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Report for 2016-05-31 Oil Survey

1. What percent probability do you place on an OPEC


production freeze agreement at the meeting on June 2?
(0%=No chance of production freeze, 100%=Certainty
of production freeze)
60 % : 0 .0 %
70 % : 0 .0 %
80 % : 0 .0 %
90 % : 0 .0 %
10 0 % : 0 .0 %
50 % : 9.1%

0 % : 40 .9%

30 % : 0 .0 %
40 % : 0 .0 %
20 % : 18.2%

10 % : 31.8%

Value

Percent

0%

40.9%

10%

31.8%

20%

18.2%

30%

0.0%

40%

0.0%

50%

9.1%

60%

0.0%

70%

0.0%

80%

0.0%

90%

0.0%

100%

0.0%

2. If there is no agreement in Vienna, do you think Saudi


Arabia and Iran will be the holdout countries again?
Do n 't kn o w/u n su re: 4.5%
No : 9.1%

Yes: 86.4%

Value

Percent

Yes

86.4%

No

9.1%

Do n't kno w/unsure

4.5%

3. Where do you see WTI's price at the end of this year?

Do n 't kn o w/u n su re: 0 .0 %

Belo w $20 : 0 .0 %

Mo re th an $60 : 9.1%

Between $20 -$30 : 0 .0 %


Between $30 -$40 : 4.5%

Between $50 -$60 : 36.4%


Between $40 -$50 : 50 .0 %

Value

Percent

Belo w $20

0.0%

Between $20-$30

0.0%

Between $30-$40

4.5%

Between $40-$50

50.0%

Between $50-$60

36.4%

Mo re than $60

9.1%

Do n't kno w/unsure

0.0%

4. Where do you see Brent's price at the end of this


year?

Do n 't kn o w/u n su re: 0 .0 %

Belo w $20 : 0 .0 %

Mo re th an $60 : 9.1%

Between $20 -$30 : 0 .0 %


Between $30 -$40 : 4.5%

Between $40 -$50 : 36.4%

Between $50 -$60 : 50 .0 %

Value

Percent

Belo w $20

0.0%

Between $20-$30

0.0%

Between $30-$40

4.5%

Between $40-$50

36.4%

Between $50-$60

50.0%

Mo re than $60

9.1%

Do n't kno w/unsure

0.0%

5. Do you believe a supply rebalance is occurring now?


If not, when do you expect it to happen?
Do n 't kn o w/u n su re: 4.5%
Q 3 o r Q 4 20 17: 0 .0 %
20 18 o r later: 0 .0 %
Q 2 20 17: 9.1%
Q 1 20 17: 9.1%

No w: 36.4%

Q 4 20 16: 22.7%

Q 3 20 16: 18.2%

Value

Percent

No w

36.4%

Q3 2016

18.2%

Q4 2016

22.7%

Q1 2017

9.1%

Q2 2017

9.1%

Q3 o r Q4 2017

0.0%

2018 o r later

0.0%

Do n't kno w/unsure

4.5%

6. At what oil price do you expect US shale producers to


...
$40 $45

$45$50

$50 $55

$55$60

Above
$60

Don't
know/unsure

Begin to return to
drilling?

0.0%

22.7%

36.4%

27.3%

13.6%

0.0%

Resum e m o st
pro ductio n?

0.0%

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

45.0%

10.0%

7. If the shale producers do pump more crude, what will


that do to prices?

Do n 't kn o w/u n su re: 4.5%

Pric es will go lo wer: 40 .9%

Pric es will stay in th e c u rren t ran ge:


54.5%

Value

Percent

Prices will go lo wer

40.9%

Prices will stay in the current range

54.5%

Do n't kno w/unsure

4.5%

8. Which one of the following factors presents the most


risk in the crude oil trade?

Do n 't kn o w/u n su re: 0 .0 %

G eo p o litic al risk: 27.3%


S u p p ly: 31.8%

T ec h n ic al trad in g levels: 0 .0 %

Do llar flu c tu atio n s: 18.2%


Deman d : 22.7%

Value

Percent

Supply

31.8%

Dem and

22.7%

Do llar fluctuatio ns

18.2%

Technical trading levels

0.0%

Geo po litical risk

27.3%

Do n't kno w/unsure

0.0%

9. Do you think crude prices will see another leg lower


after summer driving demand peaks?
Do n 't kn o w/u n su re: 4.5%

Yes: 50 .0 %
No : 45.5%

Value

Percent

Yes

50.0%

No

45.5%

Do n't kno w/unsure

4.5%

10. Between June and August last year crude prices


went from roughly $60 to $40. Do you expect to see a
similar decline in a similar time frame this year?
Do n 't kn o w/u n su re: 9.1%

Yes: 27.3%

No : 63.6%

Value

Percent

Yes

27.3%

No

63.6%

Do n't kno w/unsure

9.1%

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