Tricia Hawkins

ATMO 1010
Class Project
8/5/2016

During my finding for this class project, I have had the opportunity to look deeper
into the background and future of fire trends in the findings of many reputable
institutions. I also looked into the reasons behind the changing fire trend findings that I
found, and the effect that those changings are having on our climate and environment.
This assignment has helped me to see the impact that our actions, as the human race, has
on wildfire statistics and general weather and climate change.
As I was able to investigate the various findings specifically found from
Westerling and Dennison, I saw that both and many more have observed the lack of
sufficient evidence and investigation behind past fire trends. Westerling observed that,
High-quality time series are essential for evaluating wildfire risks, but for various
reasons, previous works have not rigorously documented changes in large wildfire
frequency for western forests. Likewise, detailed fire-climate analyses for the region have
not been conducted to evaluate what hydro climatic variations may be associated with
recent increased wildfire activity (Westerling, 2006)
Another past observation that I found was that typically the effects of fire
exclusion are more prominent in forests that have been previously affected, especially by
several low-intensity surface fires within a short time of each other especially found in
Southwestern ponderosa pine and Sierra Nevada conifers. Findings also show that

forests that experienced infrequent higher severity fires were less likely to have a
recurring risk. (Westerling, 2006)
From what I can understand, the trends observed in the NASA figure suggest that
it is large- scale changes in the climate are more prominent that actual local factors that
could possibly be driving the fire activity increase. Max Moritz observed, Twenty eight
years is a pretty short period of record, and yet we are seeing statistically significant
trends in different wildfire variables it is striking. (Dennison, Brewer, Arnold, &
Moritz, 2014) Unfortunately for us, climate change may lead to shifts in storm patterns,
which directly affect the number of lighting-caused fires. Climate change can also lead to
changes in the composition and structure of forests, increasing the availability of
flammable materials.
Not only do these fire trends and findings affect our environmental and economic
surroundings, but financial costs to property owners and communities. The 2015 fire
season has proven to set new records as the earliest the national acreage has burned to
reach more than 7 million. The U.S. Forest Service ended up spending more than half of
its allotted budget in 2015 preparing for the threat of fires and actually fighting them, this
is comparative to 16% of their budget in 1995. The average cost for fire suppression
rounds out around $3 billion in 2015, compared to the $1 billion in the 1990s. In 2000,
the acreage that was burned doubled from 3.6 million acres to 6.5 million; placing the
average area burned in the U.S. between 7 and 9 million acres. (Climate Nexus, 2016)
Typically, it seems that most of the trends correlated with the NASA figure
provided that the results that the trends showed strong correlations with drought-related
circumstances. For the Eco regions with the largest increases in fire activity,

temperatures trended hotter and precipitation trended drier relative to Eco regions not
experiencing significant changes in fire variablesthese changes in fire activity are a
reflection of long-term, global fire trends that will likely occur with increased
temperature and drought severity in coming decades. (Dennison, 2014) Wildfire season
has grown 20 percent longer over the past 35 years across the entire globe, rising
temperatures, and fewer rainy days. Climate change has led to fire seasons that are 78
days longer, compared to findings in the 1970s. (Wildfires, 2016)
As observation and recording of wildfires in the past 42 years has increased, but
compared to the average in the 1970s the past decade has proven the statistics of:

7 times more fires greater than 10,000 acres each year

Nearly 5 times more fires larger than 25,000 acres each year
Twice as many fires over 1,000 acres each year, with an average of more
than 100 per year from 2002 through 2011, compared with less than 50
during the 1970s

Based on these facts findings have also proven that in some states the dramatic increase
in wildfires is even more sever. Since 1970 the average fires that grow over 1,000 acres
per year have nearly quadruped in Arizona and Idaho, and doubled in California,
Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming. Along with this
information I found that wildfires usually burn twice as much land area each year as they
did 40 years ago. Burn season is two and a half months longer than in the 1970s. (Climate
Central, 2012)
Most fire-history data come from recent decades and centuries when climate and
human activities have both undergone rapid and unique transformations. Jeremy Littell of

the U.S. Geological Survey in Anchorage, Alaska said the trends in fire activity reported
in the paper resemble what would be expected from rising temperature caused by climate
change. Other factors could include invasion of non-native species and past fire
management practices, are also likely contributing to the observed changes in fire
activity. Littell along with Moritz said, Increases in fire activity in forested areas could
be at least a partial response to decades of fire suppression. (Dennison, Brewer, Arnold,
& Moritz, 2014)
This trend toward earlier large fires at higher elevation agrees with previous
findings that early snowmelt may contribute to earlier fire seasons (Dennison, 2014)
We show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s,
with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire
seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests,
where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly
associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring
snowmelt. (Westerling, 2006)
We can hardly expect all of this chaos to not effect us 20-30 years down the road,
especially not to effect changes in air quality. Researchers have calculated the results for
low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. In both cases, results suggest more fire
seasons that are longer and stronger across all regions of the U.S. in the next 30-50 years.
Specifically, high fire years like 2012 would likely occur two to four times per decade by
mid-century, instead of once per decade under current climate conditions. (Hansen, 2012)
As the rising spring and summer temperatures across the west appear correlated with
increasing wildfire size and severity. Due to the fact that since 1970, recorded years with

above-average summer temperatures were usually years with the higher risk and
eventually the biggest wildfires. (Climate Central, 2012) Based on these findings,
researches expect drier and more wildfireprone areas in the U.S. in future decades. As
stated previously research has confirmed that there is, in fact, a connection between the
measurements of the environments potential evaporation, and/or dryness and the
projected fire activity of that specific area. Most fire-history data come from recent
decades and centuries when climate and human activities have both undergone rapid and
unique transformation.

Works Cited

Marlon, J. (2012). Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA. Proceedings

Of The National Academy Of Sciences, 109(9), E535-E543.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1112839109
Dennison, P., Brewer, S., Arnold, J., & Moritz, M. (2014). More, bigger wildfires
burning western U.S., study shows. AGU Newsroom. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
Hansen, K. (2012). NASA - Climate Models Project Increase in U.S. Wildfire Risk.
Nasa.gov. Retrieved 1 August 2016, from
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate-fire.html
Wildfires. Climate Nexus. Retrieved 1 August 2016, from
http://climatenexus.org/learn/extreme-weather/wildfires