Structural Integrity Management and Risk Based Inspection - Recent Developments

Structural Integrity Management and Risk
Based Inspection Recent Developments

SNAME Texas Section Meeting
G. Abdel Ghoneim, Ph.D., P.E.
08 December 2009
Agenda
Introduction
Gulf of Mexico Activity
SIM and RBI Fundamentals
Recent Standards
Challenges
Summary
SIM and RBI Recent Developments

SNAME Texas Section Meeting, 08 December 2009
Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
GOM Platform Activity
900
800
700
No.ofStructures
600
500
19451972
400
19731982
19832009
300
200
100
Source: MMS, B.J. Kruse, III
0
Source:
MMS
<50
51100
101150

151200
201250
251300
301350
351400
WaterDepth(ft)
09 December 2009
3
>400
GOM Platform Decommissioning
GoM Platform Vintage (Years)
15%
30%
25%
30%
<5
5-15
15-30
>30
Total ~ 3,900 Platforms

Average Removal Age ~ 16 years
Source: MMS, B.J. Kruse, III, K. S. Patterson, WISTA Oct 2008
The Issues
Source: O'Connor, BP, M. Lalani, June 2007

API RPs and Guidelines
API 2A-WSD, Recommended Practice for Planning Designing and Constructing Fixed
Offshore Platforms Working Stress Design.
API 2A-LRFD, Recommended Practice for Planning Designing and Constructing Fixed
Offshore Platforms Load and Resistance Factor Design.
API Bulletin 2TD, Guidelines for Tie-downs on Offshore Production Structures for Hurricane
Season.
API 2T, Recommended Practice for Planning Designing and Constructing Tension Leg
Platforms.
API 2FPS, Recommended Practice for Planning Designing and Constructing Floating
Production Systems.
API 2SK, Recommended Practice Design and Analysis of Stationkeeping Systems for
Floating Structures.
API 2RD, Recommended Practice Design of Risers for Floating Production Systems
(FPSs) and Tension-Leg Platforms (TLPs).
API 2I, Recommended Practice In-Service Inspection of Mooring Hardware for Floating
Drilling Units.

API 2HINS Inspection Initiator Process

Destroyed GoM Platforms

Number of PlatformsDestroyed
80
69
70
60
60
47
50
40
40
30
20
10
14
8
2
1948
1961
7
3
1969
1974
1979
1985
7
2
0
1964
1965
1992
2002
2004
2005
2005
2008
2008
Year
1.20E-03
R
RSR =
S100
1.00E-03
Annual Failure P robability
R
RSR =
S
1.00E-03
1.00E-03
8.00E-04
6.00E-04
5.00E-04
5.00E-04
4.00E-04
4.00E-04
2.00E-04
2.00E-04
1.00E-05
0.00E+00
Stiff, 2009
Stiff, 2009
Stahl, et.al.,
2000
THIC, 1992
Source

Stahl, 1986
ISO 19901-2,
2004
ISO 19902,
2008
Platform Structural Analysis

Load exposure

Safety format (LRFD vs. WSD)

Requirement Rd<Sd
Design
Load (Ld)
Design
Resistance (Rd)
Probability Density
Characteristic
Load
Mean
Load
Characteristic
Resistance
Resistance Mean
Resistance
Factor
Load
Factor
Load and Resistance

10
SIM Process
Management of Change
SIM Process
Hazard Evaluation and
Risk Assessment
Company
Policy
Contingency
Plans
Develop Integrity
Management Plan (IMP) for
Structure / System
Reporting and
Communication
Implement IMP for the

Structure / System
Audits and
Reviews
Learning and Improvement

Organization and
Personnel
Information
Management

11
Principles of Asset Integrity Management

Integrity management life cycle activities
Update risk
status
Monitor Integrity
Integrity
Update overall
inspection plan
Assess risk
(incl. SRS)
Evaluate Risk
Inspection
plan
Filter
findings
Findings
Actions
Plan survey
Inspect
Do follow-up
actions
Evaluate
findings
Record
findings
Inspect
Maintain
Plan follow up
actions
12
Slide 12
Why SIM - Ageing Problem?

The contribution of structural failure to the total number of historic
accidents is less than 10% based on worldwide data (Kvitrud, et. al.,
2001).
The reliability of a structure against environmental loads may become
unacceptable in extended lifetime. Subsidence, degradation and
changes to the original design may occur at a higher rate in extended
platform life.
Lack of data on the structure (e.g. drawings, steel type, welding
procedures, inspection results and details about earlier repairs etc.)
may result in higher uncertainty.
Using a systematic approach for evaluating whether a structure is
safe for use beyond its initial design life, taking the above mentioned
issues into account, is the objective of SIMS.
The SIM system has proven invaluable even for relatively newer
structures both fixed and floating.
Ersdal, G. Ph.D. Thesis, U of Stavanger, October 2005
13
WCT
Seminar
April 26,
Ageing & Need for SIM & RBI

14
What is Risk-Based Inspection (RBI)?

Strategic process for lowering risk and lowering cost
An integrated, data-based methodology that factors risk into inspection
decision making
Risk analysis includes not only probability of failure (PoF) but also
consequence of failure (CoF)
A qualitative and quantitative process for managing
structurres/equipment based on risk analysis
A systematic process that establishes and prioritises risk levels for each
component in the structure
RBI is an important element in the SIM system.

15
ORBIT : Main principles

Inspections
Analyses / (re-)design
Input data
Condition
Evaluation
Operating
req. & limits
Inspection
results
Monitoring
Monitoring
results
Condition evaluations
(sections and components)
Action plans
Inspection plan
Activities plan

16
Observations
Events /
History
Terminology
Robustness
Fatigue/Fracture
RSR
Failure
Push-over/Time-domain
Safety Category
Assessment/Re-assesment
Consequence of Failure Category
Risk/Reliability
Strength
RBI
Hazards
Design Life
Acceptability Criteria
Standards/Regulations
Air Gap Wave-in-Deck
Limit States
Probabilistic Methods
WSD/ASD and LRFD
Bayesian Approach
Design Criteria
Degradation
Joint Flexibility
Fitness-for-purpose
SRS
SIMS
Load Factor
Bias

17
The Two Main Steps of RBI
Expected RISK Cost

6
Normalised Expected Cost
Expected Inspection Cost

Expected Failure Cost
Expected Repair Cost

4
Total Expected Risk Cost
3
2
1
0
1.0E-04

18
1.0E-03
1.0E-02
Target Failure Probability Level
1.0E-01
Key Concepts
The Key Concepts of RBI

RISK
Probability of Failure
GFF
Consequence of
Failure
X Item DF
Damage area
Age
Item repair
Damage
type/rate
Other repairs
Injury
Business int.
Insp.
effective.
Env. clean up

19
Consequence models estimate:

-
Heat radiation levels from fires

Gas dispersion distances
Durations of fires
Explosion pressures
Number of fatalities per accident
Environmental effect

20
Reducing Risk
Inspection frequencies
Inspection scope / thoroughness
Inspection tools / techniques
Inspection practices (internal vs. external)
Building more Redundancies
Maintenance
Proper use/understanding the limitations
Emergency response
Trained crew
Effective communication lines
Local knowledge

21
Marine Safety Regulations

Classification
Societies
International
Maritime
Organization
Formal Safety Assessment

Step 1 Hazard
Identification
Step 2
Risk
Assessment
Step 3
Risk Control Options
Step 4
Cost Benefit Assessment

Rules
Rules
Classification of Mobile
Offshore Units
MODU Code
22
Step 5
Decision Making
Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Hazard review
Hazard checklist
HAZOP (hazard and operability study)
FMECA (failure modes, effects and criticality

analysis)
SWIFT (structured what-if analysis)

23
Risk matrices
Risk ranking
Structured judgement
Risk Assessment
Fault trees
Event trees
Bow tie diagrams
THREATS
CONSEQUENCES
Major
accident
Accident
Scenario
Controls
Rules and standards
Engineering judgement
Risk criteria
Cost-benefit analysis
Company values

24
Increasing individual risks and societal concerns
Management
System
Unacceptable
region
Tolerable
region
Broadly acceptable
region
Quantitative Methods
Historical data analysis
Fault tree analysis
Event tree analysis
Consequence modelling
Evacuation modelling
Risks and uncertainties
Evacuation
1.0E-04
per year
Weather
Outcome
Severe
0.01
50% fatalities
Rough
0.09
30% fatalities
Moderate
0.4
10% fatalities
Calm
0.5
5% fatalities
Calm
26%
Severe
5%
Rough
28%
Moderate
41%
25
Influences on Technique Selection

Decision context
Lifecycle stage
Major hazard potential
Novelty/non-standard
Techniques
Uncertainty
Practicality
Views/perceptions
Strengths and
weaknesses
Good practice
Efficiency

26
Traditional Inspection Planning vs. RBI Planning
Traditional
RBI
Inspection based on experience

(usually by previous
failures/breakdowns)
Inspection based on experience and

systematic (risk) review
Inspection effort driven by

likelihood of failure
Inspection effort driven by risk, i.e.

likelihood of failure and consequences
of failure
Reactive fire fighting, running

behind the ball
Pro-active planning and execution of

inspections
Systematic identification of appropriate

NDT techniques
Use of appropriate / Inappropriate

NDT techniques

27
Suitable and Sufficient Inspection Planning
Suitable techniques appropriate for the assessment being

made
Sufficient adequate to show the risks are ALARP, without

requiring further elaboration
S i n g l e c o m p o n e n t c o n si d d e r e d ; D e si g n l i v e = 2 0 y r
Failure probability
1 . 0 E -0 2
1 . 0 E -0 3
1 . 0 E -0 4
1 . 0 E -0 5
1 . 0 E -0 6
0
10
12
14
S e rv ic e tim e in y e a rs
28
16
18
20
RBI Investment and Savings

$800,000
$675,000
$700,000
$600,000
$600,000
$550,000
$500,000
$500,000
$400,000
$400,000
$250,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$85,000
$50,000
$0
RBI
Study
Invest
Inspect Prod
& Maint Cost
Savings Savings
RBI
Study
Invest
$65,000
Inspect Prod
& Maint Cost
Savings Savings
RBI
Study
Invest
Inspect Prod
& Maint Cost
Savings Savings
Refinery - 35
Pressure Vessels
Refinery - 50
Pressure Vessels
Total $ Savings = $1.1M
Total $ Savings = $650,000
ROI = 22:1
ROI = 8:1
ROI = 19:1
Chemical Plant - 200

Pressure Vessels

29
rbi invesment & savings
Typical ROI = 8:1

$800,000
$675,000
$700,000
$600,000
$600,000
$550,000
$500,000
$500,000
$1,520,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
$0
RBI
Study
Invest
Inspect Prod
& Maint Cost
Savings Savings
Chemical Plant - 200

Pressure Vessels
RBI
Study
Invest
Offshore Installation
Piping & Vessels
ROI = 22:1
ROI = 20:1

Inspect Prod
& Maint Cost
Savings Savings
30
$65,000
RBI
Study
Invest
Inspect Prod
& Maint Cost
Savings Savings
Refinery - 50
Pressure Vessels
ROI = 19:1
ORBIT Structure

31
RBI Detailed Assessment

32
RBI Detailed Assessment

33
Inspection Planning
Challenges: No general standard, guideline or common industry practice available
for inspection planning for structures
RBI Analysis Process
New fatigue analysis results
Only done ones
Updated FIPs
(input and results)
SIMS
Member condition
Inspection history
SIMS FIPs Upload
Master RBI Table (2004)

- Fatigue point identification
- fatigue damage rates
- Analysis Method Fatigue
- Analysis Method Collapse
- consequence of member failure
- preferred inspection method
- etc.
Updated Master RBI Table

- RBI Input and results
Inspection plan (FIPs)
RBI analysis report
New fatigue analysis

Fatigue Master Table
Orbit Workflow Manager

Orbit Workflow Manager
RBI analysis
ORBIT/Profast
New RBI Analysis results
(Profast jnl files & database

34
Relevant DNV Publications

RP-F107 Pipeline Risk Assessment
RP-G101 RBI of Topsides Equipment
OS-E304 Offshore Mooring Steel Wire Ropes
OSS-121 Class base on Risk Assessment
OSS-303 Risk Based Verification
OSS-304 Risk Based Verification of Offshore Structures
Available online: webshop.dnv.com

35
DNV RP-F107 Pipeline Risk Assessment

Cost Benefit Analysis
Risk Matrix

36
DNV RP-G101 RBI of Topsides Equipment
Maintenance Management System

37

38
ISO 17776 (2000)

39
Push-over Analysis

40
SIM System

41
Decision Time

42
Structural Operational Challenges

New Env.
Criteria
Wave diffraction
Earthquake /
Accidental Loads
Structural modifications/
Weight Management
Platform
strength
COG
Subsidence of seabed/
Possible WiD
Objective Reassessment of Jacket Platforms:

To
safe
useuse
untiluntil
end of
production
Todocument
document
safe
end
of production
Deck
Strength
Date for change in platform operation

(from
Datemanned
for change
in platform operation
to unmanned)
(from manned to unmanned)
Establish evacuation criteria
Cost and scheduling of structural mitigation
Cost and scheduling of structural mitigation

Fatigue strength &
Inspection planning
Foundation
capacity
Inspection planning
Large amount
of
information
43
Some Challenges
Wave-in-deck-load (WiD) and load on jacket (WoJ) and variation with time
90
90
Fx - Total (inc. "jet" effect)
80
Fx - WoJ (incl. "jet" effect)
80
70
Fx - WoJ (without "jet" effect)

Fx - WiD (Comflow)
70
Fz - WoJ
Fx (MN)
50
60
50
Fz - WiD (Comflow)
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
2.2
2.7
3.2
3.7
4.2
4.7
5.2
5.7
6.2
6.7
7.2
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.2
9.7
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
Time (sec)

44
Fz (MN)
60
Challenges (contd)
Determination of failure criteria
Excessive deformation
Dynamic behavior
delta
Elastic
flexibility
Axial joint deformation, delta

45
Rise time for wave-in-deck load coincide with one quarter of platform
lowest eigenperiod
New vs. Old

46
NORSOK STANDARD N-006, March 2009

47
NORSOK Assessment Principles

Requirements to in-service inspection planning and structural integrity management
of jacket structures in general may be found in ISO 19902, Clause 23.
Requirements to inspection and condition monitoring are given in ISO 19903,
Chapter 14.
Requirements to in-service inspection, monitoring and maintenance are given in ISO
19904-1, Chapter 18.
Shut-down and unmanning procedure shall be implemented in order to ensure that
there is less than 5x10-4 annual probability of the facility being exposed to
environmental actions exceeding the structural capacity determined according to the
ALS, with personnel onboard.
In cases of pollution risk or main safety function impairment it should be shown that
the combined probability of a structural failure and leakage that could lead to
significant pollution is less than 1x10-4 per year.

48
API RP 2SIM (Draft) ToC

49
API RP 2SIM (Draft)

Data
Evaluation
Managed system
for archive and
retrieval of SIM
data and other
pertinent records
Evaluation of
structural integrity
and fitness for
purpose;
development of
remedial actions
Data
Strategy
Overall inspection
philosophy &
strategy and
criteria for inservice inspection
Initiator
Triggered
Evaluation
No
Strategy
Program
Detailed work
scopes for
inspection
activities and
offshore execution
to obtain quality
data
Program
Yes
Assessment
SIM Process and Document Organization
Source: Draft API RP 2SIM

50
API RP 2SIM (Draft) RBI Intervals

Assessment Initiator
(See 4.3.5)
Risk
Category
Inspection Interval Ranges
High
3-years to 5-years
Medium
6-years to 10-years
Low
11-years or greater
Assessment Category
(See 4.3.4.4)
Consequence of Platform Failure

(see 4.3.4)
Assessment
Category
and
Assessment
Information
Assessment Information
(See 7.3)
YES
Notes:
a) The timing for the first underwater periodic inspection should be determined
from the date of platform installation or when the baseline inspection was
completed.
b) Risk-based intervals should be adjusted to verify uninterrupted cathodic
protection of the platform. This should be based on data evaluation from prior
inspections.
Inadequate
Deck Height?
(see 4.3.5.1)
Assessment Methods
Section 7
Simple Method
(see 7.5)
Design Level
Method
(see 7.6)
Ultimate Strength
Method
(see 7.7)
Assessment Criteria
Sections 8, 9
- Assessment Type
- Assessment
Category
- Assessment
Criteria
- Load Approach
Assessment Criteria
- Design Level
- Ultimate Strength
- Environmental Load
Assessment
Method
- Assessment
Category
RSR Criteria
- Minimum RSR
Alternative
Methods
(see 7.8)
Pass Assessment?
Mitigation and Risk

Reduction Section 9
Mitigation
And Risk
Assessment
Document
(see 4.2)
Source: Draft API RP 2SIM

51
API 2A 20th and 21st Ed. RSRs

20th Ed. GOM
Assessment
Category
21st Ed. GOM

Assessment Category
Reserve Strength Ratio (RSR)

GoM L-1 (High)
1.6 for Central Region1

1.2 for Other Regions
A-1 High
1.21
A-2 Medium
0.8
GoM L-2 (Medium)
1.2
A-3 Low
0.62
GoM L-3 (Low)
1.0
Other U.S.
Offshore Areas
2.0
1. This
RSR is applicable only for continued use of the platform for its
present purpose. Not applicable for Change-of Use conditions.
2. Not to be used for water depth greater than 400 ft.
1. Includes
platforms located in the associated Transition Regions. The 100-year

return period metocean conditions as defined in API RP2 MET should be
used to compute the RSR.
20th Ed. Other U.S. Offshore Areas

Assessment Category

API RP2A 19th
Edition and
Earlier
A-1 High
1.6
API RP2A 20th

Edition and Later
2.0

52
Summary
Structural Integrity Management (SIM) and Risk based inspection planning (RBI)
are tools employed to develop bases for asset management and in-service
inspection in order to extend the useful life of the structure and increase its
reliability level.
SIM is geared towards managing the asset data and communicating status to
corporate management in a systematic manner.
RBI entails:
-
A risk screening process in order to identify critical areas and summarize the failure
modes.
The consequences of possible failures and repair strategy are established in close
co-operation with the operator.
The costs of inspection and repair for failures are established.
Probabilistic progressive collapse analyses are performed for a number of
representative mechanisms in the structures.
A cost optimal inspection strategy is established.
Finally, a user friendly tailor made software is developed to to perform the life cycle
management of the Assets.
53
Safeguarding life, property

and the environment
www.dnv.com

54

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Structural Integrity Management and Risk

Based Inspection Recent Developments

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

GOM Platform Activity

Source: MMS, B.J. Kruse, III

SNAME Texas Section Meeting, 08 December 2009

GOM Platform Decommissioning

GoM Platform Vintage (Years)

Total ~ 3,900 Platforms

Source: O'Connor, BP, M. Lalani, June 2007

API RPs and Guidelines

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

API 2HINS Inspection Initiator Process

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

Destroyed GoM Platforms

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

Platform Structural Analysis

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

Safety format (LRFD vs. WSD)

Load and Resistance

Implement IMP for the

Learning and Improvement

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

Principles of Asset Integrity Management

Why SIM - Ageing Problem?

Ageing & Need for SIM & RBI

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

What is Risk-Based Inspection (RBI)?

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

ORBIT : Main principles

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

Consequence of Failure Category

Air Gap Wave-in-Deck

WSD/ASD and LRFD

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

The Two Main Steps of RBI

Expected RISK Cost

Expected Inspection Cost

Expected Repair Cost

Total Expected Risk Cost

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

The Key Concepts of RBI

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

Consequence models estimate:

Heat radiation levels from fires

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

Marine Safety Regulations

Formal Safety Assessment

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

HAZOP (hazard and operability study)

FMECA (failure modes, effects and criticality

SWIFT (structured what-if analysis)

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

Bow tie diagrams

Rules and standards

SIM and RBI Recent Developments

Increasing individual risks and societal concerns

Historical data analysis

Fault tree analysis

Event tree analysis

Risks and uncertainties

Influences on Technique Selection