Ag Hedge Daily Newsletter

1/21/2016
- Good morning from Chicago Get expert perspective on today's Ag markets from some of the most respected names in the industry. Zaner experts have been quoted in Dow Jones Newswires, AgWeb.com, Top
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IMPORTANT NOTICES

OPENING CALLS

January 21:
January 22:
January 25:
January 26:
January 27:
January 28:

Corn:

up 1-2

Wheat:

up 1-2

Beans:

up 1-3

Ted live at the CME and RFD TV at 9:45am

Export Sales at 7:30am Cattle on Feed & Cold Storage at 2:00pm
Export Inspections at 10:00am
FOMC Meeting
FOMC Meeting
Export Sales at 7:30am Last Trade Day Jan Feeders

Cattle:
Hogs:
US $:

up .500

Crude:

down .25

GRAINS

52 Week
High

464-0 on
07/14/15

52 Week
High

629-4 on
06/30/15

52 Week
High

1044-2 on
07/14/15

52 Week
Low

348-4 on
01/07/16

52 Week
Low

456-0 on
01/04/16

52 Week
Low

847-0 on
11/23/15

20 Day MA 360-0

20 Day MA 470-4

20 Day MA 871-0

50 Day MA 367-3

50 Day MA 481-0

50 Day MA 873-3

100 Day MA 379-2

100 Day MA 493-7

100 Day
MA

881-2

Corn: ---Night Session Close: March up 16 at 3704 Dec up 12 at 3916

Opening the night session at 3686, March traded to a session low of 3684. Support from the 50 day moving average stands at 3674 with downtrend support at 3670 while a gap
remains from 3634 to 3640. Further moving average support comes from the 10 and 20 day at 3604 and 3600; respectively. Trading to a session high of 3704, the 100 day moving
average stands at 3792, in addition to the 380 region as well as the December high of 3820.
Soybeans: ---Night Session Close: March up 22 at 8762 Nov up 06 at 8830
Opening the night session at 8744, March traded to a session low of 8722. Moving average support from the 50 day stands at 8732 and the 10 day at 8740. Down trend support
stands at 8724 and 8680. Posting a session high at 8784, resistance from the 100 day moving average stands at 8812 and followed by the recent high of 8880.

Wheat: ---Night Session Close: March up 20 at 4734 Sept up 10 at 4906

Opening the night at 4730, March set a session low at 4704. Support from the 20 day moving average stands at 4704 while yesterdays low may offer further support at 4672.
Additional support is possible in the 465-467 region. Posting a session high at 4736, down trend resistance may be found around 476 in addition to the 480 region and the 50 day
moving average at 4810.

News:
--- 2016 EU corn production is estimated at 64.6MMT vers the previous 64.9MMT and wheat production is estimated at 143.1MMT for 16/17
--- Brazil and Russias currencies have fallen back to recent all-time lows.
--- Driven by strong soymeal demand, Chinas 15/16 soybean imports are seen at a record 85MMT and recent crack downs on DDG imports may spur more demand for soymeal.
--- Argentina may begin soybean imports from Paraguay in an attempt in boost domestic crush.
--- Weather uncertainty concerning Brazils second crop may provide further short covering as questions looms about the timeliness the crop may be planted.

--- Brian

For more information, questions, or comments feel free to contact us or follow our team on Twitter:
Ted Seifried -- (312) 277-0113 -- tseifried@zaner.com -- @TheTedSpread
Tim Hackbarth -- (312) 277-0110 -- thackbarth@zaner.com -- @AgHedgingone
Brian Grossman -- (312) 277-0119 -- bgrossman@zaner.com -- @AgHedgeGrossman

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MEATS

52 Week
High

156.300 on
06/10/15

52 Week
High

214.150 on
06/11/15

52 Week
High

72.975 on
05/12/15

52 Week
Low

121.975 on
12/17/15

52 Week
Low

143.200 on
12/17/15

52 Week
Low

53.975 on
11/17/15

20 Day MA 133.269

20 Day MA 161.538

20 Day MA 60.057

50 Day MA 131.413

50 Day MA 160.249

50 Day MA 58.693

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

136.111

170.673

62.979

Quite an eventful day of trade for the cattle as we filled the downside gaps from December only to bounce and close off of lows. The feeder cattle contracts closed $2.40 off lows while
the fats managed to close a dollar off of their lows. Will be interested to see how technicians view todays trade.
Cash trade is very slow in developing this week as evidence from very scant bids/offers. Have seen some 202 dressed bids in NE but no live bids/offers to this point. Cant imagine asking
prices dont at least start at $135/$136. Perhaps a little gamesmanship or maybe packers have enough to fulfill nearby needs.

Feeder Index down .49 to 159.40.

Prior to December Cattle on Feed report, feeders broke 12%. Current break is at 7% with next COF report Friday.
Cutouts are down slightly from week ago but holding on pretty well. Choice was up 76 cents at midday on Wednesday to $230.69. Just yesterday, I saw an analyst predicting a complete
collapse from cutouts this week. He has two days left is all Im saying.
This current downtrend for global stock markets is hanging a cloud of uncertainty as to where demand may fall to. Demand concerns are already seen as limiting factor to upside and the
plummeting markets only confirm trades concerns in near term.
April cattle futures trading at $128.00 find the board price at a $6.00 discount to cash at a time we normally see futures at slight premium.
Technically, the markets short term trend remains negative.
**Of note- corn prices are hanging tough and may become more influence to livestock trade sooner than later.
Tim

LINKS

Cash Grain Bids

US Weather

South American Weather

In this newsletter we do not email specific trade recommendations. As each client's situation is unique, we craft strategies to fit our individual client's needs. Please feel free to call us at
312-277-0113 for a personalized recommendation.