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ABSTRACT
Numerous studies identify potential relationships between speed characteristics and roadway
safety. More specifically, the risk of crash involvement may be positively correlated with
speed variation and higher vehicle speeds are generally correlated with increased crash
severity. Most previous studies rely on spot speed studies, using automated traffic counters
or laser/radar guns at specific points on transportation facilities, assuming that spot speed
measurements and laser speed profiles can be considered representative of roadway operating
speeds. However, spot speed studies cannot capture the speed profile of each individual
along the entire route or driver/vehicle characteristics that may contribute to crash frequency.
This paper uses GPS-equipped vehicle data obtained from the Commute Atlanta instrumented
vehicle program to measure operating speed characteristics on urban streets in Atlanta, GA.
The authors examine the relationship between the 85th percentile of monitored speed variance
and crash frequency on these facilities. It is found that for given facility types, namely
collectors and local roads, speed variance may potentially be used as a safety surrogate in the
development of a screening tool to quickly classify safety conditions on urban streets.
INTRODUCTION
There are numerous studies indicating that speed characteristics contribute to roadway safety.
While it is well understood that severity of injuries increase as vehicle speed increases,
(Fildes et al.,1991; Kloeden et al.,1997), the relationship between speed variation and crash
rates, and vehicle over-speed (speed above the speed limit) and crash rates, are still hotly
debated.
Most of the previous studies that measure operating speed have employed automated
traffic counters or laser/radar speed measurements at specific points along the roadway,
assuming that the monitored spot speeds or speed profiles collected over distances of 500 to
2000 feet (Grant, 1998: Hallmark, 1999) are representative of the operating speeds along the
entire roadway. Such studies usually cannot capture driver/vehicle characteristics which can
contribute to crash frequency (unless license plate matching techniques are employed to link
the observation back to a vehicle and driver). Global Positioning Systems (GPS) allow
researchers to track vehicles at second-by-second resolution any time of the day and under
any weather conditions. When volunteer vehicles are equipped with these monitoring
systems, the driver and vehicle characteristics can also be brought into play in safety analysis.
The researchers in the DRIVE Atlanta Laboratory at the Georgia Institute of Technology
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have been conducting an ongoing driving behavior study since 2003 using a wireless data
collection system known as the Georgia Tech Trip Data Collector (GT-TDC), which collects
vehicle activity data via an onboard GPS receiver (Jun,2006). The device collects vehicle
speed and location every one second. The data are processed into trip files, encrypted, and
wirelessly transmitted to the server at Georgia Tech. More than 460 drivers began
participating in this program in September 2003, and approximately 200 vehicles are
currently participating in the Phase III research effort (real-time congestion pricing). This
paper uses GPS-equipped vehicle data to identify the relationship between observed roadway
speed characteristics, as revealed by the instrumented vehicle data, and observed crash
frequency on these roadways, as revealed in the regional crash database. The objective of
this research is to investigate potential relationships between speed variance and crash
involvement rate, exploring the use of speed variance as an indirect measurement to predict
crash risk when site-specific accident history data are not available. For the purposes of this
study, speed variance is defined as a variance of the 85th percentile of monitored instrumented
vehicle speeds, measured every 100 feet along road segments.
1 LITERATURE REVIEW
One of the first attempts to examine the relationship of vehicle speeds, their characteristics,
and crash risk was undertaken by Solomon (1964). Solomon estimated pre-crash traveling
speeds on selected road segments, compared these speeds with speed measurements during
normal conditions, and found that many vehicles involved in rural highway crashes were
traveling well above or well below the average speed under normal conditions. However, the
pre-crashed speed data were collected from police reports or estimated from a similar crash.
Also, this effort did not consider access point densities which may play an important role in
multiple vehicle crashes.
Garber and Gadiraju (1989) found that drivers chose higher speeds on roadways meeting
higher geometric design standards, irrespective of posted speed limits. They concluded that
higher speeds do not necessarily result in higher crash rates, whereas higher speed variation
does. Kockelman and Murray (2007) combined crash data with pre-crash speeds (measured
using loop detectors) for several Southern California freeways. While a variety of factors
clearly influence speed and speed variation, the authors concluded there is no evidence that
speeds, or speed variation, influence the crash risk. However, the authors also noted several
data limitations. For instance, the recorded crash times are rarely precise and speeds are
based on using 30-second aggregated data. Thus, speed variation had to be inferred from the
variation in average speeds over a series of intervals and over a series of lanes.
2 DATA COLLECTION
2.1 Vehicle Activity Data
Unlike previous studies that have measured speeds and speed distributions at spot locations,
this paper focuses on the variability of operating speeds along stretches of pre-selected
corridors using GPS-equipped vehicle speed data. The Commute Atlanta data employed in
this study include the second-by-second vehicle trajectory data collected from January 2004
to December 2004. Each second of Commute Atlanta GPS data contain time, vehicle speed,
position (latitude-longitude), and satellite data quality information (used in automated data
processing and quality assurance routines). Each second of vehicle operation is linked to the
driver. Using Geographic Information System (GIS) routines, the second-by-second vehicle
position data are overlaid on a GIS map and linked to the roadway design and operating
parameters (such as speed limit, lane width, curvature, etc.). Figure 1 illustrates a plot of
GPS vehicle location on a second by second basis. Each line in Figure 2 represents the speed
trace of an individual trip, from the starting point to the ending point of a corridor.
The object of this ranking was to select those corridors with trip distributed among a higher
percentage of drivers.
Other selection criteria included: 1) uniform cross-section along the stretch, 2) no
mainline traffic control between corridor end points, 3) corridor length greater than 2,000 feet,
and 4) speed limit not exceeding 45 mph. For each selected corridor, design and operations
characteristics such as number of driveways, number of side streets, type of end point traffic
controls, speed limit, number of lanes, and road functional classification were obtained from
field observation.
A total of 93 corridors were selected for analysis based upon these criteria. Over the entire
12-month period, a total of 6,661,991 second-by-second data points (roughly equivalent to
1,838 hours of travel time) were collected from 408 drivers. Across the 93 corridors, the
average number of drivers per corridor is 56, ranging from 10 to 216 drivers. A total of
77,455 trips were observed across all of the corridors, with each corridor traversed by
between 33 and 7,900 trips. Table 1 shows the demographic information of the participants.
It should be noted that there is higher distribution of female drivers in this subset of data than
in the Commute Atlanta database. Distribution of younger drivers also appears to be less than
those in the full dataset.
Table 1: Demographic distribution of participants
Female
Age Group
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Total
13
33
51
48
52
22
219
(62%)
(62%)
(54%)
(48%)
(58%)
(43%)
(54%)
Male
8
20
43
51
38
29
189
(38%)
(38%)
(46%)
(52%)
(42%)
(57%)
(46%)
All
21
53
94
99
90
51
408
(5%)
(13%)
(23%)
(24%)
(22%)
(13%)
(100%)
60
40
0
20
Crash counts
80
17.6
17.8
18.0
18.2
18.4
18.6
Milelog
30
Speed,mph
40
50
60
introduces no systematic bias. However, future effort will study the accuracy of field data and
evaluate the impact of this uncertainty.
20
legend
10
95th
85th
mean
median
15th
5th
2000
3000
4000
5000
Distance,ft
30
legend
20
Speed,mph
40
50
60
10
95th
85th
mean
median
15th
5th
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Distance,ft
GPS Data
processing
54 corridors
with sufficient
GPS data
points
AADT
Geographical
Matching
38 corridors
with AADT
available
The following table provides the potential road characteristics of study sites used for the
subsequent analyses:
Table 2: Roadway characteristics codes for the study sections
Road characteristics
Values
Road functional classification
16 - Minor Arterial
17 Collectors
19 - Local streets
Speed limit (mph)
30, 35, 40 and 45
Number of lanes
0 2 lanes
1 4 lanes
Driveway density (pts./ mile)
Ranging from 1.08 to 65.04
Side street density (pts/ mile)
Ranging from 1.34 to 8.14
Length (miles)
Ranging from 0.46 to 1.12 miles
Horizontal Alignment
0 tangent and curve with radius > 2,000 feet
3 gentle curve, radius = 800-2,000 feet
2 sharp curve, radius <800 feet
Lane width (ft)
Ranging from 10 to 16 feet:
0 Less than 11 feet
1 11 to 12 feet
2 more than 12 feet
No. of curvatures per mile
Ranging from 0 to 6.4
(counts/mile)
Median type
0 none, i.e., lanes are separated by center line
1 - TWLT lane
3 - Raised median
Land use
0 Forest, undeveloped land
1 Single family homes
2 Commercial, industrial, office, apartment
Sight distance
0 Less than 200 feet
1 200 to 360 feet
2 Greater than 360 feet
Among the 38 sites, 18 sites are urban minor arterials, 17 sites are urban collectors, and 3
sites are urban local streets. With respect to number of lanes, 28 are two-lane roads while the
remaining 10 are four-lane roads. The majority of the study sites (19 corridors) have a speed
limit of 35, mph while 4, 8, and 7 sites have speed limits of 30, 40, 45 mph respectively.
Figure 8 illustrates the observed crash rate (crashes per 100 million vehicle miles,
HMVM) versus speed variances ((mph)2) for each of the 38 study corridors. These data tend
to show a positive association between speed variance and crash rate although the data is
highly scattered. In fact, there is evidence from Figure 8 that the data may belong to at least
two distinct populations (illustrated schematically by the dashed ellipses in the figure)
inferring the existence of an underlying categorical variable.
To investigate this potential hidden variable, the authors performed further investigation
by separating the data into two groups using available road feature variables. For each
potential variable in Table 2 a scatter plot of the crash rate versus speed variance was created
identifying the variable value for each data point. This allowed for a visual observation of
any potential hidden variables impacting the relationship between crash rate and speed
variance. Plots for functional classifications 16 and 17&19 are given in Figure 9 and Figure
8
10, respectively. These figures were of particular interest. There is a tendency for the lower
functional classification roadways (functional classes 17 and 19) to be associated with a
lower crash rates at the lower speed variances. However, the higher facility class roadways,
i.e. minor arterials (functional class 16) tend to have higher crash rates at the lower speed
variances.
300
400
Arterial group
100
200
500
600
10
12
Figure 8: Scatter Plot Between Crash Rate and Speed Variation, Ellipses Surround Different
Road Classification Groups
The scatter plot in Figure 9 shows that the relationship between speed variation and crash
rate does not appear to be significant for these data when only minor arterials are considered.
Speed variation has little predicative power as a surrogate safety measure when considering
minor arterials. Unlike the minor arterial corridors, there does appear to be a positive
relationship between speed variance and crash rate for collectors and local roads, as seen in
Figure 10. Interestingly, for the outlying data point in Figure 10 (Crash rate ~550 HMVM
and speed variance ~4 mph2) more than one-third of the total corridor incidents occur at a
single side street. This result indicates that the potential effect of individual facilities must be
taken into consideration in speed-related safety analyses. There may be additional
operational variables, such as the presence of a significant or unusual side street interaction
that could be identified through case study analysis.
600
600
17
500
16
16
16
200
16
16
16
16
16
1717
16
17
17
19
17
17
17
17
19
17 19
1717
16
17
17
100
100
17
16
16
16
16
16
400
200
16
17
300
400
16
300
500
17
16
0
0
10
10
12
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It is important to note that the graphical pattern between speed variance and crash rate in
Figures 8, 9, and 10 do not necessarily imply a causal relationship between the two variables,
as both speed variance and crash rate are likely dependent upon other factors, such as land
use, roadway curvature, etc. That is, many of the factors that tend to influence speed
variation may also tend to influence crash rates. While a causal relationship between these
variables may or may not exist, these findings do allow one to posit speed variance as a
potential surrogate measure for crash experience for the lower functional classes. A linear
regression model was fitted between crash rate and speed variation of the collector and local
street facility types and the result is shown in Table 3. On collectors and local streets, the
speed variance (VR85) is strongly significant. Again, while a causal relationship may not be
posited from the analysis the potential does seem to exist for the development of a screening
tool to quickly identify potentially high incident road segments.
Table 3: Linear Regression Results
Factors
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept)
84.583
99.56
0.85
0.4176
VR85
21.503
9.418
2.283
0.0483
LANE4
218.859
148.129
1.477
0.1737
MEDIAN1
-258.383
111.847
-2.31
0.0462
MEDIAN3
-99.606
182.783
-0.545
0.5990
LU1
-92.016
72.254
-1.274
0.2347
LU2
85.577
198.66
0.431
0.6768
DWAY
5.248
2.401
2.186
0.0566
INTD
13.465
12.251
1.099
0.3003
SIGHT1
-155.174
75.759
-2.048
0.0708
SIGHT2
-167.454
85.537
-1.958
0.0819
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8863, Adjusted R-squared: 0.76
F-statistic: 7.016 on 10 and 9 DF, p-value: 0.003628
*
*
.
.
.
10
4 CONCLUSION
The authors examined the relationship between the 85th percentile of monitored speed
variance and crash frequency on 38 corridors in the Atlanta region. It was found that for
collectors and local streets, speed variance may potentially be used as a safety surrogate in
the development of a screening tool to quickly classify safety conditions on urban streets.
To reach this conclusion the authors analyzed the relationship between speed variance,
defined as a variance of 85th percentile of monitored speeds every 100-ft along a corridor, and
crash rate, define per hundred million vehicle miles. Speed data for a one year period (Jan.
2004 to Dec. 2004) were obtained from GPS-equipped vehicles and incident data was
obtained from the Georgia Department of Transportation for a four year period, (2002 to
2005). Both the speed data and trip data was filtered to eliminate nighttime and inclement
weather trips, allowing for an analysis of operations under ideal conditions. While the base
data did tend to show a positive association between speed variance and crash rate, the data
are highly scattered. In fact, it was concluded that the data belonged to at least two distinct
populations, implying the existence of an underlying categorical variable of functional
classification.
Even considering functional classification, it is importation to recognize that the
presented speed variance and crash rate relationship does not necessarily infer a causal
relationship between the two variables, as both speed variance and crash rate are likely
dependent upon other factors, such as land use, roadway curvature, etc. That is, many of the
factors that tend to influence speed variation also tend to influence the collision rates. While a
causal relationship between these variables may or may not exist, these findings do allow one
to posit speed variance as a potential surrogate measure for crash experience for the lower
functional classes.
6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Support for this research work was provided by Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)
and Georgia Department of Transportation under the research project titled Real-time
Congestion Pricing and FHWA under the research project Effects of Urban Street
Environment on Operating Speeds. Assistance and support from the project research teams
is gratefully acknowledged and appreciated. The authors also thank Georgia Department of
Transportation (GDOT) for its additional data support.
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