Stratagems And Spoils

The BJP prepares to bet everything on

Narendra Modi
By POORNIMA JOSHI | 1 July 2013
| ONE |

THE RUMBLINGS BEGAN just before the storm, and the wise men
predicted its arrival with uncanny precision.
In the first week of June, a few days before the Bharatiya Janata Partys
national executive meeting in Goa, the veteran party leader and former
BJP president Murli Manohar Joshi placed an urgent phone call to Suresh
Bhaiyyaji Joshi, the second-in-command at the Rashtriya Swayamsevak
Sangh (RSS). At the upcoming meeting in Goa, the party planned to
announce that the chief minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi, would be
elevated to chair the partys campaign committee. The purpose of Joshis
call was to warn the RSS leader of the chaos that would ensue. Aap baat
keejiye Advaniji se, Joshi said. Jo ho raha hai theek nahin hai. Tamasha
ho jayega. (Talk to Advaniji. What is happening is not good. There will be
a public spectacle.)
Only a few days earlier, the party patriarch LK Advani, whose opposition
to Modis further ascension was hardly a secret, had demonstrated that he
was willing to make his displeasure widely known. In a speech to BJP
workers in Madhya Pradesh that would turn up in every newspaper the
following day, Advani declared that the states chief minister, Shivraj
Singh Chouhan, had compiled a development record more impressive than
Modis. Furthermore, Advani added, Chouhan had done so while remaining
humble and far from arrogance like the partys revered former prime
minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Advanis message was not hard to decode,
and BJP stalwarts like Joshi, as well as the RSS leadership, saw that it did
not bode well for a Modi coronation in Goa.
Bhaiyyaji was appropriately alarmed by Joshis exclamations, and he
promised that he would rush to Delhi to broker peaceand stall Modis
anointment, if that was what it took to prevent a crisis. He arrived in the
capital early in the morning on 7 Junebut by that point, the BJP
president, Rajnath Singh, had already sensed that forces were aligning in
a last-ditch effort to prevent Modis appointment.
Advani believed that naming Modi campaign chief was tantamount to
projecting him as the partys prime ministerial candidate, a move he
feared would split the BJP from its biggest ally, Bihar chief minister Nitish
Kumars Janata Dal (United). Singh was well aware of Advanis position:
the partys top leaders had been debating the decision for months leading
up to the Goa conclave, and Advani had warned the BJP president that
there would be adverse consequences.
Put a rider, Advani told Singh. Clarify that this is not an automatic
precursor to his projection as the BJPs prime ministerial candidate.

Advani also insisted that the party should appoint two campaign
committees: one for the general election, which Modi could head, and
another for the assembly polls taking place in five states this December,
which he proposed former BJP president Nitin Gadkari would chair.
Advanis push for Gadkari as a counterweight to Modi is a minor detail,
but it nicely illuminates the multiplying intrigues and rapidly shifting
allegiances in the BJPs current game of thrones. Although he had
championed the effort to forcefully eject Gadkari from the presidents
chair last yearover the fervent objections of the RSSAdvani was later
convinced that Gadkari had been the victim of a conspiracy to tarnish him
with an orchestrated campaign of planted stories in the media. Inside the
BJP, suspicions pointed to Arun Jaitley, the Rajya Sabha opposition leader,
who is known within the party as bureau chief for the extraordinary
influence he wields at two large-selling national dailies where his favourite
journalists run political bureaus. Although nobody knows whether Jaitley
was actually responsible for the stories, most people in the BJP, including
Advani, believe that he was. Jaitley and Advani, who were once seen as
pupil and teacher, have been in enemy camps since last December, when
Advani put forth his acolyte Sushma Swaraj, the partys leader in the Lok
Sabha and Jaitleys bte noire, as a nominee to replace Gadkari as
president.
Advani now believes that Gadkari was mistreated, and should therefore be
compensated. But like everything else in the BJP right now, Advanis
advocacy also had an ulterior motive: going to bat for the former party
president was a way to score points with the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat,
who is very close to Gadkari, his fellow Nagpur Brahmin.
After Murli Manohar Joshis phone call, it was agreed that Bhaiyyaji would
meet Singh, Advani and others in Delhi to assess the mood in the party
toward Modis promotion. But before Bhaiyyaji landed, Singh had already
scooted out of town: he left for Goa early in the morning on 7 June, one
day ahead of the start of the national executive meeting. Before the
dissentersincluding Advani, Joshi and Swarajcould capitalise on any
remaining hesitation within the RSS over Modis promotion, Singh signaled
definitively that his loyalty lay with the Gujarat chief minister. Modiji is
the most popular leader in the BJP, Singh told me when we met in Delhi
a few days prior to the Goa conclave. He is a victim of the medias hate
campaign, but people see the merit in him.
By helping to ensure that Modis elevation was announced at the Goa
conclave, Singh had in one stroke aligned himself firmly with the
triumvirate that is currently calling the shots in the BJP: Bhagwat, Modi
and the RSS joint general secretary Suresh Soni, who is the Sanghs
liaison to the BJP. They are joined by Ram Lal, the BJPs organisation
secretarythe RSSs top nominee inside the partyas well as Arun
Jaitley, who harbours his own ambitions for the top job but has decided to
cast his lot with Modi.
Several of the dissidents, of course, have their own sights on the PMs

chair; others are understandably wary of Modis tendency to eclipse and

marginalise any and all rivals to his authority. But they are united by their
belief that projecting Modi as the partys candidate right now is a needless
riska move that drives away allies and turns a safe victory over the
hapless Congress into a high-stakes gamble. One senior BJP leader, a
former Cabinet minister, told me he had pleaded with Singh to delay the
decision. I asked him why he was pushing itwhat was the hurry? the
former minister said. He kept saying, There is a lot of pressure, it cannot
be stalled anymore. It was ridiculous, really. I told him he is the president
of the party. No one could have done anything to him. He cant be
removed from his post, can he?
After the public spectacle of Advanis noisy refusal to attend the Goa
meeting, and the BJPs subsequent split with Nitish Kumars JD(U)which
ended the 17-year alliance between the two parties on 17 Junethe
dissidents are claiming some vindication. There can be no doubt that this
Gang of Four [a reference to Singh, Modi, Jaitley and Soni] have
precipitated a disaster, the former minister told me. The JD(U) has left
us, and Advani has openly expressed his reservations.
Though the BJP president has been lavish in his public praise of Modi, his
response to the Advani faction would be to insist that the choice was not
his to make: the inevitable could not have been postponed. Did you
witness the slogans and the enthusiasm among the delegates? one of
Singhs allies told me. There would have been a revolt if we hadnt made
an announcement. Even apart from the clamour for Modi from the rankand-file, senior leaders at the meeting were certain that Modi himself
would precipitate a crisis of even bigger proportions than Advani if he did
not leave Goa without at least some prize in his pocket.
FOR SEVERAL AWKWARD DAYS, the party looked to be torn in half: on
one side, a sulking Advani, a grim Swaraj, and a vociferous Murli Manohar
Joshi; on the other, the victorious caucus of Singh, Jaitley, Modi and Lal.
While Swaraj made a display of her reservations by arriving late for the
office-bearers meeting a day before the national executive began (a delay
explained by people close to Swaraj as situational), Jaitley went all out
to signal his commitment to Modi. Jaitley said that we should announce
Modis name as our PM candidate, the former Cabinet minister said. Of
course, he did it knowing fully well it could not be done immediately. As it
is, Advanis absence had given enough reason to Rajnathji to even avoid
making the announcement regarding the campaign committee.
While Modi and his alliesespecially Singhcelebrated his appointment
with the pomp of an election victory, with Modi delivering an Obama-style
acceptance speech, the absence of Advani and Swaraj at the podium was
glaring. Though the Modi camp, never short of confidence, would brush
aside the medias prurient interest in the BJPs squabbling, it quickly
became clear that the reverberations of Advanis protest had spoiled the
headlines.
On 10 June, two days after the Goa conclave, Advani dashed off a terse

letter to the BJP president, resigning from his positions on the partys
parliamentary board, election committee and national executive. It was
around this point that the RSS realised that Joshis prediction had come
true: Modi had successfully been projected as the partys new leader, but
Advani was demonstrating his ability to loudly disrupt the proceedings.
Nobody wanted to see what new public attacks he might launch against
Modi.
That same day, as the queue of supporters outside Advanis Prithviraj
Road home grew longer, Mohan Bhagwat reckoned that something had to
be done. Inside, a tearful Swaraj was pleading with Advani to withdraw
his resignation, according to a party member who was present. You did
not even tell me, Swaraj said. We were all with you, Advaniji. Rajnath
Singh had left Delhi for Rajasthan, where he told reporters that there was
no demand to rescind the decision to appoint Modi. But back at Advanis
house, a succession of visitorsincluding Gadkari, the RSS ideologue S
Gurumurthy, and the former BJP president M Venkaiah Naiduhad come,
one by one, to broker some sort of peace. Finally Gadkari called Bhagwat,
who then spoke to Advani.
It is important to note at this point that while Advani had resigned from
three of his posts, he had not offered to vacate the most important one,
as chairman of the BJP parliamentary partya position that was specially
created for him by amending the party constitution in 2009. His apparent
intention to continue in this post was an indication, for both Singh and the
RSS, that Advani was not really serious about quitting the party; he was
using pressure tactics, and would happily withdraw his resignation if they
appeared to acquiesce to at least some of his demands.
Bhagwat therefore suggested he would come to meet Advani in Delhi, and
urged him to calm down. (The Advani camp claims that the RSS
sarsanghchalak further promised Advaniji that the BJPs PM candidate will
not be decided without his concurrence.) Bhagwat and Advani made a
tentative peace and, following a hastily convened meeting of the partys
highest decision-making body, its 12-member parliamentary board, a
unanimous resolution was passed rejecting Advanis resignation. Advani
assented, still hoping that Bhagwat would concede to his wishes for a
second election committee and promise not to formally project a PM
candidate without his consent.
On the morning of 20 June, Advani went to the RSSs Delhi offices in
Jhandewalan for the promised meeting with Bhagwat. According to an
RSS source privy to the details of the discussion, the meeting, which
lasted more than an hour, was largely devoted to Advanis complaints: the
unacceptability of Modi as PM candidate, and the total disregard shown by
Rajnath Singh to Advanis cautionary advice about elevating Modi in Goa.
Advani also pushed for he and Bhagwat to make the selection of the PM
candidatea decision in which he would like Singh, Jaitley and Soni to
have as little influence as possible.
But what happened afterwards demonstrated that there were limits to

how far the RSS would go to keep Advani in good humour. A brief
statement issued by an RSS spokesman after the meeting suggested little
more would be done to pacify Advani: it gave no assurances about
Advanis concerns and established that the RSS would maintain its
authority over the decision-making process in the BJP. Later that day,
when a Mail Today reporter asked M Venkaiah Naidu who the PM
candidate would be, his response was blunt: You all know who that
candidate is. In the same breath, Naidu cited a newly released Headlines
Today poll to make his meaning even clearer. According to the survey,
Naidu said, 63 percent people in Bihar believe Modi will make a better PM
as opposed to 24 percent for Nitish. And these are the results when Modi
hasnt even begun campaigning there.
| TWO |

JUNE WAS A TUMULTUOUS MONTH for the principal opposition party,

but the end result is clear enough: Modi will lead the BJP into the next
elections with the staunch backing of the RSS. Modis elevation may have
precipitated a highly visible, political crisis within the BJPfor which
Rajnath Singh has been blamedbut even after Advanis protest, the
decision that sparked the uproar has not been revoked. Given that the
last hurdle to declaring Modi the PM candidatethat would be Nitish
Kumarhas now been removed, it is only a matter of time, RSS and BJP
insiders said, before the party makes an official announcement, which is
likely to come after the assembly elections scheduled in five states this
December.
While the Advani camp has been busy theorising about a compromise
formula with the RSS, Bhagwat has been quick to clarify that Modi is his
final choice. At an RSS function in Meerut on 18 June, one day after the
JD(U) divorce, Bhagwat made a veiled reference to the secularist
objections Advani and Kumar had put forth against Modithe only
national leader in the BJP who can be considered an icon of hard Hindutva
in the same way Advani once was. Whether somebody likes it or not,
Bhagwat said, Hindutva is the only way to bring about change in the
country. It is where the countrys respect lies.
The sarsanghchalak has been voicing these sentiments for some time
now, and according to RSS sources, Bhagwats message for the BJP is
simple: what wins votes for the party is Hindutva and the emotional
issues associated with it. Atal Bihari Vajpayee was a mirage, an RSS
leader told me. It was the Ram Janmabhoomi, Uniform Civil Code and
abrogation of Article 370 that got us the votes in the 1990s. In Modi, the
party has a leader who already represents Hindutva, but with a new sheen
of good governance and economic growth. The idiom of Hindutva has
now changed from Ram Janmabhoomi to Gujarat Shining and
development, coupled with aspirations for a strong state, a stronger
stance against Pakistan and China and zero tolerance towards terrorism.
Secularists may moan against what was done to Sohrabuddin but there is

a strong popular message that terrorists and anti-social elements will not
be tolerated, the RSS leader said. So far as Advaniji is concerned, he
should know that his days are over.
The RSS is convinced that the BJP needs the services of the Gujarat chief
minister, who excites the cadre and consolidates the partys core vote.
Against a wobbly and dithering Congress-led government, a strong leader
with impeccable Hindutva credentials and a much-touted governance
record does seem like a winnable alternative. The strongest promoters of
this line within the RSS are Bhagwat himself, along with senior leaders
like Suresh Soni and Ram Lal. Further behind-the-scenes support for Modi
within the BJP comes from a trio consisting of the Rajya Sabha MP Balbir
Punj, the former Swadeshi Jagran Manch activist and current BJP general
secretary Muralidhar Rao, and S Gurumurthy, a free agent who wields
considerable influence in the RSSwho often serve as interlocutors
between the pro- and anti-Modi factions.
Indeed, one development that has become visible during the process that
catapulted Modi to top billing among the BJPs so-called GenNextall of
whose members are over 60is that the RSS has asserted its undisputed
authority over the party. Sensing that its political progeny has come of
age, the mother outfit has set aside the two midwives who brought it to
life: Vajpayee, who had already left the scene years ago for health
reasons, and Advani, who is now being humoured as he fades into political
extinction. It was Advani who represented the last serious challenge to
the abrasive Bhagwat exercising full control over the BJP through his
handymen Gadkari and Singh. Now the RSS chief is busy setting in motion
processesboth political and divineto accelerate Advanis political
demise and the rise of a new generation in the BJP.
On 21 June, Bhagwat arrived at a village called Sunehar, in Kangra district
in Himachal Pradesh, accompanied by Indresh, a member of the RSS
executive who was named in the National Investigation Agencys
chargesheet in the October 2007 terror attack on the Ajmer Sharif shrine.
Bhagwat had come to Himachal to initiate a prolonged ritual called the
Bhrugu Sanjeevani Path, which will be performed by a family of priests in
Sunehar. The hawan is being performed to gain strength at a national
level and destroy the enemies, a local RSS functionary told me. We
expect Narendra Modiji to participate in the hawan. Because the stars
are not suitable at present, the ritual will begin on 4 July, but the RSS
chief clearly intends that the generational transition he is putting into
motion should have the blessings of the gods.
ADVANI HAD LONG BEEN A FAVOURITE of the RSS, at least until his
ill-fated decision to praise Mohammed Ali Jinnah on a visit to Pakistan in
2005. Even after this, the RSSalways a very pragmatic outfitstill
assented to Advanis projection as the PM candidate in 2009, just as they
had once agreed to Vajpayees leadership in spite of their initial
objections. But Advani could never truly repair his rift with the RSS, and
senior leaders like Bhagwat had long since decided that a generational
transition in the BJP was an absolute necessity. That had, in fact, been
clear since the partys shocking defeat in 2004, but no single leader had

yet emerged to supplant Advani. After the bumbling experiment in

collective leadership over the last four years, the RSS was convinced
that a single strong leader would be needed, and in the last 12 months,
Modi has clearly emerged as their choice. Bhagwat, meanwhile, has not
been shy about signalling the Sanghs dominant role in steering the
transition.
Consider the statement issued by RSS spokesman Manmohan Vaidya after
Advani visited Bhagwat on 20 June, which provides ample evidence of
how deeply the RSS has become involved in the day-to-day functioning of
the BJP: In a detailed and candid interaction, Shri Advaniji conveyed his
views on various developments in the country and the role of the party
and the broad nationalist movement led by the Sangh. It was opined that
several issues need further discussion and exchange of notes at various
levels. Same will take place at appropriate time. Shri Bhagwatji also
suggested that such useful exchange of views should continue in future
also. The talk of exchange of notes at various levels was a significant
admission from the RSS, which has spent years insisting that it has no say
in how the BJP conducts its business.
Indeed, the RSS, which always refrained from openly admitting its
command over the BJP, has become much more vocal about the nature of
its relationship with the party since Bhagwat took over in 2009. He was
the first RSS chief to state publicly that the Sangh has a hand in selecting
the BJPs president, a fact he mentioned in a television interview not long
before he hand-picked Gadkari for the role. Now it seems Bhagwat, who
describes Modi as a good man and a good friend, has picked the Gujarat
chief minister for PM.
Bhagwats close relationship with Modi is underscored by a connection
between the two men that is described by the academic Nikita Sud in her
2012 book Liberalisation, Hindu Nationalism and the State: A Biography of
Gujarat. Sud writes that the Gujarat chief minister was an ardent follower
of Bhagwats father Madhukar, the first RSS swayamsevak deputed to
Saurashtra and mainland Gujarat in 1940 to establish the Sangh in the
state. In April 2009, only two weeks after Mohan Bhagwat was selected as
sarsanghchalak, Modi paid public tribute to Madhukar Bhagwat at an
event in Chandrapur, Maharashtra, the elder Bhagwats birthplace, calling
him a pillar of the RSS who had been a great influence on the Gujarat
chief minister during his days as a young pracharak.
The elder Bhagwat was a committed swayamsevak who helped build a
strong foundation for the Sangh in Gujarat, a state characterised by the
absence of progressive movements and the heavy presence of revivalist
currents like the Arya Samaj and Hindu Mahasabha. Though it was then
politically dormant, the RSS in Gujarat grew into a potent cultural force,
shaping public discourse and popularising the writings of VD Savarkar,
Dayanand Saraswati, and KM Munshi. It was Munshi who, as a minister in
Nehrus Cabinet, laid the groundwork for the future Ram Janmabhoomi
movement through his campaign for the resurrection of Gujarati and
Indian pride by rebuilding the Somnath temple, which had been destroyed
by Muslim invaders a thousand years earlier. (He was helped in this

venture by another Gujarati Cabinet minister, Vallabhbhai Patel.)

As chief minister, Modi has capitalised on and further polished Gujarats
unique brand of Hindutva, which provided the foundation for the BJPs
political dominance in the stateand the shared memory of the specific
context in which the movement first flourished there has cemented the
bond between Modi and Bhagwat. Their close relationship, along with
Modis own background in the RSS, has helped insulate him against the
fierce criticism he has faced from the state units of the Vishwa Hindu
Parishad (VHP) and the RSS farmers front; it has also diminished the
fallout from Modis vicious campaign against Sanjay Joshi, an RSS fulltimer who was a powerful BJP general secretary before Modi hounded him
out.
Any lingering questions about what some in the Sangh regarded as Modis
excessive individualism were settled, according to RSS sources, during
an important meeting in Nagpur on 21 October 2012, in which Modi gave
an assurance of his continued allegiance to the RSS. Modi held
discussions with Bhagwat, Bhaiyyaji Joshi, Suresh Soni, and others. This
was a meeting in which a promise was extracted from him, an RSS
leader told me. Its not clear what that promise was, but whatever Modi
said reassured the RSS of his good intentions, and not long thereafter, he
proved his mettle once again by winning his third election in Gujarat. The
RSS is now convinced that without him, the BJP will flounder, and likely
lose its organisational support base and ideological distinction. They are
looking at the larger picture, the RSS leader said. The BJP has no leader
at the top with a mass base or ideological leaning. It is important that the
centre holds and for that to happen, Modi is needed.
Even as the RSS promotes Modi as the face of the BJP, the organisation
has taken steps to ensure its presence is increased at every level within
the party, inserting several amendments in the party constitution over the
last half-decade to create more posts for its nominees. The BJPs national
organisation secretary, Ram Lal, a direct RSS nominee, now has two joint
general secretaries, both RSS nominees, serving under him. In addition to
Lal, the Sangh also has another representative among the partys general
secretaries, the former Swadesh Jagran Manch functionary Muralidhar
Rao. The BJP has begun to appoint zonal organisation secretaries, as the
RSS has long done, and the unspoken assumption is that these posts too
will be filled by RSS men.
What Modi will do at the head of the party still remains to be seen. But for
the moment, he is certain to go along with the wishes of the RSSwhich
means avoiding further clashes with other top BJP leaders, paying
obeisance to the Sangh, and ceasing any conflict with his old antagonists
like Pravin Togadia and Sanjay Joshibecause it suits him to have the
RSS completely on his side while he fights his way to the top of the BJP.
| THREE |

MODIS ASCENSION MAY HAVE DISPIRITED his erstwhile rivals in

Delhi, but they are not without strategies of their own. Political alignments
at the top of the party are rapidly shifting, and the members of what has
come to be known (often derisively) as the Delhi ClubAdvani, Swaraj
and Jaitleyare all maneuvering to ensure they are well-situated should
Modi fail to deliver the wave his supporters expect.
While they may resent the rise of the unstoppable force from Gujarat, the
most critical factor keeping aspirations alive in the Delhi Club is simple
electoral arithmetic. None of the three is indifferent to the fact that
acceptability to potential allies will be the essential criterion for any
leader wishing to become PM after an election whose outcome is far from
certain. The party organisation is still weak in Uttar Pradesh, with its 80
Lok Sabha seats, while the winning alliance with Nitish Kumar in Bihar,
with 40 seats, has been broken in the wake of Modis promotion. The BJP
has a negligible presence in states representing more than 152 seats,
including Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and the entire
Northeast, except a few seats in Assam. While the party will undoubtedly
do well in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and
Jharkhand, which represent 105 seats between them, it is certain to lose
seats in Karnataka.
In this situation, the BJP risks finding itself unable to assemble the allies
needed to form a majority with Modi at the helm. This is the Gujarat chief
ministers biggest weakness, and a point of relative strength for all the
members of the Delhi Clubespecially Advani, who has learnt at much
personal cost that the BJP is not capable of winning the 272 seats
required for a majority in the Lok Sabha on its own. Advani also knows
that many top leaders in the party, as well as several of its regional
satraps, are uneasy about the prospect of an uncompromising autocrat
like Modi taking control of the partys command structure and dousing
their own future aspirations. No one in Delhiincluding Modis close friend
Jaitleyis eager to be engulfed by his larger than life persona. Finally,
Advani, Swaraj and Jaitley all know that the allies will seek a compromise
PM before agreeing to join the BJP if it emerges as the single largest party
without having enough votes to insist on Modi.
This same electoral calculus was surely on the mind of Nitish Kumar,
whose decision to part ways with the BJP was ultimately political rather
than ideological, in spite of his recent speeches about secularism. The BJP
has never won more than 182 seats in a Lok Sabha election, and if it
cannot top that figure in 2014, its putative allies may be in a position to
demand an alternative to Modior, Kumar presumably hopes, to put forth
one of their own for the position. The other regional parties who might
consider an alliance with a Modi-less BJPlike the Trinamool Congress in
West Bengal, the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, or the Telegu Desam Party in
Andhra Pradeshare also eyeing the electoral arithmetic.
Within the BJP, such discussions are already taking place, despite the
dominant view that Modi can lead the saffron forces to a sweeping victory.
We are looking at three scenarios, a BJP leader in the Modi camp told
me. The first is that the BJP gets anywhere between 150 and 170 seats,

in which case we form a government without Modi. The second is that we

get anything between 170 and 190 seats. In this case, we form the
government with or without Modi. And the third, of course, is that we get
over 200 seats, in which case the PM will be the leader who got us this
unprecedented windfall. And that would be undoubtedly the face of the
electionsNarendra Modi.
If the BJP falls short of its goal, Advani has positioned himself as the most
acceptable face for the partys reluctant allies: newly secular leaders like
Kumar will need a figure like Advani to return to an alliance with the BJP,
especially after dumping them beforehand to protect his chances with
Muslim voters in Bihar. This is why Advani, despite Bhagwats efforts to
keep him from causing further trouble, continues to loudly extol the
virtues of consensus and alliance politics. At a function on 21 June to
pay homage to Syama Prasad Mookerjee, who founded the BJPs
predecessor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, Advani kept up his rhetoric,
pointedly noting that Syama Prasad Mookerjee brought Orissa Gantantra
Parishad leaders to the partys first national convention. This was a move
to befriend anti-Congress political forces.

IN THIS ENDEAVOUR, Swaraj has thrown her lot in with Advani, who
as his personal website assertsis still firmly of the view that his journey
continues. The improbability of staking his claim for the top job at the
age of 86, with the RSS against him, does not seem to dampen Advanis
enthusiasmand though his attacks on Modi have won him the eternal
loathing of the Gujarati strongmans most rabid fans, if the Modi wave
fails to deliver, he remains in position to capitalise on the BJPs shortfall.
What seems more puzzling is that someone as politically adept as Swaraj
should stand so close to Advani as he pursues his lifelong fantasy of
becoming prime minister. But there is certainly something in it for her:
playing second fiddle to Advani already got her a nomination to be BJP
president earlier this year, though she declined to pursue it because she
correctly sensed the RSS was resistant to accepting Advanis suggestion.
And while Advani may not manage to become the PM, if Modi does not
bring in enough seats, he will still retain veto power over the selection.
For the time being, Swaraj has made no public displays of her own
ambitions. But several factors may play in her favor: she is an MP from
Madhya Pradesh, where Shivraj Singh Chouhan will soon be contesting
elections to win his third term in office. The BJP is on a strong footing in
the state, and confident of securing a majority in the assembly as well as
expanding its tally of Lok Sabha seats. So Swarajs strategy seems to be
to strengthen her popular base, consolidate her support in the party
ranks, and build bridges with the RSSa patriarchal organisation that will
require a lot of convincing before seriously considering a woman for the
top job. She will not voice her reservations about Modi, but her mentor
Advani has already done that. All she has to do is sit back, campaign like
the loyal party soldier she is, and bide her time. The Modi trump card may
not work, after all.

While Swaraj remains silent on Modi, her counterpart in the Rajya Sabha,
Arun Jaitley, may occupy the most extraordinary strategic position in the
BJP. He is seen as Modis closest friend in Delhi, and yet he also hosts
Nitish Kumar for dinner at his mansion in Kailash Colony. Jaitley and
Kumar have been friendly since the time when both were active in the
anti-Emergency movement, and they grew closer when Jaitley was made
the BJPs in-charge for Bihar in 2004.
Jaitley also has enviably close ties to the RSS: he has had a strong
connection with the Sangh dating back to his early days in the Akhil
Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP), the RSS student wing, at the Delhi
University. In fact, during Rajnath Singhs earlier term as BJP president,
from 2005 to 2009, he was constantly outmaneuvered by Jaitley, who was
close to the RSSs liaison to the BJP, Suresh Soni. Singh tried his best to
wean Soni away from Jaitley by getting Sonis close friend and associate
Prabhat Jha elected to the Rajya Sabha, but this had a limited impact. In
fact, concern over Sonis partiality toward Jaitley is seen as the reason
why the RSS recently decided to appoint an entire panel to supervise BJP
affairs, rather than a single personthe first time such an arrangement
has been put in place.
For Jaitley, these are significant equations in the run-up to an election
that one former BJP state president insisted would see either Modi or
Kumar as the front runner to become PM. There is no question that Modi
will be an important factor in the elections, the former state president
said. Under his command, we can either sweep or lose out completely.
But in either case, we will still be ahead of the Congress and most
certainly be the single largest party.
If the BJP has enough seats to form the government, but not enough to
install Modi as prime minister, Jaitleys ties with Kumar will help him
immensely in consolidating support to become PM. But if Modi manages to
lead the BJP to more than the historic high of 182 seats, and becomes the
PM himself, he will still need friends in Delhi, where Jaitley is a powerful
ally with clout in the media and the corporate world.
Even if the Modi magic falls far short, this person argued, the BJP will still
have enough seats to edge out the Congress and form the pillar of a third
front. In this situation, he suggested, Nitish Kumar could become prime
minister, with a BJP leader serving as deputy PM: In all likelihood, that
leader will be Arun Jaitley.
| FOUR |

IN THE AFTERNOON ON 21 MAY, a convoy of gleaming SUVs pulled

through the gates of a nondescript bungalow on Ashoka Road in central
Delhi, depositing the Gujarat chief minister at the door of Rajnath Singhs
official residence. Advani, Jaitley, Joshi, Swaraj and the other members of
the BJPs parliamentary board had retired to their respective homes after

a tiring meeting at party headquarters, but Modi continued on for a lunch

with his party president. The two men retreated to a tiny, marooncurtained room to partake of delicious fare that the women of the house
dished out in steel thalis, tiny bowls laden with aromatic delights, little
chapatis that arrived hot off the stove, and home-grown mangoes fresh
from Singhs orchards in rural Uttar Pradesh. It had been a busy day in
Delhi for Modi, who was clearly trying to signal his humility with a series
of visits to party elders, stopping in to see Advani, Vajpayee andto
everyones amazementeven the beleaguered Gadkari.
While Modi may now be the presumptive choice as PM candidate, with
Advani, Jaitley and Swaraj each maneuvering to keep their own ambitions
alive, Singh has positioned himself as a putatively neutral arbiter, looking
out for the partys best interests without considering his own. But he too
has one eye on the top job, a quiet ambition nourished in part by his
belief that greater things are fated for him. The BJP president has a
staunch Hindu faith in rituals, destiny, horoscopes and astrologyso much
so that his most trusted political advisor, Sudhanshu Trivedi, happens to
be an astrologer of some repute. Trivedi is said to have examined the
horoscope of every top BJP leader, and his continued association with the
BJP president speaks volumes about his faith in his leaders fate.
In response to questions about his own ambitions, the BJP president
simply cites the Gita and clasps his hands heavenward. If I want to be
PM, he said, then who will decide who gets to be PM? But Singhs
demurral conceals both his ambition and his faith that he was born for
bigger things in life. As some within his circles boast, Rajnathji has got
where he has because of his stars. He is an extraordinarily lucky man.
The stars have undoubtedly been kind to the former chief minister of Uttar
Pradesh. After edging out a crowd of formidable rivals when he was first
nominated to become BJP president in 2005including Advani, Swaraj
and Jaitleyhe managed to secure a second term for himself in January,
without even appearing to have tried.
To talk of Singhs good fortunes, however, is to miss the point: obviously
such feats require more than just a few strokes of luck. The reality is that
cunning and a talent for strategic posturing have brought Singh into his
present position, as a leader against whom nobody has a strong
objectiona kind of harmless clodhopper with a blind loyalty to his
recruiting agency in Nagpur.
Singh claims that he has no ambition but to bring the BJP back to power,
and projects this acquired nobility of purpose on all others. Where is the
race in the BJP for becoming prime minister? he said when we met in
April. None of us can deny that Narendra Modi is an extremely popular
leader, but Narendra Modi has never told me that he should be projected
as PM.
No, I am serious, Singh added, as if to register the skepticism his claim
would naturally evoke. I have met him several times and speak to him
regularly on the phone. He never told me he wants to be PM. We are all

working together.
Though Singh has since allied himself with Modis concerted push for top
billing, on the face of it the two men make unlikely partners: the modestly
furnished government bungalow that Singh inhabits in New Delhi has an
ambience far removed from the tech-savvy high-decibel clamour that
emanates from Modis Ahmedabad war room. Here, the presiding
atmosphere is one of rustic domesticity, with daily visits from hundreds of
dhoti-clad, paan-chewing denizens of the Hindi heartland, who patiently
sip oversweet tea while waiting for an audience with their small-town
conqueror of the big city. They identify with Singhs provincial sensibilities
and his carefully maintained rural image: Singhs crisp cotton dhoti-kurtas
make him the only member of the BJPs GenNext who still prefers what
used to be the standard uniform of the Cow Belt politician.
Marketing rusticity is an old trick, one executed to perfection by the selfproclaimed bumpkin Lalu Prasad Yadav. But Singhs son of the soil act is
not half bad. When Sonia Gandhi resigned her Lok Sabha seat in March
2006 during the short-lived controversy over her occupying an office of
profit as chairman of the National Advisory Council, the BJP held an
emergency meeting to figure out how to counter what was being hailed as
her second great sacrifice, akin to her dramatic decision to refuse the PMs
chair after the Congress election victory in 2004. A strong response was
required, but the usual strategists were coming up short. Jaitley put forth
suggestions like Sonias self-goal and she has scored a hit wicket,
while Advani tried to think up some popular term that would unmask the
Congresss propaganda. But it was Singh who devised the line that would
have the most powerful resonance in the Hindi heartland: Fisal pade to
har har Gangethat Gandhi was trying to turn an accidental slip into the
Ganga into a holy dip.
Although Singh lacks the easy affability that his ideal, Vajpayee,
possessed, he has shown an enviable ability to get along with the fiercest
of his critics. The sudden warmth now visible between Singh and his two
newest alliesthe posh lawyer Jaitley and the ambitious and aggressive
Modi, whom Singh had removed in 2007 from the partys parliamentary
boardis further evidence that what he lacks in political talent he makes
up for with perseverance.
Jaitley has never concealed his big city disdain for Singhs provincial ways,
including his obsession with astrology, stars, mantras and other ritualistic
mumbo-jumbo. Singhs first term as BJP president was marked by
frequent demonstrations of Jaitleys barely disguised contempt for his
leadership. News items mocking the BJP president often appeared in
English-language dailies known to be favourable to Jaitleywhom Singh
had removed as the head of the BJPs media departmentand an open
feud erupted between the two leaders in the run-up to the 2009 Lok
Sabha elections. Jaitley boycotted the meetings of the partys election
committee because Singh had appointed Sudhanshu Mittal, a former ABVP
office-bearer and confidant of the late Pramod Mahajan, as coordinator for
elections in the north-eastern states. Jaitley detests Mittal and saw his
appointment as a direct attack.

Six months into his second term, however, Singh has more than made up
for lost ground. He has positioned himself as one of the three leaders,
along with Modi and Jaitley, who will set the partys political strategy in
the months to come. His political advisor, Trivedi, has now been appointed
as a BJP spokesperson, and can often be seen taking Jaitleys advice.
Whether hes dealing with Swaraj, Jaitley or Advani, Singh has worked
strenuously to cultivate a level of civility that is routinely absent in the
interpersonal relations of the partys top leaders. As things stand, Jaitley
and Singh work together, and Singh, in turn, works with Advani and
Swaraj.
As the party president, Singh has positioned himself as a consensusbuildera leader who walks the middle path and carries everyone along,
just as Vajpayee once did. The analogy is not an accidental one: Singh,
like the other members of the Delhi Club, is acutely aware that while
Advani rode the chariot to Ayodhya and dragged the BJP from the fringes
to the mainstream of national politics, it was Vajpayee, with his
moderate persona, who got to be prime minister.
With that in mind, Singh has been happy to let Modi assert his primacy. In
March, at the partys first national executive meeting after Modis victory
in the Gujarat assembly elections, Singh accorded a special welcome to
the third-term chief minister, calling him the partys most popular
leader, and ensuring he was greeted by a standing ovation. Subsequently,
he inducted Modi into the parliamentary boardand scuttled Advanis
attempt to balance against Modi by keeping Shivraj Singh Chouhan out of
the partys highest decision-making body. Not only has Singh made Modis
confidant and former Gujarat home minister Amit Shah one of the partys
general secretariesthe second-most powerful rank in the BJPs
organisational structure after the presidenthe has given Shah charge of
managing elections in the critical state of Uttar Pradesh. And last but not
least, Singh held out against Advanis vocal objections and announced
Modis appointment as election committee chief at the national executive
in Goa last month.
Advani has since blamed the JD(U)s split from the BJP on Singh, while
Advanis former political aide Sudheendra Kulkarni has publicly accused
the BJP president of using Modi as a proxy for his own ambitions. In an
opinion piece for the website Rediff on 17 June, Kulkarni wrote that a
foxy party president, who has his own astrologically-induced delusions of
becoming Indias Prime Minister, has allowed himself to be prodded and
dictated by vested interests to undermine Advanis position in the BJP.
Of all Singhs many machinations, none has been foxier than his
appointment of Amit ShahModis trusted lieutenant, who is still facing
murder charges over a fake-encounter killing in Gujaratas the partys incharge for Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP must reverse its declining
fortunes to have any chance of winning in 2014. Given that Singh himself
hails from eastern UP, the decision to hand over the state to Shah took
many observers by surprise, though it was widely seen as a sign of
Singhs capitulation to Modis ambitions. But as one of Singhs allies
explained, there was a more sophisticated calculation behind the

appointment. If we do well, the party president can claim credit for

spotting Amit Shahs genius, he said. If we fail, then of course, Shah can
be made the fall guy.
But in either case, he continued, no harm is done to the party president,
who is himself considering moving his seat from Ghaziabad to somewhere
else. No one is in a position to predict what is going to happen in UP. So
the strategy would be to let Modi take over completely. No oneleast of
all the party president who did everything that was asked of himcan be
blamed. Its the same strategy that was adopted when Advani was
projected as PM in 2009.
| FIVE |

PRUDENCE AND ADVANI MIGHT HAVE DECREED that breaking

alliances would spell bad tidings before an election. But those who keep
the faith in the BJP have more or less succeeded in convincing the partys
decision makers that when you play a card, you have to play it to the hilt:
name Modi as the PM candidate now, and see how many seats the party
manages to win. Questions of secularism and moderation, they argue, are
false banners raised only when the BJP doesnt have enough seats to form
a government. When the BJP has the numbers, the allies will come on
board.
Once we have crossed the 160 mark, you will see a lot of arguments
being formulated not just in favour of the BJP, but a BJP led by Narendra
Modi, a BJP member of Parliament told me. If there is a clear projection
of Narendra Modi and the party closes ranks behind him, the BJP will
storm the Lok Sabha with over 200 seats.
But the former BJP Cabinet minister argued that this was wishful
thinking. I have said in Modis presence that it would send really wrong
signals if we allow Nitish Kumar to walk away, he told me. We have no
movement like Ram Janmabhoomi on the ground. We should keep all the
friends together. Regardless of such warnings, the BJP is now headed to
the polls with only the Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal, which between
them won 15 seats in 2009. There is little hope to forge any new alliances
before the electionsand everything will hinge on Modis ability to swing
the national mood.
In Bihar, where the BJP has been ejected from the ruling coalition as a
result of Modis ascension, there is a vocal camp with absolute faith that
he will sweep the polls. The loudest among them may be CP Thakur, the
former BJP state president and union health minister. No one else in the
state has campaigned so vociferously for Modis projection as the partys
PM candidate: an unambiguous embrace of Modi, Thakur argues, is the
BJPs only chance at victory. He is the tallest leader, Thakur told me.
He motivates the cadre and presents a strong alternative. He should be
projected as PM candidateanything short of that will harm our

prospects.
Thakur worked tirelessly to convince the BJPs leaders in Delhi that parting
ways with the JD(U)the inevitable fallout of Modis elevation, which
Advani and the other dissidents hoped to preventwould in fact be in the
partys best interests. Let them go to hell, Thakur said of the JD(U).
The more acrimonious our separation, the better it is for the BJP. Now no
one can prevent Modi from coming to campaign in Bihar.
The Bihar leader, in fact, may have contributed immensely to the partys
decision to make Modi its campaign chairman. At a formal meeting with
Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley and Ram Lal on 18 April, long before the Goa
conclave, Thakur and a handful of other Bihar BJP leaders strongly argued
that Modis projection would be far more important for the partys
prospects in the state than sticking with the JD(U).
There are many others who share this view: failing to name Modi as the
PM candidate, they argue, will only dilute the partys message and
diminish its appeal. Modi is a polarising factor, the BJP MP told me.
Some kind of projection has already happened in his favor, and we
cannot deny that there is simultaneous polarisation on the other side [in
the form of Muslim voters turning toward the Congress]. But Nitish Kumar
has asked us a question very publicly, and we should give a clear answer.
Modi should be projected PM at the earliestotherwise we will confuse our
voter.
BUT THE BJP CANNOT AFFORD another spectacle like the one Advani
created after Modis appointment as campaign chief; it may not have
improved Advanis standing, but it certainly harmed Modis image to have
Advani, still seen as the partys tallest leader, attacking him so openly. As
a result, the RSS is determined to keep Advani in the fold, with the hope
that any further explosions can be defused while the other holdouts are
brought gently around to Modis inevitability.
To this end, Modi has been advised by his friends to curb his natural
combative instincts and step up the charm offensive. Even when he was
here [in Delhi, as a BJP national secretary] Modi was a kadak (severe)
kind of presence, a senior BJP leader close to Modi told me. But when
you operate at the national level, you need to make friends and pacify the
enemies. He has to keep his head down and take everyone along.
Accordingly, in the face of Advanis extreme provocation last month, the
man infamous for citing Newtons law of action and reaction in the midst
of the Gujarat riots has exercised remarkable restraint. Modi loudly
welcomed the withdrawal of Advanis resignation, and made sure to pay a
respectful visit to the party patriarch during his trip to Delhi on 18 June.
After sitting with Advani, Modi spent an hour with the ailing Vajpayee,
who had attempted to sack the Gujarat chief minister in the aftermath of
the 2002 riots but was outmaneuvered by Advani, Pramod Mahajan and
Jaitleyand who later blamed Modi for the BJPs unexpected defeat in the
2004 elections.

Modi can be very focused when he wishes, and once he launched the
charm offensive there was no looking back: after hopping from Advanis
Prithviraj Road residence to Vajpayees quiet bungalow on Krishna Menon
Marg, he even stopped to see Murli Manohar Joshi, who had openly voiced
his reservations to Modis elevation a month earlier at a BJP parliamentary
board meeting with Modi in attendance. We need friends and allies if we
have to win an election, Joshi said, according to a source at the meeting.
This should be an aggregate of all states with regional allies and a
complete focus on the Congresss misrule. This kind of individualism will
not work.
But Joshi, unlike Advani, will not make his reservations public. For the
moment, he has decided to go along with the partys decision. After Modi
left his house, Joshi gave a gracious statement to a gaggle of TV
reporters. Modiji has come to Delhi to express his gratitude over his
recent appointment as chairman of the BJP Campaign Committee at Goa,
Joshi said. He has expressed his gratitude and said he is trying to fulfill
the responsibility given to him.
Modis modest act is not just about Advani: its a necessity if he wishes to
convince the other top party leaders that they will not be vanquished as
he rises, a widespread fear that he has to address, given his past
propensity to erase competition. The fate that befell many of Modis BJP
and RSS rivals in Gujaratincluding Haren Pandya, Kanshiram Rana,
Keshubhai Patel, Gordhan Zadaphia, Pravin Togadia and Sanjay Joshi
does not provide much encouragement for those considering Modi as the
partys new boss. Hence the sudden burst of congeniality, part of the
strategy to keep his head down and win friends.
As the party debates the intricate calculus of projecting Modi as the PM
candidateweighing the costs and benefits of the expected communal
polarisation, as well as the significance of losing the JD(U)the Gujarat
chief minister is also busy adjusting his personal style in accordance with
these nuances. The effort is to camouflage his Hindutva credentials while
simultaneously presenting an agreeable face to his skeptical colleagues in
Delhi. One notable move in this regard was the Gujarat governments
decision in April to seek the death penalty for Modis former minister Maya
Kodnani and nine others convicted in the Naroda Patiya massacre during
the 2002 riotswhich was seen in the BJP as a sign of Modis wish to
appropriate a more acceptable image for the benefit of the partys secular
allies. Although that decision has since been put on hold, Modis apparent
willingness to sacrifice one of his favourite colleagues for the sake of
secularising his reputation sent a clear message about the intensity of his
ambitions for the top job.
This process of secularisation also requires that Modi not be seen too
much among the saffron-clad Ram bhakts of the VHP, Bajrang Dal, and
other organisations at the fringe of the RSS family. Accordingly, Modi
refused to attend the VHPs Dharam Sansad in early February, an event
that saw a bare-chested BJP president dunking himself in the Ganga
alongside an assortment of bearded godmen who comprise the Parishads
core group.

The senior leader close to Modi argued that he has to strike the right
balance between his Hindutva credentials and his reputation for good
governance, while also promoting his caste identity. Modi has been able
to come out of the riots shadow and build himself as a development
man, the senior leader told me. But the biggest factor that works in the
Hindi heartland is caste. In a four-cornered fight like the one in UP, the
winner is the one who manages to garner the support of at least two
dominant caste groups. For the BJP to have a serious shot at forming the
next government, the senior leader said, the party has to do
spectacularly well in Uttar Pradesh. If he is able to combine his image
as a strong leader who has a record of delivering good governance along
with his image as a backward leader, we have a winning combination. It
can work very well.
There is a groundswell for Modi in what I call the aspirational India,
which wants faster economic growth, strong leadership as an antithesis to
Manmohan Singh and clearly defined policy, the senior leader said. This
is also the kind of voter that wants a strong anti-terror line, a tough stand
on Pakistan and issues of sovereigntya tough state. They do not want
riots, violence, curfews and disturbancefactors that disable growth. Modi
appeals to this constituency but he is still in the process of discovering
what the right balance is.
But the Modi faithful would argue that these are just fake formulations
devised by Delhi leaders, which will only serve to damage Modis
prospects. If he starts trying to become a moderate leader now, he will
lose his core constituency, a source in the RSS argued. This is what
happened to Advani after the Jinnah controversy. The Maya Kodnani
incident has not helped matters. Modi does not need a change of image.
He has an emotional appeal for the BJP voter and that is what we need.
The BJPs situation today bears a strong resemblance to the partys
position around 1996, when it was riding high on religious fervour but
could not attract the allies required to govern. It was only after the
collapse of successive governments and the deployment of Vajpayees
formidable consensus-building skills that the BJP was finally able to hold
power in 1999 after two failed attempts. The Modi camp is betting that
none of that will be necessary: they believe he has forged a new idiom for
Hindutva, one that will appeal to both the partys traditional base and the
countrys undecided voters.
India is urbanising at a rapid pace, and we have a young population that
demands good governance, the senior BJP leader close to Modi told me.
Modi has come to symbolise the aspirations of young India. Along with
consolidating the core vote, this is the population that will swing the
election in our favour.
Considering that states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which show some of
the lowest levels of urbanisation, carry enormous electoral weight, such
arguments remain untested. But as the BJP prepares to project Modi as
their candidate, the party looks more than willing to roll the dice.

Go and tell the world who our leader is, a BJP MP close to the RSS told
me. There has been enough squabbling over this issue. In the next
elections, the BJP will see the emergence of Narendra Modi. We are
betting on him.

Corrections: 1) This article originally referred to Atal Bihari Vajpayee's

"bungalow on Motilal Nehru Marg". The bungalow is, in fact, on Krishna
Menon Marg. The Caravan regrets the error. 2) The states of Gujarat,
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand represent
between them 105 Lok Sabha seats, and not 75 as was originally
mentioned in this article.