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(i) Globalization helps to boost the long run average growth rate of the economy of
the country through:
(a) Improvement in the allocative efficiency of resources;
(b) Increase in labour productivity; and
(c) Reduction in capital-output ratio.
(ii) Globalization paves the way for removing inefficiency in production system.
Prolonged protective scenario in the absence of globalization makes the production
system careless about cost effectiveness which can be attained by following the
policy of globalization.
(iii) Globalization attracts entry of foreign capital along with foreign updated
technology which improves the quality of production.
(iv) Globalization usually restructure production and trade pattern favoring laborintensive goods and labor-intensive techniques as well as expansion of trade in
services.
(v) In a globalized scenario, domestic industries of developing country become
conscious about price reduction and quality improvement to their products so as to
face foreign competition.
(vi) Globalization discourages uneconomic import substitution and favor cheaper
imports of capital goods which reduces capital-output ratio in manufacturing
industries. Cost effectiveness and price reduction of manufactured commodities will
improve the terms of trade in favor of agriculture.
(vii) Globalization facilitates consumer goods industries to expand faster to meet
growing demand for these consumer goods which would result faster expansion of
employment opportunities over a period of time. This would result trickle-down
effect to reduce the proportion of population living below the poverty line
(viii) Globalization enhances the efficiency of the banking insurance and financial
sectors with the opening up to those areas to foreign capital, foreign banks and
insurance companies.
Disadvantages of Globalization:
Globalization has its disadvantages also.
The following are some of these disadvantages:
(i) Globalization paves the way for redistribution of economic power at the world
level leading to domination by economically powerful nations over the poor nations.
(ii) Globalization usually results greater increase in imports than increase in exports
leading to growing trade deficit and balance of payments problem.
(iii) Although globalization promote the idea that technological change and increase
in productivity would lead to more jobs and higher wages but during the last few
Answer:
Derivatives contracts can be divided into two general families:
1. Contingent claims, e.g. options
2. Forward claims, which include exchange-traded futures, forward contracts and
swaps.
Swaps are derivative instruments that involve an agreement between two parties to
exchange a series of cash flows over a specific period of time .
There are multiple reasons why parties agree to such an exchange:
Usually, at the time the contract is initiated, at least one of these series of cash
flows is determined by a random or uncertain variable, such as an interest rate,
foreign exchange rate, equity price or commodity price. Conceptually, one may view
a swap as either a portfolio of forward contracts, or as a long position in one bond
coupled with a short position in another bond. This article will discuss the two most
common and most basic types of swaps: the plain vanilla interest rate and currency
swaps.
Features of swap
When initiated, neither party exchanges any cash; a swap has zero value at
the beginning.
One party tends to pay a fixed rate while the other pays on the movement of
the underlying asset. However, a swap can be structured so that both parties
pay each other on the movement of an underlying asset.
Usually traded in the over-the-counter market. This means they are subject
credit risk.
Of all the three exposures, economic exposure is the most important, as it has an
impact on the valuation of a firm. Suppose a Japanese company imports children
toys from India. The same product is also available from China but it is costly. If the
rupee appreciates against the yen and the Chinese currency decreases against yen,
Japan will prefer to import the toys from China as it will get at a cheaper rate. Since
economic exposure comes from unanticipated changes, its measurement is not as
precise as those of transaction and translation exposures. There are two
components of economic exposure transaction.
(a) Transaction exposure
Transaction exposure is concerned with the impact of change in exchange rate on
present cash flows. Transaction exposure emerges mainly on account of export and
import of commodities on open account, borrowing and lending in a foreign
currency and intra-firm flows within an international company.
Transaction exposure measures profits or losses that occur once the existing
financial obligations as per the terms of reference are settled. Given that the
transaction will result in a future foreign currency cash inflow or outflow, any
unanticipated changes in the exchange rate between the time the transaction is
entered into and the time it is settled in cash will lead to a change value of the net
cash flow in terms of the home currency. Examples of a transaction exposure of an
Indian company would be the account receivable associated with a sale
denominated in US dollars or the obligation of an account payable in Euro debt.
(b) Operating exposure
Operating exposure has an impact on the firms future operating costs and cash
flows. Since the firm is valued as a going concern entity, its future revenues and
costs are to be affected by the exchange rate changes. If the firm succeeds in
passing on the impact of higher input costs fully by increasing the selling price, it
does not have any operating risk exposure as its operating future cash flows are
likely to remain unaffected. In addition to supply and demand elasticity, the firms
ability to shift production and sourcing of inputs is another major factor affecting
operating risk exposure.
Sensitivity of future operating cash flows to unexpected changes in the foreign
exchange rate is known as the operating exposure. In other words, it arises when
the changes in the exchange rate in addition to the rates of inflation changes the
risk element and the amount of the companys future revenue and cost stream. The
word operating means the change in the operating cash flow which leads to
change in the value of the firm. It is not very easy to measure real operating
exposure as far as the measurement of the inflation rate differential is not easy,
more so when countries are going through a phase when they experience a highly
volatile rate of exposure. Operating exposure analysis assesses the impact of
changing exchange rates on a firms own operations over coming months and years
and on its competitive position vis--vis other firms. The goal is to identify strategic
moves or operating techniques that the firm might wish to adopt to enhance its
value in the face of unexpected exchange rate changes.
Some firms face operating exposure without even dealing in foreign exchange.
Consider an Indian perfume manufacturer who sources and sells only in the
domestic market. Since the firms product competes against imported perfumes
(say from Paris) it is subject to foreign exchange exposure. It faces severe
competition when rupee gains against other currencies (here, euro), lowering the
prices of imported perfumes.
Q.5. Elaborate on the tools of foreign exchange risk management and
techniques of exposure management.
Answer:
The various tools used for foreign exchange risk management are given as follow:
Forward Contract: In the forward market, contracts are made to buy and sell
currencies for future delivery, say, after a fortnight, one month, two months and so
on. The rate of exchange for the transaction is agreed upon on the very day the
deal is finalized. The rate of exchange for the transaction is agreed upon on the very
day the deal is finalized. The forward rates with varying maturity are quoted in the
newspapers and those rates form the basis of the contract. Both parties have to
abide by the contract at the exchange rate mentioned therein irrespective of
whether the spot rate on the maturity date resembles the forward rate or not. The
value date in case of a forward contract lies definitely beyond the value date
applicable to a spot contract.
Sometimes the value date is structured to enable one of the parties to the
transaction to have freedom to select a value date within the prescribed period. This
happens when the party does not know in advance the precise date on which it
would be able to deliver the currency, for instance, an exporter who sells a foreign
currency forward without knowing in advance the precise date of shipment.
Future Contract: The foreign exchange market involving forward contracts has a
long history but the market for currency futures has a comparatively recent origin. It
came into being in 1972 when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has set up its
international monetary market division for trading of currency futures. Currency
futures are traded only in a limited number of currencies. A forward contract is
finalized on telephone, etc. meaning that it represents an over-the-counter market.
But in case of currency futures, brokers strike the deals sitting face to face under a
trading roof, known as pits. The brokers can trade for themselves as well as on
behalf of the customers. When they trade for themselves, they are called locals or
floor traders. On the other hand, when the brokers trade on behalf of their
customers, they are known as commission brokers or floor brokers. When a trader
has to enter a currency futures contract, he informs his agent who in turn informs
the commission broker at the stock exchange. The commission broker executes the
deal in the pit for a commission/fee. After the deal is executed, the commission
broker confirms the trade with the agent of the trader. There are different costs
associated with the transactions in the market for currency futures. The first is the
brokerage commission that is charged by the commission brokers and covers both
the opening and the reversing trade. The second is the floor trading and clearing
fee charged by the stock exchange and its associated clearing house. Normally, this
fee is included in the brokerage commission but when the locals trade for
themselves, the fee is quite exclusively found. The third is the delivery cost that is
related to the delivery of the currencies but since actual delivery of the currencies
seldom takes place, such cost is not common.
Options: The market for currency options is the other form of the derivatives
market representing large-scale sale and purchase of currencies. This form of
market possesses some distinguishing features and also the methods of operation
are different. There are three different types of option market. They are listed
currency options market, currency futures options market and over-the-counter
options market.
Since most money now exists in the form of electronic records rather than in the
form of paper, open market operations are conducted simply by electronically
increasing or decreasing (crediting or debiting) the amount of base money that a
bank has in its reserve account at the central bank. Thus, the process does not
literally require new currency. However, this will increase the central banks
requirement to print currency when the member bank demands banknotes, in
exchange for a decrease in its electronic balance.
When there is an increased demand for base money, the central bank must act if it
wishes to maintain the short-term interest rate. It does this by increasing the supply
of base money. The central bank goes to the open market to buy a financial asset,
such as government bonds. To pay for these assets, bank reserves in the form of
new base money (for example newly printed cash) are transferred to the sellers
bank and the sellers account is credited. Thus, the total amount of base money in
the economy is increased. Conversely, if the central bank sells these assets in the
open market, the amount of base money held by the buyers bank is decreased,
effectively reducing base money.
Currency swap: An agreement to swap a series of specified payment obligations
denominated in one currency for a series of specified payment obligations
denominated in a different currency. Usually fixed for fixed.
In a currency swap, the parties to the contract exchange the principal of two
different currencies immediately, so that each party has the use of the different
currency. They also make interest payments to each other on the principal during
the contract term.
In many cases, one of the parties pays a fixed interest rate and the other pays a
floating interest rate, but both could pay fixed or floating rates. When the contract
ends, the parties re-exchange the principal amount of the swap.
Originally, currency swaps were used to give each party access to enough foreign
currency to make purchases in foreign markets. Increasingly, parties arrange
currency swaps as a way to enter new capital markets or to provide predictable
revenue streams in another currency.
Techniques of exposure management:
the goal of operating exposure analysis. Broadly speaking, operating exposure and
its implications are not limited to the sensitivity and dependability of the future cash
flows of a firm upon the unpredictable fluctuations in foreign exchange rates. It is
also directly affected by other chain macroeconomic variables. This phenomenon is
often known as macroeconomic uncertainty.
Some firms face operating exposure without even dealing in foreign exchange.
Consider an Indian perfume manufacturer who sources and sells only in the
domestic market. Since the firms product competes against imported perfumes
(say from Paris) it is subject to foreign exchange exposure. It faces severe
competition when rupee gains against other currencies (here, euro), lowering the
prices of imported perfumes.
Suppose that an Indian manufacturer has contracted to sell 100 pairs of jeans per
year to Britain at `1200 per pair and to buy 200 yards of denim from Britain in this
same period for 2 per yard. Suppose that 2 yards of denim are required per pair
and that the labour cost for each pair is `400. Suppose that at the time of
contracting the exchange rate is S (`/) = 80 and the rupee is then devalued to S(`/
) = 81. Suppose also that the elasticity of demand for Indian jeans in Britain is -2
and that after the contract expires the Indian manufacturer raises the price of jeans
to `1205 per pair. What are the gains/losses from the devaluation on the jeans sold
and on the denim bought at the pre-contracted prices? (i.e., what are the
gains/losses from transaction exposure on payables and receivables?) What are the
gains/losses from the extra competitiveness of Indian jeans, that is, from operating
exposure?
Q.6. Write short notes on:
a. Adjusted present value model (APV model)
b. Economic and political risk
Answer:
Adjusted present value model:
Adjusted present value refers to the net present value (NPV) or investment adjusted
for the interest and tax advantages of leveraging debt provided that equity is the
only source of financing.
HOW IT WORKS (EXAMPLE):
A company may finance a project or investment using shareholders' equity alone
(i.e., without leveraged, or borrowed, cash flows). Under these circumstances, the
company repays associated debts using the unleveraged cash flow from
shareholder's equity. As a result, the company is entitled to significant tax
deductions on the interest component of these payments. These tax deductions put
the company at an advantage as far as the project's ultimate profitability, because
they help to increase the project's bottom line. For this reason, a company can
analyze such a project's profitability using the adjusted present value (APV). This
measure reflects the project or investment's NPV adjusted for the tax benefits from
interest obligations on outstanding debts associated with the project or investment.
To illustrate, suppose company XYZ invests $1,000 in a project, $800 of which is
equity and $200 of which is debt. The annual cash flow year after a year is projected
to be $146. The tax rate is 25%, and both the interest and cost of debt are each 7%,
while the return on equity is 15%.
APV = NPV + PV of debt financing advantages
NPV = -$1000 init. invest. + ($146 ann. ret. / 0.15 ret. on eq.) = -$26.67
PV of debt fin. adv. = (0.25 tax rate ($200 debt * 0.07 debt int.)) / (1 (1 / (1 + 0.07
debt cost)))
= $3.5 / 0.0655
= $53.44
APV = -$26.67 NPV + $53.44 PV of debt fin. adv.
APV = $26.77
In this instance, the tax advantages to company XYZ for financing with equity alone
make the project profitable as reflected in the positive APV. Were it not for these
advantages, the project would not have been accepted on the basis of its negative
NPV.
b. Economic and political risk:
Economic risk is the chance that macroeconomic conditions like exchange rates,
government regulation, or political stability will affect an investment, usually one in
a foreign country.
For example, let's assume American Company XYZ invests $1,000,000 in a
manufacturing plant in the Congo. Aside from the business risk associated with
making the plant profitable, Company XYZ is exposed to economic risk.
The political environment could shift quickly, perhaps prompting the Congolese
government to seize the plant or significantly change laws that affect Company
XYZ's ability to operate the plant.
Likewise, hyperinflation could make it impossible to pay workers, or exchange rate
circumstances could make it unprofitable to move profits out of the country.
The risk that an investment's returns could suffer as a result of political changes or
instability in a country. Instability affecting investment returns could stem from a
change in government, legislative bodies, other foreign policy makers, or military
control.
Political risk is also known as "geopolitical risk," and becomes more of a factor as
the time horizon of an investment gets longer.