Memorandum

To:

The Cincinnati Enquirer

CC:

Kristen DelGuzzi

From:

Ashley N. Ear;

Date:

September 16, 2007

Re:

Data Analysis of Hamilton County Judges

Probabilities used to assist with Ranking of Hamilton County Judges

After the current statistics were gathered to produce data analysis regarding Hamilton
County Judges, we can come to a conclusion and rank judges appropriately by their
probability to be appealed, reversed and a combination of the both.
With the provided data analysis, I have included statistics to all probabilities including: total
cases disposed, appealed cases, reversed cases, probability of appeal, rank by probability of
appeal, probability of reversal, rank by probability of reversal, conditional probability of
reversal given appeal, rank by conditional probability of reversal given appeal and overall
sum of ranks. The judges that rank the highest (i.e. 1st, 2nd, 3rd) have the lowest probability
to have appealed cases, reversed cases and lowest conditional probability of reversed cases
given appeal. In my opinion, by ranking the judges as such, we can see how often their
ruling is upheld, which is ultimately desirable when concerning the credibility of a judge.
I have provided rankings for all three different courts including: Common Pleas Court,
Domestic Relations Court and Municipal Court. These overall rankings are gathered by
summing up all of the rankings by the three probability variables. I have also provided data
analysis which interprets who is the most credible judge overall out of the three courts.
Judges with Lowest Probability of Appeals:
Court
Common Pleas
Domestic Relations
Municipal

Judge
Ralph Winkler
Ronald Panioto
Karla Grady

Probability of Appeal
0.02849
0.00247
0.00114

Judges with Lowest Probability of Reversal:

Court
Common Pleas
Domestic Relations
Municipal

Judge
Ralph Winkler
Ronald Panioto
Karla Grady & Deidra Hair

Probability of Reversal
0.00194
0.00023
0.00000

November 5, 2007

Judges with Lowest Probability of Reversal given that they have had an Appeal:
Court
Common Pleas
Domestic Relations
Municipal

Judge
Thomas Nurre
Ronald Panioto
Karla Grady & Deidra Hair

Probability of Reversal
0.04959
0.09375
0.00000

Taking into consideration the sum of all rankings of all three probabilities, we can
come up with a general ranking of the top Judges from each court. This is a
representation of ranking the overall effectiveness of the judges. This is done by
taking a sum of all of the three ranking variables and whoever has the lowest sum
represents the judge with the best rankings. The following conclusion was made: As
shown by my data analysis below, Judge Ralph Winkler has the best ranking in
Common Pleas Court, Ronald Panioto has the best ranking in Domestic Relations
Court and Karla Grady has the best ranking in Municipal Court.

The Data Analysis is included in the following pages to allow for room to include all the data.

PELICAN STORES

Data Analysis Regarding Common Pleas Court:

0.00395
0.00297
0.00636
0.00358
0.00223
0.00795
0.00726
0.00676
0.00435
0.00477
0.00200
0.00404
0.00562
0.01047
0.00414
0.00194
0.07839

6
4
12
5
3
15
14
13
9
10
2
7
11
16
8
1

0.08759
0.08403
0.18182
0.11667
0.05512
0.19780
0.18182
0.15267
0.11200
0.11679
0.04959
0.09302
0.12414
0.16667
0.10236
0.06818
1.80268

Sum of Ranks

14
4
3
2
10
7
6
13
5
11
8
12
15
16
9
1

Rank

0.04511
0.03529
0.03498
0.03071
0.04047
0.04019
0.03991
0.04427
0.03883
0.04086
0.04033
0.04345
0.04524
0.06283
0.04043
0.02849
0.65139

Conditional
Probability of
Reversal Given
Appeal

12
10
8
7
7
18
22
20
14
16
6
12
18
10
13
6
199

Rank

Probability of
Appeal

137
119
44
60
127
91
121
131
125
137
121
129
145
60
127
88
1762

Probability of
Reversal

Reversed Cases

3037
3372
1258
1954
3138
2264
3032
2959
3219
3353
3000
2969
3205
955
3141
3089
43945

Rank

Appealed Cases

Judge
Fred Cartolano
Thomas Crush
Patrick Dinkelacker
Timothy Hogan
Robert Kraft
William Mathews
William Morrissey
Norbert Nadel
Arthur Ney Jr.
Richard Niehaus
Thomas Nurre
John O'Connor
Robert Ruehlman
J. Howard Sundermann Jr.
Ann Marie Tracey
Ralph Winkler
Total

Total Cases
Disposed

Common Pleas Court

5
4
14
9
2
16
15
12
8
10
1
6
11
13
7
3

25
12
29
16
15
38
35
38
22
31
11
25
37
45
24
5

Data Analysis Regarding Municipal Court:

0.00065
0.00077
0.00075
0.00065
0.00246
0.00000
0.00000
0.00063
0.00087
0.00036
0.00170
0.00109
0.00085
0.00034
0.00181
0.00134
0.00167
0.00111
0.00074
0.00072
0.01850

6
10
9
5
19
1
1
4
12
3
17
13
11
2
18
15
16
14
8
7

0.09302
0.17647
0.14634
0.11628
0.37143
0.00000
0.00000
0.17241
0.15385
0.16667
0.32000
0.23684
0.20588
0.07692
0.32143
0.42857
0.31707
0.18182
0.18182
0.50000
4.16683

Sum of Ranks

20
9
12
15
19
1
3
6
17
4
14
11
8
10
16
5
13
18
7
2

Rank

0.00699
0.00435
0.00515
0.00556
0.00663
0.00114
0.00197
0.00367
0.00563
0.00214
0.00532
0.00459
0.00414
0.00438
0.00563
0.00313
0.00526
0.00611
0.00410
0.00143
0.08733

Conditional
Probability of
Reversal Given
Appeal

4
6
6
5
13
0
0
5
2
1
8
9
7
1
9
3
13
6
4
2
104

Rank

Probability of
Appeal

43
34
41
43
35
6
5
29
13
6
25
38
34
13
28
7
41
33
22
4
500

Probability of
Reversal

Reversed Cases

6149
7812
7954
7736
5282
5253
2532
7900
2308
2798
4698
8277
8219
2971
4975
2239
7790
5403
5371
2797
108464

Rank

Appealed Cases

Judge
Mike Allen
Nadine Allen
Timothy Black
David Davis
Leslie Isaiah Gaines
Karla Grady
Deidra Hair
Dennis Helmick
Timothy Hogan
James Patrick Kenney
Joseph Luebbers
William Mallory
Melba Marsh
Beth Mattingly
Albert Mestemaker
Mark Painter
Jack Rosen
Mark Schweikert
David Stockdale
John A. West
Total

Total Cases
Disposed

Municipal Court

3
9
5
4
17
1
1
8
6
7
15
13
12
2
10
18
14
10
11
19

29
28
26
24
55
3
5
18
35
14
46
37
31
14
44
38
43
42
26
28

Data Analysis Regarding Domestic Relations Court:

0.00037
0.00067
0.00102
0.00023
0.00229

2
3
4
1

0.14286
0.21053
0.18750
0.09375
0.63463

Sum of Ranks

2
3
4
1

Rank

0.00257
0.00317
0.00546
0.00247
0.01365

Conditional
Probability of
Reversal Given
Appeal

1
4
9
3
17

Rank

Probability of
Appeal

7
19
48
32
106

Probability of
Reversal

Reversed Cases

2729
6001
8799
12970
30499

Rank

Appealed Cases

Judge
Penelope Cunningham
Patrick Dinkelacker
Deborah Gaines
Ronald Panioto
Total

Total Cases
Disposed

Domestic Relations Court

2
4
3
1

6
10
11
3