Chap 33

06.09.
2011
12
SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
33
Aggregate Demand
and Aggregate
Supply
Copyright 2004 South-Western
Short-Run Economic Fluctuations

Economic activity fluctuates from year to year.
In most years production of goods and services
rises.
On average over the past 50 years, production in the
U.S. economy has grown by about 3 percent per
year.
In some years normal growth does not occur,
causing a recession.
Short-Run Economic Fluctuations

A recession is a period of declining real
incomes, and rising unemployment.
A depression is a severe recession.
THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT

ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
Economic fluctuations are irregular and
unpredictable.
Fluctuations in the economy are often called the
business cycle.
Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate

together.
As output falls, unemployment rises.
Figure 1 A Look At Short-Run Economic

Fluctuations
(a) Real GDP
Billions of
1996 Dollars
$10,000
9,000
Real GDP
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
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Fluctuations
(b) Investment Spending
Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate

together.
Most macroeconomic variables that measure some
type of income or production fluctuate closely
together.
Although many macroeconomic variables fluctuate
together, they fluctuate by different amounts.
Billions of
1996 Dollars
$1,800
1,600
1,400
,
Investment spending
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995

2000

Fluctuations
(c) Unemployment Rate
As output falls, unemployment rises.

Changes in real GDP are inversely related to
changes in the unemployment rate.
During times of recession, unemployment rises
substantially.
Percent of
Labor Force
12
10
Unemployment rate
8
6
4
2
0
1965
EXPLAINING SHORT-RUN
How the Short Run Differs from the Long Run
Most economists believe that classical theory
describes the world in the long run but not in the
short run.
Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables
but not real variables in the long run.
The assumption of monetary neutrality is not appropriate
when studying year-to-year changes in the economy.
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations

Two variables are used to develop a model to
analyze the short-run fluctuations.
The economys output of goods and services
measured by real GDP.
The overall price level measured by the CPI or the
GDP deflator.
06.09.2011
The Basic Model of Aggregate Demand and

Aggregate Supply

Aggregate Supply
Economist use the model of aggregate demand and

aggregate supply to explain short-run fluctuations
in economic activity around its long-run trend.
The aggregate-demand curve shows the quantity of

goods and services that households, firms, and the
government want to buy at each price level.

Aggregate Supply
The aggregate-supply curve shows the quantity of
goods and services that firms choose to produce and
sell at each price level.
Figure 2 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate

Supply...
Price
Level
Aggregate
supply
Equilibrium
price level
Aggregate
demand
Quantity of
Output
Equilibrium
output
THE AGGREGATE-DEMAND
CURVE
The four components of GDP (Y) contribute to
the aggregate demand for goods and services.
Y = C + I + G + NX
Figure 3 The Aggregate-Demand Curve...

Price
Level
P2
1. A decrease
in the price
level . . .
0
Aggregate
demand
Y2
Quantity of
Output
2. . . . increases the quantity of

goods and services demanded.
06.09.2011
Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is

Downward Sloping

Downward Sloping
The Price Level and Consumption: The Wealth

Effect
The Price Level and Investment: The Interest
Rate Effect
The Price Level and Net Exports: The
Exchange-Rate Effect
The Price Level and Consumption: The Wealth

Effect
A decrease in the price level makes consumers feel
more wealthy, which in turn encourages them to
spend more.
This increase in consumer spending means larger
quantities of goods and services demanded.

Downward Sloping

Downward Sloping
The Price Level and Investment: The Interest

Rate Effect
The Price Level and Net Exports: The

Exchange-Rate Effect
A lower price level reduces the interest rate, which

encourages greater spending on investment goods.
This increase in investment spending means a larger
quantity of goods and services demanded.
When a fall in the U.S. price level causes U.S.

interest rates to fall, the real exchange rate
depreciates, which stimulates U.S. net exports.
The increase in net export spending means a larger
quantity of goods and services demanded.
Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Might

Shift
Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Might

Shift
The downward slope of the aggregate demand

curve shows that a fall in the price level raises
the overall quantity of goods and services
demanded.
Many other factors, however, affect the
quantity of goods and services demanded at any
given price level.
When one of these other factors changes, the
aggregate demand curve shifts.
Shifts arising from
Consumption
Investment
Government Purchases
Net Exports
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Shifts in the Aggregate Demand

Curve
THE AGGREGATE-SUPPLY
CURVE
In the long run, the aggregate-supply curve is
vertical.
In the short run, the aggregate-supply curve is
upward sloping.
Price
Level
P1
D2
Aggregate
demand, D1
0
Y1
Y2
Quantity of
Output
CURVE
The Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve
In the long run, an economys production of goods
and services depends on its supplies of labor,
capital, and natural resources and on the available
technology used to turn these factors of production
into goods and services.
The price level does not affect these variables in the
long run.
Figure 4 The Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve

Price
Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply
P
P2
CURVE
The Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve
The long-run aggregate-supply curve is vertical at
the natural rate of output.
This level of production is also referred to as
potential output or full-employment output.
2. . . . does not affect

the quantity of goods
and services supplied
in the long run.
1. A change
in the price
level . . .
Natural rate
of output
Quantity of
Output
Why the Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve

Might Shift
Any change in the economy that alters the
natural rate of output shifts the long-run
aggregate-supply curve.
The shifts may be categorized according to the
various factors in the classical model that affect
output.
06.09.2011
Why the Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve

Might Shift
Shifts arising
Figure 5 Long-Run Growth and Inflation

2. . . . and growth in the
money supply shifts
aggregate demand . . .
Long-run
aggregate
supply,
LRAS1980 LRAS1990 LRAS2000
Price
Level
Labor
Capital
Natural Resources
Technological Knowledge
1. In the long run,

technological
progress shifts
long run aggregate
long-run
supply . . .
P2000
4. . . . and
ongoing inflation.
P1990
Aggregate
Demand, AD2000
P1980
AD1990
AD1980
0
Y1980
Y1990
Quantity of
Output
3. . . . leading to growth
in output . . .
Y2000
A New Way to Depict Long-Run Growth and

Inflation
Why the Aggregate-Supply Curve Slopes

Upward in the Short Run
Short-run fluctuations in output and price level

should be viewed as deviations from the
continuing long-run trends.
In the short run, an increase in the overall level

of prices in the economy tends to raise the
quantity of goods and services supplied.
A decrease in the level of prices tends to reduce
the quantity of goods and services supplied.
Figure 6 The Short-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve
Price
Level

The Misperceptions Theory
The Sticky-Wage Theory
The Sticky-Price Theory
Short-run
aggregate
supply
P
P2
2. . . . reduces the quantity
of goods and services
supplied in the short run.
1. A decrease
in the price
level . . .
Y2
Quantity of
Output
06.09.2011


The Misperceptions Theory
The Sticky-Wage Theory
Changes in the overall price level temporarily

mislead suppliers about what is happening in the
markets in which they sell their output:
A lower price level causes misperceptions about
relative prices.
Nominal wages are slow to adjust, or are sticky in

the short run:
Wages do not adjust immediately to a fall in the price
level.
A lower price level makes employment and production
less profitable.
This induces firms to reduce the quantity of goods and
services supplied.
These misperceptions induce suppliers to decrease the

quantity of goods and services supplied.
Why the Short-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve

Might Shift
The Sticky-Price Theory

Prices of some goods and services adjust sluggishly
in response to changing economic conditions:
An unexpected fall in the price level leaves some firms
with higher-than-desired prices.
This depresses sales,
sales which induces firms to reduce the
quantity of goods and services they produce.
Shifts arising
Labor
Capital
Natural Resources.
Technology.
Expected Price Level.
Figure 7 The Long-Run Equilibrium
Why the Aggregate Supply Curve Might Shift

An increase in the expected price level reduces
the quantity of goods and services supplied and
shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve to
the left.
A decrease in the expected price level raises the
quantity of goods and services supplied and
shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve to
the right.
Price
Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply
Equilibrium
price
Aggregate
demand
0
Short-run
aggregate
supply
Natural rate
of output
Quantity of
Output
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Figure 8 A Contraction in Aggregate Demand

2. . . . causes output to fall in the short run . . .
Price
Level
TWO CAUSES OF ECONOMIC

FLUCTUATIONS
Shifts in Aggregate Demand
Long-run
aggregate
supply
Short-run aggregate
supply, AS
AS2
3. . . . but over
time, the short-run
aggregate-supply
curve shifts . . .
P
B
P2
P3
In the short run, shifts in aggregate demand cause

fluctuations in the economys output of goods and
services.
In the long run, shifts in aggregate demand affect
the overall price level but do not affect output.
1. A decrease in
aggregate demand . . .
Aggregate
demand, AD
AD2
0
Y2
Y
4. . . . and output returns
to its natural rate.
Quantity of
Output
TWO CAUSES OF ECONOMIC

FLUCTUATIONS
An Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply
Figure 10 An Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply

1. An adverse shift in the shortrun aggregate-supply curve . . .
Price
Level
A decrease in one of the determinants of aggregate

supply shifts the curve to the left:
Output falls below the natural rate of employment.
Unemployment rises.
The price level rises.
Long-run
aggregate
supply
AS2
Short-run
aggregate
supply, AS
B
P2
A
P
3. . . . and
the price
level to rise.
Aggregate demand
0
Y2
2. . . . causes output to fall . . .

Quantity of
Output
The Effects of a Shift in Aggregate Supply
The Effects of a Shift in Aggregate Supply
Stagflation
Policy Responses to Recession
Adverse shifts in aggregate supply cause

stagflationa period of recession and inflation.
Output falls and prices rise.
Policymakers who can influence aggregate demand
cannot offset both of these adverse effects
simultaneously.
Policymakers may respond to a recession in one of

the following ways:
Do nothing and wait for prices and wages to adjust.
Take action to increase aggregate demand by using
monetary and fiscal policy.
06.09.2011
Figure 11 Accommodating an Adverse Shift in

Aggregate Supply
1. When short-run aggregate
supply falls . . .
Price
Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply
P3
2. . . . policymakers can
accommodate the shift
by expanding aggregate
demand . . .
P2
A
3. . . . which P
causes the
price level
to rise
further . . .
0
4. . . . but keeps output

at its natural rate.
Short-run
aggregate
supply, AS
AS2
Summary
All societies experience short-run economic
fluctuations around long-run trends.
These fluctuations are irregular and largely
unpredictable.
When recessions occur, real GDP and other
measures of income, spending, and production
fall, and unemployment rises.
AD2
Aggregate demand, AD
Natural rate
of output
Quantity of
Output
Summary
Summary
Economists analyze short-run economic

fluctuations using the aggregate demand and
aggregate supply model.
According to the model of aggregate demand
and aggregate supply, the output of goods and
services and the overall level of prices adjust to
balance aggregate demand and aggregate
supply.
The aggregate-demand curve slopes downward

for three reasons: a wealth effect, an interest
rate effect, and an exchange rate effect.
Any event or policy that changes consumption,
investment, government purchases, or net
exports at a given price level will shift the
aggregate-demand curve.
Summary
Summary
In the long run, the aggregate supply curve is

vertical.
The short-run, the aggregate supply curve is
upward sloping.
The are three theories explaining the upward
slope of short-run aggregate supply: the
misperceptions theory, the sticky-wage theory,
and the sticky-price theory.
Events that alter the economys ability to

produce output will shift the short-run
aggregate-supply curve.
short-run
run aggregateaggregate
Also, the position of the short
supply curve depends on the expected price
level.
One possible cause of economic fluctuations is
a shift in aggregate demand.
06.09.2011
Summary
A second possible cause of economic
fluctuations is a shift in aggregate supply.
Stagflation is a period of falling output and
rising prices.
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06.09.

Short-Run Economic Fluctuations

Short-Run Economic Fluctuations

Copyright 2004 South-Western

THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT

Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Figure 1 A Look At Short-Run Economic

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Copyright 2004 South-Western

THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT

Figure 1 A Look At Short-Run Economic

Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate

Copyright 2004 South-Western

THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Figure 1 A Look At Short-Run Economic

As output falls, unemployment rises.

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Copyright 2004 South-Western

The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations

Copyright 2004 South-Western

The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations

The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations

The Basic Model of Aggregate Demand and

The Basic Model of Aggregate Demand and

Economist use the model of aggregate demand and

The aggregate-demand curve shows the quantity of

Copyright 2004 South-Western

The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Figure 2 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Figure 3 The Aggregate-Demand Curve...

2. . . . increases the quantity of

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is

Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is

The Price Level and Consumption: The Wealth

The Price Level and Consumption: The Wealth

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is

Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is

The Price Level and Investment: The Interest

The Price Level and Net Exports: The

A lower price level reduces the interest rate, which

When a fall in the U.S. price level causes U.S.

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Might

Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Might

The downward slope of the aggregate demand

Shifts arising from

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Shifts in the Aggregate Demand

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Figure 4 The Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve

Copyright 2004 South-Western

Copyright 2004 South-Western