LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

LATINFOCUS
CONSENSUSFORECAST
Latin America December 2015
SUMMARY 3
CALENDAR 19
ARGENTINA 21
BRAZIL 35
CHILE 52
COLOMBIA 67
MEXICO 82
PERU 98
VENEZUELA 113
OTHER COUNTRIES
129
BOLIVIA 129
ECUADOR 132
PARAGUAY 138
URUGUAY 141
NOTES 147
PUBLICATION DATE 7 December 2015

FORECASTS COLLECTED 1 December - 7 December 2015
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 7 December 2015
NEXT EDITION 19 January 2016
Contributors
ARNE POHLMAN
Chief Economist
CARL KELLY
Economist
ARMANDO CICCARELLI TERESA KERSTING

Head of Research
Economist
RICARDO ACEVES
Senior Economist
DIRINA MANELLARI
Economist
RICARD TORN
Senior Economist
ANGELA BOUZANIS
Economist
OLGA COSCODAN
Economist
ROBERT HILL
Economist
ERIC DENIS
Economist
JEAN-PHILIPPE
POURCELOT
Economist
MIRIAM DOWD
Editor
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

2012
2.6
2.2
-0.8
1.7
7.7
3.1
3.2
5.5
4.0
2.1
0.8
1.9
-1.2
3.3
5.6
4.8
5.1
4.0
5.6
6.0
World
United States
Euro area
Japan
China
Latin America
Centam & Caribbean
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Real GDP, annual variation in %

2013
2014
2015
2.6
2.8
2.8
1.5
2.4
2.5
-0.2
0.9
1.5
1.6
-0.1
0.6
7.7
7.3
6.9
3.0
1.2
-0.2
3.1
3.3
3.0
4.2
1.9
2.1
1.4
2.3
2.4
2.9
-0.1
-2.7
2.9
0.5
1.3
3.0
0.1
-3.2
14.2
4.4
3.3
5.1
3.5
2.0
1.3
-3.7
-8.0
5.2
3.8
2.5
6.8
5.5
4.4
4.9
4.6
2.9
4.6
3.7
0.1
5.8
2.4
2.7
Consumer Prices, annual variation in %

2012
2013
2014
2015
3.4
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.1
1.5
1.6
0.2
2.5
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.4
2.8
0.7
2.6
2.6
2.0
1.5
6.2
8.5
10.5
18.7
4.2
3.6
3.3
1.8
1.5
3.0
4.6
4.5
3.6
4.0
4.1
2.6
8.3
12.2
15.7
32.1
10.8
11.0
23.9
16.6
5.8
5.9
6.4
10.2
4.0
3.7
4.2
3.6
7.5
8.5
8.3
9.1
20.1
56.2
68.5
179.6
2.8
2.5
3.6
4.8
4.5
6.5
5.2
4.6
2.4
1.9
3.7
5.9
4.2
2.7
3.7
3.5
2.7
2.9
3.2
3.8
2016
3.1
2.5
1.7
1.1
6.5
0.6
3.2
2.5
2.8
-1.6
0.5
-1.8
4.0
2.0
-4.5
2.5
3.8
2.8
-0.5
3.4
Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in %
2016
3.1
1.8
1.1
0.7
1.8
17.5
2.8
3.5
3.4
31.6
27.6
6.3
4.3
8.7
164.8
3.7
5.1
4.0
3.3
3.2
Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

20
8
2013
2014
2015
2016
2013
2014
2015
2016
15
4
10
2
5
-2
World
United States
Euro area
2012
-3.7
-6.7
-3.7
-8.7
-1.6
-2.7
-10.1
0.6
-2.6
-2.5
-1.8
-2.3
-1.8
-2.7
-4.9
-0.4
1.8
-1.9
-0.9
2.3
World
United States
Euro area
Japan
China
Latin America
Centam & Caribbean
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Japan
China
Latin America
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP

2013
2014
-3.0
-2.8
-4.1
-2.8
-3.0
-2.6
-9.0
-8.3
-1.9
-1.8
-2.9
-4.9
-11.0
-10.8
-0.6
-1.6
-2.3
-3.2
-2.7
-5.7
-1.7
-2.5
-3.1
-6.2
-2.0
-2.3
-2.3
-3.5
-1.9
-7.6
-1.5
-2.3
0.7
-3.4
-2.2
-2.6
-4.6
-5.4
0.9
-0.1
2015
-3.3
-2.6
-2.1
-6.8
-2.5
-6.7
-10.8
-3.0
-3.5
-8.5
-5.3
-9.5
-2.2
-3.4
-9.4
-3.4
-4.6
-3.2
-5.9
-2.2
-3
-6
-9
-2
2014
2015
United States
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Euro area
2013
Japan
China
Japan
China
Latin America
Current Account, % of GDP

2013
2014
2015
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.3
-2.2
-2.5
2.0
2.3
2.7
0.8
0.5
2.9
1.5
2.1
2.9
-2.5
-2.9
-3.0
-2.8
-2.4
-1.3
-3.7
-1.2
-0.6
-2.4
-1.9
-2.6
-2.2
-3.1
-3.2
-0.7
-1.1
-1.7
-3.1
-4.4
-3.8
1.7
-0.3
-1.2
-4.9
-4.5
-3.9
1.4
2.5
-2.7
-2.9
-3.9
-4.8
3.4
0.1
-3.8
-3.3
-5.2
-6.1
-1.0
-0.6
-3.0
-4.2
-4.0
-3.9
2012
0.0
-2.8
1.3
1.0
2.5
-2.1
-3.5
-3.6
-1.3
-1.9
-0.2
-3.1
-2.0
-5.0
2.9
-2.2
7.3
-3.1
-0.2
-2.7
2016
-4
World
Euro area
2016
0.0
-2.6
2.6
2.8
2.9
-2.6
-1.5
-1.2
-2.7
-2.4
-1.5
-2.9
-1.0
-3.6
-1.3
-4.2
-4.1
-5.2
-2.5
-3.5
Current Account Balance, % of GDP

4
2013
United States
2016
-2.9
-2.5
-1.8
-6.4
-2.6
-5.8
-10.6
-2.7
-3.1
-7.0
-4.2
-7.8
-1.9
-3.2
-7.6
-3.6
-4.7
-3.7
-4.7
-2.6
-12
World
Latin America
United States
Euro area
2014
Japan
2015
2016
China
Latin America
|2
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
Summary
Regional outlook deteriorates

REAL SECTOR | Grey clouds amass over region, political
developments take center stage
The economy of Latin America faced significant headwinds in
2015. Heading into 2016, fundamental challenges on the economic
as well as political fronts loom on the horizon. This year, a slump
in commodities prices, a deceleration in China and global financial
volatility weighed strongly on the regions economic performance.
More complete data compiled by FocusEconomics showed that
the regions economic deterioration had already begun in Q2.
According to a FocusEconomics estimate, GDP swung from a
0.4% year-on-year increase in Q1 to a 0.1% decrease in Q2. This
marked the first GDP contraction in the region since Q3 2009,
when Latin America was emerging from recession. Moreover,
an initial FocusEconomics GDP estimate for Q3 indicate that
economic conditions in Latin America worsened. The estimate
showed that GDP fell 0.6% annually in Q3, which was mainly the
result of grim third-quarter GDP data in Brazil, suggesting that the
recession in the regions largest economy has not yet bottomed.
Latin America
Economic Growth
Change in GDP forecasts
2015
-2
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
Note: GDP, real annual variation in %,
Q1 2012 - Q4 2016.
Jul
Oct
Jan
2016
Apr
Jul
Oct
Note: GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.
-2
Elections and significant political events took center stage at the

end of the year. Argentines went to the polls on 22 November for
the presidential run-off election. The results showed that Mauricio
Macri, the candidate of the Lets Change coalition (Cambiemos),
overcame Daniel Scioli of the ruling Front for Victory (Frente para la
Victoria) ending 12 years of political establishment by the Peronist
political movement. Macris victory reflects widespread fatigue with
the leadership of Cristina Fernndez de Kirchner, whose political
mismanagement has brought the country to the brink of economic
crisis. Macris platform is of unity, no centralization of power in
the presidential position and the repositioning of Argentina in the
international arena. However, the new president faces the tough
challenge of transforming the economic wasteland he inherited
from its predecessors.
In Brazil, more difficulties arose for President Dilma Rousseff
and her government when the Speaker of the Lower House of
Congress, Eduardo Cunha, announced on 2 December that he
would launch impeachment proceedings against her. Cunha
will initiate the proceedings after accepting one of the many
impeachment requests made by the opposition and protest
groups on the grounds of fiscal mismanagement. The Brazilian
Constitution lists among the crimes Rousseff could be held
responsible for, taking actions against administrative responsibility
and the budget law, which could prompt her resignation. The
whole process is expected to take between one to two months,
|3
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
assuming that the Lower Hose continues to work during the

summer recess of January to February. That said, there is no clear
time limit for the Senate. In the only other impeachment episode
in Brazils history in 1992 involving President Collor de Mello, the
process took one month in the Lower House and three months
in the Senate. Regardless of the outcome of the impeachment
proceedings, the bottom line for economic analysts is that political
paralysis is expected to freeze the governments fiscal reform
agenda for the coming months. As the political outlook deteriorates
in Latin Americas largest economy, risks to its economic outlook
are increasing exponentially.
Finally, in Venezuela, citizens headed to the polls on 6 December
in a worryingly-tense political climate. The legislative election was
the tightest since the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela
(PSUV) took power in 1999, with preliminary results showing
that the opposition secured more seats than the PSUV, granting
them a considerable majority in the National Assembly. Political
tensions had been particularly strained since the official start of
the election campaign on 13 November. The opposition claimed
that several government supporters carried out violent attacks
on opposition candidates and intimidated voters who favored
the opposition with the tragic result of the assassination of an
opposition leader. Although the election results pave the way for an
amnesty to political prisoners and a potential recall vote to remove
Nicols Maduro from the presidency, they will not remedy the
dire economic situation in Venezuela that has taken a significant
turn for the worse. Rampant inflation and shortages of consumer
items, widespread corruption and infrastructure degradation also
continue to be immense concerns for Venezuelan authorities. Any
possibility of a climate that could support some sort of responsible
macroeconomic stabilization for the country is likely to be fraught
with many difficulties going forward.
The death or retirement of Latin Americas charismatic leaders
along with the end of the commodities super cycle indicate that
the socialist tide in Latin America may be receding, and with it, the
possible end of fiscal mismanagement, governance deterioration,
bloated governments and international isolation.
Change in GDP Growth Forecasts

2015
2016
Colombia
Argentina
Mexico
Peru
Colombia
Mexico
Andean Com.
Chile
Chile
Andean Com.
Peru
Latin America
Latin America
Argentina
Mercosur
Venezuela
Brazil
Mercosur
Venezuela
-0.6
Brazil
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
-0.8
-0.6
Note: Change between November 2015 and December 2015 in percentage points.
Source: LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
.
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
OUTLOOK | Regions economy will disappoint this year; 2016

outlook, though stronger, is lackluster
Contrary to initial expectations, Latin America is projected to
contract 0.2% this year. This months GDP projection is 1.7
percentage points lower than the GDP figure projected at the
beginning of the year. Indeed, 2015 was characterized by a
drastic economic deceleration in many economies across Latin
America, with particularly disappointing performances in Brazil
and Venezuela, which both are mired in deep depressions. While
a slump in commodities prices, a deceleration in China and
tough global financial conditions were the main drivers behind
the regions sharp deceleration, domestic factors exacerbated
the slowdown in many countries. Unfortunately, the economists
surveyed for this months LatinFocus Consensus Forecasts do
not foresee much of an improvement in 2016. Analysts slashed
the regions GDP growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points over
|4
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
the previous month and now see the economy increasing 0.6% in
2016. This is mainly explained by a lackluster economic recovery
across the region and less pronounced contractions in Brazil and
Venezuela.
The cut in the 2016 GDP growth forecast resulted from a
reduction in the projections for 9 of the 11 economies surveyed.
Colombia and Paraguay were the only two countries whose
forecasts were unchanged over last month. Moreover, many Latin
American economies will continue to face growth divergence in
2016. Again, the Atlantic-facing economies of Argentina, Brazil
and Venezuelathe largest members of the Mercosur bloc
will either experience meagre economic growth or remain in
recession. On the other side of the continent, Chile, Colombia,
Mexico and Peruwhich make up the Pacific Alliancewill
experience stronger expansions. Nevertheless, growth in the
Pacific Alliance economies is expected to remain below potential
due to the headwinds caused by still-low global commodities
prices, the potential impact a Fed rate tightening could have on
financial conditions, as well as domestic political challenges.
Brazil
Economic Growth
-3
-2
2015
-6
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
Q1 2012 - Q4 2016.
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

-4
BRAZIL | Congress launches impeachment of Rousseff amid

deepening recession
Brazils economy recorded the largest annual contraction on
record in Q3, undershooting analysts already dismal expectations
for Latin Americas largest economy. Low commodity prices, high
inflation, depressed confidence levels and political crisis have
combined to push the economy into a deep recession with no
end in sight. Data for the beginning of the fourth quarter remains
abysmal: business confidence deteriorated and the manufacturing
PMI fell to an almost-seven-year low in November. On the political
front, things went from bad to worse for President Dilma Rousseffs
government this month. On 2 December, political tensions, which
have stalled economic reforms in Congress, came to a head when
Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Eduardo Cunha, initiated
the process of impeachment against the President. While at
this stage impeachment seems unlikely, the process could take
months and will likely push much-need economic reforms to the
backburner in the meantime.
Brazils outlook is grim. The economy is unlikely to rebound
without vital reforms and panelists are doubtful that change will
happen in the near-term. FocusEconomics panelists see the
economy contracting 3.2% in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees the
economy remaining in a deep recession and falling 1.8%, which
is down 0.7 percentage points from last months forecast. (see
details on page 35)
MEXICO | Economic activity gains further traction in Q3
Mexicos economy continued to gain traction in the second half of
the year. More complete data showed that GDP expanded 2.6%
annually in Q3, which was faster than the 2.4% increase observed
in Q2. Q3s result was also revised up from a previous preliminary
estimate. Economic growth continues to benefit from strong
growth in agriculture and services, particularly in transportation,
business and financial services. Despite headwinds from the
|5
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
Economic Growth
Summary
4.0
3.5
2.0
ARGENTINA | Macri ends 12 years of political establishment

and faces significant challenges ahead
Mauricio Macrithe representative of the conservative Lets
Change coalitiontriumphed in the run-off elections held on 22
November. Macris biggest challenges will be addressing the
countrys macroeconomic imbalances and building international
investor confidence. If managed efficiently, his agenda should
facilitate the countrys access to international capital markets and
jumpstart the struggling economy. Growth in the first half of the
year was mainly driven by a surge in government spending, but
latest data point to a deceleration of the economy in the second
half. Industrial production swung to contraction in September and
exports dropped at a double-digit rate in October. Nevertheless,
in recent months consumers have become more optimistic
regarding the future of the economy on expectations that the new
government will shift to more orthodox policies. Consistent with
this, the consumer confidence index improved in November and
reached its highest level in over eight years.
2
2.5
2015

Q1 2012 - Q4 2016.
Argentina
Economic Growth
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

-4
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
Q1 2012 - Q4 2016.
2015
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

U.S. manufacturing sector, business and operating conditions in

Mexicos manufacturing sector continued to improve in November,
reflecting faster output growth, lower inventories and higher rates
of employment. The economys vulnerable side continues to be the
external sector. Exports suffered another significant contraction in
October and the 12-month rolling trade deficit reached another
multi-year high in the same month.
After a modestly-disappointing 2015, in which falling oil production
and global headwinds dragged on economic growth, next year
Mexicos economy is expected benefit from the recovery of the
U.S. economy, the implementation of structural reforms and strong
domestic demand. However, risks remain tilted to the downside
in the form of low oil prices and public spending cuts. Following
an expected 2.4% expansion in 2015, analysts surveyed this
month by FocusEconomics see GDP increasing 2.8% in 2016.
This months forecast was revised down from the 2.9% increase
projected last month. (see details on page 82)
3.0
0
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
December 2015
-2
GDP growth is likely to decelerate in the short term as the economy

slowly adjusts to the new governments macroeconomic policies.
Moreover, external threats such as a deceleration in Brazil and low
commodity prices cloud the outlook going forward. The panelists
we surveyed for this months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
expect GDP to expand 1.3% in 2015 and 0.5% in 2016, which
is down 0.4 percentage points from last months estimate. (see
details on page 21)
VENEZUELA | Opposition wins legislative elections, country
likely to face political instability
Venezuela headed to the polls on 6 December in what were
the tightest elections since the ruling Socialist United Party of
Venezuela (PSUV) came to power in 1999. Preliminary results
show that the political opposition won 99 of 167 seats in the
legislative election while the PSUV won 46 seats with 22 seats
still to be counted. The new seat distribution enables the political
opposition to push laws for the first time in well over a decade.
|6
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
Economic Growth
Summary
4
0
-4
-4
-8
2015
-12
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
Q1 2012 - Q4 2016.
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

-8
December 2015
However, the political and economic direction the country will

take going forward is still uncertain. Meanwhile, the Venezuelan
National Assembly approved the budget for 2016 on 1 December.
The VEF 1.6 trillion budget, equivalent to USD 247 billion at the
official exchange rate, is twice as large as the budget for 2015.
The 2016 budget assumes the price of oil to be USD 40 per barrel.
The government, however, did not make an official forecast for
inflation or economic growth.
Despite the change in Venezuelas Legislative Assembly, the
countrys growth prospects are grim. A shrinking economy,
runaway inflation and low oil prices are likely to propel the largest
contraction in over a decade this year. Economic analysts who
took part in this months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel
see a 8.0% contraction in GDP for 2015. For 2016, the panel sees
GDP falling 4.5%, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last
months forecast. (see details on page 113)
INFLATION | Region trapped in stagflation in 2015; doubledigit inflation expected in 2016
Inflation in Latin America continued the upward trend that has
been observed since December of last year. According to an
estimate elaborated by FocusEconomics, inflation in the region
stood at 18.3% in October, which overshot the 17.6% registered in
September. As inflation in the region remains elevated and given
that economic activity is expected to have remained depressed
for the remainder of the year, the economy of Latin America
will remained trapped in stagflation (economic stagnation and
inflation) in 2015.
Inflation is projected to end this year at 18.7%, according to the
panel of analysts that participated in this months LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast. For next year, inflation will remain high,
mainly as a result of the effects of weaker exchange rates.
Analysts surveyed this month by FocusEconomics expect Latin
Americas inflation to end 2016 at 17.5%. This months result
was up 1.8 percentage points from last months projection and
reflected upward revisions to the inflation outlook for 6 of the 11
economies surveyed. The inflation forecasts for four economies
were left unchanged, while Paraguay was the only country for
which the forecast was revised down. Venezuela continues to
be a source of concern as inflation is expected to remain above
150% in 2016.
Ricardo Aceves
Senior Economist
|7
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in %

2013
3.0
4.2
1.4
2.9
2.9
3.0
14.2
5.1
1.3
5.2
6.8
4.9
4.6
5.8
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
1.2
1.9
2.3
-0.1
0.5
0.1
4.4
3.5
-3.7
3.8
5.5
4.6
3.7
2.4
2015
-0.2
2.1
2.4
-2.7
1.3
-3.2
3.3
2.0
-8.0
2.5
4.4
2.9
0.1
2.7
2016
0.6
2.5
2.8
-1.6
0.5
-1.8
4.0
2.0
-4.5
2.5
3.8
2.8
-0.5
3.4
2017
1.9
3.0
3.1
0.5
1.4
0.2
3.9
2.7
-0.2
3.2
3.9
3.3
1.0
4.0
GDP Growth, 2016

2018
2.7
3.3
3.4
1.8
2.2
1.4
3.9
3.1
2.0
3.6
4.1
3.7
2.0
4.3
2019
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.0
3.1
2.7
3.8
3.6
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
3.0
4.6
Paraguay
Bolivia
Peru
Colombia
Mexico
Andean Com.
Chile
Uruguay
Latin America
Argentina
Ecuador
Mercosur
Brazil
Venezuela
-6
-3
Notes and sources

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
-2
2013
-4
2014
2015
2016
Latin America Andean Com.
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
GDP per capita, USD

Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2013
10,222
15,710
10,666
12,278
15,039
11,878
4,275
17,099
12,401
6,747
2,778
8,060
6,008
6,540
2014
9,917
14,535
10,824
11,624
12,900
11,567
4,369
16,745
11,323
6,716
2,934
7,919
6,297
6,458
2015
8,517
13,312
9,435
9,625
13,169
8,769
4,083
15,933
10,989
5,842
3,146
6,155
6,456
6,023
2016
7,941
13,070
9,431
8,438
10,727
7,694
3,904
15,045
10,500
5,711
3,323
5,859
6,535
5,929
GDP per capita, 2016

2017
8,241
13,706
10,062
8,623
11,338
7,824
4,104
15,993
10,368
5,974
3,510
6,250
6,688
6,088
2018
8,790
14,524
10,880
9,187
13,199
8,115
4,509
17,722
10,840
6,379
3,738
6,820
6,884
6,424
2019
9,365
15,489
11,812
9,716
14,297
8,512
4,941
19,594
11,299
6,857
3,995
7,495
7,136
6,809
Uruguay
Chile
Argentina
Venezuela
Mexico
Mercosur
Latin America
Brazil
Ecuador
Peru
Colombia
Andean Com.
Paraguay
20,000
Bolivia
2013
2014
2015
2016
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Notes and sources

15,000
Note: GDP per capita in current USD.

10,000
5,000
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
|8
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
Consumption, annual variation in %

2013
3.6
5.5
2.3
3.8
4.4
3.5
4.7
5.2
4.7
5.0
5.9
4.9
4.2
5.5
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
1.7
2.6
2.0
0.6
-0.5
1.3
4.4
4.2
-3.5
4.7
5.4
4.7
3.5
5.1
2015
-0.1
2.3
3.0
-2.8
0.9
-3.3
4.0
2.6
-7.7
2.9
4.9
3.0
0.4
3.6
2016
0.3
2.6
3.1
-2.3
-0.1
-2.6
3.6
2.7
-5.2
2.4
4.0
2.6
-0.7
3.5
2017
1.8
3.0
3.3
0.3
1.8
-0.1
3.7
3.0
-0.7
3.0
4.0
3.2
0.5
4.0
Consumption Growth, 2016

2018
2.7
3.4
3.5
1.9
3.0
1.5
3.8
3.3
2.1
3.6
4.1
3.7
1.3
4.4
2019
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.6
4.2
3.1
3.9
3.6
4.8
4.1
4.2
4.2
2.1
4.9
Bolivia
Paraguay
Peru
Mexico
Uruguay
Chile
Colombia
Andean Com.
Latin America
Argentina
Ecuador
Mercosur
Brazil
Venezuela
-6
4
-3
Notes and sources

Note: Total consumption, real annual variation in %. Data for Argentina,
Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela refer to private
consumption.
-2
2013
-4
2014
2015
2016
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Investment, annual variation in %

2013
3.0
2.1
-1.6
3.8
3.1
5.8
11.9
4.3
-9.0
7.3
11.7
6.0
10.7
7.4
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
-1.7
-6.1
2.3
-5.5
-5.5
-4.5
8.4
2.6
-15.0
6.4
9.9
10.9
5.3
-2.1
2015
-3.9
-1.3
4.2
-10.0
0.2
-12.1
6.2
0.1
-18.5
0.2
5.4
2.6
-1.7
-3.3
2016
-0.8
1.2
4.4
-5.1
3.1
-6.8
6.2
2.1
-10.0
1.3
4.8
2.9
-3.9
1.3
2017
1.9
1.9
4.8
-0.4
4.2
-1.0
5.9
2.5
-5.4
2.5
4.8
3.6
-2.6
3.4
Investment Growth, 2016

2018
3.8
3.1
5.4
2.8
5.1
2.4
5.5
2.8
0.3
3.9
5.1
4.4
-0.3
5.2
2019
5.6
4.4
5.9
5.9
6.0
5.9
5.1
3.1
5.9
5.2
5.3
5.2
2.1
7.0
Paraguay
Bolivia
Mexico
Argentina
Colombia
Uruguay
Andean Com.
Peru
Chile
Latin America
Ecuador
Mercosur
Brazil
10
Venezuela
-15
-10
-5
10
Notes and sources

Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %.
-5
-10
2013
-15
2014
2015
2016
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
|9
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
Industrial Production, annual variation in %

2013
0.6
0.2
-0.6
0.8
-4.3
2.1
8.2
4.1
-0.3
1.7
7.2
-1.8
5.6
5.7
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
-1.0
-1.1
2.5
-3.0
-1.8
-3.1
9.9
1.1
-6.3
0.4
4.9
1.3
3.0
-3.3
2015
-2.9
-0.4
1.6
-6.2
-0.3
-7.4
5.0
4.6
-11.6
0.5
4.5
1.1
0.4
-1.2
2016
-0.1
1.4
2.8
-2.3
0.1
-2.4
6.5
3.2
-7.1
2.8
4.4
4.2
0.9
1.4
2017
1.5
2.2
3.0
0.5
1.4
0.4
5.3
3.3
-1.3
3.1
4.8
3.7
1.8
2.4
December 2015
Industrial Production Growth, 2016
2018
2.5
2.6
3.4
2.3
2.7
2.0
5.0
3.7
2.5
3.4
5.2
3.6
2.6
3.3
2019
3.6
3.1
3.8
4.0
4.0
3.5
4.6
4.0
6.3
3.8
5.5
3.4
3.3
4.3
Paraguay
Bolivia
Colombia
Uruguay
Andean Com.
Mexico
Peru
Chile
Ecuador
Argentina
Latin America
Mercosur
Brazil
5
2013
2014
2015
Venezuela
2016
-10
-5
10
Notes and sources

0
Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %.

Sources: National statistical institutes.
-5
-10
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Retail Sales, annual variation in %

2013
3.5
5.2
1.1
4.3
4.7
5.9
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Brazil
Colombia
Peru
2014
2.9
2.6
2.7
2.2
7.6
4.4
2015
0.4
2.5
4.8
-3.7
4.1
3.6
2016
1.2
2.8
3.7
-1.5
3.3
3.5
2017
2.4
3.4
4.2
0.4
3.9
4.0
Retail Sales, 2016

2018
3.3
3.8
4.5
1.8
4.3
5.0
2019
4.1
4.2
4.9
3.1
4.7
6.0
Mexico
Peru
Colombia
Chile
10
Latin America
2013
2014
2015
2016
Brazil
5
-3
Notes and sources

Note: Retail sales, real annual variation in %.
Peru: Real annual variation in % of commerce sector.
-5
Latin America
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
| 10
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
Unemployment, % of active population

2013
6.3
6.0
4.9
5.9
7.1
5.4
6.5
6.5
7.5
7.7
4.0
9.7
4.7
6.0
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
6.0
6.3
4.8
5.5
7.3
4.8
6.0
6.6
7.0
7.4
4.0
9.1
5.1
5.9
2015
6.9
6.5
4.4
7.3
7.5
7.0
6.4
7.1
8.5
7.4
4.0
9.1
5.4
6.4
2016
7.8
6.8
4.2
9.1
8.4
9.1
6.3
7.3
10.4
7.5
4.0
9.3
6.2
6.4
2017
7.5
6.7
4.0
8.8
7.9
8.7
6.6
6.9
11.5
7.4
4.1
9.2
6.2
6.0
Unemployment, 2016
2018
7.2
6.6
4.0
8.4
7.3
8.1
6.7
6.7
12.0
7.2
4.2
9.0
6.0
5.8
2019
6.9
6.5
3.9
8.0
6.7
7.6
6.7
6.4
12.5
7.1
4.3
8.8
5.7
5.5
10
Venezuela
Colombia
Brazil
Mercosur
Argentina
Latin America
Andean Com.
Uruguay
Chile
Peru
Paraguay
Ecuador
Mexico
Bolivia
2013
2014
2015
2016
12
Notes and sources

8
Note: Unemployment rate as % of active population (for details see

notes in country).
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico

2013
-2.9
-0.6
-2.3
-2.7
-1.7
-3.1
-2.0
-2.3
-1.9
-1.5
0.7
-2.2
-4.6
0.9
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
-4.9
-1.6
-3.2
-5.7
-2.5
-6.2
-2.3
-3.5
-7.6
-2.3
-3.4
-2.6
-5.4
-0.1
2015
-6.7
-3.0
-3.5
-8.5
-5.3
-9.5
-2.2
-3.4
-9.4
-3.4
-4.6
-3.2
-5.9
-2.2
2016
-5.8
-2.7
-3.1
-7.0
-4.2
-7.8
-1.9
-3.2
-7.6
-3.6
-4.7
-3.7
-4.7
-2.6
Fiscal Balance, 2016

2017
-4.9
-2.2
-2.8
-5.8
-4.0
-6.5
-1.9
-2.7
-6.3
-2.9
-4.3
-3.1
-3.6
-1.9
2018
-4.1
-1.7
-2.5
-4.6
-3.4
-5.2
-1.8
-2.4
-4.5
-2.3
-4.0
-2.6
-2.8
-1.3
2019
-3.3
-1.2
-2.2
-3.4
-2.8
-3.9
-1.7
-2.0
-2.7
-1.7
-3.6
-2.0
-1.9
-0.7
Paraguay
Peru
Chile
Mexico
Uruguay
Andean Com.
Colombia
Argentina
Bolivia
Ecuador
Latin America
Mercosur
Venezuela
Brazil
-8
-2
-4
-2
Notes and sources

Note:
Argentina: Non-financial public sector.
Brazil: Public sector borrowing requirement.
Chile: Central government.
Colombia: Central government.
Ecuador: Non-financial public sector.
Mexico: Non-financial public sector.
Peru: Non-financial public sector.
Venezuela: Non-financial central government.
Sources: National statistical institutes and finance ministries.
-4
-6
-8
2013
-10
-6
2014
Latin America
2015
2016
Andean Com.
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
| 11
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
Inflation, variation of consumer prices in %

2013
8.5
3.0
4.0
12.2
11.0
5.9
3.7
8.5
56.2
2.5
6.5
1.9
2.7
2.9
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
10.5
4.6
4.1
15.7
23.9
6.4
4.2
8.3
68.5
3.6
5.2
3.7
3.7
3.2
2015
18.7
4.5
2.6
32.1
16.6
10.2
3.6
9.1
179.6
4.8
4.6
5.9
3.5
3.8
2016
17.5
3.5
3.4
31.6
27.6
6.3
4.3
8.7
164.8
3.7
5.1
4.0
3.3
3.2
2017
13.6
3.2
3.5
24.0
24.8
5.6
4.3
7.9
118.3
3.2
5.7
3.4
2.6
2.9
Inflation, 2016
2018
10.8
3.1
3.6
18.5
20.3
5.1
4.6
7.1
84.1
3.0
5.8
3.1
2.3
2.6
2019
8.0
3.0
3.7
12.9
15.9
4.6
5.0
6.3
49.8
2.7
6.0
2.8
1.9
2.4
Venezuela
Mercosur
Argentina
Latin America
Uruguay
Brazil
Bolivia
Paraguay
Colombia
Andean Com.
Chile
Mexico
Ecuador
40
Peru
2013
2014
2015
2016
40
80
120
160
200
Notes and sources
30
Note: End-of-year variation of consumer price index in %.

20
10
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Interest Rate, %
2013
8.55
4.50
3.50
11.79
17.75
10.00
6.00
5.09
14.74
3.99
11.41
3.25
4.53
4.00
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
9.14
3.00
3.00
13.25
19.61
11.75
6.75
8.49
14.84
4.47
8.00
4.50
5.18
3.50
2015
11.03
3.40
3.22
16.92
27.03
14.25
5.63
5.40
17.22
5.02
8.50
5.71
4.45
3.63
2016
11.28
3.77
3.95
17.70
30.54
13.38
5.38
5.75
23.52
5.17
8.90
5.54
4.60
4.17
Interest Rate, 2016

2017
10.59
4.11
4.50
16.19
27.11
12.13
5.25
5.91
22.60
5.15
8.96
5.18
5.23
4.26
2018
10.00
4.34
5.08
14.68
22.10
11.22
5.31
6.04
21.64
5.16
9.07
4.99
5.62
4.36
2019
9.28
4.57
5.66
12.95
17.09
10.31
5.38
6.17
20.68
5.17
9.19
4.80
6.01
4.46
Mercosur
Brazil
Latin America
Bolivia
Uruguay
Colombia
Paraguay
Andean Com.
Ecuador
Peru
Mexico
40
Chile
2013
2014
2015
2016
10
20
30
40
Notes and sources
30
20
10
Argentina
Venezuela
Latin America
Andean Com.
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %.

Argentina: Central Bank 30-59 days deposit rate.
Bolivia: Prime lending rate.
Brazil: SELIC rate.
Chile: Monetary policy rate.
Colombia: Central Bank intervention rate.
Ecuador: 91-120 days deposit rate.
Mexico: 1-day target interbank rate.
Paraguay: Monetary policy rate.
Peru: Monetary policy rate.
Uruguay: 30-day deposit rate.
Venezuela: 90-day average deposit rate.
Sources: National central banks.
| 12
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
Exchange Rates vs. USD, annual variation in %

Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2013
14.1
9.8
1.3
21.6
32.6
15.3
8.1
10.2
46.5
7.6
-1.4
9.2
9.5
2014
13.2
15.5
13.1
14.0
29.8
12.5
0.8
15.3
0.0
14.5
0.0
23.8
7.0
2015
47.7
15.5
13.4
78.2
31.1
47.6
20.2
22.4
331.2
17.4
0.0
28.7
12.7
2016
15.9
0.6
-0.6
31.3
33.8
4.7
6.3
11.1
161.2
1.3
1.8
0.2
3.5
2017
3.6
-0.1
-2.2
8.4
10.5
2.6
-3.5
-0.5
36.9
-1.0
1.3
-2.6
0.3
Depreciation versus USD, 2016

2018
2.1
-1.0
-2.3
5.6
11.2
1.8
-2.5
-0.5
16.3
-1.8
1.1
-3.7
-0.5
2019
1.7
-1.0
-2.3
5.1
10.1
1.8
-2.5
-0.5
14.0
-1.9
1.1
-3.8
-0.5
90
Venezuela
Argentina
Mercosur
Latin America
Uruguay
Paraguay
Brazil
Peru
Bolivia
Andean Com.
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
-100
100
200
60
Notes and sources
30
Note: Annual variation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive

number means currency is losing value against USD. Regional
aggregates provided only as indicative information.
Sources: Central banks and Thomson Reuters.
2013
-30
2014
2015
2016
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Current Account Balance, % of GDP

Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2013
-2.5
-3.7
-2.4
-2.2
-0.7
-3.1
1.7
-4.9
1.4
-2.9
3.4
-3.3
-1.0
-4.2
2014
-2.9
-1.2
-1.9
-3.1
-1.1
-4.4
-0.3
-4.5
2.5
-3.9
0.1
-5.2
-0.6
-4.0
2015
-3.0
-0.6
-2.6
-3.2
-1.7
-3.8
-1.2
-3.9
-2.7
-4.8
-3.8
-6.1
-3.0
-3.9
2016
-2.6
-1.2
-2.7
-2.4
-1.5
-2.9
-1.0
-3.6
-1.3
-4.2
-4.1
-5.2
-2.5
-3.5
Current Account Balance, 2016
2017
-2.3
-1.4
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-2.5
-0.9
-3.7
-0.1
-3.7
-3.0
-4.6
-2.3
-3.2
2018
-2.1
-1.6
-2.3
-1.8
-1.5
-2.3
-0.6
-3.8
0.5
-3.3
-2.1
-4.0
-2.2
-3.0
2019
-2.0
-1.9
-2.1
-1.6
-1.6
-2.1
-0.4
-4.0
1.0
-2.9
-1.1
-3.5
-2.2
-2.9
Paraguay
Chile
Venezuela
Argentina
Mercosur
Ecuador
Latin America
Mexico
Brazil
Peru
Uruguay
Bolivia
Andean Com.
Colombia
-6
-1
-4
-2
Notes and sources

Note: Current account balance as % of GDP.
-2
-3
-4
-5
2013
Latin America
Andean Com.
Mercosur
Argentina
2014
Brazil
2015
2016
Mexico
| 13
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
Exports, annual variation in %

2013
0.0
-1.7
2.5
-1.2
1.8
-0.2
16.7
3.4
-8.6
-3.0
3.9
-2.2
4.6
-9.5
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
-2.4
-1.1
4.5
-8.6
-11.9
-7.0
-3.6
0.9
-11.8
-4.3
5.2
-6.8
3.6
-7.9
2015
-9.6
-10.6
-0.8
-19.7
-14.9
-14.1
-4.1
-10.1
-44.3
-19.6
-10.3
-25.4
-22.7
-12.3
2016
4.1
1.1
4.7
4.0
3.1
3.9
6.5
3.3
5.5
4.5
0.8
6.9
2.8
3.7
Export Growth, 2016

2017
5.7
1.6
7.7
4.3
3.8
3.8
7.2
4.3
6.4
6.6
1.8
8.8
3.6
7.3
2018
6.8
2.1
9.3
4.5
4.6
3.7
7.8
6.6
6.5
8.1
3.9
9.7
4.2
9.4
2019
7.9
2.6
10.9
4.7
5.5
3.6
8.3
8.9
6.6
9.5
5.9
10.7
4.8
11.5
Colombia
Paraguay
Venezuela
Mexico
Andean Com.
Latin America
Mercosur
Brazil
Peru
Uruguay
Argentina
Ecuador
Chile
10
Bolivia
0
Notes and sources

0
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports.

-10
2013
-20
Mercosur
Argentina
2014
Brazil
2015
2016
Mexico
Imports, annual variation in %

2013
2.4
-1.1
2.8
4.3
8.3
7.4
7.6
-5.4
-10.6
3.3
12.9
0.9
6.6
2.7
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
-1.2
-9.0
4.9
-7.0
-11.3
-4.4
1.1
-2.6
-15.1
3.3
8.9
7.9
2.1
-3.3
2015
-7.5
-10.2
1.4
-18.7
-10.1
-21.4
-2.8
-8.1
-24.2
-12.2
-4.2
-13.6
-17.4
-8.6
2016
2.0
3.0
4.7
-2.5
1.3
-4.0
5.6
2.0
-5.2
0.2
1.4
-1.0
0.0
1.6
Import Growth, 2016

2017
4.4
2.9
7.3
0.6
3.1
-0.2
5.8
1.8
-1.6
2.8
2.4
1.9
1.5
4.7
2018
6.0
2.8
9.0
2.5
4.8
1.4
6.4
4.5
1.9
4.6
3.9
3.7
2.7
7.1
2019
7.6
2.7
10.6
4.4
6.5
3.0
7.1
7.2
5.5
6.5
5.5
5.4
4.0
9.5
Paraguay
Mexico
Chile
Latin America
Uruguay
Peru
Bolivia
Argentina
Andean Com.
Ecuador
Colombia
Mercosur
Brazil
10
Venezuela
-10
-5
10
Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports.

-10
-20
2013
-30
2014
2015
2016
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
| 14
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
International Reserves, months of imports

2013
8.6
6.6
5.6
13.3
5.0
18.0
5.9
16.9
4.9
11.2
15.5
9.2
1.9
18.7
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
9.0
7.1
5.8
14.6
5.8
19.0
6.8
18.9
5.9
10.9
15.0
9.3
1.7
18.3
2015
9.3
7.8
5.1
17.6
5.2
24.6
6.8
20.3
5.2
11.9
14.9
10.6
1.7
19.1
2016
9.2
7.6
5.0
18.0
6.3
25.2
6.6
20.1
4.9
11.8
14.3
10.6
1.8
18.7
2017
9.2
8.1
5.0
18.5
6.5
25.9
6.6
20.9
6.0
11.7
13.8
10.6
2.1
18.2
International Reserves, 2016

2018
9.1
8.3
4.8
19.1
6.9
26.7
6.7
21.5
6.6
11.4
13.2
10.5
2.3
17.4
2019
8.8
8.6
4.5
19.2
7.1
27.0
6.6
21.5
7.0
11.0
12.4
10.2
2.5
16.3
Brazil
Uruguay
Peru
Mercosur
Bolivia
Andean Com.
Colombia
Latin America
Chile
Paraguay
Argentina
Mexico
Venezuela
30
Ecuador
2013
2014
2015
2016
10
20
30
Notes and sources

20
Note: International reserves as months of imports.

Sources: Central banks.
10
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
External Debt, % of GDP

2013
19.3
47.2
20.2
17.7
22.6
12.9
46.3
39.4
34.3
25.4
25.8
24.2
19.8
30.1
Latin America
Chile
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Andean Com.
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
2014
21.3
56.5
21.8
19.5
26.5
15.0
47.2
42.4
32.3
27.8
25.7
26.8
24.1
31.8
2015
25.4
61.3
24.6
24.6
27.9
19.7
50.4
46.3
39.6
33.3
25.8
36.4
27.2
33.4
2016
28.5
63.0
26.5
29.2
37.5
23.1
56.1
51.0
41.6
35.6
27.8
39.3
30.0
34.9
External Debt, 2016

2017
29.2
63.0
27.4
30.4
38.5
24.2
54.3
48.6
43.4
35.0
27.9
37.6
29.9
35.3
2018
28.8
62.3
26.3
30.3
34.7
25.4
50.9
45.7
42.3
34.5
27.5
37.2
29.5
34.4
2019
28.4
61.0
25.1
30.4
33.5
26.2
47.7
43.1
41.4
33.7
26.9
36.3
28.9
33.4
Chile
Paraguay
Uruguay
Venezuela
Colombia
Argentina
Andean Com.
Peru
Ecuador
Mercosur
Latin America
Bolivia
Mexico
40
2013
2014
2015
Brazil
2016
20
40
60
80
Notes and sources

30
Note: External debt as % of GDP.

Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance
ministries.
20
10
Mercosur
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
| 15
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
Major Risk Indicators | EMBI Spreads and Sovereign Ratings

Sovereign Spreads (bps)
November
October
487
489
432
410
218
224
289
285
1,207
1,252
218
216
229
224
266
274
2,605
2,692
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Mexico
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
Overview | Spread in bps
Moody's
Rating
Caa1
Ba3
Baa3
Aa3
Baa2
B3
A3
Ba1
A3
Baa2
Caa3
S&P
Rating
SD
BB
BB+
AABBB
B
BBB+
BB
BBB+
BBB
CCC
Outlook
Positive
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Argentina
Brazil
2,000
Venezuela
Fitch Ratings
Ratings
Outlook
RD
BB
Stable
BBBNegative
A+
Stable
BBB
Stable
B
Stable
BBB+
Stable
BB
Stable
BBB+
Stable
BBBStable
CCC
-
Outlook
NM
Stable
Negative
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Positive
Stable
Stable
Negative
EMBI + Latin
Ecuador
1,000
EMBI + Latin
Argentina
Argentina
Brazil
1,500
750
1,000
500
500
250
EMBI + Latin
Brazil
Uruguay
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Chile
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
2008
Chile
Colombia
1,000
1,000
2010
2012
2014
0
2008
EMBI + Latin
Chile
Colombia
EMBI + Latin
Mexico
750
500
500
500
250
250
250
2012
2014
Peru
0
2008
2010
2012
2014
Uruguay
1,000
1,000
EMBI + Latin
2010
4,000
2012
2014
EMBI + Latin
Uruguay
800
750
0
2008
Venezuela
EMBI + Latin
Peru
2014
1,000
EMBI + Latin
750
2010
2012
Mexico
750
0
2008
2010
Venezuela
3,000
600
500
2,000
400
250
0
2008
1,000
200
2010
2012
2014
0
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2008
2010
2012
2014
| 16
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
Major Stock Markets | Performance in %

November 2015
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Latin America
Emerging Markets
World
MSCI Price Indices (USD)

Last Month
Last 3 Months Last 12 Months
-9.9
7.9
-7.4
-3.3
-10.7
-46.8
-7.7
-7.7
-23.2
-16.4
-12.9
-48.2
-3.1
-0.2
-18.3
-8.7
-5.8
-31.4
-4.4
-6.7
-36.2
-4.0
-0.5
-19.0
-1.0
2.6
-4.4
Overview | month-on-month var. in %

World
YTD
2.7
-40.0
-19.8
-43.8
-11.5
-29.1
-29.6
-14.8
-2.4
National Benchmark Stock Indices (local currencies)

Last Month
Last 3 Months Last 12 Months
YTD
4.1
17.6
32.3
51.2
-1.6
-3.2
-17.5
-9.8
-4.2
-3.9
-7.4
-4.5
-8.2
-13.0
-30.4
-27.8
-2.5
-0.7
-1.7
0.6
-3.0
-1.1
-32.3
-30.9
17.1
-12.6
333.1
235.7
-
Argentina
Brazil
200
150
Mexico
150
Brazil
100
Emerging Markets
Latin America
100
Chile
50
Peru
50
Argentina
Argentina
Colombia
-20
Latin America
Latin America
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Brazil
0
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
150
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
100
50
Latin America
Chile
0
Latin America
Colombia
0
Latin America
Mexico
0
Peru
200
150
100
50
Latin America
Peru
0
| 17
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
December 2015
Cross Exchange Rate Forecasts | Year end

United States
U.S. Dollar (USD)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2013
105.3
0.73
6.52
2.36
525.4
1,930
13.04
2.80
6.30
Euro Area
2014
119.7
0.83
8.46
2.66
606.9
2,389
14.75
2.99
6.30
2015
123.4
0.92
11.10
3.92
700.8
3,075
16.73
3.37
27.16
2016
126.9
0.93
14.85
4.11
705.0
3,080
16.63
3.49
70.94
Euro (EUR)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Japan
Japanese Yen (JPY,100)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2013
0.95
0.69
6.19
2.24
498.9
1,833
12.38
2.65
5.98
2013
0.42
44.59
0.31
2.76
222.5
817.1
5.52
1.18
2.67
2014
0.84
0.69
7.07
2.22
507.0
1,995
12.32
2.50
5.26
2015
0.81
0.75
8.99
3.18
568.0
2,492
13.56
2.73
22.01
2016
0.79
0.73
11.70
3.24
555.5
2,427
13.10
2.75
55.90
Argentine Peso (ARS)

United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2013
0.52
54.57
0.38
3.38
1.22
272.3
6.75
1.45
3.26
2014
0.38
45.04
0.31
3.18
228.4
898.8
5.55
1.12
2.37
2015
0.25
31.45
0.24
2.83
178.6
783.8
4.26
0.86
6.92
2016
0.24
30.91
0.23
3.62
171.7
750.1
4.05
0.85
17.28
Chilean Peso (CLP, 100)

United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2013
0.36
37.68
0.26
2.33
0.85
188.0
690.5
4.66
2.25
2016
1.08
136.8
16.01
4.43
760.2
3,321
17.93
3.76
76.49
2013
0.15
16.16
0.11
0.36
80.6
296.1
2.00
0.43
0.97
2014
0.12
14.14
0.10
0.31
71.7
282.2
1.74
0.35
0.74
2015
0.09
11.12
0.08
0.35
63.1
277.0
1.51
0.30
2.45
2016
0.07
8.55
0.06
0.28
47.5
207.4
1.12
0.23
4.78
2013
0.19
20.04
0.14
1.24
0.45
367.3
2.48
0.53
1.20
2014
0.16
19.72
0.14
1.39
0.44
393.6
2.43
0.49
1.04
2015
0.14
17.61
0.13
1.58
0.56
438.8
2.39
0.48
3.88
2016
0.14
18.00
0.13
2.11
0.58
436.8
2.36
0.49
10.06
2014
0.07
8.12
0.06
0.57
0.18
41.15
161.9
0.20
0.43
2015
0.06
7.38
0.06
0.66
0.23
41.90
183.8
0.20
1.62
2016
0.06
7.63
0.06
0.89
0.25
42.41
185.2
0.21
4.27
2014
0.16
19.00
0.13
1.34
0.42
96.33
379.1
2.34
0.47
-
2015
0.04
4.54
0.03
0.41
0.14
25.80
113.2
0.62
0.12
-
2016
0.01
1.79
0.01
0.21
0.06
9.94
43.4
0.23
0.05
-
Mexico
2014
0.42
50.11
0.35
3.54
1.11
254.1
6.18
1.25
2.64
2015
0.33
40.13
0.30
3.61
1.28
227.9
5.44
1.10
8.83
2016
0.32
41.21
0.30
4.82
1.33
228.9
5.40
1.13
23.03
Mexican Peso (MXN)

United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Peru
Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2015
1.08
133.6
12.02
4.25
758.7
3,329
18.11
3.65
29.41
Chile
Colombia
Colombian Peso (COP, 1000)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2014
1.21
144.8
10.24
3.22
734.4
2,890
17.85
3.62
7.62
Argentina
Brazil
Brazilian Real (BRL)
United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2013
1.38
145.1
8.98
3.25
724.0
2,659
17.96
3.85
8.68
2013
0.08
8.08
0.06
0.50
0.18
40.31
148.0
0.21
0.48
Venezuela
2014
0.33
40.04
0.28
2.83
0.89
203.0
799.0
4.93
2.11
2015
0.30
36.62
0.27
3.29
1.16
208.0
912.5
4.96
8.06
2016
0.29
36.39
0.27
4.26
1.18
202.1
883.0
4.77
20.34
Venezuelan Bolvar (VEF)

United States
Japan
Euro Area
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
2013
0.16
16.72
0.12
1.03
0.37
83.40
306.3
2.07
0.44
-
| 18
FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Release Calendar
Calendar
Date
Country
Event
7 December
Venezuela
November Car Sales (**)
8 December
Peru
November Business Confidence (**)
9 December
Brazil
November Consumer Prices
9 December
Mexico
9 December
Peru
October Merchandise Trade (**)
10 December
Chile
November Consumer Confidence (**)
10 December
Paraguay
October Economic Activity
10 December
Peru
Central Bank Meeting
11 December
Ecuador
October Economic Activity (**)
11 December
Mexico
October Industrial Production
11 December
Uruguay
12 December
Venezuela
December OPEC Oil Market Report
15 December
Brazil
October Economic Activity (**)
15 December
Colombia
November Consumer Confidence
15 December
Colombia
Q3 2015 National Accounts (*)
15 December
Peru
16 December
Argentina
16 December
Brazil
October Retail Sales
16 December
Colombia
17 December
Chile
17 December
Mexico
18 December
Colombia
Central Bank Meeting (**)
18 December
Mexico
Q3 2015 National Accounts (by Type)
21 December
Argentina
November Merchandise Trade
21 December
Argentina
November Industrial Production
21 December
Brazil
November Balance of Payments
22 December
Argentina
Q3 2015 National Accounts
22 December
Colombia
Q3 2015 National Accounts
23 December
Argentina
December Consumer Confidence
23 December
Mexico
October Economic Activity (IGAE)
24 December
Mexico
27 December
Brazil
December Consumer Confidence (**)
29 December
Argentina
30 December
Brazil
December Business Confidence (**)
30 December
Ecuador
Q4 2015 National Accounts (**)
30 December
Uruguay
30 December
Venezuela
Q3 2015 National Accounts (**)
1 January
Chile
December Copper Prices (**)
1 January
Peru
December Consumer Prices (**)
4 January
Brazil
December Manufacturing PMI
4 January
Mexico
December IMEF Manufacturing PMI
4 January
Mexico
November Remittances
5 January
Colombia
December Consumer Prices
5 January
Uruguay
7 January
Brazil
December 2015
(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

| 19
FOCUSECONOMICS
December 2015
Economic Release Calendar
Date
Country
Event
7 January
Chile
7 January
Chile
November Economic Activity (IMACEC) (**)
7 January
Chile
7 January
Ecuador
7 January
Venezuela
December Car Sales (**)
8 January
Brazil
8 January
Colombia
November Exports
8 January
Mexico
December Consumer Confidence
8 January
Mexico
9 January
Peru
November Merchandise Trade (**)
9 January
Peru
10 January
Chile
11 January
Ecuador
November Economic Activity (**)
11 January
Venezuela
12 January
Ecuador
12 January
Uruguay
13 January
Brazil
November Retail Sales
15 January
Colombia
15 January
Venezuela
January OPEC Oil Market Report (**)
15 January
Peru
November Economic Activity (**)
15 January
Peru
16 January
Argentina
November Consumer Prices (**)
16 January
Colombia
17 January
Chile
(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

| 20
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
Argentina
Outlook deteriorates
Argentina
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Population (million):
GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
December 2015
2011-13
41.0
597
14,536
4.0
-1.6
32.3
10.1
-0.5
23.9
2014-16
42.4
520
12,265
0.7
-4.0
43.7
19.5
-1.4
30.6
2017-19
43.9
569
12,945
2.2
-3.4
48.6
22.3
-1.5
35.5
Mauricio Macrithe representative of the conservative Lets Change

coalitiontriumphed in the run-off elections held on 22 November. Macris
biggest challenges will be addressing the countrys macroeconomic
imbalances and building international investor confidence. If managed
efficiently, his agenda should facilitate the countrys access to international
capital markets and jumpstart the struggling economy. Growth in the first
half of the year was mainly driven by a surge in government spending
but latest data point to a deceleration of the economy in the second half.
Industrial production swung to contraction in September and exports
dropped at a double-digit rate in October. Nevertheless, in recent months
consumers have become more optimistic regarding the future of the
economy on expectations that the new government will shift to more
orthodox policies. Consistent with this, the consumer confidence index
improved in November and reached its highest level in over eight years.
GDP growth is likely to decelerate in the short term as the economy slowly
adjusts to the new governments macroeconomic policies. Moreover,
external threats such as a deceleration in Brazil and low commodity
prices cloud the outlook going forward. The panelists we surveyed for this
months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect GDP to expand 1.3% in
2015 and 0.5% in 2016, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last
months estimate.
Although still in the double-digits, inflation inched down from Septembers
14.5% to 14.3% in October. Inflation continued to wane mainly due to an
overvalued peso and low commodity prices. Panelists expect inflation to
end 2015 at 16.6% and 2016 at 27.6%.
Dirina Manellari
Economist
POLITICS | Macris victory fuels expectations for economic improvement

Argentina elected Mauricio Macrithe representative of the conservative
Lets Change coalition (Cambiemos)as Cristina Fernandez de Kirchners
successor in the run-off elections held on 22 November, thus fueling
expectations of a shift toward more orthodox macroeconomic policies. Macris
biggest challenge will be addressing the countrys macroeconomic imbalances
and also building international confidence. If managed efficiently, his agenda
should facilitate the countrys access to international markets and kick-start
growth. The main source of uncertainty lies in the new governments ability to
revive the economy against the backdrop of weak domestic fundamentals and
a challenging external environment.
Macri garnered 51.4% of the vote and triumphed over Daniel Sciolithe
candidate from Kirchners Front for Victory party (Frente para la Victoria).
Macris victory was a surprise following Sciolis win in the first round as well as
opinion polls results, which had continuously positioned Scioli ahead of Macri.
Shortly after the elections, the newly-appointed President named his Cabinet,
which incorporates members of different political movements, including a
| 21
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
member from the outgoing government. Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on

the Central Bank governor Alejandro Vanoli to step down in order to make
way for the incoming government to go ahead with its market liberalization
policies.
The election result represents a milestone in Argentinas political history as
it marks the end of Peronist dominancy following more than a decade of leftwing leadership. Macri has promised to unify the foreign exchange market,
remove capital controls, deal with the countrys multiple fiscal problems, scrap
the previous governments subsidies and eventually resolve the holdout saga
with the U.S. hedge funds. However, his to-do list will not be easy to implement
as Argentinas domestic problems such as depleted foreign reserves, poor
statistical data, an overvalued currency and elevated inflationary pressures,
are further exacerbated by external risks, in particular the economic slowdown
in Brazil and low commodity prices. Complicating things further, a divided
Congress will represent an obstacle for Macri as it might make it more difficult
for his government to pass important legislation.
Expectations of a possible liberalization of the foreign exchange market have
significantly increased the demand for U.S. dollars in recent months. This
has urged the Central Bank to intervene in the FX market, which has in turn
depleted its foreign reserves to levels not seen in nearly a decade. Recent
data show that, in November, international reserves plummeted to USD 25.8
billion, which marked the lowest reading since April 2006. Iker Cabiedes,
Economist at JPMorgan, adds:
Gross Domestic Product | variation in %

12.0
We expect FX adjustment to be accompanied by a consistent monetary

tightening to contain inflation expectations by keeping FX pass-through
modest. [] In our view, growth will be subject to a politically complicated
shift from a pro-consumption to a pro-investment growth model. That
said, expected fiscal consolidation and FX adjustment are likely to have a
recessionary impact on consumption, while catalysts to boost investment
early in 2016 are not evident.
8.0
%
4.0
0.0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Note: Annual variation of GDP in %.

Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
The optimism generated by the shift in political landscape and Macris

commitment to change will give the benefit of the doubt to the new government,
however, the optimism will not last long before investors and voters will want
to see some tangible results. In late-November, Moodys changed Argentina
outlook from stable to positive on expectations that the countrys policy stance
will become more credit positive under the new government. Macri will inherit
a beleaguered economy. However, due to the weak fundamentals, it is still
early to estimate to what extend the economy will recover going forward. This
year, growth was fueled by unsustainable macroeconomic policies such as
an increase in fiscal stimulus. So the next administrations challenge will be to
bring the economy onto a more sustainable growth path.
Given the external challenges and the policy adjustment, the economy will
likely decelerate in 2016 before speeding up in the following years. According
to the 2016 budget bill presented by Kirchners administration in September,
Argentinas economy will expand 2.3% this year before accelerating and
growing 3.0% next year. However, FocusEconomics panelists are not as
optimistic as the outgoing government. Our panel expects the economy to
expand 1.3% this year. For 2016, the panelists have downgraded their GDP
growth forecast from last months 0.9% to 0.5%. Moreover, our panel expect
non-official GDP to expand 0.8% this year and contract 0.3% next year.
| 22
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity increases at fastest rate on record

in September
Economic Activity | variation in %

3.0
Economic activity in September increased 2.8% over the same month last
year, which was an improvement over the 2.6% rise seen in the previous
month and marked the fastest increase on record.
Month-on-month
Year-on-year
2.0
%
Economic activity in September was unchanged over the previous month in

seasonally-adjusted terms, which came in above the 0.20% decrease seen
in August.
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Note: Economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Economica),

month-on-month and year-on-year changes in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics
calculations
As a result of the national statistical institutes change to the base year of the
index from 1993 to 2004 in March 2014, the index brings the official estimates
closer to the independent estimates that local private analysts produce,
which have traditionally pointed to lower growth compared to official sources.
However, there is still a discrepancy between official and non-official figures.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production swings to contraction in October
In October, industrial production dropped 2.5% over the same month last year.
The reading contrasted the 0.1% expansion seen in the previous month and
was the first contraction in five months. Octobers result was mainly driven by
decreases in the production of textiles as well as of food and beverages.
Industrial Production | variation in %

5.0
0.0
On a monthly basis, industrial production contracted 1.1% in seasonallyadjusted terms, which followed the 0.8% decrease seen in September and
marked a 10-month low. The annual average variation in industrial production
dropped from a flat reading in September to minus 0.2% in October, which
marked the lowest reading in three months.
-5.0
%
-10.0
Year-on-year
Annual average
-15.0
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production

in %.
calculations.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel participants expect that industrial

production will decrease 0.3% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from
last months forecast. For 2016, the panel expects industrial output to expand
0.1%, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last months estimate.
OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment jumps to highest level in over eight
years in November
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index soared
from 57.0 in October to 60.4 in November, which marked the highest level
since January 2007. As a result, the index rests comfortably above the
50-point-threshold separating optimistic from pessimistic sentiment.
Consumer Confidence
70
Novembers improvement mainly reflected consumers more optimistic

assessment of the countrys economic outlook, which reached the highest
level since November 2010. Moreover, consumers were more positive
regarding their personal financial situations and the sub-index increased from
2.5 in October to 7.8 in November. However, they were less willing to make
major purchases, compared to the previous months report.
60
50
40
30
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
Note: Monthly consumer confidence index. Values above 50 indicate an optimistic

assesment in consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate a pessimistic
assesment.
Source: Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT).
Panelists surveyed by LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see private

consumption expanding 0.9% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from
last months forecast. For 2016, panelists expect consumption to decrease
0.1%, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last months forecast.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation drops to lowest level in nearly two years
in November
Consumer prices in October increased 1.1% over the previous month,
according to the inflation index elaborated by the National Statistics Institute
| 23
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
(INDEC). The reading came in slightly below the 1.2% increase seen in
September and marked a four-month low. The figure was driven by higher
prices for food and beverages as well as for transport. Inflation inched down
from 14.5% in September to 14.3% in October, thus hitting the lowest rate
since December 2013.
Non-Official Inflation
Individual Forecasters
ABECEB
Analytica Consultora
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
C&T Asesores
Deutsche Bank
Econometrica
EIU
Elypsis
Empiria Consultores
Espert & Asociados
Estudio Bein & Asoc.
FIEL
Frontier Strategy Group
Fundacin Capital
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
LCG
Nomura
OJF & Asociados
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
2015
26.9
28.0
29.0
40.0
28.4
26.1
24.4
27.4
23.0
26.8
28.4
29.0
28.6
30.0
26.0
24.6
25.5
28.0
25.0
25.1
25.0
29.0
2016
28.7
35.0
33.1
50.0
30.6
39.0
33.0
27.9
30.0
34.1
38.0
32.5
35.0
30.9
30.0
32.0
30.0
36.2
33.0
38.1
10.0
40.0
26.9
26.7
27.9
50.0
33.0
33.9 .
Note: Non-official inflation estimates, based on annual variation of consumer

prices in %.
Source: LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
Argentinas inflation index, which was introduced early last year, measures
prices nationwide, whereas readings prior to February 2014 were based
solely on Buenos Aires and the surrounding metropolitan area. The index was
implemented in an effort to restore confidence in official inflation data, while
also meeting the deadline that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) set in
December 2013 requiring Argentina to release new GDP and inflation figures
by March 2014. The previous inflation index had been viewed with suspicion
both within the country and abroad for underreporting inflation figures, which
prompted the IMF to censure Argentina for not supplying accurate economic
data.
Suspicions of underreporting, however, have not been completely dispelled
as the price increases that the INDEC has been reporting have been far below
local private analysts independent estimates. The so-called Congress Index
(IPC-Congreso), which is an alternative inflation gauge based on independent
estimates that opposition lawmakers collect, increased 1.9% over the previous
month in September (the latest period for which data are available), which
was down from the 2.3% increase seen in August. The IPC-Congreso inched
down from 26.6% in August to 25.9% in September.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect official inflation of
16.6% at the end of 2015, which is unchanged from last months estimate.
Panelists estimate that official inflation will end 2016 at 27.6%, which is up 1.4
percentage points from last months forecast. The panel expects non-official
inflation of 26.7% in 2015. Analysts see non-official inflation increasing to
33.9% in 2016.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports record stronger contraction in October
In October, exports declined 12.8% over the same month last year, which
represented a stronger contraction compared to the 6.7% drop seen in the
previous month. Octobers decline reflected contractions in industry and
energy exports. On a monthly basis, Octobers exports contracted 4.3% in
seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 5.9% increase seen in the
previous month.
Merchandise Trade
16
Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)
40
Exports (yoy, right scale)

Imports (yoy, right scale)
12
20
%
-20
0
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
-40
Oct-15
Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the
12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
calculations.
In addition, imports in October contracted 10.4% annually, which contrasted

the 0.8% increase tallied in the previous month. The trade surplus totaled
USD 0.25 billion in October, marking a deterioration over the USD 0.44
billion surplus recorded in October 2014. In the 12 months up to October, the
trade balance posted an accumulated surplus of USD 2.4 billion, which was
down from the USD 2.6 billion surplus reached during the 12 months up to
September.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to drop
14.9% in 2015, and they see imports contracting 10.1%, thus pushing the
trade surplus to USD 2.5 billion. For 2016, the panel expects exports to
expand 3.1% and imports to grow 1.3%, with the trade surplus narrowing to
USD 3.7 billion.
| 24
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data
Real Sector
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (ARS bn)
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %)
Domestic Demand (annual var. in %)
Private Consumption (annual var. in %)
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop)
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Central Bank 30-59 Days Dep. Rate (%, eop)
Stock Market (MERVAL variation in %)
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop)
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD bn)
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn)
International Reserves (USD bn)
International Reserves (months of imports)
External Debt (USD bn)
External Debt (% of GDP)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
40.1
11,529
463
1,811
28.3
9.5
12.9
8.1
22.0
9.7
7.8
0.2
35.5
40.6
13,768
559
2,312
27.7
8.4
11.8
10.2
19.4
6.5
7.2
-1.2
32.0
41.0
14,801
607
2,766
19.6
0.8
0.5
4.3
-7.0
-1.1
7.2
-1.8
32.5
41.5
15,039
624
3,406
23.2
2.9
4.2
4.4
3.1
-4.3
7.1
-1.7
32.5
42.0
12,900
541
4,426
29.9
0.5
-1.0
-0.5
-5.5
-1.8
7.3
-2.5
41.0
42.4
13,169
559
5,192
17.3
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.2
-0.3
7.5
-5.3
42.5
42.9
10,727
460
6,302
21.4
0.5
0.6
-0.1
3.1
0.1
8.4
-4.2
47.7
43.4
11,338
492
8,044
27.6
1.4
1.7
1.8
4.2
1.4
7.9
-4.0
48.4
43.9
13,199
579
10,040
24.8
2.2
2.9
3.0
5.1
2.7
7.3
-3.4
48.6
44.4
14,297
635
12,165
21.2
3.1
4.2
4.2
6.0
4.0
6.7
-2.8
48.9
34.6
10.9
10.5
14.6
10.1
51.8
3.97
3.91
29.8
9.5
9.8
12.7
13.3
-30.1
4.30
4.13
38.4
10.8
10.0
13.1
12.4
15.9
4.92
4.55
25.7
11.0
10.6
14.8
17.8
88.9
6.52
5.48
28.9
23.9
21.7
28.3
19.6
59.1
8.46
8.12
31.9
16.6
16.0
27.0
11.10
9.29
29.5
27.6
20.9
30.5
14.85
13.69
25.5
24.8
26.2
27.1
16.41
16.35
20.8
20.3
22.6
22.1
18.25
17.33
16.0
15.9
18.1
17.1
20.09
19.17
-0.3
-1.5
11.4
68.2
56.8
22.5
46.4
2.5
52.2
11.0
131
28.3
-0.7
-3.7
9.7
84.1
74.3
23.3
30.9
3.9
46.4
7.5
142
25.5
-0.2
-1.3
12.2
80.2
68.0
-4.5
-8.5
4.0
43.3
7.6
143
23.6
-0.7
-4.6
8.0
81.7
73.7
1.8
8.3
2.6
30.6
5.0
141
22.6
-1.1
-5.9
6.7
72.0
65.3
-11.9
-11.3
1.7
31.4
5.8
143
26.5
-1.7
-9.5
2.5
61.3
58.7
-14.9
-10.1
25.6
5.2
156
27.9
-1.5
-6.8
3.7
63.2
59.5
3.1
1.3
31.4
6.3
172
37.5
-1.5
-7.5
4.2
65.6
61.4
3.8
3.1
33.0
6.5
189
38.5
-1.5
-9.0
4.3
68.6
64.3
4.6
4.8
36.7
6.9
201
34.7
-1.6
-9.9
3.9
72.4
68.4
5.5
6.5
40.4
7.1
212
33.5
Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. in %)
Unemployment (% of active population)
Central Bank 30-59 Days Dep. Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop)
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Q3 14
-0.2
0.3
-2.4
-0.7
-5.9
-2.1
7.5
23.3
19.4
8.44
8.29
-0.1
-0.8
2.3
19.3
17.0
Q4 14
0.5
0.4
-3.2
-1.1
-8.5
-1.1
6.9
23.9
19.6
8.46
8.51
-0.3
-1.7
1.0
15.8
14.8
Q1 15
2.1
0.7
1.0
0.8
1.2
-1.7
7.1
16.5
22.2
8.82
8.69
-0.7
-3.7
0.2
13.4
13.2
Q2 15
2.3
0.5
2.8
0.8
4.6
0.8
6.6
15.0
21.5
9.10
8.96
-0.3
-2.1
1.1
16.8
15.8
Q3 15
1.1
1.1
1.7
-0.8
1.9
5.9
14.5
22.0
9.43
9.25
-1.2
-7.0
0.3
17.1
16.7
Q4 15
0.4
0.9
1.0
-2.9
0.1
8.0
16.6
27.0
11.10
10.26
-1.4
-7.9
0.3
14.8
14.4
Q1 16
-0.3
-0.6
-0.5
0.8
-0.3
7.9
18.5
29.2
13.50
12.30
-1.5
-6.9
0.6
14.2
13.6
Q2 16
-0.5
-0.4
-1.0
2.5
-0.4
7.8
20.6
29.2
13.98
13.74
-1.2
-5.5
1.9
17.6
15.7
Q3 16
0.7
0.9
0.4
4.4
0.9
8.0
22.5
29.8
14.31
14.14
-1.2
-5.6
0.6
17.5
16.9
Q4 16
2.0
2.6
2.1
7.6
2.8
8.1
27.6
30.5
14.85
14.58
-1.4
-6.9
0.3
15.5
15.2
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (EMAE, annual var. in %)
Cons. Confidence Index (50-point threshold)
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %)
Feb-15
2.2
-2.2
50.5
0.9
18.0
8.72
0.1
-24.6
-24.4
31.5
Mar-15
2.3
-0.2
52.6
1.3
16.5
8.82
0.0
-4.1
-3.8
31.5
Apr-15
2.0
0.6
52.9
1.1
15.8
8.92
0.3
-19.2
-12.0
33.9
May-15
2.1
-1.1
55.0
1.0
15.3
9.00
0.4
-25.9
-15.7
33.3
Jun-15
2.8
3.0
54.9
1.0
15.0
9.10
0.5
-14.0
-6.7
33.9
Jul-15
2.7
2.1
56.1
1.3
14.9
9.20
0.2
-12.3
-3.7
33.9
Aug-15
2.6
3.6
56.8
1.2
14.7
9.30
0.1
-16.0
-2.6
33.6
Sep-15
2.8
0.1
54.6
1.2
14.5
9.43
0.1
-6.7
0.8
33.3
Oct-15
-2.5
57.0
1.1
14.3
9.52
0.3
-12.8
-10.4
27.0
Nov-15
60.4
9.66
25.6
| 25
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %
2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %.
10
-5
-10
Argentina
Latin America
World
-15
2000
2005
2010
Argentina
Latin America
World
-3
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts

6
6
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
-2
-4
Maximum
-2
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
-4
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
5 | GDP 2016 | Panelist Distribution

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Real GDP growth in %
< -4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
> 10.0
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
Banco de Galicia
BBVA Banco Francs
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Citigroup Global Mkts
Credit Suisse
C&T Asesores
Deutsche Bank
Econometrica
EIU
Elypsis
Empiria Consultores
Espert & Asociados
FIEL
Fundacin Capital
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCG
Nomura
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
UIA - CEU
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Additional Forecasts
IMF (Oct. 2015)
World Bank (June 2015)
CEPAL (Oct. 2015)
Official
GDP var. in %
2015
2016
2.0
1.0
0.8
1.4
1.4
0.7
2.5
1.5
0.7
1.5
0.8
2.0
-1.0
2.3
2.7
1.0
-0.1
1.8
1.2
1.2
-0.1
2.2
-2.4
0.9
0.1
1.7
1.1
2.0
0.6
1.8
-0.3
2.3
-1.4
1.0
-0.5
1.3
0.8
-0.5
2.5
-0.5
1.8
0.0
-1.0
0.5
-
Non-Official
GDP var. in %
2015
2016
0.5
-0.3
0.8
-1.0
1.2
0.7
0.5
-1.5
0.5
-1.7
2.0
3.0
0.9
-2.0
1.0
1.5
1.1
-0.1
-2.1
1.5
-2.4
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
-0.2
0.5
-0.5
0.6
-0.5
0.8
-1.4
1.0
1.2
1.0
-0.5
-
-0.5
2.3
1.4
1.3
-2.4
2.7
0.7
0.5
-2.1
2.0
1.0
0.8
-2.4
3.0
-0.5
-0.3
1.1
1.1
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.2
0.6
0.5
0.3
-0.3
0.1
0.4
0.4
1.1
1.6
-0.7
1.8
1.6
Notes and sources

General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from
the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2016 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.
| 26
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment
ABECEB
Banco de Galicia
BBVA Banco Francs
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
C&T Asesores
Deutsche Bank
Econometrica
EIU
Elypsis
Empiria Consultores
Espert & Asociados
FIEL
Fundacin Capital
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCG
Nomura
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
UIA - CEU
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
6 | Consumption | variation in %
Consumption
variation in %
2015
2016
-0.5
-2.1
0.7
0.6
1.4
1.7
0.6
1.5
2.0
-0.6
1.2
0.0
1.0
1.8
-2.4
1.0
3.5
2.3
2.1
0.9
-1.0
1.0
1.1
0.8
-0.9
0.5
2.0
-4.5
1.6
-0.5
0.5
1.5
0.3
0.7
-1.1
1.8
1.0
-1.1
-1.6
0.8
0.5
-0.9
1.5
-1.2
-0.5
-
Investment
variation in %
2015
2016
2.0
2.0
1.4
3.5
0.5
2.5
-5.0
5.5
-4.0
4.0
0.5
5.0
-2.0
-2.9
-2.4
4.0
6.3
2.7
8.4
-2.3
2.5
2.3
4.9
-0.1
4.0
-1.0
7.0
3.5
-0.6
2.9
2.9
-3.3
-2.0
1.0
3.5
-0.2
4.1
-0.2
-2.0
8.0
-2.0
0.5
-
-1.2
2.3
1.0
0.9
-4.5
3.5
0.0
-0.1
-5.0
4.1
0.2
0.2
-3.3
8.4
3.2
3.1
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.9
-0.1
-0.6
-2.2
3.1
3.7
3.7
20
Argentina
Latin America
10
-10
-20
2000
2005
2010
2015
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

4
2015
-2
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
8 | Investment | variation in %
40
20
-20
Argentina
Latin America
-40
2000
2005
2010
2015
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

8
2015
2016
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical
Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-4
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 27
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
Real Sector | Additional Forecasts

Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance
10 | Industry | variation in %
20
10
-10
Argentina
Latin America
-20
2000
2005
2010
2015
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts

4
2015
-2
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

25
Argentina
Latin America
20
15
10
5
2000
2005
2010
ABECEB
Banco de Galicia
BBVA Banco Francs
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
C&T Asesores
Deutsche Bank
Econometrica
EIU
Elypsis
Empiria Consultores
Espert & Asociados
FIEL
Fundacin Capital
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCG
Nomura
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
UIA - CEU
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Industry
variation in %
2015
2016
-0.6
0.3
-1.0
-1.5
0.0
1.4
0.6
1.3
-2.5
-3.0
0.1
-1.5
0.8
-3.0
0.1
2.0
-0.8
0.7
0.2
-2.5
0.8
3.0
-0.8
0.0
0.3
-0.6
-0.4
1.1
-1.0
2.9
-0.6
1.6
-1.0
-
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2015
2016
6.6
7.2
8.1
10.3
7.3
7.6
7.9
8.2
7.8
7.7
9.0
10.0
6.9
7.2
8.0
11.0
6.8
6.5
7.7
8.6
7.1
8.1
7.6
7.7
7.9
10.6
6.9
8.8
7.0
8.1
8.0
9.0
7.2
7.3
8.1
7.5
8.5
7.1
8.0
8.0
8.0
7.1
8.3
7.6
8.0
7.9
-
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2015
2016
-5.1
-6.1
-5.2
-5.3
-4.8
-5.5
-5.0
-7.1
-5.4
-5.2
-3.6
-5.8
-4.5
-6.5
-4.5
-5.1
-4.9
-5.1
-2.6
-5.0
-3.2
-5.7
-5.2
-4.8
-3.5
-6.0
-4.4
-4.5
-3.8
-4.5
-4.4
-3.6
-6.3
-6.1
-6.2
-4.5
-4.0
-4.3
-4.0
-5.0
-4.1
-6.5
-5.0
-6.2
-2.7
-3.9
-4.0
-3.9
-3.0
-4.5
-3.5
-
-2.5
0.8
-0.4
-0.3
-3.0
3.0
0.5
0.1
6.6
9.0
7.6
7.5
6.5
11.0
8.1
8.4
-7.1
-3.6
-5.1
-5.3
-6.2
-2.6
-4.2
-4.2
-0.4
-0.3
-0.7
0.8
1.4
1.4
7.6
7.7
7.7
8.4
8.3
8.2
-5.2
-5.2
-5.0
-4.1
-4.0
-3.8
2015
13 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

5
Argentina
Latin America
Notes and sources

-5
-10
2000
2005
2010
2015
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) and the Ministry of Economy (MECON, Ministerio de Economia y Produccion).
See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INDEC.
11 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INDEC.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: MECON.
| 28
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
Monetary Sector | Inflation

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %
Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %
15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %
30
45
Argentina
Latin America
30
20
15
10
0
Argentina
Latin America
-15
2000
2005
2010
0
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
16 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst

60
40
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum
Minimum
30
40
20
20
10
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
18 | Inflation 2016 | Panelist Distribution

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
< 0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
> 70.0
ABECEB
Banco de Galicia
BBVA Banco Francs
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
C&T Asesores
Deutsche Bank
Econometrica
EIU
Elypsis
Empiria Consultores
Espert & Asociados
FIEL
Fundacin Capital
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCG
Nomura
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
UIA - CEU
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
Government Budget (Sep. 2015)
2015
20.0
15.0
14.3
17.0
17.2
25.5
13.5
14.3
15.0
15.3
16.3
14.7
15.0
15.0
14.3
16.0
16.0
15.7
25.0
-
2016
25.0
17.1
24.0
33.1
28.0
30.0
26.3
30.0
34.1
38.0
22.9
25.0
25.0
35.3
33.0
22.6
17.5
30.0
-
13.5
25.5
15.3
16.6
17.1
38.0
27.1
27.6
16.6
16.7
17.2
26.2
25.3
25.9
19.3
15.4
26.4
14.5
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are
from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts are
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
16 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
18 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2016 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval
in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.
| 29
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

19 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
20 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
30
16
20
12
10
0
2000
2005
2010
4
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
21 | ARS per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst
22 | ARS per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

24
16
Maximum
Consensus
Maximum
Minimum
Consensus
Minimum
14
20
12
16
10
12
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
23 | ARS per USD 2016 | Panelist Distribution

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< 9.00
11.00
13.00
15.00
17.00
19.00
21.00
23.00
Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
ABECEB
Banco de Galicia
BBVA Banco Francs
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
C&T Asesores
Deutsche Bank
Econometrica
EIU
Elypsis
Empiria Consultores
Espert & Asociados
FIEL
Fundacin Capital
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCG
Nomura
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
UIA - CEU
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
9.75
9.60
10.52
11.94
9.55
13.00
10.90
9.70
14.00
9.90
14.43
9.75
12.00
10.95
10.20
9.92
9.70
13.80
12.22
10.05
9.90
10.00
12.00
11.40
11.00
9.80
13.69
10.31
11.10
12.00
11.00
-
2016
14.81
15.00
14.60
15.12
12.75
16.00
15.25
16.00
18.00
12.55
14.67
17.30
14.00
14.31
14.30
15.87
15.80
15.79
14.62
13.00
15.80
14.20
15.50
12.60
17.82
14.03
13.00
14.00
14.00
-
9.55
14.43
10.90
11.10
12.55
18.00
14.67
14.85
10.28
10.20
10.22
14.15
14.08
14.01
> 23.00
Notes and sources

from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
19 Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
20 Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
21 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.
23 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2016 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.
| 30
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance
ABECEB
Banco de Galicia
BBVA Banco Francs
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
C&T Asesores
Deutsche Bank
Econometrica
EIU
Elypsis
Empiria Consultores
Espert & Asociados
FIEL
Fundacin Capital
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCG
Nomura
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
UIA - CEU
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
24 | Current Account | % of GDP
Current Account
% of GDP
2015
2016
-2.2
-2.0
-1.9
-1.8
-1.7
-2.0
-1.9
-2.1
-0.3
0.8
-2.1
-1.2
-1.8
-2.2
-1.5
0.0
-2.2
-2.0
-1.6
-1.9
-2.0
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-1.9
-1.8
-1.2
-2.2
-1.4
-1.8
-0.6
-2.4
-0.7
0.2
0.9
-2.5
-1.6
-1.0
-1.7
-1.5
-1.7
-1.3
-2.2
-3.0
-1.5
-1.0
-2.7
-1.5
-2.1
-1.2
-1.3
-2.3
-1.2
-1.5
-1.8
-1.2
-
Trade Balance
USD bn
2015
2016
1.9
4.3
0.7
2.0
2.5
2.4
1.9
0.5
9.6
14.2
3.5
7.3
1.5
2.0
3.6
7.2
1.7
0.4
2.0
2.6
0.5
2.0
5.3
2.3
1.5
-1.4
2.6
4.4
6.4
-3.1
7.0
1.9
1.7
2.3
2.3
4.0
0.0
-4.0
3.8
7.6
1.3
3.2
6.9
8.9
1.2
7.1
2.6
4.3
4.3
2.7
1.6
-0.1
1.1
-
-2.7
0.2
-1.8
-1.7
-3.0
0.9
-1.8
-1.5
-3.1
9.6
2.0
2.5
-4.0
14.2
2.7
3.7
-1.7
-1.7
-1.7
-1.6
-1.7
-1.6
2.5
2.4
3.2
2.3
2.2
2.9
10
Argentina
Latin America
-5
2000
2005
2010
2015
25 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

-0.5
2015
2016
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
26 | Trade Balance | USD bn

120
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
80
40
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
27 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

14
2015
2016
10
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from National
Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
24 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
25 Current account balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
26 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
27 Trade balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 31
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports
ABECEB
Banco de Galicia
BBVA Banco Francs
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
C&T Asesores
Deutsche Bank
Econometrica
EIU
Elypsis
Empiria Consultores
Espert & Asociados
FIEL
Fundacin Capital
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCG
Nomura
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
UIA - CEU
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
28 | Exports | variation in %
Exports
USD bn
2015
2016
61.0
63.0
61.2
57.0
62.0
63.1
60.2
59.5
61.1
64.2
61.5
59.5
63.5
71.5
57.9
61.0
61.4
65.1
59.4
60.2
59.4
58.0
64.3
63.8
62.1
65.2
60.7
63.1
62.5
57.3
63.0
61.0
61.1
62.3
61.4
65.0
57.2
57.1
59.5
61.6
61.1
62.7
67.7
69.0
62.1
68.4
62.4
65.0
64.0
67.2
61.1
65.9
60.5
-
Imports
USD bn
2015
2016
59.1
58.7
60.5
55.0
59.5
60.7
58.3
59.0
51.5
50.0
58.0
52.2
62.0
69.5
54.3
53.8
59.7
64.7
57.4
57.6
58.9
56.0
59.0
61.5
60.6
66.6
58.1
58.7
56.1
60.4
56.0
59.2
59.4
60.0
59.1
61.0
57.3
61.0
55.7
54.0
59.9
59.6
60.8
60.1
60.9
61.4
59.8
60.7
59.7
64.5
59.5
65.9
59.4
-
57.2
67.7
61.2
61.3
57.0
71.5
63.1
63.2
51.5
62.0
59.3
58.7
50.0
69.5
59.6
59.5
61.3
61.7
62.1
62.1
63.3
64.3
58.8
59.3
58.9
59.8
61.2
61.4
40
20
-20
Argentina
Latin America
-40
2000
2005
2010
2015
29 | Exports | evolution of fcst

90
2015
2016
80
70
60
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
30 | Imports | variation in %
100
50
-50
Argentina
Latin America
-100
2000
2005
2010
2015
31 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

80
70
Notes and sources
60
28 Exports, annual variation in %.
29 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
30 Imports, annual variation in %.
31 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
50
2015
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 32
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt
ABECEB
Banco de Galicia
BBVA Banco Francs
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
C&T Asesores
Deutsche Bank
Econometrica
EIU
Elypsis
Empiria Consultores
Espert & Asociados
FIEL
Fundacin Capital
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCG
Nomura
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
UIA - CEU
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
32 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
Int. Reserves
USD bn
2015
2016
24.1
27.9
24.0
38.0
24.8
35.0
18.0
28.0
25.0
31.0
25.0
26.0
25.2
29.9
24.5
34.8
25.3
33.3
26.0
32.0
27.6
28.9
24.7
27.0
31.1
29.0
26.0
35.0
24.4
25.5
27.0
26.8
28.3
22.4
24.9
27.4
34.5
25.7
31.7
25.5
30.0
25.2
34.3
31.8
35.7
26.7
34.7
26.0
-
External Debt
USD bn
2015
2016
155
166
189
150
155
148
153
150
158
141
162
172
183
168
192
146
167
165
176
155
188
-
18.0
31.8
25.4
25.6
24.9
38.0
31.4
31.4
141
172
155
156
153
192
172
172
26.1
26.4
26.1
30.1
29.6
29.8
156
157
154
171
172
167
18
12
6
Argentina
Latin America
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
33 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst

35
2015
2016
30
25
20
15
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
34 | External Debt | % of GDP

200
Argentina
Latin America
150
100
50
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
35 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

180
160
Notes and sources

32 International reserves, months of imports.
33 International reserves, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
34 External debt as % of GDP.
35 External debt, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
140
2015
120
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
2016
Oct
| 33
FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
December 2015
Fact Sheet
General Data
Argentina in the Region
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Argentine Republic
Buenos Aires (13.0 m)
Crdoba (1.5 m)
Rosario (1.2 m)
2,780,400
42.0
15.1
1.0
77.5
2.1
Spanish
Metric system
GMT-3
Area (km2):
Population (million, 2014 est.):
Population density (per km2, 2014):
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.):
Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2011):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Economic Infrastructure
Telecommunication (2013)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants):
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.):
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants):
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants):
Population | %-share in Latin America
Argentina
7.0%
Argentina
9.0%
Other
18.1%
Other
26.5%
Colombia
7.9%
23.3
159
59.9
13.9
3,115
3,665
128
117
723
737
196
Mexico
21.6%
Mexico
19.8%
GDP by Sector | share in %

100
2005-07
2008-10
2011-13
Mauricio Macri*
22 November 2015
2019
Alejandro Vanoli
100
Manufacturing
60
40
Other Industry
20
Services
Unorthodox economic policy

Vulnerability to external shocks
Limited access to international
financial markets
Net Exports
Investment
60
40
Government
Consumption
20
Private
Consumption
Primary markets | share in %
MENA
9.3%
Chile
5.1%
U.S.A.
5.2%

EU-27
13.0%

Other Asia
ex-Japan
10.6%
Exports
Other
LatAm
15.1%
Outlook
Positive
NM
-
Well educated labor force

Rich in natural resources
Competitive exchange rate

Other EU27
13.1%
Imports
China
7.4%
Other
LatAm
12.1%
Germany
5.3%

Other Asia
ex-Japan
6.0%
China
15.4%
Primary products | share in %
Other
7.6%
Food
53.0%
Exports
Mineral
Fuels
6.8%
U.S.A.
11.0%
Other
11.1%
Brazil
26.1%
2011-13
Trade Structure
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Weaknesses
2008-10
Brazil
21.3%
Strengths
2005-07
80
*To take office on 10 December.
Rating
Caa1
SD
RD
GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Agriculture
Other
13.0%
Political Data
Agency
Moodys:
S&P:
Fitch Ratings:
Brazil
39.2%
Economic Structure
1,138
39,966
231,374
11,000
Buenos Aires, Baha Blanca
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank President:
Colombia
6.3%
Peru
5.2%
Transportation (2013)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Venezuela
5.8%
Brazil
33.6%
80
Energy (2012)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h):
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h):
Oil Supply (thousand bpd):
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd):
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons):
GDP | %-share in Latin America
Manufact.
Products
32.6%
Mineral
Fuels
11.2%
Other
7.2%
Imports
Manufact.
Products
81.6%
| 34
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015
Brazil
Brazil
Brazils economy recorded the largest annual contraction on record in Q3,

GDP (USD bn):
GDP growth (%):
Inflation (%):
2011-13
199
2,471
12,407
2.9
-2.6
33.6
6.1
-3.0
12.4
2014-16
204
1,908
9,343
-1.6
-7.9
36.3
7.6
-3.7
19.3
2017-19
209
1,705
8,151
1.4
-5.2
43.6
5.4
-2.3
25.3
undershooting analysts already dismal expectations for Latin Americas

largest economy. Low commodity prices, high inflation, depressed
confidence levels and political crisis have combined to push the economy
into a deep recession with no end in sight. Data for the beginning of the
fourth quarter remains abysmal: business confidence deteriorated and the
manufacturing PMI fell to an almost-seven-year low in November. On the
political front, things went from bad to worse for President Dilma Rousseffs
government this month. On 2 December, political tensions, which have
stalled economic reforms in Congress, came to a head when Speaker
of the Chamber of Deputies, Eduardo Cunha, initiated the process of
impeachment against the President. While at this stage impeachment
seems unlikely, the process could take months and will likely push muchneed economic reforms to the backburner in the meantime.
Brazils outlook is grim. The economy is unlikely to rebound without vital

reforms and panelists are doubtful that change will happen in the nearterm. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 3.2%
in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees the economy remaining in a deep
recession and falling 1.8%, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last
months forecast.
Inflation climbed from Septembers 9.5% to 9.9% in October, which marked

an almost 12-year high. Despite a number of hikes in the SELIC rate earlier
this year and the economy being stuck in recession, inflationary pressures
remain elevated. At its 25 November meeting, the Central Bank decided to
hold the SELIC interest rate at a nine-year high of 14.25%. Panelists see
inflation ending 2015 at 10.2% and 2016 at 6.3%.
REAL SECTOR | Economy faces perfect storm, records largest
contraction on record in Q3
Angela Bouzanis
Economist
3.0
6.0
1.5
3.0
0.0
0.0
-1.5
-3.0
Quarter-on-quarter s.a. (left scale)
Year-on-year (right scale)
-3.0
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
-6.0
Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-onyear variation %.

Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
Brazils economy continued to worsen in the third quarter of the year as Latin
Americas largest economy faces a perfect storm of high inflation, depressed
confidence levels, low prices for export goods and political crisis. GDP tumbled
4.5% in Q3 over the same quarter of last year, which marked the largest
contraction since the modern series began in 1996. The result was worse than
market analysts already pessimistic expectations of a deterioration to a 4.0%
decline. In addition, the Statistical Institute revised downward the GDP results
from the first half of the year, lowering Q1s previously-reported 1.6% fall to a
2.0% decline and Q2s previously-stated 2.6% drop to a 3.0% contraction. On
top of this, Brazils deterioration was broad-based, with every component of
GDP deteriorating in the third quarter.
Q3s downturn is highlighted by a large drop in private consumption, which
contracted 4.5%the worst result on record. Consumer confidence has fallen
to record lows and households have seen their spending power eroded by
high inflation and a weak real. Moreover, the unemployment rate has risen
| 35
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015
to levels not seen since the financial crisis and high interest rates along with
the governments austerity measures have muted borrowing and weighed on
households income. Fixed investment also plunged at a record rate, falling
a substantial 15.0% in Q3 (Q2: -12.9% year-on-year) amid low commodity
prices and the grim economic outlook. In addition, government consumption
deteriorated from Q2s 0.3% fall to a 0.4% drop in Q3. President Dilma Rousseff
has been trying to drastically cut government spending and comply with the
countrys budget laws as collapsing tax revenues squeeze the governments
purse. However, a number of fiscal consolidation measures have been stalled
in Congress, where Rousseff is facing elevated opposition.
On the external side of the economy, growth in exports of goods and services
slowed from 7.7% in Q2 to 1.1% in Q3. Despite a large depreciation in the
real, low prices for commodities and slumping global demand are limiting
export performance. Meanwhile, imports deteriorated to the lowest level on
record, contracting 20.0% (Q2: -11.5% yoy). The depreciated value of the real
has pushed already-subdued demand down even further.
On a quarterly basis, the economy contracted 1.7%, which was a slight
improvement from the 2.1% tallied in the previous quarter.
The dismal GDP reading underscores the number of challenges facing
Brazils government. President Dilma Rousseffs approval ratings have fallen
in tandem with the economy and led to increased political gridlock, stalling
efforts to correct the countrys sinking finances. On 2 December, Congress
initiated impeachment proceedings, thus increasing political uncertainty.
While the impeachment process can take months and the situation is fluid,
in the short term, fiscal consolidation measures and economic reforms will
likely take a backseat to the impeachment proceedings. Commenting on this
development, Joao Pedro Ribeiro, Latin America strategist at Nomura adds:
Purchasing Managers Index
If President Rousseff is indeed impeached, Vice President Michel Temer

would take over. Temer is from the centrist PMDB party and is generally known
for having a market-friendly agenda. He famously backed a PMDB-based
list of policy intentions in recent months, which was interpreted by analysts
as guidance to markets of what his policy stance would be in the event of
his presidency containing a market-friendly mix of economic measures.
Additionally, we believe it reasonable to assume that Temer could have better
conditions in which to govern as the PMDB and other centrist parties would be
more likely to support a new administration.
52
50
48
46
44
42
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
Note: Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). A reading

above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50
points to a contraction.
Source: Markit.
The Central Bank expects GDP to fall 2.7% in 2015. FocusEconomics

panelists expect the economy to contract 3.2% in 2015, which is down 0.3
percentage points from last months estimate. For 2016, the panel sees GDP
falling 1.8%, which is down 0.7 percentage points from the previous months
forecast.
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI falls to almost 7-year low
The Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell from
Octobers 44.1 to 43.8 in November, which marked the worst result in 80
months. As a result, the PMI remains far below the 50-threshold that separates
contraction from expansion in business conditions in the manufacturing sector.
Brazils economy has been plagued with a slew of bad economic data that
suggest the economys deep recession shows no signs of abating.
| 36
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015
According to Markit, Novembers downturn came on the back of significant

drops in both new orders and production. Shrinking demand and a grim
economic situation across the country fueled a drop in new orders from Brazil,
which was combined with a slight fall in foreign orders. As a result, output fell
and companies purchased fewer inputs than in the previous month. Moreover,
the shaky economic situation caused firms to shed jobs at the fasted pace in
79-months . In addition, the weak value of the real along with tax increases
caused cost inflation to rise to a 7-month high in November. Markit analysts
added that, the outlook for the sector looks bleak. Falling employment
combined with rising tax rates, soaring borrowing costs and a subsequent
drop in income look set to deepen the countrys downturn. Even the weaker
currency is failing to lift foreign orders. Higher cost burdens are proving to
have a greater detrimental impact on firms, which struggle to compete at the
global level in an already-subdued demand environment.
Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in %
2.0
4.0
Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)
Annual average (right scale)
1.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-2.0
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
-4.0
Sep-15
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de

Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity declines for fourth consecutive

month in September
In September, economic activity fell 0.5% over the previous month in
seasonally-adjusted terms, according to the Central Banks monthly indicator
for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco
Central). The figure was a less-pronounced decline than Augusts 0.8% fall
and beat market analysts expectations of a 0.6% drop. However, the print
marked the fourth consecutive month of decline as the economy remains
stuck in recession.
On an annual basis, economic activity plummeted 6.2%, which was a stark
deterioration from Augusts revised 4.6% drop (previously reported: -4.5%
year-on-year). Meanwhile, annual average growth edged down further from
Augusts minus 2.2% to minus 2.8%, which marked the worst result since
October 2009.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production improves in October

2.0

1.0
6.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
%
%
-1.0
-3.0
-2.0
-6.0
-3.0
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
-9.0
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and

annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
In October, industrial production contracted 0.7% over the previous month

on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which was a less pronounced contraction
than the revised 1.5% decrease (previously reported: -1.3% month-on-month)
seen in September. However, the result was worse than market analysts
expectations of a 0.2% fall. The figure was driven by a smaller fall in the
production of intermediate goods and consumer goods, while capital goods
swung to contraction in October.
In annual terms, industrial production plummeted 11.3% in October, which
was a deterioration from Septembers revised 10.9% fall (previously reported:
-10.8% year-on-year) and marked the worst reading in over six years. A
decrease in output was recorded in 24 of the 26 categories that the Brazilian
Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) surveyed. The biggest negative
impact was recorded in the production of motor vehicles and trailers.
The trend continued to point downward in October, with annual average
growth in industrial production falling from Septembers minus 6.4% to minus
7.1%. Annual average growth has followed a broad downward trend since
March 2014.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see industrial
production contracting 7.4% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points
from last months estimate. In 2016, industrial output is expected to fall 2.4%,
which is down 1.2 percentage points from last months forecast.
| 37
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
Retail Sales | variation in %

2.0
6.0
0.0
3.0
-2.0
0.0
December 2015
REAL SECTOR | Retail sales fall again, but at weakest rate in eight
months
Retail sales continued to contract in September, recording an eighth
consecutive drop. Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) fell 0.5% over
the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was a more moderate
decrease than the 0.9% fall tallied in August. Septembers improvement
over Augusts more pronounced contraction came on the back of a better
performance in five of eight components of the index. However, the figure
still suggests that private consumption remains subdued amid a backdrop
of technical recession and high inflation in Latin Americas largest economy.

-4.0
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
-3.0
Sep-15
Mar-15
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted retail sales and annual

average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
On an annual basis, retail sales fell 6.2% in September, which was a

moderation over Augusts 6.9% decrease. However, the trend continued to
deteriorate as annual average growth in retail sales fell from Augusts minus
1.5% to minus 2.1% in September.
FocusEconomics panelists expect retail sales to contract 3.7% in 2015, which
is down 0.3 percentage points from last months forecast. For 2016, the panel
sees retail sales falling 1.5%, which is down 0.5 percentage points from the
previous months projection.
Consumer Confidence Index
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence rises from record low
140
In November, the consumer confidence index published by the Getulio Vargas

Foundation (FGV, Fundaao Getulio Vargas) rose a seasonally-adjusted
1.3% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.8% decrease recorded
in October. As a result, the index rose from the record-low 75.7 points tallied
in October to 76.7 points. The improvement was driven by consumers less
pessimistic views regarding the current and future economic situations
compared to the previous month.
120
100
80
60
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
Note: Index of consumer sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point

threshold represents the point above which consumers expect economic
conditions to improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation.
The FGV confidence index spans a range from 1 to 200 points, where 100
points is considered neutral. Despite the monthly rise, consumer confidence
remains deep into pessimistic territory.
Panelists surveyed for this months LatinFocus report see private consumption
contracting 3.3% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last
months estimate. For 2016, the panel sees private consumption falling 2.6%,
which is down 0.9 percentage points from last months forecast.
OUTLOOK | Business confidence deteriorates in November
Business Confidence Index
Business sentiment fell in November, erasing Octobers gains, according to

the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV, Fundaao Getulio Vargas) business
confidence indicator. The index decreased a seasonally-adjusted 1.8% over
the previous month, falling from Octobers 76.2 points to 74.8 points. As a
result, the index remains far below the 100-point threshold and signals that
businesses are more pessimistic than optimistic.
110
100
90
80
70
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
Note: Index of business sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point threshold

represents the point above which businesses expect economic conditions to
improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation.
According to FGV, firms were more pessimistic in November regarding their

expectations for the future economic situation. In contrast, firms expectations
of the current economic situation remained stable.
The FGV introduced a new methodology for tendency surveys in November
2015. Historical data from June 2014 until present have been revised
according to the new methodology.
| 38
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see fixed

investment falling 12.1% in 2015, which is down 0.7 percentage points from
last months forecast. In 2016, participants expect fixed investment to record
a 6.8% contraction, which is down 2.3 percentage points from last months
prediction.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation climbs to highest level in almost 12
years in October
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
11.5
1.6
Month-on-month (left scale)
1.2
10.0
0.8
8.5
%
7.0
0.4
0.0
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Note: Annual and monthly var. of IPCA consumer price index in %.

Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
5.5
Consumer prices in October increased 0.82% over the previous month. The
print was above the 0.54% increase recorded in September and overshot
market expectations of a 0.80% rise. The monthly result was mainly driven by
higher prices for transportationcaused by a large increase in fuel pricesas
well as for food and beverages.
Inflation in October climbed from Septembers 9.5% to 9.9%, which marked
the highest figure since November 2003. As a result, inflation remains far
above the Central Banks tolerance margin of plus/minus 2.0 percentage
points around 4.5%. Inflationary pressures have risen dramatically since the
beginning of the year despite a number of hikes in the Central Banks SELIC
interest rate and the economy being in recession.
The Central Bank sees inflation at 9.5% at the end of 2015. For 2016, the Bank
expects inflation to close the year at 5.4%. FocusEconomics participants see
inflation closing 2015 at 10.2%, which is up 0.5 percentage points from last
months forecast. For 2016, the panel expects inflation to moderate to 6.3%,
which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous months estimate.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank leaves SELIC unchanged for third
consecutive meeting
Monetary Policy Rate | in %

15.0
12.0
%
9.0
6.0
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
Note: SELIC target rate (Taxa SELIC meta) in %.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil).
At its 25 November meeting, the Central Banks Monetary Policy Committee

(COPOM, Comite de Politica Monetaria) decided to leave the benchmark
SELIC interest rate unchanged at 14.25%. The move was in line with market
expectations and marked the third meeting at which the Bank has held interest
rates after seven consecutive rate hikes. As a result, the SELIC interest rate
remains at a nine-year high.
In the brief accompanying statement, the Central Bank outlined that the move
is consistent with its assessment of the current macroeconomic situation and
inflation outlook. However, unlike the last meeting, the decision to hold the
SELIC interest rate stable was not unanimous. Six members of the committee
voted to keep the SELIC interest rate unchanged, while two members voted
to raise the rate by 50 basis points.
Moreover, the Banks decision comes against a worsening inflation outlook
in Latin Americas largest economy. Despite the number of rate hikes and the
economy being stuck in recession, inflationary pressures remain elevated and
inflation rose to an almost 12-year high in October.
Participants in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see the SELIC rate ending
2015 at an average of 14.25%. Panelists see the SELIC rate ending 2016 at
an average of 13.38%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account deficit improves in October
In October, the current account balance registered a deficit of USD 4.2 billion,
which was a notable improvement from the USD 9.3 billion deficit recorded
in the same month last year. The slimmer current account deficit has been
| 39
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
Current Account Balance | USD billion

0.0
-40
-4.0
-60
-8.0
-80
-12.0
-100
Monthly current account balance (left scale)
-16.0
12-month current account balance (right scale)

Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in USD billion.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and FocusEconomics calculations.
-120
December 2015
a bright spot in recent economic data for Brazil as the country grapples with
recession and high inflation levels. However, the gap was still wider than
market analysts expectations of a USD 3.7 billion deficit.
The trade balance registered a surplus of USD 2.0 billion in October, which
was below Septembers 2.9 billion surplus but notably contrasted the USD 1.2
billion deficit recorded in October 2014. Brazil tallied a trade deficit in 2014
for the first time in 14 years on the back of a sharp decline in the value of key
exports.
The moving 12-month current account deficit recorded USD 74.2 billion in
October, which was an improvement over Septembers USD 79.3 billion deficit
and marked the best result since June 2013. Octobers figure is equivalent to
approximately 4.0% of GDP.
FocusEconomics participants expect a current account deficit of 3.8% of GDP
in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees the deficit moderating to 2.9% of GDP.
| 40
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015

Annual Data
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (BRL bn)
Industrial Production (annual var. in %)
Retail Sales (annual var. in %)
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop)
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop)
Inflation (Core, annual var. in %, eop)
SELIC Rate (%, eop)
Stock Market (Bovespa variation in %)
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop)
External Sector
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Exports (annual var. in %)
Imports (annual var. in %)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
195
11,306
2,210
3,886
16.6
7.5
9.4
6.2
17.9
10.2
10.9
6.7
-2.4
38.5
197
13,240
2,614
4,374
12.6
3.9
4.7
4.7
6.7
0.4
6.7
6.0
-2.5
35.1
199
12,104
2,412
4,806
9.9
1.9
2.1
3.5
0.8
-2.3
8.4
5.5
-2.3
33.6
201
11,878
2,388
5,316
10.6
3.0
3.8
3.5
5.8
2.1
4.3
5.4
-3.1
32.2
203
11,567
2,345
5,687
7.0
0.1
-0.9
1.3
-4.5
-3.1
2.2
4.8
-6.2
34.7
204
8,769
1,793
6,013
5.7
-3.2
-4.9
-3.3
-12.1
-7.4
-3.7
7.0
-9.5
34.7
206
7,694
1,586
6,366
5.9
-1.8
-3.2
-2.6
-6.8
-2.4
-1.5
9.1
-7.8
39.4
208
7,824
1,625
6,756
6.1
0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-1.0
0.4
0.4
8.7
-6.5
42.2
209
8,115
1,698
7,214
6.8
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.4
2.0
1.8
8.1
-5.2
43.6
211
8,512
1,793
7,759
7.6
2.7
3.5
3.1
5.9
3.5
3.1
7.6
-3.9
45.1
16.7
5.9
5.0
5.6
10.75
1.0
1.66
1.76
18.7
6.5
6.6
6.7
11.00
-18.1
1.86
1.67
9.1
5.8
5.4
5.6
7.25
7.4
2.05
1.95
10.9
5.9
6.2
6.1
10.00
-15.5
2.36
2.16
9.9
6.4
6.3
6.3
11.75
-2.9
2.66
2.35
10.2
8.9
14.25
3.92
3.35
6.3
7.7
13.38
4.11
4.01
5.6
5.9
12.13
4.21
4.16
5.1
5.3
11.22
4.29
4.25
4.6
4.9
10.31
4.37
4.33
-3.4
-75.8
20.1
202
182
32.0
42.3
88.5
289
19.1
257
11.6
-2.9
-77.0
29.8
256
226
26.8
24.5
101.2
352
18.7
298
11.4
-3.1
-74.1
19.4
243
223
-5.3
-1.4
86.6
373
20.1
313
13.0
-3.1
-74.8
2.3
242
240
-0.2
7.4
69.2
359
18.0
309
12.9
-4.4
-104.1
-4.0
225
229
-7.0
-4.4
96.9
364
19.0
353
15.0
-3.8
-67.3
13.4
193
180
-14.1
-21.4
369
24.6
354
19.7
-2.9
-45.7
28.1
201
173
3.9
-4.0
362
25.2
367
23.1
-2.5
-41.1
36.2
209
172
3.8
-0.2
372
25.9
393
24.2
-2.3
-39.1
41.4
216
175
3.7
1.4
389
26.7
431
25.4
-2.1
-37.2
43.8
224
180
3.6
3.0
405
27.0
470
26.2
Quarterly Data
SELIC Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop)
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Q3 14
-1.1
-0.1
-2.5
0.1
-7.7
-3.4
4.9
6.7
11.00
2.45
2.27
-4.1
-24.7
1.8
63.1
61.3
Q4 14
-0.7
0.1
-2.0
1.7
-6.9
-4.0
4.6
6.4
11.75
2.66
2.55
-5.1
-30.0
-3.3
51.5
54.8
Q1 15
-2.0
-0.8
-4.4
-1.5
-10.1
-5.8
5.8
8.1
12.75
3.20
2.87
-5.8
-25.1
-5.6
42.8
48.3
Q2 15
-3.0
-2.1
-5.8
-3.0
-12.9
-6.5
6.7
8.9
13.75
3.10
3.07
-3.0
-12.8
7.8
51.6
43.8
Q3 15
-4.5
-1.7
-7.1
-4.5
-15.0
-9.6
7.6
9.5
14.25
3.95
3.54
-2.6
-11.4
8.0
50.2
42.1
Q4 15
-4.1
-0.8
-3.5
-4.8
-13.0
-7.8
7.6
10.2
14.25
3.92
3.94
-3.0
-11.8
2.6
47.2
44.5
Q1 16
-3.9
-0.5
-4.7
-4.4
-12.6
-4.2
8.6
8.2
14.31
4.07
3.99
-2.8
-10.7
5.0
47.9
42.9
Q2 16
-2.2
-0.5
-3.3
-2.6
-6.9
-3.4
9.0
7.3
14.20
4.10
4.08
-2.9
-11.0
6.7
50.1
43.4
Q3 16
-1.4
-0.2
-2.7
-1.8
-5.3
-1.7
9.4
7.0
13.76
4.11
4.11
-3.1
-11.8
6.8
51.9
45.1
Q4 16
-0.8
0.3
-2.0
-1.1
-2.2
0.5
9.7
6.3
13.38
4.11
4.11
-1.7
-6.9
7.5
53.0
45.5
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, annual var. in %)
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, mom var. in %)
Industrial Production (ann. var. in %)
Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %)
Markit Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold)
Retail Sales (s.a. mom var. in %)
Consumer Confidence Index (100 pt, s.a.)
Business Confidence Index (100 pt, s.a.)
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %)
Feb-15
-4.1
0.6
-9.3
-1.4
49.6
-3.3
-0.7
5.9
85.4
85.0
1.22
7.7
2.84
-7.2
Mar-15
0.7
-1.4
-3.2
-0.9
46.2
0.3
-1.1
6.2
82.9
79.7
1.32
8.1
3.20
-5.8
Apr-15
-3.3
-1.0
-7.7
-1.4
46.0
-3.3
-0.6
6.4
85.6
78.0
0.71
8.2
3.01
-6.9
May-15
-4.5
0.0
-8.8
0.4
45.9
-4.5
-1.0
6.7
85.1
77.0
0.74
8.5
3.18
-3.4
Jun-15
-1.4
-0.9
-2.8
-1.1
46.5
-2.7
-0.6
6.9
83.9
73.6
0.79
8.9
3.10
-2.6
Jul-15
-4.5
-0.1
-9.0
-1.6
47.2
-3.9
-1.5
7.5
82.0
74.8
0.62
9.6
3.42
-5.7
Aug-15
-4.6
-0.8
-8.8
-1.0
45.8
-6.9
-0.9
7.6
80.6
72.8
0.22
9.5
3.62
-2.6
Sep-15
-6.2
-0.5
-10.9
-1.5
47.0
-6.2
-0.5
7.6
76.3
73.1
0.54
9.5
3.95
-3.1
Oct-15
-11.3
-0.7
44.1
7.9
75.7
76.2
0.82
9.9
3.86
-4.2
Nov-15
43.8
76.7
74.8
3.87
-
| 41
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %
2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %.
3
4
0
0
-3
Brazil
Brazil
Latin America
World
Latin America
-4
2000
World
2005
2010
-6
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
-2
-4
-2
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
-4
Oct
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< -4.2
-3.5
-2.8
-2.1
-1.4
-0.7
0.0
0.7
Banco Bradesco
Banco Fator
Banco Safra
Banco Votorantim
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Brasil
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Bradesco - Asset Mgmt
Capital Economics
Datalynk
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Haitong
HSBC
ING
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCA Consultores
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Pezco Microanalysis
Santander
Standard Chartered
Tendncias Consultoria Integrada
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Central Bank (Sep. 2015)
IMF (Oct. 2015)
OECD (Nov. 2015)
2015
-3.0
-3.7
-3.4
-3.1
-3.0
-3.2
-2.5
-2.7
-3.3
-2.5
-2.5
-3.2
-2.6
-3.7
-3.0
-3.3
-3.4
-3.6
-3.7
-2.9
-3.2
-3.2
-3.8
-3.6
-3.3
-2.8
-3.1
-3.7
-2.8
-2.9
-3.2
-3.0
2016
-2.0
-3.5
-2.4
-2.3
-1.1
-1.7
-0.5
-0.8
-3.5
-0.7
0.0
-2.2
-1.0
-2.4
-1.5
-1.8
-2.4
-2.3
-3.0
-2.3
-2.3
-2.5
-3.7
-1.2
-1.7
-1.0
-2.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.8
-2.0
-2.0
-3.8
-2.5
-3.2
-3.2
-3.7
0.0
-2.0
-1.8
-2.9
-2.7
-2.4
-1.1
-0.8
-0.3
-2.7
-3.0
-3.1
-1.0
-1.2
> 0.7
Notes and sources

General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are
from the Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e
Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, real annual variation in %.
| 42
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015

Banco Bradesco
Banco Fator
Banco Safra
Banco Votorantim
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Datalynk
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Haitong
HSBC
ING
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCA Consultores
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Pezco Microanalysis
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Consumption
variation in %
2015
2016
-3.5
-2.0
-4.3
-3.0
-3.2
-4.5
-4.1
-3.5
-2.5
-0.9
-4.0
-3.3
-3.0
-1.4
-3.0
-4.1
-2.0
-0.5
-4.1
-4.4
-2.6
-1.0
-3.9
-3.0
-2.8
-1.7
-2.9
-2.0
-2.8
-4.3
-3.7
-2.5
-2.8
-2.5
-4.5
-4.7
-2.8
-2.0
-2.5
-0.8
-3.5
-1.8
-2.8
-2.1
-3.7
-3.2
Investment
variation in %
2015
2016
-11.0
-6.0
-14.5
-14.7
-12.5
-7.0
-13.5
-6.1
-13.0
-4.6
-11.0
-2.0
-11.6
-4.2
-6.0
-2.0
-9.4
-7.6
-10.0
1.5
-16.8
-12.5
-11.0
-5.0
-13.3
-9.5
-12.0
-6.5
-13.5
-10.6
-11.4
-10.0
-14.0
-8.0
-15.5
-10.0
-10.7
-3.9
-9.3
-2.1
-12.0
-5.8
-14.7
-9.0
-12.4
-11.8
-4.5
-2.0
-3.0
-3.3
-4.7
-0.5
-2.5
-2.6
-16.8
-6.0
-12.0
-12.1
-14.7
1.5
-6.5
-6.8
-2.9
-2.7
-2.2
-1.7
-1.2
-0.6
-11.4
-11.0
-9.5
-4.5
-3.2
-1.2
0
Brazil
Latin America
-4
2000
2005
2010
2015

4
2015
2016
-2
-4
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
20
10
-10
Brazil
Latin America
-20
2000
2005
2010
2015

4
-4
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Brazil Institute
of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
-8
-12
2015
-16
Jul
Oct
Jan
2016
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 43
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015

15
Brazil
Latin America
10
-5
-10
2000
2005
2010
2015

3
-3
-6
2015
-9
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

16
Brazil
Latin America
12
Banco Bradesco
Banco Fator
Banco Safra
Banco Votorantim
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Datalynk
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Haitong
HSBC
ING
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCA Consultores
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Pezco Microanalysis
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Industry
variation in %
2015
2016
-7.5
-1.5
-8.5
-3.4
-8.2
-6.0
-7.5
-3.0
-7.0
-2.5
-7.7
-3.6
-6.7
1.0
-8.0
-1.0
-5.0
1.0
-6.5
-2.0
-8.0
-5.5
-7.7
-4.0
-7.5
-4.0
-7.0
-1.5
-7.7
-2.8
-7.8
-3.5
-8.3
1.3
-6.8
-0.9
-8.0
-3.0
-
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2015
2016
6.9
9.6
6.9
10.5
7.0
9.9
7.0
8.5
7.1
10.2
6.9
9.1
5.7
6.0
6.9
9.6
6.8
9.5
7.5
8.5
7.0
8.8
7.0
8.0
7.0
9.3
6.4
7.6
8.0
9.0
8.0
8.2
6.9
10.8
6.8
8.5
7.0
9.0
6.9
8.9
6.9
9.0
6.8
10.9
6.7
8.0
6.9
9.5
7.0
10.0
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2015
2016
-10.0
-7.9
-7.8
-10.1
-11.1
-6.3
-9.1
-8.1
-9.7
-8.6
-9.1
-7.7
-8.0
-6.5
-10.0
-8.8
-9.0
-6.5
-10.9
-11.6
-9.5
-7.6
-9.5
-7.5
-9.4
-8.3
-9.5
-7.5
-10.4
-7.3
-9.6
-7.6
-9.7
-8.9
-8.9
-6.6
-9.4
-6.6
-10.5
-7.8
-9.8
-7.7
-9.2
-6.8
-8.5
-5.0
-7.7
-7.4
-6.0
1.3
-2.8
-2.4
5.7
8.0
6.9
7.0
6.0
10.9
9.0
9.1
-11.1
-7.8
-9.5
-9.5
-11.6
-6.3
-7.6
-7.8
-6.9
-6.5
-5.9
-1.2
-0.4
0.3
6.9
6.9
6.9
8.6
8.5
8.2
-8.5
-8.2
-7.3
-7.4
-7.1
-6.3
4
2000
2005
2010
2015

0
-2
-4
Notes and sources
-6
-8
Brazil
Latin America
-10
2000
2005
2010
2015
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Brazil Institute of
Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica) and the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do
Brasil). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: IBGE.
12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: IBGE.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCB.
| 44
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %
20
20
Brazil
15
16
10
12
2005
2010
4
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

8
12
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum
10
Jul
Oct
Jan
Minimum
Brazil
Latin America
Latin America
0
2000
15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< 4.2
4.8
5.4
6.0
6.6
7.2
7.8
8.4
Banco Bradesco
Banco Fator
Banco Safra
Banco Votorantim
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Datalynk
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Haitong
HSBC
ING
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCA Consultores
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Pezco Microanalysis
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
OECD (Nov. 2015)
2015
10.4
10.9
10.4
10.7
10.3
10.0
10.0
9.9
9.9
10.3
9.5
10.5
10.1
9.4
10.4
10.2
10.3
9.9
10.2
10.4
10.3
11.2
9.7
9.6
10.3
9.5
10.5
10.3
9.9
2016
6.4
6.8
6.8
6.5
5.7
6.4
5.5
6.4
5.3
6.8
6.0
6.9
4.8
6.8
7.1
6.5
6.0
6.5
6.6
7.0
6.5
6.2
6.0
6.6
5.4
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.4
9.4
11.2
10.3
10.2
4.8
7.1
6.5
6.3
9.7
9.5
9.2
6.1
5.9
5.5
9.5
9.3
8.8
5.4
5.5
5.8
> 8.4
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data
are from Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e
Estatistica). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
| 45
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %
20 | Interest Rate | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %

16
30
Brazil
Brazil
Latin America
Latin America
14
20
12
10
10
0
2000
2005
2010
6
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
21 | Int. Rate 2015 | evolution of fcst

20
16
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
14
15
12
10
Maximum
Consensus
10
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
23 | Interest Rate 2016 | Panelist Distribution

50%
40%
30%
20%
Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Banco Bradesco
Banco Fator
Banco Safra
Banco Votorantim
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Datalynk
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Haitong
HSBC
ING
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCA Consultores
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Pezco Microanalysis
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
2016
13.00
14.25
14.75
13.00
13.25
13.00
11.50
13.50
12.75
13.75
13.25
14.25
12.50
14.25
14.50
13.25
14.25
13.25
13.25
14.25
12.50
13.00
13.50
13.75
11.50
14.25
13.00
13.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
14.25
11.50
14.75
13.25
13.38
14.25
14.26
14.28
12.96
12.80
12.47
10%
0%
< 10.50
11.25
12.00
12.75
13.50
14.25
15.00
15.75
> 15.75
Notes and sources

are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
19 Interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
20 Quarterly interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
21 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
23 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2016 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
| 46
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015

24 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
25 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD

4.3
3.8
3.3
3
2.8
2
2.3
1
2000
2005
2010
1.8
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
26 | BRL per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

5
27 | BRL per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

5
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Minimum
Jul
Maximum
Consensus
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
28 | BRL per USD 2016 | Panelist Distribution

50%
40%
30%
20%
Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
Banco Bradesco
Banco Fator
Banco Safra
Banco Votorantim
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Datalynk
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Haitong
HSBC
ING
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCA Consultores
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Pezco Microanalysis
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
3.70
3.90
4.00
3.80
4.00
4.20
4.06
3.80
4.10
3.60
3.75
4.01
3.90
3.90
3.59
3.96
4.00
3.90
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.10
3.95
4.00
4.12
3.50
3.70
4.00
3.95
4.20
2016
3.80
4.30
4.20
4.00
4.20
4.50
4.00
3.65
4.50
3.80
3.60
4.14
4.10
4.20
3.93
4.43
4.30
4.20
4.20
4.10
4.50
4.35
4.00
4.20
4.70
3.68
3.60
3.50
4.20
4.30
3.50
4.20
3.98
3.92
3.50
4.70
4.20
4.11
3.96
3.87
3.62
4.06
4.00
3.76
10%
0%
< 3.10
3.40
3.70
4.00
4.30
4.60
4.90
5.20
> 5.20
Notes and sources

24 Exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).
25 Quarterly exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).
| 47
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015

Banco Bradesco
Banco Fator
Banco Safra
Banco Votorantim
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Datalynk
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Haitong
HSBC
ING
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCA Consultores
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Pezco Microanalysis
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Current Account
% of GDP
2015
2016
-3.2
-0.9
-3.6
-2.6
-3.7
-2.2
-3.6
-2.2
-3.8
-3.7
-3.8
-3.3
-3.8
-2.6
-4.9
-4.7
-3.6
-2.1
-3.6
-2.7
-4.3
-4.0
-3.9
-3.5
-3.3
-3.1
-3.5
-1.8
-4.0
-3.2
-3.9
-3.4
-3.8
-2.8
-3.7
-3.1
-3.5
-3.4
-3.9
-2.3
-3.9
-2.4
-3.4
-2.1
-3.8
-2.6
-3.5
-3.0
-4.3
-3.7
-3.9
-3.4
-3.8
-3.2
-3.4
-2.6
Trade Balance
USD bn
2015
2016
16.9
46.9
14.7
30.0
13.5
40.0
15.3
32.9
14.0
25.0
12.8
26.3
15.0
29.0
0.1
4.2
15.5
37.9
15.1
28.5
10.6
13.0
15.0
40.0
14.0
24.0
2.7
9.8
15.5
25.0
18.1
20.2
13.0
39.0
11.9
30.8
10.2
21.6
12.5
35.9
10.8
20.0
19.3
26.6
14.5
31.4
20.6
37.0
-4.9
-3.2
-3.8
-3.8
-4.7
-0.9
-2.9
-2.9
0.1
20.6
14.2
13.4
4.2
46.9
28.8
28.1
-3.8
-3.9
-4.0
-3.0
-3.4
-3.6
12.4
10.3
7.1
23.9
20.8
15.5
-2
-4
Brazil
Latin America
-6
2000
2005
2010
2015

-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
-4.0
2015
-4.5
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

300
200
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
100
-100
2000
2005
2010
2015

30
2015
2016
20
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central
Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil) and the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio
do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
29 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BCB.
31 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: MDIC.
10
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 48
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015

Exports and Imports
Banco Bradesco
Banco Fator
Banco Safra
Banco Votorantim
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Datalynk
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Haitong
HSBC
ING
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCA Consultores
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Pezco Microanalysis
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Exports
USD bn
2015
2016
191
198
185
203
193
205
190
197
195
245
193
203
210
222
202
196
192
195
195
203
192
205
192
210
190
197
214
244
191
190
191
192
192
198
189
180
201
207
184
176
186
174
191
199
192
197
191
186
Imports
USD bn
2015
2016
174
151
170
173
179
165
175
165
181
220
180
176
195
193
202
192
177
157
180
175
182
192
177
170
176
173
211
234
175
165
173
172
179
159
177
150
191
185
172
140
175
154
172
172
177
166
171
149
184
214
192
193
174
245
198
201
170
211
177
180
140
234
171
173
193
195
198
202
204
209
181
184
191
178
183
193
50
Brazil
Latin America
25
-25
2000
2005
2010
2015

290
260
230
200
2015
170
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
60
40
20
-20
Brazil
-40
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

270
240
210
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Ministry
of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
180
2015
150
Jul
Oct
Jan
2016
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 49
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015

Banco Bradesco
Banco Fator
Banco Safra
Banco Votorantim
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Datalynk
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
Haitong
HSBC
ING
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
LCA Consultores
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Pezco Microanalysis
Santander
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Int. Reserves
USD bn
2015
2016
380
387
374
374
367
370
375
375
391
369
369
340
310
370
365
371
371
365
360
374
374
359
329
365
354
360
360
370
370
375
375
368
360
374
374
370
371
371
372
363
361
365
352
365
336
-
External Debt
USD bn
2015
2016
342
363
351
357
360
370
345
356
353
343
378
409
346
367
-
340
391
370
369
310
387
370
362
342
378
351
354
343
409
363
367
368
369
368
362
362
365
349
342
349
357
348
359
30
Brazil
Latin America
20
10
0
2000
2005
2010
2015

390
2015
2016
380
370
360
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

50
Brazil
Latin America
40
30
20
10
2000
2005
2010
2015

380
2015
2016
360
Notes and sources
340
Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
320
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 50
FOCUSECONOMICS
Brazil
December 2015
Fact Sheet
General Data
Brazil in the Region
Official name:
Federative Republic
of Brazil
Brasilia (2.6m)
Sao Paulo (11.3m)
Rio de Janeiro (6.3m)
8,514,877
203
23.8
0.8
73.3
9.6
Portuguese
Metric system
GMT-2 to GMT-4
Capital:
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2010 est.):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Other
26.5%
Other
18.1%
Brazil
33.6%
Brazil
39.2%
Venezuela
5.8%
Colombia
6.3%
Peru
5.2%
Argentina
7.0%
Argentina
9.0%
Colombia
7.9%
Mexico
19.8%
Mexico
21.6%
Economic Structure
22.3
135
51.6
10.1

100
2005-07
2008-10
2011-13

120
Agriculture
2005-07
2008-10
2011-13
100
Net Exports
80
Energy (2012)
80
9,758
12,095
538
484
2,652
2,864
500
60
60
40
Other Industry
4,093
28,538
1,580,964
50,000
Santos, Salvador, Belem
Services
Exports
Rating
Baa3
BB+
BBB-
Weaknesses
Commitment to economic
orthodoxy
Pronounced socio-economic
inequalities
Large domestic market and

diversified production
Inadequate infrastructure
creates bottleneck for economic
growth
Stable financial system

Strong foreign direct investment Privatization and deregulation
flows bolster capital account
lagging
China
19.0%
Outlook
Stable
Negative
Negative
Strengths
U.S.A.
15.1%
Other
15.5%
Other EU-27
12.6%
U.S.A.
10.3%
MENA
6.3%
Argentina
8.1%
Other
LatAm
13.4%
Agency
Moodys:
S&P:
Fitch Ratings:
Private
Consumption
Trade Structure
Other
14.3%
Dilma Rousseff
26 October 2014
2018
Alexandre Antonio Tombini
Government
Consumption
-20
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
40
20
20
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Investment
Manufacturing
Netherlands
7.2%

Other Asia
ex-Japan
8.8%

MENA
5.1%
Argentina
6.9%
Imports
Other
LatAm
9.8%
Other EU27
14.8%
China
15.6%
Germany
6.3%

Other Asia
ex-Japan
10.8%
Other
5.7%
Mineral
Fuels
18.6%
Food
32.3%
Other
9.0%
Exports
Mineral
Fuels
9.7%
Ores &
Metals
17.1%
Manufact.
Products
35.2%
Imports
Manufact.
Products
72.4%
| 51
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015
Chile
Outlook moderates
Chile
External headwinds are dragging on Chiles economy as prices for

GDP (USD bn):
GDP growth (%):
Inflation (%):
2011-13
17.4
265
15,187
5.2
0.5
12.0
2.7
-2.8
43.5
2014-16
18.0
246
13,639
2.2
-2.4
16.4
4.3
-1.0
60.3
2017-19
18.6
271
14,573
3.3
-1.7
20.5
3.2
-1.6
62.1
copper, the countrys top export, are falling amid an economic slowdown
in China, the biggest consumer of this metal commodity. Recession in
Brazil adds to concerns. Against this backdrop, Chiles external sector
deteriorated in Q3, but annual GDP growth still picked up slightly to 2.2%
on the back of a notable recovery in fixed investment as well as stronger
private and public spending. Chile will likely tally moderate growth in Q4:
while consumers grew more confident in October, business sentiment
deteriorated and copper prices hit an over-six-year low in November.
In November, Congress approved the 2016 budget, which envisages a
moderate slowdown in public spending and a widening of the fiscal deficit,
based on the assumptions of 2.75% GDP growth and an average copper
prices of USD 2.50 per pound. Spending focuses on moving forward with
the education reform and plans to provide free higher education to 200
thousand lower-income students.
Following this years expected modest expansion, growth is set to

accelerate slightly in 2016 as a soft rebound in investment and rising
consumption more than compensate for a continued decline in copper
prices and a poorer performance of the external sector. Nevertheless,
uncertainties regarding the governments reform agenda represent a
downside risk for investment. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
panelists see the economy expanding 2.1% this year. For 2016, panelists
downgraded their GDP growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points and
project a 2.5% expansion.
In November, inflation receded for a third consecutive month and came

in at 3.9% (October: +4.0% annually). Following Octobers rate hike, the
Central Bank kept the policy rate at 3.25% in its 12 November meeting,
but left the door open for future rate hikes to bring inflation down to its
3.0% target. Panelists foresee year-end inflation at 4.5% in 2015 and at
3.5% in 2016.
Teresa Kersting
Economist
REAL SECTOR | Chilean economy accelerates slightly in Q3 as stronger

domestic economy more than compensates for weak external sector
Chiles GDP picked up in Q3 as improving consumption and investment more
than compensated for a deterioration in the external sector. Annual economic
growth accelerated from Q2s 1.9% to 2.2% in Q3, slightly exceeding market
expectations of a 2.1% expansion.
Private consumption rose 1.8% in Q3, coming in above the 1.5% increase
recorded in Q2. In addition, growth in government spending accelerated from
4.0% in Q2 to 5.9% in Q3, marking the fastest expansion in a year and a half.
Fixed investment rebounded from a 3.3% contraction in Q2 and recorded the
largest gain since Q2 2013, increasing an annual 7.1% in Q3.
| 52
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015
On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services advanced
slightly from Q2s notable 5.5% contraction to a softer 0.9% decrease in
Q3. At the same time, imports turned around from Q2s 5.4% fall to a 3.1%
expansion. As imports grew at a faster pace than exports, the external sectors
net contribution to overall economic growth deteriorated from zero percentage
points in Q2 to minus 1.5 percentage points in Q3, the worst reading since Q1
2013.

6.0
4.0
%
2.0
On a quarterly basis, the economy improved from a 0.1% contraction in the

second quarter to a 0.5% increase in the third quarter.
0.0
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.

Source: Chile Central Bank (BCC) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
The Central Bank expects GDP to grow between 2.0% and 2.5% this year
and between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2016. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast see the economy growing 2.1% in 2015, which is
unchanged from last months forecast. For 2016, the panel expects the
economy to pick up the pace and expand 2.5%, which is down 0.1 percentage
points from last months estimate.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity slows in October

6.0
Year-on-year
Annual average
In October, economic activity rose 1.5% over the same month last year,
according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IMACEC). The figure
fell short of the 2.7% increase tallied in September. According to the Central
Bank, Octobers deceleration mainly came on the back of a slowdown in
manufacturing and mining. Conversely, services picked up in October.
On a monthly basis, economic activity in October was unchanged on a
seasonally-adjusted basis, which came in below Septembers 1.1% rise.
Annual average growth in economic activity remained at Septembers 2.1%.
4.0
%
2.0
0.0
OUTLOOK | Businesses turn pessimistic in Q3 for first time since

financial crisis
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Note: Year-on-year and annual average growth rate in %.

Source: Chile Central Bank (BCC) and FocusEconomics calculations.
Business Confidence
80
In Q3, the mood among Chilean businesses deteriorated and dropped to the
lowest level since the financial crisis. The business confidence index (IEE,
Indice de Expectativas Empresariales) produced by the Santiago Chamber of
Commerce (Camara de Comercio de Santiago) deteriorated from Q2s 52.3
points to 49.8 points in October, the lowest reading since Q4 2008. As a result
of the decrease, the index dipped below the 50-point threshold that separates
optimism from pessimism for the first time since Q3 2008.
According to the Santiago Chamber of Commerce, the decrease in Q3 mainly
reflected a downward adjustment in businesses expectations for economic
growth in the next years, as well as uncertainties regarding future economic,
political and institutional developments in Chile.
70
60
50
40
Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15
Note: Business Confidence Index (IEE, Indice de Expectativas Empresariales).

Values above 50 indicate optimistic perception, below 50 indicate negative
perception.
Source: Camara de Comercio de Santiago (CCS).
The analysts we surveyed for this months report expect fixed investment to
contract 1.3% in 2015, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last months
estimate. In 2016, analysts expect fixed investment to increase 1.2%, which is
down 0.1 percentage points from last months projection.
OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment rises in October
In October, the Adimark GfK consumer confidence index (IPEC, Indice de
Percepcion de la Economia) rose from Septembers 34.1 points to 35.2 points.
The index remains below the 50-point threshold separating pessimism from
optimism, where it has been for the last 17 months.
| 53
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015
Octobers improvement mainly reflects that consumers were slightly less

pessimistic about the countrys current economic situation and also their ability
to purchase household items. In addition, consumers views on the countrys
economic situation over the next 12 months improved.
Consumer Confidence
60
50
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect total consumption

to grow 2.3% in 2015, which is unchanged from last months forecast. For
2016, the panel sees total consumption growing 2.6%, which is down 0.1
percentage points from last months estimate.
40
30
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Note: Consumer confidence index (IPEC, Indice de percepcion de la economia).

Values above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in consumer sentiment while
values below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.
Source: Adimark GfK.

1.5
6.0
1.0
4.5
0.5
3.0
0.0
1.5
-0.5
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
0.0
Nov-15
May-15
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.

Source: Chile National Statistical Institute (INE).
Exchange Rate | CLP per USD

750
650
550
450
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Note: Daily spot exchange rate of Chilean peso (CLP) against U.S dollar
(USD).
Source: Thomson Reuters.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation inches down to over-one-year low in

November
In November, consumer prices were unchanged over the previous month,
which was below Octobers 0.4% increase. According to the Statistical
Institute, the result mainly reflected that lower prices for transport were offset
by higher prices for different goods and services.
Inflation dropped slightly from Octobers 4.0% to 3.9% in November, marking
the lowest value since March 2014. As a result, inflation fell slightly below
the upper bound of the Central Banks target range of 3.0% plus/minus 1.0
percentage point. Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile categories
such as oil, fresh fruit and vegetables were unchanged in November over the
previous month, which was below from Octobers 0.5% rise. Core inflation fell
from Octobers 5.1% to 4.9% in November.
The Central Bank sees year-end inflation at 4.6% in 2015 and at 3.7% in 2016.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to close 2015
at 4.5%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last months forecast. For
2016, the panel sees inflation at 3.5%, which is also up 0.1 percentage points
from last months estimate.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Chilean peso depreciates to multi-year low in
November
The Chilean peso weakened to a multi-year low in November, continuing the
overall depreciation trend that had been in place since May 2013. The peso
was somewhat volatile in recent weeks and on 27 November the currency
traded at 714.9 COP per USD, which was the weakest value in many years.
The reading represented a 4.1% depreciation over the same day in October
and a 19.1% depreciation in annual terms. Since the beginning of this year,
the peso lost 18.0% of its value.
Ongoing weakness in the peso is mainly the result of moderating growth
prospects for the Chilean economy. Chiles important mining sector is
struggling to regain momentum in the face of depressed copper prices. In
fact, copper prices fell to an over-six-year low in November. In addition, the
depreciation of the peso also reflects that the U.S. dollar is gaining strength
on the back of an improving U.S. economy, growing risk aversion regarding
emerging market currencies and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve
may soon start hiking interest rates. Volatility in the peso largely reflects
fluctuations in copper prices, speculation regarding the timing of the upcoming
Fed interest rate hike and incoming data on the state of the Chinese economy,
the major buyer of Chilean copper.
Panelists surveyed for this months LatinFocus report expect the peso to
trade at 701 CLP per USD at the end of 2015. Next year, the panel sees the
currency trading at 705 CLP per USD.
| 54
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank holds rate in November

At its meeting on 12 November, the Central Bank of Chile (BCCH) decided to
leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.25%. The decision followed last months
25 basis point hike and met the expectations of market analysts. The Bank
also left the door open for further rate hikes in the future and signaled that a
hike may occur to bring inflation back to the 3.0% target.

6.0
As for international developments, the Bank pointed out that recent data
confirms that growth remains uneven across countries, with more dynamic
results seen in developed economies and weaker figures in emerging
economies. The Bank added that it appears more likely that the first Federal
Reserve hike will occur in December and that risks of possible disruptions in
the markets persist.
4.0
%
2.0
0.0
Jan-10
December 2015
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TMP, Tasa de Politica Monetaria) in %.

Source: Chile Central Bank (BCC).
Regarding Chile, the Bank noted that inflation came in higher than expected
in October. The Bank emphasized that it will continue to monitor inflation and
core inflation closely and that expectations for two years ahead remain at 3.0%.
Regarding the economy, the Bank noted that Q3 data suggest that output and
demand are moving in line with forecasts and that labor market data remains
dynamic. However, the Bank pointed out that confidence indicators remain in
pessimistic territory.
In conclusion, the Bank stated that the monetary policy will remain focused
on bringing inflation to the target. Moreover, the Bank emphasized, its
commitment to conduct monetary policy with flexibility, so that projected
inflation stands at 3% over the policy horizon.
Analysts surveyed for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast report project the
policy rate to end 2015 at 3.40%. Panelists expect the policy rate to end 2016
at 3.77%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Copper prices drop to over-six-year low in
November
Concerns over a slowdown in Chinathe worlds top consumer of copper
an appreciating U.S. dollar and an increased commodity supply triggered a
sell-off in copper and other major commodities. Prices for copper and oil, and
also for gold and other raw materials, have seen new lows recently. Following
Augusts slump, copper prices rose slightly in September and stabilized
in October, partly because several major mining companies announced
production cuts. Nevertheless, in November, copper prices continued to
decline and fell to the lowest level since May 2009, averaging USD 2.18 per
pound (equivalent to USD 5,599 per tonne). This represented an 8% monthly
drop from Octobers average copper price of USD 2.37 per pound and
underlines that the underlying drivers of falling copper prices remain in place.
Copper Price | USD per Lb.

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Note: Cash seller and settlement price.

Source: London Metal Exchange (LME).
Jan-15
In annual terms, copper prices fell a steep 28.5% in November (October:

-22.6% year-on-year), marking the 16th consecutive fall and the sharpest
annual decline since July 2009. Since the beginning of this year, copper prices
lost 25.5% of their value.
Our panel of analysts expects copper prices to average USD 2.63 per pound
in 2015 and USD 2.44 per pound in 2016.
| 55
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015

Annual Data
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (CLP bn)
Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %)
Total Consumption (annual var. in %)
Government Consumption (ann. var. in %)
Industrial Manufacturing (annual var. in %)
Supermarket Sales (annual var. in %)
Money (annual var. of M2 in %)
Inflation (WPI, annual var. in %, eop)
Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop)
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop)
External Sector
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Copper Price (USD per lb, aop)
Quarterly Data
Supermarket Sales (annual var. in %)
CCS (IEE) Business Confid. Index
Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop)
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (IMACEC, annual var. in %)
Consumer Confid. Index (50-point threshold)
Business Confid. Index (50-point threshold)
Copper Price (USD per lb, aop)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
17.1
12,715
217
110,999
15.1
5.8
9.7
10.8
4.6
11.6
3.2
6.8
8.4
-0.3
8.6
17.3
14,662
253
121,319
9.3
5.8
7.8
8.9
2.5
15.0
8.0
3.2
7.2
1.5
11.1
17.4
15,191
265
129,028
6.4
5.5
5.7
6.1
3.6
11.6
2.2
7.1
6.5
0.6
12.0
17.6
15,710
277
137,029
6.2
4.2
5.5
5.9
3.4
2.1
0.2
5.2
6.0
-0.6
12.8
17.8
14,535
259
147,185
7.4
1.9
2.6
2.2
4.4
-6.1
-1.1
2.6
6.3
-1.6
15.1
18.0
13,312
240
156,846
6.6
2.1
2.3
-1.3
-0.4
2.5
6.5
-3.0
16.4
18.2
13,070
238
166,968
6.5
2.5
2.6
1.2
1.4
2.8
6.8
-2.7
17.7
18.4
13,706
252
177,596
6.4
3.0
3.0
1.9
2.2
3.4
6.7
-2.2
19.2
18.6
14,524
270
189,146
6.5
3.3
3.4
3.1
2.6
3.8
6.6
-1.7
20.5
18.8
15,489
291
201,829
6.7
3.7
3.8
4.4
3.1
4.2
6.5
-1.2
21.7
4.1
3.0
1.4
2.5
4.7
3.25
6.26
468
510
12.4
4.4
3.3
3.3
4.2
5.25
5.56
520
484
16.0
1.5
3.0
1.4
2.1
5.00
5.51
479
486
10.9
3.0
1.8
2.3
-0.8
4.50
5.22
525
496
8.7
4.6
4.4
5.1
-5.4
3.00
4.30
607
571
4.5
4.4
3.40
4.64
701
654
3.5
4.0
3.77
4.80
705
702
3.2
3.4
4.11
4.73
704
705
3.1
3.2
4.34
4.60
697
701
3.0
3.0
4.57
4.48
691
694
1.7
3.8
15.9
71.1
55.2
28.2
37.6
3.43
15.5
27.9
6.1
84
38.9
-1.2
-3.1
11.0
81.4
70.4
14.5
27.6
4.00
23.3
42.0
7.2
98
38.9
-3.6
-9.6
2.3
77.8
75.5
-4.5
7.2
3.61
28.5
41.6
6.6
118
44.4
-3.7
-10.1
1.8
76.5
74.7
-1.7
-1.1
3.33
19.3
41.1
6.6
131
47.2
-1.2
-3.0
7.8
75.7
67.9
-1.1
-9.0
3.11
22.0
40.4
7.1
146
56.5
-0.6
-1.5
6.7
67.7
61.0
-10.6
-10.2
2.63
39.5
7.8
147
61.3
-1.2
-2.9
5.6
68.4
62.8
1.1
3.0
2.44
39.8
7.6
150
63.0
-1.4
-3.4
4.8
69.5
64.7
1.6
2.9
2.48
43.5
8.1
159
63.0
-1.6
-4.4
4.5
71.0
66.5
2.1
2.8
2.54
46.2
8.3
168
62.3
-1.9
-5.4
4.5
72.8
68.3
2.6
2.7
2.60
48.9
8.6
177
61.0
Q3 14
1.0
0.4
2.0
-12.1
-2.0
1.4
6.6
52.6
4.9
3.25
4.81
598
-2.5
-1.6
1.1
18.1
17.0
Q4 14
1.8
0.8
1.8
0.5
0.9
1.2
6.2
51.8
4.6
3.00
4.30
607
-1.1
-0.7
1.7
19.0
17.2
Q1 15
2.5
1.1
2.4
-2.1
-0.5
3.4
6.1
55.4
4.2
3.00
4.44
625
0.9
0.5
2.3
17.0
14.7
Q2 15
1.9
-0.1
2.0
-3.3
-0.3
3.1
6.4
52.3
4.4
3.00
4.59
639
0.0
0.0
2.4
16.1
13.8
Q3 15
2.2
0.5
2.5
7.1
0.3
1.5
6.5
49.8
4.6
3.00
4.54
696
-4.6
-2.6
-0.6
14.9
15.5
Q4 15
2.0
3.0
-3.3
-1.6
1.5
6.7
4.5
3.40
4.64
701
-2.2
-1.3
2.2
19.7
17.5
Q1 16
2.1
2.5
0.8
0.6
2.4
6.8
4.3
3.50
4.62
701
-1.1
-0.6
2.1
17.5
15.4
Q2 16
2.3
2.6
1.2
0.9
2.9
6.9
4.0
3.60
4.63
702
-1.5
-0.9
1.9
17.2
15.3
Q3 16
2.6
2.6
0.9
2.2
3.1
6.9
3.7
3.70
4.73
703
-1.7
-1.0
1.1
16.8
15.7
Q4 16
2.8
2.8
1.6
1.7
3.5
7.0
3.5
3.77
4.80
705
-2.1
-1.3
0.6
16.7
16.0
Feb-15
2.3
-0.1
6.1
44.7
41.9
0.4
4.4
617
2.60
Mar-15
1.7
-2.9
6.1
39.7
48.6
0.6
4.2
625
2.69
Apr-15
2.1
0.8
6.2
38.3
48.5
0.6
4.1
612
2.74
May-15
1.1
-3.2
6.6
39.0
46.5
0.2
4.0
618
2.85
Jun-15
2.6
1.6
6.5
37.2
47.1
0.5
4.4
639
2.65
Jul-15
2.5
0.7
6.6
34.3
42.6
0.4
4.6
674
2.48
Aug-15
1.4
-1.5
6.5
33.9
39.7
0.7
5.0
693
2.33
Sep-15
2.7
1.8
6.4
34.1
45.3
0.5
4.6
696
2.37
Oct-15
1.5
-3.0
6.3
35.2
43.0
0.4
4.0
692
2.37
Nov-15
42.5
0.0
3.9
711
2.18
| 56
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %
2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %
10
4
5
2
0
Chile
Chile
Latin America
World
Latin America
-5
2000
World
2005
2010
-2
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

6
6
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Maximum
Consensus
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< 1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
> 4.0
Banchile Inversiones
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Cmara Com. Santiago
Capital Economics
CorpResearch
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Econsult
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Inversiones Security
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
OECD (Nov. 2015)
2015
2.0
2.5
2.1
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
1.9
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.1
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.0
2016
2.2
3.0
2.4
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.0
2.2
2.3
3.0
2.0
2.5
2.3
2.8
2.2
2.1
2.7
3.4
2.8
2.5
2.7
2.0
2.5
2.3
2.7
3.0
2.4
2.4
2.0
2.7
2.5
1.9
2.5
2.1
2.1
2.0
3.4
2.4
2.5
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.0-2.5
2.3
2.2
2.5-3.5
2.5
3.2
Notes and sources

General:
the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on
| 57
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015

Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Cmara Com. Santiago
Capital Economics
CorpResearch
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Econsult
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Consumption
variation in %
2015
2016
2.3
2.5
2.4
2.7
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.3
2.5
3.0
4.0
3.2
2.3
1.4
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.0
3.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
3.0
2.5
2.9
2.0
2.7
2.0
2.7
2.2
2.5
2.5
3.3
1.8
2.5
2.6
2.5
1.8
2.3
-
Investment
variation in %
2015
2016
-2.2
0.2
-1.2
1.6
-2.4
0.2
-1.3
0.8
-0.4
0.7
0.0
2.0
-2.8
1.0
-1.2
1.7
0.4
2.0
0.0
2.0
-1.5
3.0
-1.5
3.5
0.3
1.8
-1.4
1.0
-2.4
0.6
-1.6
0.8
-0.2
-0.1
-5.0
1.0
-2.0
-0.3
-2.0
0.2
0.7
2.0
-
1.8
4.0
2.3
2.3
1.4
3.3
2.5
2.6
-5.0
0.7
-1.4
-1.3
-0.3
3.5
1.0
1.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.7
2.6
2.7
-1.7
-1.7
-1.0
1.3
1.6
1.8
10
0
Chile
Latin America
-5
2000
2005
2010
2015

5
2015
2016
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
30
15
Chile
-15
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

6
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National
Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6 Total consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Total consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
0
2015
-2
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 58
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015

10
-5
Chile
-10
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

4
0
2015
-1
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

12
10
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Cmara Com. Santiago
Capital Economics
CorpResearch
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Econsult
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Industry
variation in %
2015
2016
-1.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.3
0.6
3.0
-0.3
1.5
0.5
1.0
-0.5
2.0
-1.2
2.8
-1.3
1.1
0.2
2.4
-0.4
0.9
-1.0
1.0
-
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2015
2016
6.6
6.8
6.6
7.0
6.6
7.2
6.0
5.7
6.6
7.0
6.5
7.4
6.3
6.6
6.5
7.0
6.4
6.9
6.7
7.0
6.5
6.8
6.4
6.8
6.5
7.3
6.4
6.7
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.0
6.5
6.7
6.5
7.3
6.6
7.1
6.4
6.5
6.4
7.0
6.3
7.0
6.4
7.2
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2015
2016
-3.7
-3.3
-3.1
-2.7
-2.9
-3.4
-3.3
-3.2
-1.9
-2.0
-3.0
-2.8
-3.4
-3.5
-2.5
-2.6
-3.9
-3.1
-3.3
-3.5
-3.3
-3.0
-2.7
-3.2
-3.3
-3.2
-3.3
-2.9
-3.3
-3.3
-3.5
-3.6
-3.1
-2.5
-2.6
-2.3
-1.3
-1.0
-2.5
-2.5
-2.5
-1.5
-2.7
-1.0
-1.3
0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
3.0
1.1
1.4
6.0
6.7
6.5
6.5
5.7
7.4
7.0
6.8
-3.9
-1.3
-3.1
-3.0
-3.6
-1.0
-3.0
-2.7
-0.5
-0.3
0.4
1.2
2.0
2.2
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.8
6.7
6.7
-2.9
-2.9
-2.8
-2.7
-2.6
-2.1
Chile
Latin America
4
2000
2005
2010
2015

10
Notes and sources
-5
Chile
Latin America
-10
2000
2005
2010
2015
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) and the Ministry of Finance (Ministerio de Hacienda). See below for details.
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INE.
12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance.
| 59
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %
20
20
Chile
Chile
Latin America
15
15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %
Latin America
15
10
10
5
-5
2000
2005
2010
0
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

5.5

4.5
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.5
2.5
3.0
1.5
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
2.5
Oct
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

60%
40%
20%
0%
< 2.1
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.5
4.9
> 4.9
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Cmara Com. Santiago
Capital Economics
CorpResearch
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Econsult
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
OECD (Nov. 2015)
2015
4.5
4.8
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.3
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.8
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.8
4.5
4.0
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.8
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.0
2016
3.7
3.8
3.1
3.2
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.3
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.9
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.2
3.5
3.7
2.8
3.5
3.8
3.7
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.4
4.0
4.9
4.5
4.5
2.8
3.9
3.5
3.5
4.4
4.5
4.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
4.6
4.2
4.4
3.7
3.5
3.1
Notes and sources

are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts are
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
| 60
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015

19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %

12
16
Chile
Latin America
10
12
Chile
Latin America
8
8
6
4
0
2000
2005
2010
2
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

6

8
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum
Minimum
5
6
4
4
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

80%
60%
40%
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Cmara Com. Santiago
Capital Economics
CorpResearch
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Econsult
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
3.50
3.50
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.50
3.50
3.25
3.50
3.25
3.25
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.25
3.25
3.50
3.25
3.75
3.25
3.50
3.50
2016
3.75
4.00
3.50
3.75
3.75
4.00
4.00
3.75
3.50
3.75
3.50
3.50
4.50
4.00
3.50
4.00
4.00
3.50
3.50
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.50
4.00
3.25
3.75
3.50
3.40
3.50
4.50
3.75
3.77
3.38
3.28
3.10
3.75
3.71
3.68
20%
0%
< 2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
> 5.50
Notes and sources

are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
19 Interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).
20 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).
| 61
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015

24 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD
25 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD

750
800
700
650
600
550
500
400
2000
2005
2010
450
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
26 | CLP per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst
27 | CLP per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

800
800
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum
Minimum
700
700
600
600
500
500
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
28 | CLP per USD 2016 | Panelist Distribution

60%
40%
20%
0%
< 550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
Exchange Rate | CLP per USD
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Cmara Com. Santiago
Capital Economics
CorpResearch
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Econsult
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
670
710
700
680
670
715
712
695
720
726
700
690
710
705
701
698
715
700
700
700
720
720
697
685
708
700
675
2016
655
760
650
660
630
760
741
710
700
723
730
675
770
710
710
718
740
710
730
715
765
740
702
670
703
590
670
670
726
700
701
590
770
710
705
696
695
675
693
692
678
> 900
Notes and sources

24 Exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
25 Quarterly exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
| 62
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015

Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Cmara Com. Santiago
Capital Economics
CorpResearch
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Econsult
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Current Account
% of GDP
2015
2016
-0.8
-1.3
-0.4
-1.3
-0.3
-1.5
0.0
-1.2
-0.9
-1.0
0.7
0.1
-1.1
-2.5
-1.0
-1.0
-0.8
-1.7
-1.2
-1.8
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-1.3
-2.0
-1.7
-0.4
-0.9
-0.9
-0.6
-1.1
-1.5
0.4
0.8
-1.5
-3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-1.6
-2.5
-0.7
-1.5
-0.8
-1.1
1.0
0.5
-1.0
-2.8
-0.2
-0.4
-0.2
-1.2
Trade Balance
USD bn
2015
2016
5.2
4.6
5.5
3.8
7.5
3.6
8.0
7.2
8.1
7.1
5.9
4.9
2.7
6.0
5.1
7.0
6.0
5.3
3.3
9.1
9.0
5.0
5.6
3.3
2.6
5.8
4.6
10.8
10.1
5.5
3.5
6.9
7.7
4.4
0.0
9.6
9.9
12.0
14.0
6.0
5.4
4.8
1.1
7.2
6.3
-2.0
1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-3.1
0.8
-1.3
-1.2
3.3
12.0
6.0
6.7
0.0
14.0
5.3
5.6
-0.6
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
7.4
7.7
7.8
6.7
7.4
7.8
Chile
Latin America
-2
-4
2000
2005
2010
2015

0
2015
2016
-1
-2
-3
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

100
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
75
50
25
0
2000
2005
2010
2015

10.0
2015
2016
7.5
Notes and sources
5.0
Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2.5
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 63
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015

Exports and Imports
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Cmara Com. Santiago
Capital Economics
CorpResearch
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Econsult
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Exports
USD bn
2015
73.0
70.1
69.5
67.7
66.5
65.8
65.2
64.3
73.0
64.5
68.9
64.5
63.9
61.8
73.0
64.2
66.3
63.7
77.4
77.2
64.0
65.0
67.2
2016
72.6
73.6
77.0
68.4
66.7
66.3
62.4
75.0
61.6
72.3
61.4
62.4
62.4
78.5
62.2
65.5
60.5
81.3
79.9
63.6
61.1
71.1
Imports
USD bn
2015
67.8
64.6
62.0
59.8
58.4
59.9
60.4
58.4
66.0
59.2
59.8
59.5
60.6
56.0
62.2
58.7
59.3
59.2
67.8
65.2
58.0
60.2
60.1
2016
67.9
69.8
73.4
61.2
59.6
63.6
57.3
69.0
58.3
63.3
55.8
59.8
57.8
68.3
58.8
57.8
60.5
71.4
65.8
58.2
60.0
64.8
61.8
77.4
66.3
67.7
60.5
81.3
66.5
68.4
56.0
67.8
59.9
61.0
55.8
73.4
60.8
62.8
68.5
69.5
70.7
69.9
71.8
73.5
61.1
61.9
62.9
63.1
64.3
65.8
60
Chile
Latin America
30
-30
2000
2005
2010
2015

95
2015
2016
85
75
65
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
40
20
-20
Chile
-40
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

90
80
Notes and sources

70
2015
60
Jul
Oct
Jan
2016
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 64
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015

Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BCI
BICE Inversiones
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Cmara Com. Santiago
Capital Economics
CorpResearch
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Econsult
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Int. Reserves
USD bn
2015
2016
39.8
40.2
41.4
42.1
42.0
46.0
38.0
38.0
38.2
38.2
39.4
38.5
37.0
36.0
40.2
41.1
39.0
39.7
39.3
38.3
38.9
37.9
42.0
41.7
38.2
38.2
38.0
39.0
40.0
39.0
38.0
40.0
40.4
40.4
39.0
42.3
41.0
40.0
-
External Debt
USD bn
2015
2016
149
146
149
141
137
140
136
148
152
146
166
152
160
146
146
149
151
154
162
146
149
146
139
-
37.0
42.0
39.3
39.5
36.0
46.0
39.7
39.8
140
154
146
147
136
166
149
150
39.3
39.6
39.9
39.6
40.1
40.4
147
147
146
151
151
149
12
Chile
Latin America
10
4
2000
2005
2010
2015

46
2015
2016
44
42
40
38
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

70
Chile
Latin America
50
30
10
2000
2005
2010
2015

160
2015
2016
150
Notes and sources

140
130
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 65
FOCUSECONOMICS
Chile
December 2015
Fact Sheet
General Data
Chile in the Region
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Republic of Chile
Santiago (5.8 m)
Valparaso (0.9 m)
Concepcin (0.9 m)
756,950
17.8
23.5
0.8
78.4
1.4
Spanish
Metric system
GMT-4
Area (km2):
Language:
Measures:
Time:

Chile
3.1%
Chile
4.3%
Other
19.5%
Other
28.8%
Brazil
33.6%
18.2
134
66.5
12.3
329
1,419
66.9
63.4
17.3
342
81.5
Colombia
7.9%
Mexico
19.8%
Mexico
21.6%

100
2005-07
2008-10
2011-13
Manufacturing
60
40
Other Industry
20
Services
Government
Consumption
20
Private
Consumption

Brazil
6.5%
Japan
9.9%
Other
11.4%

EU-27
14.6%
U.S.A.
20.3%
Exports
Other
LatAm
12.1%
Imports
Other
LatAm
18.8%
Outlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
High dependence on copper

exports
Relatively small domestic
market
Privatization of state-owned
copper giant CODELCO not
on agenda
.
40
U.S.A.
12.8%
Brazil
5.8%
Market oriented policy firmly

anchored
Structurally sound and prudent
fiscal policy
Free trade agreements with
major economic areas
Low import tariffs have created
competitive industry
Investment
60
China
24.9%
Weaknesses
Net Exports
Trade Structure
Korea
5.5%
Strengths
2011-13
Rating
Aa3
AAA+
2008-10
80
Other
14.5%
Agency
Moodys:
S&P:
Fitch Ratings:
2005-07
Agriculture
Political Data
Michelle Bachelet
17 November 2013
19 November 2017
Rodrigo Vergara Montes

100
481
7,082
77,764
Valparaso, San Antonio
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Brazil
39.2%
Argentina
9.0%
Argentina
7.0%
80
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Chief Ports:
Colombia
6.3%
Economic Structure
Energy (2012)
EU-27
16.4%

Other Asia

ex-Japan
6.8%
China
19.7%
Food
19.2%
Agric.
Raw Mat.
5.4%
Other Manufact.
1.0% Products
13.9%
Food
7.5%
Other
2.6%
Mineral
Fuels
22.2%
Exports
Imports
Ores &
Metals
60.4%
Manufact.
Products
67.7%
| 66
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015
Colombia
Outlook stable
Colombia
Colombias economy accelerated in Q2 thanks to a partial recovery in the

GDP (USD bn):
GDP growth (%):
Inflation (%):
2011-13
46.6
362
7,759
5.2
-2.0
33.3
2.9
-3.1
22.7
2014-16
48.2
320
6,645
3.4
-3.2
40.2
4.3
-5.5
34.2
2017-19
49.9
342
6,855
3.7
-2.6
40.7
3.1
-4.0
37.0
external sector. Data through Q3 point to better-than-expected growth,

with strong retail sales suggesting dynamic domestic demand. As low oil
prices weigh on government revenues, authorities have cut the equivalent
of 0.7% of GDP from the initial 2015 budget in the last months. The 2016
budget, currently being assessed by the Congress, is expected to be 1.0%
of GDP lower than the 2015 budget and targets a headline deficit of 3.6%
of GDP. Both measures are intended to demonstrate the governments
commitment to fiscal discipline. Meanwhile, the country has been suffering
its worst drought on record due to El Nio, which threatens to empty water
reservoirs and could cause energy blackouts. Restrictions have already
been put in place in several provinces and cities.
Colombia is showing signs of renewed dynamism. However, the economy

remains exposed to commodity prices and immediate concerns such as
El Nio threaten to dampen a fragile recovery. Panelists participating in
the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect the economy to grow 2.9%
in 2015. For 2016, the panel projects economic growth of 2.8%, which is
unchanged from last months projection.
Inflation rose from Octobers 5.9% to 6.4% in November, thus reaching

its highest level since February 2009. At its meeting on 27 November, the
Central Bank decided to increase the reference interest rate by 25 basis
points from 5.25% to 5.50%, which surprised markets expecting a larger
50 basis points hike. Panelists expect inflation to close 2015 at 5.9%. For
2016, they see inflation at 4.0%.
REAL SECTOR | Pace of industrial production slows in September
Eric Denis
In September, industrial production rose 2.0% over the same month of the
previous year, which was a deceleration compared to the 2.6% increase
recorded in August. The reading slightly undershot market expectations of
a 2.1% rise. The print reflected decreases in 18 out of the 39 indexs subcategories. The result mainly came on the back of a deterioration in oil refining
activities, which more than offset improvements in the beverage processing
industry.
Economist

10
Panelists surveyed for this months LatinFocus report expect that industrial
production will expand 1.1% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points
from last months forecast. For 2016, the panel expects industrial production to
increase 4.2%, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last months estimate.
%
0
-5
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Note: Year-on-year changes of industrial production in %.

Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
The Central Bank expects the economy to grow 3.0% in 2015. Panelists
participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that GDP will
expand 2.9% in 2015, which is unchanged from the previous months estimate.
In 2016, panelists participating in this months LatinFocus report expect GDP
to grow 2.8%, which is also unchanged from last months forecast.
| 67
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence rises in October
Consumer Confidence
The Fedesarrollo consumer sentiment index rose from Septembers 4.3

points to 6.8 points in October, reaching a four-month high. As a result of the
increase, the index is now further above the 0-point threshold that separates
optimistic from pessimistic territory.
30
20
10
The improvement reflected increases in four of the five sub-components that

comprise the index. More precisely, consumers willingness to buy big-ticket
items improved and their view of future general economic climate became
much less pessimistic.
-10
Oct-12
December 2015
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Note: Index of consumer sentiment. Values above 0 indicate optimistic

perception, below 0 indicate negative perception.
Source: Fedesarrollo.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect total

consumption to expand 3.0% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points
from last months forecast. For 2016, the panel expects total consumption to
increase 2.6%, which is unchanged from last months estimate.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation climbs in November

7.5
2.0
In November, consumer prices rose 0.60% over the previous month, which
came in slightly below the 0.68% price increase registered in October and
marked a three-month low. Novembers moderation mainly reflected a
decrease in prices of transport, which more than offset an increase in food
prices.

1.0
5.0
0.0
2.5
-1.0
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
0.0
Nov-15
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of cons. price index in %.

Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE).
Inflation increased from Octobers 5.9% to 6.4% in November, thus reaching

its highest level since February 2009. As a result, inflation moved further
above the Central Banks tolerance margin of plus/minus 1.0 percentage point
around its 3.0% target.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect that
inflation will close 2015 at 5.9%, which is up 0.7 percentage points from last
months forecast. For 2016, the panel expects inflation to end the year at
4.0%, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last months estimate.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank hikes rate less than expected by
0.25%
The members of the Central Bank (BanRep) Board decided to increase the
reference interest rate by 25 basis points from 5.25% to 5.50% at the Banks
27 November monetary policy meeting. The decision surprised the markets,
which had expected a stronger 50 percentage points increase. This is the third
consecutive time the Central Bank has hiked the reference rate this year. The
next policy meeting is scheduled for 30 December.
In its accompanying statement, BanRep reaffirmed that recent data pointed
to weaker external demand than in 2014. Growth in the United States has
been relatively strong, while the Eurozone is experiencing a modest recovery.
In addition, the pace of Chinas economy is continuing to slow and growth
in Latin American countries remains subdued or even negative. BanRep
highlighted that, the probability of the FED increasing its benchmark interest
rate in December rose and the long-term bond rates increased.
Regarding the domestic economy, BanRep noted that the latest data point
to better-than-expected growth in Q3, with retail sales suggesting dynamic
domestic demand. However, net exports are expected to contribute negatively
to growth. Nevertheless, supply side indicators such as industrial production
and production of cement, suggest solid growth and the Bank expects GDP
| 68
FOCUSECONOMICS
6.0
5.0
4.0
%
3.0
2.0
Note: Central Bank policy rate in %.

Source: Colombia Central Bank (BankRep).
Colombia
December 2015
growth of around 4.0% in Q3. As a consequence, BanRep maintained its

growth forecast for 2015 at 3.0%.
In terms of price developments, BanRep pointed out that inflation in October
and the average of four different measures of core inflation exceeded its
projections and remain above its target. In addition, various indicators signal
that medium-term inflation expectations increased and are in the top range
of the target or even above it. The main factors that are influencing these
renewed inflationary pressures are nominal depreciation being passed to
consumers, the increase in the cost of imported raw materials and a soft
food supply. BanRep added that, pass-through of part of the devaluation of
the peso to consumer prices and a strong presence of El Nio have slowed
down convergence of inflation to the target, due to its direct impact on prices
and inflation expectations, as well as to the probable triggering of indexation
mechanisms.
Against this backdrop, the Bank decided to hike the reference rate for the
third consecutive time. BanRep argued that, inflation expectations have
increased and the risk of a slowdown in domestic demand, beyond that which
is consistent with the decline registered in national income, has moderated.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see the policy
rate ending 2015 at 5.71% and they expect it to end 2016 at 5.54%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Colombian peso tumbles following smaller-thanexpected rate hike and oil prices slump
Exchange Rate | COP per USD

3,300
3,000
2,700
2,400
2,100
The Colombian peso (COP) has been depreciating rapidly since the second
half of May 2015. It reached a multi-year low of 3,262 COP per USD on 26
August amid significant volatility in emerging markets following the surprise
depreciation of the Chinese yuan on 24 August. After regaining some ground,
the currency reached 2,800 COP per USD on 3 November, its strongest value
since July, thanks to a surprise 0.50% rate hike of the Central Bank (BanRep)
and the announcement of a system of auctions to stabilize the currency.
Since then, the currency has been depreciating rapidly. On 3 December,
the currency was trading at 3,162 COP per USD. The reading represented
a 12.9% depreciation over the value tallied on the same day of the previous
month and was 38.2% weaker compared to the same day of last year.
1,800
1,500
Jan-10Jul-10 Jan-11Jul-11 Jan-12Jul-12 Jan-13Jul-13 Jan-14Jul-14 Jan-15Jul-15
Note: Daily spot of Colombian peso (COP) against U.S. dollar (USD).
Source: Thomson Reuters.
The most recent depreciation came amid a smaller-than-expected 0.25% rate

hike of BanRep on 27 November and a plunge in oil prices. The depreciative
trend observed since the second half of 2014 has resulted mostly from the
persisting low oil prices that are weighing on Colombias growth prospects.
Indeed, oil accounts for around 40% of Colombias exports and about 20%
of the government budget comes from oil revenues. Furthermore, increased
probability of an imminent rate hike by the Federal Reserve has lately been
putting additional pressure on the currency.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect the
Colombian peso to trade at 3,075 COP per USD at the end of 2015. In 2016,
the panel foresees the Colombian currency trading at 3,080 COP per USD.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports contract at a softer rate in October
In October, exports shrank 36.9% over the same month last year, coming in
above Septembers 43.4% drop and marking a four-month high. According
to the National Statistical Office (DANE), despite still recording significant
| 69
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
contractions, exports of petroleum and oil derivatives as well as mining product

exports fell at softer rates in October.
Exports | variation in %
25
%
Imports declined 22.6% in September (the most recent month for which data
are available), which was below Augusts 9.2% contraction. The trade balance
recorded a USD 1.4 billion deficit in September, which was a significant
deterioration from the USD 469 million deficit recorded in the same month of
the previous year.
-25
Year-on-year
-50
Oct-13
December 2015
Apr-14
Annual average
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect that

exports will fall 25.4% in 2015 and expand 6.9% in 2016.
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.

Source: Colombia National Statistical Office (DANE).
| 70
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015

Annual Data
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (COP tn)
Government Consumption (annual var. in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual var. in %, eop)
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop)
90-day DTF (%, eop)
Stock Market (IGBC variation in %)
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop)
External Sector
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %)
90-day DTF (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop)
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Monthly Data
Cons. Conf. Index (0-point threshold)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
45.5
6,309
287
545
7.9
4.0
5.6
5.1
5.0
5.6
4.9
4.3
8.0
11.8
-3.5
34.4
46.0
7,286
335
620
13.8
6.6
8.6
5.5
6.0
3.6
19.0
5.0
7.8
10.8
-2.0
33.2
46.6
7,932
369
664
7.1
4.0
4.7
4.8
4.4
6.3
4.7
-0.2
4.1
10.4
-1.9
31.7
47.1
8,060
380
710
6.9
4.9
5.1
4.9
3.8
9.2
6.0
-1.8
4.7
9.7
-2.2
34.9
47.7
7,919
377
756
6.5
4.6
6.5
4.7
4.4
6.2
10.9
1.3
7.6
9.1
-2.6
37.8
48.2
6,155
297
816
8.0
2.9
2.8
3.0
2.6
1.1
4.1
9.1
-3.2
40.7
48.8
5,859
286
879
7.7
2.8
2.4
2.6
2.9
4.2
3.3
9.3
-3.7
42.3
49.3
6,250
308
937
6.6
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.6
3.7
3.9
9.2
-3.1
41.4
49.9
6,820
340
1,002
6.9
3.7
4.0
3.7
4.4
3.6
4.3
9.0
-2.6
40.7
50.5
7,495
378
1,072
7.0
4.1
4.7
4.2
5.2
3.4
4.7
8.8
-2.0
40.0
10.2
3.2
2.3
3.2
5.8
3.00
3.47
7.68
33.6
1,920
1,898
18.9
3.7
3.4
3.9
8.7
4.75
4.98
7.63
-18.3
1,939
1,848
16.5
2.4
3.2
3.2
-4.9
4.25
5.27
5.55
16.2
1,767
1,797
14.7
1.9
2.0
2.7
-0.1
3.25
4.07
6.83
-11.2
1,930
1,869
9.1
3.7
2.9
3.4
6.0
4.50
4.34
7.18
-11.0
2,389
2,003
5.9
5.1
5.71
5.44
7.60
3,075
2,750
4.0
5.0
5.54
5.72
7.65
3,080
3,078
3.4
3.2
5.18
5.40
7.56
3,000
3,040
3.1
3.2
4.99
5.30
7.49
2,890
2,945
2.8
2.9
4.80
5.20
7.42
2,781
2,836
-3.0
-8.7
1.6
39.7
38.2
20.9
22.4
6.4
28.5
8.9
64.7
22.5
-2.9
-9.7
5.4
56.9
51.6
43.3
35.1
14.6
32.3
7.5
75.6
22.5
-3.1
-11.3
4.0
60.1
56.1
5.6
8.8
15.0
37.5
8.0
78.7
21.3
-3.3
-12.4
2.2
58.8
56.6
-2.2
0.9
16.2
43.6
9.2
92.0
24.2
-5.2
-19.6
-6.3
54.8
61.1
-6.8
7.9
16.2
47.3
9.3
101.2
26.8
-6.1
-18.2
-12.0
40.9
52.8
-25.4
-13.6
46.5
10.6
108.0
36.4
-5.2
-14.9
-8.5
43.7
52.2
6.9
-1.0
46.3
10.6
112.3
39.3
-4.6
-14.1
-5.7
47.5
53.2
8.8
1.9
47.0
10.6
115.8
37.6
-4.0
-13.7
-3.1
52.1
55.2
9.7
3.7
48.2
10.5
126.5
37.2
-3.5
-13.2
-0.5
57.7
58.2
10.7
5.4
49.3
10.2
137.3
36.3
Q3 14
4.2
1.0
4.4
11.8
5.2
8.9
2.9
4.50
4.35
2,025
1,911
-5.0
-5.0
-1.1
14.9
16.0
Q4 14
3.4
0.5
5.0
10.1
0.9
8.1
3.7
4.50
4.34
2,389
2,181
-6.8
-6.0
-4.1
11.9
15.9
Q1 15
2.8
0.9
3.6
5.9
-0.9
9.8
4.6
4.50
4.36
2,600
2,473
-6.1
-5.0
-4.0
9.5
13.5
Q2 15
3.0
0.6
3.0
1.9
-0.7
8.9
4.4
4.50
4.28
2,605
2,499
-4.9
-4.0
-2.7
9.8
12.5
Q3 15
3.1
3.1
1.1
1.7
9.0
5.4
4.75
4.39
3,088
2,947
-6.4
-4.4
-4.6
8.7
13.3
Q4 15
2.8
2.4
1.3
4.4
9.4
5.9
5.71
5.44
3,075
3,081
-6.5
-4.4
-3.2
14.2
17.4
Q1 16
2.5
2.1
1.4
4.1
9.2
5.7
5.72
5.55
3,076
3,076
-5.3
-3.7
-2.8
12.6
15.4
Q2 16
2.6
2.3
2.8
4.8
9.5
5.5
5.67
5.67
3,078
3,077
-5.2
-3.6
-2.4
11.4
13.8
Q3 16
2.9
2.6
3.4
4.0
9.1
4.7
5.62
5.69
3,079
3,079
-4.9
-3.5
-1.9
11.9
13.8
Q4 16
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.9
9.2
4.0
5.54
5.72
3,080
3,080
-5.2
-3.8
-2.8
12.6
15.4
Feb-15
-0.5
9.9
14.0
1.15
4.4
2,500
-26.6
Mar-15
0.5
8.9
2.3
0.59
4.6
2,600
-21.6
Apr-15
-2.2
9.5
8.2
0.54
4.6
2,382
-25.5
May-15
-3.1
8.9
13.7
0.26
4.4
2,531
-38.9
Jun-15
3.2
8.3
14.7
0.10
4.4
2,605
-31.7
Jul-15
0.6
8.8
2.6
0.19
4.5
2,880
-40.3
Aug-15
2.6
9.1
-0.4
0.48
4.7
3,055
-41.6
Sep-15
2.0
9.0
4.3
0.72
5.4
3,088
-43.4
Oct-15
8.2
6.8
0.68
5.9
2,897
-36.9
Nov-15
0.60
6.4
3,145
-
| 71
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %
2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %
10
8
6
4
2
-5
2000
Colombia
Latin America
World
2005
2010
-2
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
Colombia
Latin America
World
2
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< 1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
> 4.5
ANIF
Banco Bradesco
Banco de Bogot
Bancolombia
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Corficolombiana
CorpBanca Econmico
Corredores Asociados
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
Santander
Standard Chartered
Telefnica Colombia
UBS
Ultraserfinco
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
CEPAL (Oct. 2015)
Central Bank (Nov. 2015)
2015
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.1
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.6
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.0
3.2
3.0
2.6
3.0
2.3
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
3.2
2016
2.5
3.5
3.2
2.8
2.1
2.4
3.4
1.8
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.4
2.5
3.4
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.5
2.8
2.2
3.3
2.3
2.8
3.2
3.2
2.5
2.9
2.8
3.4
2.3
3.4
3.0
2.9
1.8
3.5
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.5
2.9
3.0
2.8
3.1
-
Notes and sources

General:
the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica).
| 72
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015

ANIF
Banco Bradesco
Banco de Bogot
Bancolombia
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Corficolombiana
CorpBanca Econmico
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
Santander
Standard Chartered
Telefnica Colombia
UBS
Ultraserfinco
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Consumption
variation in %
2015
2016
3.0
1.7
3.1
3.8
3.1
2.8
2.6
1.5
2.5
1.9
3.7
3.5
2.7
1.6
2.4
1.7
3.0
2.0
3.2
3.2
3.3
2.7
2.6
2.0
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.0
3.2
2.2
2.6
2.2
3.2
2.7
3.3
2.6
3.0
2.8
3.5
4.0
3.0
2.8
3.0
2.3
Investment
variation in %
2015
2016
4.4
5.1
4.9
0.8
3.4
5.5
0.6
1.9
2.7
5.1
6.0
5.0
0.1
-0.8
-1.9
-3.0
1.5
0.5
3.2
3.0
2.9
3.2
2.7
3.4
2.0
5.4
3.0
4.5
4.1
3.5
1.1
2.6
4.2
4.5
0.2
-0.5
3.0
2.8
3.8
4.6
2.4
3.7
3.1
3.0
1.5
4.0
2.6
2.6
-1.9
6.0
3.0
2.6
-3.0
5.5
3.3
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.2
2.6
2.8
3.0
2.3
2.6
3.2
2.8
2.8
3.2
8
6
4
2
0
Colombia
-2
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

5
2015
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
20
10
-10
2000
Colombia
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

8
Notes and sources

Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
7 Total consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2015
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 73
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015

15
10
5
0
-5
-10
2000
Colombia
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

5
2
2015
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

20
Colombia
Latin America
15
10
5
2000
2005
2010
ANIF
Banco Bradesco
Banco de Bogot
Bancolombia
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Corficolombiana
CorpBanca Econmico
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
Santander
Standard Chartered
Telefnica Colombia
UBS
Ultraserfinco
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Industry
variation in %
2015
2016
-0.1
2.2
0.9
3.0
1.5
7.3
2.0
4.5
0.3
1.5
0.1
4.0
1.4
2.5
1.6
5.2
1.5
3.9
1.0
3.0
1.6
9.3
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2015
2016
9.1
9.4
9.6
9.4
9.2
9.4
9.3
9.0
9.6
9.2
9.0
9.5
9.2
9.7
9.4
9.6
9.0
9.3
8.9
9.6
9.0
9.2
9.2
9.3
8.5
8.5
9.3
9.6
8.5
9.0
9.2
9.3
9.0
9.6
9.0
8.9
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2015
2016
-3.0
-2.5
-3.3
-4.4
-3.1
-3.9
-3.1
-3.6
-3.1
-3.5
-3.6
-5.1
-3.0
-3.6
-3.5
-3.2
-3.0
-3.7
-3.0
-3.9
-3.0
-3.6
-3.0
-3.6
-3.0
-4.0
-3.2
-3.8
-3.0
-4.1
-3.3
-3.6
-3.0
-3.6
-3.0
-3.7
-3.6
-3.5
-3.0
-3.7
-3.0
-3.6
-3.2
-4.0
-3.3
-3.9
-0.1
2.0
1.4
1.1
1.5
9.3
3.9
4.2
8.5
9.6
9.2
9.1
8.5
9.7
9.4
9.3
-3.6
-3.0
-3.0
-3.2
-5.1
-2.5
-3.7
-3.7
1.6
1.7
1.8
3.8
3.8
3.5
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.2
9.2
9.2
-3.1
-3.1
-3.1
-3.6
-3.7
-3.7
2015

0
-2
-4
Notes and sources

-6
Colombia
Latin America
-8
2000
2005
2010
2015
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica) and the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la Republica). See
below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: DANE.
12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: DANE.
13 Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.
| 74
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %
20
20
Colombia
Colombia
Latin America
Latin America
15
15
10
10
0
2000
15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %
2005
2010
0
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

5
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

60%
40%
20%
0%
< 2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
ANIF
Banco Bradesco
Banco de Bogot
Bancolombia
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Corficolombiana
CorpBanca Econmico
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
Santander
Standard Chartered
Telefnica Colombia
UBS
Ultraserfinco
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
2015
6.7
5.7
6.5
6.3
5.9
4.9
6.4
6.3
6.7
6.3
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.3
6.2
6.3
4.5
6.3
6.3
5.5
6.4
4.4
6.3
4.6
4.3
6.2
5.5
5.4
2016
4.0
3.7
4.0
4.5
3.7
4.4
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.5
4.2
3.8
3.9
3.9
4.5
3.4
4.2
3.8
4.2
4.3
3.5
4.1
4.0
4.1
3.5
3.3
4.0
3.5
4.3
4.3
6.7
6.2
5.9
3.3
4.5
4.0
4.0
5.2
4.9
4.4
3.6
3.6
3.4
4.2
3.3
> 5.5
Notes and sources

are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de
Estadistica). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
| 75
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015

19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %

12
16
10
12
Colombia
Latin America
8
8
6
4
Colombia
Latin America
0
2000
2005
2010
2
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

8
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< 3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
ANIF
Banco Bradesco
Banco de Bogot
Bancolombia
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Corficolombiana
CorpBanca Econmico
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
Santander
Standard Chartered
Telefnica Colombia
UBS
Ultraserfinco
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
5.75
6.00
5.50
5.50
5.75
5.75
5.75
6.00
5.50
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.50
5.50
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.50
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
2016
5.75
6.00
5.50
5.00
6.00
4.50
5.25
6.25
5.50
4.75
4.75
5.50
5.00
5.00
6.50
7.00
5.50
6.75
5.50
5.50
5.00
5.50
5.50
5.50
6.00
5.75
5.71
4.50
7.00
5.50
5.54
5.36
4.93
4.63
5.03
4.67
4.50
> 7.00
Notes and sources

from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la Republica). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
19 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
20 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
| 76
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015

24 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD
25 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD

3,200
3,500
2,900
3,000
2,600
2,500
2,300
2,000
2,000
1,500
2000
2005
2010
1,700
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
26 | COP per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst
27 | COP per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

4,000
4,000
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
3,500
Minimum
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
Jul
Oct
Jan
Minimum
3,500
Apr
Jul
1,500
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
28 | COP per USD 2016 | Panelist Distribution

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< 2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
3,750
4,000
Exchange Rate | COP per USD
ANIF
Banco Bradesco
Banco de Bogot
Bancolombia
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Corficolombiana
CorpBanca Econmico
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
Santander
Standard Chartered
Telefnica Colombia
UBS
Ultraserfinco
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
2,960
3,000
2,965
3,100
3,000
2,900
3,200
3,155
3,000
3,050
2,900
3,250
3,129
3,066
3,050
3,250
2,950
3,100
3,300
3,500
2,900
2,900
3,100
2016
3,130
3,100
2,700
3,000
3,300
3,016
3,500
3,177
3,000
2,800
2,500
3,500
3,275
3,157
3,333
3,400
3,050
3,100
3,500
2,600
2,700
3,150
2,850
2,900
3,500
3,050
3,075
2,500
3,500
3,100
3,080
3,007
3,060
3,043
3,088
3,128
3,163
> 4,000
Notes and sources

24 Exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).
25 Quarterly exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).
| 77
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015

ANIF
Banco Bradesco
Banco de Bogot
Bancolombia
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Corficolombiana
CorpBanca Econmico
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
Santander
Standard Chartered
Telefnica Colombia
UBS
Ultraserfinco
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Current Account
% of GDP
2015
2016
-6.0
-5.2
-5.2
-6.2
-5.3
-6.2
-4.9
-6.4
-5.5
-6.2
-6.5
-6.6
-6.4
-6.0
-3.6
-6.5
-5.0
-6.9
-6.2
-6.5
-5.0
-6.4
-5.8
-5.8
-4.8
-6.6
-5.1
-6.2
-5.9
-6.0
-5.0
-6.5
-5.8
-6.1
-4.2
-6.3
-4.3
-5.3
-4.8
-5.7
-4.9
-5.8
-4.5
-6.6
-6.1
-6.0
-5.2
-5.9
-5.8
-6.1
-5.2
-6.1
-5.0
-6.0
-4.5
Trade Balance
USD bn
2015
2016
-9.5
-5.6
-9.8
-13.5
-8.8
-10.3
-4.5
-13.3
-9.0
-7.1
-6.1
-12.0
-11.0
-10.7
-3.4
-10.9
-8.2
-14.0
-7.5
-10.3
-8.2
-14.5
-11.1
-11.9
-9.0
-12.2
-11.0
-12.6
-7.6
-8.8
-4.2
-11.2
-9.3
-13.7
-10.6
-17.9
-13.5
-16.3
-13.0
-6.9
-5.2
-6.1
-6.1
-6.5
-3.6
-5.1
-5.2
-17.9
-7.1
-12.0
-12.0
-13.5
-3.4
-8.8
-8.5
-6.0
-6.0
-6.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-11.2
-10.4
-10.2
-7.2
-7.0
-6.5
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Colombia
Latin America
-8
2000
2005
2010
2015

-3
-4
-5
-6
2015
-7
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

75
50
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
25
-25
2000
2005
2010
2015

4
2015
2016
-4
Notes and sources

Bank (BanRep, Banco de la Republica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
-8
-12
-16
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 78
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015

Exports and Imports
ANIF
Banco Bradesco
Banco de Bogot
Bancolombia
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Corficolombiana
CorpBanca Econmico
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
Santander
Standard Chartered
Telefnica Colombia
UBS
Ultraserfinco
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Exports
USD bn
2015
2016
42.6
44.5
40.4
38.3
41.1
42.4
46.5
39.1
46.6
52.1
53.7
42.9
43.3
39.9
41.1
41.5
41.0
40.3
42.9
40.5
40.1
41.3
45.0
39.4
40.3
38.7
39.5
42.0
49.2
45.1
49.8
37.6
41.0
36.5
40.4
35.6
40.0
Imports
USD bn
2015
2016
52.1
50.1
50.2
51.8
49.9
52.7
51.0
52.4
55.6
59.2
59.8
54.9
54.3
50.6
44.5
52.4
49.2
50.6
51.1
55.0
51.2
53.2
54.0
51.6
51.2
51.3
47.1
50.8
53.4
56.2
59.1
51.3
51.6
54.5
53.9
51.9
53.0
35.6
52.1
40.4
40.9
39.5
53.7
42.0
43.7
50.2
59.2
52.1
52.8
44.5
59.8
51.4
52.2
42.8
43.8
45.4
46.4
47.8
49.4
53.7
54.1
55.6
53.5
54.8
55.9
60
40
Colombia
Latin America
20
0
-20
-40
2000
2005
2010
2015

80
2015
2016
70
60
50
40
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
40
20
-20
Colombia
-40
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

80
2015
2016
70
Notes and sources

60
50
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 79
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015

ANIF
Banco Bradesco
Banco de Bogot
Bancolombia
Barclays Capital
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Corficolombiana
CorpBanca Econmico
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Fedesarrollo
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
Santander
Standard Chartered
Telefnica Colombia
UBS
Ultraserfinco
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Int. Reserves
USD bn
2015
2016
47.0
45.9
46.1
46.1
46.8
46.2
47.4
45.9
45.9
45.4
45.8
46.8
47.5
47.9
46.3
46.3
47.3
48.0
46.1
47.9
46.7
46.2
44.6
44.4
46.1
44.7
47.1
47.1
46.5
46.5
46.0
44.5
46.9
46.6
47.3
47.5
External Debt
USD bn
2015
2016
104.7
107.8
102.7
111.4
112.3
123.2
107.3
107.2
106.3
107.0
107.2
111.8
104.0
108.6
104.3
95.4
110.0
115.6
117.4
131.5
112.0
115.5
44.6
47.5
46.6
46.5
44.4
48.0
46.3
46.3
102.7
117.4
107.2
108.0
95.4
131.5
111.4
112.3
46.6
46.3
46.3
46.2
46.0
46.2
109.2
103.8
104.2
114.1
107.4
109.5
12
Colombia
Latin America
10
4
2000
2005
2010
2015

53
50
47
2015
44
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

50
Colombia
Latin America
40
30
20
10
2000
2005
2010
2015

120
2015
2016
110
Notes and sources

100
90
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 80
FOCUSECONOMICS
Colombia
December 2015
Fact Sheet
General Data
Colombia in the Region
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Republic of Colombia
Bogot (6.3m)
Medelln (3.3m)
Cali (3.1m)
1,138,910
47.7
41.8
1.1
75.3
6.7
Spanish & Indigenous
Metric system
GMT-5
Area (km2):
Illiteracy rate (%, 2011 est.):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Colombia
7.9%
Colombia
6.3%
Other
18.1%
Other
26.5%
Venezuela
5.8%
Brazil
33.6%
Brazil
39.2%
Argentina
9.0%
Peru
5.2%
Argentina
7.0%
Mexico
21.6%
Mexico
19.8%
Economic Structure
14.8
104
51.7
9.3

100
2005-07
2009-11
2011-13

120
Agriculture
2005-07
2009-11
2011-13
100
Net Exports
80
Energy (2012)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
80
5,352
1,545
57.8
49.4
969
304
74.9
60
60
40
Other Industry
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Juan Manuel Santos

25 May 2014
May 2018
Jos Daro Uribe Escobar
Services
Other
12.0%

Panama
5.6%
Exports
Other
LatAm
21.0%
Outlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
Weaknesses
Political consensus on economic Vulnerability to downward shifts

in international commodity prices
policy
Consolidated financial system
Ongoing domestic armed conflict
Constitutional status with the aim Large shadow economy and
of controlling inflation
capital flight
.
U.S.A.
27.7%
Imports
Other
LatAm
14.9%
China
8.7%
Other
10.8%

Mexico
9.3%
U.S.A.
31.8%
Strengths
Private
Consumption
Trade Structure
Rating
Baa2
BBB
BBB
Government
Consumption
-20
India
5.1%
Agency
Moodys:
S&P:
Fitch Ratings:
40
20
20
836
874
141,374
24,725
Barranquilla, Buenaventura
Investment
Manufacturing

EU-27
13.4%
EU-27
15.8%
China
17.4%

Other Asia
ex-Japan
6.5%
Food
9.7%
Other
3.7%
Manufact.
Products
17.5%
Exports
Mineral
Fuels
69.1%
Mineral
Fuels
9.4%
Food
9.9%
Other
3.8%
Imports
Manufact.
Products
76.8%
| 81
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015
Mexico
Outlook moderates
Mexico
Mexicos economy continued to gain traction in the second half of the

GDP (USD bn):
GDP growth (%):
Inflation (%):
2011-13
117
1,207
10,307
3.1
-2.4
36.1
3.8
-1.6
19.0
Ricardo Aceves
Senior Economist
2014-16
121
1,198
9,897
2.5
-3.3
43.6
3.3
-2.4
24.3
2017-19
125
1,369
10,918
3.4
-2.5
47.9
3.6
-2.3
26.3
year. More complete data showed that GDP expanded 2.6% annually
in Q3, which was faster than the 2.4% increase observed in Q2. Q3s
result was also revised up from a previous preliminary estimate. Economic
growth continues to benefit from strong growth in agriculture and services,
particularly in transportation, business and financial services. Despite
headwinds from the U.S. manufacturing sector, business and operating
conditions in Mexicos manufacturing sector continued to improve in
November, reflecting faster output growth, lower inventories and higher
rates of employment. The economys vulnerable side continues to be the
external sector. Exports suffered another significant contraction in October
and the 12-month rolling trade deficit reached another multi-year high in
the same month.
After a modestly-disappointing 2015, in which falling oil production and

global headwinds dragged on economic growth, next year Mexicos
economy is expected to benefit from the recovery of the U.S. economy,
the implementation of structural reforms and strong domestic demand.
However, risks remain tilted to the downside in the form of low oil prices
and public spending cuts. Following an expected 2.4% expansion in 2015,
analysts surveyed this month by FocusEconomics see GDP increasing
2.8% in 2016. This months forecast was revised down from the 2.9%
increase projected last month.

Inflation remained stable at Septembers record-low 2.5% in October.
Banxico has scheduled a monetary policy decision for 17 December, in
which it is expected to act on the heels of the U.S. Fed, which will decide
on its interest rate policy on 15-16 December. Our panel of analysts
expects that inflation will end 2015 at 2.6%. In 2016, inflation is expected
to end the year at 3.4%.
REAL SECTOR | Revised data show faster economic growth in Q3
Mexicos economy gained momentum in the third quarter, according to
more complete data released by the National Statistical Institute (INEGI) on
20 November. GDP expanded 2.6% annually in Q3, which was revised up
from the 2.4% increase published in the preliminary estimate released on 30
October. In addition, Q3s expansion was faster than the revised 2.4% increase
observed in Q2 (previously reported: +2.2% year-on-year) and overshot the
2.4% rise the market had expected.
The improvement seen in Q3 reflects an upward revision in services. Services
increased 3.3% year-on-year in Q3, which was revised up from the 2.9% rise
published in the preliminary estimate. Growth in services was faster than the
3.1% expansion observed in Q2. Meanwhile, the industrial sector expanded
1.2% in Q3, which mirrored the flash estimate and marked a notable
improvement compared to the 0.6% expansion tallied in Q2. Conversely,
| 82
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
growth in agriculture in Q3 was revised down from the 4.6% reported in

the preliminary estimate to 4.1%. The reading, nonetheless, marked an
acceleration compared to the 2.6% rise registered in Q2.

6.0
Looking at seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter data, Mexicos GDP

expanded a revised 0.8% in Q3 (previously reported: +0.6% quarter-onquarter), which represented a faster increase compared to the 0.6% expansion
tallied in Q2.
4.0
%
2.0
0.0
Q4 2011
December 2015
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.

Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
In November, the Central Bank (Banxico) revised Mexicos growth forecasts

and now expects the economy to grow between 1.9% and 2.4% this year
(previous estimate: between 1.7% and 2.5%). For 2016, the Bank left its
projections unchanged and sees the economy growing between 2.5% and
3.5%. The government expects the economy to grow between 2.0% and 2.8%
in 2015. For 2016, the government predicts economic growth of between
2.6% and 3.6%.
According to the latest survey of analysts for the LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast, panelists see the economy increasing 2.4% in 2015, which is up
0.1 percentage points from last months forecast. For 2016, the panel expects
growth to pick up to 2.8%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last
months Consensus.
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing data confirm signs of improvement in Q4
Despite headwinds from the U.S. manufacturing sector, Mexicos manufacturing
sector continued to improve. The seasonally-adjusted manufacturing indicator
elaborated by the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) rose from
51.6 in October to 52.1 in November. The reading marked a second consecutive
improvement and the highest level in four months. Novembers result, which
was virtually in line with the 52.0 reading the market had expected, pushed
the indicator further above the 50-threshold that indicates that growth in the
manufacturing sector is gaining momentum.
Manufacturing Index
According to IMEF, the improvement seen in November reflected a faster

increase in manufacturing output. Due to the increase in production,
manufacturing firms increased staff, which prompted the employment subindicator to rise to a seven-month high. Also due to an increase in demand,
manufacturers reported that their inventories levels decreased in November
compared to the previous month and their supplier delivery times improved.
Only the new orders sub-category did not see an improvement in November,
with the sub-indicator falling to the lowest level in nine months.
60
55
50
IMEF Manufacturing PMI
Markit Manufacturing PMI
45
Nov-12
U.S. Manufacturing Index

May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
Note: Composite index in the manufacturing report on business (PMI) for

the U.S. and seasonally-adjusted manufacturing index for Mexico. Markit
Manufacturing PMI. Readings above 50 points indicate an expansion in the
manufacturing sector while readings below 50 points indicate to a contraction.
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Mexican Institute of
Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas) and
Markit.
The less-positive performance observed in the sub-indicator of new orders

mainly reflects a deterioration in the U.S. manufacturing sector. The ISM
manufacturing index declined from 50.1 in October to 48.6 in November,
falling under the 50-threshold that distinguishes expansion from contraction in
the sector for the first time since November 2012 and marking the lowest level
since June 2009, during the recession.
Another indicator that measures performance in the manufacturing sector
the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)showed that
conditions remained stable at a healthy level in November. The PMI stabilized
in November at Octobers 53.0. As this marks the highest level in five months,
it continued to indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector. According to
Markit, the latest survey showed a solid expansion in production volumes as
well as incoming work. The increase in output marked the fastest rate since
| 83
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015
April. Markit stated that new orders continued to rise in November, although
the pace of expansion was the slowest in eight months as exports demand
remained a drag on overall growth in economic activity. In the case of
Markits survey, manufacturers were more cautious about their job hiring and
their stocks level. Markit concluded that the November data indicated that,
Mexicos manufacturing sector remains on track to achieve a solid rebound
in output growth during the final quarter of 2015. Latest data indicated the
fastest expansion of production levels for seven months, helped by robust
new business gains in November.
According to the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel, Mexican
industrial production will increase 1.6% in 2015, which is unchanged over the
previous months projection. The panel of analysts surveyed this month by
FocusEconomics see industrial production expanding 2.8% in 2016, which is
also unchanged from last months forecast.
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence rises for third month in a row
The mood among Mexican consumers continued to increase in November.
According to the unadjusted index of consumer confidence elaborated by
INEGI, the indicator rose from 91.3 in October to 92.5 in November. The
reading overshot the 92.0 that the markets had expected, marked a third
consecutive increase and reached the highest point since July.
Consumer Confidence
105
100
95
90
85
80
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
Note: Consumer confidence index (ICC, Indicador de Confianza del

Consumidor). January 2003=100.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).
Novembers improvement reflected that consumers were more enthusiastic

regarding their economic prospects in the next 12 months. Regarding their
current economic situation, consumers were as optimistic as they were in
October. About the countrys current economic situation, consumers notably
showed more optimism; but regarding the countrys economic outlook,
consumers were more pessimistic than in the previous month. According to
analysts, strong consumer fundamentalslow unemployment, multi-year low
inflation and higher nominal wagesare providing a boost to confidence and
thus to private consumption.
Panelists participating in this months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect
private consumption to grow 3.0% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points
from last months projections. For 2016, the panel sees private consumption
expanding 3.1%, which is unchanged from last months estimate.

2.0
5.0
1.0
4.0
0.0
3.0

-1.0

Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.

2.0
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation remains stable at record low

Mexicos consumer prices rose 0.51% in October over the previous month,
which came in above the 0.37% increase observed in September, but fell short
of the 0.54% rise the markets had expected. The National Statistics Institute
(INEGI) reported that the monthly increase resulted from higher prices for food
as well as for energy. Energy prices jumped in October due to the elimination
of the summer energy subsidy. Meanwhile, prices for services, in particular for
telecommunications continued to fall.
Despite the monthly increase, inflation stabilized at Septembers 2.5% in
October and thus remained at the lowest level on record. Since the beginning
of the year, inflation has lost half a percentage point, remaining well below the
Central Banks (Banxico) target of 3.0%.
Meanwhile, the closely watched core consumer priceswhich exclude
volatile categories such as fresh food and energy and also provide more
information regarding knock-on effect from the currency weakening in recent
monthsrose 0.25% in October over the previous month, which was down
| 84
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015
from Septembers 0.37% increase. Annual core inflation in October inched up

from 2.4% in September to 2.5%.
The Central Bank (Banxico) expects inflation to end 2015 below 3.0%,
amid slack in domestic demand. For 2016, the Central Bank sees inflation
converging to around 3.0%. Panelists surveyed by FocusEconomics this
month expect inflation to end 2015 at 2.6%, which is down 0.2 percentage
points over last months forecast. For 2016, the panel sees year-end inflation
at 3.4%, which is unchanged over the previous months foreast.
Remittances - U.S. Payrolls | variation in %

30
15.0
15
10.0
5.0
-15
0.0
Remittances (yoy, left scale)
-30
Oct-10
U.S. payrolls construction sector (yoy, right scale)

Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
-5.0
Oct-15
Note: Year-on-year variation of remittances from Mexican workers abroad and

U.S. non-farm payrolls.
Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) and U.S. Bureau of Labor.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Growth in remittances slows in October but

overall level remains high
October represented another month of growth for Mexicos remittances.
However, the pace of expansion in transactions slowed sharply. Remittances
totaled USD 2.1 billion in October, which was in line with market expectations.
The result represented a 1.7% year-on-year increase and marked a notable
slowdown compared to the 4.6% rise registered in the previous month.
Remittances from Mexicans abroad continue to be supported by the gradual
improvement in the U.S. labor market, in particular in the construction sector.
U.S. payrolls in the construction sector, which is a proxy of hiring dynamics
in the labor market with a high proportion of Mexican workers, jumped in
November, increasing at the fastest rate since February.
The rolling 12-month sum of remittances totaled USD 24.7 billion in October,
which represented a 6.4% increase over the same period last year. The
increase followed the 6.9% expansion tallied in the 12 months up to
September. As there is more evidence that the U.S. labor market is gradually
improving, remittances are slowly approaching pre-crisis levels and the peak
that occurred in 2007, when they totaled USD 26.1 billion.
Analysts who participated in this months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
panel continue to take these developments into account and expect
remittances to reach USD 24.9 billion in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees
remittances rising to USD 26.1 billion.
Merchandise Trade
5
6
%
-5
-10

-15
Oct-12

Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
-3
Oct-15
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports contract for four consecutive months,

12-month trade deficit at record high
Mexicos trade balance incurred a deficit of USD 1.4 billion in October. The
reading came in below the miniscule USD 64 million shortfall registered in
the same month last year yet it mirrored the USD 1.4 billion deficit tallied in
September. Octobers deficit was, nevertheless, smaller than the USD 1.8
billion deficit that the market had expected.
The trade deficit in October drove the 12-month rolling shortfall to USD 12.7
billion (September: USD 11.4 billion deficit), which represented the highest
deficit since September 2009. The widening of the accumulated trade deficit
has been mainly driven by a deterioration in the oil trade balance, which has
already surpassed the USD 8.0 billion deficit in the past 12 monthsthe worst
reading on record.
Exports suffered another significant contraction in October. Mexicos overseas
sales totaled USD 34.2 billion in October, which marked a 7.4% contraction
in year-on-year terms. The drop was faster than Septembers 5.6% decrease
and marked a fourth consecutive month of decline. Novembers drop stemmed
mainly from a 41.5% year-on-year contraction in oil exports, while non-oil
| 85
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015
exports fell only 4.1%. Meanwhile, imports registered USD 35.6 billion in
October, which represented a 3.6% decrease over the same month last year.
Panelists surveyed by FocusEconomics for this months LatinFocus report
expect exports to contract 0.8% this year and fall to USD 394 billion, while
imports are expected to rise 1.4% and reach USD 406 billion in 2015. For
2016, the panel expects exports and imports to increase 4.7% and 4.7%
respectively.
| 86
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015

Annual Data
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (MXN bn)
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop)
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop)
External Sector
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Remittances (USD bn)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
114
9,201
1,052
13,282
9.8
5.1
5.1
5.7
1.3
4.6
-0.1
5.3
-2.8
33.5
116
10,107
1,169
14,550
9.5
4.0
4.0
4.8
7.8
3.4
1.7
5.2
-2.4
34.9
117
10,147
1,188
15,627
7.4
4.0
3.9
4.9
4.8
2.9
4.1
4.9
-2.6
35.2
118
10,666
1,263
16,116
3.1
1.4
1.5
2.3
-1.6
-0.6
1.1
4.9
-2.3
38.3
120
10,824
1,296
17,252
7.0
2.3
1.6
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.7
4.8
-3.2
41.9
121
9,435
1,142
18,149
5.2
2.4
2.7
3.0
4.2
1.6
4.8
4.4
-3.5
43.8
122
9,431
1,155
19,237
6.0
2.8
3.0
3.1
4.4
2.8
3.7
4.2
-3.1
45.0
124
10,062
1,246
20,498
6.6
3.1
3.3
3.3
4.8
3.0
4.2
4.0
-2.8
46.4
125
10,880
1,363
21,921
6.9
3.4
3.6
3.5
5.4
3.4
4.5
4.0
-2.5
47.9
127
11,812
1,497
23,524
7.3
3.6
4.0
3.7
5.9
3.8
4.9
3.9
-2.2
49.4
8.0
4.4
4.2
4.50
4.89
6.96
12.36
12.63
11.9
3.8
3.4
4.50
4.80
6.51
13.95
12.44
8.4
3.6
4.1
4.50
4.84
5.29
12.87
13.16
8.8
4.0
3.8
3.50
3.79
6.45
13.04
12.76
10.9
4.1
4.0
3.00
3.30
5.83
14.75
13.31
2.6
2.8
3.22
3.45
6.12
16.73
15.89
3.4
3.2
3.95
4.12
6.46
16.63
16.65
3.5
3.4
4.50
4.62
6.63
16.26
16.44
3.6
3.6
5.08
5.10
6.80
15.90
16.08
3.7
3.7
5.66
5.57
6.97
15.53
15.71
-0.5
-4.9
-3.0
298
301
29.9
28.6
26.2
21.3
114
4.5
194
18.4
-1.1
-13.2
-1.4
349
351
17.1
16.4
23.4
22.8
143
4.9
210
18.0
-1.3
-15.9
0.0
371
371
6.1
5.7
19.7
22.4
164
5.3
223
18.8
-2.4
-29.7
-1.2
380
381
2.5
2.8
45.2
22.3
177
5.6
255
20.2
-1.9
-24.0
-2.8
397
400
4.5
4.9
25.1
23.7
193
5.8
282
21.8
-2.6
-30.1
-11.6
394
406
-0.8
1.4
24.9
173
5.1
281
24.6
-2.7
-31.2
-12.0
412
424
4.7
4.7
26.1
177
5.0
306
26.5
-2.5
-31.4
-11.2
444
455
7.7
7.3
26.7
188
5.0
342
27.4
-2.3
-31.5
-10.7
485
496
9.3
9.0
27.3
197
4.8
359
26.3
-2.1
-31.5
-10.6
538
549
10.9
10.6
27.9
205
4.5
376
25.1
Quarterly Data
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop)
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop)
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Q3 14
2.3
0.6
2.2
4.3
2.9
3.3
5.3
4.2
3.00
3.29
6.11
13.43
13.12
-0.9
-3.1
-1.7
101
103
Q4 14
2.6
0.7
2.7
5.8
2.9
3.0
4.4
4.1
3.00
3.30
5.83
14.75
13.90
-1.5
-5.1
-0.8
103
104
Q1 15
2.5
0.5
3.2
5.3
1.7
5.3
4.2
3.1
3.00
3.30
5.90
15.26
14.95
-2.8
-8.3
-2.2
90
93
Q2 15
2.4
0.6
3.0
5.5
0.7
4.7
4.4
2.9
3.00
3.30
6.06
15.74
15.32
-2.5
-7.6
-1.9
98
100
Q3 15
2.6
0.8
2.8
3.6
1.2
5.7
4.6
2.5
3.00
3.33
6.06
16.92
16.44
-3.2
-8.9
-6.5
96
103
Q4 15
2.3
3.0
3.1
2.4
4.1
4.3
2.6
3.22
3.45
6.12
16.73
16.82
-2.6
-7.4
-3.2
104
107
Q1 16
2.5
2.7
4.1
1.9
3.9
4.4
3.1
3.43
3.67
6.25
16.65
16.69
-3.1
-8.7
-3.8
96
100
Q2 16
2.8
3.2
3.8
2.6
4.2
4.3
3.4
3.69
3.89
6.32
16.65
16.65
-2.7
-7.7
-2.4
104
106
Q3 16
2.8
3.2
4.5
2.6
3.6
4.4
3.4
3.83
4.09
6.40
16.64
16.65
-2.6
-7.6
-5.2
104
110
Q4 16
2.9
3.4
4.4
2.6
3.3
4.2
3.4
3.95
4.12
6.46
16.63
16.63
-2.3
-6.8
-3.0
111
114
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (IGAE, annual var. in %)
Consumer Conf. Index (100-point threshold)
IMEF Manufacturing Index (50-pt threshold)
Remittances (annual var. in %)
Feb-15
2.6
2.0
5.6
4.3
90.3
50.2
0.19
3.0
14.95
-2.4
7.2
Mar-15
2.7
1.9
5.5
3.9
93.1
50.4
0.41
3.1
15.26
2.7
7.4
Apr-15
2.2
1.6
4.7
4.3
91.3
51.9
-0.26
3.1
15.35
-3.2
1.5
May-15
1.4
-0.9
4.2
4.5
92.0
52.6
-0.50
2.9
15.38
-8.8
2.0
Jun-15
3.3
1.3
5.4
4.4
94.7
53.1
0.17
2.9
15.74
1.2
5.5
Jul-15
2.0
0.9
5.8
4.7
92.2
52.4
0.15
2.7
16.11
-2.6
11.8
Aug-15
2.7
1.1
6.4
4.7
90.4
51.7
0.21
2.6
16.75
-6.7
12.4
Sep-15
3.1
1.7
4.9
4.5
90.6
50.9
0.37
2.5
16.92
-5.6
4.6
Oct-15 Nov-15
4.6
91.3
92.5
51.6
52.1
0.51
2.5
16.50
16.57
-7.4
1.7
-
| 87
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %
10
2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %

6
Mexico
Mexico
Latin America
World
Latin America
World
2
0
-5
2000
2005
2010
-2
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
< 1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
> 4.5
American Chamber Mexico
Banamex-Citigroup
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
CEESP
CIDE
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IMEF
ING
INVEX
Ita BBA
Jonathan Heath & Associates
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Monex
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Thorne & Associates
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Vector Casa de Bolsa
Ve Por Ms
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Government (Sep. 2015)
IMF (Oct. 2015)
2015
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.2
2016
2.8
2.8
3.1
2.5
2.5
3.1
2.5
3.0
2.5
2.6
3.0
2.7
2.8
2.5
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.5
3.3
2.9
2.7
3.5
3.5
2.8
2.0
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.1
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.0
3.5
2.8
2.8
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.9
2.9
3.0
1.9-2.4
2.0-2.8
2.3
2.5-3.5
2.6-3.6
2.8
Notes and sources

General:
the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y
Geografia). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
| 88
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015

Banamex-Citigroup
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
CEESP
CIDE
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IMEF
ING
INVEX
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Monex
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Thorne & Associates
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Ve Por Ms
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Consumption
variation in %
2015
2016
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.5
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.1
3.0
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.7
3.2
3.2
3.0
2.7
3.0
2.9
3.3
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.4
3.4
2.8
3.1
3.2
3.5
2.7
2.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
2.9
3.1
3.3
Investment
variation in %
2015
2016
4.9
6.9
5.0
5.8
4.5
5.0
3.4
3.6
3.5
4.0
3.5
0.2
4.0
4.5
4.4
3.3
4.4
4.6
3.7
5.0
5.0
4.2
3.5
4.5
4.9
3.9
5.0
7.3
2.7
3.1
3.9
4.4
4.1
3.8
5.0
5.5
3.7
4.6
4.3
4.1
4.6
3.4
2.4
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.3
3.5
3.1
3.1
2.7
5.0
4.3
4.2
0.2
7.3
4.4
4.4
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.1
4.3
4.1
4.1
4.5
4.3
4.7
10
-5
Mexico
-10
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

4.0
3.5
3.0
2015
2.5
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
20
Mexico
Latin America
10
-10
2000
2005
2010
2015

7
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Institute
of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
2015
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 89
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015

10
-5
Mexico
Latin America
-10
2000
2005
2010
2015

5
2
2015
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

10
4
Mexico
2
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
Banamex-Citigroup
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
CEESP
CIDE
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IMEF
ING
INVEX
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Monex
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Thorne & Associates
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Ve Por Ms
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Industry
variation in %
2015
2016
1.6
2.9
1.3
2.9
1.2
2.1
1.5
2.4
1.1
2.2
3.3
3.3
1.9
2.5
1.6
1.9
1.6
2.6
1.2
2.3
1.5
3.4
1.3
2.8
1.6
3.7
1.3
2.8
3.0
4.0
1.1
2.5
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2015
2016
4.4
3.9
4.6
4.4
4.2
3.7
4.4
4.6
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.0
4.3
4.0
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.2
4.1
4.5
4.6
4.3
4.6
4.3
3.9
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.4
3.8
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.8
4.6
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.1
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.4
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2016
2015
-3.0
-3.5
-3.5
-3.0
-2.9
-3.0
-3.6
-3.0
-3.5
-3.1
-3.5
-3.0
-4.0
-3.5
-3.5
-3.0
-3.2
-3.1
-3.5
-3.2
-3.8
-3.3
-3.5
-3.0
-3.9
-3.8
-3.5
-3.0
-3.5
-3.0
-3.5
-3.0
-3.5
-3.0
-3.5
-3.0
-3.5
-3.0
-3.5
-3.0
-4.0
-3.5
-3.4
-3.4
-3.5
-3.2
-3.5
-3.0
-3.1
-2.8
-4.3
-3.4
-3.5
-3.0
1.1
3.3
1.5
1.6
1.9
4.0
2.7
2.8
4.2
4.8
4.4
4.4
3.7
4.6
4.3
4.2
-4.3
-2.9
-3.5
-3.5
-3.8
-2.8
-3.0
-3.1
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.8
2.8
3.1
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.3
-3.5
-3.6
-3.5
-3.1
-3.2
-3.2
2015

2
-2
Notes and sources
-4
-6
-8
2000
Mexico
Latin America
2005
2010
2015
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Institute of
Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia) and the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de
Mexico). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INEGI.
12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEGI.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Banxico.
| 90
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %
20
20
Mexico
Latin America
15
10
10
2005
2010
0
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

5

5
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Mexico
Latin America
15
0
2000
15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
< 1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
> 5.0
Banamex-Citigroup
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
CEESP
CIDE
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IMEF
ING
INVEX
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Monex
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Thorne & Associates
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Ve Por Ms
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
2015
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.9
2.5
2.9
2.9
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.3
2.5
3.0
2.3
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.1
2016
3.1
3.4
3.0
3.3
3.8
3.5
3.0
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.1
3.5
3.1
3.6
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.3
4.5
2.8
3.5
3.3
2.1
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.8
4.5
3.4
3.4
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.4
3.5
3.5
<3.0
2.6
~3.0
3.0
Notes and sources

from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica
y Geografia). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
| 91
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015

19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %
20

12
Mexico
Mexico
Latin America
Latin America
15
8
10
4
5
0
2000
2005
2010
0
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

5

8
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
< 2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
Banamex-Citigroup
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
CEESP
CIDE
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IMEF
ING
INVEX
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Monex
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Thorne & Associates
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Ve Por Ms
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
3.30
3.25
3.00
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.00
3.00
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.50
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.00
3.25
3.25
3.00
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.50
3.25
2016
4.30
3.75
3.50
3.50
4.25
3.50
4.00
4.75
4.00
3.75
3.75
4.00
4.00
4.25
3.75
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.00
3.25
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.75
3.75
3.00
3.50
3.25
3.22
3.25
4.75
4.00
3.95
3.19
3.22
3.33
4.03
4.10
4.18
> 5.50
Notes and sources

are from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de Mexico). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
19 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
20 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
| 92
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015

24 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
25 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD

17
17
16
15
15
13
14
11
13
9
2000
2005
2010
12
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
26 | MXN per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

20
27 | MXN per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

20
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
Jul
Oct
Jan
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Apr
Jul
12
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
28 | MXN per USD 2016 | Panelist Distribution

60%
40%
20%
0%
< 13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
Banamex-Citigroup
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
CEESP
CIDE
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IMEF
ING
INVEX
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Monex
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Thorne & Associates
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Ve Por Ms
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
16.89
16.90
17.00
16.50
16.70
16.50
17.00
16.98
16.39
16.80
16.70
17.07
15.84
16.75
17.00
16.80
16.91
16.95
17.00
16.61
17.00
16.25
17.05
16.93
16.40
16.00
17.09
17.00
16.10
2016
16.52
16.80
17.50
15.90
15.90
17.00
16.50
16.90
16.47
18.20
16.30
16.93
15.60
16.90
16.50
16.30
16.90
16.40
17.50
16.38
17.10
17.11
17.25
17.09
15.80
16.50
16.60
15.00
16.30
15.84
17.09
16.89
16.73
15.00
18.20
16.52
16.63
16.79
16.72
16.48
16.50
16.49
16.36
> 20.00
Notes and sources

24 Exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
25 Quarterly exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
| 93
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015

Banamex-Citigroup
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
CEESP
CIDE
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IMEF
ING
INVEX
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Monex
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Thorne & Associates
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Ve Por Ms
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Current Account
% of GDP
2015
2016
-2.8
-2.7
-2.6
-3.0
-3.0
-2.4
-2.9
-3.0
-2.6
-3.2
-3.1
-3.1
-2.5
-2.0
-2.9
-3.0
-2.4
-2.7
-1.9
-2.5
-2.5
-2.7
-2.5
-2.3
-2.3
-2.1
-2.8
-2.6
-2.5
-2.6
-2.6
-2.6
-2.5
-2.5
-2.8
-2.9
-2.8
-3.1
-2.7
-2.5
-2.8
-2.9
-2.5
-2.5
-2.6
-2.5
-2.4
-2.3
-2.9
-2.9
-2.0
-2.0
-2.3
-2.7
-3.6
-4.3
Trade Balance
USD bn
2015
2016
-11.5
-10.6
-14.1
-20.8
-11.3
0.7
-4.5
-5.1
-15.6
-18.2
-16.0
-26.0
-11.1
-8.2
-9.5
-9.5
-13.6
-10.2
-14.9
-14.3
-13.0
-10.6
-13.1
-13.6
-10.3
-10.4
-10.3
-12.1
-5.4
-5.7
-5.1
-6.9
-13.3
-11.1
-11.2
-11.1
-16.2
-24.4
-3.6
-1.9
-2.6
-2.6
-4.3
-2.0
-2.6
-2.7
-16.2
-4.5
-11.5
-11.6
-26.0
0.7
-10.6
-12.0
-2.6
-2.5
-2.5
-2.6
-2.5
-2.4
-10.3
-8.9
-8.5
-10.6
-7.9
-8.2
-2
Mexico
-4
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
2015
-3.0
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

600
Trade Balance
Imports
Exports
400
200
-200
2000
2005
2010
2015

0
2015
2016
-5
Notes and sources
-10
Bank (Banxico, Banco de Mexico). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
-15
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 94
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015

Exports and Imports
Banamex-Citigroup
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
CEESP
CIDE
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IMEF
ING
INVEX
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Monex
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Thorne & Associates
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Ve Por Ms
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Exports
USD bn
2015
2016
386
405
390
420
392
430
405
419
393
419
391
399
415
437
390
402
388
406
391
408
385
394
384
396
408
434
368
362
420
445
418
454
391
412
389
394
383
401
Imports
USD bn
2015
2016
397
416
404
441
403
429
410
424
409
437
407
425
426
445
399
411
401
416
406
422
398
405
397
410
418
444
378
374
425
451
423
461
404
423
400
405
399
425
368
420
391
394
362
454
408
412
378
426
404
406
374
461
424
424
398
402
402
420
426
429
409
410
411
430
433
437
40
20
-20
Mexico
Latin America
-40
2000
2005
2010
2015

500
450
400
2015
350
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
40
20
-20
Mexico
Latin America
-40
2000
2005
2010
2015

500
475
450
Notes and sources

425
400
2015
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 95
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015

Banamex-Citigroup
Banco Bradesco
Barclays Capital
BBVA Bancomer
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
CEESP
CIDE
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
GBM Securities
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IMEF
ING
INVEX
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Monex
Nomura
Oxford Economics
Prognosis
Thorne & Associates
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
UBS
Ve Por Ms
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Int. Reserves
USD bn
2015
2016
172
174
170
165
180
184
167
169
180
192
170
175
183
192
170
172
173
176
170
180
170
170
174
176
170
172
175
175
170
180
175
181
-
External Debt
USD bn
2015
2016
275
311
305
328
258
263
300
315
313
355
270
319
262
257
247
286
300
318
-
167
183
171
173
165
192
175
177
247
313
275
281
257
355
315
306
180
184
191
184
191
197
281
282
284
308
307
308
10
Mexico
Latin America
2
2000
2005
2010
2015

240
210
180
2015
150
Jul
Oct
Jan
2016
Apr
Jul
Oct

40
Mexico
Latin America
30
20
10
2000
2005
2010
2015

320
300
Notes and sources
280
260
2015
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
2016
Oct
| 96
FOCUSECONOMICS
Mexico
December 2015
Fact Sheet
General Data
Mexico in the Region
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
United Mexican States

Mexico City (20.4m)
Guadalajara (4.5m)
Monterrey (4.2m)
1,964,375
120
60.9
1.2
75.4
6.5
Spanish and Indigenous
Metric system
GMT-6 to GMT-8
Area (km2):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Mexico
19.8%
Mexico
21.5%
Other
18.0%
Other
26.5%
Venezuela
6.1%
Colombia
6.3%
Peru
5.2%
Argentina
7.0%
Argentina
9.0%
Brazil
33.6%
Colombia
7.9%
Brazil
39.1%
Economic Structure
16.8
85.8
43.5
11.1

100
2005-07
2008-10
2011-13

120
Agriculture
2005-07
2008-10
2011-13
100
Net Exports
80
Energy (2012)
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
80
8,713
7,754
279
234
2,936
2,086
454
60
60
40
Other Industry
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Enrique Pea Nieto

1 July 2012
July 2018
Agustn Carstens Carstens
Services
LatAm
7.2%

EU-27

5.1%

Other
8.9%
Other
15.8%

Weaknesses
Commitment to sound fiscal

policy
Dependence on the U.S.

economy
Large domestic market

NAFTA membership shields the
economy from emerging markets
crises
Financial sector still relatively

weak
Instability created by drugrelated violence
China
16.1%
Exports
Outlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
Strengths
Private
Consumption
Trade Structure
Rating
A3
BBB+
BBB+
Government
Consumption
-20
U.S.A.
78.8%
Agency
Moodys:
S&P:
Fitch Ratings:
40
20
20
1,714
17,166
377,660
2,900
Veracruz, Lzaro Crdenas
Investment
Manufacturing
Imports
Other Asia
ex-Japan
8.1% EU-27

10.9%
U.S.A.
49.1%
Mineral
Fuels
14.6%
Food
Mineral 6.6%
Fuels
9.2%
Other
Food
4.9%
6.2%
Other
6.2%
Exports
Manufact.
Products
74.3%
Imports
Manufact.
Products
77.9%
| 97
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015
Peru
Outlook moderates
Peru
The Peruvian economy held its ground with a 2.9% annual expansion in

GDP (USD bn):
GDP growth (%):
Inflation (%):
2011-13
30.5
189
6,188
6.1
1.7
20.7
3.3
-2.9
29.7
2014-16
31.9
196
6,137
2.8
-1.6
21.2
3.4
-3.8
33.4
2017-19
33.4
215
6,440
4.3
-1.3
22.3
2.8
-3.0
34.4
the third quarter. Growth in Q3 was driven by stronger private consumption

and rising exports, which compensated for a pullback in government
spending and contracting investment. Higher output in the mining sector
amid a surge in production of copper, Perus main export, drove export
growth in Q3. Copper production is up more than 15% so far this year.
However, subdued global demand and weak prices for commodities
will continue to offset increased mining export volumes and hinder the
external sector in the near term. Government spending is expected to
accelerate ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for April of next
year, although investment growth will likely remain on a slow track as
business confidence hovers at multi-year lows.
Despite a challenging domestic and external environment, the economy

should grow more this year compared to 2014. Panelists participating
in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect the economy to expand
2.7% in 2015. The longer-term outlook is more favorable, with investment
and exports set to rebound. Panelists see the economy growing 3.4% in
2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last months forecast.
Inflation increased from 3.7% in October to 4.2% in November. The Central

Bank kept its reference rate unchanged at 3.50% at its 12 November
meeting. While inflation remains well above target, the looming interest
rate hike in the U.S. deterred the Central Bank from making a move.
Panelists project year-end inflation of 3.8% for 2015 and of 3.2% for 2016.
REAL SECTOR | GDP holds ground amid strong private consumption

and export recovery
GDP expanded 2.9% in Q3 over the same quarter of last year. The result was
broadly in line with the 3.0% increase observed in Q2, which had marked
the strongest growth in five quarters. The Q3 result fell just short of market
expectations of a 3.0% rise and reflects that stronger private consumption and
a recovery in export growth made up for a pullback in government spending
and falling investment.
Carl Kelly
Economist

9.0
6.0
%
3.0
0.0
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-onyear variation %.

Source: Peru National Statistical Institute (INEI) and LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
Domestic demand grew 2.5% in Q3, which was just below the 2.7% increase
tallied in Q2. Private consumption expanded 3.4% in Q3 (Q2: +3.3% year-onyear). Government spending expanded a solid 4.2% annually in Q3, although
this was well below the 9.1% increase tallied in Q2. Total investment contracted
0.3% in Q3, which followed the 1.1% decrease in Q2. Total investment was
dragged down by fixed investment, which fell 4.5% (Q2: -9.3% yoy).
On the external front, exports of goods and services in Q3 expanded 2.9%
over the same quarter last year (Q2: +0.7% yoy). Exports had not increased
this much since Q1 2014. Increased output in the mining sector, despite weak
external demand, helped buoy export growth in Q3. Meanwhile, imports
| 98
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015
increased 1.3% in Q3, which contrasted the 0.4% decrease registered in

Q2. Consequently, the external sectors net contribution to overall economic
growth improved from 0.2 percentage points in Q2 to 0.4 percentage points
in Q3.
Sequential data show that GDP in Q3 grew 0.6% over the previous quarter,
which was below the 1.1% increase observed in Q2.
The Central Bank sees the economy expanding 3.1% in 2015 and 4.2% in
2016. The panelists who participated in this months LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast survey expect GDP to expand 2.7% in 2015, which is down 0.1
percentage points from last months projection. For 2016, the panel expects
the economy to grow 3.4%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last
months estimate.
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence moderates in November
In November, the consumer confidence indicator published by GfK decreased
to 89 points from the 91 points tallied in October. The index has been below
the 100-point threshold that separates optimistic from pessimistic territory
since September 2014.
Consumer Confidence Index

110
100
90
80
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
Note: Consumer Confidence Index (ICC, Indice de Confianza del Consumidor).

Values above 100 indicate optimistic consumer sentiment while values below 100
indicate pessimistic sentiment.
Source: GfK Peru.
According to the survey report, consumers outlook regarding their own

situation as well as that of the country in the next 12 months moderated in
November. Consumers were also less optimistic about employment and
savings prospects. Sentiment weakened significantly across lower-income
brackets, but strengthened among higher-income earners. Moreover,
consumer confidence was up slightly in Lima but declined outside of the
capital in November.
Consensus Forecast panelists expect total consumption to expand 3.6% in
2015, which is unchanged from last months estimate. For 2016, panelists
expect total consumption to grow 3.5%, which is also unchanged from last
months forecast.
OUTLOOK | Business sentiment ticks up again in October, but remains
stuck in pessimistic territory
Business Confidence Index

70
Business confidence came in at 45.0 points in October, according to the

Central Banks business confidence indicator. The result was an improvement
compared to the 43.2 points registered in September and marked the
strongest result in three months. However, business confidence is still below
the 50-point threshold that separates optimistic from pessimistic territory.
60
50
40
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Note: Business Confidence Index (Indice de Confianza Empresarial).Values

above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in business climate while values
below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
Businesses had slightly higher expectations for the economy in the next three
months as well as for the coming twelve months. They also had moderately
stronger expectations regarding their particular sectors and their own
businesses in the following months. Opinions regarding the current business
and financial situation also registered modest gains.
Panelists surveyed for this months LatinFocus report expect fixed investment
to fall 3.3% this year, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last months
forecast. For 2016, panel participants see investment growing 1.3%, which is
down 0.1 percentage points from last months forecast.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation jumps further above target in November
Consumer prices for Metropolitan Lima increased 0.35% in November over
the previous month, which was above the 0.14% rise registered in October.
| 99
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru

1.0
5.0
December 2015
This was also stronger than the 0.15% increase expected by the market. The
result was driven almost entirely by higher prices for food and beverages.
Prices for goods such as potatoes increased amid a disruption to agricultural
production due to adverse weather conditions associated with El Nio.

0.5
4.0
%
%
0.0
-0.5
Nov-13
3.0
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
2.0
Nov-15
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %.

Source: Peru National Statistical Institute (INEI).
Inflation increased from 3.7% in October to 4.2% in November. Consequently,

inflation moved further above the upper limit of the Central Banks target of
2.0% plus/minus 1.0 percentage points. The weak Peruvian sol is contributing
to inflationary pressures, and above-target inflation led the Central Bank to
hike its main interest rate in September for the first time in more than four
years. The Bank held its rate in October and November but the latest inflation
result may prompt another hike at the meeting scheduled for 10 December.
In its September quarterly inflation report, the Central Bank indicated that it
expects inflation to be between 3.5% and 4.0% in 2015 and between 2.5%
and 3.0% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect
inflation to end 2015 at 3.8%, which is unchanged from last months projection.
For 2016, the panel expects inflation of 3.2%, which is also unchanged from
last months estimate.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank holds interest rate at 3.50% in
November amid moderating inflation and expected Fed rate hike
The Central Bank decided to keep the reference rate at 3.50% at its 12
November monetary policy session, meeting market expectations. The Bank
hiked the rate from 3.25% to its current level in a surprise move at its meeting
in September, but refrained from making a move in October and now in
November amid expectations that inflation will moderate going forward and
an upcoming interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

5.0
4.0
%
3.0
2.0
1.0
Note: Central Bank Reference Rate in %.

According to the Central Bank, inflation pressures have fallen somewhat and
the impact of higher prices for food and currency depreciation is diminishing.
However, inflation increased from 3.7% in October to 4.2% in November,
which far exceeds the upper limit of the banks target range of 1.0%3.0%.
Nonetheless, the Bank stated that inflation expectations converge toward the
target and monetary authorities are confident that the current interest rate will
help reduce inflation further.
The Central Bank explained that the Peruvian economy continues to perform
below potential, but that that a gradual recovery is underway. The Bank
expects further improvements going forward and foresees the economy
performing close to its potential next year. As for international developments,
the Bank noted that there were mixed signals regarding the recovery of
the global economy and that there is still volatility in foreign exchange and
financial markets.
The Bank had noted after its rate hike in September and again in October
that it was not embarking on a tightening cycle, but would consider further
adjustments if inflation strayed from its long-term target range. There was no
mention of keeping this option on the table in November, presumably amid
increased confidence that inflation is under control. The next monetary policy
meeting is scheduled for 10 December.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect an
average monetary policy rate of 3.63% at the end of this year. For 2016, the
panel projects an average rate of 4.17% at the end of the year.
| 100
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade balance remains in deficit as exports post

another double-digit loss
In September, the trade balance registered a USD 502 million deficit, which
was significantly larger than the USD 3.8 million shortfall observed in the
same month of last year. Septembers deficit was also greater than the USD
181 million deficit registered in August.
Merchandise Trade
8
16
8
%
-4
-8
-8
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
-16
Sep-15
Exports suffered another massive drop in September, contracting 23.0% over

the same month last year (August: -17.3% year-on-year). Septembers decline
was the largest in five months and the result from June marks the only month
without a double-digit loss since November of last year. Meanwhile, imports
fell 8.2% in September, which followed the 11.6% contraction in August.
In the 12 months up to September, the trade balance posted a record deficit
of USD 2.9 billion. The trade balance peaked at a record-high surplus of USD
9.9 billion in February 2012. It has narrowed almost uninterruptedly since
then and shifted to deficit in April 2014. This trend has been driven by falling
global demand and decreasing prices for traditional Peruvian exports, such
as copper and gold.
Panelists surveyed for this months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast report
see exports contracting 12.3% in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees overseas
sales expanding 3.7%.
| 101
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015

Annual Data
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (PEN bn)
Manufacturing (annual var. in %)
Commerce (annual var. in %)
Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop)
Stock Market (variation of IGBVL in %)
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop)
External Sector
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq variation in %)
Manufacturing (annual var. in %)
Commerce (annual var. in %)
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop)
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (IMAE, annual var. in %)
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)
Consumer Confid. Index (100-point threshold)
Business Confid. Index (50-point threshold)
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
29.6
5,029
149
420
15.0
8.5
14.9
8.2
23.1
10.8
12.5
7.9
-0.2
24.3
30.0
5,705
171
470
12.0
6.5
7.7
5.8
6.0
8.6
8.9
7.7
2.0
22.1
30.5
6,318
193
508
8.2
6.0
7.4
6.4
16.4
1.5
7.2
6.8
2.3
20.4
30.9
6,540
202
545
7.3
5.8
6.9
5.5
7.4
5.7
5.9
6.0
0.9
19.6
31.4
6,458
203
575
5.5
2.4
2.2
5.1
-2.1
-3.3
4.4
5.9
-0.1
20.1
31.9
6,023
192
611
6.2
2.7
2.4
3.6
-3.3
-1.2
3.6
6.4
-2.2
21.3
32.4
5,929
192
654
7.0
3.4
2.8
3.5
1.3
1.4
3.5
6.4
-2.6
22.4
32.9
6,088
200
700
7.1
4.0
3.7
4.0
3.4
2.4
4.0
6.0
-1.9
22.7
33.4
6,424
215
750
7.1
4.3
4.5
4.4
5.2
3.3
5.0
5.8
-1.3
22.3
33.9
6,809
231
803
7.1
4.6
5.3
4.9
7.0
4.3
6.0
5.5
-0.7
22.0
33.8
2.1
1.5
2.1
1.8
3.00
66.4
2.81
2.82
13.7
4.7
3.4
3.7
6.3
4.25
-16.7
2.70
2.75
25.3
2.7
3.7
3.3
1.8
4.25
5.9
2.55
2.64
5.9
2.9
2.8
3.7
0.4
4.00
-23.6
2.80
2.70
6.7
3.2
3.3
3.3
1.8
3.50
-6.1
2.99
2.84
3.8
3.5
3.63
3.37
3.18
3.2
3.6
4.17
3.49
3.40
2.9
3.1
4.26
3.50
3.49
2.6
2.8
4.36
3.48
3.49
2.4
2.5
4.46
3.47
3.48
-2.4
-3.5
7.0
35.8
28.8
32.1
37.1
8.5
44.1
18.4
43.7
29.4
-1.9
-3.2
9.2
46.4
37.2
29.6
29.2
7.7
48.8
15.7
48.1
28.1
-2.7
-5.2
6.3
47.4
41.1
2.2
10.5
11.9
64.0
18.7
59.4
30.8
-4.2
-8.5
0.6
42.9
42.2
-9.5
2.7
9.3
65.7
18.7
60.8
30.1
-4.0
-8.0
-1.3
39.5
40.8
-7.9
-3.3
7.9
62.3
18.3
64.5
31.8
-3.9
-7.6
-2.7
34.6
37.3
-12.3
-8.6
59.4
19.1
64.2
33.4
-3.5
-6.8
-2.0
35.9
37.9
3.7
1.6
59.1
18.7
67.1
34.9
-3.2
-6.4
-1.1
38.5
39.7
7.3
4.7
60.2
18.2
70.8
35.3
-3.0
-6.5
-0.3
42.2
42.5
9.4
7.1
61.6
17.4
73.9
34.4
-2.9
-6.6
0.5
47.0
46.6
11.5
9.5
63.1
16.3
77.1
33.4
Q3 14
1.8
0.5
4.7
-3.7
-3.4
4.0
5.6
2.7
3.50
2.89
2.82
-3.1
-1.6
-0.2
10.4
10.5
Q4 14
1.1
0.5
5.3
-2.5
-9.9
4.2
5.6
3.2
3.50
2.99
2.93
-2.5
-1.3
0.0
9.9
9.9
Q1 15
1.8
0.8
3.8
-6.7
-5.1
3.6
7.0
3.0
3.25
3.09
3.06
-5.5
-2.5
-1.0
8.2
9.2
Q2 15
3.0
1.1
4.2
-9.3
-0.2
3.8
6.8
3.5
3.25
3.18
3.14
-3.3
-1.6
-0.9
8.2
9.1
Q3 15
2.9
0.6
3.5
-4.5
-2.4
4.2
6.4
3.9
3.50
3.23
3.21
-5.0
-2.4
-0.9
8.4
9.4
Q4 15
3.0
3.7
2.9
2.3
3.1
6.4
3.8
3.63
3.37
3.30
-3.0
-1.5
0.1
9.5
9.5
Q1 16
3.0
3.2
2.1
1.6
3.0
6.4
3.8
3.84
3.38
3.38
-3.8
-1.7
-0.3
9.6
9.9
Q2 16
3.2
3.6
1.9
1.7
3.7
6.3
3.6
4.03
3.39
3.39
-3.8
-1.8
-0.5
9.5
10.1
Q3 16
3.7
3.8
1.8
1.8
3.6
6.2
3.4
4.13
3.41
3.40
-3.7
-1.8
-0.7
9.4
10.0
Q4 16
3.8
3.7
1.2
2.1
4.1
6.2
3.2
4.17
3.49
3.45
-3.6
-1.8
-0.3
9.6
9.9
Feb-15
1.0
-4.4
6.9
89
50.2
0.30
2.8
3.09
-21.2
Mar-15
2.8
-4.1
6.0
96
49.4
0.76
3.0
3.09
-17.5
Apr-15
4.1
5.7
7.6
94
46.7
0.39
3.0
3.13
-23.2
May-15
1.1
-3.5
7.4
97
45.1
0.56
3.4
3.15
-15.4
Jun-15
3.8
-2.8
5.5
87
50.6
0.33
3.5
3.18
-1.9
Jul-15
3.3
-0.7
6.5
93
46.7
0.45
3.6
3.19
-16.2
Aug-15
2.4
-2.1
6.5
86
42.2
0.38
4.0
3.24
-17.3
Sep-15
3.0
-4.2
6.3
86
43.2
0.03
3.9
3.23
-23.0
Oct-15
4.7
91
45.0
0.14
3.7
3.28
-
Nov-15
89
0.35
4.2
3.37
-
| 102
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %
2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %.

8
10
6
5
-5
2000
Peru
Latin America
World
2005
2010
-2
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

8

8
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Peru
Latin America
World
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< 2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.4
4.8
ADEX
APOYO Consultora
Banco Bradesco
Banco de Crdito del Per
BanBif
Barclays Capital
BBVA Banco Continental
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Macroconsult
Oxford Economics
Rimac Seguros
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
CEPAL (Nov. 2015)
2015
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.5
2.8
2.5
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.8
3.0
2.4
2.5
3.0
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.8
2016
3.5
3.0
3.8
3.2
3.3
3.8
2.8
3.6
3.0
3.8
3.5
3.5
3.2
4.1
3.4
3.6
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.7
3.8
3.2
3.5
3.2
3.9
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
3.4
2.4
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.8
4.1
3.5
3.4
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.1
2.4
2.7
4.2
3.3
3.4
> 4.8
Notes and sources

General:
the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadstica e Informtica del Per).
1
2
3
4
5
GDP, annual variation in %.

Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
GDP, panelist distribution of 2016 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
| 103
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015

ADEX
APOYO Consultora
Banco Bradesco
BanBif
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Macroconsult
Oxford Economics
Rimac Seguros
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Consumption
variation in %
2015
2016
3.6
4.4
3.6
3.2
3.9
2.9
4.6
4.0
3.9
3.1
3.9
4.6
2.5
1.8
4.0
3.4
3.0
3.2
4.3
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.6
3.4
3.6
4.0
3.3
3.3
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.2
2.9
2.7
3.1
2.8
3.7
3.8
4.1
5.0
3.5
3.5
3.9
3.4
-
Investment
variation in %
2015
2016
-5.9
1.4
-5.5
-3.4
-6.9
-1.5
-4.7
0.4
-6.1
0.1
1.0
2.5
0.1
1.6
-4.7
3.7
-3.0
-1.0
-1.4
2.4
-3.6
4.1
-3.0
3.0
-5.2
4.3
-0.7
0.6
-3.5
1.5
-3.6
2.9
0.1
0.3
-4.9
0.9
-2.0
3.4
-4.5
0.5
-1.7
-0.2
-
2.5
4.6
3.7
3.6
1.8
5.0
3.4
3.5
-6.9
1.0
-3.6
-3.3
-3.4
4.3
1.4
1.3
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.7
3.8
-3.0
-3.3
-1.7
1.4
1.5
2.2
10
Peru
Latin America
0
2000
2005
2010
2015

6
4
2015
Jul
Oct
Jan
2016
Apr
Jul
Oct
30
Peru
Latin America
20
10
-10
2000
2005
2010
2015

10
2015
2016
Notes and sources

Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadstica e Informtica del Per). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
7 Total consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
9 Gross fixed investment, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-5
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 104
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015

Manufacturing, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance
20
Peru
Latin America
10
-10
2000
2005
2010
2015

6
0
2015
-2
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

10
ADEX
APOYO Consultora
Banco Bradesco
BanBif
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Macroconsult
Oxford Economics
Rimac Seguros
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Manufacturing
variation in %
2015
2016
-1.8
3.0
-1.5
-2.1
-2.7
-1.5
0.0
2.0
-1.8
3.0
-0.3
2.4
-3.0
4.1
0.1
2.3
-0.5
-1.1
0.2
3.0
-0.6
0.4
-2.6
1.8
-
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2015
2016
6.1
6.1
5.8
5.9
7.1
6.8
6.5
6.7
6.7
7.0
6.2
6.1
6.7
6.6
5.8
6.0
6.1
5.9
7.0
6.8
6.1
6.1
6.8
6.3
6.5
6.3
6.4
6.4
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2015
2016
-0.7
-1.4
-2.4
-2.7
-2.0
-2.5
-2.0
-2.5
-1.8
-1.5
-2.5
-3.0
-3.2
-3.5
-2.9
-1.7
-2.7
-3.2
-3.0
-3.5
-2.0
-2.5
-2.5
-2.8
-2.6
-3.2
-2.3
-2.5
-2.5
-2.4
-2.3
-2.8
-2.4
-3.2
-2.8
-2.9
-2.0
-3.0
-1.3
-2.9
-1.8
-1.8
-2.7
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
-2.2
-2.5
-2.2
-2.7
-1.8
-1.9
-3.0
0.2
-1.0
-1.2
-2.1
4.1
2.2
1.4
5.8
7.1
6.5
6.4
5.9
7.0
6.3
6.4
-3.2
-0.7
-2.3
-2.2
-3.5
-1.0
-2.7
-2.6
-1.0
1.1
1.0
1.8
2.5
3.1
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2.0
-2.3
-2.2
-1.8
6
Peru
5
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

4
Notes and sources

-4
Peru
Latin America
-8
2000
2005
2010
2015
Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadstica e Informtica del Per) and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de
Reserva del Per). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.
11 Manufacturing, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEI.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCRP.
| 105
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %
15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %
20
20
15
Peru
Latin America
15
10
10
5
5
Peru
Latin America
-5
2000
2005
2010
0
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

5

5
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< 1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
ADEX
APOYO Consultora
Banco Bradesco
BanBif
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Macroconsult
Oxford Economics
Rimac Seguros
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
2015
3.8
3.8
4.2
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.4
4.1
4.0
3.1
4.0
4.2
3.8
4.0
3.8
4.0
4.1
3.5
4.1
3.5
3.9
4.0
3.5
4.0
3.8
3.9
3.1
4.0
3.7
3.8
3.9
2016
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.5
2.9
3.9
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.0
3.5
2.7
3.5
3.2
3.6
3.3
3.0
3.5
3.0
3.1
3.7
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.3
2.5
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.1
4.2
3.9
3.8
2.5
3.9
3.2
3.2
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.5-4.0
3.3
2.5-3.0
2.5
> 4.6
Notes and sources

from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadstica e Informtica del
Per). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
16 Inflation, evolution of 2015 inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2016 inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.
| 106
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015

19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %

12
20
Peru
Latin America
Peru
Latin America
15
9
10
6
5
0
2000
2005
2010
3
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

7
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
4
4
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

60%
40%
20%
0%
< 2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
ADEX
APOYO Consultora
Banco Bradesco
BanBif
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Macroconsult
Oxford Economics
Rimac Seguros
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
3.50
3.75
3.75
3.50
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.50
3.50
3.75
3.50
3.50
3.75
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.75
3.50
3.50
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
2016
3.75
4.00
4.50
4.25
4.00
5.25
4.25
4.00
4.50
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.25
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.25
4.00
3.50
4.00
4.25
4.25
3.50
3.75
3.75
3.63
3.50
5.25
4.13
4.17
3.61
3.60
3.37
4.15
4.16
4.01
> 6.00
Notes and sources

are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Per). Forecasts based on
19 Interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).
20 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).
| 107
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015

24 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD
25 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD

3.5
3.6
3.3
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.4
2000
2005
2010
2.5
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
26 | PEN per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

4.0
27 | PEN per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

4.0
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
2.5
Oct
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
28 | PEN per USD 2016 | Panelist Distribution

80%
60%
40%
Exchange Rate | PEN per USD
ADEX
APOYO Consultora
Banco Bradesco
BanBif
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Macroconsult
Oxford Economics
Rimac Seguros
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
3.33
3.40
3.35
3.40
3.46
3.40
3.40
3.40
3.30
3.30
3.35
3.35
3.35
3.35
3.38
3.40
3.35
3.40
3.40
3.40
3.31
2016
3.45
3.55
3.65
3.58
3.60
3.70
3.55
3.50
3.50
3.37
3.50
3.50
3.40
3.45
3.30
3.55
3.50
3.45
3.00
3.60
3.55
3.30
3.46
3.38
3.37
3.00
3.70
3.50
3.49
3.29
3.29
3.31
3.42
3.41
3.41
20%
0%
< 2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
4.00
4.20
> 4.20
Notes and sources

24 Exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).
25 Quarterly exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).
| 108
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015

ADEX
APOYO Consultora
Banco Bradesco
BanBif
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Macroconsult
Oxford Economics
Rimac Seguros
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Current Account
% of GDP
2015
2016
-3.9
-3.3
-3.3
-2.7
-3.3
-3.2
-4.0
-3.0
-3.5
-3.0
-3.8
-4.2
-4.8
-4.3
-4.3
-5.0
-4.0
-3.7
-3.8
-3.5
-4.5
-4.2
-3.3
-3.2
-3.9
-3.4
-3.6
-3.3
-3.8
-3.7
-4.2
-2.5
-4.9
-5.0
-3.9
-3.3
-4.0
-3.6
-4.1
-3.8
-3.2
-1.8
-5.6
-5.0
-4.5
-3.5
-4.1
-4.0
-3.3
-3.0
-3.1
-3.3
-3.4
-3.3
Trade Balance
USD bn
2015
2016
-3.1
-1.7
-1.7
-0.2
-1.3
0.3
-3.2
-4.0
-3.3
-3.3
-4.4
-6.1
-1.5
-0.7
-3.9
-2.0
-3.2
-1.8
-3.0
-2.8
-2.1
-1.4
-3.3
-0.7
-3.1
-3.5
-2.7
-1.9
-1.3
-1.7
-0.9
-0.4
-2.2
0.3
-4.1
-3.3
-2.8
-2.6
-2.1
-1.9
-5.6
-3.1
-3.9
-3.9
-5.0
-1.8
-3.4
-3.5
-4.4
-0.9
-2.9
-2.7
-6.1
0.3
-1.8
-2.0
-3.9
-3.9
-4.0
-3.5
-3.6
-3.5
-2.2
-2.3
-2.3
-1.3
-1.4
-0.9
Peru
Latin America
-3
-6
2000
2005
2010
2015

-3.0
2015
2016
-3.5
-4.0
-4.5
-5.0
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

60
40
20
-20
2000
Trade Balance
Imports
Exports
2005
2010
2015

2
2015
2016
1
0
-1
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Central Bank
(BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Per). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
29 Current account balance as % of GDP.
-2
-3
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 109
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015

Exports and Imports
ADEX
APOYO Consultora
Banco Bradesco
BanBif
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Macroconsult
Oxford Economics
Rimac Seguros
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Exports
USD bn
2015
2016
34.5
36.4
34.2
34.2
36.2
38.7
33.5
32.8
35.6
35.9
33.2
31.9
36.2
39.4
33.4
35.6
34.4
37.0
33.1
33.9
32.5
36.4
33.6
35.3
35.6
37.4
33.4
34.7
39.5
34.8
38.5
40.8
35.0
37.1
32.2
35.6
34.1
35.6
34.0
35.1
Imports
USD bn
2015
2016
37.6
38.1
35.9
34.4
37.5
38.3
36.7
36.7
38.9
39.2
37.6
38.0
37.7
40.1
37.3
37.6
37.5
38.8
36.1
36.7
34.6
37.9
36.9
36.1
38.7
41.0
36.1
36.6
40.8
36.4
39.4
41.2
37.3
36.7
36.3
38.9
36.9
38.1
36.1
37.0
32.2
39.5
34.1
34.6
31.9
40.8
35.6
35.9
34.6
40.8
37.3
37.3
34.4
41.2
37.9
37.9
35.8
36.0
36.1
37.7
37.9
38.8
38.1
38.3
38.3
39.0
39.3
39.7
60
40
20
-20
Peru
-40
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

55
2015
2016
50
45
40
35
30
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
60
40
20
-20
Peru
-40
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

50
2015
2016
45
Notes and sources
40
35
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 110
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015

ADEX
APOYO Consultora
Banco Bradesco
BanBif
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
BTG Pactual
Capital Economics
Credicorp Capital
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IEDEP - CCL
IPE
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Macroconsult
Oxford Economics
Rimac Seguros
Santander
Scotiabank
Standard Chartered
Thorne & Associates
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Int. Reserves
USD bn
2015
2016
60.9
58.9
60.2
59.0
61.0
63.0
52.3
55.3
60.5
59.5
61.3
63.5
62.1
63.1
53.4
53.2
60.7
57.7
55.9
55.2
62.3
59.2
58.0
57.0
61.2
58.7
59.2
61.0
62.3
62.7
-
External Debt
USD bn
2015
2016
64.8
66.8
65.9
66.9
60.4
63.7
64.2
64.0
58.8
58.5
65.1
67.7
66.1
68.8
58.5
60.8
65.2
66.2
71.7
83.1
61.5
63.0
66.6
73.5
66.2
69.0
-
52.3
62.3
60.7
59.4
53.2
63.5
59.0
59.1
58.5
71.7
65.1
64.2
58.5
83.1
66.8
67.1
59.9
59.9
59.3
59.7
59.7
59.6
65.0
64.3
64.7
68.5
68.0
68.4
20
15
10
5
Peru
Latin America
0
2000
2005
2010
2015

80
70
60
2015
50
Jul
Oct
Jan
2016
Apr
Jul
Oct

60
40
20
Peru
Latin America
0
2000
2005
2010
2015

70
66
Notes and sources

62
2015
58
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
2016
Oct
| 111
FOCUSECONOMICS
Peru
December 2015
Fact Sheet
General Data
Peru in the Region
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Republic of Peru
Lima (8.7m)
Arequipa (0.8m)
Trujillo (0.7m)
1,285,216
31.4
24.5
1.0
73.2
7.1
Spanish, Quechua and
Aymara
Metric system
GMT-5
Area (km2):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Peru
3.4%
Peru
5.2%
Other
20.7%
Other
26.5%
Brazil
33.6%
Argentina
7.0%
Argentina
9.0%
Colombia
7.9%
Mexico
19.8%
Mexico
21.5%
11.3
98.1
39.2
5.2

100
2004-06
2007-09
2010-12
1,011
1,093
39.1
35.7
160
172
53.6
Ollanta Moises Humala Tasso

10 April 2011
April 2016
Julio Velarde Flores
Manufacturing
60
40
Other Industry
20
Services
Strengths
LatAm
19.8%
High dependence on commodity

prices
Other
2.9%

40
Government
Consumption
20
Private
Consumption
U.S.A.
18.0%
Other
12.3%

Brazil
5.4%
Canada
6.5%
China
17.5%
Japan
5.3%
U.S.A.
20.3%
Switzerland
7.2%
Exports
Imports
Other
LatAm
21.8%
EU-27
16.2%
China
19.2%

EU-27
12.5%

Other Asia
ex-Japan
8.4%

Other
1.2%
Weaknesses
Strong international reserves

position
Investment
60
Outlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
Pragmatic approach to economic Large informal economy

policy
Pronounced socioeconomic
inequalities
Succesfully contained inflation
Net Exports
Trade Structure
Other Asia
ex-Japan
6.5%
Rating
A3
BBB+
BBB+
2011-13
Agency
Moodys:
S&P:
Fitch Ratings:
2008-10
80
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
2005-07
Agriculture
191
1,907
140,672
8,808
Callao, Paita, Matarani

100
80
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Brazil
39.1%
Colombia
6.3%
Economic Structure
Energy (2012)
Food
20.4%
Other
2.8%
Manufact.
Products
14.1%
Mineral
Fuels
14.8%
Mineral
Fuels
13.7%
Exports
Food
10.2%
Imports
Ores &
Metals
50.6%
Manufact.
Products
72.2%
| 112
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015
Venezuela
Venezuela
Venezuela headed to the polls on 6 December in what were the tightest

GDP (USD bn):
GDP growth (%):
Inflation (%):
2011-13
29.5
356
12,048
3.7
-3.6
27.9
29.0
4.0
33.5
2014-16
30.9
338
10,937
-5.4
-8.2
37.0
117.2
-0.5
37.9
2017-19
32.2
350
10,836
2.0
-4.5
38.7
100.9
0.5
42.4
elections since the ruling Socialist United Party of Venezuela (PSUV) came
to power in 1999. Preliminary results show that the political opposition won
99 of 167 seats in the legislative election while the PSUV won 46 seats
with 22 seats still to be counted. The new seat distribution enables the
political opposition to push laws for the first time in well over a decade.
However, the political and economic direction the country will take going
forward is still uncertain. Meanwhile, the Venezuelan National Assembly
approved the budget for 2016 on 1 December. The VEF 1.6 trillion budget,
equivalent to USD 247 billion at the official exchange rate, is twice as
large as the budget for 2015. The 2016 budget assumes the price of oil to
be USD 40 per barrel. The government, however, did not make an official
forecast for inflation or economic growth.
Despite the change in Venezuelas Legislative Assembly, the countrys

growth prospects are grim. A shrinking economy, runaway inflation and
low oil prices are likely to propel the largest contraction in over a decade
this year. Economic analysts who took part in this months LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast panel see a 8.0% contraction in GDP for 2015. For
2016, the panel sees GDP falling 4.5%, which is down 0.4 percentage
points from last months forecast.
Inflation rose to levels not seen since 1997 last year and is expected to
have soared past 100% in recent months. The panel sees inflation ending
2015 at 179.6% and 2016 at 164.8%.
Jean-Philippe Pourcelot
Economist
Election Results
Pending
(22 seats)
13.1%
PSUV
(46 seats)
27.3%
MUD (99 seats)

59.6%
Note: 6 December Legislative election results. Number of seats in %.

Source: National Electoral Council (CNE).
POLITICS | Opposition wins landmark legislative elections signalling

political shift in Venezuela
Venezuela headed to the polls on 6 December in what were considered the
most unpredictable and closely-fought elections in well over a decade. The
United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela,
PSUV), founded by the late Hugo Chavez and led by current President Nicolas
Maduro, has ruled the country uninterruptedly since 1999. The 6 December
elections were decisive as they were the first elections in which the political
opposition was able to make significant gains in the Legislative Assembly
and erode the ruling partys grip on power. Voters took to the ballot boxes
on Sunday amidst the worst economic crisis in Venezuelas recent history,
characterized by skyrocketing inflation, chronic shortages of consumer goods
and rampant violence and insecurity. Polls published before the elections
indicated that the opposition coalition, represented by the Democratic Unity
Roundtable (Mesa de la Unidad Democrtica, MUD), was poised to garner
a majority in the Legislative Assembly for the first time in 16 years. Voter
frustration and MUDs improved electoral strategy gave them a comfortable
lead of nearly 30% over the PSUV just weeks before the election.
The electoral campaign that started in mid-November was characterized
by several episodes of political violence, intimidation and allegations of
| 113
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015
potential irregularities in the elections. Luis Manuel Diaz, secretary general

of the Democratic Action party (Accion Democratica, AD), was shot during
a public meeting that prominent MUD candidates, including Lilian Tintori,
wife of imprisoned politician Leopoldo Lopez attended. Tintori accused the
government of orchestrating the attack and saw herself as the potential target.
The government quickly dismissed the accusation and denied any wrongdoing
in at least five other incidents involving opposition candidates. Furthermore,
MUD heavily criticized Maduros government for refusing to allow independent
international observers from the Organization of American States (OAS) and
the European Union (EU) to monitor the election. President Maduro did permit
some international observers to monitor the elections, but this didnt quell
the oppositions concerns that the government could still manipulate results
or cause irregularities. The National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional
Electoral, CNE) has also been in the spotlight due its lack of transparency and
independence.
In the end, the elections took place without any major incidents. It was
reported, however, that some polling stations remained opened for longer
than scheduled and the CNE was criticized for delaying the release of the
first results for a few hours. Preliminary figures released by the CNE revealed
that voter turnout reached 74.25% of the electorate, which is likely to be
the highest voter turnout for a legislative election. With 96.03% of the votes
counted, the results point to a landmark victory for the MUD in a clear sign
that the electorate rebuked Maduros government and his Chavez-inspired
economic policies.
The composition of the Legislative Assembly shifted drastically as MUD won
99 seats, representing an important gain over the 65 seats they won in the
2010 legislative elections. In fact, MUD beat all expectations and comfortably
crossed the 84-seat threshold needed for a simple majority. The PSUV
suffered their biggest electoral blow in history and won just 46 seats, losing
53 seats in this election. 22 seats in the 167-seat Assembly have yet to be
confirmed. The power the MUD will have in the Legislative Assembly depends
heavily on whether they are able to obtain 101 seats for a three-fifths majority
or obtain a two-thirds majority of 112 seats.
The simple majority of 84 seats allows MUD to approve laws and block
presidential vetoes. With a three-fifths majority, the party could block the
government from appointing ministers and ruling by Executive decree, and
MUD could remove cabinet members. A supermajority of 112 legislators
could trigger significant changes in the Venezuelan political landscape. The
opposition would be capable of appointing members to the Supreme Court
and the CNE, and pushing forward referendums and constitutional reforms.
However, implementing change wouldnt be easy. President Maduro reiterated
on numerous occasions that he was willing to fight the opposition if the PSUV
were to suffer an unfavorable electoral result and that he would support his
party in continuing the revolutionary struggle on the streets. It has yet to be
seen if the political and social environment will become more polarized or
rather if the Legislative Assembly will enter into a political deadlock.
Regardless of the outcome of the elections, FocusEconomics panelists are
pessimistic about the countrys outlook. Recession, skyrocketing inflation and
low oil prices are expected to push the economy into the worst contraction
in over a decade this year. The economic analysts we surveyed this month
foresee GDP falling 8.0% in 2015, which is down 0.6 percentage points from
| 114
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015
last months forecast. For 2016, the panel of analysts expects the economy to
contract 4.5%, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last months forecast.
Car Sales
140
160
Year-on-year (left scale)
REAL SECTOR | Car sales fall in October

Annual car sales fell 72.4% over the same month last year and totaled
613 units in October, according to figures from the Venezuelan Automotive
Chamber (CAVENEZ, Camara Automotriz de Venezuela). The reading was a
deterioration from Septembers 67.6% contraction and marks the sharpest in
12 months.
12-month sum (right scale)

70
120
%
0
80
-70
40
-140
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
In the 12 months up to September, car sales reached 22,886 units, which was
6.6% lower than last years figure for the same period (September: -19.3%
year-on-year). Car sales currently total just a fraction of the peak of 491,899
units recorded in calendar year 2007. Extreme supply shortages due to
government restrictions on both assembly plants and importers have severely
hampered sales of vehicles in recent years.
Note: Year-on-year variation and 12-month sum of domestic car sales in

thousand units.
Source: Venezuelan Automobile Chamber (CAVENEZ).
Given the limited availability of timely data for the real sector, analysts often
use car sales as a proxy for private consumption. Panelists participating in
the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect private consumption to decline
7.7% in 2015, which is down 0.6 percentage points. For 2016, the panel sees
consumption to drop 5.2%, which is down 0.5 percentage points.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank confirms that money supply soared
in weeks prior to elections
Venezuela headed to the polls on December 6 amid one of the biggest
economic crises the country has faced in its recent history. Although no official
GDP data has been released for 2014 or 2015 and there is no official inflation
data for this year, the available evidence continues to point to a deepening
economic crisis. A sharp drop in oil prices, which accounts for about 95%
of Venezuelas exports and half of public revenues, has significantly limited
access to foreign currency and is aggravating inflation and creating huge
goods shortages. Meanwhile, President Nicolas Maduro has downplayed the
crisis, arguing that the economy has been sabotaged by the opposition. He
also stated recently in the presentation of the 2016 budget that his government
expects inflation to stand at around 60% in 2016. However, neither the Central
Bank of Venezuela (BCV) nor the National Statistics Institute (INE) has
produced an official press release.
Despite Maduros statement, the FocusEconomics panel of analysts has
a more pessimistic view of price developments in the country. Our panel
estimates that inflation has worsened drastically since December 2014s
68.5% and that it soared from Octobers 183.4% to 192.9% in November,
which will mark a multi-year high if confirmed. Inflation has continually spiraled
upward in Venezuela as the drop in oil prices is hindering the ability of the
government to supply dollars to its complex exchange rate system. Public
finances are unlikely to improve as the Venezuelan government has forecast
the price per barrel of oil to average USD 40 in 2016.
The Central Bank confirmed just weeks ahead of the elections that money
supply had been increasing by more than 100% in annual terms. The pace
of monetary expansion, particularly that of narrow money, soared to almost
102% in mid-November after climbing from 80% in mid-year to 100% in
September. Broad money, defined as money in any form such as notes and
coins, has registered a similar growth trend because time deposits have
dropped notably as confidence in the banking system is extremely low. The
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FOCUSECONOMICS
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December 2015
revelations made by the Central Bank offer important insight into the current
monetary situation in Venezuela. Money-printing by the BCV reflects, on the
one hand, the aggressive fiscal policy carried out by the government ahead of
the legislative elections. The deficit has soared as spending on social projects,
campaigning and public sector-wages all went up ahead of the decisive 6
December elections. On the other hand, as panelists participating in the
LatinFocus Consensus Forecasts have suggested in previous reports, this
clearly indicates that inflation has been rising sharply in the past few months
the increase in money supply has exceeded the supply of consumer goods.
Economic analysts who participated in this months LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast see inflation to end the year at 179.6%, which is down 0.3 percentage
points from last months forecast. For 2016, the panel foresees inflation to
remain elevated at 164.8%, which is up 15.7 percentage points from last
months forecast.
MONETARY SECTOR | Parallel dollars unabated fall hits new record low
days before key elections
After falling to a record-low in early October, the bolivar traded in the parallel
market tumbled even further throughout the month of November and the
non-official exchange rate tallied 893.8 VEF per USD on 30 November. The
result represented a 13.7% depreciation over the same day of the previous
month and a massive 486% depreciation over the same day of the previous
year. The parallel dollar has lost 426% of its value this year largely due to
intense dollar shortages and an increase in the supply of bolivars. Following
the new historical-low that the currency hit on the last day of November, the
depreciating trend continued in the run-up to the legislative elections on 6
December. In the first week of December, the parallel dollar soared passed
900.0 VEF per USD, a new record-low.
Exchange Rate | VEF per USD
1000
Official exchange rate
800
Non-official exchange rate
600
400
200
0
Jan-13Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14Jan-15Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15
Note: Official and non-official exchange rate of Venezuelan bolivar (VEF) against
U.S. dollar (USD).
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Venezuela Central Bank (BCV) and local
sources.
At the heart of the parallel dollars rapid freefall is the countrys dire financial
situation combined with a convoluted three-tier exchange rate system. Oil
revenues represent around 95% of Venezuelas dollar income and low oil
prices have limited the governments ability to supply dollars to this system.
Recession and runaway inflation combined with the fall in oil prices have
pushed Venezuela into a full-blown economic crisis. Moreover, the government
has a number of debts due throughout next year which will likely intensify the
current dollar shortage if oil prices remain low and the exchange rate system
unchanged.
The economic analysts we polled for this months LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast see the parallel dollar continuing its downward trajectory this year
and project a non-official exchange rate of 931.5 VEF per USD by the end
of 2015. In 2016, analysts see the non-official exchange rate depreciating to
1,796 VEF per USD.
Meanwhile, the Simadi exchange ratethe third tier of Venezuelas exchange
rate systemhas remained broadly stable despite the parallel dollars
weakening. On 30 November, the exchange rate in the Simadi system was
199.6 VEF per USD, which represented a slight 0.1% depreciation over
the same day of the previous month. The Simadi system was introduced
in February in an attempt to ease black market activity; however, not much
has changed since its introduction and local reports suggest that very little
volume has been available in the system. The last auction held on the Sicad
mechanism, the second tier of Venezuelas exchange rate system, was held
at 13.5 VEF per USD in September.
| 116
FOCUSECONOMICS
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December 2015
The FocusEconomics panel is split on whether the Venezuelan government

will modify the exchange-rate before the year end. A slim majority of panelists
expects the official rate to remain unchanged throughout 2015 and to end
the year at 6.30 VEF per USD. On the other hand, a number of panelists
expect a devaluation in the official rate this year as dollar shortages force the
government to act. All our panellists see a further devaluation by the end of
2016. On average, the panel sees the official exchange rate ending 2015 at
27.16 VEF per USD. Next year, the panel expects the bolivar to weaken to
70.94 VEF per USD.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Venezuelan oil prices drop to over-six-year-low
In November, the average price of Venezuelas mix of crude oil dropped 9.3%
over the previous month, falling from USD 40.4 per barrel in October to USD
36.6 per barrel in November. The price of the barrel of oil tallied in November
is the lowest since February 2009.
Oil Prices | USD per barrel

125
According to the latest report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting

Countries (OPEC) that was released on 12 November, Venezuelan oil
production increased from 2.36 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September
to 2.37 mbpd in October.
100
75
50
25
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Note: Price of the Venezuelan mix of crude oil in USD per barrel.
Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Mining.
The Venezuelan government relies heavily on oil revenues to balance its

budget and to comply with its international obligations. Oil accounts for about
95% of Venezuelas exports and for more than half of public sector revenues.
The recent plunge in oil prices is expected to put additional pressure on the
countrys finances. While the 2016 budget assumes an oil price of USD 40 per
barrel, analysts point out that the government needs a breakeven oil price that
is well above USD 100 per barrel.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect oil prices to average USD
47.6 per barrel this year, which is down USD 1.8 per barrel over last months
projection. In 2016, the panel sees oil prices rising to USD 51.0 per barrel,
which is down USD 0.8 per barrel from last months forecast.
| 117
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015

Annual Data
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (VEF bn)
Manufacturing (annual var. in %, aop)
Car Sales (annual var. in %)
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop)
Stock Market (IBC, variation in %)
Exchange Rate (VEF per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (VEF per USD, aop)
Non-official Exch. Rate (VEF per USD, eop)
External Sector
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel, aop)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
28.6
8,337
239
1,017
43.8
-1.5
-0.5
-1.9
2.1
-6.3
-3.4
-8.3
8.5
-3.6
30.1
29.1
10,859
316
1,357
33.5
4.2
7.6
4.0
5.9
4.4
3.8
-3.7
8.2
-4.0
25.1
29.5
12,885
380
1,635
20.5
5.6
12.3
7.0
6.3
23.3
1.8
8.2
7.8
-4.9
27.6
30.0
12,401
372
2,268
38.7
1.3
-1.9
4.7
3.3
-9.0
-0.3
-24.3
7.5
-1.9
31.0
30.4
11,323
345
3,596
58.5
-3.7
-6.3
-3.5
1.6
-15.0
-6.3
-76.0
7.0
-7.6
40.5
30.9
10,989
339
7,884
119.3
-8.0
-11.3
-7.7
-3.7
-18.5
-11.6
8.5
-9.4
35.6
31.3
10,500
329
21,575
173.6
-4.5
-6.0
-5.2
-3.4
-10.0
-7.1
10.4
-7.6
34.8
31.8
10,368
330
52,065
141.3
-0.2
-0.6
-0.7
1.8
-5.4
-1.3
11.5
-6.3
36.7
32.2
10,840
350
105,787
103.2
2.0
2.7
2.1
4.6
0.3
2.5
12.0
-4.5
38.7
32.7
11,299
369
181,086
71.2
4.2
6.1
4.8
7.5
5.9
6.3
12.5
-2.7
40.6
19.1
27.2
28.2
14.64
18.6
4.30
4.26
9.00
50.6
27.6
26.1
14.50
79.1
4.30
4.30
9.24
61.0
20.1
21.1
14.50
302.8
4.30
4.30
17.33
69.7
56.2
40.6
14.74
480.5
6.30
6.09
62.26
64.0
68.5
62.2
14.84
41.0
6.30
6.30
169.8
98.6
179.6
127.2
17.22
27.16
8.91
931.5
96.3
164.8
178.2
23.52
70.94
52.46
1,796
79.6
118.3
141.5
22.60
97.09
84.02
2,276
57.1
84.1
101.2
21.64
113.0
105.0
2,763
34.7
49.8
67.0
20.68
128.8
120.9
3,250
3.7
8.8
27.2
65.7
38.5
14.1
-5.2
72.0
1.6
29.5
9.2
97
40.7
7.7
24.4
46.0
92.8
46.8
41.2
21.5
101.1
5.7
29.9
7.7
111
35.1
2.9
11.0
38.0
97.3
59.3
4.9
26.8
103.4
6.0
29.9
6.0
119
31.3
1.4
5.3
35.9
89.0
53.0
-8.6
-10.6
98.8
2.7
21.5
4.9
128
34.3
2.5
8.6
33.5
78.5
45.0
-11.8
-15.1
88.4
0.3
22.1
5.9
111
32.3
-2.7
-9.2
9.6
43.7
34.1
-44.3
-24.2
47.6
14.6
5.2
134
39.6
-1.3
-4.3
13.8
46.1
32.3
5.5
-5.2
51.0
13.2
4.9
137
41.6
-0.1
-0.2
17.3
49.1
31.8
6.4
-1.6
61.1
16.0
6.0
143
43.4
0.5
1.8
19.9
52.3
32.4
6.5
1.9
68.7
17.9
6.6
148
42.3
1.0
3.9
21.6
55.8
34.2
6.6
5.5
76.2
19.8
7.0
153
41.4
Quarterly Data
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (VEF per USD, aop)
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Q3 14
-2.3
-1.6
2.0
-9.3
6.9
64.0
14.50
6.30
6.30
0.6
0.9
6.8
19.1
12.2
Q4 14
-2.8
-2.8
1.8
-5.1
6.0
68.5
14.84
6.30
6.30
-0.8
-1.4
9.1
21.6
12.5
Q1 15
-7.0
-7.5
-2.4
-17.9
7.2
93.1
14.50
6.30
6.30
-3.1
-3.2
2.4
10.2
7.7
Q2 15
-7.4
-7.5
-2.6
-17.6
8.7
123.6
14.51
6.30
6.30
-2.1
-2.6
2.7
10.7
8.0
Q3 15
-8.1
-7.4
-3.7
-17.4
9.2
169.2
14.91
6.30
6.30
-1.6
-2.2
2.7
10.7
8.0
Q4 15
-8.2
-7.3
-4.0
-17.4
9.2
179.6
17.22
27.16
16.73
-1.6
-1.0
2.3
11.4
9.1
Q1 16
-5.8
-6.1
-4.1
-14.2
9.5
185.6
17.00
37.56
32.36
-3.0
-2.6
2.5
11.2
8.7
Q2 16
-5.2
-6.1
-3.5
-11.2
10.0
179.5
18.00
53.40
45.48
-5.2
-4.1
3.4
11.5
8.2
Q3 16
-3.9
-5.0
-3.3
-9.0
10.2
175.4
20.22
69.85
61.63
-7.5
-5.0
3.5
11.7
8.2
Q4 16
-2.7
-3.8
-3.0
-6.0
11.0
164.8
23.52
70.94
70.39
-8.1
-5.5
3.7
11.9
8.2
Monthly Data
Car Sales (annual var. in %)
Non-official Exch. Rate (VEF per USD, eop)
SIMADI Exchange Rate (VEF per USD, eop)
Venezuela Oil Price (USD per barrel, aop)
Feb-15
59.6
6.30
217.4
176.6
47.8
24.3
Mar-15
128.9
6.30
260.0
193.0
47.1
21.0
Apr-15
33.5
6.30
271.6
198.3
50.5
19.0
May-15
-41.7
6.30
402.4
199.0
56.4
17.6
Jun-15
73.0
6.30
484.4
197.3
56.4
16.2
Jul-15
-8.8
6.30
677.9
199.6
49.4
17.0
Aug-15
-30.6
6.30
698.4
199.7
40.2
16.4
Sep-15
-67.6
6.30
823.1
199.4
41.1
16.4
Oct-15
-72.4
6.30
785.9
199.5
40.4
15.0
Nov-15
6.30
893.8
199.6
36.6
14.8
| 118
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %
20
2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %.

10
Venezuela
Latin America
World
10
0
0
-5
-10
2000
2005
2010
Venezuela
Latin America
World
-10
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

10
0
-5
-5
-10
Maximum
-10
Consensus
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
-15
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
-15
Oct
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

40%
Azpurua Garca Velzquez
Banco Mercantil
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Dinmica Venezuela
Ecoanaltica
Econometrica
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
CEPAL (Oct. 2015)
2015
-8.8
-11.1
-9.6
-5.6
-5.5
-10.0
-9.5
-5.9
-9.7
-6.3
-9.2
-6.5
-7.3
-9.0
-8.2
-7.5
-8.0
-4.0
-10.0
-7.5
-8.0
-8.0
2016
-2.9
-7.4
-4.1
-4.2
0.5
-3.0
-5.6
-4.0
-7.6
-1.1
-6.8
-6.3
-4.8
-4.6
-4.3
-3.5
-1.0
-6.0
-4.5
-8.0
-6.0
-11.1
-4.0
-8.0
-8.0
-8.0
0.5
-4.5
-4.5
-7.4
-7.2
-6.6
-4.1
-4.0
-2.9
-10.0
-5.1
-6.7
-6.0
-1.0
-7.0
30%
20%
10%
0%
< -12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
> 2.0
Notes and sources

General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are
from the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
| 119
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015

Banco Mercantil
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Dinmica Venezuela
Ecoanaltica
Econometrica
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Consumption
variation in %
2015
2016
-8.5
-3.7
-6.2
-4.9
-10.5
-8.0
-4.9
-1.2
-8.0
-2.0
-9.0
-6.1
-5.9
-4.8
-11.5
-10.3
-5.7
0.6
-5.5
-7.6
-9.0
-9.9
-6.9
-6.9
-7.1
-7.6
-3.9
-6.8
-6.8
-
Investment
variation in %
2015
2016
-23.4
-13.8
-20.2
-10.5
-14.7
-1.6
-20.0
-6.0
-16.7
-11.4
-11.8
-7.2
-10.0
-9.4
-25.5
-4.9
-30.3
-27.8
-17.0
-20.0
-19.3
-24.6
-5.1
-6.1
-3.3
-
-11.5
-4.9
-7.6
-7.7
-10.3
0.6
-5.5
-5.2
-30.3
-6.1
-20.0
-18.5
-27.8
-1.6
-8.3
-10.0
-7.1
-6.6
-5.8
-4.7
-4.1
-2.5
-19.4
-16.7
-15.9
-11.1
-9.6
-6.8
20
10
Venezuela
Latin America
-10
2000
2005
2010
2015

3
-3
-6
2015
-9
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
60
40
20
-20
Venezuela
-40
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

5
-5
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Central Bank of
Venezuela (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
7 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
9 Gross fixed investment, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-10
-15
2015
-20
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 120
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015

10 | Manufacturing | variation in %
30
Venezuela
Latin America
20
10
-10
-20
2000
2005
2010
2015
11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts

4
-4
-8
2015
-12
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Manufacturing, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance
Banco Mercantil
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Dinmica Venezuela
Ecoanaltica
Econometrica
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Manufacturing
ann. variation %
2015
2016
-16.0
-8.9
-9.8
-8.1
-12.5
-10.1
-8.0
-13.5
-7.7
-8.1
-4.8
-11.0
-5.0
Unemployment
% of active pop.
2015
2016
7.5
8.5
7.7
7.6
7.2
7.4
12.0
14.0
6.5
7.5
9.0
11.0
8.6
11.2
8.5
8.1
8.9
8.7
12.3
7.5
12.0
9.5
11.7
9.5
13.0
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2015
2016
-6.8
-2.8
-6.6
-6.8
-11.2
-10.2
-5.2
-2.4
-9.4
-12.2
-3.4
-2.3
-19.5
-15.8
-1.3
-2.6
-16.0
-6.5
-3.8
-7.4
-4.1
-19.9
-20.4
-16.0
-8.1
-11.0
-11.6
-8.9
-4.8
-7.8
-7.1
6.5
12.0
8.5
8.5
7.4
14.0
11.1
10.4
-19.9
-1.3
-7.1
-9.4
-20.4
-2.3
-4.1
-7.6
-10.4
-9.6
-10.3
-5.8
-4.2
-2.9
8.6
8.8
9.0
10.2
10.0
10.1
-7.7
-6.3
-6.5
-4.4
-4.3
-4.5

20
Venezuela
Latin America
15
10
5
2000
2005
2010
2015

6
Notes and sources

-6
Venezuela
Latin America
-12
2000
2005
2010
2015
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica), the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela) and the
Ministry of Economics and Finance (Mefbp, Ministerio del Poder Popular de Economa y Finanzas). See below for details.
10 Manufacturing production, annual variation in %. Source: BCV.
11 Manufacturing production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE
13 Balance of non-financial central government as % of GDP. Source: Mefbp.
| 121
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %
200
15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %
200
Venezuela
Latin America
160
Venezuela
Latin America
150
120
100
80
50
40
0
2000
2005
2010
0
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

300

1000
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum
240
180
600
120
400
60
200
Jul
Oct
Minimum
800
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

60%
Banco Mercantil
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Dinmica Venezuela
Ecoanaltica
Econometrica
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
2015
162.1
146.4
211.4
94.2
153.1
200.0
179.2
120.0
195.0
208.6
230.0
178.5
185.4
119.2
214.7
230.0
180.0
143.1
262.0
180.0
2016
122.5
129.2
141.9
95.0
200.2
150.0
213.7
175.0
105.0
296.5
86.5
275.3
130.9
118.5
150.0
200.0
140.7
200.0
200.0
94.2
262.0
180.0
179.6
86.5
296.5
150.0
164.8
179.9
173.0
151.8
149.1
177.0
122.9
190.0
210.0
40%
20%
0%
< 0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
> 350.0
Notes and sources

from the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on
| 122
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015

19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %

25
30
Venezuela
Venezuela
Latin America
Latin America
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
2000
2005
2010
5
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

75
40
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum
60
Minimum
30
45
30
20
15
10
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Banco Mercantil
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Dinmica Venezuela
Ecoanaltica
Econometrica
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
14.50
14.68
15.00
14.50
15.71
35.00
14.50
17.00
16.32
15.00
2016
14.50
14.70
70.00
14.50
25.50
14.50
19.00
24.00
15.00
14.50
35.00
15.00
17.22
14.50
70.00
15.00
23.52
16.85
16.85
16.97
21.52
21.52
17.81

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
< 0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
> 70.00
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary data are
from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
19 Interest rate, weighted average of 90-day deposit rate of 6 major commercial banks in %
(eop).
20 Quarterly interest rate, weighted average of 90-day deposit rate of 6 major commercial banks
in % (eop).
| 123
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015

24 | Exchange Rate | VEF per USD
25 | Exchange Rate | VEF per USD

75
150
120
50
90
60
25
30
0
2000
2005
2010
0
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
26 | VEF per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst
27 | VEF per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

300
150
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
225
100
150
50
75
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Exchange Rate | VEF per USD
Banco Mercantil
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Dinmica Venezuela
Ecoanaltica
Econometrica
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
2015
6.30
6.30
6.30
71.26
30.50
6.30
6.30
130.0
11.32
6.30
36.80
6.30
29.14
2016
35.00
68.00
182.9
213.1
51.05
30.00
35.00
20.00
19.57
12.60
96.60
87.43
6.30
130.0
6.30
27.16
12.60
213.1
43.03
70.94
25.19
23.34
21.50
57.41
56.11
47.84
28 | VEF per USD 2016 | Panelist Distribution

60%
40%
20%
0%
< -100.00
-50.00
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
> 250.00
Notes and sources

are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
24 Exchange rate, VEF per USD (eop).
25 Quarterly exchange rate, VEF per USD (eop).
| 124
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015
External Sector | Current Account, Trade Balance and Oil Price

Current Account, Trade Balance and Oil Price
Banco Mercantil
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Dinmica Venezuela
Ecoanaltica
Econometrica
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Current Account
USD bn
2015
2016
-3.9
-4.0
-6.9
-1.2
-11.0
4.2
-10.1
-7.6
-9.5
-3.4
-14.4
-8.8
-13.6
-10.5
-12.1
-6.5
-10.6
-3.6
-4.0
-8.1
-2.3
-10.6
-5.3
-7.0
2.0
-8.1
-7.7
-8.0
-6.0
-14.4
-3.9
-9.5
-9.2
-8.7
-8.6
-7.9
-10.5
4.2
-4.7
-4.3
-4.8
-4.1
-2.0
Trade Balance
USD bn
2015
2016
11.2
11.2
11.9
17.9
7.5
20.5
14.8
15.9
9.7
13.0
1.6
3.5
8.0
12.9
0.3
9.8
15.9
9.9
17.0
7.8
12.3
10.6
17.0
7.6
10.0
10.1
14.6
17.5
17.6
0.3
17.5
9.9
9.6
9.7
10.5
12.1
3.5
20.5
13.8
13.8
13.6
13.5
16.7
Oil price
USD per barrel
2015
2016
50.0
50.0
47.4
53.3
46.8
55.8
49.1
45.4
46.3
49.6
46.2
52.2
46.2
50.0
47.1
47.6
49.4
49.5
51.4
45.4
55.8
51.1
51.0
51.8
51.8
55.8
20
Venezuela
Latin America
15
10
-5
2000
2005
2010
2015

20
10
-10
2015
-20
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

120
Trade Balance
Imports
Exports
90
60
30
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
32 | Oil price | USD per barrel

125
100
75
Notes and sources

(BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela) and the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining (Menpet, Ministerio del Poder Popular
de Petrleo y Minera). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
29 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCV.
30 Current account balance in USD bn, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
31 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BCV.
32 Oil price in USD per barrel. Source: Menpet.
50
25
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
| 125
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015

Exports and Imports
Banco Mercantil
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Dinmica Venezuela
Ecoanaltica
Econometrica
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Exports
USD bn
2015
2016
42.2
42.2
43.0
48.5
44.4
52.9
53.7
50.9
46.6
44.5
39.5
39.5
36.2
39.5
40.0
45.0
48.9
43.8
49.2
39.8
38.6
47.7
52.1
41.2
44.8
45.2
53.1
43.7
44.8
Imports
USD bn
2015
2016
31.0
31.0
31.1
30.5
36.9
32.4
38.9
35.0
36.9
31.5
37.9
36.0
28.2
26.6
39.7
35.3
33.0
33.9
32.2
32.0
26.4
37.1
35.1
33.6
34.8
35.1
38.5
26.2
27.3
36.2
53.7
43.7
43.7
38.6
53.1
44.9
46.1
26.2
39.7
33.9
34.1
26.4
38.5
32.3
32.3
64
43.8
44.1
45.3
46.8
46.4
49.8
34.1
33.6
33.2
33.3
32.9
33.1
40
75
Venezuela
Latin America
50
25
-25
-50
2000
2005
2010
2015

100
2015
2016
88
76
52
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
75
Venezuela
Latin America
50
25
-25
-50
2000
2005
2010
2015

54
48
42
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from
the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36
30
2015
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 126
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015

Banco Mercantil
Barclays Capital
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Dinmica Venezuela
Ecoanaltica
Econometrica
EIU
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
JPMorgan
Kiel Institute
Novo Banco
Oxford Economics
Polinomics
UBS
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
Int. Reserves
USD bn
2015
2016
15.4
13.8
16.4
15.2
15.2
12.4
15.0
18.0
14.0
10.6
13.4
8.5
13.0
9.0
14.6
12.9
16.3
15.2
15.0
14.9
11.2
15.2
16.1
12.0
14.0
14.5
15.1
-
External Debt
USD bn
2015
2016
113
107
142
150
140
144
124
118
145
137
150
139
142
136
148
-
12.0
16.4
15.0
14.6
8.5
18.0
13.8
13.2
113
145
138
134
107
150
144
137
15.1
16.2
16.4
14.3
15.4
16.5
136
136
137
142
141
143
30
Venezuela
Latin America
20
10
0
2000
2005
2010
2015

24
2015
2016
21
18
15
12
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct

60
Venezuela
Latin America
50
40
30
20
10
2000
2005
2010
2015

160
2015
2016
150
140
Notes and sources

(BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
130
120
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 127
FOCUSECONOMICS
Venezuela
December 2015
Fact Sheet
General Data
Venezuela in the Region
Official name:
Bolivarian Republic of
Venezuela
Caracas (5.6m)
Maracaibo (4.1m)
Valencia (2.6m)
912,050
30.4
33.4
1.4
74.4
4.5
Spanish
Metric system
GMT-4.30
Capital:
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Communications (2013)

Venezuela
5.0%
Other
18.0%
Brazil
39.1%
Argentina
9.0%
Argentina
7.0%
Colombia
7.9%
Mexico
21.5%
Mexico
19.8%
Economic Structure
25.6
102
54.9
7.3
7,256
3,364
123
97.7
2,489
777
185
444
806
96,155
7,100
La Guaira, Maracaibo

100
2002-04
2005-07
2008-10
100
2004-06
2007-09
Manufacturing
60
40
Other Industry
20
Services
Net Exports
Investment
60
40
Government
Consumption
20
Private
Consumption
Trade Structure
LatAm
11.9%
U.S.A.
34.5%
Exports
Other 9.2%
Russia
5.2%
Brazil
10.3%
India
15.8%
China
13.9%
EU-27
12.8%
Other
LatAm
21.8%
Rating
Caa3
CCC
CCC
Outlook
Stable
Negative
-
Strengths
Weaknesses
Substantial oil wealth

High revenues from oil exports
Progress in health and education
Membership of Mercosur
Dependence on oil
Deep political polarization
Runaway inflation
Exchange rate misalignments
China
12.8%
Other
4.7%
Food
15.4%
Other
3.9%
Exports
Mineral
Fuels
95.3%
U.S.A.
28.0%
Imports
Singapore
5.9%
Agency
Moodys:
S&P:
Fitch Ratings:
2010-12
80
Other
17.9%
Nicols Maduro Moros

14 April 2013
2018
Nelson Merentes Daz
Agriculture
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Colombia
6.3%
Brazil
33.6%
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Venezuela
6.1%
Other
26.7%
80
Energy (2012)
Imports
Manufact.
Products
80.6%
| 128
Other Countries
Bolivia
FOCUSECONOMICS
Bolivia
December 2015
Outlook moderates
Bolivia
Despite the external headwinds facing the country, Bolivias economy

accelerated in the second quarter of the year. Although economic slumps
in key trading partners and low commodity prices are expected to hamper
export revenues this year, robust public spending should mitigate the
impact. On 23 November, the government presented the budget for
2016 to Congress. The budget allocates over USD 8.0 billion for public
investment and targets hydroelectricity projects, social welfare and
improving infrastructure.

2011-13
10.8
27.2
2,512
5.7
1.1
33.5
6.7
3.7
26.0
GDP (USD bn):
GDP growth (%):
Inflation (%):
2014-16
11.5
36.0
3,134
4.6
-4.2
36.7
5.2
-2.6
26.4
2017-19
12.1
45.5
3,748
4.1
-4.0
43.9
5.7
-2.1
27.4
Bolivias economy is expected to growth 4.4% this year before slowing

in 2016. Subdued demand from Brazil and Argentina will limit important
gas exports, but growth will remain supported by the governments public
investment initiatives. For 2016, our panel sees the economy expanding
3.8%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last months forecast.
Inflation rose from 4.1% in September to 4.3% in October. Exchange rate

stability has helped keep inflationary pressures at bay this year. According
to the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast, inflation will end 2015 at 4.6% in
2015 and 2016 at 5.1%.
Angela Bouzanis
Economist
1 | GDP | variation in %
3 | Inflation | in %
20
Bolivia
Latin America
15
0
10
-5
-4
2000
Bolivia
Latin America
World
2005
Bolivia
2010
2015
4 | GDP | evolution of forecasts
-10
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015
5 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
5.2
4.8
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
6 | Inflation | evolution of forecasts

5.5
5.0
4.4
-2
4.0
-4
4.5
2015
3.6
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-6
2015
Jul
Oct
Jan
2015
2016
Apr
Jul
Oct
4.0
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
2016
Jul
Oct
| 129
FOCUSECONOMICS
Bolivia
December 2015

Annual Data
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (BOB bn)
Unemployment (% of active population, eop)
Prime Lending Rate (in %, eop)
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, aop)
External Sector
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
7 | Exchange Rate | BOB per USD
15
8.0
10
7.5
7.0
6.5
-5
2005
2010
-10
2000
2015
9 | BOB per USD | evolution of fcst

7.1
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
10.4
1,884
19.6
138
13.3
4.1
4.0
7.5
4.4
1.7
38.5
10.6
2,257
24.0
166
20.6
5.2
5.2
23.7
3.8
0.8
34.7
10.8
2,501
27.1
187
12.6
5.1
4.6
2.5
3.2
1.8
33.3
11.0
2,778
30.7
212
13.2
6.8
5.9
11.7
4.0
0.7
32.5
11.2
2,934
33.0
228
7.6
5.5
5.4
9.9
4.0
-3.4
33.0
11.5
3,146
36.1
249
9.3
4.4
4.9
5.4
4.0
-4.6
36.6
11.7
3,323
38.8
271
8.6
3.8
4.0
4.8
4.0
-4.7
40.6
11.9
3,510
41.8
296
9.3
3.9
4.0
4.8
4.1
-4.3
42.0
12.1
3,738
45.3
325
9.8
4.1
4.1
5.1
4.2
-4.0
43.9
12.4
3,995
49.4
358
10.1
4.2
4.2
5.3
4.3
-3.6
45.8
25.1
7.2
2.5
10.4
7.01
7.02
20.7
6.9
9.9
10.81
6.91
7.00
20.2
4.5
4.5
10.60
7.01
6.99
17.7
6.5
5.7
11.41
6.91
6.96
17.1
5.2
5.8
8.00
6.91
6.91
4.6
4.9
8.50
6.91
6.91
5.1
4.8
8.90
7.04
6.98
5.7
5.4
8.96
7.13
7.08
5.8
5.7
9.07
7.21
7.17
6.0
5.9
9.19
7.29
7.25
3.9
0.8
0.8
6.4
5.6
29.1
22.4
0.6
7.9
16.8
6.0
30.6
0.3
0.1
0.4
8.4
7.9
30.6
41.6
0.9
9.6
14.6
6.4
26.9
7.3
2.0
2.7
11.3
8.6
34.6
8.2
1.1
11.4
15.9
6.9
25.5
3.4
1.1
2.0
11.7
9.7
3.9
12.9
1.7
12.5
15.5
7.9
25.8
0.1
0.0
1.7
12.3
10.6
5.2
8.9
0.6
13.2
15.0
8.5
25.7
-3.8
-1.4
0.9
11.0
10.1
-10.3
-4.2
12.6
14.9
9.3
25.8
-4.1
-1.6
0.9
11.1
10.3
0.8
1.4
12.2
14.3
10.8
27.8
-3.0
-1.3
0.8
11.3
10.5
1.8
2.4
12.1
13.8
11.6
27.9
-2.1
-0.9
0.8
11.8
10.9
3.9
3.9
12.0
13.2
12.5
27.5
-1.1
-0.6
0.9
12.4
11.5
5.9
5.5
11.9
12.4
13.3
26.9
8.5
6.0
2000
2010
Bolivia
Latin America
2005
2015

3
7.0
6.9
-3
2015
6.8
2010
2015
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
2016
Oct
-6
Jul
Oct
Jan
2016
Apr
Jul
Oct
Notes and sources

General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All
data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de
Estadistica) and the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia). See
below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: INE.
2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCB.
Source: INE.
4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2015
and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
6 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18
months.
7 Exchange rate, BOB per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCB.
9 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18
months.
10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016
| 130
FOCUSECONOMICS
Bolivia
December 2015
Fact Sheet
General Data
Bolivia in the Region
Official name:
Plurinational State of
Bolivia
La Paz (1.9 m)
Sucre (0.2 m)
Cochabamba (0.9 m)
1,098,581
11.2
10.2
1.6
68.6
8.8
Spanish, Quechua and
Aymara
Metric system
GMT-4
Capital (Administrative):
Capital (Judicial):
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Language:
Measures:
Time:

Bolivia
1.9%
Bolivia
0.5%
Other
23.3%
Other
29.9%
Brazil
33.6%
Colombia
6.3%
Argentina
7.0%
Argentina
9.0%
Colombia
7.9%
Mexico
19.8%
Mexico
21.6%
8.2
97.7
39.5
1.3

100
2005-07
2008-10
2011-13
Energy (2012)
801
293
7.3
6.5
56.6
67.0
17.3
2008-10
Manufacturing
60
40
Other Industry
20
Services
Net Exports
Investment
60
40
Government
Consumption
20
Private
Consumption
Trade Structure
U.S.A.
10.0%
Other
17.4%

Colombia
5.5%

Peru
6.4%

EU-27
6.9%
exAsia
Japan
6.6%
Exports
Imports
Other
LatAm
6.9%
Strengths
Entitled to participate in
programs for poor countries
from international organizations
Rich in natural resources
Outlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
China
13.4%
Other Asia
ex-Japan
5.0%
Other
1.5%
Other
0.8%
Food
14.2%
Manufact.
Products
5.3%
Food
7.7%
Exports
Mineral
Fuels
48.5%
EU-27
12.8%
Weaknesses
Small market size
Profound regional divisions
Widespread poverty
High illiteracy rates
Japan
5.0%
Brazil
17.1%
Brazil
33.0%
Rating
Ba3
BB
BB
U.S.A.
12.5%
Other 9.9%
Argentina
10.9%
Argentina
20.6%
Agency
Moodys:
S&P:
Fitch Ratings:
2011-13
80
Political Data
Juan Evo Morales Ayma

12 October 2014
October 2019
Marcelo Zabalaga
2005-07
Agriculture
855
3,652
80,488
10,000
Puerto Aguirre

100
80
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Brazil
39.2%
Economic Structure
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Ores &
Metals
31.1%
Mineral
Fuels
13.9%
Imports
Manufact.
Products
76.9%
| 131
FOCUSECONOMICS
Ecuador
December 2015
Ecuador
Ecuador
Cheap oil and a strong dollar have conflated to create a perfect storm

GDP (USD bn):
GDP growth (%):
Inflation (%):
2011-13
15.5
87.3
5,622
6.0
-1.8
21.2
4.1
-0.6
19.2
2014-16
16.3
104.7
6,429
1.1
-5.3
34.2
3.6
-2.0
27.1
2017-19
17.0
117.5
6,903
2.0
-2.8
39.9
2.5
-2.2
29.5
for Ecuador, and neither of those factors show signs of abating any
time soon. These unfavorable circumstances are putting tremendous
pressure on the government of the dollarized economy, where crude
petroleum makes up over 50% of exports. The government is bounded
by an inability to control its own monetary policy, a strong USD and a high
cost of borrowing, calling into question its ability to sustain the dollarized
economy. Moreover, this has shaken the confidence of citizens and
investors who have begun taking money out of banks, increasing the risk
of a potential liquidity crisis. On November 24, the government passed
the 2016 budget, which includes USD 6.6 billion in financing needs, to be
covered mostly by outside sources.
The recession in Ecuador will likely continue well into next year as
government spending cuts and reduced activity in petroleum extraction
take their toll on domestic demand. Downside risks to growth will
accumulate should low oil prices and the strong USD continue for a
protracted period of time. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast have adjusted their expectations accordingly. The
panel expects GDP to increase 0.1% in 2015 and see the economy
contracting 0.5% in 2016 which is down 0.6 percentage points from last
months forecast.
Inflation fell from 3.5% in October to 3.4% in November, thus hitting a

19-month low. The panel expects inflation to end 2015 at 3.5%. Panelists
see inflation closing 2016 at 3.3%.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity drops in September
Robert Hill
Economist
16
Year-on-year (left scale)
12
Annual Average (right scale)

8
-8
-16
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
0
Sep-15
In September, economic activity fell 0.7% over the same month last year,
according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IDEAC, Indice de
Actividad Economica Coyuntural). The result contrasted the 0.4% growth
recorded in August.
On a month-on-month basis, economic activity in September increased 0.89%
in seasonally-adjusted terms, which followed the 1.00% increase recorded in
August. Annual average growth in economic activity fell from Augusts 1.2% to
0.7%, which marked the lowest result since February 2010.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 0.1% in 2015, which is down
0.1 percentage points from last months forecast. For 2016, panelists expect
the economy to contract 0.5%, which is down 0.6 percentage points from the
previous months forecast.
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity

in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.
| 132
FOCUSECONOMICS
Ecuador
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation drops to 19-month low in November

0.9
5.0
0.6
4.0
0.3
3.0
0.0
2.0
-0.3
Nov-13

May-14
Nov-14
May-15
1.0
Nov-15
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of consumer price index in %.

Source: National Statistical Institute (INEC).
December 2015
contrasted Octobers 0.09% decrease. The transport component of the index
drove Novembers result. The strong USD, which the country has adopted
as its currency, has pushed down the price for imported goods, limiting
inflationary pressures.
Inflation dropped from 3.5% in October to 3.4% in November, the lowest
reading since April 2014. Annual average variation in consumer prices
remained steady in November at Octobers reading of 4.0%.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast foresee inflation
at 3.5% at the end of 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last
months estimate. In 2016, participants expect inflation to decrease to 3.3%,
which is unchanged from last months forecast.
| 133
FOCUSECONOMICS
Ecuador
December 2015

Annual Data
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn)
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop)
External Sector
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
15.0
4,633
69.6
11.3
3.5
7.2
10.2
5.1
7.6
-1.3
19.2
15.3
5,193
79.3
14.0
7.9
5.7
14.3
5.8
6.0
0.0
18.4
15.5
5,665
87.9
10.9
5.6
4.3
10.6
3.4
4.9
-0.9
21.2
15.8
6,008
94.8
7.8
4.6
4.2
10.7
5.6
4.7
-4.6
24.1
16.0
6,297
100.9
6.5
3.7
3.5
5.3
3.0
5.1
-5.4
29.9
16.3
6,456
105.1
4.1
0.1
0.4
-1.7
0.4
5.4
-5.9
34.9
16.5
6,535
108.0
2.8
-0.5
-0.7
-3.9
0.9
6.2
-4.7
38.0
16.8
6,688
112.2
3.9
1.0
0.5
-2.6
1.8
6.2
-3.6
39.6
17.0
6,884
117.2
4.4
2.0
1.3
-0.3
2.6
6.0
-2.8
39.9
17.3
7,136
123.2
5.2
3.0
2.1
2.1
3.3
5.7
-1.9
40.1
3.3
3.6
4.28
5.4
4.5
4.53
4.2
5.1
4.53
2.7
2.7
4.53
3.7
3.6
5.18
3.5
4.0
4.45
3.3
3.3
4.60
2.6
2.9
5.23
2.3
2.4
5.62
1.9
2.1
6.01
-2.3
-1.6
-3.1
17.5
20.6
26.2
36.5
0.2
2.6
1.5
13.9
20.0
-0.5
-0.4
-2.1
22.3
24.4
27.6
18.7
0.6
3.0
1.5
15.4
19.4
-0.2
-0.2
-1.7
23.8
25.5
6.5
4.3
0.6
2.5
1.2
16.0
18.2
-1.0
-1.0
-2.3
24.8
27.1
4.6
6.6
0.7
4.4
1.9
18.8
19.8
-0.6
-0.6
-2.0
25.7
27.7
3.6
2.1
0.8
4.0
1.7
24.3
24.1
-3.0
-3.2
-3.0
19.9
22.9
-22.7
-17.4
3.3
1.7
28.5
27.2
-2.5
-2.7
-2.4
20.5
22.9
2.8
0.0
3.4
1.8
32.4
30.0
-2.3
-2.6
-2.0
21.2
23.2
3.6
1.5
4.0
2.1
33.5
29.9
-2.2
-2.6
-1.8
22.1
23.9
4.2
2.7
4.5
2.3
34.6
29.5
-2.2
-2.7
-1.7
23.1
24.8
4.8
4.0
5.1
2.5
35.7
28.9
Quarterly Data
Q3 14
3.3
4.2
Q4 14
2.6
3.7
Q1 15
3.3
3.8
Q2 15
1.0
4.9
Q3 15
-0.6
3.8
Q4 15
-2.4
3.5
Q1 16
-1.1
3.4
Q2 16
-0.6
3.2
Q3 16
-0.6
3.2
Q4 16
-0.9
3.3
Monthly Data
Economic Activity (IDEAC, ann. var. in %)
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %)
Feb-15
0.1
0.61
4.1
Mar-15
3.9
0.41
3.8
Apr-15
8.0
0.84
4.3
May-15
-13.8
0.18
4.6
Jun-15
-1.9
0.41
4.9
Jul-15
-2.6
-0.08
4.4
Aug-15
0.4
0.00
4.1
Sep-15
-0.7
0.26
3.8
Oct-15
-0.09
3.5
Nov-15
0.10
3.4
| 134
FOCUSECONOMICS
Ecuador
December 2015
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %
2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %

9
10
Ecuador
Latin America
World
6
5
3
0
-5
2000
Ecuador
Latin America
World
2005
2010
2015

6
Maximum
-3
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

8
Consensus
Minimum
4
2
0
0
Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
EIU
Humboldt Management
JPMorgan
Oxford Economics
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
CEPAL (Oct. 2015)
Real GDP
variation in %
2015
2016
1.6
1.8
-1.0
-3.6
0.0
-0.5
0.6
-1.2
-0.1
-1.9
-0.7
0.7
-0.9
0.1
0.0
-1.0
0.0
-1.5
1.6
1.9
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2015
2016
-5.9
-5.8
-8.6
-6.3
-5.5
-3.0
-5.8
-5.2
-6.1
-3.5
-4.7
-3.3
-5.1
-5.6
-5.8
-5.2
-1.0
1.6
0.0
0.1
-3.6
1.9
-0.8
-0.5
-8.6
-4.7
-5.8
-5.9
-6.3
-3.0
-5.2
-4.7
0.2
0.5
1.0
0.1
0.5
1.7
-6.1
-5.6
-5.3
-4.9
-4.3
-4.4
1.9
3.8
0.4
3.0
-0.6
0.8
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
-2
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-4
Jul
12
-4
Apr
Jul
Oct
Ecuador
Ecuador
Latin America
2005
Jan
16
4
2000
Oct
2010
2015
7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst

6.5
-8
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

-3
2015
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real
sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador)
and the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadstica
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2016
6.0
-4
5.5
-5
5.0
-6
4.5
-7
2015
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Notes and sources
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCE.

Source: BCE.
5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEC.
6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCE.
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18
months.
| 135
FOCUSECONOMICS
Ecuador
December 2015
Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate

9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %
10 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %
100
24
Ecuador
Ecuador
Latin America
Latin America
75
18
50
12
25
0
2000
2005
2010
2015

6
0
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

6
Maximum
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Jul
Oct
Jan
Minimum
Minimum
Consumer Price Index and Current Account
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Jan
Apr
Jul
3.0
4.4
3.3
3.5
2.2
4.0
3.5
3.3
-5.0
-1.8
-2.9
-3.0
-4.4
-0.6
-2.5
-2.5
3.6
3.8
4.0
3.3
3.4
3.7
-3.1
-3.4
-3.3
-2.5
-2.7
-2.5
3.7
2.5
Oct
30
20
10
-3
Oct
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
Credit Suisse
EIU
Humboldt Management
JPMorgan
Oxford Economics
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
CPI
Current Account
variation in %
% of GDP
2015
2016
2015
2016
3.3
4.0
-3.6
-3.3
3.0
2.2
-3.7
-3.7
4.0
3.5
-3.0
-3.5
3.0
3.1
-2.7
-1.5
3.4
2.3
-2.9
-1.7
3.3
3.9
-2.4
-2.5
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.0
-2.3
-0.6
3.9
2.5
-1.8
-1.3
4.4
3.5
-5.0
-4.4
Trade Balance
Imports
Exports
0
Ecuador
Latin America
-6
2000
2005
2010
-10
2000
2015
2005
2010
2015
Notes and sources

0
16 | Trade Balance | evol. of fcst

0
2015
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
2015
-5
2016
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-5
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
General:
monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco
Central del Ecuador) and the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto
Nacional de Estadstica y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
Source: INEC.
10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
(eop). Source: INEC.
13 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCE.
14 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: BCE.
16 Trade balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18
months.
| 136
FOCUSECONOMICS
Ecuador
December 2015
Fact Sheet
General Data
Ecuador in the Region
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Republic of Ecuador
Quito (2.2m)
Guayaquil (2.6m)
Cuenca (0.3m)
283,561
15.8
55.6
1.4
76.4
8.4
Spanish, Quechua
Metric system
GMT-5
Area (km2):
Language:
Measures:
Time:

Ecuador
1.3%
Ecuador
2.7%
Other
22.1%
Other
29.0%
Brazil
33.7%
Brazil
39.2%
Colombia
6.2%
Argentina
7.0%
Argentina
10.2%
Colombia
7.9%
Mexico
19.8%
Mexico
20.7%
Economic Structure
15.2
111
40.4
6.3

100
2005-07
2009-11
2011-13

120
Agriculture
2005-07
2009-11
2011-13
100
Net Exports
80
Energy (2012)
80
1,247
640
22.1
19.0
505
248
37.2
60
60
40
Other Industry
432
965
43,670
1,500
Guayaquil, Manta
40
Government
Consumption
20
20
Services
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Investment
Manufacturing
Private
Consumption
-20
Trade Structure
Other
13.9%
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Central Bank Governor:
Rafael Correa Delgado

17 February 2013
2017
Mateo Villalba Andrade
Strengths
Weaknesses
Substantial oil wealth

Dollarization provides safe
calculation base
High dependence on oil

revenues
Imports
Other
LatAm
16.3%

EU-27
10.7%
EU-27
12.2%
Outlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
Polarized political system

Government pledges to maintain High potential for social unrest
dollarization
.
.
U.S.A.
29.1%
Colombia
8.5%
Exports
Rating
B3
B
B
U.S.A.
44.6%
Chile
9.9%
Other
LatAm
11.8%
Agency
Moodys:
S&P:
Fitch Ratings:
Other
7.3%

Panama
6.8%
Peru
7.5%
China
12.9%

Other Asia
ex-Japan
8.4%
Food
29.9%
Other Manufact.
4.7% Products
7.9%
Food Other
7.9% 2.7%
Mineral
Fuels
15.3%
Exports
Imports
Mineral
Fuels
57.6%
Manufact.
Products
74.2%
| 137
FOCUSECONOMICS
Paraguay
December 2015
Paraguay
Outlook stable
Paraguay
Paraguays economy, which has been relatively resilient to the ongoing

downturn in commodity prices that has dragged down the economies
of many neighboring countries, seems to have started suffering as well.
Indeed, GDP growth decelerated significantly compared to the previous
quarter in Q2, expanding at its softest annual rate since Q4 2012. Low
soybeans prices, one of Paraguays key exports, have particularly affected
the external sectors contribution to growth through falling exports. The
IMAEP economic activity indicator suggests that growth might have been
even weaker through Q3. The IMAEP indicator tallied only a mild 1.4%
expansion in September, which marked the lowest reading since June 2012.

2011-13
6.7
26.2
3,928
5.6
-1.0
13.2
4.8
0.0
50.3
GDP (USD bn):
GDP growth (%):
Inflation (%):
2014-16
7.0
28.9
4,118
3.9
-2.1
19.1
4.3
-0.8
51.2
2017-19
7.4
33.4
4,518
3.9
-1.8
23.6
4.5
-0.6
51.0
Despite the expected slowdown this year due to weaknesses in the region
and spillovers from abroad, business-friendly tax incentives and steady
diversification are expected to drive growth going forward. Panelists
participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see the economy
growing 3.3% in 2015 and 4.0% in 2016.
Eric Denis
Inflation moderated from 3.7% in September to 3.2% in October, which
Economist
marked a four-month low. Panelists expect inflation to close 2015 at 3.6%

and accelerate to 4.3% in 2016.
1 | GDP | variation in %
15
10
3 | Inflation | in %
Paraguay
Latin America
World
20
Paraguay
Latin America
15
0
10
-4
5
Paraguay
-5
2000
2005
2010
2015
4 | GDP | evolution of forecasts

5.0
-8
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
6 | Inflation | evolution of forecasts
-1
-2
4.5
4.0
3.5
2015
3.0
Jul
Oct
2015
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-3
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
2015
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
2016
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
| 138
FOCUSECONOMICS
Paraguay
December 2015

Annual Data
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (PYG bn)
Unemployment (% of active population, eop)
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, aop)
External Sector
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
7 | Exchange Rate | PYG per USD
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
6.5
3,085
19.9
94,934
20.0
13.1
13.4
21.7
6.0
1.2
15.4
6.6
3,821
25.1
105,203
10.8
4.3
5.5
11.0
6.0
0.7
11.5
6.7
3,688
24.6
108,832
3.4
-1.2
4.8
-7.7
7.9
-1.8
14.0
6.8
4,275
29.0
124,853
14.7
14.2
4.7
11.9
6.5
-2.0
14.0
6.9
4,369
30.1
138,260
10.7
4.4
4.4
8.4
6.0
-2.3
14.1
7.0
4,083
28.6
148,354
7.3
3.3
4.0
6.2
6.4
-2.2
20.8
7.1
3,904
27.9
160,110
7.9
4.0
3.6
6.2
6.3
-1.9
22.2
7.3
4,104
29.8
173,282
8.2
3.9
3.7
5.9
6.6
-1.9
23.0
7.4
4,509
33.3
187,761
8.4
3.9
3.8
5.5
6.7
-1.8
23.6
7.5
4,941
37.1
204,002
8.6
3.8
3.9
5.1
6.7
-1.7
24.3
15.7
7.2
4.7
4.50
4,645
4,758
17.5
4.9
8.3
8.00
4,435
4,196
12.6
4.0
3.7
5.50
4,253
4,428
17.5
3.7
2.7
6.00
4,598
4,315
7.8
4.2
5.0
6.75
4,636
4,465
3.6
4.0
5.63
5,572
5,178
4.3
3.9
5.38
5,923
5,748
4.3
4.3
5.25
5,714
5,818
4.6
4.5
5.31
5,572
5,643
5.0
4.8
5.38
5,431
5,502
-0.5
-0.1
0.9
10.5
9.6
35.0
44.6
0.2
4.2
5.2
12.7
63.6
0.4
0.1
0.9
12.6
11.8
20.7
22.8
0.6
5.0
5.1
13.1
52.2
-2.0
-0.5
0.6
11.7
11.1
-7.8
-5.8
0.7
5.0
5.4
12.9
52.3
1.7
0.5
1.7
13.6
11.9
16.7
7.6
0.1
5.9
5.9
13.4
46.3
-0.3
-0.1
1.0
13.1
12.1
-3.6
1.1
0.2
6.9
6.8
14.2
47.2
-1.2
-0.3
0.8
12.6
11.7
-4.1
-2.8
6.7
6.8
14.4
50.4
-1.0
-0.3
1.0
13.4
12.4
6.5
5.6
6.9
6.6
15.6
56.1
-0.9
-0.3
1.2
14.4
13.1
7.2
5.8
7.3
6.6
16.2
54.3
-0.6
-0.2
1.5
15.5
14.0
7.8
6.4
7.7
6.7
16.9
50.9
-0.4
-0.1
1.8
16.8
15.0
8.3
7.1
8.2
6.6
17.7
47.7

10
8,000
Paraguay
Latin America
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2000
2005
2010
2015
9 | PYG per USD | evolution of fcst

6,000
2015
-5
2000
2015
5,200
4,800
-1
-2
Oct
Jan
Apr
2015
Notes and sources
2016
Jul
2010
5,600
4,400
2005
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
2016
Apr
Jul
Oct
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All data
are from Central Bank (BCP, Banco Central del Paraguay) and Thomson
Reuters. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCP.
2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCP.
Source: BCP.
4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
6 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18
months.
7 Exchange rate, PYG per USD (eop). Thomson Reuters.
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCP.
months.
| 139
FOCUSECONOMICS
Paraguay
December 2015
Fact Sheet
General Data
Paraguay in the Region
Official name:
Capital:
Other cities:
Republic of Paraguay
Asuncin (0.6m)
Ciudad del Este (0.2m)
Pedro Juan Caballero (0.1m)
Area (km2):
406,752
6.9
17.0
1.2
76.8
6.1
Language:
Spanish, Guaran
Measures:
Metric system
Time:
GMT-4
Paraguay
0.5%
Other
23.3%
Other
30.6%
Brazil
33.6%
Colombia
6.3%
Argentina
7.0%
Argentina
9.0%
Colombia
7.9%
Mexico
19.8%
Mexico
21.6%
5.9
104
36.9
1.6

100
2005-07
2008-10
2011-13
Energy (2012)
567
460
59.6
8.1
27.1
3.9
Political Data
2008-10
2011-13
Net Exports
80
Manufacturing
60
40
Other Industry
20
Services
Investment
60
40
Government
Consumption
20
Private
Consumption
Trade Structure
Other
8.8%
Horacio Cartes
21 April 2013
2018
Carlos Fernndez Valdovinos
2005-07
Agriculture
799
36.0
32,059
3,100
Asuncin

100
80
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
Brazil
39.2%
Economic Structure
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Paraguay
1.1%
Russia
10.1%

MENA
6.1%
Other
15.9%
EU-27
15.1%

exAsia
Japan
6.7%
Exports
Other
LatAm
9.9%
Chile
5.6%
U.S.A.
6.5%
EU-27
8.3%
Imports
Argentina
14.2%
China
28.5%
Argentina
7.6%
Agency
Moodys:
S&P:
Fitch Ratings:
Rating
Ba1
BB
BB
Outlook
Stable
Positive
Stable
Strengths
Weaknesses
Favorable conditions for

agriculture
Vulnerability to commodity price

variation
Commitment to structural
reforms
Dependence on neighboring
economies
.
Brazil
26.6%
Brazil
30.1%

Other
1.5%
Other
2.8%
Manufact.
Products
8.2%
Exports
Food
7.8%
Mineral
Fuels
14.5%
Food
60.8%
Mineral
Fuels
28.3%
Imports
Manufact.
Products
76.2%
| 140
FOCUSECONOMICS
Uruguay
December 2015
Uruguay
Outlook moderates
Uruguay
Multinational oil companies are investing in Uruguays offshore oil sector.

GDP (USD bn):
GDP growth (%):
Inflation (%):
2011-13
3.4
52.7
15,576
4.5
-2.0
58.7
8.3
-4.2
39.4
2014-16
3.4
54.3
15,908
2.5
-3.3
63.2
8.8
-4.0
46.6
2017-19
3.5
61.3
17,770
3.1
-2.4
61.1
7.5
-3.8
45.8
Exxon Mobil and Frances Total recently acquired a lease on a block

of ocean 400 km off the coast of Uruguay and are set to begin drilling
work on Uruguays first offshore well in early 2016. Uruguays La Paloma
port will be developed in order to accommodate the needs of the drilling
process. Uruguay has attempted to develop its offshore energy sector
through a series of bidding rounds that were initiated in 2009. Recently
however, prices for commodities including oil have fallen, and it is unclear
as to when, or by how much, the price will increase. While this has led
some major players such as BP dropping out of the bidding process,
others are still actively involved.
Tapping into Uruguays offshore potential should have a positive impact

on growth prospects, although investments are subject to swings in the
global market for oil. Meanwhile, weakness in neighboring Brazil and
Argentina will weigh on export growth. Panelists surveyed for this months
LatinFocus report expect GDP to increase 2.0% in 2015. For 2016, they
also expect GDP growth of 2.0%, which is down 0.1 percentage points
from last months forecast.
Inflation inched up from 9.2% in October to 9.5% in November. Authorities

aim to prevent inflation from reaching 10.0%, as this would trigger new
wage negotiations. Our panelists expect inflation to end 2015 at 9.1%.
For 2016, the panel expects inflation of 8.7%.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production observes largest contraction in

17 months
Industrial production deteriorated further in September and recorded the largest
contraction since April last year, falling 5.8% in annual terms. Septembers
result followed Augusts 1.2% contraction. The decrease reflected a broad
decrease among the components of the index, with clothing production
showing the largest decline.
Robert Hill
Economist

20
Year-on-year
Annual average
Excluding the contribution of the La Teja refinerythe countrys only oil

refinery and a key contributor to overall productionindustrial output inched
up 0.1%, which contrasted the 3.1% decrease tallied in August. The trend
continues to point downward: annual average variation in industrial output fell
from 6.7% in August to 5.2% in September.
10
%
0
-10
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production

in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.
Panelists surveyed for this months LatinFocus report expect industrial

production to increase 4.6% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points
from last months forecast. For 2016, the panel sees industrial output growth
at 3.2%, which is unchanged from last months Consensus.
| 141
FOCUSECONOMICS
Uruguay
December 2015
The government expects GDP growth of 2.5% in both 2015 and 2016.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect GDP to
expand 2.0% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last months
Consensus. For 2016, the panel sees the economy also growing 2.0%, which
is also down 0.1 percentage points from last months estimate.
3.0
11.0

Month-on-month expectations (left scale)
10.0
2.0
%
1.0
9.0
0.0
8.0
-1.0
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
7.0
Nov-15
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Expectations

of monthly variations of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and Uruguay Central Bank (BCU).
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation ticks up in November

came in below the 0.6% rise tallied in October. According to the Statistical
Institute, Novembers increase mainly resulted from higher prices in the
recreation and culture component of the index.
Inflation ticked up from 9.2% in October to 9.5% in November. As a result,
inflation remained well above the Central Banks target range of 3.0%7.0%.
Annual average inflation inched up from 8.5% in October to 8.6% in November,
which marked the highest reading in nine months.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect inflation
to close 2015 at 9.1%, which is unchanged from last months projection. For
2016, panelists see inflation easing to 8.7%, which is up 0.1 percentage points
from last months forecast.
| 142
FOCUSECONOMICS
Uruguay
December 2015

Annual Data
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (UYU bn)
Money (annual variation of M1+ in %)
Average Deposit Rate (%, aop)
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop)
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, aop)
External Sector
Exports (USD bn)
Imports (USD bn)
Quarterly Data
Monthly Data
Money (annual variation of M1+ in %)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
3.4
12,213
41.0
808
13.1
7.8
9.5
16.0
3.5
7.0
-1.1
59.4
3.4
14,248
48.0
926
14.6
5.2
7.2
7.0
0.5
6.3
-0.9
58.1
3.4
15,380
52.0
1,044
12.7
3.3
5.0
18.5
5.8
6.3
-2.7
57.9
3.4
17,099
58.0
1,178
12.9
5.1
5.2
4.3
4.1
6.5
-2.3
60.2
3.4
16,745
57.0
1,336
13.4
3.5
4.2
2.6
1.1
6.6
-3.5
61.3
3.4
15,933
54.4
1,477
10.6
2.0
2.6
0.1
4.6
7.1
-3.4
63.6
3.4
15,045
51.6
1,639
11.0
2.0
2.7
2.1
3.2
7.3
-3.2
64.8
3.4
15,993
55.0
1,819
11.0
2.7
3.0
2.5
3.3
6.9
-2.7
63.2
3.5
17,722
61.1
2,012
10.6
3.1
3.3
2.8
3.7
6.7
-2.4
61.1
3.5
19,594
67.8
2,220
10.3
3.6
3.6
3.1
4.0
6.4
-2.0
58.9
30.0
6.9
6.7
4.77
19.9
19.5
20.8
8.6
8.1
5.47
19.9
19.6
11.2
7.5
8.1
5.15
19.2
19.5
15.0
8.5
8.6
5.09
21.1
19.1
3.7
8.3
8.9
8.49
24.4
22.2
8.1
9.1
8.6
5.40
29.8
27.1
7.7
8.7
8.9
5.75
33.1
31.8
7.5
7.9
8.3
5.91
33.0
33.1
7.4
7.1
7.5
6.04
32.8
32.9
7.2
6.3
6.7
6.17
32.7
32.7
-1.8
-0.7
-0.5
8.0
8.6
25.6
24.1
2.3
7.7
10.8
18.4
45.0
-2.7
-1.3
-1.4
9.3
10.7
15.5
25.1
2.5
10.3
11.5
18.3
38.2
-5.0
-2.6
-2.4
9.9
12.3
6.9
14.7
2.5
13.6
13.3
21.1
40.6
-4.9
-2.8
-1.4
10.3
11.6
3.4
-5.4
3.0
16.3
16.9
22.9
39.4
-4.5
-2.5
-1.0
10.3
11.3
0.9
-2.6
2.8
17.8
18.9
24.2
42.4
-3.9
-2.1
-1.1
9.3
10.4
-10.1
-8.1
17.6
20.3
25.2
46.3
-3.6
-1.9
-1.0
9.6
10.6
3.3
2.0
17.7
20.1
26.3
51.0
-3.7
-2.0
-0.8
10.0
10.8
4.3
1.8
18.8
20.9
26.7
48.6
-3.8
-2.4
-0.6
10.7
11.3
6.6
4.5
20.2
21.5
28.0
45.7
-4.0
-2.7
-0.5
11.6
12.1
8.9
7.2
21.7
21.5
29.2
43.1
Q3 14
3.7
8.4
24.8
Q4 14
3.3
8.3
24.4
Q1 15
4.5
7.6
25.7
Q2 15
-0.1
8.5
27.0
Q3 15
2.3
9.1
29.1
Q4 15
1.7
9.1
29.8
Q1 16
1.6
9.0
31.0
Q2 16
2.5
9.0
32.1
Q3 16
2.2
8.7
32.6
Q4 16
2.0
8.7
33.1
Feb-15
5.6
7.1
6.5
1.1
7.4
24.6
Mar-15
14.2
7.3
15.1
0.7
7.6
25.7
Apr-15
8.8
8.1
6.3
0.6
8.2
26.3
May-15
5.7
7.4
9.7
0.5
8.4
26.9
Jun-15
5.9
7.4
9.1
0.5
8.5
27.0
Jul-15
7.3
7.0
6.9
1.2
9.0
28.4
Aug-15
-1.2
7.6
7.6
1.2
9.5
28.5
Sep-15
-5.8
8.0
2.3
0.7
9.1
29.1
Oct-15
9.0
0.6
9.2
29.4
Nov-15
0.4
9.5
29.6
| 143
FOCUSECONOMICS
Uruguay
December 2015
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %
2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %
10
4
0
2
-5
Uruguay
Latin America
World
-10
2000
2005
2010
Oct
Jan
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Uruguay
Latin America
World
-2
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015
Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
CINVE
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Equipos Consultores
HSBC
Iecon - UdelaR
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Oikos
Oxford Economics
Repblica AFAP
Santander
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
Government (Aug. 2015)
Real GDP
variation in %
2015
2016
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.5
0.9
1.4
2.3
2.0
1.9
1.6
2.5
2.2
2.6
3.2
1.3
0.9
2.5
2.6
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.5
2.0
1.5
2.0
2.6
1.8
1.5
2.5
2.5
2.0
Fiscal Balance
% of GDP
2015
2016
-3.3
-3.2
-3.1
-2.7
-3.5
-3.4
-3.9
-3.4
-3.3
-3.0
-3.7
-3.5
-3.5
-3.2
-3.5
-3.0
-3.5
-3.3
-3.2
-3.1
-3.2
-3.0
0.9
2.7
2.1
2.0
0.9
3.2
2.0
2.0
-3.9
-3.1
-3.5
-3.4
-3.5
-2.7
-3.2
-3.2
2.1
2.4
2.6
2.1
2.4
2.6
-3.4
-3.3
-3.2
-3.1
-3.0
-3.0
2.6
2.5
2.5
3.1
2.2
2.5

2
20
Uruguay
Latin America
15
-2
-4
10
-6
5
2000
2005
2010
2015
7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst

7.3
-8
2000
Latin America
2005
2010
2015

-2.0
2015
2016
2015
7.0
2016
-2.5
6.7
6.4
Uruguay
-3.0
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
-3.5
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Notes and sources

General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real
sector data are from the from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto
Nacional de Estadistica) and the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central
de Uruguay). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCU.
Source: BCU.
5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.
6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCU.
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18
months.
| 144
FOCUSECONOMICS
Uruguay
December 2015
Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate

9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %
30
10 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %
20
Uruguay
Latin America
15
10
10
0
2000
2005
2010
Uruguay
Latin America
20
5
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
2015

11
10
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
10
8
8
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
13 | Exchange Rate | UYU per USD
30
25
20
-2
15
-4
2005
2010
2015
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
BBVA Research
BMI Research
BofA Merrill Lynch
Capital Economics
CINVE
Deutsche Bank
EIU
Equipos Consultores
HSBC
Iecon - UdelaR
Ita BBA
JPMorgan
Oikos
Oxford Economics
Repblica AFAP
Santander
Summary
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Consensus
History
30 days ago
60 days ago
90 days ago
IMF (Oct. 2015)
CPI
Exchange Rate
variation in %
UYU per USD
2015
2016
2015
2016
9.2
8.5
31.0
33.7
8.4
9.8
29.5
31.0
9.0
8.5
30.0
34.0
8.5
8.0
9.6
9.4
8.4
8.1
9.3
7.4
28.7
30.6
9.5
10.3
29.6
34.6
8.3
8.1
9.7
9.3
30.6
33.6
9.4
9.1
29.6
34.7
9.6
9.5
29.5
35.0
9.1
8.5
30.8
34.0
9.5
8.0
30.0
33.0
8.6
8.1
28.7
30.3
9.5
9.3
8.6
8.0
8.3
9.7
9.2
9.1
7.4
10.3
8.5
8.7
28.7
31.0
29.6
29.8
30.3
35.0
33.7
33.1
9.1
9.0
8.7
8.6
8.4
8.1
30.0
29.8
28.8
32.8
32.3
31.2
9.0
7.9
35
10
2000
Jul
Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate
Uruguay
Latin America
-6
2000
2005
2010
2015
Notes and sources

15 | UYU per USD | evol. of fcst
34

-3.0
2015
2016
32
-3.5
30
-4.0
28
-4.5
26
-5.0
24
-5.5
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
2015
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
2016
Oct
General:
monetary and external sector data are from the from the National Statistical
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica), the Central Bank (BCU,
Banco Central de Uruguay) and Thomson Reuters. See below for details.
Source: INE.
10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
(eop). Source: INE.
13 Exchange rate, UYU per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.
14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCU.
months.
| 145
FOCUSECONOMICS
Uruguay
December 2015
Fact Sheet
General Data
Uruguay in the Region
Official name:
Oriental Republic
of Uruguay
Montevideo (1.7 m)
Canelones (0.4 m)
Maldonado (0.1 m)
176,215
3.4
19.3
0.3
76.8
1.9
Spanish
Metric system
GMT-3
Capital:
Other cities:
Area (km2):
Language:
Measures:
Time:
Uruguay
0.6%
Uruguay
1.0%
Other
31.2%
Other
23.1%
Brazil
33.6%
Brazil
39.1%
Colombia
6.3%
Argentina
9.0%
Argentina
7.0%
Colombia
7.9%
Mexico
19.8%
Mexico
21.5%
Economic Structure
30.8
155
58.1
21.1

100
2005-07
2008-10
2011-13

120
Agriculture
2005-07
2008-10
2011-13
100
Net Exports
80
Energy (2012)
80
62.0
168
10.3
9.6
1.2
50.0
7.6
60
60
40
Other Industry
133
1,641
77,732
1,600
Montevideo
Services
MENA
5.7%
Argentina
6.1%
Rating
Baa2
BBB
BBB-
Weaknesses
Commited to free market

economic policy
Strong natural resource
endowment
Privatization and deregulation

lagging
Dependence on neighboring
economies
Small domestic market
EU-27
15.2%
Argentina
13.1%

EU-27
15.3%
Imports
Brazil
15.0%
Other
LatAm
15.5%
U.S.A.
12.7%
Other
11.6%
China
21.3%
Exports
Outlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
Strengths
Brazil
16.8%
Agency
Moodys:
S&P:
Fitch Ratings:
Private
Consumption
Trade Structure
Other
19.3%
Tabar Vzquez
30 November 2014
26 October 2019
Alberto Graa
Government
Consumption
-20
Political Data
President:
Last elections:
Next elections:
40
20
20
Airports:
Railways (km):
Roadways (km):
Waterways (km):
Chief Ports:
Investment
Manufacturing
Other
LatAm
9.0%
Other Asia
ex-Japan
6.5%
China
16.8%
Other
2.2%
Manufact.
Products
26.0%
Mineral
Fuels
22.5%
Exports
Food
63.4%
Agric.
Raw Mat.
8.3%
Other
13.2%
Imports
Manufact.
Products
64.3%
| 146
FOCUSECONOMICS
Notes and Statements
Notes
December 2015
PUBLICATION NOTE
COPYRIGHT NOTE
Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of

economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our
monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to
the annual figures due to different forecast panels.
Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction,

transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any
means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written
consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please
cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International
Copyright Conventions.
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to

economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and
include the following countries:
Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil,
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador,
El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and
Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.
Andean Community (4 countries): Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador
and Peru.
Central America and Caribbean (12 countries): Belize, Costa
Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti,
Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and
Tobago.
Mercosur (5 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay
and Venezuela.
The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication

of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or
FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:
FocusEconomics S.L.
Gran Via 657
E-08010 Barcelona
Spain
tel: +34 932 651 040
fax: +34 932 650 804
e-mail: info@focus-economics.com
web: http://www.focus-economics.com
Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the

latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast (Forecast) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics
and the participating panelists (Information Providers) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate,
complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The
Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this
information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of
their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment
objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any
transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the
Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.
| 147
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is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.
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KEY INDICATORS INCLUDE
REAL SECTOR
GDP per capita
Economic Growth
Consumption
Investment
Industrial Production
Unemployment Rate
Fiscal Balance
Public Debt
EXTERNAL SECTOR
Current Account
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
International Reserves
External Debt
MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR

Money
Inflation Rate
Policy Interest Rate
Exchange Rate
127 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS

ASEAN Countries Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand & Vietnam; Australia,
New Zealand
East & South Asia Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka & Taiwan; Australia, New Zealand
Central America Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama,
& Caribbean Puerto Rico & Trinidad and Tobago
Latin America Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela
Central & Eastern Europe Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia & Slovenia
CIS Countries Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan; Georgia,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine
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Major Economies G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom & United States), plus an overview of the BRIC
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North Africa Tunisia, United Arab Emirates & Yemen
Sub-Saharan Africa Angola, Botswana, Cote dIvoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa,
Tanzania, Uganda & Zambia
FocusEconomics | Gran Via 657, 08010, Barcelona, Spain | +34 932 651 040 | subscribers@focus-economics.com | www.focus-economics.com

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LATINFOCUS

PUBLICATION DATE 7 December 2015

ARMANDO CICCARELLI TERESA KERSTING

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Real GDP, annual variation in %

Consumer Prices, annual variation in %

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in %

Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP

Current Account, % of GDP

Current Account Balance, % of GDP

Regional outlook deteriorates

Change in GDP forecasts

Note: GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

Elections and significant political events took center stage at the