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CEPT University, Kasturbhai Lalbhai Campus, University Road, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, Gujarat 380015, India
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 17 January 2015
Revised 6 June 2015
Accepted 9 July 2015
Available online xxxx
Keywords:
Low carbon transport
Cities
Co-benefits
Scenarios
a b s t r a c t
Rising population, income and urbanization are increasing urban passenger transport
demand in India. Energy and emissions intensities associated with conventional transport
are no longer sustainable vis-a-vis energy security, air quality and climate change. Cities
are seeking transport roadmaps that jointly mitigate these risks. Roadmaps vary across
cities, but approach to delineate actions is common: (i) representative vision that
articulates long-term goals, (ii) methods for comparative scenarios assessment, and
(iii) quantification of co-benefits to prioritize actions. This paper illustrates application of
quantitative modeling to assess development and environmental co-benefits for
Ahmedabad city. The paper constructs two transport scenarios spanning till 2035. The
bifurcating themes are: (i) Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Low Carbon Scenario (LCS). The
quantitative assessment using Extended Snapshot (ExSS) Model shows that transport
activity shall result in four-fold increase in energy demand under BAU from 2010 to
2035. Three key contributors to CO2 mitigation under LCS in merit order are: (i) fuel switch,
including decarbonized electricity, (ii) modal shift, and (iii) substitution of travel demand.
Scenarios analysis shows that LCS improves energy security by reducing oil demand and
also delivers air quality co-benefits reducing 74% NOx and 83% PM2.5 from the passenger
transport sector compared to BAU in 2035. Finally, the paper argues that cities in developing countries can leverage carbon finance to develop sustainable and low carbon mobility
plans that prevent adverse infrastructure and behavioral lock-ins and prompt low carbon
development.
2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Introduction
The transport sector in India contributes 13% of Indias GHG emissions (MoEF, 2010). Growing energy use from urban passenger transport is a concern for India which is experiencing increasing population growth, urbanization and rapid economic
growth. In the business-as-usual scenario, this demand will be met by oil resulting in challenges of national energy security
as well as local issues of air pollution and congestion. India is currently the fourth largest GHG emitter globally (Oliver et al.,
2012) and mitigating emissions from energy use is a pressing concern. Urban areas contribute around 60% to the national
economy (GoI, 2011a), and are responsible for a significant share of in transport demand and energy consumption.
Studies examining transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions at the city level for India are limited. Existing studies
for Indian cities have focused on social and environmental impacts of transport or assessment of urban transport policies or
Corresponding author. Tel.: +91 79 9898727697.
E-mail addresses: minal.pathak@cept.ac.in (M. Pathak), shukla@iimahd.ernet.in (P.R. Shukla).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.013
1361-9209/ 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article in press as: Pathak, M., Shukla, P.R. Co-benefits of low carbon passenger transport actions in Indian cities: Case study
of Ahmedabad. Transport. Res. Part D (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.013
interventions at the city level (Sharma et al., 2014; Khanna et al., 2011; Pucher et al., 2007). To our knowledge, very few studies on long term analysis of sustainable and low carbon policies and options at a local level exist (Li, 2011; Munshi, 2013).
The objective of the paper was to develop a future low carbon mobility scenario for a city. This work is part of a larger
study for the city including four sectors Buildings, Transport, Industry and Power (IIMA, 2010). For the purpose of this
paper, we focus on the passenger transport sector. Two scenarios are examined (i) Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario and
(ii) a Low Carbon Scenario (LCS). The scenarios span from 2010 to 2035. We use the Extended Snapshot (ExSS) modeling
framework for Ahmedabad city (Gomi et al., 2010). We also attempt to calculate the resulting air quality co-benefits with
respect to PM2.5 and NOx emissions for the different scenarios.
Urban transport in Indian cities
India is experiencing multiple transitions population growth, urbanization and increasing per capita incomes. Presently,
33% of Indias population lives in urban areas. Four hundred million people will be added to Indias cities between 2014 and
2050 taking the share of urban population to 50%. A significant portion of this population will be accommodated in cities
with population over one million. By 2030, India will have seven megacities with populations over 10 million (UN, 2014).
The growth in number and size of cities along with per capita incomes are expected to drive growth in vehicle ownership
and urban passenger travel demand.
Travel demand in cities has been largely met by public transport and non-motorized transport in India (Pucher and
Korattyswaroopam, 2004). However, public transport infrastructure has not kept pace with the increasing demand. As a
result, the share of public transport and non-motorized transport is decreasing with a corresponding increase in the use
of private transport modes. Inadequate infrastructure, population growth, urbanization and increase in incomes have
resulted in a significant increase in vehicle ownership and travel demand. Between 1981 and 2007, the number of vehicles
in India increased from 5.4 million vehicles to 99.6 million (MoEF, 2010). In 2011, India had over 140 million registered
vehicles of which the combined share of two wheelers and four wheelers was 85% (GoI, 2014b).
This has also driven the demand for energy, which is largely met by oil. By 2018, India will surpass Japan as the third
largest oil consuming country globally (IEA, 2014). Three quarters of Indias oil demand is met through imports (GoI,
2011b) and this is expected to increase further. Greater motorization therefore exacerbates issue of national energy security.
Increase in motorization is leading to other externalities including rising emissions of greenhouse gases, local air pollution, congestion and noise. Between 1985 and 2005, CO2 emissions from road transport in India grew at an average rate of
5.7% (Garg et al., 2006). Transport sector is increasingly becoming a major contributor to deteriorating air quality in cities.
Despite several measures to address local air pollution, the rising trend of air pollution in the Indian cities remains a
challenge. Overtime there is a shift in trend as levels of PM10 and NOx are increasing in a number of cities (Shukla et al.,
2015). In an assessment by the Central Pollution Control Board for 164 cities, over 75% of the cities were found with high
or critical levels of PM10 (CPCB, 2012) while more than half of the 164 cities had moderate to critical levels of NOx. Figs. 1
and 2 show ambient PM10 levels and NOx levels in 35 major cities in 2012 (CPCB, 2014).
Transport interventions and co-benefits
By 2025, 45% of Indias population will live in 63 million plus cities (UN, 2014). Growing share of urban population in
cities, increase in the size and number of cities and corresponding increase in income levels is expected to transform urban
transport significantly in future. The pattern of growth of urban transport in future will have significant bearing on GHG
emissions and local impacts including congestion and air pollution (Pathak et al., 2015). Meeting the global 2 C temperature
stabilization targets will require looking at urban transport since this is a growing source of emissions in Indian cities.
PM 10 (g/m3)
300
Naonal Standard
250
200
150
100
50
Hyderabad
Vishakhapatnam
Guwaha
Patna
Chandigarh
Raipur
Delhi
Panaji
Ahmedabad
Rajkot
Surat
Faridabad
Shimla
Jammu
Ranchi
Jamshedpur
Bangalore
Kochi
Bhopal
Indore
Mumbai
Shillong
Aizawl
Dimapur
Bhubneshwar
Amritsar
Puducherry
Jaipur
Jodhpur
Chennai
Kanpur
Lucknow
Noida
Dehradun
Kolkata
Fig. 1. PM10 levels in 35 major Indian cities (lg/m3). Source: CPCB (2014)
Please cite this article in press as: Pathak, M., Shukla, P.R. Co-benefits of low carbon passenger transport actions in Indian cities: Case study
of Ahmedabad. Transport. Res. Part D (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.013
80
NOx (g/m3)
70
Naonal Standard
60
50
40
30
20
10
Hyderabad
Vishakhapatnam
Guwaha
Patna
Chandigarh
Raipur
Delhi
Panaji
Ahmedabad
Rajkot
Surat
Faridabad
Shimla
Jammu
Ranchi
Jamshedpur
Bangalore
Kochi
Bhopal
Indore
Mumbai
Shillong
Aizawl
Dimapur
Bhubneshwar
Amritsar
Puducherry
Jaipur
Jodhpur
Chennai
Kanpur
Lucknow
Noida
Dehradun
Kolkata
Fig. 2. NOx levels in 35 major Indian cities (lg/m3). Source: CPCB (2014)
It is a major concern of developing countries including India that mitigation actions impose costs and quantitative emission reduction targets will adversely affect economic development (Olsen, 2013). It has become necessary therefore, to go
beyond stand-alone low carbon actions and find solutions that can be mainstreamed into existing national and local development policies. This co-benefits approach prioritizes projects that meet immediate development needs while addressing
longer term climate change concerns (IGES, 2010). The co-benefits approach can be applied flexibly to different contexts
allowing this to mainstream climate concerns into transport policy across many levels of development (Portugal-Pereira
et al., 2013). Emerging urban transport best practices in India have led to local benefits of improved air quality, enhanced
mobility and national energy security through reduced dependence on oil (Shukla and Pathak, forthcoming).
Recent national policies and programs of the government of India are increasingly emphasizing the dimension of sustainable development. Indias National Action Plan on Climate Change (2008) emphasizes development and environment objectives in addition to climate change mitigation and adaptation (GoI, 2008). Sustainable transport is a key element outlined by
the National Mission on Sustainable Habitat, a submission under Indias national Action Plan on Climate Change. Some other
related policies and programs include the National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP), Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban
Renewal Mission (JNNURM) (GoI, 2014d), the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) (GoI, 2012b) and the
National Policy on Biofuels (MNRE, 2009). The government of India has recently released a toolkit for preparing a Comprehensive Mobility Plan in cities. The document stresses the importance of climate change and environmental sustainability
and highlights the need to integrate actions in accordance with the National Mission on Sustainable Habitat (GoI, 2014a).
Increasing vehicle growth has resulted in serious local problems of congestion and poor air quality in the city. Between
2008 and 2012, PM10 levels exceeded permissible limits for all five years between 2008 and 2012, exceeding by 3050% the
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (GoI, 2014b). In terms of total emission loads, transport contributed 18% of the total
PM10 emissions in the city in 2010 (Guttikunda and Jawahar, 2012). Data availability for PM2.5 is limited, however recent
studies show that annual PM2.5 standards in Ahmedabad exceed the National standards (Dey et al., 2012; WHO, 2014).
Deteriorating air quality in Ahmedabad has also resulted in serious health concerns including increased mortality and
morbidity, especially affecting the vulnerable populations (Dholakia et al., 2013).
Over the past decade, AMC has implemented several urban transport initiatives in the city. In 2005, the local government
mandated the use of natural gas for all auto rickshaws (three wheelers) to address rising emissions from three-wheelers and
their impact on air quality. The Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS) was introduced in 2009 to promote public transport, to ease
the traffic and reduce the growth of private vehicles. The BRTS now operates a 45 km network and the city plans to augment
this with an additional network of 40 km. Since inception, the ridership of the BRTS has increased from 18,000 trips per day
to 0.1 million trips per day. The city has also initiated planning and construction of two metro corridors spanning 36 kms, the
first phase of which will become operational in 2018 (GoG, 2014b). Fig. 4 shows the existing and proposed corridors for BRTS
and Metro.
Methodology
Framework
We constructed future mobility scenarios for passenger transport in Ahmedabad city with reference to energy use and
CO2 emissions. We explored two alternate future scenarios for Ahmedabad in 2035 the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario
and The Low Carbon Scenario (LCS). For this paper, the base year was 2015 and the target year was taken as 2035.
Population projections for Ahmedabad are made using the growth rates were based on the UN population forecast (UN,
2014) and projections from the municipal authorities. Ahmedabads population is projected to increase from 6.4 million in
2015 to 11.5 million in 2035 (Table 1). The GDP projections for Ahmedabad were scaled using the Indias GDP projection (8%
average between 2007 and 2032) made in the report Integrated Energy Policy (GoI, 2006) released by the Planning Commission, Government of India. Between 2006 and 2011, Indias annual real GDP grew at a rate of 8.4% (GoI, 2012a). The growth
rate of GDP of Gujarat state, wherein Ahmedabad is located is assumed to be higher than Indias GDP due to the dynamic
economy of the state. In the year 2012, Gujarats GDP share was 7% in Indias GDP and Ahmedabads share in Gujarats
GDP was 17%. The future GDP projections for Ahmedabad (Table 1) were made using logistics regression.
Ahmedabad is also expected to undergo a shift in economy away from primary and secondary toward more service oriented economy. The specific inputs to the model about the transitions in the structure of the economy are: share of the primary sector decreases from the current 3.01% to 1.3% in 2035, the share of secondary sector comes down from 67.2% to 59.0%
in 2035. Expectedly, there is an increase in the share of tertiary sector from 29.6% in 2005 to 39.7% in 2035 (IIMA, 2010).
Travel demand
Munshi (2013) has studied the current and future travel demand in relation to built form for the city. A detailed study of
travel patterns was carried out for the Ahmedabad Metrorail project. Table 2 shows comparative data for travel characteristics including trip rate, trip length and share of different modes travel pattern from earlier studies in Ahmedabad. Current
mix shows a sizeable share of public transport and non-motorized transport. Private transport including two-wheelers meets
a third of the total travel demand in the city. The first three studies in Table 2 are recent and agree on the reported trip rates
and mode shares.
Travel demand for the city was calculated using the following equation.
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Car
Two-wheeler
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
where TD = Total Travel Demand in Ahmedabad in a year, Pop = population, TR = Trip Rate, ATD = Average Travel Distance.
Please cite this article in press as: Pathak, M., Shukla, P.R. Co-benefits of low carbon passenger transport actions in Indian cities: Case study
of Ahmedabad. Transport. Res. Part D (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.013
Fig. 4. Map of Ahmedabad city showing existing and proposed BRTS and metrorail corridors. Source: AUDA (2015), AUDA (2013b), and GoG (2014a).
In addition to the rapid population growth, increase in size and structure of the economy, Ahmedabad is also experiencing
an increase in physical area. A study using spatial analytical models showed that the city though relatively compact in 2001,
is gradually dispersing and is expected to disperse further in future (Adhvaryu, 2011). This will affect the distances between
Please cite this article in press as: Pathak, M., Shukla, P.R. Co-benefits of low carbon passenger transport actions in Indian cities: Case study
of Ahmedabad. Transport. Res. Part D (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.013
Indicator
2015
2025
2035
Population (millions)
GDP (billion INR)a
GDP per capita (000 INR)a
6.3
305
55
8.5
1274
149
11.5
3957
361
2005 prices.
Table 2
Travel characteristics for Ahmedabad from different studies.
a
b
Parameter
GoG (2014a)
Munshi (2013)
AUDA (2013b)
MoUD (2008)a
Trip length
Trip rate
Modal share
Private
Public
Non-motorized
Intermediate public transport
6.6
1.44
4.08
1.8b
5.5
1.5
6.1
1.41
30%
11.4%
46.2%
6%
33.1%
12.3%
44%
7.8%
30%
12%
46%
6%
42%
16%
36%
6%
work, home and other travel destinations resulting in an increase in the length of the trips. In 2035, Ahmedabad will continue to have a significant proportion of working age population contributing to a high share of work trips. The mobility patterns of citizens in future will also be influenced by a higher proportion of leisure trips and higher participation of women in
employment.
Dhar and Shukla (2014) show that trip length in Indian cities will increase in future due to higher vehicle ownership and
increase in city size (Dhar and Shukla, 2014). Other studies in Ahmedabad have shown an increase in trip lengths and trip
rates for Ahmedabad (IIMA, 2010; Munshi, 2013). These studies inform the base year assumptions for trip rate and mode
share for our study. We have assumed a trip rate of 2.1 and trip length of 9.4 kms for 2035. This study aggregates passenger
transport demands for residents of Ahmedabad city. The modeling framework does not include spatial analysis of traffic
flows.
The low carbon scenario in this paper is based on the Back-casting approach (Ashina et al., 2010; Fujino et al., 2008).
Based on local and national policies and targets, a desirable goal is set for the target year and pathways to achieve it are
sought thereafter. Such disaggregated assessments facilitate analysis using context specific inputs thereby articulating benefits explicitly and delivering more realistic roadmaps (Kainuma et al., 2012). Innovative back casting approaches have been
applied to assess sustainable urban scenarios- for sectoral studies to show how these can influence future decisions and
guide toward option planning and developing roadmaps (Zimmermann et al., 2011).
Each scenario is modeled in four steps. First, quantitative projections of exogenous scenario drivers, e.g. GDP and population, are selected to suit the qualitative storyline of a scenario. Second, these projections are downscaled, e.g. to sector or
region level, using the sector or regional databases. For instance, for the analysis in this paper, the GDP is scaled down to GVA
(gross value added) for industrial, commercial, transport, agriculture and allied sectors using logistics regression (Shukla
et al., 2004). Third, the locale specific data like trip length, trip rates and vehicle occupancy are collected using local surveys.
The trends of these parameters are projected following the future scenario storyline. Fourth, the technical data, e.g. vehicle
energy efficiency and emissions co-efficient, is similarly collected using the surveys and informed from national and global
projections. Their future trends are projected on basis of the announced policies in the short-run and the expert opinion in
the long-run. This four step process, in brief, converts the qualitative story of a scenario into a quantitative modeling database for the scenario. The data preparation methodology, including inputoutput analysis, is adopted from Gomi et al.
(2010).
take macro (e.g. national) level countermeasures (e.g. policies) as exogenous (Gomi et al., 2010). The model follows the
what-if paradigm to assess the implications of exogenous countermeasures. The selection of modes is exogenous. However,
the model can support policymakers to make informed choice of modal split by following the what-if process in which the
socio-economic and environmental implications of different modal splits are readily assessed by the model. Fig. 5 shows the
structure of the ExSS Model, consisting of seven blocks with input parameters, exogenous variables and variables between
modules. ExSS is a static model and includes a system of simultaneous equations. Given a set of exogenous variables and
parameters, solution is uniquely defined for one year.
The macroeconomic data and assumptions on activity data from scenario quantification are used to calculate future
energy demand and the corresponding GHG emissions for the target year under both scenarios. Since the model calculates
emission reduction delivered by each counter measure, it allows for identifying which actions have the highest mitigation
potential in 2035.
Scenario storylines
Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario
The business-as-usual scenario reflects the continuity of past trends. The technology assumptions and policies of the base
case include the future economic development of the city along the conventional path. The scenario assumes an increase in
travel demand described in the section above with an increasing share of private motorized transport. Other assumptions on
Government spending
Export
Import rao
Labour producvity
Commung OD
Number of
workers
Labour Component
Labour
demand
Macroeconomy and
industry
Working
me
Private
consumpon
output
Populaon and
households
Income
No. of
households
Populaon
Break up of
consumpon
Commercial
Building
Component
Floor area
per output
Transport
Populaon
Per capita trip rate
Average trip length
Mode shares
Component
Energy Demand
GHG
emissions
Energy eciency
Energy service demand
per driving force
Fuel mix
Emission factors
Component
Exogenous
variables and
parameters
Main
endoogenous
variables
input
Flow of endogenous
variables
Fig. 5. Overview of the ExSS model. Source: Adapted from Gomi et al. (2010)
Please cite this article in press as: Pathak, M., Shukla, P.R. Co-benefits of low carbon passenger transport actions in Indian cities: Case study
of Ahmedabad. Transport. Res. Part D (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.013
the future BAU were based on information from the City Development Plans, government estimates/projections about socioeconomic conditions, land use changes outlined in the development plan of AUDA (AUDA, 2013a) and expert discussions.
Currently, most of the non-motorized trips are preferred by people from the lower income groups. Due to income transition
in future, the share of non-motorized trips is expected to decrease with a corresponding increase in motorized transport. The
share of car use will increase with increase in incomes. The expansion of BRTS and introduction of Metro and land use
changes as outlined in the earlier section will increase the share of public transport. However, based on current trends in
growth rate of vehicle ownership, particularly the increasing share of private vehicles, the dependence on private vehicles
will not reduce in BAU.
In line with global trends, car occupancy rates are expected to decline in future. Evidence shows declining vehicle
occupancy in UK (Kwon, 2005), US (Schipper et al., 2010) and several other developed countries. In US, average car
occupancy declined from 2 passengers per vehicle in 1969 to slightly over 1.5 in 2001 (Schipper et al., 2010). A survey in
European countries reported an average occupancy of 1.8 passengers per vehicle in Eastern European countries and 1.54
for countries in Western Europe (EEA, 2010). Current vehicle occupancy in India is 2.5 for cars, 1.5 for two wheelers, 2 for
autorickshaws and 50 for buses (Reddy and Balachandran, 2010). Income and demographic changes will influence future
vehicle occupancy in Ahmedabad. The household size in Indian cities is expected to decrease in future from 5.1 persons
per household in 2005 to 4.3 in 2035, mainly due to increase in nuclear families and single person households (Dhar
et al., 2013). There will be higher vehicle ownership per household. As a result, vehicle occupancy in BAU reduce to 2 for
cars, 1.3 for two wheelers, 1.6 for autorickshaws and 40 for buses in 2035.
In 2010, the average fuel economy for Indian cars was 14.5 kms/l. The prescribed norms under consideration by the
Government of India envision a fuel efficiency of 21 kms/lby 2021 (GoI, 2014a). However, due to existing stock of old cars,
fuel efficiency of 17.8 kms/l will be achieved in 2035 in BAU.
For this scenario, technology assumptions were taken from Dhar and Shukla (2014). CO2 intensity of electricity will
decline in BAU due to increasing share of low carbon sources including natural gas and renewables (CEA, 2011). Policies
on alternate fuels and vehicles will allow for limited penetration of these in BAU. For instance, the National Policy on Biofuels
has suggested a target of 20% blend in gasoline and diesel by 2017 in order to enhance energy security. The share of ethanol
blended gasoline in the car segment will increase in both BAU and LCS. Similarly, there is penetration of biodiesel buses from
2025 onwards (MNRE, 2009). Electric three wheelers have been successfully operating in Delhi. This penetration was triggered by favorable economics offered by these vehicles. This trend is expected to be followed in other cities. The government
of India has recently announced the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan to encourage greater penetration of electric vehicles (GoI, 2012). However, the BAU scenario does not include specific investment into charging infrastructures. Therefore,
penetration of electric vehicles happens in all segments (two wheelers, autorickshaws, cars and buses), however the share
does not exceed 5% for any of the modes in 2035, except for electric three-wheelers which take up a 7% share in the target
year.
Incentives for electric vehicles facilitate higher penetration of these in LCS leading to a higher share of electricity going
into the transport sector. The share of cars with ethanol blended gasoline increases to 5.5% in 2025 and 13.3% in LCS in
2035. In line with the socio-economic changes in the LCS, the scenario puts forward expectations regarding sustainable
behavior. These include higher vehicle occupancy, substitution of trips through ICT and greater share of non-motorized trips.
The LCS scenario also assumes improved governance and innovative financing mechanisms that will facilitate the smooth
implementation of these actions.
Local pollutants
The Auto Fuel Policy Vision 2025 of the Government of India outlines a future vehicle and fuel efficiency roadmap for the
country. The roadmap proposes 63 cities to move to Bharat Stage (BS) IV by the end of 2015 followed by the rest of the
country by April 2017 (GoI, 2014c). This will be followed by phased implementation of Euro V and Euro VI norms by
2020 and 2024 respectively. The LC scenario envisages earlier penetration of advanced vehicle technologies and cleaner
fuels. Therefore, emission coefficients in the LCS scenario are lower than BAU scenario.
We estimated the air quality benefits that would accrue from these in both scenarios. Using the energy use and fuel share
results in the target year, we have calculated the levels of PM2.5 and NOx for the base year, and the year 2035 for BAU and LCS
scenarios. In BAU Scenario, emission norms follow the recommendations of the Auto Fuel Policy Vision government of India
2025. The coefficients for the LCS are in line with the values in the Sustainable Transport Scenario of the Low Carbon
Comprehensive Mobility Plan Toolkit (GoI, 2014a).
Results
Travel demand and mode shares
In BAU, passenger transport demand will double by 2025 and increase to over four times from 18 billion passenger kms to
74 billion passenger kms in 2035. The key drivers for this increase are population growth, demographic changes, economic
activity and increasing per capita income and growth in spatial area of Ahmedabad.
Recently, the city has announced plans for increasing density on selected corridors in order to facilitate transit oriented
development. These will facilitate more compact development and reduce travel demand. In line with socio-economic transitions in the LCS scenario, higher vehicle occupancy and greater share of non-motorized transport further bring down the
travel demand in the LCS scenario. The share of car use increases more steeply in BAU scenario compared to LCS scenario.
Future plans for expansion of BRTS and introduction of metrorail will significantly influence the mode share in both the scenarios, however, the share is higher in LCS. Public transport shares in our study command 33% of the total travel demand in
2035 in LCS scenario. These are close to the AUDA projections that estimate a share of 37% of trips by public transport in 2031
(AUDA, 2013a). Fig. 6 shows the share of different modes in the base year, 2025 and 2035 for BAU and LCS.
Energy demand and CO2 emissions
Concurrent to the increase in travel demand, the demand for energy in BAU will increase 4.4 times. Energy efficiency
improves in all modes in BAU demanding less fuel per unit travel. The growth rate of energy demand in BAU grows in parallel
with the travel demand implying that transport will continue to remain energy intensive in future. One of the reasons is the
penetration of high energy models, especially in the car segment. Other reasons include shift to from non-motorized to
motorized means of transport, and decrease in vehicle occupancy rates compared to base year. Reduced travel demand,
higher share of trips served by public transport, walking, and cycling, and improved fuel economy, bring down energy
demand by 47% in LCS 2035 compared to BAU.
BAU
LCS
100%
100%
Metro
Metro
80%
80%
Bus
60%
Non motorized
Auto Rickshaw
40%
Bus
60%
Non motorized
Auto Rickshaw
40%
Car
Car
20%
Two wheelers
0%
20%
Two wheelers
0%
2015
2025
2035
2015
2025
2035
Fig. 6. Modal shares of passenger travel demand in BAU and LCS scenarios (%).
Please cite this article in press as: Pathak, M., Shukla, P.R. Co-benefits of low carbon passenger transport actions in Indian cities: Case study
of Ahmedabad. Transport. Res. Part D (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.013
10
60
50
40
Biofuel
30
Electricity
Natural Gas
20
Oil
10
0
BAU
2015
LCS
2025
BAU
LCS
2035
4.5
Sustainable behaviour
Energy Eency
Million Tons
3.5
Penetraon of Biofuel
3
Penetraon of Electric Vehicles
2.5
Shi to public transport
2
Reducon in service demand
1.5
decarbonizaon of electricity
1
0.5
CO2 emissions
0
BAU
2015
LCS
2035
Analysis of energy mix (Fig. 7) shows that oil will continue to dominate as an energy source for passenger transport in
both scenarios. Introduction of electric vehicles, biodiesel buses and cars running on ethanol blended gasoline result in substitution of oil with biofuel and electricity. Overall, the combined share of biofuel and electricity in BAU is less than 10% of
the total energy demand. Government policies and incentives facilitate greater penetration of alternate fuels and vehicles in
LCS. As a result, the combined share of biofuel and electricity makes up a quarter of the total energy demand in this scenario.
This leads to a reduction in oil demand of 523 ktoe in LCS from BAU in 2035.
CO2 emissions increase over four times in BAU reaching nearly 4 million tons by 2035 (Fig. 8). Introduction of counter
measures in the low carbon scenario bring down the total CO2 emissions to 2 million tons in 2035. The key actions that
reduce emissions in the LCS scenario include reduced travel demand, a shift to public transport and non-motorized transport,
fuel switch from oil to biofuel and electricity (for private vehicles, buses and metro), and decarbonization of electricity.
Switching to alternate fuels and vehicles and decarbonization of electricity bring about the largest reduction in CO2 emissions. Mode shift to public transport and reduced travel demand from urban planning interventions has the next significant
impact. Since a significant energy efficiency impact is happens in BAU scenario, the impact of energy efficiency measures in
LCS scenario is not as significant as other measures.
Air quality
Emissions of PM2.5 from passenger transport rise significantly in BAU (43% in 2035 from 2015 levels) (Fig. 9). In LCS, PM2.5
levels from passenger transport come down by half in 2025 and by one fifth in 2035 compared to BAU levels. Similarly, NOx
levels from passenger transport increase to 7000 tons in BAU 2035, four times the levels in 2015. In LCS, NOx emissions are
42% lower in 2025 and 73% lower in 2035 compared to corresponding BAU levels (Fig. 9). The main reasons for reduced
emissions in the LCS are 1. Improvement in vehicle technologies and efficiencies which is reflected in improved emission
factors, 2. Increase in share of natural gas especially in buses and earlier penetration biofuel and electric vehicles and, 3. Shift
to public transport and non-motorized transport.
Please cite this article in press as: Pathak, M., Shukla, P.R. Co-benefits of low carbon passenger transport actions in Indian cities: Case study
of Ahmedabad. Transport. Res. Part D (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.013
11
PM 2.5 Emissions
NOx Emissions
35000
8000
30000
7000
6000
5000
20000
BAU
15000
LCS
Tons
Tons
25000
BAU
4000
LCS
3000
10000
2000
5000
1000
0
2015
2025
2035
2015
2025
2035
12
energy savings and reducing congestion costs. This also brings in opportunities for cities and national governments to leverage international climate funds (Bakker and Huizenga, 2010). The Delhi metro is a successful example in the Indian context.
As the first urban rail CDM project in the world, it is also a revolutionary project for the country having registered two successful projects under CDM (DMRC, 2014). Such projects also provide a good opportunity for technology cooperation among
developed and developing countries. For instance, the DMRC project was facilitated by support from the Japanese
government.
Globally, several cities have initiated sustainable transport actions as funded Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
(NAMAs). Recent ongoing funded NAMAs include low carbon mobility plans in cities (Medan, Menado, Batam), proposals for
demand management and improving public transport (Jakarta) or preparing comprehensive mobility plans to increase share
of NMT and public transport (Belo Horizonte) (UNEP DTU, 2014).
Currently, India has not registered transport projects under NAMAs. Projects that require additional finance can take up
early opportunities and can be considered for support under climate finance. This will propel urban infrastructure projects
and avoid high carbon and adverse lock-ins. This study also shows the mitigation potential of BRTS and Metro. Ahmedabad
has the opportunity to project these as significant low carbon options to catalyze funds and speed up implementation. Similarly, several Indian cities have planned high investment transport projects including metro, BRTS and busways. The availability of funding can catalyze these transitions and bring in local benefits of improved air quality and reduced congestion. As
BRTS and metro systems use lower energy per capita, this also contributes to the national benefit of improved energy security. Energy security is an important national objective that cities can contribute to by reducing the dependence for energy
from imports. Local impacts including reduced air pollution, congestion and noise are other benefits in the short and medium
term that can also improve the quality of life in cities.
Conclusion
Urbanization, income growth and consequent motorization are persistent trends that Indian cities will witness in the
immediate and medium term. The challenge of achieving this growth with lower greenhouse gas emissions is significant.
In this paper we analyzed future low carbon transport roadmap for Ahmedabad city. The case of Ahmedabad reflects the
issues of large growing cities in India where the future travel demand will result in significant GHG and air pollutant emissions. The analysis highlights that pursuit of the global mitigation target for a 2 C scenario will require significant interventions well beyond the policies, infrastructure and efficiency improvements in BAU. This calls for increasing capacity of
national and local governments to leverage climate finance, ensure a good governance and regulatory mechanism for project
delivery and finally strengthen monitoring and verification to ensure desired outcomes.
The case study also highlights the significant mitigation potential possible from early interventions. Low carbon transport
policies at the city level can deliver sizeable co-benefits at multiple scales. At the local level, bringing in low carbon policies
and infrastructures early will result in reduction of air pollutant emissions and consequent health benefits. A reduced dependence on private transport in a low carbon city delivers national benefits of energy security from reduced dependence on oil.
And finally, national and global targets cannot be met without the contribution of cities.
Our modeling analysis shows that despite the improvement in vehicle efficiency, cleaner fuel norms and expansion of
public transport infrastructure, CO2 emissions continue to increase in the BAU scenario. A parallel increase is seen in
PM2.5 and NOx emissions. As travel demand will continue to depend on oil in the BAU scenario, this imposes serious national
energy security challenges. The Ahmedabad case study brings out three significant insights for Indian cities. First, the policies
in the business-as-usual development are inadequate for meeting global mitigation targets. Second, significant opportunities
exist for cities to decarbonize passenger transport. Third, early interventions can prevent carbon intensive infrastructure and
behavioral lock-ins and deliver significant environmental and health co-benefits from improved air quality. In implementing
these, cities have the opportunity to leverage international climate finance in the form of NAMAs or other similar
instruments.
The successful transition to low carbon mobility pathways for cities rests on five key pillars mitigation targets, resilient
and adaptive infrastructure, technologies, finance and enabling policies by the national and subnational governments. The
low carbon mobility assessments for Indian cities have been rare for two key reasons. First, the low carbon policies and
action plans in India have primarily remained with the national government. Second, low carbon actions were viewed as
adding to costs, in the absence of a perspective to align these actions with long-term development agenda and the lack of
methods to delineate low carbon actions that deliver development co-benefits such as the improved urban air quality
and energy security. The quantitative assessment for a large city in India, Ahmedabad, has exemplified the use of scenarios
framework and modeling methodology.
The paper has shown that low carbon actions, when aligned to development agenda, shall deliver sizable development
co-benefits, besides, presenting the cities with opportunities to leverage the project finance from international climate
finance instruments. This can be an important factor for inducing actions from the local governments. The identification
of Sustainable Habitat mission under the Indias NAPCC shows the importance of the role of cities in climate change actions.
This mission, coordinated by the Ministry of Urban Development as the nodal ministry, is motivating cities to develop sustainable and low carbon mobility plans. The methodology and application in this paper, it is hoped, shall be useful for the
policymakers engaged in preparing the low carbon mobility plans for their city.
Please cite this article in press as: Pathak, M., Shukla, P.R. Co-benefits of low carbon passenger transport actions in Indian cities: Case study
of Ahmedabad. Transport. Res. Part D (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.013
13
Acknowledgements
The research for this paper was supported from UNEP project Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India which was
funded by the German government (BMU) under the International Climate Initiative and by the Environment Research
and Technology Development Fund (S-12-2) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.
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