
are trading at Rs 25583 per 10 grams, down 0.73%on the day. MCX Silver futures are
trading at Rs 34244 per kg, down 0.75% on the day as the global prices linger around
their six year lows. Dollar is quoting around 1.0864 against the Euro - its six week high
mark. The Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing significant
increases in both US housing starts and building permits in the month of June. The
report said housing starts jumped9.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.174 million in
June from the revised May estimate of1.069 million. Building permits, an indicator of
future housing demand, also surged up 7.4percent to an annual rate of 1.343 million
in June from the revised May rate of 1.125million.
MCX Crude oil futures drifted lower yet again as the WTI crude futures slipped in red.
The commodity has been reeling under pressure after testing its four month lows as
hope of rising global supplies after the Iran deal weighed on the sentiments. Oil is
also eying the recent uptick in US dollar. Dollar gained after losing initially on the
Greece debt deal though the single currency gained handsomely to quote under
1.0900 mark against the Euro after a sharp rally in US stocks this week. These are the
highest levels in six weeks for the greenback. WTI futures dropped under $51 per
barrel as stocks wavered in Europe as German lawmakers geared to vote on whether
to approve the plan for a third bailout for Greece. MCX Crude oil futures are trading
at Rs 3229 per barrel, down 0.80% on the day. The demand scenario for oil remains
unenthusiastic. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Monday
it revised down the demand for its crude this year, to a level far below its current
output. In its closely watched monthly oil-market report, OPEC lowered its projection
for 2015 by about 100,000 barrels a day, to 29.2 million a day. Thats more than 2
million a day less than the groups 12 members pumped last month.
Greece impasse has had its effect on global markets. Base metal prices may trade
lower in July as Greece impasse is all set for a new set of twists and turns as last
deadline of reform approval by Athens nears. However, a temporary respite to prices
will be provided by recovery in Chinese markets after regulators instructed all major
shareholders who sold stock over the past six months to reverse course, adding that
they should increase their holdings by at least 10 per cent of the amount of the
original reduction.
Copper prices will likely trade with a negative bias as supply glut will be the persistent
major cause of concern as production does not seem to ease from China given cost
benefits. Also, Chiles rising production and weakness in global demand will exert
pressure on prices. Aluminium prices to trade lower in July15 as swelling Chinese
exports exerted further pressure on the market following which Japan's aluminium
premiums for July-September shipments were mostly set at a six-year low of $100
from a May offer of $130-160 versus an April-June premium of $380. Chinese output
also ceases to trend down as currency benefits and cheaper inputs have allowed most
smelters to stay out of the red.

Gold Nears One


Year Low After
Strong US
Housing Data.

WTI Crude Slides


Under $51 Amid
Broad Demand
Worries.

Base Metals may


trade lower on
Greece factor;
China may offer
respite.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME

DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

July 22 6:30pm

HPI m/m

0.5%

0.3%

7:30pm

Existing Home Sales

5.40M

5.35M

8:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

July 23 6:00pm

Unemployment Claims

285K

281K

7:30pm

CB Leading Index m/m

0.1%

0.7%

8:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

July 24 7:15pm

Flash Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.6

7:30pm

New Home Sales

543K

546K

-4.3M

99B

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD showed downward
movement, and broke the trendline on
lower side and gave closing below
25500 on weekly chart after four years.
Now, if it is able to sustain below
25500 then next major support level is
seen in the range of 25000-24500. On
other hand if some correction happens
then 26000 will act as important
resistance level, maintaining above
next resistance level is 26500.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 25400 for the targets of 2480024500 with stop loss of 26100.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

25400

25150

24800

25750

26050

26350

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
bearish movement and traded in
between channel pattern and not able
to break its important resistance level
i.e. 36000 and again breached support
level of 34000. Now, if it sustains
below 34000 then next support is seen
at 32500. On higher side if correction
happens then 35600 will act as
important resistance level.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 34000 for
the targets of 33000-32500, with stop
loss of 35700.

PIVOT TABLE
S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

33800

32800

31500

35000

36000

37000

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil last week showed
sideways to bearish movement and
broke its important support level of
3225 and also closed below it. Now, if
it sustain below 3200 in coming
sessions then next important support
level is seen around 3000. On the other
hand maintaining above 3450 will
again pull its towards resistance level
of 3625.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 3175 for the targets of 30002900, with stop loss of 3450.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

3130

2950

2780

3315

3485

3625

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed
downward movement and broke its
important support level of 353 and
closed below it. Now, if it sustain
below 350 on lower side then next
important support level is seen around
340. On the other hand if correction
happens and maintains above 366
then next important resistance will be
seen around 380.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 350, with stop loss of 370 for the
target of 340-335.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

346.90

338.60

330

359.50

368

376.65

DISCLAIMER

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

You might also like