Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FED SURVEY
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on August 18-20, 2016. Participants were not required to answer every question.
April 30,
10%
50%
60%
70%
80%
79.5%
0.0%
40%
0.0%
Don't know/unsure
30%
20.5%
20%
90%
100%
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
(For those answering rates would be kept unchanged)
What is the main reason the Fed will keep rates unchanged
FED SURVEY
at its upcoming
meeting?
April 30,
June 14
July 26
0%
10%
30%
40%
29%
18%
14%
50%
37%
27%
41%
0%
0%
3%
13%
17%
0%
50%
0%
0%
Other:
60%
33%
15%
20%
5%
Other
Don't know/unsure
Aug 24
No reason to hike.
Presidential election
Reluctance to change policy ahead of U.S.
elections
Risk aversion, wait for more data
They're afraid to take action this close to an
election.
Uncertain about reaching 2% target inflation
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
2. After its upcoming meeting, the Federal Reserve's next
FEDmove
SURVEY
directional
will most likely be:
April 30,
Raise interest rates
100%
100%
94%
90%
88%
90%
95%
Raise interest rates
92%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
10%
10%
4%
5%
3%
3%
0%
Jan 27
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
Jul 26
Aug 24
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
When will the Federal Reserve make its next move?
FED SURVEY
30, 26
March 15 AprilApril
Survey
Survey
For
those
who
said:
Avg.
month
For
those
who
said:
Raise
rates
(90%)
June
2016
Raise
rates
(94%)
Lower
rates
(10%)
Oct
2016
Lower
rates
(4%)
--
Move
to neg.
rates
(0%)
--
New
quant.
easing
(2%)
Move
to neg.
rates
(0%)
New
quant.
easing
(0%)
June 14
Survey
Avg.
month
For
those
who
said:
Avg.
month
August
2016
Raise
rates
(95%)
Sept
2016
Sept
2016
Lower
rates
(3%)
2016
For
those
who
said:
Raise
rates
(100%)
Lower
rates
(0%)
--
Move
to neg.
rates
(0%)
--
Move to
neg.
rates
(0%)
Dec
2016
New
quant.
easing
(3%)
March
2017
New
quant.
easing
(0%)
Oct
July 26
Survey
Avg.
month
Dec
2016
August 24
Survey
For
those
who
said:
Raise
rates
(92%)
Avg.
month
Jan
2017
--
Lower
rates
(3%)
June
2017
--
Move to
neg.
rates
(0%)
--
--
New
quant.
easing
(5%)
March
2017
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
3. How many times will the Federal Reserve hike rates this year
(2016)?
FED SURVEY
5.00
April 30,
4.50
4.00
3.50
2.83
3.00
2.50
2.10
1.88
2.00
1.60
1.54
1.50
0.86
1.00
0.95
0.50
0.00
Dec 15
'15
Jan 26
'16
Mar 15
Apr 26
Survey Dates
Jun 14
Jul 26
Aug 24
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
4. The current presidential campaign is:
Positive for economic outlook
FED SURVEY
Negative for economic outlook
70%
No effect
61%
60%
58%
56%
60%
58%
50%
42%
40%
39%
40%
37%
38%
Negative
30%
20%
10%
Positive
5%
2%
3%
Apr 26
Jun 14
2%
0%
0%
Mar 15
Jul 26
Aug 24
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
5. Which would be the best presidential election outcome for the
economy?
FED SURVEY
A Democrat wins
April 30,
Doesn't matter
A Republican wins
Don't know/unsure
50%
Democrat wins
45%
40%
47%
43%
Republican Wins
40%
37%
37%
35%
35%
30%
26%
30%
28%
26%
25%
23%
24%
20%
21%
18%
Doesn't matter
15%
16%
15%
10%
10%
8%
9%
5%
Don't know/unsure
0%
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
Jul 26
Aug 24
Note:
Starting with the question in this months survey Republican wins was changed to Trump wins and
Democrat wins was changed to Clinton wins
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
6. Which candidate has best economic policies?
60%
Jun 14
FED SURVEY
Jul 26
Aug 24
April 30,
50%
45%
42%
40%
40%
30%
44%
30%
32%
25% 24%
18%
20%
10%
0%
Clinton
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
Which candidate would be best for the stock market?
Jun 14
FED SURVEY
60%
Aug 24
April 30,
50%
40%
Jul 26
47%
38% 38%
38%
31% 32%
31%
30%
25%
21%
20%
10%
0%
Clinton
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
7. Please rate the proposed economic policies of each candidate in
the following areas on a scale of 0 to 5. (Higher number
FED
SURVEY
indicates
a better
policy.)
April 30,
Clinton
0.00
Taxes
Trump
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
1.63
3.11
Business regulation
1.55
3.11
2.61
Trade
1.26
2.32
Jobs
2.37
2.18
Budget deficits
1.55
5.00
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
8. Who is most likely to win this year's presidential election?
Apr 26
FED SURVEY
90%
80%
Jun 14
Jul 26
Aug 24
April 30,
84%
80% 80%
70%
60%
52%
50%
40%
30%
26%
21%
20%
13%
15%
11%
10%
7%
5%
5%
0%
Clinton
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
9. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on ?
December 31, 2016
FED SURVEY
2,350
2,300
April 30,
2311
2296
2,250
2247
2293
2254
2259
2234
2223
2275
2249
2244
2196
2183
2200
2,200
2166
2,150
2158
2159
2140
2,100
2149
2114
2107
2,050
2088
2035
2,000
2000
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
Jul Aug
26 24
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
10.
What do you expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
will be on ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
4.0%
3.52%
3.5%
3.14%
3.0%
3.24%
3.17%
3.09%
2.88%
3.04%
2.83%
2.89%
2.88%
2.67%
2.58%
2.67%
2.5%
2.51%
2.54%
2.26%
2.24%
2.34%
2.11%
2.10%
2.0%
1.76%
1.75%
1.5%
1.0%
Jun
14
Jul
26
Aug
24
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
11.
?
April 30,
2.5%
2.17%
2.13%
2.04%
2.07%
2.0%
1.99%
1.93%
1.87%
1.84%
1.75%
1.61% 1.62%
1.56%
1.5%
1.61%
1.60%
1.78%
1.49%
1.41%
1.46%
1.43%
1.17%
1.22%
1.18%
1.0%
1.12%
0.91%
0.5%
0.0%
0.88%
0.84%
0.90%
0.85%
0.78%
0.74%
0.61%
0.59%
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
12.
At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
SURVEY
terminalFED
rate?
April 30,
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.16%
3.0%
3.06%
2.98%
3.04%
2.85% 2.79%
2.5%
2.69%
2.65%
2.58%
2.73%
2.65%
2.64%
2.56%
2.42%
2.29%
2.0%
Survey Dates
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
13.
When do you believe fed funds will reach its terminal rate?
FED SURVEY
Survey Date
April 30,
Forecast
August 20 survey
Q4 2017
September 16 survey
Q3 2017
October 28 survey
Q4 2017
December 16 survey
Q1 2018
Q1 2018
March 17 survey
Q4 2017
April 28 survey
Q1 2018
June 16 survey
Q1 2018
July 28 survey
Q2 2018
August 25 survey
Q3 2018
September 16 survey
Q1 2018
October 27 survey
Q3 2018
December 15 survey
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Mar 15 survey
Q3 2018
Apr 26 survey
Q4 2018
Jun 14 survey
Q4 2018
Jul 26 survey
Q4 2018
Aug 24 survey
Q4 2018
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
14.
What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage
change in real U.S. GDP for ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
2016
2017
3.0%
+2.88%
2.8%
+2.84%
+2.81%
+2.78%
+2.80%
+2.70%
+2.64%
+2.60%
2.6%
+2.43%
2.4%
+2.45%
+2.41%
+2.31%
2.2%
+2.17%
+2.14%
+2.25% +2.26%
+2.21%
+2.24%
+2.08%
+2.05%
2.0%
+1.95%
+1.88%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec 16
Jan 27,
Mar 17
'15
April
28
Jun 16 Jul 28
Sept
16
Oct 27 Dec 15
Jan 26
Mar 15 Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Aug 24
'16
2016 +2.88%+2.80%+2.84%+2.81%+2.78%+2.70%+2.64%+2.60%+2.45%+2.17%+2.14%+1.95%+2.05%+2.08%+1.88%
2017
+2.43%+2.31%+2.41%+2.21%+2.25%+2.26%+2.24%
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
15.
What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage
change in the headline U.S. CPI for ?
FED SURVEY
2016
April 30,
2017
2.4%
2.17%
2.24%
2.2%
2.17%
2.17%
2.08%
2.12%
2.12%
2.07%
2.0%
2.20%
2.13%
2.07%
2.02%
1.89% 1.88%
1.96%
1.8%
1.72%
1.75%
1.75%
1.66%
1.6%
1.57%
1.50%
1.4%
1.45%
1.2%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar April Jun
16 27, 17
28
16
'15
Survey Dates
Jun
14
Jul
26
Aug
24
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
16.
When do you expect the Fed to allow its balance sheet to
decline?
FED SURVEY
April
30,
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Aug '16
Sep '16
Oct '16
Nov '16
5%
Dec '16
3%
Jan '17
3%
Feb '17
Mar '17
8%
Apr '17
May '17
5%
Jun '17
Jul '17
11%
3%
46%
16%
50%
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
20%
15%
8%
4%
8%
5%
7%
10%
3%
12%
6%
31%
40%
0%
6%
3%
3%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
2%
3%
31%
28%
30%
27%
29%
32%
21%
23%
26%
29%
26%
18%
14%
13%
14%
11%
17%
21%
16%
8%
10%
10%
21%
22%
28%
20%
19%
20%
20%
22%
22%
24%
29%
30%
26%
21%
12%
29%
15%
14%
9%
0%
8%
3%
9%
2%
5%
5%
5%
3%
2%
5%
7%
3%
0%
3%
0%
2%
3%
2%
2%
3%
3%
6%
6%
3%
3%
0%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
0%
2%
3%
2%
3%
2%
3%
2%
0%
3%
0%
0%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
6%
0%
6%
0%
0%
0%
4%
8%
0%
3%
0%
2%
0%
2%
0%
2%
0%
2%
4%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10%
18%
8%
15%
12%
5%
8%
12%
6%
10%
3%
6%
6%
6%
14%
12%
0%
8%
8%
0%
5%
0%
3%
2%
3%
18%
12%
11%
8%
14%
16%
8%
11%
25%
6%
8%
13%
10%
5%
5%
7%
0%
10%
3%
41%
28%
28%
22%
29%
45%
41%
44%
44%
33%
36%
28%
22%
31%
6%
17%
8%
6%
9%
8%
10%
5%
8%
5%
9%
8%
7%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
Other responses:
Fear itself
weak capex
3%
7%
5%
7%
6%
13%
7%
14%
11%
13%
14%
7%
13%
2%
21%
18%
13%
12%
11%
8%
3%
16%
14%
19%
11%
9%
14%
5%
15%
23%
21%
11%
10%
7%
11%
Don't know/
unsure
Other
Protectionist trade
policies
Outcome of US
presidential election
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Tax/
regulatory policies
Survey
Date
Apr 30
Jun 18
Jul 30
Sep 17
Oct 29
Dec 17
Jan 28 '14
Mar 18
Apr 28
Jul 29
Sep 16
Oct 28
Dec 16
Jan 27 '15
Mar 17
April 28
Jun 16
Jul 28
Sept 16
Oct 27
Dec 15
Jan 26 '16
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
Jul 26
Aug 24
European recession/
financial crisis
April 30,
Geopolitical risks
FED SURVEY
17.
What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S. economic
recovery?
0%
0%
4%
2%
0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
3%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
3%
0%
2%
0%
2%
0%
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
18.
In the next 12 months, what percent probability do
you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No
FED
SURVEY
chance of
recession,
100%=Certainty of recession)
April 30,
40%
36.1%
35%
34.0%
30%
28.8%
28.5%
26.0%
25%
25.9%
24.4%
25.5%
23.5%
22.9%
22.1%
20%
20.6%
20.3%
19.1%
15%
24.1%
22.2%
21.1%
20.4%
21.6%
18.2% 18.4%
18.6%
17.3%
16.9%
16.4%
17.4%
16.2%
16.9%
17.6%
15.1%
16.2%
15.2%
15.3%
15.0%
14.6%
15.1%
14.7%
13.6%
13.0%
10%
Survey Dates
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
19.
In the next 12 months, what percent probability do
you place on the UK and EU entering recession?
FED SURVEYJul 26
April 30,
Aug 24
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
55.1%
51.7%
50%
38.3%
40%
34.6%
30%
20%
10%
0%
UK
EU
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
20.
50%
FED SURVEY
46%
April 30,
45%
40%
38%
35%
30%
25%
20%
16%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Mostly influenced by
the latest economic
data
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
21.
Do Fed officials have a framework for deciding when
to adjust policy?
70%
FED SURVEY
April 30,
60%
60%
50%
40%
30%
24%
20%
16%
10%
0%
Yes
No
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
22.
Relative to the Fed's current stance on monetary
policy, what tone do you expect from the Jackson Hole
SURVEY
meetingFED
this year?
April 30,
60%
54%
50%
40%
30%
24%
20%
14%
8%
10%
0%
More dovish
More hawkish
Neutral
Don't
know/unsure
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
23.
FED SURVEY
April 30,
Other
19%
Currencies
0%
Fixed Income
8%
Economics
49%
Equities
24%
Comments:
Jim Bianco, Bianco Research: It should now be apparent that the
Fed has lost control of monetary policy. The markets are now
setting it. Whatever markets price in they get, because the Fed is
too afraid of causing a financial crisis with a surprise hike. In other
words, the inmates are running the asylum.
Peter Boockvar, The Lindsey Group: Being on constant Fed
Watch has become so exhausting. We've been led in so many
different directions only to be spun around again that until I see
exactly what they do, I'm losing patience in listening to what they
say.
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
Lou Brien, DRW Trading Group: The tricky thing for the Fed is
that they want to raise the funds rate. At the very least they want
SURVEY
the market to FED
believe
that they want to hike, while at the same time
April 30,
Yellen is suggesting
the eventual funds rate target is moving lower
because the assumed "neutral" rate is coming down, the result of
slow growth productivity.
John Donaldson, Haverford Trust Co.: The probabilities for fed
funds hikes are very understated as a result of the pending money
market fund regulation changes. The real odds of a hike are masked
by distortions in the pricing of short-term Treasury issues. You
should ignore the WIRP page on your Bloomberg.
Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research: This is about intent.
The Fed does not intend to raise rates until they are forced to chase
the yield curve higher.
Mike Englund, Action Economics: The U.S. economy is stuck in a
slow-growth expansion that will never leave Fed doves comfortable
with tightening, though a desire for concession with Fed hawks will
allow one tightening before year-end, as seen last year. Dodd-Frank
regulations designed to minimize risk-taking, alongside other
regulatory headwinds, are incompatible with historically normal rates
of U.S. economic growth, leaving pressure for an excessively easy
monetary policy.
Robert Fry, Robert Fry Economics: This is how I would have
preferred to answer #20: Current Fed policy is . . . based on a
faulty model of the economy that significantly overstates the impact
of interest rates (especially long-term rates) on business fixed
investment and housing and fails to take into account the negative
impact of low interest rates on people who save via savings accounts
and CDs.
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
Art Hogan, Wunderlich Securities: The market has crossed the
Rubicon and is ready for rate normalization. Good news is good news
FED
in the economy.
TheSURVEY
Fed should take advantage of that. They can't
Aprilin30,
be the only policy
the economy. We need better fiscal policy
desperately.
Constance Hunter, KPMG LLP: The Fed is well aware that the
paradigms are shifting. The most recent minutes as well as recent
comments by Williams and Bullard reflect that they are evaluating
the monetary policy framework. There also appears to be a more
hawkish view from the regional presidents versus the governors in
Washington. All of this adds up to one more hike this year and then
a prudent wait and see attitude into the 1st half of 2017.
#rateslowforlongtime.
John Kattar, Ardent Asset Advisors: A hawkish tone at Jackson
Hole would be a surprise, but I do expect Yellen to focus on the
likelihood of a rate hike in the intermediate term (likely December.)
Jack Kleinhenz, NRF Chief Economist: More clarity from the Fed
about its policy formula would be constructive. The consumer
remains in a good place- rising or steady wage growth, job gains,
not over-leveraged, steady confidence with healthy balance sheets.
David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors: The LIBOR spike so far is the
same as a quarter-point hike by the Fed when measured on the
private sector. So we've had a rate hike from rule changes, not the
Fed. We will have more LIBOR spike in September; hence another
hike. LIBOR is why the Fed will wait until December.
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
Subodh Kumar, Subodh Kumar & Associates: Currently, capital
markets may appear mesmerized by central banks and quantitative
FED
SURVEY
ease. Evidence
emerges
of distortive effects, such as negative
30, beyond Japan but with little tangible benefit
interest rates April
now well
and with far from consistent currency movements. A confrontation in
politics appears in the U.S. election but also in Russia at its borders
and China in Asia, not to mention the depths of violence in the
Levant. A change in focus is needed from beating consensus and
towards drilling more in depth on delivery. It is on value over
momentum, restructuring over low interest rate dependence. In
asset mix, the requirements for diversification seem strong to us. We
would include alternates like precious metals or cash, and not
just look at diversification within fixed income or equities.
Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott: There's an attempt afoot
to return the Jackson Hole conference to its academic roots and
avoid the "rate hike spectacle" that it's become in the last few years.
Expect a lot of discussion on the long term--especially the concept of
equilibrium rates--but very little September versus December hints.
For good reason. The longer term matters a lot more.
Rob Morgan, Sethi Financial Group: The Fed rarely raises rates
prior to a presidential election. This year will be no different.
Chad Morganlander, Stifel Nicolaus (Washington Crossing
Advisors): The Federal Reserve will not risk unhinging the financial
system before the election. Investors should expect the Fed
message to change after November.
Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors: When you base policy on
current data that are volatile, you get volatile policy statements and
that is not a way to run anything.
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
James Paulsen, Wells Capital Management: The biggest impact
of the Fed meetings next week may be on the global sovereign bond
FED
market. If the
Fed SURVEY
is a bit more hawkish than anticipated, could the
30,10-year yield back above pre-Brexit levels
week end withApril
the US
while 10-year yields in both the Eurozone and Japan rise back above
zero? That is, since economic surprise indexes are recently rising
about the globe, could a more hawkish Fed leave a Jackson Hole
legacy of a bottom in "global" bond yields?
Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University: The Fed had
always wanted to anticipate, not react, but the safe course is now to
follow the economy. Policymakers see much higher risks of moving
too early than too late.
John Roberts, Hilliard Lyons: Uncertainty around economic
policies of the presidential candidates is likely to lead to economic
and market uncertainty in the near term, and the market could stay
in a trading range as a result.
Allen Sinai, Decision Economics: The big enchilada for the Fed is
expected price inflation and achieving the 2% target in time.
Hank Smith, Haverford Investments: If we have a strong jobs
number in August the Fed will raise rates in September despite the
election
Diane Swonk, Diane Swonk & Associates: The Fed has failed to
come to a consensus on communications. The blow to credibility is
leaving markets pricing a form of infinite easing. This has helped
buoy markets through external shocks (China, Brexit) but raises
questions about how the Fed extricates itself from ultra-easy
policies. If it raises rates even a little bit in this environment, it will
likely destabilize financial markets: if it doesn't, it feeds the reach for
yield, which seeds bubbles. It is a Catch-22 that the Fed has not
been willing to admit (realize) publicly.
CNBC Fed Survey August 24, 2016
Page 30 of 31
FED SURVEY
August 24, 2016
Peter Tanous, Lynx Investment Advisory: The effect of the
presidential election on the economy is overrated. Both Democratic
FED
SURVEY
and Republican
economic
proposals are silly in the extreme and
Aprilthe
30,
would never pass
House and Senate.
Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute: U.S. economic
data, in our opinion, have increased confidence that the domestic
economy is not likely to stumble into a recession over the coming 12
months. We expect the SPX to have some downside volatility in the
September/October period - the market is unlikely to keep going
straight up - but we have confidence in our 2190-2290 year-end
2016 target. Any pullbacks toward the 2050 technical support area
are buying opportunities. Consumer Discretionary, Industrials,
Technology and Health Care are our overweight sectors.
Underweight the overvalued Consumer Staples, Telecom and Utilities
sectors.
Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics: The economy continues to
perform well and its near-term prospects are good. The most serious
threat is the persistently slow potential growth. Policies that promote
more high-skilled immigration, infrastructure spending, and
educational attainment are vital to ensure stronger longer-term
growth.
Clare Zempel, Zempel Strategic: If there is a positive shock in
Jackson Hole, it could be that the Fed downplays inflation targeting
and shifts toward nominal GDP targeting, with a 4-5% rate objective
for nominal expansion.