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MATH 2565 3.

0 (2016 winter)
Assignment 3
(Due Date: March 15, 2016)
Question 1: Carlinville, Illinois, has just started an ambitious recycling program. Special
trucks collect recyclable products once a week, sorted into barrels of paper, glass, and plastic.
The amount of glass recycled per week by a single household is normally distributed with
mean 27 pounds and standard deviation 7 pounds. Suppose 12 households are randomly
selected.
a. What is the probability that the total glass collected for the 12 homes will be less than
350 pounds?
be the average
Solution: Let T = the total glass collected for the 12 homes and let X
N (27, 49/12).
glass collected for the 12 homes. T N (324, 588) or X
q

< 29.17) = P (Z < (29.17 27)/ 49/12) = P (Z < 1.07) = 0.8577


P (T < 350) = P (X
b. If the total glass collected for the 12 homes is more than 400 pounds, the recycling
plant will make a profit. Find a value of population mean such that the probability of
making a profit is 0.10.
N (, 49/12) P (T > 400) = P (X
> 33.33) =
Solution: T N (12, 588) or X
q

0.1 P (Z < (33.33 )/ 49/12) = 0.9 (33.33 )/ 49/12 = 1.2816 or 1.28;


therefore, = 30.74.
Question 2: There are three factors that affect the width of a large-sample confidence
interval for population proportion p: the confidence level, the sample size, and the sample
proportion p. In each of the following problems, determine whether the width of the resulting
confidence interval for p increases or decreases.
a. Confidence level and p are constant, and n increases.
Solution: As n increases, the square root becomes smaller and the resulting width of
CI decreases.
b. Sample size and p are constant, and confidence level decreases.
Solution: As the confidence level decreases, increases, the critical values decreases,
and the resulting width decreases.
c. Sample size and confidence level are constant, given p > 0.5 and p increases.
Solution: As p increases and given p > 0.5, the product p(1 p) decreases and the
resulting width of CI decreases.
Question 3: The Australian dragon fly, the worlds fastest insect, has been clocked at 36
miles per hour over short distances. A biologist captured 25 Australian dragon flies and
she recorded the average wingspan of these captured dragon flies of 6.6cm. The biologist
assumed that the wingspan is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 0.5cm.
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a. Find a 98.3% confidence interval for the true mean wingspan for all dragon flies.
b. Interpret the interval obtained in part (a) in the context of this question.
c. If a 90% confidence interval for the true mean wingspan for all dragon flies is calculated,
do you expect this interval be wider or narrower than the interval obtained in part (a)?
Why?
d. If the biologist assumed that the standard deviation of the wingspan of Australia
dragon fly is 0.25cm and a 98.3% confidence interval for the true mean wingspan for
all dragon flies is calculated, do you expect this interval be wider or narrower than the
interval obtained in part (a)? Why?
Solution: Let X be the wingspan of dragon fly. It is given that n = 25; x = 6.6, = 0.5
and the wingspan is distributed as normal.
a. A 98.3%
confidence interval for the true mean wingspan for all dragon flies is 6.6
q
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2.39 0.5 /25 (6.361; 6.839).
b. Based on the given data, we are 98.3% certain that the mean wingspan for all dragon
files is between 6.361cm and 6.839cm.
c. Since the required table value will be smaller in the 90% CI than the 98.3% CI, therefore
the interval will be narrower for the 90% CI.
d. When = 0.25, the margin of error will be smaller than the margin of error for = 0.5,
therefore the 98.3% CI obtained using = 0.25 will be narrower than the 98.3% CI
obtained
Question 4: Consider a random sample of 11 observations, given in the following, from a
normal population with hypothesized mean 57.71.
59.94 58.93 59.41 60.66 59.00 60.98 58.85 55.21 59.02 61.14 59.25
a. Compute the value of the test statistic for H0 : = 57.71 versus Ha : > 57.71 with
= 0.01. Draw a conclusion about the population mean.
b. Write down the formula to get the p value associated with this hypothesis test.

0 , the observed test statistic t = 59.308257.71


Solution: (a)T = X
= 3.3053 t0.01,10 =
S/ n
1.6037/ 11
2.7638. There is evidence to suggest that the mean is greater than 57.71.
(b) p = P (T 3.3053), T has t-distribution with 10 df.

Question 5: Kiln-dried solid grade A teak wood should have a moisture content of no
more than 12%. A furniture company recently purchased a large shipment of this wood to
construct dining room sets. Thirty-seven pieces of teak wood were randomly selected and
carefully measured for moisture content. The sample mean moisture content was 12.3%.
Assume the population standard deviation is 1.25%.
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a. Is there any evidence to suggest that the true population mean moisture content is
greater than 12%? use = 0.05.
Solution: H0
: = 12% versus Ha : > 12%. The observed TS = (12.3%
12%)/(1.25%/ 37) = 1.46 < z0.05 = 1.645 FTRH0 . There is no evidence to suggest
that the population mean moisture content is greater than 12%.
b. Find the probability of a Type II error if the true population mean moisture content
is 12.1%.

12.338%) = 0.05 (12.1%) =

Solution: P ( X12%
1.645) = 0.05 P (X
1.25%/ 37

< 12.338%| = 12.1%) = P ( X12.1%

P (F T RH0 | = 12.1%) = P (X
<
1.25%/ 37
P (Z < 1.158) = 87.7%

12.338%12.1%

)
1.25%/ 37

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