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Abstract
This article shows the evolution of the main macroeconomic indicators of results, Gross Domestic
Product correlated with variation of final consumption in our country in the years 1990 to 2011. The
values of the two macroeconomic indicators have been deflated using the consumer price index with
fixed basis, considering the first year of the series, 1990, as a reference. The evolution of the Gross
Domestic Product is influenced to a large extent by changes of final consumption. To achieve the
correlation between the two macroeconomic indicators, article proposes using the linear regression
model, model is the basis of many micro and macroeconomic analysis. In this regression model is
considered the gross domestic product as outcome variables and the final consumption as the variable
factorial.
1. Introduction
The linear regression model involves identifying the
variables for defining the model and establishing the
residual variable. For the analysis of time series we are
using a time function which, in essence, it is all of the
regression line with a time variable (t). The purpose of
the use of the regression model is that to obtain the
parameters corresponding to a set of variables made by
analyzing the dependence of the variables for the data
series that are recorded at the level of the statistical
units of population for a time period or a moment, and
for highlighting the dependence between variables in a
certain period of time [1].
Regression
in
(1)
Key words:
Gross Domestic
Product, final
consumption, simple
regression, model,
correlation, variable
JEL Codes:
C22, O11
Year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Gross Domestic
Product
(comparable
prices) million lei
85.79
81.57
71.88
67.08
70.38
77.12
83.82
76.47
71.03
71.13
71.92
77.70
82.55
93.00
104.15
111.60
124.92
143.82
165.00
152.15
149.86
150.59
Final Consumption
(comparable prices)
million lei
67.95
61.89
55.35
51.01
54.37
62.72
69.28
66.09
64.13
63.13
61.96
66.19
69.03
79.52
88.86
96.96
106.87
119.25
134.93
122.74
120.13
118.07
(3)
169
Bibliography:
1. Anghelache, C., G.R. Pagliacci, M., Prodan, L.,
(2013). "Model for macroeconomic- analyze based on
the regression function", Romanian Statistical Review,
no. 1/2013, ISSN 1018-046X.
2. Anghelache, C., Prodan, L., and staff, (2012).
"Statistical-econometric models of economic analysis the use of models in the study of the Romanian
economy, Romanian Statistical Review ( November
2012 Supplement).
3. Andrei, T., Stancu, S., Iacob, A.I., Tusa, E., (2008).
Introduction to econometrics using EViews, Editura
Economic, Bucharest.
4. Bardsen, G., Nymagen, R., Jansen, E. (2005).The
Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling, Oxford
University Press.
5. *** Statistical Yearbook of Romania, Editions 19912012, NIS, Bucharest
3. Conclusions
Based on all the above analysis, we can say that Gross
Domestic Product is significantly influenced by the final
consumption.
This is one corresponding economic reality of Romania
in the last twenty years since the Romanian economy
was based almost exclusively on stimulating
consumption and less on promoting a correct
investment policy.
Notes:
[1] Anghelache, C., G.R. Pagliacci, M., Prodan, L.
(2013). "Model for macroeconomic-Analyze based on
the regression function", Romanian Statistical Review,
no. 1, pp. 5-30.
172