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Do Albertans trust weather warnings?

Improving the delivery of weather warnings in Canada
Jordan M. Witzel
ABSTRACT
Albertans living in areas of the province prone to severe summer weather are not prepared to endure this
weather threat unharmed. A large portion of the population has formed a negative behavioral response to severe
summer weather due to a poor warning system operated and communicated primarily by Environment Canada.
Canadas federal environment commissioner expressed concern over the weather forecasting and warnings branch of
Environment Canada in 2008, with the delivery of weather warnings being a primary concern. Without effective
weather warnings issued in a timely manner, Albertans cannot be expected to react properly when faced with severe
summer weather. Furthermore, inadequate preparedness and negative response behavior amongst the public are
possible results of an inadequate weather warning system. By showing that Albertans lack trust in weather warnings
primarily because they feel that they do not receive these weather warnings in a useful or timely manner, a
meaningful discussion can begin in Canada regarding the existing summer severe weather threat and its potential
impact on Albertans who are ill-prepared. To date, this is an area which has lacked attention in Alberta and across
Canada.
This paper summarizes survey data collected from more than 1,700 residents of towns and cities in central
and southern Alberta who are at a high risk to experience severe summer weather including tornadoes and damaging
winds. The survey responses show that a lack of trust in weather warnings originating from Environment Canada is
significantly correlated to a feeling that those warning are not received in a useful or timely manner. The survey
results also suggest that a lack of understanding of weather warnings when they are received and a low perception of
risk are not significantly correlated to a lack of trust in severe summer weather warnings. Participants were also
asked to identify how they would like to receive weather warnings. The majority expressed that television and radio
broadcasts still hold significance above social media platforms and websites but opt-ins to push technology via text
messaging and smartphone applications would be preferred. A large amount of respondents also suggested that they
would prefer interruptions to regular television programming. From this, private media enterprise in Canada should
recognize the benefit to their users in developing a text and/or smartphone weather warning delivery system, a void
that has been left by Environment Canada to date.

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Introduction
Albertans living in areas of the province prone to severe summer weather are not prepared to
endure this weather threat unharmed. A large portion of the population has formed negative behavioral
responses to severe summer weather due to a poor warning system operated and communicated primarily
by Environment Canada. Specifically, without a sufficient weather warning delivery system in place at
Environment Canada it becomes difficult for Albertans to take effective safety measures both prior to and
during severe summer weather events. A report tabled by Canadas federal environment commissioner in
2008 stated that there is no approach for verifying severe weather warnings and assessing Environment
Canadas overall performance in delivering them. A similar sentiment is shared among the private
meteorological community concerning warning dissemination and delivery in Canada. The perception
amongst some is that many severe summer weather events are missed entirely or not warned in a timely
manner.
There is little research in the way of exploring how Albertans behave in advance of and during
severe weather events. The shortfalls of a severe weather warning system in Canada, as shown in the
federal commissioners report (2008), need to be investigated with what Albertans expect from severe
summer weather and how Albertans prepare for a severe summer weather event in mind. Even with a
demonstrated western Canada tornado hazard maximum in Alberta, it is likely that many Albertans are
not readily familiar with the risks associated with such an event. It has been shown that the tornado threat
is most likely to present itself in the vicinity of a large population corridor stretching from Edmonton
south through Calgary to Lethbridge (see figure 1, Big Sky Alley). It is concerning that little or no
research has been conducted to date regarding how people living in this corridor may react to the threat of
severe summer weather. This study will attempt to correlate a variety of qualitative results that are
collected through a publicly distributed survey. The intent is to show that Albertans who lack trust in
weather warnings originating from Environment Canada have formed this emotional logic because they
feel that they do not receive severe summer weather warnings in a useful of timely manner. Expressed

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lack of trust from participants will also be tested for correlation against an expressed lack of severe
summer weather understanding and an expressed low threat perception to severe summer weather. This
study will also seek feedback as to what form of technology Albertans might find more useful for
receiving weather warnings in hopes that these methods could contribute to developing a better response
from the public during a severe weather event.

Figure 1
Big Sky Alley; annual tornado frequency in Alberta (Hage, 2003).

Background
Early tornado research in Canada was centered on Ontario and Quebec, owing mainly to a greater
database of newspaper articles and community histories in these provinces. It should be noted that
documented tornado events were rare in Canada before 1980. Results obtained by Banik et al. (2007),
who attempted to simulate the tornado hazard for point locations and power line transmission targets in
southern Ontario, show that this region faces a similar tornado threat to that of adjacent states. Tan and
Hong (2010) theorized that spatial inhomogeneity plays an important role in tornado occurrences and the
exclusion of this factor in prior research was skewing results for the risk posed to point locations in

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southern Ontario. Among the results obtained by Tan and Hong (2010) is an indication that the inclusion
of the spatial inhomogeneity characteristic of tornado occurrences has a significant impact on lowering
the tornado hazard level in southern Ontario.
Shifting focus to western Canada, Hage (2003) sought to create a long term database of tornadoes
and other destructive windstorms specific to Alberta and Saskatchewan. Based on data from newspaper
reports and community histories, a total of 3,048 severe windstorms resulting in 167 deaths, 83 injuries,
and 896 structures damaged were identified in Alberta and Saskatchewan between 1880 and 1984. From
this data, Hage (2003) was able to determine two western Canadian severe windstorm maximums in
Alberta. A primary maximum was found south of Edmonton near Ponoka, AB and a secondary maximum
was found southeast of Lethbridge near Warner, AB (see figure 1). Meantime, Brimelow et al. (2004)
attempted to utilize a radar-based methodology to derive diurnal severe thunderstorm climatology
specifically for central Alberta. By using VIL and UVIL to quantify the strength of convection along with
dBZ values associated with severe hail, Brimelow et al. (2004) were able to correlate pixel counts on
radar imagery with severe convection, thus developing a solid base for severe thunderstorm climatology
in Alberta. Results show a peak in severe convection between 4 P.M. and 6 P.M. local time (MST).
According to Clague and Bobrowsky (2010), southern Canada, along with the Midwestern United
States, sees more tornadoes annually than elsewhere in the world because central North Americas low
topography allows an interaction between subtropical and arctic air masses. The importance of subtropical
air, supplied from the Gulf of Mexico, suggests latitude may be a limiting factor in severe convective
initiation in southern Canada. However, the deadliest tornado in Canadas history, an F4 which occurred
in the countrys northernmost major city, Edmonton, Alberta, located north of 53N suggests other
synoptic and mesoscale factors can often times be responsible for severe convection in western Canada.
Newark (1984) analyzed 30 years of data and discovered that tornadoes in Alberta and the interior regions
of British Columbia appear distinct from events further east, most likely due to local effects caused by the
Coastal and Rocky Mountains. Smith and Yau (1993) and, most recently, Taylor et al. (2011) have

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worked to identify the synoptic and mesoscale parameters specific to Alberta that are responsible for the
generation of severe summer weather. Smith and Yau (1993) have demonstrated that strong surface
heating of the Alberta foothills coupled with upslope moisture supplied from farming practices and
vegetation in the prairie regions further east combine to develop a mountain-plains circulation that is
important to convective initiation in Alberta. Taylor et al. (2011) further demonstrate that the moisture
source present in the eastern prairies results from a sharp gradient between differing evapotranspiration
rates in forested and cropped areas.
Research conducted by Erfani et al. (2003) indicates that forecasting techniques with respect to
severe summer weather in Alberta have improved dramatically. Erfani et al. (2003) have shown that a
high resolution (4km) non-hydrostatic GEM model is capable of producing physical parameters that
closely match the case study F3 tornado event of July 14, 2000 in Pine Lake, AB. However, Joe et. Al
(1995) outline major deficiencies in both appropriate surface and upper air observations in Canada. This
is a major limiting factor for operational forecasters. With minimal surface and upper air data, it becomes
difficult to accurately and efficiently forecast severe weather and issue appropriate warnings. This is
evident in a 2009 report to the Senate Committee in which the Commissioner of the Environment and
Sustainable Development concluded there is no approach for verifying severe weather warnings and
assessing Environment Canadas overall performance in delivering them (Vaughan, 2009). Furthermore,
the report states there is no national system in place that automatically warns the public about severe
weather events or other emergencies (Vaughan, 2009). The report does outline a specific
recommendation to develop push technologies through mobile services that would provide better
warnings to the public ahead of severe weather including tornadoes. As of July 2014, email service is
available to the public but no other push technology has been developed. As well, despite a national
network of 11 Warning Preparedness Meteorologists available around the clock to notify emergency
management officials of impending hazards, the report identifies some level of concerns about their
accessibility, expressed in post-storm surveys and case studies that it conducted (Vaughan, 2009). It is

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also in my experience that accessibility to this network of meteorologists is often difficult. The federal
Commissioners report should be of major concern to Canadians who need accurate and timely severe
weather warnings in order to ensure their safety yet dont receive the proper information and may not
understand what information they are currently receiving. The Canadian Governments public forecasting
branch, Environment Canada, appears to be failing when it comes to raising awareness of the potential
hazards leading up to and during severe weather events. Therefore, public understanding of the severe
summer weather hazard in Alberta may be insufficient. As shown, prior research suggests that severe
summer weather is a very real threat in Alberta.
Survey design and implementation
The survey, created and hosted on Survey Monkey, was distributed online through the social
media and online pages of Global News in Edmonton, Calgary and Lethbridge for maximum reach.
Because of this, it is expected that the majority of respondents were Global News viewers and are likely
familiar with my on-air work in Calgary. Therefore, it is recognized that responses may be bias to Global
News viewers and social media followers. It should be noted that no responses were paid for through
Survey Monkey. The online nature of the study is not of concern because, according to 2010 data from
Statistics Canada, 83 percent of Albertans have access to the internet. Due to response restrictions within
the Survey Monkey format, two survey periods were conducted. The first period launched on April 1,
2014 and concluded that evening due to an overwhelming response. The second survey period opened on
May 5, 2014 and concluded on May 11, 2014.
The primary purpose of the study was to seek correlation between those who lack trust in weather
warnings and their reasons for lacking trust. Participants were initially asked to identify whether or not
they lived in Alberta and what city or town they resided in. Following this, Alberta residents were
directed to a series of likert-scale questions that were the focus of the study. Participants were first asked
to rank their trust in severe summer weather warnings. The options given were never, rarely, sometimes,

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usually, and always. Responses to this question were used as the dependant variable when calculating
correlation coefficients. Further to this, those respondents who answered never, rarely, or sometimes
were then asked to identify why they lacked trust. Three options were given and were used as the
independent variables when calculating correlation coefficients. Those options, populated in random
order for each participant, were I dont feel threatened by severe summer weather, I dont understand
thunderstorm, hail and/or tornado warnings, and I dont feel that I receive warnings in an appropriate or
timely manner. In order to confirm these responses, two additional likert-scale questions, which followed
the same format as the first, were posed. In these, participants were asked to rank their understanding of
weather warnings that mention thunderstorms, hail and/or tornadoes. They were also asked to rank their
threat perception of severe summer weather in the area which they live. Lastly, participants were given
one multiple choice question which asked them to correctly define what is implied by a severe
thunderstorm warning. They were also given an opportunity to describe how they currently receive
weather warnings and how they would prefer to receive weather warnings.
Results
A total of 1,986 responses were received during the two survey periods. Of these, 186 surveys
were incomplete and a further 21 were completed by non-Alberta residents. From this, 1,779 responses
were eligible for analysis in the study. These responses were representative of 134 communities from
southern and central Alberta that lie within the high risk regions identified by Hage (2003). Primary
analysis consisted of isolating those respondents who expressed a lack in trust of severe summer weather
warnings and calculating the percentage who selected each provided reason for a lack of trust. Each of the
three reasons provided were then assigned as the independent while the trust factor was assigned the
dependent variable to these reasons and a correlation coefficient was calculated for each of the three
samples. Because trust was expressed on a five point likert scale, two correlation coefficients were
calculated for each sample; one by maintaining the five point scale and one by assigning a binary scale to
responses with never, rarely, and sometimes assigned 0 and usually and always assigned 1.

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Of all 1,779 respondents, only three (less than 1%) expressed that a lack of understanding of
severe summer weather was their reason for lacking trust in severe weather warnings. When these two
variables are measured for any correlation using a binary scale for expressed trust, a coefficient of 0.09 is
calculated. When the five point scale is maintained for expressed trust, a coefficient of 0.12 is calculated.
These results suggest that no significance exists between a lack of weather warning understanding and the
development of a lack of trust.
Considering those respondents who generally perceive severe summer weather as a low threat to
them and lack trust in severe weather warnings, just 16 participants (less than 1%) identified themselves
as such. When these two variables are measured for any correlation using a binary scale, a coefficient of
0.20 is calculated. When the five point scale is maintained for expressed interest, a coefficient of 0.27 is
calculated. These results also suggest that no significance exists between a low threat perception and the
development of a lack of trust in severe summer weather warnings.
The results are different for those respondents who suggested that their lack of trust has
developed because they do not receive severe summer weather warnings in a timely or useful manner.
204 of the 1,779 eligible participants (11.5 %) expressed that they do not trust weather warnings because
they do not receive them appropriately. The correlation coefficient between these two variables, when the
five point scale for lack of trust is maintained, is 0.60. With a binary scale assignment to the dependant
variable, the correlation increases to 0.76. These results suggest significance between the timely and/or
useful receipt of weather warnings and a developed lack of trust.
Interestingly, the overwhelming majority of respondents (99.3 %) indicated that they understand
severe summer weather warnings but most of these participants (57 %) answered incorrectly when asked
to define a severe thunderstorm warning given multiple choice selections. It was of interest to use this
figure displaying actual lack of understanding as opposed to expressed lack of understanding to
recalculate the correlation for the variable. In this case, of the 57 % of respondents who answered

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incorrectly, 196 (11 %) also expressed a lack of trust in severe summer weather warnings. Using a binary
scale for lack of trust, a correlation coefficient of 0.31 is calculated. When maintaining the five point scale
for trust, a correlation coefficient of 0.05 is calculated. Therefore, it is shown that a lack of understanding,
whether expressed or actual, appears to have little significance in the development of a lack of trust in
severe summer weather warnings.
Summary and discussion
Much of this online study was qualitative in nature but still managed an acceptable response rate
for reasonable statistical analysis. It is hoped that the results will begin a serious discussion that
challenges the national shortcomings that currently exist within Environment Canada concerning the
delivery of weather warnings, as expressed by the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable
Development in 2008. Survey results of this study show that Albertans lack trust in weather warnings
primarily because they feel that they do not receive these weather warnings in a useful or timely manner.
This relationship stems from major flaws that exist in how weather warnings that originate from
Environment Canada are communicated to the public. This situation should remain a top concern of
Canadas federal environment commissioner who, in 2008, suggested that Environment Canada should
pursue new ways to forecast and communicate severe weather events across the country. Since the federal
environment commissioners report was released, few changes have been made at Environment Canada
that has led to any noticeable improvement in the delivery system of severe weather warnings. The result
of this lack of action is that a negative behavioral response toward severe summer weather events
stemming from a lack of trust in weather warnings still exists amongst Albertans. Furthermore, it is
demonstrated that a negative behavioral response places Albertans specifically at a higher risk of injury,
loss of life, or loss of property due to the elevated risk of severe summer weather that exists in the
province of Alberta.

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There is a significant void that exists after years of little or no improvement to the delivery of
weather forecasts and warnings by Environment Canada. This has created a major opportunity for private
media enterprise in Canada. It is important to recognize that survey respondents have expressed that
television and radio broadcasts still hold significance above social media platforms and websites when it
comes to receiving and gathering weather information. However, participants also expressed that opt-ins
to push technology via text messaging and smartphone applications would be preferred if such existed. As
current leaders in communicating weather information to the public, this is an area Canadian television
and radio outlets should look to develop immediately. The public is looking to television and radio outlets
for more valuable and timely information and improved communication. From this, private media
enterprise in Canada should recognize the benefit to their users in developing a text and/or smartphone
weather warning delivery system.
Further studies should explore why Albertans lack an understanding of weather warnings. While
a lack of understanding was not correlated to a lack of trust in weather warnings, it is interesting to see
that a large majority of Albertans believe that they understand weather warnings but actually fail to show
that they do understand. Its possible that education is a main factor in this and it is recognized that
education will play a large role in the whole process of severe weather awareness amongst Albertans.
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