Professional Documents
Culture Documents
I.1. Introduction
-7-
6.4
6.0
4.8
8
6
I/2012
4.8
4.3
5.5
6.2 6.4
4.2
3.7
4.7
3.5 3.3 3.2
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-6.5
deficit
-10
Forecast
-8.5
-9.8
-8.9
-12
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
(1) Surplus countries: BE, DK, DE, LU, NL, AT, FI and SE.
Deficit countries: BG, CZ, EE, IE, EL, ES, FR, IT, CY, LV, LT,
HU,
MT,
PL,
PT,
RO,
SI,
SK
and
UK.
Surplus/deficit countries grouped on the basis of average current
account positions between 2000 and 2010.
Graph I.3:
120
Graph I.2:
Private credit growth and current
account positions, % (2000 - 2007) (1)
30
ES
IE
15
EL
BE
FR
IT
-10
NL
-5
0
Current account (average '00-'07)
LU
IE
60
40
IT
EL
BE
FI
NL
20
0
PT
-20
20
40
60
House prices (cumulative % change)
80
AT
DE
FR
80
FI
10
ES
100
20
PT
-15
R = 0.3657
25
LU
10
-8-
tackle
-9-
I/2012
indicators, economic circumstances and countryspecific situations are taken into account.
The alert mechanism is an initial filter where the
outcome is to identify countries and issues for
which more in-depth analysis is required. The
conclusions of the AMR are discussed in the
Council and the Eurogroup to enable the
Commission to obtain appropriate feedback from
Member States. The Commission then decides on
the final list of countries for which it will prepare
country-specific in-depth reviews.
- 10 -
Council
decision
on
a
Commission
recommendation is deemed to be adopted by the
Council unless it decides, by qualified majority, to
reject the recommendation within ten days of the
Commission adopting it. The aim of this voting
rule is to increase the automaticity of the decisionmaking process.
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I/2012
- 12 -
At present,
indicators: (5)
the
scoreboard
includes
ten
- 13 -
I/2012
Table I.1:
External imbalances and competitiveness
Net
3 year average
% Change
% Change
of Current International
(3 years)
(5 years)
Investment
Account
of Real
in Export
Year 2010
Position
Balance
Effective
Market
as % of GDP as % of GDP Exchange Rate
Shares
with HIPC
deflators
Thresholds
BE
DE
EE
IE
EL
ES
FR
IT
CY
LU
MT
NL
AT
PT
SI
SK
FI
- 4/6%
- 35%
5% & 11%
- 6%
9% & 12%
-0.6
5.9
-0.8
-2.7
-12.1
-6.5
-1.7
-2.8
-12.1
6.4
-5.4
5.0
3.5
-11.2
-3.0
-4.1
2.1
77.8
38.4
-72.8
-90.9
-92.5
-89.5
-10.0
-23.9
-43.4
96.5
9.2
28.0
-9.8
-107.5
-35.7
-66.2
9.9
1.3
-2.9
5.9
-5.0
3.9
0.6
-1.4
-1.0
0.8
1.9
-0.6
-1.0
-1.3
-2.4
2.3
12.1
0.3
-15.4
-8.3
-0.9
-12.8
-20.0
-11.6
-19.4
-19.0
-19.4
3.2
6.9
-8.1
-14.8
-8.6
-5.9
32.6
-18.7
8.5
6.6
9.3
-2.3
12.8
3.3
7.2
7.8
7.2
17.3
7.7
7.4
8.9
5.1
15.7
10.1
12.3
Internal imbalances
Private Sector Private Sector Public Sector 3 year average
% y-o-y
Debt
Credit Flow
Debt
of
change in
as % of GDP as % of GDP as % of GDP Unemployment
deflated
House Prices
+ 6%
15%
160%
60%
10%
0.4
-1.0
-2.1
-10.5
-6.8
-4.3
3.6
-1.5
-6.6
3.0
-1.6
-2.9
-1.5
0.1
0.7
-4.9
6.6
13.1
3.1
-8.6
-4.5
-0.7
1.4
2.4
3.6
30.5
-41.8
6.9
-0.7
6.4
3.3
1.8
3.3
6.8
233
128
176
341
124
227
160
126
289
254
212
223
166
249
129
69
178
96
83
7
93
145
61
82
118
62
19
69
63
72
93
39
41
48
7.7
7.5
12.0
10.6
9.9
16.5
9.0
7.6
5.1
4.9
6.6
3.8
4.3
10.4
5.9
12.0
7.7
(1) The shaded cells in the table mark values that fall outside the scoreboard thresholds.
350
Non-financial corporations
Households' debt
Government debt
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
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200
20
150
15
100
10
50
-50
PT
IT
BE
FI
LU
FR
ES
NL
IE
-5
I.7. Conclusions
The MIP represents a major improvement in the
economic governance framework in the EU. By
covering the issue of macroeconomic imbalances,
it will fill a gap in the surveillance of
macroeconomic policies. While it is a promising
tool for improving the coordination of economic
policies in the EU and the euro area, only the
effectiveness of implementation can ultimately
determine its true value.
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
- 15 -