Hazard and

Risk Analysis
Tools

[American stuntmen are smart - they think about safety. When they do
a jump in a car, they calculate everything: the speed, the distance...
But in Hong Kong, we don't know how to count. Everything we do is a
guess. If you've got the guts, you do it. All of my stuntmen have gotten
hurt. ]
Jackie Chan.

Overview of Risk Assessment

Hazard
A potentially harmful source or situation in which may cause
injury, fatality or health effects to user , property damages or
environmental damages; or any combinations of the effects

Risk
A combination of the likelihood of an occurrence of a hazardous
event with specified period or in specified circumstances and
the severity of injury or damage to the health of people,
property, environment or any combination of these caused by
the event

Risk = Probability of Hazard Occurrence

X
Severity of Hazard

Who will carry out

By:

risk assessment??

Person or persons trained to

identify hazard and risk
assessment
Legally competent person
E.g. : CIMAH assessor,
Chemical Health Risk
Assessor

With

Consultation with an
involvement of workers
Safety and health
committee
Area representatives
Supervisors

Safety Analysis
1.Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk
Control (HIRARC)
2.Fault Tree Analysis
3.Event Tree Analysis

1
Hazard Identification, Risk
Assessment and Risk Control

(HIRARC)

HIRARC
One of the general duties as prescribed under the Occupational
Safety and Health Act 1994 (Act 514) for the employer.

The specific purpose of HIRARC are as follows:a.

to identify all the factors that may cause harm to
employees and others (the hazards);
b.
to consider what the chances are of that harm actually be
falling anyone in
the circumstances of a particular case and
the possible severity that could
come from it (the risks); and
c.
to enable employers to plan, introduce and monitor
preventive measures to
ensure that the risks are
adequately controlled at all times.

When / Where to apply?

HIRARC activities shall be plan and conducted
a. for situation
i. where hazard appear to pose significant threat;
ii. uncertain whether existing controls are adequate; or/and
iii. before implementing corrective or preventive measures.
b. by organization intending to continuously improve Occupational
Safety and Health (OSH) Management System.

HAZARD IDENTIFICATION, RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK CONTROL

(HIRARC)
Basic Component of Risk Management

Hazard Identification
Risk Assessment
Risk Control
Review

Hazard Identification

Sources of Hazards

Man Human behavior, Unsafe Act

Machinery Installation, layout and design of
equipment
Materials substances such as chemicals and gases
use in the workplace
Method the way people carry out their work
Medium workplace condition i.e. air quality,
ventilation, lighting, noise, vibration etc

Methods of Identifying Hazards

Document Review:
Incident records
Monitoring records
Medical surveillance records
Workplace Inspection
Hazard at workplace (existing &
potential)
Existing control (engineering,
administrative, PPE)

Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment Approaches

Determining Severity and Likelihood of Hazard
Occurrence in three types of approach:

Quantitative
Semi Quantitative
Qualitative

Determining Severity

Severity in terms of:

Harm to health
Damage to property
Damage to environment
Or combination of above

Determining Likelihood

Likelihood of hazard occurring

based on:
Number of times activities
performed
Number of times of hazard
occurrences

1. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH

Severity Level

Likelihood Level

Example of risk matrix

Priority Action

2. QUALITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH

SEVERITY

LIKELIHOOD
Highly
unlikely

Unlikely

Likely

Highly
Likely

Negligible

Low

Low

Medium

Medium

Minor

Low

Medium

Medium

High

Major

Medium

Medium

Medium

High

Fatality

Medium

High

High

High

3. SEMI-QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

APPROACH
SEVERITY

LIKELIHOOD
Yearly

Monthly

Weekly

Daily

First Aid and

Near Misses

Less than or
4 days MC

More than 4
days MC

12

Fatality &
Permanent
disability

12

16

Decision For Action

Risk level action and timescale
Trivial
No action is required and no documentary records need
to be kept
Moderate
Effort should be made to reduce the risk. Risk reduction
measure should be implemented within a defined time
period
Intolerable
Work should not be started or continued until the risk has
been reduced. If it is not possible to reduce risk even
with unlimited resources, work has to remain prohibited

Risk Control

Consideration in Implementing
Risk Control
Review measures regularly; modify if
necessary
Comply with national laws and
regulations
Reflect good management practice
Consider the current stage of knowledge
Include information or reports from
organizations such as DOSH and others

Hierarchy of Control
Most effective
Elimination

Fairly Effective
Substitution
Isolation
Engineering control

Least effective
Administration Control
PPE

Types of Control
1. Engineering control
modifying, redesigning or replacing:
work stations and work areas
materials/objects/containers design
and handling
hand tools & equipment
Ventilation system
Process flow
Automation
3. PPE
last resort when neither engineering
nor administrative controls are
possible, or in the event of
emergencies
PPE simply reduces the amount of
hazardous exposure by placing a
barrier between the hazard and the
worker.

2. Administrative control
Proper maintenance and
housekeeping
Job rotation and enlargement
Work scheduling
Sufficient breaks
Work practice
Training

Process flow of HIRARC implementation

Hazard Identification
List down the steps to complete a
task
identify possibility of hazard in
every step
List down the hazards

Risk Control
List down the new/ additional
safety control required
Refer to hierarchy of control
Priority must be given to
engineering control. PPE the last
choice
Finalize

Risk Assessment
List down safety control available
(eg: Emergency switch, SOP, fire
ext) at the workplace
Determine the existing type of
control
-Eliminate
-Replace
-Engineering Control
-Administrative control
-PPE
Assessment
Scoring

Example HIRARC

QUIZ#2
First-year students are required to take basic engineering skills class, which involves
the sheet metal forming workshop. In this session, each students are required to
fabricate a tool box made of Aluminum sheets. Prepare HIRRC analysis to access the
possible hazards and risks for this workshop
No
1
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10

Work activities
Retrieving aluminum sheet from container
Measuring and dimension marking using steel rulers and scrapers
Shearing with shearing machine
Cutting with scissors
Bending ( hammer, anvil, clamp, shearing machine)
Assembling parts (with hammer, anvil, pliers)
Indenting(hammer, indenter)
Drilling(hand drill, g clamp, pliers)
Riveting (hand rivet, nails)
Housekeeping (arrange tools, sweep off the chips, cleaning the
machine)

2
Fault Tree Analysis

Fault-Tree Analysis
-Fault tree analysis concentrate on the end result, which is
usually an accident or some other adverse consequence.
-Accident are caused at least as often by the procedural errors as
by equipment failures, and fault-tree analysis consider all cases;
procedural and equipment.
-The term fault tree arises from the appearance of the logic
diagram that is used to analyze the probabilities associated with
the various causes and their effects.
-The leaves and branches of the fault tree are the myriad
individual circumstances or events that can contribute to an
accident.
-The base or trunk of the tree is the catastrophic accident or other
undesirable result being studied.

Fault-Tree Analysis
FTA Logic
and Event Symbols

OR gate

Undeveloped
event

AND gate
Top event
Intermediate
event
Basic event

External or
house event

Transfer
IN-OUT

Fault-Tree
Analysis
Fault
Tree
Fault tree: top-down approach starting with the
unwanted consequences as the top event &
identifying all factors that could contribute to the
top event.
Used to think through possible causes of a loss,
to find most probable sequence of events
leading to the loss & to quantify the probability
of loss.

Fault-Tree
Analysis
Steps:
Fault
Tree
To draw a fault tree take the following steps:
1.

Determine undesirable event, which is to be the

Top Event.

2.

Determine the Basic Events, which could

immediately cause the Top Event.

3.

Determine the relationship between the Basic

Events and the Top Event in terms of AND and OR
gates.

4.

Determine whether any of the Basic Events need

further analysis, if so repeat steps 2 & 3.

EXAMPLE1
AND Gate Example
Consider a system with two components A and
B. The system fails if both A and B fail. Draw the
fault tree diagram for the system.

EXAMPLE2
OR Gate Example
Consider a system with three components A, B
and C. The system fails if either A, B or C fails.
Draw the fault tree block diagram for the system.

Example 3
Consider a case of a overheated motor. The Basic
Events could be the primary motor fails or excessive
current load to the motor.
The current load might be excessive due to excess
current flow in the circuit and failure of the fuse.
It could be either short circuiting or a power surge
that contributed to the excess current flow.

Motor Overheated

Example: Fault Tree

OR

Excessive
Current to
Motor

Primary
Motor
Failure
A

AND

Excess
Current In
Circuit

Fuse
Fails

The probability of the Top Event

(the motor overheated) is
obtained by combining the base
events according to the logic
rules:
For this case, probability
= [(C+D) x B] + A

OR

For an OR gate (ADD

the probabilities)

Short
circuit

Power
Surge

For an AND gate

(MULTIPLY the value)

SOLUTION

Motor Overheated

OR

0.051

Excessive
Current to Motor

Primary
Motor
Failure
0.05

The probability of the Top Event

(the motor overheated) is
obtained by combining the base
events according to the logic
rules:

0.001

AND

For this case, probability

of motor overheated is:

Excess
Current In
Circuit

Fuse
Fails
0.1

OR

0.01

Short
circuit

Power
Surge

0.007

0.003

= [(0.007+0.003) x 0.1] +
0.05
= 0.051

Fault-Tree Diagram

OR

AND

AND

AND

Fault-Tree Diagram - example

Example of Fault-tree analysis

QUIZ # 2
The Fire Protection System failed to function in the recent fire tragedy in Company XYZ . The
case could be caused by either failure of Fire Detection System or Water Deluge System failure.
The Fire Detection System failure could be resulted from smoke detector malfunction and heat
detector malfunction, while the Water Deluge System Failure probably caused by pump
malfunction or blocked nozzles. The probability of occurrences of each event is listed below:
Smoke detector fail
Heat detector fail
Pump fail
Nozzle fail

=
=
=
=

0.06
0.04
0.007
0.01

Based on the case study, construct a Fault Tree Analysis. Calculate the probability of Fire
Protection System failure

3
Event Tree Analysis

Event Tree Analysis

Graphical model that identifies possible outcomes from
a given initiating event.
Suited for complex processes involving several layers of
safety systems.
First: Identify an initiating event that could lead to failure
of the system (e.g. human error, utility failure etc.)
Second: Identify intermediate events/action which
resulted from the initiating event (usually are safety
features).
Each intermediate event leads to two branches, one for
a successful, and the other for an unsuccessful
operation.

Event Tree Analysis

To analyse risk of possible consequences of an initiating

event or failure

Starting with initiating event which might produce variety

of consequences depending on subsequent event

Can be used to investigate the feasible outcome of an

event and estimate relative probability of each outcome

Event Tree Analysis

1st step: Initiating event column.
2nd step: Subsequent events (usually branches in to 2 paths
(YES it will happen or NO it wont). These events might be
more than one, hence need to list all.
3rd step: Two columns drawn for overall
outcome/consequence and to calculate its
probability.

P-2
Fails

Low
Flow
Alarm
Sounds

Operator
Responds
OK

P-1
Starts

System
Success

0.995
0.952
0.998

0.945 Y

Y
N

Y
N
X
N

An Event Tree Analysis for a Fluid Flow Problem

0.005 N

0.048 N

0.002 N

Total
1.00

Event
Tree Analysis
Example
2
Consider the event of a steering wheel failure (initiating event).
Suppose that there is a 50% chance that the driver is able to
counter the failure and control the steering safely.
If he/she cannot correct the failure, there may be a collision with
another car. There is also the possibility that driver himself might
crash into the steering wheel upon impact.
The probability of a collision with another car is 0.2 and the
probability of the driver crashing into the steering wheel is 0.3.
Construct an event tree to determine the probabilities of events
that could occur should there be a steering wheel failure.

Example: Event Tree

A
B
Correct Avoid
Steering Collision

C
Avoid
Injury

Consequences

Probability

Able to control the

steering

Collision Avoided

YES
STEERING

Avoid collision

FAILS
A = 0.5

B = 0.8
YES

YES C = 0.7 Collision Avoided

0.28

NO

0.12

NO
Fail to control

C = 0.3 Injury to Self

Only collision,
no injury

B = 0.2
NO
Collision occur

0.50

YES C = 0.7 Collision

0.07

NO

0.03

C = 0.3 Collision + Injury

Collision occur+
driver injured

1.00

TUTORIAL

Example 3

Tutorial 3
Numbers of explosions case forecasted to be
happen in various industries in the USA
annually. 80% of the explosions are expected
to set up fire.
Based on this data, every industries installed
excellent Fire Alarm System at their place so
that the reliability of the sprinkler to
function is 99% and the probability of alarm
not activated is 0.1%
Construct an event tree to determine the
Consequences & Probabilities of events
that could occur from a case of explosion.

0.01x0.1

1-0.001

Exercise
Consider the event of a forklifts crane failure (initiating event).
Mr. D is retracting the forklifts fork to store overload items at a
storage located 20 feet from ground. Suddenly the forklifts crane
fails. Suppose that there is a 40% chance that the driver is able to
retract the fork safely.
If he fail to do so, the items which the forklift is carrying will drop
on to the ground. There is also the possibility that crane might crash
on to the driver.
The probability of dropping the item is 0.6 and the probability of
the crane hit the driver is 0.45.
Construct an event tree to determine the probabilities of events that
could occur from a forklift crane failure.

Questions??
What are the differences between
a fault tree and an event tree?
What are the advantages or
disadvantages of the fault tree or
event tree methods?

Summary

End of
Lecture

DAH HABIS

Thank You
To be continued on next lecture