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Strict regulation of
especially short-term debt;
external
commercial
borrowings,
Introduction to FII
Since 1990-91, the Government of India embarked on
liberalization and economic reforms with a view of bringing
about rapid and substantial economic growth and move towards
globalization of the economy. As a part of the reforms process,
LITERATURE REVIEW
Jatinder Loomba, (2012) attempted to testify the behavior of
FII trading and its effect on Indian stock market.He observed that
in the course of capital market liberalization, foreign capital has
become increasingly significant source of finance and
institutional investors are growing their influence in developing
markets. He concluded that the Indian stock markets have come
in age where there were significant developments in the last 15
years make the markets at par with the developed markets.
Karan Walia, Dr. Rimpi Walia, Monika Jain, (2012)
examined the contribution of foreign institutional investment in
sensitivity index (Sensex). Also attempts to understand the
behavioral pattern of FII during the period of 2001 to 2010 and
examine the volatility of BSE Sensex due to FII. They found that
the FIIs are influencing the sensex movement to a greater
extent. Further it is evident that the sensex has increased when
there are positive inflows of FIIs and there were decrease in
sensex when there were negative FII inflows.
Dr. Manjinder Kaur, Dr. Sharanjit S. Dhillon, (2015) found
that the study found that a bi-directional causality exists
between stock prices (Sensex) and net investment of Foreign
Institutional Investors (FIIs). The study also concluded that FIIs
investment is a major factor behind both financial and
macroeconomic instability in India.
Equit
y
13
Debt
Total
net
FIIs
13
5127
5127
5114
4796
4796
-331
199596
199697
199798
199899
6942
6942
2146
8546
29
8575
1633
5267
691
5958
-2617
-717
-867
-1584
-7542
199900
9670
453
1012
2
11706
200001
1020
7
-273
9933
-189
200102
8072
690
8763
-1170
200203
2527
162
2689
-6074
200304
200405
2005-
3996
0
4412
3
4880
5805
4576
5
4588
1
4146
43076
Finan
cial
Year
199293
199394
199495
1759
-7334
Change
in
FIIs
investm
ents
116
-4414
%
change
6.4560
2
44.745
62
23.523
48
-30.519
126.58
6
739.01
5
1.8672
2
11.778
9
69.314
2
1601.9
34
0.2534
69
-
06
200607
2523
6
5605
3084
0
-10627
200708
200809
1277
5
1895
3243
8
6617
9
4581
1
1426
58
35339
200910
5340
4
4770
6
1102
21
201011
201112
1101
21
4373
8
3631
7
4998
8
1464
38
9372
6
201213
201314
1400
33
7970
9
1683
67
5164
9
201415
201516
1113
33
1417
2
2957
3
2833
4
2806
0
1661
27
-4004
201617 *
1028
2774
61
1817
6
3060
1
-111990
188469
3780
-52712
74641
-116718
225812
-295637
48777
9.6205
4
25.627
6
114.58
82
169.22
3
411.40
6
2.6496
94
35.996
1
79.637
45
69.323
6
437.20
5
106.55
1
268.35
9
Source: Table 1
This period was ripe enough for FII Investments as that time the
Indian economy posted strong fundamentals, stable exchange
rate expectations and offered investment incentives and
congenial climate for investment of these funds in India. In 1997
several changes were made to the SEBI regulations to diversify
the foreign institutional investor base and to further facilitate
inflow of foreign portfolio investment. The changes had also
aimed at facilitating investment in debt securities through FII
route.
During 1997-98, FII inflows posted a fall of 30.05 %. This slack in
investments by FIIs was primarily because of the S-East Asian
Crisis and the months of volatility experienced during November
1997 and February 1998. This was primarily due to the economic
sanctions imposed on India by Japan, US and other industrialized
economies. These economic sanctions were the result of the
testing of series of nuclear bombs by India in May 1998. FII
investment posted a year-on-year decline of 1.86 % in 2000-01,
11.78 % in 2001-02 and 69.31 % in 2002-03. Investments by FIIs
rebounded from depressed levels from the year 2003-04 and
witnessed an unprecedented surge. FIIs flows were recycled to
India following readjustment of global portfolios of institutional
investors, triggered by robust growth in Indian economy and
attractive valuations in the Indian equity market as compared
with other emerging market economies in Asia. Several factors
were responsible for increasing confidence of FIIs on the Indian
stock market which include:
Strong economic fundamentals and attractive valuations of
companies.
Improved regulatory standards, high quality of disclosure
and corporate governance requirement, accounting
standards, shortening of settlement cycles, efficiency of
clearing and settlement systems and risk management
mechanisms.
Product diversification and introduction of derivatives.
% change in FIIs
2000
1500
1000
500
% change
0
-500
-1000
YEAR
Source: Table 1
300000
250000
25000
200000
20000
150000
15000
100000
Sensex/nifty
50000
10000
FIIs
0
5000
-50000
-100000
YEAR
SENSEX Close
Nifty Close
FIIs
From the above chart it is evident that FIIs and Nifty, FIIs and
Sensex move in the same direction that is there exists a positive
correlation between the BSE Sensex and FII fund flows and
between NSE Nifty and FII fund flows. It can be observed that FIIs
have significant influence on the sentiments and price trends in
the Indian equity market.
The table also shows that the rise of Sensex in 2007 was largely
fuelled by the money pumped in by the FIIs which led to the
market touching 20,000, but in 2008, with the global economy in
doldrums, the FIIs were net sellers and took the market down.
FIIs pulling money from the market has resulted in a fall as There
were many instances in the last decade where FIIs pulled out
money from the stock market and at both these times the stock
market went down. The pull-out was fairly severe in 2008, and
the market fall was very bad as well.
The pull-out resulted in the fall of stock prices, as a result the
Sensex fell from its closing peak of 20,0873 on Jan 8,2008 to less
than 10,000 by Oct 17,2008Again in 2010, Sensex touched
20,000 when FII were at its peak.
Impact of FII on Economic Indicators in India FII flow affects the economy of country
Balance of Payment: A net positive swing in invisibles (due to
increase in software exports and remittances sent by Indians
working abroad) and increase in investments (both FDI and FII),
Objectives of Study
To study the trends and patterns of foreign capital flow into
India in the form of FIIs.
To find relation between FIIs & Sensex.
To find relation between FIIs & Nifty
To examine whether FIIs have any influence on SENSEX
and NIFTY
Scope of Study
The study takes 20 years data into consideration. To study the
impact of FII on Indian stock market, Sensex and Nifty was
selected in the study, as it is the most systematic stock market
indices and widely used by market participants for
benchmarking.
Research Methodology:
Data Collection: This study is based on secondary data. In this
research data is collected from official website of BSE and
SEBI. CNX Nifty data is downloaded from the websites of NSE.
Monthly closing index value are taken. The current study
considers 20 years data starting from Jan 1996 to 2016 (till
July).
Analytical tools and technique:
In order to analyze the collected data the statistical tools such
as correlation and regression is used. The correlation
coefficient (a value between -1 and +1) tells you how strongly
two variables are related to each other.
A correlation coefficient of +1 indicates a perfect positive
correlation. As variable X increases, variable Y increases.
A correlation coefficient of -1 indicates a perfect negative
correlation. As variable X increases, variable Z decreases.
A correlation coefficient near 0 indicates no correlation
The regression analysis is a statistical technique used to
evaluate the effects of Independent variables on a single
dependent variable. In this research project impact of FII is on
the Sensex is done on the monthly data of last 20 years. In
which FII is independent variable and Sensex is dependent
variable. Similarly, For Nifty impact of FII is on the Nifty is done
on the monthly data of last 20 years. In which FII is
independent variable and Nifty is dependent variable.
Correlation and Regression is calculated with the help of SPSS
(Statistical Package for Social Sciences) Software.
FINDINGS
FIIs AND SENSEX
Hypothesis:
(1) H0: There is no significant impact of FIIs inflow on the stock market
index (BSE-Sensex) movement
(2) HA: There is significant impact of FIIs inflow on the stock market index
(BSE-Sensex) movement
Table
1.1
Statistics
Descriptive
Mean
Std.
Deviat
ion
sense
x
11623.
8862
8131.6
4788
247
fii
4585.1
599
10300.
67791
247
sensex 1.000
.394
fii
1.000
.394
sensex .
.000
fii
.000
sensex 247
247
fii
247
247