Transportation Demand

Analysis
Geometric Design of Roads and
Highways

Transportation Demand
Analysis
Transportation demand analysis plays several important
roles in transportation engineering and planning. The range
from attempts to understand the long-range social
environmental implications of decision about transportation
systems to very specific, short range predictions of
passenger or vehicular flows that are used by designers to
size facilities, develop operating and control strategies, and
assess the impact of land development and transportation
projects. The goals of transportation demand analysis are
to describe travel in meaningful terms, to explain travel
behavior, and on the basis of an understanding of travel
behavior, to predict demand for various types of
transportation services.

Travel Demand Modeling

-describes the relationship between trip-making and
the regions patterns of population, land-use and economic
activities. It attempts to quantify the amount of travel on
the transportation system in terms of the activities that
create the demand.
4 Basic Phases of Travel Demand Modeling
1. Trip Generation
2. Trip Distribution (origin and destination)
3. Mode Choice (mode of transport used)
4. Traffic Assignment (route assignment)

Trip Generation Models

-are intended to predict the total number of trips produced or attracted by a
zone. Trips are usually thought of as being 2-way excursions originating at the tripmaker's home. They are said to be produced by residential development and attracted
by economic or other activity. Trips are normally stratifies by purpose; for each trip
type, the number produced in a particular zone is assumed to depend on the size and
characteristics of the zone's resident population. The number of trips attracted to
the zone is assumed to depend on the characteristics of its economic activity. The
following are the common trip generation model used for analysis:
a. Cross Classification-separate population in an urban area into relatively
homogenous groups based on certain socio-economic, characteristics.
Car ownership compared to Family Size

b. Regression Model --- Uses data aggregated at the zonal level. This is used to
establish a statistical relationship between the number of trips produced and the
characteristics of the individuals, zone and the transportation fretwork.
c. Growth Factor Method - use for estimating the growth output of the zone
(by economic, population, etc.)

Types of Growth Factor

Method
1.1 Uniform Growth Factor
Tij = (tij)*(z)
Where:
z = growth factor (usually 1.20)
Tij = uniform growth
tij = distribution growth population

1.2. Trip Distribution Models - are intended to predict zone-tozone trip interchanges. The final product is a projected origindestination matrix of the form. The Gravity Model is the most
popular equation being used in the trip distribution modeling:

Tij = Pi(Aj*Fij) / (Aj*Fij)

where:

Tij = trips from zone i to zone j

Aj = trips attractions in zone j
Fij = impedance of travel from zone i to zone j
Pi = trip productions, in zone i to zone j
The impedance of travel from zone i to zone j is usually some
function of the travel time or generalized cost of travel between
the 2 zones. One common form is:
Fij = C-aij
Cij = generalized functions for travel from zone i to zone j
= is assumed as 2.0

 1.3 Mode Choice Models contemporary mode choice (or

modal choice) models are almost disaggregate models based
on a utility function of the form:

um = m + j + zmj +

Where:

um = utility mode

m = mode specific parameter (express the

relative desirability of different modes to the

members of the market segement.)

j = parameters of the model, to be determined by

calibration

zmj = set of travel characteristics of mode m, such as

time or money costs

= stochastic term with zero mean

Multi-logic Demand
Model
Since:

Where:

Pm = eum / eum
Pm = probability that mode m is chosen
e = base of natural logarithm
m = index over all modes included in the choice set

Binary Logic Model directly used on the normal distribution.

This is simple and occasionally been used as a transportation
demand model.
Pi = 1 / (1 + e(u2 u1)
Where:
u1 & u2 = utility mode

Trip Assignment Models

Trip assignment models are, intended to predict the number of
travelers using various routes and, hence, the traffic on the links of a
transportation network. In some cases, vehicular trips are estimated
rather than person trips, in which case he model is known as a traffic
assignment model. Also, disaggregate trip assignment models are
sometimes known as route choice models.
Actual travel time functions may be both time -and volumedependent, especially in cases in which the capacity of some links is
exceeded and queues form. Under these conditions, an exact solution to
the equilibrium assignment problem is quite complicated. In practice,
traffic assignment models tend to employ either a simple all-or-nothing
assignment to he minimum path or a constrained all-or--nothing assignment
in which the network is incrementally loaded. In this latter version, some
fraction of the trips is loaded onto the network, link volumes are
calculated, and new travel times are calculated from the link travel time
functions. Following this, another increment of trips is loaded and the
process is repeated. As links become congested, their travel times increase
and they drop out of the minimum paths. By this means, he effects of
congestion can be incorporated to some extent. A similar procedure can be
used to solve time-dependent cases, provided queue growth rates can be
predicted accurately.

Estimation Of Traffic

Estimation of Traffic
The loads imposed by private cars do not contribute
significantly to the structural damage to road pavements caused
by traffic. For purposes of structural design therefore, only the
numbers of commercial vehicles and their axle loadings are
considered. The procedure used in to convert the varying axle
loads to common denominator and to express traffic, as the sum of
the converted -axle loads. The common denominator is an 80 KN
single axle load. The prediction of traffic for design purposes
must rely on information from past traffic, modified by factors
for growth or other expected changes. Past traffic information
are accumulated in the growth of load-meter data in the format of
load-meter tables, which are tabulations of number of axles
observed within a series of load groups. The tabulations are in a
convenient form for conversion, since the number of axles in each
load group may be multiplied by an appropriate factor for
conversion to equivalent 80 KN single axle applications for the load
group and a summation of these for all groups is- the equivalent 80
KN single axle load application that, represents the total traffic
for the survey period.

Traffic Volume
The design of a highway or any part thereof should consider jointly
all data relating. To traffic such as traffic volume, character of traffic
and axle, loading. Financing quality of foundation, availability of materials,
cost of right-of-way and other factors have important bearing on the
design.
A road should be designed so that it will accommodate or can be
readily changed to accommodate the number of vehicles which is estimated
to pass it towards the end of its life. This number is called design volume.
In estimating the design volume, the minimum life is assumed to be 10-15
years for flexible pavement and 20 years for a rigid pavement. But in any
ease, a period of 20 years is widely used as a .basis for design, for which
the usual traffic increase on a highway improvement is in the range of 50
to 150% where the highway is to be a freeway (expressway) traffic
increase is likely to be in a higher range of 80% to 200%
On minor, low volume roads, average daily traffic (ADT) normally is
sufficient. On most highways the Design Hourly Volume (DHV), .usually the
30th highest hourly volume is used for the design. On highways with
unusual or highly seasonal fluctuations, in traffic flow it may be necessary
to use a design hourly volume other than the 30th highest hour.

Equivalent Axle Load

Concept

Damaging Effect Method

In order This
to express
effect
of traffic,
the
equivalent
means the
thatdamaging
the damaging
effect
of axle
load
(Li) when
axle
load concept
has been developed.
By means
this concept
on
compared
to the damaging
effect of the
80 KN of
standard
axle load
axle
loading
can express
theofdamage
caused
by a certain
number
depends
on the
magnitude
the induced
stresses
and the
slope of
of the
load
repetition,
a given
axlemixtures,
load in a the
number
repetitions
fatigue
relation.ofFor
asphalt
valueofofload
(n) damage
of
a standard
axle
(80somewhere
KN) resulting
in some
amount
of damage
exponent
takes
theload
value
between
3 and
6 depending
on
in
the
pavement. of the mixture and the loading time and temperature
the
composition
The
pavements
are designed
to4carry
large amount of traffic and
conditions;
normally
a value of
is adopted.
the number of traffic
that
be takenexponent)
depends on the
Otherloads
Values
of can
n (damaging
magnitude of the Cement
stressesconcrete
in the pavement.
= 10 - 12 When high stresses
occur the allowable
number
will be =low
while this number will be high
Lenient
Treated
7 9
if the stress
title
to the traffic
is low. Thishas
phenomenon
is effect
Thislevel
clearly
indicates
that overloading
a significant
known
as Fatigue.
The concept
of the equivalent
axle load
on pavement
deterioration.
Furthermore,
it indicates
thatcan
the
mathematically
by is
means
of damaging
power
of question
a given
equivalent axle expressed
load concept
strongly
influenced
by the
axle
factor of
a standard
axle:
"equivalent
with
respect to
what damage type?" For permanent
F = Lor
Lstn
deformation in asphalt mixtures
bases and roughness
i /granular
Where:
development;
other n values will have to be used. It is worldwide
factor for
load axle load.
practice to take F
n = equivalency
4 for the calculation
ofaxle
equivalent
Li = given axle load
Lst = standard axle load (80 KN)
n = damage exponent

Load Equivalence of
Traffic
The equivalent traffic cane be determined by multiplying the
number of axle loads in each load group (t,) of the entire load
spectrum by the relevant equivalency factor.
Where:

Where:

E = tj / Fj

Fj = equivalency factor for axle load

tj = number of axles in the jth local group
E = equivalent daily traffic (equivalent 80 KN single axle load)
DTL = E*365*number of design years
DTL = design traffic load

The Japan Road

Association (5-ton EAL)
= (Pi / 5)4
N5 = (ni)*(1)
N = (N5)*(365)*(design years)*(a)

Where:

1 = damage factor by wheel load of Pi to pavement

N5 = total # of wheel load passes over the measured
point converted to the number of 5-ton wheel load
application (wheel/day/direction)
a = traffic growth rate
ni = measured number of wheel load passes for Pi

AASHTO Traffic
Analysis
Design equivalent single axle load the number of equivalent
80 KN (8.165 ton or 18 kips) single axle application contributed by
one passage of an axle/vehicle.
DTL = W18 = (Design ESAL)*(DD)*(LD)
Where:
DTL = design traffic load
Design ESAL = ESAL*365*TGF
= (ADT truck)*(Truck Factor) = (ADT bus)*(Bus
Factor)
DD = directional distribution factor (0.30 to 0.70)
Note:
LD = lane
distribution factor
Factor
= 1.66
= 100% (for 1Bus
lane
in equal
direction)
Truck
= 1.54
= 80 100% (for
2 Factor(2-axle)
lanes in equal direction)
Truck
Factor(3-axle)
= 0.83
= 60 -80% (for
3 lanes
in equal direction)
Trailer
= 4.03
= 50 75% (for
4 lanes
in equal direction)

Soil Support Value (SSV)

of the Roadway
Sub-grade Soil
The soil value of the sub-grade soil is the product of
the design CBR and the resiliency factor (Rf) for the soil
encountered as expressed in the equation:
SSV = Design CBR*Rf
Soil support is used in conjunction with the design
traffic volume (Design ADT) to determine the minimum
strength requirement for the pavement.
California Bearing Ratio (CBR) of the roadway subgrade soil is the ratio of resistance to penetration develop
by a sub-grade soil to that developed by a specimen of
standard crushed stone base material.

Determination of Relative
Resistance of Sub-grade Material
a. Test Method
- For each roadway, a sufficient number of
CBR test must be conducted to determine the
average CBR value for various soil types.
b. Soil Sampling
- Representative soil samples for CBR test
sample shall be taken from the top, 1.5m of the
finished sub-grade by a qualified soil technician
engineer.
- AASHTO Soil Classification & Sieve
Analysis
- Atterberg Test
- CBR Test

Table for Resiliency

Factor
Soil
Classification

Load Support
Characteristics

Resiliency
Factor

CBR (%)

Excellent

3.0

> 10%

Good

2.5

7 < CBR < 10

A-2, A-4, A-5, A-6 and A-7

soils having a sand
content < 40%

Average

2.0

3 < CBR < 7

a. A-7-5 soil
b. A-2, A-5, A-6, and A-7-6
soils with low mica

Poor

1.5

<3

Very poor

1.0

<1

a. A-1:A-3 soils
b. A-4,A-5 and A-7 soils
having a sand content > 60%
A-2, A-4, A-5, A-6 and A-7
soils having a sand content
between 40% - 60%

Soil not within the category

of medium low resisting soils
and also contain mica

Figure for Pavement

Section

Design CBR

The CBR test is conducted on the disturbed

and re-compacted samples. The design CBR is
determined based on CBR values on individual
location with the road section, with extreme
values discarded by the following formula:
Design
Coefficient
CBR
of CBR
= Ave. CBR [ (Max CBR Min CBR) / c ]
2 3
4
5
6
7
8
9
>10
where:
values
available
Ave.
CBR. = average values for CBR determined along the
road
1.41 1.91 2.24
2.48
2.67
2.83
2.96
3.08
3.18
c section.
Max. CBR = maximum value of the determined CBR along the
road section
Min. CBR = minimum value of the determined CBR along the
road section.
Ave.

Sub-Grade Strength
The strength of the sub-grade is
assessed using a test drawn as the
CBR test. This was developed in
California in 1850s and makes no
attempt to determine other
properties of soil such as density.

Steps in CBR Test

3.
1.
2.
The
moisture
specimen,
samples
content
still of
in
density
soil
mould,
atisis
4.Disturbed
A small
cylindrical
is the
forced
into
plotted
immersed
different
inmoisture
the
water
sample
and
contents
soaked
with the
for
are 4
the
stilland
confined
specimen,
load
greatest
days
compacted
to simulate
dry-density
in
3saturation
orare
5islayers.
selected.
that
By as
static
may
deformation
data
gathered
occur
or compact
in service.
into
Expansion
cylindricalofthen
mould.
the the
the
specimen
is penetrated
specimen
from soaking is measured.
CBR is computed.

Resiliency Factor (Rf)

The ability to resist loading that the

pavement structure will go back to its original
formation (elastic) and once a load is applied in
the structure, and a permanent (plastic) occurs a
low resiliency factor to the structure.

Mechanical Analysis of
Soil Sub-grade
Determination of the size range of particles
present in a soil, expressed as percentage of the
total dry weight (or mass). Two methods are
generally used to find the particle size
distribution of the soil.
1. Sieve Analysis for particle larger than
0.075mm in diameter
2. Hydrometer Analysis for particle size
smaller than 0.075mm.

Sieve Analysis
Sieve
No.

Opening
(mm.)

4.75

3.35

2.36

10

2.0

16

1.18

20

0.85

30

0.60

40

0.425

50

0.300

60

0.250

80

0.180

100

0.150

140

0.106

170

0.088

200

0.075

270

0.053

Fuller-Curve Analysis
A theoretical curve representing an
idealized material consisting of spherical
and angular particles just touch each other
intermediately particles to fill the voids.
P = (Ds / Dmax)
Using Sieve Analysis
where:
% of Soil Retained = (Mass Retained / Total
Massby
ofmass
the soil)*100
P = percent
of the particle
Passing
(%) = passing
% of sieve - %retained
Ds = sieve
sizes (mm)
Dmax = maximum particle sizes

Index Properties
Soil Type

Index Properties

Classification Test

Course Grain

1. Range of particle sizes

and distribution
of sizes
2. Shape of particles

Presence of the
particles
3. In-place density and
relative state
of compaction
4. Classification
5. Shear Strength

1.Particle size
distribution by
sieve test
2. Visual
3. Mechanical Analysis
4. In-situ density
determination
and relative
density test
5. Visual Identification
based upon
grain size
6. Tri-axial shear test

Fine Grain

1.Consistency
2. Change in consistency
due to
remolding
3. Water content
4. Plasticity
4. Classification
5. Type of clay

1. Field or laboratory
evaluation of
unconfined
compressive
strength
2. Unconfined
compressive
strength
3.Water content
4. Atterberg limit
5. Visual Identification
6. Determination of
plasticity and
consistency and
directly from a
clay mineral
analysis

Refers to those properties of soil

that indicate the type and condition
of the soil and provide a relationship
to structural properties such as
strength and compressibility or
tendency for permeability.

Soil Separate Size Limits

Name of
Organization

Gravel

Sand

Silt

Clay

Massachusetts
Institute of
Technology

>2

2 0.06

0.05 0.002

< 0.002

US Department
of Agriculture

>2

2 0.05

0.05 0.002

< 0.002

US Corps of
Engineers

76.2 4.75

4.75 0.075

< 0.075

< 0.075

AASHTO

76.2 2.0

2 0.75

0.015 0.002

< 0.002

Design Chart for Aggregate

Surfaced roads considering
allowable serviceability loss

End of the Slide