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Contents
Introduction ・・・ 2
5. Appendix ・・・ 29
1
Diversification of JGB Products
(\ trillion)
before 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (FY) Market Issuance Debt Outstanding
Plan (FY2009・ (as of Mar.31
revised in April) 2009)
2
Outstanding JGBs
(\ trillion)
721.0
670.6 681.3 677.0 Total: 721
700
666.3
FILP Bonds
129.1
620.6
129
139.8 131.1
600 139.4 138.9
548.8
121.6
496.7 Special Deficit-
592.0
Financing Bonds
500 91.8
545.9
350
436.2 526.9 531.7 541.5
75.6
499.0
367.5 43.8 349.9
400 288.5 304.5
279.9 321.0
457.0
421.1 257.6
331.7 General
230.6 bonds
392.4
295.2 199.1
300 176.1 592
258.0 158.4
134.5
107.8
83.1
200
Construction
Bonds
241.4 247.0 243.2 236.9 242.1 242
216.3 222.0 226.4 224.9
100 197.2 209.1
174.9 187.4
0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 (FY)
(Note1) Figures are based on nominal amount. FY1965-FY2007: settlement, FY2008: estimate,
FY2009: estimate (based on the revised issuance plan at April 2009)
(Note2) The figure of Special Deficit-Financing Bonds includes government bonds converted from
Japan National Oil bonds, etc. 3
Basic Philosophy of the JGB Issuance Plan
Predictability
The JGB issuance plan for the fiscal year is to be formulated and
announced at the end of the previous year, which provide market
participants with the predictability for the market issuance.
Flexibility
Responding to the change of the market conditions after formulating
the issuance plan, we would flexibly review and revise the plan by
conferring with the market participants.
Transparency
The JGB issuance plan is to be formulated in consultation with the
market participants, including primary dealers and investors, so that
the plan could reflect market needs properly. The record of such
consultation is to be made public on the JGB web-pages.
4
Dialogue with the Market
The Advisory Council on Government Debt Management
Obtain opinions and advices on the government debt management
policy from intellectuals in the private sector
This council has 17 members. (as of October 14, 2009)
5
Process of the JGB Issuance Plan FY2009
December 3, 2008
Advisory council on Government Debt Management
(a) (b) (b)-(a) (c) (c)-(b) (d) (d)-(c) (e) (e)-(d) (e)-(a)
\0.2 \0.2
40-year Bonds × 2 \0.4 trillion × 2 \0.4 trillion - \0.2 trillion × 2 \0.4 trillion - \0.2 trillion × 2 \0.4 trillion - \0.2 trillion × 3 \0.6 trillion +\0.2 trillion +\0.2 trillion
trillion trillion
\0.6 trillion × 4
\0.6 \0.6
30-year Bonds × 4 \2.4 trillion × 4 \2.4 trillion - \0.6 trillion × 4 \2.4 trillion - \0.6 trillion × 4 \2.4 trillion - \2.9 trillion +\0.5 trillion +\0.5 trillion
trillion trillion
\0.5 trillion × 1
\1.9 \1.9
10-year Bonds × 12 \22.8 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - -
trillion trillion
\1.9 trillion × 9
\1.9 \1.9
5-year Bonds × 12 \22.8 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \23.1 trillion +\0.3 trillion +\0.3 trillion
trillion trillion
\2.0 trillion × 3
\1.7 \1.7 trillion × 6
× 6 \1.7 trillion × 6 \1.7 trillion × 6
trillion
2-year Bonds \1.7 trillon × 12 \20.4 trillion \21.0 trillion +\0.6 trillion \21.0 trillion - \21.0 trillion - \1.8 trillion × 4 \21.4 trillion +\0.4 trillion +\1.0 trillion
\1.8
× 6 \1.8 trillion × 6 \1.8 trillion × 6 \2.0 trillion × 2
trillion
\1.4 \1.4 trillion × 6
× 6 \1.4 trillion × 6 \1.4 trillion × 6
\1.4 trillion
TBs (1-year) × 12 \16.8 trillion \17.4 trillion +\0.6 trillion \17.4 trillion - \17.4 trillion - \1.5 trillion × 3 \18.0 trillion +\0.6 trillion +\1.2 trillion
trillion \1.5
× 6 \1.5 trillion × 6 \1.5 trillion × 6 \1.7 trillion × 3
trillion
TBs (6-month) \3.3 trillion \3.3 trillion - \3.3 trillion - \3.3 trillion - \3.0 trillion ▲\0.3 trillion ▲\0.3 trillion
15-year
\0.6 \0.6
Floating-rate × 4 \2.4 trillion × 2 \1.2 trillion ▲\1.2 trillion \0.6 trillion × 2 \1.2 trillion - \0.6 trillion × 2 \1.2 trillion - \0.6 trillion × 1 \0.6 trillion ▲\0.6 trillion ▲\1.8 trillion
trillion trillion
Bonds
\0.5 trillion × 5
10-year Inflation- \0.5 \0.5
× 6 \3.0 trillion × 6 \3.0 trillion - \2.8 trillion ▲\0.2 trillion \0.5 trillion × 4 \2.0 trillion ▲\0.8 trillion \0.5 trillion × 3 \1.5 trillion ▲\0.5 trillion ▲\1.5 trillion
Indexed Bonds trillion trillion
\0.3 trillion × 1
(Note1) In addition to the above plan, 40-year, 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, 2-year, 15-year floating-rate and 10-year inflation-indexed bonds will be issued via Non-competitive price Auction Ⅱ, which will be held for JGB MarketSpecial Participants after the price(yield)-
competitive auction(the amount assignable to each Special Participant will not exceed 10% of the amount awarded to it in the Competitive price Auction and Non-Competitive price AuctionⅠ or the yield-Competitive Auction [10%→15% from Jan. 2009]).
(Note2) With regard to 6-month TBs, only the total amount is listed becauseTBs and FBs are expected to be issued as unified bills (Treasury Discount Bills) starting in Feb. 2009.
7
1. JGB Issuance Plan FY2009
○ In the FY2009 initial plan, JGB total issuance was set to be 132.3 trillion yen,
and the JGB market issuance (Calendar Base) to be 113.3 trillion yen (6.0
trillion yen, and 8.2 trillion yen increase from the initial issuance plan for
FY2008 respectively.) Both amounts will be increased for the first time in 4
years.
○ The average maturity of market issuance has been extended and is currently
7 years and 6 months.
8
1-1. Historical Changes in JGB Issuance Plan
(trillion yen)
200
FILP Bonds
Refunding Bonds
1 6 9 .5 1 67 .3 New Financial Resource Bonds
1 6 5 .0 1 6 5 .4 1 6 2 .9 1 6 1 .2
31.3 28.3 1 4 9 .2
28.2 27.2
150 27.2 25.6 1 4 3 .8 1 4 3 .6 1 4 1 .3
13 8 .0 14.1
18.6 18.6 1 32 .3
16.8 10.7
1 2 6 .3 1 2 6 .7 8.0
8.4 8.4
100
91.0
103.8 105.6
105.5 108.3
108.2 108.1 94.1 91.0
99.8 99.6 99.2
92.5 92.5
50
44.1
34.4 33.5 31.3 33.2 33.3
30.0 27.5 27.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.7
0
05 06 07 08 1st 2nd 09
initial revision actual initial revision actual initial revision actual initial revision initial revision
revision
9
1-2. Market Issuance Plan by JGB Types
(\ trillion)
130.2
6.3 0.3
Short-term
12.0 1.6 (Treasury Bills)
10.5
20
6.8 31.0 34.2 33.4
27.0 29.6 27.6 29.9 27.3
24.8 22.8 23.7
20.1 21.0
17.0
12.8
0
(FY)
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 08 09 09
(Initial) (Actual) (Initial) (Revised in April)
40-year \0.2 trillion × 2 \0.4 trillion \0.2 trillion × 3 \0.6 trillion + \0.2 trillion \0.2 trillion × 4 \0.8 trillion + \0.4 trillion
\0.6 trillion × 4
30-year \0.6 trillion × 4 \2.4 trillion \2.9 trillion + \0.5 trillion \0.5 trillion × 6 \3.0 trillion + \0.6 trillion
\0.5 trillion × 1
\0.8 trillion × 7
20-year \0.8 trillion × 12 \9.6 trillion \10.1 trillion + \0.5 trillion \0.9 trillion × 12 \10.8 trillion + \1.2 trillion
\0.9 trillion × 5
10-year \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion - \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion -
\1.9 trillion × 9
5-year \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion \23.1 trillion + \0.3 trillion \2.0 trillion × 12 \24.0 trillion + \1.2 trillion
\2.0 trillion × 3
\1.7 trillion × 6
2-year \1.7 trillion × 12 \20.4 trillion \1.8 trillion × 4 \21.4 trillion + \1.0 trillion \2.0 trillion × 12 \24.0 trillion + \3.6 trillion
\2.0 trillion × 2
\1.4 trillion × 6
Treasury Discount Bills
\1.4 trillion × 12 \16.8 trillion \1.5 trillion × 3 \18.0 trillion + \1.2 trillion \1.9 trillion × 12 \22.8 trillion + \6.0 trillion
(1-year)
\1.7 trillion × 3
15-year Floating-rate \0.6 trillion × 4 \2.4 trillion \0.6 trillion × 1 \0.6 trillion ▲ \1.8 trillion \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion ▲ \2.1 trillion
10-year Inflation-Indexed \0.5 trillion × 6 \3.0 trillion \0.5 trillion × 3 \1.5 trillion ▲ \1.5 trillion \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion ▲ \2.7 trillion
\0.1 trillion × 8
Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity \0.1 trillion × 12 \1.2 trillion \2.3 trillion + \1.1 trillion \0.15 trillion × 24 \3.6 trillion + \2.4 trillion
\0.15 trillion × 10
Total to the Market \105.1 trillion \106.3 trillion + \1.2 trillion \113.3 trillion + \8.2 trillion
Note 1: In addition to the above plan, 40-year, 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, 2-year, 15-year floating-rate and 10-year inflation-indexed bonds will be issued via Non-competitive price Auction Ⅱ, which will be held for JGB Market
Special Participants after the price(yield)-competitive auction(the amount assignable to each Market Special Participant will not exceed 15% of the amount awarded to it in the Competitive price Auction and Non-Competitive price
AuctionⅠ or the yeild-Competitive Auction [10%→15% from Jan. 2009]).
Note 2: With regard to 6-month Treasury Discount Bills, only the total amount is listed because TBs and FBs are expected to be issued as unified bills (Treasury Discount Bills) starting in Feb. 2009.
Note 3: The issuance scheduled in FY2009 of the 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds and 15-year Floating-rate Bonds could be called off, taking in the market conditions.
11
1-4. Revised Market Issuance Plan by JGB
Types (Revised in April 27)
<Market Issuance Plan by JGB Types>
15-year Floating-rate \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion -
10-year Inflation-Indexed \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion \0.3 trillion × 1 \0.3 trillion -
(Note 1) In addition to the above plan, 40-year, 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, 2-year, 15-year floating-rate and 10-year inflation-indexed bonds will be issued via Non-competitive price Auction Ⅱ, which will be held
for JGB Market Special Participants after the price(yield)-competitive auction(the amount assignable to each Market Special Participant will not exceed 15% of the amount awarded to it in the Competitive price
Auction and Non-Competitive price AuctionⅠ or the yield-Competitive Auction).
(Note 2) With regard to 6-month TBs, only the total amount is listed because TBs and FBs are issued as unified bills (Treasury Discount Bills) since Feb. 2009.
(Note 3) The issuance of the 15-year Floating-rate Bonds and the 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds could be called off, taking in the market conditions.
12
2. Recent Situation of Primary
Market and Secondary Market
○ Auction results
13
2-1. Bid-to-Cover Ratio
yen
4.50 0.180
Bid-to-Cover Ratio(Average, Left Scale)
Difference between the lowest accepted price and the weighted average price(Average, Right Scale)
4.00 0.160
3.50 0.140
3.00 0.120
2.50 0.100
2.00 0.080
1.50 0.060
1.00 0.040
0.50 0.020
0.00 0.000
Apr- M Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- M Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- M Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep-
07 ay- 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 ay- 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 ay- 09 09 09 09
07 08 09
(Note) The data is based on 2-year, 5-year, 10-year ,20-year and 30-year bonds. (Issuance month)
14
20
07
/
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
20 7/1
07
/
20 8/1
07 (%)
20 /9/
07 1
/
20 10/
07 1
/
20 11/
07 1
/1
(right scale)
20 2/1
08
Germany 10-year
/
20 1/1
08
/
20 2/
08 1
/
20 3/1
08
/
(left scale)
20 4/1
Japan 10-year
08
/
UK 10-year
(right Scale)
20 5/1
08
/
20 6/1
08
/
20 7/1
08
/
20 8/1
08
20 /9/
08 1
/
US 10-year
(right scale)
20 10/
08 1
/
2-2. Long-term Interest Rate
20 11
08 /1
/1
20 2/1
09
/
20 1/1
09
20 /2/
09 1
/
20 3/1
09
/
20 4/1
U. K.
U. S.
09
/
20 5/1
09
/
Oct.15
20 6/1
09
/
20 7/1
09
/
20 8/1
Germany 3.290%
3.580%
3.460%
Japan 1.315%
09
20 /9/
09 1
/1
0/
1
(%)
As of
Oct.15
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
15
3. Market Liquidity of JGB
○ The shape of the JGB yield curve was distorted and
remained unadjusted for a certain period of time around
the 7 year zone which is the zone of the “cheapest to
deliver” issue for futures transactions.
16
3-1. Distortion in the Yield Curve
(%) 2009.10.15
2.5 2008.09.16
2008.06.16
2008.03.25
2007.08.09
2007.07.10
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
(Maturity)
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
H 1 . 3 .4
6
(%)
H 1 . 5.4
6
H 1 . 7.4
H 1 6. 9.
6.1 4
H 1 1.4
7
H 1 . 1 .4
7
H 1 . 3 .4
7
H 1 . 5.4
7
H 1 . 7.4
H 1 7. 9.
7 .1 4
H 1 1 .4
8
H 1 . 1 .4
8
H 1 . 3.4
8
H 1 . 5.4
8
H 1 . 7.4
Compound interest rate of 10-year JGB
H 1 8. 9.
8 .1 4
H 1 1 .4
9
H 1 . 1 .4
9
H 1 . 3.4
9
H 1 . 5.4
9
H 1 . 7.4
H 1 9. 9.
9 .1 4
H 2 1 .4
0
Break-even Inflation rate
H 2 . 1 .4
0
H 2 . 3.4
0
H 2 . 5 .4
Compound interest rate of
0
Inflation-Indexed Bonds, and the BEI rate
H 2 . 7.4
H 2 0. 9.
0.1 4
H 2 1 .4
1
H 2 . 1 .4
1
3-2.Interest Rate of 10-year Bonds and 10-year
H 2 . 3.4
1
H 2 . 5 .4
1
H 2 . 7.4
1. 9
.4
1.132%
2.258%
▲1.126%
As of
Oct.15
18
20
07
/
84.0
85.0
86.0
87.0
88.0
89.0
90.0
91.0
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
2 0 4/ 1
07
/5
20 /1
07
/
2 0 6/ 1
07
/7
20 /1
07
/8
20 /1
07
2 0 /9/
07 1
/1
20 0/
07 1
/
2 0 11 /
07 1
15Y48th(α▲20bp)
15Y47th(α▲45bp)
15Y46th(α▲40bp)
15Y45th(α▲45bp)
15Y44th(α▲45bp)
/1
2
15Y32th(α▲101bp)
2 0 /1
08
/1
20 /1
08
/
2 0 2/ 1
08
/3
20 /1
08
/
2 0 4/ 1
08
/5
20 /1
08
/
2 0 6/ 1
08
/7
20 /1
08
/8
20 /1
08
/
2 0 9/
08 1
/1
20 0/
08 1
/
2 0 11 /
08 1
/1
2
2 0 /1
09
/1
20 /1
09
/
2 0 2/ 1
09
/3
20 /1
09
/
2 0 4/ 1
09
/5
20 /1
09
/
2 0 6/ 1
09
/7
20 /1
09
/8
20 /1
09
3-3. Market Price of 15-year Floating-rate Bonds
2 0 /9/
09 1
/1
0/
1
32th
48th
Oct.15
Oct.15
As of
95.10yen
103.35yen
Oct.15
19
3-4. Market Size of 10-year JGBi
Total issue size of 10-year JGBi (Calendar Base)
FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007
\0.1 tri. \0.8 tri. \2.0 tri. \2.5 tri. \3.0 tri.
\3.0 tri. \2.8 tri. \2.0 tri. \1.5 tri. \0.3 tri.
Mar.2004 Mar.2005 Mar.2006 Mar.2007 Mar.2008 Dec. 2008 Mar. 2009 Jun. 2009
\0.1 tri. \0.9 tri. \3.0 tri. \5.5 tri. \8.4 tri. \9.5 tri. \8.5 tri. \7.9 tri.
20
3-5. Market Size of 15-year CMT
Total issue size of 15-year CMT (Calendar Base)
FY2005 FY2005 FY2006 FY2006 FY2007 FY2007
(Initial) (revised in Sep.) (Initial) (revised in Dec.) (Initial) (revised in Sep.)
\9.0 tri. \8.8 tri. \7.8 tri. \5.5 tri. \4.0 tri. \3.4 tri.
Mar.2004 Mar.2005 Mar.2006 Mar.2007 Mar.2008 Dec. 2008 Mar. 2009 Jun. 2009
\17.9 tri. \25.3 tri. \34.2 tri. \39.6 tri. \42.7 tri. \42.5 tri. \41.9 tri. \41.5 tri.
21
4. Enhancing Market Liquidity
Buy-back
・The total Buy-back amount in FY2009:
4 trillion yen
・Focus on 15-year floating-rate bonds and
10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds
Regular Redemption
Debt
発行当局
Management Market
Office Regular Issuance
22
4-1. Auction for Enhanced-liquidity
MOF started the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity in April 2006
Target Issues
JGBs with approx. 11-16 years remaining to maturity (Apr. 2006-)
Expanded to JGBs with remaining maturities from 6 to 29-year (Apr. 2008-)
In FY2009, target issue will be reviewed on a quarterly basis.
For the first quarter of FY2009 issues near the current issues (issues within 6-months
after issuance are excluded) will be added to the target issues. (Apr. 2009-)
Further expanded the target zones to JGBs with remaining maturities from 5 ‐29 year. (Jul. 2009-)
23
4-2. Target Zones of the Auction for
Enhanced-liquidity (for the Second quarter of FY2009)
①Remaining maturity: approx. 5-~15-year
6,000 (billion yen)
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
0
1
2
3
29
30
5
6
7
8
9
31
32
0
1
2
3
33
4
5
34
35
7
8
36
37
0
1
2
38
39
3
4
5
6
40
7
8
9
0
1
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
30
30
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
②Remaining maturity: approx. 16-~29-year
2,500
(billion yen)
Excluded issues
1,000
500
0
0
1
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JX
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
JL
(Note) JL shows 20-year JGBs. JX shows 30-year JGBs. Outstanding amount is at end of Mar.2009 24
4-3. Buy-back Program
Expanded to include all fixed-rate JGBs starting from Jan. 2006.
Increased Buy-back amount from 1.2 trillion yen/year to 1.8 trillion yen/year from Apr. 2006.
Expanded to include all 15-year Floating-rate bonds and 10-year Inflation-Indexed bonds from
Dec. 2006.
Increased Buy-back amount from 1.8 trillion yen/year to about 3.55 trillion yen/year, focusing on
15-year Floating-rate bonds and 10-year Inflation-Indexed bonds in FY2008.
Increased Buy-back amount to about 4.0 trillion yen/year, focusing on 15-year Floating-rate
bonds and 10-year Inflation-Indexed bonds in FY2009. Actual amount will be decided on a
quarterly basis taking in the market conditions.
(trillion yen/year)
4.0
2006 Jan. 2006 Apr. 2006 Dec. 2007 Apr. 2008 Apr. 2008 Oct. 2008 Dec. 2009 Apr.
25
4-4. JGB Buy-back Program FY2008
(Initial→August revision)
(billion yen)
Auction FY2008(initial, first half) FY2008(revised in August)
2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS 2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS
Month
30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon) 30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon)
Jun.08 Approx. 140 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 20 Approx. 140 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 20
26
4-5. JGB Buy-back Program FY2008
(Revised in September and October)
(billion yen)
Auction FY2008(revised in September) FY2008(revised in October)
2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS 2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS
Month 30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon) 30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon)
Jun.08 Approx. 140 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 20 Approx. 140 Approx. 150 ― Approx. 20
Dec.08 Approx. 120 Approx. 200 Approx. 80 ― ― Approx. 200 Approx. 190 ―
Total Approx. 800 Approx. 1,400 Approx. 800 Approx. 40 Approx. 560 Approx. 1,500 Approx. 1,250 Approx. 40
27
4-6. JGB Buy-back Program
FY2008 (Revised in December) and FY2009
(billion yen)
Auction FY2008(revised in December) FY2009
Month 2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS 2,5,10,20 and 15-year 10-year STRIPS
30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon) 30 year Floating-rate Inflation-Indexed (Coupon)
28
5.Appendix
○ GDP
○ Industrial Production
○ Price
○ Employment
○ Japanese Government Bond
29
5-1. Real GDP and Level of Contribution
30
5-2. Japanese economic outlook
(% change from the previous year)
(July 2009)
Nominal GDP -3.6 -3.1 -
31
5-3. Industrial Production
(Seasonally adjusted, CY2005=100)
115
105
95
85
75
65
0
55
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2006 2007 2008 2009
32
5-4. Exports Volume Index
(2005=100)
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
(reference)
3.6 3.6 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7
US 17.4% 16.5% 17.9% 16.0% 15.6% 16.0% 16.7% 15.9% 15.7%
▲11.4% ▲14.7% ▲29.7% ▲54.2% ▲45.9 ▲49.1 ▲42.1 ▲44.0 ▲39.2
China(including 4.6 4.8 3.6 2.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
21.8% 21.8% 21.1% 21.9% 25.2% 26.2% 25.9% 25.2% 25.5%
Hong Kong) 6.6% 6.6% ▲22.6% ▲41.1% ▲27.2 ▲31.3 ▲24.0 ▲27.2 ▲28.5
34
5-6. Price Trends
【Corporate Goods Price Index and Consumer Price Indexes】
(%) Change from the previous year
9.0
CGPI(Corporate Goods Price Index)
CPI (excluding fresh food)
7.0
CPI (excluding fresh food and energy prices)
5.0
3.0 -0.9%
1.0
-1.0
-3.0
-2.4%
-5.0
-8.5%
-7.0
-9.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
(Source)Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Bank of Japan
35
5-7. Trends in Stock Prices since 1985
(JPY)
Nikkei 225
40,000
38,000
36,000
34,000
32,000
30,000
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
(USD)
Dow Jones
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
36
5-8. Employment
(%) Seasonally adjusted
5.9 1.10
5.8
5.7 1.05
5.6 5.5% 1.00
5.5
5.4 0.95
5.3
5.2 0.90
5.1
0.85
5.0
4.9 0.80
4.8 Unemployment rate (left scale)
4.7 0.75
4.6
4.5 0.70
4.4
0.65
4.3
4.2 0.60
4.1
4.0 0.55
Ratio of effective job openings to applicants (right scale)
3.9
0.50
3.8
3.7 0.45
3.6 0.42
3.5 0.40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
(Source) Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
37
5-9. JGB Issuance Plan for FY2009
<Breakdown by Fiscal Needs> (Unit: billion yen) <Breakdown by Financing Methods> (Unit: billion yen)
FY2008 FY2008 FY2008 FY2008
(Initial) (2nd supplementary budget) FY2009 (Initial) (Initial) (2nd supplementary budget) FY2009 (Initial)
(a) (b) (b)-(a) (c) (c)-(a) (c)-(b) (a) (b) (b)-(a) (c) (c)-(a) (c)-(b)
Non-price Competitive
Refunding Bonds 92,542.0 94,093.7 1,551.7 90,991.4 ▲ 1,550.6 ▲ 3,102.3
Auction Ⅱ 2,514.0 4,282.7 1,768.7 3,870.0 1,356.0 ▲ 412.7
Adjustment by
FILP Bonds 8,400.0 10,700.0 2,300.0 8,000.0 ▲ 400.0 ▲ 2,700.0 Depleting Front-loaded 1,053.7 13,572.3 12,518.7 209.3 ▲844.3 ▲ 13,363.0
Issuance
Subtotal Financed in
Total 126,290.0 137,961.7 11,671.7 132,285.4 5,995.4 ▲ 5,676.3
the Market 108,667.7 124,155.0 15,487.4 117,379.3 8,711.7 ▲ 6,775.7
・The total Buy-back amount from the market will be increased to 4 trillion yen, focusing on the Nonmarketable JGBs for
Retail-Investors 6,200.0 2,384.3 ▲ 3,815.7 2,400.0 ▲ 3,800.0 15.7
10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds and 15-year Floating-rate Bonds (actual amount will be
decided on a quarterly basis taking in the market conditions).
In addition coupon STRIPS Buy-back will be conducted, responding to the market needs. OTC Sales for
Households 1,800.0 1,800.0 ― 1,800.0 ― ―
・ The maximum amount of Interest rate swap transactions in FY2009 is 1.8 trillion yen on notional
principles, taking in the market conditions. Subtotal for
Households 8,000.0 4,184.3 ▲ 3,815.7 4,200.0 ▲ 3,800.0 15.7
・ The maximum amount of front-loaded issuance of Refunding bonds in FY2009 is 12 trillion yen.
Public Sector (Bank
(Note1) Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding. of Japan) 9,622.3 9,622.3 ― 10,706.0 1,083.7 1,083.7
(Note2) JGB Market Issuance (Calender Base) refers to JGBs issued by scheduled auctions from April to next
March.
Total 126,290.0 137,961.7 11,671.7 132,285.4 5,995.4 ▲ 5,676.3
(Note3) Non-price Competitive Auction Ⅱis estimated at 4.5% of the JGB Market Issuance excluding TBs and bonds
issued in Auction for Enhanced-liquidity.
38
5-10. Revised JGB Issuance Plan for FY2009
(Revised on April 27)
<Breakdown by Fiscal Needs> (Unit: billion yen) <Breakdown by Financing Methods> (Unit: billion yen)
FY2009 FY2009 FY2009 FY2009
(Initial) (Supplementary budget) (Initial) (Supplementary budget)
Adjustment by
Special Deficit-
25,715.0 29,202.0 3,487.0 Depleting Front-loaded 209.3 228.3 19.0
financing Bonds Issuance
Subtotal Financed in
Refunding Bonds 90,991.4 90,991.4 - 117,379.3 134,298.3 16,919.0
the Market
Nonmarketable JGBs for
FILP Bonds 8,000.0 14,100.0 6,100.0
Retail-Investors 2,400.0 2,400.0 -
Subtotal for
4,200.0 4,200.0 -
Households
(Note1) Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding.
Public Sector (Bank
10,706.0 10,706.0 -
(Note2) JGB Market Issuance (Calendar Base) refers to JGBs issued by scheduled auctions from of Japan)
April to next March.
39
5-11. 10-year JGB Yield
(%)
2.000
1.950
08/6/16
1.900
1.880%
1.850
1.800
1.750
1.700
2009/6/11
1.650
1.550%
1.600
1.550
1.500
1.450
1.400
1.350
08/9/16(1.465%)
1.300 Lehman Brothers applied to
08/3/17(1.280%) file under Chapter11 (9/15)
1.250
JP Morgan announced to
1.200 acquire Bear Stearns 10/15
1.150
2008/12/30 1.315% As of
1.165%
1.100 Oct.15
Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct-
07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09
40