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Meeting Government Financing

Needs in Turbulent Times

Ministry of Finance, Japan

Asian Regional Public Debt Management Forum


Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
November 3-5, 2009

0
Contents
Introduction ・・・ 2

1. JGB Issuance Plan FY2009 ・・・ 8


Recent Situation of Primary
2. ・・・ 13
Market and Secondary Market
3. Market Liquidity of JGB ・・・ 16

4. Enhancing Market Liquidity ・・・ 22

5. Appendix ・・・ 29
1
Diversification of JGB Products
(\ trillion)
before 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (FY) Market Issuance Debt Outstanding
Plan (FY2009・ (as of Mar.31
revised in April) 2009)

Nov. 2007- 40 40-year 1.1 0.7

Sep. 1999- 30 30-year 3.4 16.4


20 20-year 12.6 86.2

Jun. 2000- 15 15-year CMT 0.3 41.9

10 10-year 24.6 278.5


10-year
Mar. 2004- Inflation-indexed 0.3 8.5

Feb. 2000- 5 5-year 26.7 138.3

2 2-year 27.6 48.2

Apr. 1999- TBs(1-year) 26.4


30.7
TBs(6-month) 0.9
Auctions for
Apr. 2004- Enhanced-liquidity 6.3 -
10-year JGB
Mar. 2003- for Retail Investors - 16.8
5-year JGB
Jan. 2004- for Retail Investors - 10.8

40 30 20 15 10 5 2 - JGBs which retail investor can buy

2
Outstanding JGBs
(\ trillion)
721.0
670.6 681.3 677.0 Total: 721
700
666.3
FILP Bonds
129.1
620.6
129
139.8 131.1
600 139.4 138.9
548.8
121.6
496.7 Special Deficit-
592.0
Financing Bonds
500 91.8
545.9
350
436.2 526.9 531.7 541.5
75.6

499.0
367.5 43.8 349.9
400 288.5 304.5
279.9 321.0
457.0
421.1 257.6
331.7 General
230.6 bonds
392.4
295.2 199.1
300 176.1 592
258.0 158.4
134.5
107.8
83.1
200
Construction
Bonds
241.4 247.0 243.2 236.9 242.1 242
216.3 222.0 226.4 224.9
100 197.2 209.1
174.9 187.4

0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 (FY)
(Note1) Figures are based on nominal amount. FY1965-FY2007: settlement, FY2008: estimate,
FY2009: estimate (based on the revised issuance plan at April 2009)
(Note2) The figure of Special Deficit-Financing Bonds includes government bonds converted from
Japan National Oil bonds, etc. 3
Basic Philosophy of the JGB Issuance Plan
 Predictability
The JGB issuance plan for the fiscal year is to be formulated and
announced at the end of the previous year, which provide market
participants with the predictability for the market issuance.

 Flexibility
Responding to the change of the market conditions after formulating
the issuance plan, we would flexibly review and revise the plan by
conferring with the market participants.

 Transparency
The JGB issuance plan is to be formulated in consultation with the
market participants, including primary dealers and investors, so that
the plan could reflect market needs properly. The record of such
consultation is to be made public on the JGB web-pages.
4
Dialogue with the Market
 The Advisory Council on Government Debt Management
Obtain opinions and advices on the government debt management
policy from intellectuals in the private sector
This council has 17 members. (as of October 14, 2009)

 The Meeting of JGB Market Special Participants


Dialogue with the so-called “primary dealers” composed of 4 banks and
19 securities companies (as of October 1, 2009)

 The Meeting of JGB Investors


Dialogue with institutional investors such as insurance companies,
pension funds, banks and foreign investors
This meeting has 3 professors and 16 companies. (as of April 13, 2009)

5
Process of the JGB Issuance Plan FY2009

November 14, 2008


Meeting of the JGB Market Special Participants

November 18, 2008


Meeting of JGB Investors

December 3, 2008
Advisory council on Government Debt Management

December 12, 2008


Meeting of the JGB Market Special Participants

JGB Issuance Plan FY2009 (December 20, 2008)


6
Changes of Market Issuance Plan by JGB
Types in FY2008
FY2008 (Initial) FY2008 (revised in August) FY2008 (revised in September) FY2008 (revised in October) FY2008 (revised in December)

(a) (b) (b)-(a) (c) (c)-(b) (d) (d)-(c) (e) (e)-(d) (e)-(a)

\0.2 \0.2
40-year Bonds × 2 \0.4 trillion × 2 \0.4 trillion - \0.2 trillion × 2 \0.4 trillion - \0.2 trillion × 2 \0.4 trillion - \0.2 trillion × 3 \0.6 trillion +\0.2 trillion +\0.2 trillion
trillion trillion

\0.6 trillion × 4
\0.6 \0.6
30-year Bonds × 4 \2.4 trillion × 4 \2.4 trillion - \0.6 trillion × 4 \2.4 trillion - \0.6 trillion × 4 \2.4 trillion - \2.9 trillion +\0.5 trillion +\0.5 trillion
trillion trillion
\0.5 trillion × 1

\0.8 trillion × 7 \0.8 trillion × 7


\0.8 \0.8
20-year Bonds × 12 \9.6 trillion × 12 \9.6 trillion - \0.8 trillion × 12 \9.6 trillion - \10.1 trillion +\0.5 trillion \10.1 trillion - +\0.5 trillion
trillion trillion
\0.9 trillion × 5 \0.9 trillion × 5

\1.9 \1.9
10-year Bonds × 12 \22.8 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - -
trillion trillion

\1.9 trillion × 9
\1.9 \1.9
5-year Bonds × 12 \22.8 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \23.1 trillion +\0.3 trillion +\0.3 trillion
trillion trillion
\2.0 trillion × 3
\1.7 \1.7 trillion × 6
× 6 \1.7 trillion × 6 \1.7 trillion × 6
trillion
2-year Bonds \1.7 trillon × 12 \20.4 trillion \21.0 trillion +\0.6 trillion \21.0 trillion - \21.0 trillion - \1.8 trillion × 4 \21.4 trillion +\0.4 trillion +\1.0 trillion
\1.8
× 6 \1.8 trillion × 6 \1.8 trillion × 6 \2.0 trillion × 2
trillion
\1.4 \1.4 trillion × 6
× 6 \1.4 trillion × 6 \1.4 trillion × 6
\1.4 trillion
TBs (1-year) × 12 \16.8 trillion \17.4 trillion +\0.6 trillion \17.4 trillion - \17.4 trillion - \1.5 trillion × 3 \18.0 trillion +\0.6 trillion +\1.2 trillion
trillion \1.5
× 6 \1.5 trillion × 6 \1.5 trillion × 6 \1.7 trillion × 3
trillion

TBs (6-month) \3.3 trillion \3.3 trillion - \3.3 trillion - \3.3 trillion - \3.0 trillion ▲\0.3 trillion ▲\0.3 trillion

15-year
\0.6 \0.6
Floating-rate × 4 \2.4 trillion × 2 \1.2 trillion ▲\1.2 trillion \0.6 trillion × 2 \1.2 trillion - \0.6 trillion × 2 \1.2 trillion - \0.6 trillion × 1 \0.6 trillion ▲\0.6 trillion ▲\1.8 trillion
trillion trillion
Bonds

\0.5 trillion × 5
10-year Inflation- \0.5 \0.5
× 6 \3.0 trillion × 6 \3.0 trillion - \2.8 trillion ▲\0.2 trillion \0.5 trillion × 4 \2.0 trillion ▲\0.8 trillion \0.5 trillion × 3 \1.5 trillion ▲\0.5 trillion ▲\1.5 trillion
Indexed Bonds trillion trillion
\0.3 trillion × 1

\0.1 trillion × 11 \0.1 trillion × 8


Auctions for \0.1 \0.1
× 12 \1.2 trillion × 12 \1.2 trillion - \0.1 trillion × 14 \1.4 trillion +\0.2 trillion \1.7 trillion +\0.3 trillion \2.3 trillion +\0.6 trillion +\1.1 trillion
Enhanced-liquidity trillion trillion
\0.15 trillion × 4 \0.15 trillion × 10

Total to the +\1.2 +\1.2


Market
\105.1 trillion \105.1 trillion - \105.1 trillion - \105.1 trillion - \106.3 trillion
trillion trillion

(Note1) In addition to the above plan, 40-year, 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, 2-year, 15-year floating-rate and 10-year inflation-indexed bonds will be issued via Non-competitive price Auction Ⅱ, which will be held for JGB MarketSpecial Participants after the price(yield)-
competitive auction(the amount assignable to each Special Participant will not exceed 10% of the amount awarded to it in the Competitive price Auction and Non-Competitive price AuctionⅠ or the yield-Competitive Auction [10%→15% from Jan. 2009]).

(Note2) With regard to 6-month TBs, only the total amount is listed becauseTBs and FBs are expected to be issued as unified bills (Treasury Discount Bills) starting in Feb. 2009.

7
1. JGB Issuance Plan FY2009
○ In the FY2009 initial plan, JGB total issuance was set to be 132.3 trillion yen,
and the JGB market issuance (Calendar Base) to be 113.3 trillion yen (6.0
trillion yen, and 8.2 trillion yen increase from the initial issuance plan for
FY2008 respectively.) Both amounts will be increased for the first time in 4
years.

○ Corresponding to formulation of the Supplementary Budget for FY2009,


JGB Issuance Plan FY2009 was revised on April 27.
・JGB total issuance:132.3 trillion yen → 149.2 trillion yen (+16.9 trillion yen)
・JGB market issuance:113.3 trillion yen → 130.2 trillion yen (+16.9 trillion yen)

○ Issuance is balanced from short to super-long maturity zones, considering the


market needs and trends, from the viewpoint of minimizing the adverse market
impacts.

○ The average maturity of market issuance has been extended and is currently
7 years and 6 months.

8
1-1. Historical Changes in JGB Issuance Plan
(trillion yen)
200

FILP Bonds
Refunding Bonds
1 6 9 .5 1 67 .3 New Financial Resource Bonds
1 6 5 .0 1 6 5 .4 1 6 2 .9 1 6 1 .2

31.3 28.3 1 4 9 .2
28.2 27.2
150 27.2 25.6 1 4 3 .8 1 4 3 .6 1 4 1 .3
13 8 .0 14.1
18.6 18.6 1 32 .3
16.8 10.7
1 2 6 .3 1 2 6 .7 8.0
8.4 8.4

100
91.0
103.8 105.6
105.5 108.3
108.2 108.1 94.1 91.0
99.8 99.6 99.2
92.5 92.5

50

44.1
34.4 33.5 31.3 33.2 33.3
30.0 27.5 27.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.7

0
05 06 07 08 1st 2nd 09
initial revision actual initial revision actual initial revision actual initial revision initial revision
revision

9
1-2. Market Issuance Plan by JGB Types
(\ trillion)
130.2
6.3 0.3

117.8 118.3 113.3 0.3


120
113.9 113.0
7.2 8.8 17.1
6.0 109.6
106.3
3.6 0.3
105.6 5.4
1.2 2.5 3.4 1.2 105.1 2.3
0.6
5.5 0.1 7.0 0.8 9.2 2.0 10.4 1.2 3.0 0.3
14.6
100 3.0
5.1 11.9 12.0 2.4
92.5 13.6 1.5 24.6 Auction for
12.4 Enhanced-liquidity
3.6 22.8 22.8
85.3 3.8
21.6 22.8
2.8 22.8 15-year CMT
80 3.1 22.8
22.8
22.8
20.4 22.8
10-year JGBi
67.9 17.8
2.9
20-year, 30-year,
60 40-year
16.8 43.8 44.4 54.3
42.4 44.4 10-year
46.0 44.4 48.0
2.4 32.0 37.1 44.4
43.2 44.5
40 2-~6-year
21.2
33.2 16.1

Short-term
12.0 1.6 (Treasury Bills)
10.5
20
6.8 31.0 34.2 33.4
27.0 29.6 27.6 29.9 27.3
24.8 22.8 23.7
20.1 21.0
17.0
12.8
0
(FY)
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 08 09 09
(Initial) (Actual) (Initial) (Revised in April)

(Note) FY1997~2007: Actual figures


FY2009: Figure based on the revised issuance plan announced in Apr. 2009. 10
1-3. Market Issuance Plan by JGB Types
FY2008 FY2008 FY2009
(Initial) (Rivised in December) (Initial)
(a) (b) (b)-(a) (c) (c)-(a)

40-year \0.2 trillion × 2 \0.4 trillion \0.2 trillion × 3 \0.6 trillion + \0.2 trillion \0.2 trillion × 4 \0.8 trillion + \0.4 trillion

\0.6 trillion × 4
30-year \0.6 trillion × 4 \2.4 trillion \2.9 trillion + \0.5 trillion \0.5 trillion × 6 \3.0 trillion + \0.6 trillion
\0.5 trillion × 1
\0.8 trillion × 7
20-year \0.8 trillion × 12 \9.6 trillion \10.1 trillion + \0.5 trillion \0.9 trillion × 12 \10.8 trillion + \1.2 trillion
\0.9 trillion × 5

10-year \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion -

\1.9 trillion × 9
5-year \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion \23.1 trillion + \0.3 trillion \2.0 trillion × 12 \24.0 trillion + \1.2 trillion
\2.0 trillion × 3
\1.7 trillion × 6
2-year \1.7 trillion × 12 \20.4 trillion \1.8 trillion × 4 \21.4 trillion + \1.0 trillion \2.0 trillion × 12 \24.0 trillion + \3.6 trillion
\2.0 trillion × 2
\1.4 trillion × 6
Treasury Discount Bills
\1.4 trillion × 12 \16.8 trillion \1.5 trillion × 3 \18.0 trillion + \1.2 trillion \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion + \6.0 trillion
(1-year)
\1.7 trillion × 3

Treasury Discount Bills


\3.3 trillion \3.0 trillion ▲ \0.3 trillion \0.9 trillion ▲ \2.4 trillion
(6-month)

15-year Floating-rate \0.6 trillion × 4 \2.4 trillion \0.6 trillion × 1 \0.6 trillion ▲ \1.8 trillion \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion ▲ \2.1 trillion

10-year Inflation-Indexed \0.5 trillion × 6 \3.0 trillion \0.5 trillion × 3 \1.5 trillion ▲ \1.5 trillion \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion ▲ \2.7 trillion

\0.1 trillion × 8
Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity \0.1 trillion × 12 \1.2 trillion \2.3 trillion + \1.1 trillion \0.15 trillion × 24 \3.6 trillion + \2.4 trillion
\0.15 trillion × 10

Total to the Market \105.1 trillion \106.3 trillion + \1.2 trillion \113.3 trillion + \8.2 trillion

Note 1: In addition to the above plan, 40-year, 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, 2-year, 15-year floating-rate and 10-year inflation-indexed bonds will be issued via Non-competitive price Auction Ⅱ, which will be held for JGB Market
Special Participants after the price(yield)-competitive auction(the amount assignable to each Market Special Participant will not exceed 15% of the amount awarded to it in the Competitive price Auction and Non-Competitive price
AuctionⅠ or the yeild-Competitive Auction [10%→15% from Jan. 2009]).
Note 2: With regard to 6-month Treasury Discount Bills, only the total amount is listed because TBs and FBs are expected to be issued as unified bills (Treasury Discount Bills) starting in Feb. 2009.

Note 3: The issuance scheduled in FY2009 of the 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds and 15-year Floating-rate Bonds could be called off, taking in the market conditions.

11
1-4. Revised Market Issuance Plan by JGB
Types (Revised in April 27)
<Market Issuance Plan by JGB Types> 

FY2009 (Initial) FY2009 (Revised in April)


(a) (b) (b)-(a)
\0.2 trillion × 1
40-year \0.2 trillion × 4 \0.8 trillion \1.1 trillion + \0.3 trillion
\0.3 trillion × 3
\0.5 trillion × 2
30-year \0.5 trillion × 6 \3.0 trillion \3.4 trillion + \0.4 trillion
\0.6 trillion × 4
\0.9 trillion × 3
20-year \0.9 trillion × 12 \10.8 trillion \12.6 trillion + \1.8 trillion
\1.1 trillion × 9
\1.9 trillion × 3
10-year \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion \24.6 trillion + \1.8 trillion
\2.1 trillion × 9
\2.0 trillion × 3
5-year \2.0 trillion × 12 \24.0 trillion \26.7 trillion + \2.7 trillion
\2.3 trillion × 9
\2.0 trillion × 3
2-year \2.0 trillion × 12 \24.0 trillion \27.6 trillion + \3.6 trillion
\2.4 trillion × 9
\1.9 trillion × 3
TBs(1-year) \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion \26.4 trillion + \3.6 trillion
\2.3 trillion × 9

TBs(6-month) \0.9 trillion \0.9 trillion -

15-year Floating-rate \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion -

10-year Inflation-Indexed \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion -

Auctions for Enhanced- \0.15 trillion × 6


\0.15 trillion × 24 \3.6 trillion \6.3 trillion + \2.7 trillion
liquidity \0.3 trillion × 18

Total to the Market \113.3 trillion \130.2 trillion + \16.9 trillion

(Note 1) In addition to the above plan, 40-year, 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, 2-year, 15-year floating-rate and 10-year inflation-indexed bonds will be issued via Non-competitive price Auction Ⅱ, which will be held
for JGB Market Special Participants after the price(yield)-competitive auction(the amount assignable to each Market Special Participant will not exceed 15% of the amount awarded to it in the Competitive price
Auction and Non-Competitive price AuctionⅠ or the yield-Competitive Auction).
(Note 2) With regard to 6-month TBs, only the total amount is listed because TBs and FBs are issued as unified bills (Treasury Discount Bills) since Feb. 2009.
(Note 3) The issuance of the 15-year Floating-rate Bonds and the 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds could be called off, taking in the market conditions.

12
2. Recent Situation of Primary
Market and Secondary Market

○ Auction results

○ Long term interest rate

13
2-1. Bid-to-Cover Ratio
yen
4.50 0.180
Bid-to-Cover Ratio(Average, Left Scale)
Difference between the lowest accepted price and the weighted average price(Average, Right Scale)
4.00 0.160

3.50 0.140

3.00 0.120

2.50 0.100

2.00 0.080

1.50 0.060

1.00 0.040

0.50 0.020

0.00 0.000
Apr- M Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- M Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- M Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep-
07 ay- 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 ay- 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 ay- 09 09 09 09
07 08 09
(Note) The data is based on 2-year, 5-year, 10-year ,20-year and 30-year bonds. (Issuance month)

14
20
07
/

1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
20 7/1
07
/
20 8/1
07 (%)
20 /9/
07 1
/
20 10/
07 1
/
20 11/
07 1
/1

(right scale)
20 2/1
08

Germany 10-year
/
20 1/1
08
/
20 2/
08 1
/
20 3/1
08
/

(left scale)
20 4/1

Japan 10-year
08
/
UK 10-year
(right Scale)

20 5/1
08
/
20 6/1
08
/
20 7/1
08
/
20 8/1
08
20 /9/
08 1
/
US 10-year
(right scale)

20 10/
08 1
/
2-2. Long-term Interest Rate

20 11
08 /1
/1
20 2/1
09
/
20 1/1
09
20 /2/
09 1
/
20 3/1
09
/
20 4/1
U. K. 
U. S. 

09
/
20 5/1
09
/
Oct.15

20 6/1
09
/
20 7/1
09
/
20 8/1
Germany 3.290%
3.580%
3.460%

Japan   1.315%

09
20 /9/
09 1
/1
0/
1
(%)

As of
Oct.15
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0

15
3. Market Liquidity of JGB
○ The shape of the JGB yield curve was distorted and
remained unadjusted for a certain period of time around
the 7 year zone which is the zone of the “cheapest to
deliver” issue for futures transactions.

○ In the market of Inflation-Indexed Bonds and Floating-


rate Bonds, liquidity has been drastically reduced.

16
3-1. Distortion in the Yield Curve
(%) 2009.10.15
2.5 2008.09.16
2008.06.16
2008.03.25
2007.08.09
2007.07.10

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
(Maturity)

【Yield Curve of 10-year and 20-year bonds】


17
H1
6

-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
H 1 . 3 .4
6

(%)
H 1 . 5.4
6
H 1 . 7.4
H 1 6. 9.
6.1 4
H 1 1.4
7
H 1 . 1 .4
7
H 1 . 3 .4
7
H 1 . 5.4
7
H 1 . 7.4
H 1 7. 9.
7 .1 4
H 1 1 .4
8
H 1 . 1 .4
8
H 1 . 3.4
8
H 1 . 5.4
8
H 1 . 7.4
Compound interest rate of 10-year JGB

H 1 8. 9.
8 .1 4
H 1 1 .4
9
H 1 . 1 .4
9
H 1 . 3.4
9
H 1 . 5.4
9
H 1 . 7.4
H 1 9. 9.
9 .1 4
H 2 1 .4
0
Break-even Inflation rate

H 2 . 1 .4
0
H 2 . 3.4
0
H 2 . 5 .4
Compound interest rate of

0
Inflation-Indexed Bonds, and the BEI rate

10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds

H 2 . 7.4
H 2 0. 9.
0.1 4
H 2 1 .4
1
H 2 . 1 .4
1
3-2.Interest Rate of 10-year Bonds and 10-year

H 2 . 3.4
1
H 2 . 5 .4
1
H 2 . 7.4
1. 9
.4
1.132%
2.258%

▲1.126%

As of
Oct.15

18
20
07
/

84.0
85.0
86.0
87.0
88.0
89.0
90.0
91.0
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
2 0 4/ 1
07
/5
20 /1
07
/
2 0 6/ 1
07
/7
20 /1
07
/8
20 /1
07
2 0 /9/
07 1
/1
20 0/
07 1
/
2 0 11 /
07 1

15Y48th(α▲20bp)
15Y47th(α▲45bp)
15Y46th(α▲40bp)
15Y45th(α▲45bp)
15Y44th(α▲45bp)
/1
2

15Y32th(α▲101bp)
2 0 /1
08
/1
20 /1
08
/
2 0 2/ 1
08
/3
20 /1
08
/
2 0 4/ 1
08
/5
20 /1
08
/
2 0 6/ 1
08
/7
20 /1
08
/8
20 /1
08
/
2 0 9/
08 1
/1
20 0/
08 1
/
2 0 11 /
08 1
/1
2
2 0 /1
09
/1
20 /1
09
/
2 0 2/ 1
09
/3
20 /1
09
/
2 0 4/ 1
09
/5
20 /1
09
/
2 0 6/ 1
09
/7
20 /1
09
/8
20 /1
09
3-3. Market Price of 15-year Floating-rate Bonds

2 0 /9/
09 1
/1
0/
1
32th
48th

Oct.15
Oct.15

As of
95.10yen
103.35yen

Oct.15

19
3-4. Market Size of 10-year JGBi
 Total issue size of 10-year JGBi (Calendar Base)
FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007

\0.1 tri. \0.8 tri. \2.0 tri. \2.5 tri. \3.0 tri.

FY2008 FY2008 FY2008 FY2008 FY2009


(Initial) (revised in Sep.) (revised in Oct.) (revised in Dec.) (Initial)

\3.0 tri. \2.8 tri. \2.0 tri. \1.5 tri. \0.3 tri.

 Outstanding amount of 10-year JGBi

Mar.2004 Mar.2005 Mar.2006 Mar.2007 Mar.2008 Dec. 2008 Mar. 2009 Jun. 2009

\0.1 tri. \0.9 tri. \3.0 tri. \5.5 tri. \8.4 tri. \9.5 tri. \8.5 tri. \7.9 tri.

20
3-5. Market Size of 15-year CMT
 Total issue size of 15-year CMT (Calendar Base)
FY2005 FY2005 FY2006 FY2006 FY2007 FY2007
(Initial) (revised in Sep.) (Initial) (revised in Dec.) (Initial) (revised in Sep.)

\9.0 tri. \8.8 tri. \7.8 tri. \5.5 tri. \4.0 tri. \3.4 tri.

FY2008 FY2008 FY2008 FY2009


(Initial) (revised in Aug.) (revised in Dec.) (Initial)

\2.4 tri. \1.2 tri. \0.6 tri. \0.3 tri.

 Outstanding amount of 15-year CMT

Mar.2004 Mar.2005 Mar.2006 Mar.2007 Mar.2008 Dec. 2008 Mar. 2009 Jun. 2009

\17.9 tri. \25.3 tri. \34.2 tri. \39.6 tri. \42.7 tri. \42.5 tri. \41.9 tri. \41.5 tri.

21
4. Enhancing Market Liquidity
Buy-back
・The total Buy-back amount in FY2009:
4 trillion yen
・Focus on 15-year floating-rate bonds and
10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds

Regular Redemption
Debt
発行当局
Management Market
Office Regular Issuance

Auction for Enhanced-liquidity


・The total amount in FY2009:6.3 trillion yen
・ For the first quarter of FY2009 issues
near the current issues (issues within 6-
months after issuance are excluded) will
be added to the target issues.

22
4-1. Auction for Enhanced-liquidity
 MOF started the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity in April 2006

 MOF conducts the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity


→ 1.2 trillion yen/year (FY2008 Initial)
→ 1.4 trillion yen/year (revised in Sep. 2008)
→ 1.7 trillion yen/year (revised in Oct. 2008)
→ 2.3 trillion yen/year (revised in Dec. 2008)
→ 3.6 trillion yen/year (FY2009 Initial)
→ 6.3 trillion yen/year (revised in Apr. 2009)

 Target Issues
 JGBs with approx. 11-16 years remaining to maturity (Apr. 2006-)
 Expanded to JGBs with remaining maturities from 6 to 29-year (Apr. 2008-)
 In FY2009, target issue will be reviewed on a quarterly basis.
 For the first quarter of FY2009 issues near the current issues (issues within 6-months
after issuance are excluded) will be added to the target issues. (Apr. 2009-)
 Further expanded the target zones to JGBs with remaining maturities from 5 ‐29 year. (Jul. 2009-)

 Special Auction for Enhanced-liquidity


Established a scheme of Special Auction for Enhanced-liquidity in FY2008 in order to
respond to such temporal lack of market liquidity as seen in the squeezes.

23
4-2. Target Zones of the Auction for
Enhanced-liquidity (for the Second quarter of FY2009)
①Remaining maturity: approx. 5-~15-year
6,000 (billion yen)

5,000 Excluded issues

Frouting amount in the market (excluded amount issued by


4,000 the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)
Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
0
1

2
3
29

30

5
6
7

8
9
31
32

0
1
2

3
33

4
5
34

35

7
8
36
37

0
1

2
38
39

3
4

5
6
40

7
8

9
0

1
41

42
43
44

45
46

47
48
49

50
51

52
53

54
55
56

57
58

59
60
61

62
63

64
65

66
67
68

69
70

71
72
73

74
75
27
27

27
27

27

27
27
27

27
27

28
28
28

28

28
28

28

28
28

28

29
29

29

29
29

29
29

29
29

29
30

30
JL

JL

JL
JL

JL

JL

JL

JL
JL

JL
JL

JL

JL

JL
JL
JL

JL
JL

JL
JL
JL

JL
JL

JL
JL

JL
JL
JL

JL
JL

JL
JL
JL

JL
JL

JL
JL

JL
JL
JL

JL
JL

JL
JL
JL

JL
JL
②Remaining maturity: approx. 16-~29-year
2,500
(billion yen)
Excluded issues

2,000 Floating amount in the market (excluding amount issued


by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)
Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity
1,500

1,000

500

0
0

1
76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30
10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

11

11
JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX

JX
JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

JL

(Note) JL shows 20-year JGBs. JX shows 30-year JGBs. Outstanding amount is at end of Mar.2009 24
4-3. Buy-back Program
 Expanded to include all fixed-rate JGBs starting from Jan. 2006.
 Increased Buy-back amount from 1.2 trillion yen/year to 1.8 trillion yen/year from Apr. 2006.
 Expanded to include all 15-year Floating-rate bonds and 10-year Inflation-Indexed bonds from
Dec. 2006.
 Increased Buy-back amount from 1.8 trillion yen/year to about 3.55 trillion yen/year, focusing on
15-year Floating-rate bonds and 10-year Inflation-Indexed bonds in FY2008.
 Increased Buy-back amount to about 4.0 trillion yen/year, focusing on 15-year Floating-rate
bonds and 10-year Inflation-Indexed bonds in FY2009. Actual amount will be decided on a
quarterly basis taking in the market conditions.
(trillion yen/year)
4.0

(Note) The Bonds listed below are


3.55 excluded from the Buy-back
program
3.31
1. 40-year JGBs
3.0
2. JGBs with remaining
maturities equal to or
less than 1 year
10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 3. JGBs that have been
15-year Floating-rate Bonds successfully bid through
1.8
the Auctions of
Enhanced-Liquidity
1.2
during the recent 6
months before the Buy-
back month.
0.6 Fixed-rate Bonds
4. Non-Marketable Bonds.
Fixed-rate Bonds
(with redemption in
FY2008)

2006 Jan. 2006 Apr. 2006 Dec. 2007 Apr. 2008 Apr. 2008 Oct. 2008 Dec. 2009 Apr.
25
4-4. JGB Buy-back Program FY2008
(Initial→August revision)
(billion yen)
Auction FY2008(initial, first half) FY2008(revised in August)
2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS 2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS
Month
30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon) 30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon)

Apr.08 ― Approx. 150 Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 150 Approx. 80 ―

May.08 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 80 ― Approx. 150 ― Approx. 80 ―

Jun.08 Approx. 140 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 20 Approx. 140 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 20

Jul.08 ― Approx. 150 Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 150 Approx. 80 ―

Aug.08 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 80 ― Approx. 150 ― Approx. 80 ―

Sep.08 Approx. 140 Approx. 150 ― ― Approx. 120 Approx. 150 ― ―

Oct.08 ― Approx. 200 Approx. 80 ―


Total Amount for FY2008
Nov.08 3 trillion yen Approx. 100 ― Approx. 80 Approx. 20

Dec.08 Approx. 100 Approx. 200 ― ―

Jan.09 Allocation for the second half ― Approx. 200 Approx. 80 ―

Feb.09 Actual amount is to be decided Approx. 100 ― Approx. 80 ―


in Jul. - Sep. period.
Mar.09 Approx. 100 Approx. 200 ― ―

Total ― Approx. 960 Approx. 1,400 Approx. 640 Approx. 40

26
4-5. JGB Buy-back Program FY2008
(Revised in September and October)

(billion yen)
Auction FY2008(revised in September) FY2008(revised in October)
2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS 2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS
Month 30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon) 30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon)

Apr.08 ― Approx. 150 Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 150 Approx. 80 ―

May.08 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 80 ― Approx. 150 ― Approx. 80 ―

Jun.08 Approx. 140 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 20 Approx. 140 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 20

Jul.08 ― Approx. 150 Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 150 Approx. 80 ―

Aug.08 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 80 ― Approx. 150 ― Approx. 80 ―

Sep.08 Approx. 120 Approx. 150 ― ― Approx. 120 Approx. 150 ― ―

Oct.08 ― Approx. 200 Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 200 Approx. 180 ―

Nov.08 - ― Approx. 80 Approx. 20 ― Approx. 100 Approx. 200 Approx. 20

Dec.08 Approx. 120 Approx. 200 Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 200 Approx. 190 ―

Jan.09 ― Approx. 200 Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 200 Approx. 120 ―

Feb.09 Approx. 120 ― Approx. 80 ― ― ― Approx. 120 ―

Mar.09 - Approx. 200 Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 200 Approx. 120 ―

Total Approx. 800 Approx. 1,400 Approx. 800 Approx. 40 Approx. 560 Approx. 1,500 Approx. 1,250 Approx. 40

27
4-6. JGB Buy-back Program
FY2008 (Revised in December) and FY2009

(billion yen)
Auction FY2008(revised in December) FY2009
Month 2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS 2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS
30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon) 30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon)

Apr.08 ― Approx. 150 Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 100 Approx. 220


May.08 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 140 Approx. 220
Jun.08 Approx. 140 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 20 ― Approx. 100 Approx. 220
Jul.08 ― Approx. 150 Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 120 Approx.220
Aug.08 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 80 Approx.240
To be
Sep.08 Approx. 120 Approx. 150 ― ― ― Approx. 120 Approx. 220 conducted,
responding to
Oct.08 ― Approx. 200 Approx. 180 ― ― Approx. 100 Approx.240 the market
needs.
Nov.08 ― Approx. 100 Approx. 200 Approx. 20 ― Approx. 120 Approx.200
Dec.08 ― Approx. 200 Approx. 190 ― ― Approx. 100 Approx. 240
Jan.09 ― Approx. 130 Approx. 200 ― Allocation
Actual amount will be decided on a
Feb.09 ― Approx. 130 Approx. 200 ―
quarterly basis taking in the market
Mar.09 ― Approx. 140 Approx. 200 ― conditions.
Total Approx. 560 Approx. 1,500 Approx. 1,490 Approx. 40 Approx.4 trillion yen —

28
5.Appendix
○ GDP
○ Industrial Production
○ Price
○ Employment
○ Japanese Government Bond

29
5-1. Real GDP and Level of Contribution

(%) Change from the previous quarter. (Seasonally adjusted)


3.0
CY2008: -0.7%
FY2008: -3.2% 2009 2nd 2009 1st
2.0 Quarter Quarter
Real GDP 0.9% -3.1%
1.0 (Annualized rate) 3.7% -11.7%
Growth Rate Growth Rate
0.0 (contribution) (contribution)
Private 0.8% -1.2%
-1.0 Consumption (0.5%) (-0.7%)
Private Non-Resi. -4.3% -8.5%
-2.0
Investment (-0.6%) (-1.3%)
Private Resi. -9.5% -5.7%
Investment (-0.3%) (-0.2%)
-3.0
- -
Private Inventory
(-0.5%) (-0.2%)
-4.0 1.2% 0.6%
Public Demand
(0.3%) (0.1%)
Net Exports Public Demand Private Residential Investment
-5.0 - -
Private Inventory Private Non-Resi. Investment Private Consumption Net Exports
Real GDP
(1.6%) (-0.9%)
-6.0
Nominal GDP -0.2% -2.6%
-7.0
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(Source) Cabinet Office

30
5-2. Japanese economic outlook
(% change from the previous year)

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010

Government - Economic Outlook


Real GDP -3.3 -3.3 -

(July 2009)
Nominal GDP -3.6 -3.1 -

Bank of Japan - Forecast of the Majority of


Real GDP -3.2 -3.4 1.0
Policy Board Members (July 2009)
CPI
1.2 -1.3 -1.0
*the median of the forecasts of Policy Board members
(excluding fresh food)

(% change from the previous year)

CY2008 CY2009 CY2010


IMF - World Economic Outlook
(October 2009)
Real GDP -0.7 -5.4 1.7
OECD - Economic Outlook
(June 2009)
Real GDP -0.7 -6.8 0.7

31
5-3. Industrial Production
(Seasonally adjusted, CY2005=100)
115

105

95

85

75

65

0
55
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2006 2007 2008 2009

(Source) Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

32
5-4. Exports Volume Index
(2005=100)

Total Export To U.S. To EU To Asia

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2006 2007 2008 2009

(Source) Ministry of Finance (three month's moving average)


33
5-5. Exports by Area (Country)
/4-6 /7-9 /10-12 2009/1-3 2009/4 2009/5 2009/6 2009/7 2009/8
trillion yen trillion yen trillion yen trillion yen trillion yen trillion yen trillion yen trillion yen trillion yen

Share Share Share Share Change from


Share Share Share Share Share
Change from the Change from the Change from the Change from the Change from the Change from the Change from the Change from the
the
previous year previous year previous year previous year previous year previous year previous year previous year
previous year

3.9 3.9 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8


North America 18.7% 17.8% 19.3% 17.5% 16.9% 17.4% 17.9% 16.0% 17.1%
▲11.1% ▲14.1% ▲29.4% ▲53.7% ▲45.9 ▲44.8 ▲37.7 ▲38.9 ▲34.4
2.9 2.9 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5
Western Europe 14.0% 13.4% 13.5% 14.5% 13.7% 13.6% 13.0% 12.0% 12.0%
▲3.4% ▲2.4% ▲29.1% ▲50.5% ▲42.9 ▲43.2 ▲37.3 ▲43.9 ▲42.3
10.5 11.2 8.3 5.6 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6
Asia 50.4% 50.7% 48.5% 50.2% 54.5% 55.9% 54.5% 55.8% 57.0%
5.4% 7.3% ▲22.5% ▲43.9% ▲33.4 ▲35.5 ▲30.1 ▲29.9 ▲30.6
Eastern Europe 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
3.9% 4.0% 3.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.8%
/Russia 36.2% 37.6% ▲16.7% ▲70.6% ▲73.2 ▲76.2 ▲72.5 ▲75.4 ▲70.9
0.8 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Middle East 3.7% 4.5% 5.3% 4.5% 3.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% 3.1%
11.9% 29.5% ▲0.2% ▲40.8% ▲42.4 ▲47.4 ▲50.2 ▲47.2 ▲53.3
1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Latin America 4.8% 5.3% 5.6% 6.9% 5.0% 4.9% 5.7% 6.0% 5.3%
1.8% 10.9% ▲11.0% ▲30.0% ▲32.7 ▲36.4 ▲32.5 ▲25.5 ▲35.7
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Oceania 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4%
16.5% 9.9% ▲23.6% ▲48.5% ▲37.0 ▲47.4 ▲44.4 ▲46.8 ▲40.1
0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Africa 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3%
7.0% 3.7% ▲9.0% ▲31.4% ▲36.8 ▲50.6 ▲41.3 ▲44.0 ▲43.3
20.9 22.0 17.1 11.2 4.2 4.0 4.6 4.8 4.5
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1.8% 3.2% ▲23.1% ▲46.9% ▲39.1 ▲40.9 ▲35.7 ▲36.5 ▲36.0

(reference)
3.6 3.6 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7
US 17.4% 16.5% 17.9% 16.0% 15.6% 16.0% 16.7% 15.9% 15.7%
▲11.4% ▲14.7% ▲29.7% ▲54.2% ▲45.9 ▲49.1 ▲42.1 ▲44.0 ▲39.2
China(including 4.6 4.8 3.6 2.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
21.8% 21.8% 21.1% 21.9% 25.2% 26.2% 25.9% 25.2% 25.5%
Hong Kong) 6.6% 6.6% ▲22.6% ▲41.1% ▲27.2 ▲31.3 ▲24.0 ▲27.2 ▲28.5

34
5-6. Price Trends
【Corporate Goods Price Index and Consumer Price Indexes】
(%) Change from the previous year
9.0
CGPI(Corporate Goods Price Index)
CPI (excluding fresh food)
7.0
CPI (excluding fresh food and energy prices)

5.0

3.0 -0.9%

1.0

-1.0

-3.0
-2.4%

-5.0

-8.5%
-7.0

-9.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
(Source)Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Bank of Japan

35
5-7. Trends in Stock Prices since 1985
(JPY)
Nikkei 225
40,000
38,000
36,000
34,000
32,000
30,000
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000

Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05

(USD)
Dow Jones
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05

36
5-8. Employment
(%) Seasonally adjusted
5.9 1.10
5.8
5.7 1.05
5.6 5.5% 1.00
5.5
5.4 0.95
5.3
5.2 0.90
5.1
0.85
5.0
4.9 0.80
4.8 Unemployment rate (left scale)
4.7 0.75
4.6
4.5 0.70
4.4
0.65
4.3
4.2 0.60
4.1
4.0 0.55
Ratio of effective job openings to applicants (right scale)
3.9
0.50
3.8
3.7 0.45
3.6 0.42
3.5 0.40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(Source) Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

37
5-9. JGB Issuance Plan for FY2009
<Breakdown by Fiscal Needs> (Unit: billion yen) <Breakdown by Financing Methods> (Unit: billion yen)
FY2008 FY2008 FY2008 FY2008
(Initial) (2nd supplementary budget) FY2009 (Initial) (Initial) (2nd supplementary budget) FY2009 (Initial)
(a) (b) (b)-(a) (c) (c)-(a) (c)-(b) (a) (b) (b)-(a) (c) (c)-(a) (c)-(b)

New Financial JGB Market Issuance


Resource Bonds 25,348.0 33,168.0 7,820.0 33,294.0 7,946.0 126.0
(Calendar Base) 105,100.0 106,300.0 1,200.0 113,300.0 8,200.0 7,000.0

Non-price Competitive
Refunding Bonds 92,542.0 94,093.7 1,551.7 90,991.4 ▲ 1,550.6 ▲ 3,102.3
Auction Ⅱ 2,514.0 4,282.7 1,768.7 3,870.0 1,356.0 ▲ 412.7

Adjustment by
FILP Bonds 8,400.0 10,700.0 2,300.0 8,000.0 ▲ 400.0 ▲ 2,700.0 Depleting Front-loaded 1,053.7 13,572.3 12,518.7 209.3 ▲844.3 ▲ 13,363.0
Issuance

Subtotal Financed in
Total 126,290.0 137,961.7 11,671.7 132,285.4 5,995.4 ▲ 5,676.3
the Market 108,667.7 124,155.0 15,487.4 117,379.3 8,711.7 ▲ 6,775.7

・The total Buy-back amount from the market will be increased to 4 trillion yen, focusing on the Nonmarketable JGBs for
Retail-Investors 6,200.0 2,384.3 ▲ 3,815.7 2,400.0 ▲ 3,800.0 15.7
10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds and 15-year Floating-rate Bonds (actual amount will be
decided on a quarterly basis taking in the market conditions).
In addition coupon STRIPS Buy-back will be conducted, responding to the market needs. OTC Sales for
Households 1,800.0 1,800.0 ― 1,800.0 ― ―

・ The maximum amount of Interest rate swap transactions in FY2009 is 1.8 trillion yen on notional
principles, taking in the market conditions. Subtotal for
Households 8,000.0 4,184.3 ▲ 3,815.7 4,200.0 ▲ 3,800.0 15.7
・ The maximum amount of front-loaded issuance of Refunding bonds in FY2009 is 12 trillion yen.
Public Sector (Bank
(Note1) Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding. of Japan) 9,622.3 9,622.3 ― 10,706.0 1,083.7 1,083.7

(Note2) JGB Market Issuance (Calender Base) refers to JGBs issued by scheduled auctions from April to next
March.
Total 126,290.0 137,961.7 11,671.7 132,285.4 5,995.4 ▲ 5,676.3
(Note3) Non-price Competitive Auction Ⅱis estimated at 4.5% of the JGB Market Issuance excluding TBs and bonds
issued in Auction for Enhanced-liquidity.

38
5-10. Revised JGB Issuance Plan for FY2009
(Revised on April 27)
<Breakdown by Fiscal Needs> (Unit: billion yen) <Breakdown by Financing Methods> (Unit: billion yen)
FY2009 FY2009 FY2009 FY2009
(Initial) (Supplementary budget) (Initial) (Supplementary budget)

(a) (b) (b)-(a) (a) (b) (b)-(a)


New Financial JGB Market Issuance
33,294.0 44,113.0 10,819.0
(Calendar Base) 113,300.0 130,200.0 16,900.0
Resource Bonds
Non-price Competitive
Construction Bonds 7,579.0 14,911.0 7,332.0
Auction Ⅱ 3,870.0 3,870.0 -

Adjustment by
Special Deficit-
25,715.0 29,202.0 3,487.0 Depleting Front-loaded 209.3 228.3 19.0
financing Bonds Issuance
Subtotal Financed in
Refunding Bonds 90,991.4 90,991.4 - 117,379.3 134,298.3 16,919.0
the Market
Nonmarketable JGBs for
FILP Bonds 8,000.0 14,100.0 6,100.0
Retail-Investors 2,400.0 2,400.0 -

OTC Sales for


Total 132,285.4 149,204.4 16,919.0
Households 1,800.0 1,800.0 -

Subtotal for
4,200.0 4,200.0 -
Households
(Note1) Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding.
Public Sector (Bank
10,706.0 10,706.0 -
(Note2) JGB Market Issuance (Calendar Base) refers to JGBs issued by scheduled auctions from of Japan)
April to next March.

Total 132,285.4 149,204.4 16,919.0

39
5-11. 10-year JGB Yield
(%)
2.000

1.950
08/6/16
1.900
1.880%
1.850

1.800

1.750
1.700
2009/6/11
1.650
1.550%
1.600

1.550
1.500

1.450

1.400
1.350
08/9/16(1.465%)
1.300 Lehman Brothers applied to
08/3/17(1.280%) file under Chapter11 (9/15)
1.250
JP Morgan announced to
1.200 acquire Bear Stearns 10/15
1.150
2008/12/30 1.315% As of
1.165%
1.100 Oct.15
Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct-
07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09

40

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