CHEM-NET FACTS

1 novemBER 2013

CHEMICAL MARKET INSIGHT AND FORESIGHT - ON A SINGLE PAGE

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Caustic Soda
Demand in the US market is still being
described as stable. Domestic pricing has
mostly rolled over this month in spite of the
threat of tightening supply. Export pricing
levels have eased and spot barges pricing
has also now come down slightly. Although
production will be eased back in line with
reducing chlorine demand there does not
appear to have been any momentum for the
proposed price increase.
European producers had been targeting
price increases for Q4, based on a tightening
supply scenario. However, the current market
balance and some competitive activity have
resulted in an overall reduction in price for Q4
contracts.
The markets in Asia mostly appear to be in
balance and pricing levels have been holding.
Some producers are now coming back on line
after outages and there are concerns that this
could put downward pressure on pricing levels
although weak chlorine demand and poor
margins could help to counter this. Domestic
pricing in China has come down due to weaker
demand.
Short-Term Price Trends

Sep-2013
$/ST
560-600
535-560
390-420
$/ton
300-350
/ton
500-530
$/ton
320-340
$/ton
315-330
325-330
Rmb/ton
2233-2300

US DOMESTIC PRICES
Monthly Contract, NE USA, Bulk
Regular Distributors, Gulf
Regular Spot Barge, Gulf
US EXPORT PRICES
Spot, Gulf
WEST EUROPE DOMESTIC PRICES
Market, RTC
WEST EUROPE EXPORT PRICES
Spot Export
ASIA PRICES
Spot Export, Northeast Asia
Spot Export, China
Market, East China
= diaphragm

= dry basis

Oct-2013
$/ST
560-600
535-560
380-410
$/ton
280-320
/ton
480-500
$/ton
280-320
$/ton
310-330
330-340
Rmb/ton
2167-2300

Oct-2013
$/ton
617-661
590-617
419-452

EXW
FOB
FOB

Short-Term
Price Trend

FOB

$/ton
655-682
/ton
205-235
$/ton

DDP
FOB

FOB
FOB

$/ton
355-377

EXW

Rmb/ton prices include VAT at 17%

US Dollars per Ton

CAUSTIC SODA PRICES : 2 YEAR SPAN

525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
ov
N

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N

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13

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Product

Location

Definition

Caustic Soda
Caustic Soda
Caustic Soda

United States
West Europe
Asia

Export Spot, Gulf FOB

Spot Export FOB
Spot Export Northeast Asia FOB

US Dollars per Ton

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CAUSTIC SODA PRICES : 10 YEAR SPAN

1000
900
800

Although spot pricing in the US has eased

back slightly in the last month, the easing back
of production in the coming months as chlorine
demand declines should help to prevent much
further slippage on pricing although if demand
eases there could yet be some competitive
situations developing.
European caustic soda pricing is now fixed
for the quarter and so only spot pricing can be
adjusted. Chlorine demand is expected to ease
and so operating rates should come down and
this should prevent prices from slipping and in
fact some producers have already suggested
that there is now limited availability and prices
should go up.
Caustic soda pricing levels in Asia are likely
to remain fairly stable as, although demand
is weak, operating rates should be cut back
further due to weak demand and this will
probably leave the market in overall balance.
Chinese domestic pricing however is expected
to reduce further in the winter months as
demand falls.

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Product

Location

Definition

Caustic Soda
Caustic Soda
Caustic Soda

United States
West Europe
Asia

Export Spot, Gulf FOB

Spot Export FOB
Spot Export Northeast Asia FOB

US Dollars per Ton

2012

2013

CHLORINE PRICES : 2 YEAR SPAN

325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
ov
N

2011

In Conversion to US$ the 17% VAT Element in Chinese Rmb Prices has been Excluded for Comparative Purposes

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N

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20

Product

Location

Definition

Chlorine
Chlorine
Chlorine

United States
West Europe
China

Domestic Liquid Spot DDP

Liquid (chemical use) DDP
East China EXW

13

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